Should we still fear Coronavirus ?
mark94
Arizona
1. There is now a 45 minute test for Coronavirus using equipment already in place at most hospitals. The supplies needed for this test will start rolling out in about a week.
2. Early research and small sample tests suggest that Chloroquine can significantly benefit patients with CoVid. Larger sample tests are already underway in Wuhan and elsewhere.
So, in a matter of weeks, there will be a quick way of determining whether someone has the bug and a good chance of inexpensive treatment to shorten the period of sickness, reduce severity of the illness, and improve the mortality.
Given all this, does it still make sense to have everyone shelter in place ? Maybe people over 60 should practice social distance for another month and let everyone else get back to their lives.
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NO
On Thursday, the president said that there had been positive results after doctors trialed chloroquine on COVID-19 patients, and suggested the drug could be a 'game-changer'.
'It's shown very, very encouraging early results. We're going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. It's been approved,' Trump said.
However, a few hours later Fauci told CNN: 'There's no magic drug for coronavirus right now'.
'Let me put it into perspective for the viewers .. there has been anecdotal non-proven data that it [chloroquine] works... but when you have an uncontrolled trial you can never definitely say that it works'. "
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article…
Fauci actually did say that there is anecdotal evidence that chloroquine helps, and evidence that using it with a common antibiotic is beneficial. He also said that testing is underway. Where the media is having a field day is when Fauci qualifies his endorsement with a "we won't know for sure until test prove the results" statement.
Right or wrong, most media outlets really, really, hate Trump. They won't even let a global apocalypse get in the way of saying bed things about Trump!
The number of cases says more about the number of tests being performed rather than the number infected. For example, in China they sent most people home without testing. There were millions more infected than reported. In Japan, they don’t seem to be testing. The suspicion is that there are many more infected than official numbers would reflect. In South Korea, they have been aggressively testing, so they saw a surge in reported cases as testing ramped up.
The American people want decisive leaders who jump into action when threats appear.
What they don’t like are whining weasels, like the so-called journalists and most career politicians, who grandstand with their clever criticism.
The coronavirus press conferences have become unwatchable, not because of the team presenting but because of the petty, clueless, snarky questions from self-anointed journalists.
Sounds extreme but less extreme than what's happening
The precautions are highly warranted and justified, but we will look back on this and laugh at how much we over reacted. The overreaction by media is somewhat necessary, considering we have so many stupid people who fail to use critical thinking.
That’s why the 45 minute test is going to be so helpful. It will screen out 90% of the fearful people who would otherwise take a hospital bed.
It gives them a good excuse not to service their established customer base with the added comfort of knowing their competition is also shutdown.
Past two weeks though, there will be increasing social unrest as revenue drys.
I suspect businesses will soon start to openly defy closure orders.
The real risk is the number of people that will die because the hospitals cannot provide adaquate care.
This is a totally different number then the number of people that will inevatibly get the virus and sucommb regardless of treatment.
Anyone speaking in the terms will be skeward.
1. Working at least 15 hours a week (hopefully it will be easier to get employed if certified “past it”)
2. Some form of community service related to Covid related chaos for at least 5 hours a week.
Just a random thought that popped into my head. Bad idea or good idea? 🤔
I had similar thoughts early in that if it got bad enough the medical system would ask for volunteers to assist from thos who already had time to build an immunity to it. They can theoretically test those volunteers right there as proof they are immune.
Whst you are saying sounds reasonable. The hard part is administrating what you are proposing from desperate people posing as immune. How would they execute such a mass program on a reliable controlled manner.
Back in the day, parents used to hold chicken pox parties to infect their kids and make them immune to getting infected as an adult. Seriously, it really was a thing.
Rick, I'll put whatever is left of my 401k to take that bet. In fact, it's the reverse, neighbors are beginning to politely, and in a friendly way talk to neighbors about "you shouldn't be out". I expect in a week - two tops - the discussions won't be as gentle or polite. With the support of most people, the police are going to formally start enforcing the shutdown (on businesses only at first, I imagine). You're 180 degrees from what's actually going to happen. Especially as we the numbers we're already seeing -- 20% of hospitalizations are people 20-44 -- continue coming in, and people realize no one is safe if the hospitals are past capacity. Yes, some teenagers will try to find ways around it, but the community in general will be MORE invested, not less, in a week. I'm more than willing to come back to this thread in a week and admit I'm an idiot if I'm wrong. You?
Yup. Anyone here over 40 has probably had it. It was pretty harmless to most children except for those infernal itchy pox, but far more serious for grown adults. So parents made damned sure that their kids went through it and developed an immunity as early as possible outside of baby years. I got it from a cousin who was invited over specifically because she had it.
Heck, the young are already chafing at the restrictions and nobody is buying the notion that this is just as deadly to young people, however much politicos try to sell it. They will soon be followed by parents who are growing tired of having their children stuck in the house for weeks on end. Then there are those who absolutely must find some way to earn money. Then there are...
But ok, we shall see...
I wish Rick were right, but I know in my heart that's not gonna be the case. We won't be able to waltz into strip clubs with pockets bulging full of cash and bad intentions anytime soon(shout out RHB).
As a matter of fact in a couple of weeks I think all those folks that started hoarding canned goods, frozen foods, and pasta will be closer to being able to say 'I told you so'.
We will see......
Let's reconvene in three weeks and see who was right.
To be clear TFP, I'm not saying that state and local governments are going to let up anytime soon. I'm saying that people subject to these order are going to find other ways to socialize and earn money. IMHO a lockdown like this is simply not sustainable for any length of time in a country as vast and diverse as this.
Agreed.
While I strongly support the curve-flattening, I also think this can't go on forever, or even for months. Here's an interesting perspective on other actions to be taken: https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flatt…
For now, I think I'll take the kids to the beach. Then later I'll let them play outside with the other neighborhood kids, which is basically a nightly ritual 'round these parts once the heat of the day subsides. The young gotta' keep living, even if the old are rightly huddled in their homes in fear.
"GameStop Instructs Employees to Ignore Law Enforcement And Not Shut Down - VICE"
https://www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/p…
The info on Chloroquine spread like a virus starting from the medical pre-print servers and was picked up by amateurs. Until randomized clinical trials are done, take it with a GRAIN OF SALT.
...aLthough, I'm hoping the @OP will self-medicate and get back to us with the results.
It's a 'win-win'. Many will get infected and survive with no symptoms or very mild symptoms. They'll get a shot of imaginary testosterone. They'll be able to boast that they confronted imaginary fears and survived. They were right and the 'normies' were wrong.
OTOH, up to 2-3% may die ridding the overall population of dangerously compromised individuals.
Encourage disobedience and help make some impaired folks feel like they make a difference again.
/sarcasm/
I see many folks around me keeping at home, and taking walks when the temperatures are warm and the sun is out, and that’s good.
But when folks blatantly ignore the directives, that can hurt everyone. I’m not attempting to make a racist or defamatory statement, but religion is not a reason to thumb one’s nose at these lockdowns.
Yes, all predictions point to the health system being overrun as-is and the need for a lot more beds, ventilators, etc. If Rick's prediction comes true, that will be triply true in areas where people are ignoring the lockdown orders. With 20% of hospitalizations being in the 22-44 age range, a lot of people who think their symptoms will be mild will get a shock. At least in big cities, over the next week or two, I expect we'll see more of these transitions from "law enforcement issues warnings" to "law enforcement issues citations"; and stories of lack of hospital beds perhaps waking some folks up
Maybe that's where it's best to stay put till this blows over - particularly at your age
+ testing is still hard to come by - seems most people that wanna get tested can't and seems for now they wanna limit testing mostly to 65+ and healthcare workers
+ more testing is not necessarily gonna make things that much better - in part it will show that's it's worse than the current #s indicate
+ AFAIK no country has turned-the-corner on this
Hopefully this can be nipped-in-the-bud soon, but I'm not convinced and it seems it may take longer than people want/expect
That’s sort of right but not the whole picture. The real time mortality rates don’t tell the full picture since the pandemic is ongoing and were not even to the steep part of the infection curve. Yes, more tests = more cases and also = what looks like a declining mortality rate with a larger denominator. (Deaths/total cases) The issue is that we don’t know how many of the active cases will die, so the numerator and denominator are measuring one point in time, when they actually need to measure a period in time over the whole pandemic to really tell us anything. The key figures we should be looking at are the fully healed numbers, and even they will take a while to emerge.
Though I question whether most folks will even tolerate a full second month. The economic devastation that these shutdowns are causing could be incalculable and linger for several years.
I somehow suspect that the final numbers would be a small fraction of that. But at some point there is going to need to be a calculus done, perhaps on a state by state level. Cuomo is talking about 9 months now, which is simply unimaginable from an economic standpoint. Our GDP is 5 times the size of the annual federal budget. Consumer spending is 70% of the GDP. The federal government simply cannot sustain the economy and any serious attempt to do so will saddle future generations with a massive burden.
The last numbers I saw was ~20% of hospitalizations are under age 44 (specifically the 20-44 group). As long as there are beds and ventilators -- which is what we're trying to buy time for -- the urgency will stay lower. Once we end up where Italy is, not enough ventilators for everyone who needs one, and they're triaging who will live or die, people perhaps get more serious. It's a race to see which condition we reach first.
I suspect that the standards for hospitalization will tighten as this moves forward. I strongly suspect that most of those under 44 folks in the hospital are not on ventilators.
There's an interesting tension here regarding the lockdown. People flocked to hiking trails and beaches over the weekend. The state and local governments have responded by closing them. The locals around those popular destinations have responded by putting up signs "Go home!" "If you don't live here, leave, you're putting us at risk", etc. Perhaps a sign there's anger among those locals that's slowly boiling
I would reference Trump's tweet (in all caps) this morning.
Also the below op ed (yes from Fox) for starters.
https://youtu.be/BA4LI0Ok988
Patience is running out.
That's just a guess, though. Until then, you shouldn't go around saying people under 60 have little to fear. We have no idea how much of that 20% is due to underlying illness, and no idea how many are on ventilators. All of that is with patchy preliminary data from the CDC, and not all the data had age numbers attached, so this was just from data that did. Point is, you and I know fuckall about where the numbers will go, but preliminary data is that those under 60 are not skating. Same data said those over 65 were 53 percent of ICU admissions, which leaves a good chunk for those younger.
On Thursday, the journal Nature Medicine reported findings out of the University of Hong Kong that the death rate in China’s Wuhan province, where the disease originated, was 1.4%. That’s several percentage points lower than previous estimates, and far below the World Health Organization’s horrifying pronouncement in early March of a 3.4% death rate.
The Hong Kong researchers also found that the risk of dying was heavily concentrated among older people. For those over 64, the fatality rate was 2.4%. For those under 64, it dropped to 0.5%. For those younger than 15, the researchers found the fatality rate was zero.
I'll say it again: you, and I, and even the experts who actually study this stuff, don't know the full picture yet. What we do know is that based on incomplete CDC data, 47% of ICU admissions were under 65, 20% of hospital admissions were 22-44.
So, should the entire population be locked down in their houses for weeks or months, or should we just protect those who are truly at risk of dying, the chronically ill and over-60s ?
Do you think Florida should institute a lockdown to halt the spread of COVID-19?
68%
Yes
15%
No
18%
Something less than a total lockdown
14967 Responses
I think the majority is for a lockdown I hope it doesn’t happen
Sorry -- meant to say, they are not at very low risk of serious illness. The preliminary data, as I said, shows risk of hospitalization and ICU admission that no one would consider "very low risk". If that data changes as more comes in, I'll retract that.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/report-chin…
It seems the virus is fairly contagious - the more contact among people, the more it will spread and one would think this will increase the chances that it will get more into the vulnerable population - I'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be a middle of ground of "young people should just go and live their lives" - it seems it's a case of trying to eradicate it, or having it get out of control - there may not be a middle-ground.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
Hopefully, just for a short time. I absolutely positively believe we need to move to a position where we get people back working and just socially distance everyone vulnerable ASAP. But there's no such thing as that if the hospitals are overwhelmed (and if the health system breaks down, ANY trip to the hospital will become a crapshoot). A few weeks of lockdown to ramp up hospital beds, ventilator production, smooth the curve so the health system doesn't otherwise get overwhelmed -- basically do everything we can to not end up looking like Italy does -- is the one way we know of to achieve this.
If one just Googles "New York Coronavirus" you'll get other articles confirming the #s - e.g.;
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
https://nyti.ms/3aeD35c
https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-corona…
... haven't heard from @Mark94 lately.
She said we know from China and South Korea that the cycle of infection in a region takes about 8-10 weeks. In the US, the infection cycle in Washington is about 2 weeks ahead of New York.
Reading between the lines, the next approach will not be too different from the tongue-in-cheek approach that I suggested above.
As good as he is, I think Fauci was setting these expectations. Dr Birx doesn’t have that bureaucratic defense mechanism.
Seems similar to what Taiwan and South Korea did- 2 countries with successful containment record without mandating onerous restrictions on it's own citizens.
Yup but "ordered" no advised. He went on to threaten legal consequences for those who don't follow the quarantine order.
www.axios.com
... haven't heard from @Mark94 lately.“
The man ingested chloroquine phosphate, which is used for cleaning pools. The medicine for malaria is hydrochloroquine. Not the same.
There, now you’ve heard from me.
"Chloroquine phosphate is in a class of drugs called antimalarials and amebicides. It is used to prevent and treat malaria. "
Nice try.
Dr. Daniel Brooks, medical director of the Banner Poison and Drug Information Center, said that the aquarium additive that the couple ingested has the same active ingredients as the anti-malaria drug. However, the formula activated differently than the prescription, Alexis Kramer-Ainza, spokesperson for Banner Health, told BuzzFeed News, making them seriously ill.
Kramer-Ainza confirmed that the couple took the additive because they most likely read about chloroquine online
Eat fish tank cleaner, get sick and die. Not be given a prescription drug under the direction of medical professional, so Orange Man Bad.
Is Arizona the new Florida?
“Dr. Vladimir Zelenko of NY has treated more than 500 patients with Hydroxychloroquine and has had zero deaths, zero hospitalizations, and zero intubations. He personally witnessed patient difficulty in breathing improve in 4 hours.”
The federal govt should implement a simple point system for whether someone should return to work based on their age and health. Younger adults with no health issues could return to work immediately. Others would continue to isolate depending on the spread of the virus in their community.
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.
It's pretty clear that the FL Governor is not going to issue one statewide and he shouldn't. It is simply not growing much in the vast majority of Florida counties, many suspect due to inhospitable climate conditions. The numbers are growing a bit faster in a SE FL and around Tampa, but even in those place it is arithmetic rather than exponential and likely due mostly to a shit ton more tests being conducted. There is simply no reason to believe that we are facing the same issues swamping the much colder and population dense NY right now - in fact the slow growth suggests otherwise.
Yet every single new positive test result brings more howls from Dems in those more affected areas. The truth is that they have the power to do it themselves for their regions, but they are shameless cowards who want the political cover of a statewide ban. Fuck 'em. How the fuck do you tell a bunch of people in counties all over Florida that they can't pay their bills when their areas have few or even no cases, even after several weeks?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article…
Yup. Almost all the new cases are popping up in two counties, both of which are major destinations for New Yorkers.
What have you seen that makes you think the virus was transferred to humans by consumption? I’m certainly no doctor but has that ever happened? Outside of The Walking Dead anyway.
So, either Trump is right or De Blasio is right. I guess we’ll see.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia…
... contradicting leading scientific authorities Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham.
Annual STD cases: 2.4 Million
Cumulative CoVid 19 infections: 450,000
My aunt (who's in her 60s like my dad, but she is overweight so probably some underlying health issues), is currently hospitalized after having typical COVID 19 symptoms; her test results came back positive. They have been keeping her on oxygen the last few days and she texted our family to keep us updated saying they're leaning towards a ventilator.
Worst part? She is the caretaker of my adopted uncle who has Down Syndrome and other health issues (had a stroke which put him into a coma for a while several months ago). He has tested positive as well and is literally dying in the hospital. His heart stopped, no one is allowed to visit him of course except for one family member to say goodbye. My aunt has no idea he even has it, as we don't want to tell her until she is recovered.
We're on lockdown, so obviously we won't even be able to give him a proper funeral. I just found out about my uncle today so it's been a rough one.
Fuck anyone saying this isn't a big deal or making light of this. It IS a big deal, especially for high risk people who healthy folks like myself could unknowingly spread it to.
And with her being his caretaker after my grandparents passed, he lives with her and he was closer to her than anyone else. She will be devastated. My heart is breaking not just for my uncle, but for her. She cares about him so much.
Fuck this :(
Then we may need to cordon off Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Hillsborough counties. If NYC is any lesson, those folks will likely start running for better locations if things get too bad where they are. I live in a gorgeous area with only a tiny number of infections even after all these weeks - the last thing we need is for carriers to start coming here in droves.. This also has the nice benefit of keeping those New Yorkers locked in since these are the counties they most often flock to.
Anyway, just spitballing.
One trick you could use is to be so obnoxious that people automatically avoid you. A technique that I’ve seen used with much success is to pick a popular subject and form an opinion that is contrary to the popular opinion. Make this your single most important issue. Bring it up any time a conversation is even remotely related to this pet topic. It’s best if you take a condescending and confrontational tone.
I’ll use the topic of lap dances as a totally random example. Your opinion could be that they are not a good idea. If you come up with some catchy phrases you can just repeat those like a broken record.
If someone brings up anything related to strippers or strip clubs you’ve got a free pass to use your phrases, but don’t stop there. If someone talks about their daughter’s dance recital or that their dog likes to sit in their lap you can work it in to the conversation. You can get even more play time if you work puns and rhymes in as well.
If you follow these tips people will quickly start to ignore you.
Anyone else have any tips?
Serious replies only
Anything to pass the time, we're on lockdown over here. As I said on another thread I've taken up puzzles as of last night. I'm working on a pretty 1000 piece beach house landscape one. I've also been cooking a lot more which is a plus, and exercising. Anything to pass the time.
I am worried though. Not for myself, but for loved ones. And I'm really pissed. I hope I don't hear a story like that from anyone I know. But I'm in a suburb of Detroit, it's spreading like wildfire. I also have an older cousin (40s) who had it. She was just told to stay home and she did and she's recovered now.
You really had to post that after I posted that I have two families hospitalized and one is not going to live, and might even. E dead already. Cool.
Wow. Skibum, you're a fucking dick.
"Or, by way of comparison for the USA
Annual STD cases: 2.4 Million
Cumulative CoVid 19 infections: 450,000"
What the fuck does that matter? The "S" in STD stands for "sexually;" STDs are sexually transmitted (or via sharing needles for the bloodborne ones). Like, you actually need to engage in sex to contract them, which requires way more close contact than a virus that lives in droplets when people cough. Wtf is wrong with your brain?
Furthermore, STDs either has a cure or an effective anti-viral treatment. Even people with HIV are expected to live full, healthy lives if they take their anti-viral medication. COVID19 is new (hence the 19 standing for 2019), and we haven't developed effective anti-virals to treat it. How is that comparable to STD transmission or treatment?
And skibum, why don't take your wife's hand and shove it up your asshole.
Wishing you the best.
Most rational people fear the virus.
Some blame "the others".
Ignorance probably.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/21-year-ol…
I think now she "gets it".
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
I thought you put me on ignore after you started an argument with me and I shat on your face in return...
We will get through this.
Stay strong and my heart goes out to you.
------- quote
Two developments this week:
1. There is now a 45 minute test for Coronavirus using equipment already in place at most hospitals. The supplies needed for this test will start rolling out in about a week.
2. Early research and small sample tests suggest that Chloroquine can significantly benefit patients with CoVid. Larger sample tests are already underway in Wuhan and elsewhere.
So, in a matter of weeks, there will be a quick way of determining whether someone has the bug and a good chance of inexpensive treatment to shorten the period of sickness, reduce severity of the illness, and improve the mortality.
------------- end quote
1. the ability for "most hospitals" to do all the testing they need, is not in sight yet, much less available a week later, as per #1
2. there remains no convincing evidence that chloroquine is helpful
As anyone who is data driven -- rather than trying to grasp at and interpret any data in a way to support the conclusion they already have -- realizes, there was never a "good chance" either of these things would happen.
Just think it's worth going back to the original context of the thread occasionally.
I said that it would be a matter of weeks for hospitals to do 45 minute CoVid tests. These tests have been approved by the FDA and it’s just a matter of getting supplies to hospitals. Faster, pin prick, tests are in the pipeline.
I said there was a good chance of inexpensive treatment ( I didn’t specify a timeline for this ). There are over 100 treatments being worked on, including Hydroxychloroquine.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mrt.com…
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busines…
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/3…
So no, it's not enough data. But it is promising!
The only sorta reliable data we have is that those areas that got a jump-start on this and were aggressive w/ it early-on, vs assuming/hoping it wouldn't be so bad, those areas have fared much better.
You keep making promises with your mouth that your ass can't keep.
They are working on a treatment. Lots of smart people in lots of countries. I’m fairly certain that as soon as they find a cure I’ll see it reported. I’m fairly also certain that it won’t be Tuscl that scoops the story.
Really? I think that the residents in many FL counties would disagree with this. Yes we have over 3,100 cases in FL, but over 1,900 of them are from 4 counties and those counties have been the most aggressive in addressing this by far. I think a far better metric in measuring "success" in dealing with this is population density, which is largely outside of the politicos' control. It explains why NYC is getting swamped despite jumping on this earlier than just about any city in this country.
I have had 5 successful OTC encounters. A lot of the girls are hurting and would appreciate if a few customers would text them via thier instagram. I made a screenshot of thier instagram names which can be found below:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BG48ENgCEAAI…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-bl…
FLF, I'm suggesting that people in a county without a single freakin' case might, for example, feel that a less drastic approach to managing exposure is warranted. I guess I had to make this point painfully obviously. Now re-review my earlier posts in light of this painfully spelled out point and hopefully everything will be more clear for you. ;)
You really need to calm down
No, you implied that it would very quickly be available at scale, and justified rethinking whether we should still shelter in place or drop it right now, because of the mere existenceo f that test. You implied the same about a cure -- your suggestion we should re-think sheltering in place NOW, is based on it. Neither of those are true. The real problem here is that you want to tie things that might come to pass in weeks or months (all the tests needed available at scale, a cure available at scale) into re-thinking shelter-in-place now. You're absolutely wrong on both your contentions, and 1000x wrong on whether we should have dropped shelter-in-place a week ago (when you posted), wrong now. We shouldn't re-think policy based on what-might-be's
“Given all this, does it still make sense to have everyone shelter in place ? “
I still think it’s a question worth asking. Especially since the key word is “everyone”.
Nothing for me to apologize for.
When there is an indication that 45-minute tests, and a cure, are rolling out at scale, that's a great time to have that conversation. I think you picked on the right thing -- testing to generate data-driven decisions, and a cure -- with delusional timing
I can't vouch for the veracity of Tectonix; this story is being cited widely in the media, along with the fact that groups of spring breakers have tested positive. In retrospect of all this, when we have the data, it will be interesting to see how the open beach policies impacted and ignited everywhere else (if they did), the way NYers are perhaps kicking up FL's rates.
Also keep in mind that:
> FL has a population of 22 million people, so on a per capita basis that number is low.
> Some of the earliest identified have likely already recovered.
> A lot of these jumps are coming from dramatically increased testing run by the FL National Guard and others.
In any case, in all honesty, I think the beaches -- particularly those populated by spring breakers -- are what everyone on the east coast should be worried about. Although I think the big beaches are closed?
Look on a map you'll see the three southern counties, then Tampa on the west coast Orlando in the center, then Jacksonville on the northeast, I95 runs the east corridor I75 the west and I believe I35 runs across the middle it's inevitable that it spreads unless travel is restricted, like I said opinions aren't facts.
Adapt Yes. Stay in the primal Cave, we can scramble to fix the economy when the threat is past.
I'll listen to the medical experts and not just schmucks and baby tyrants with empty promises who want to throw us under the bus to expand their portfolios.
IMO; the leap from GPS tracking of location of mobile devices once within 6 feet of each other on a particular FL beach to possibly infected humans carrying those devices to infected humans spreading the infection seems possible but tenuous. Moreover, the number tracked may be too small for meaningful extrapolation to much larger pop.
Our view as 'lab rats' running the pandemic maze is narrow and biased as we run madly toward our individual goal reward.
The Experimenter has a different picture and a better understanding of the results.
So now is the question is whether or not it is worth it for an area considering all the factors. NYC? It's probably a no brainer given that there hospitals are going to be overtaxed and this will cause related deaths for those that can't get treatment for anything regardless of it being virus related. And those FL counties? Personally I'd like to see the projection on the number of deaths in that area from the economic hit it will take because of social distancing. Then we could compare that to the rate of deaths of the virus and see which is the greater "evil". There's so much talk about data and projections on the virus side. Why not evaluate and get data on the economic impact side, including it's death rate. Where's that data or model?
joker, agree. I don't think there's any strong claims being made. It's just a claim of "here's where the spring breakers returned to". I don't think we'll have data for months, if ever, on the conclusions we all naturally draw -- lots of spring breakers in close contact, spread covid19 around and brought it back to their local cities. There's already news stories of groups of spring breakers who partied together and all subsequently tested positive, but that's isolated data.
I guess you missed the irony of presenting an opinion as if it was a biblical fact and then accusing someone else of doing the same in the very same sentence.
But here are two facts:
- It is spreading much slower here than in NY despite the fact that there is no statewide shutdown.
- The half of the population you identified in those 6 counties represent 2/3 of all cases in Florida and also happen to be the most population dense.
- Scientists are increasingly starting to believe that this COVID-19 has weather sensitivity similar to the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Hence I continue to support a more measured approach to this. If things blow up exponentially in any particular county instead of its current arithmetic growth then lock it down, but otherwise a balance between economic health and optimal medical safety is the best approach for the overwhelming majority of the 22 million people in Florida who are likely never going to get this.
These vibrant memories of a pleasant and secure existence make other realities, however imminent, seem vague and visionary. So it happens that when the times become unhinged, it is the *practical people* who are caught unaware and are made to look like visionaries who cling to things that no longer exist.
based on Eric Hoffer, The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements
^ To illustrate.
I was thinking customs are a factor too. In Italy the common greeting is a kiss on each cheek. Italy also had a high rate of spread.
Anyway, on the rate, I am saying it is a FACT that new infections have tripled in 4 days in FL (I started looking at Florida stats on Tuesday when you claimed FL was linear; one 4-day stretch doesn't mean it's a long-term trend, I'm just saying that it is a fact that during the 4 days I watched, it was exponential at around the same level as everywhere else. NYC may well be higher than everywhere else). We can try to explain it with increased testing, etc., but the exact same explanation applies in every other area also, and in those areas, "double every 3 days" tends to continue. More good news if it doesn't
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdas…
"An article which might amuse some readers here:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/arm…
It's about the phenomenon of Very Smart People -- who happen to be pig-ignorant about epidemiology -- showing great confidence that their own analyses and forecasts of the present pandemic are better than those of people who've devoted their careers studying and monitoring infectious disease transmission, and epidemics in particular."
Tidbits from the article: Ignore the people misconstruing their expertise and offering false certainty.
As one Twitter user quipped, “Coronavirus can cause a hacking cough. As a software engineer, I know a thing or two about hacking.
Just because you can analyze data doesn’t mean you should
....................
We now return you to your regularly scheduled TUSCL Bullshitters Forum
One reason back-of-the-envelope hot takes are thriving is that the science of ongoing epidemics is inherently uncertain. And in the U.S., the testing fiasco has only amplified that uncertainty. How many people have the new coronavirus? How many people will become infected and never know? How likely are they to spread it? What role do children play? What is the actual death rate? These are crucial data, and we simply don’t have reliable estimates right now. In addition, how societies behave feeds back into the epidemic’s severity, adding another layer of uncertainty. The way the virus behaves in China or Italy will be different from how it behaves here, depending on what we do. The only thing we know for sure is that things continue to change rapidly, which also means that in these circumstances, anyone claiming certainty is suspect.
These posts may be coming in response to an epidemic, but they reflect the alternative facts problem endemic to American political psychology—just now with a pernicious quantitative twist. As public opinion about the appropriate response to the pandemic becomes—predictably and depressingly—hyperpolarized, people are falling in line. There’s a growing movement in conservative circles to end the shelter-in-place directives and a growing insistence in liberal circles to keep them in place. Earlier this week, trending on Twitter were #ReopenAmerica (among conservatives) and #NotDyingForWallStreet (among liberals). With the help of the president, we’re watching the conversation devolve into a false dichotomy between saving the economy and preserving public health. In this escalating din, I hear the familiar refrains of the culture wars. Posts like [ the examples of armchair epidemiology cited in this article ] entrench each side further, because now each side gets to claim its own set of settled “facts.”
*In reality, a rapidly developing pandemic requires we tolerate some amount of uncertainty.*
https://images.app.goo.gl/qdVHZzrL4KKXHS…
>With the help of the president, we’re watching the conversation devolve into a false dichotomy between saving the economy and preserving public health. In this escalating din, I hear the familiar refrains of the culture wars. <
It's hardly devolving, its been politicized from the beginning, our POTUS originally called this a hoax designed to get him, and is still refusing to acknowledge the facts as laid out by his own team.
@Subra this is my contention as well. One of mine, #1 actually, is when we have a rate of testing for it that exceeds the rate of detecting the virus. It's only until then when we'll know the true infection rate of this thing. Also this will help put confidence around the death rate stat as well.
- Reports of Plans being made to ration ventilators. the director of the Health and Human Services' Office of Civil Rights (OCR) announced they were opening investigations into the complaints. The OCR also issued a six-page bulletin to outline civil-rights statutes as they applied to the current situation, which states that those with disabilities "should not be denied medical care on the basis of stereotypes, assessments of quality of life, or judgements about a person's relative 'worth' based on the presence or absence of disabilities."
- Tension over Hydroxychloroquine: Even while hydroxychloroquine remains unproven for treating COVID-19, supplies of the drug have already dwindled. That's prompted some physicians to try and reassure patients who rely on the medication to prevent lupus or other rheumatic-disease flare-ups that it will remain available for them. Right now, there are only the "thinnest threads" of evidence that hydroxychloroquine or any other available medication are effective against the virus
- Mark94++ testing kits coming up! After 2 months of setbacks, COVID-19 diagnostics in the US finally got a win. A new test, just approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, can deliver COVID-19 results within minutes and can be used at the point of care in hospitals, urgent care centers, and physicians' clinics. Abbott Laboratories, which created the test, says they can begin distribution of the tests next week and plans to manufacture 50,000 of the tests per day.
We shall see what things are like in 2 weeks....
And, unlike the Chinese test kits that Europe was relying on, that turned out to have an 80% failure rate, the US versions are accurate.
The first 4,000 were delivered to the NYC main distribution center and, after many days, NY officials had not distributed any to hospitals. After being called out on this, they have begun distribution.
Perhaps partly because of this, the Feds are holding the ventilators until a community, whether NY or another city, approaches 100% use of the ones it already has. They don’t want to just give them to NY then discover a greater need someplace like New Orleans.
Yes,yes, I know. Small sample. Not enough data. It’s Trump’s idea so it can’t be right.
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coro…
"Small sample. Not enough data."
It really is this simple. One a proven solution is out there working IN REAL LIFE then there will be much less to fear. It's not complicated.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronaviru…
So we should still fear it in a cautionary way, instead of panicking. It actually is quite serious. What's more serious is hospitals sending memos basically saying that they will refuse treatment to the unhealthy folks... the triage is going to start soon like it did in Italy, where people are assessed at the hospital and then the doctors will determine who lives and who dies. US hospitals are already near capacity. The next three weeks are going to be very rough, then I think things will lighten up, but those three weeks will include many unnecessary deaths because we simply don't have the equipment to care for everyone who needs it.
Sorry for your loss.
This small uncontrolled French study does not remotely justify changing the social policy -- laughable to suggest it might be so last week when you posted, as laughable right now. Yes, it indicates more study is warranted, but not policy change, man! As far as the actual epidemiologists, actual professional experts on this seem to think remdesivir (currently being used in trials in China) as an antiviral and mabs such as tocilizumab that moderate the cytokine storm hold more promise, but there is absolutely reason to continue studying hydroxychloroquine too.
But your notion that people are not supporting broad policy change based on hydroxychloroquine because Trump, rather than it being a tiny uncontrolled study that did not prove clinical improvement, is not realistic. This study is a bit of hopeful news -- maybe hydroxychlorquinine will be proven to actually help (or not) in upcoming weeks
What he says:
“When we see a state or region have numbers that go down over time, and when we have diagnostics in place, and when we have masks available for all of our doctors and nurses who are putting their lives at risk to take care of sick patients, and hospitals are well-prepared, and when we can get our public health systems in place to start tracing or identifying individuals and start tracing their contacts, again like they do in Asia --- I think those five major conditions --- then I think it’s a time to begin to think about how we might experiment with lightening social distancing, perhaps one step at a time.”
He thinks the US might be there in 2 weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
@Nina wow that's a lot of incidents in your extended family. I'm sorry it has to be you but I do appreciate that you are sharing your experience. And your return to posting is a bittersweet joy to me because of it.
Out here in Oregon we have one of the worst hospital capacities per capita in the nation. I'm personally glad that our governor and Washington's put us on shelter in place while we still had a (relatively) low number of cases last week.
@Subra great posts recently. 👏👏👏
@mark that's good news regarding the rate drop in NY. Imagine where they would be without social distancing. And in hindsight they would have been even better off had they started social distancing earlier.
And since detection of the virus still lags the infection rate, you must assume you are further along in the exponential growth curve than where the data says you are.
Today I get a call from the ENT office that they are gonna be closed for the month of April - luckily I'm about 90% better although I still have a bit of throat soreness every now and then - now I'm concerned docs will not wanna see patients and will want people to go to the emergency room or UrgentCare - I don't necessarily trust telamedicine although it's better than nothing; e.g. my ENT-doc confirmed my sinus infection by looking deep down my nostrils w/ a stethoscope.
You definitely need to get a new ear nose throat guy. 🩺 😀
Sounds like you're recovering but if you get sinus or lung congestion then follow up is probably warranted. Just my personal experience; once I waited too long to see the doc again after initial treatment didn't fully cure it. Second tx provided 80% relief in 10 - 14 days but it took *five months* to be completely free of occasional sore throat and coughing spells.
Before your ENT's office closes maybe call them to see if they've made any provision for f/u when office is closed. Just saw my doc for semiannual visit. Told me their practice has set up telephone screening; if caller might have rona they're directed to a separate office in the same building for further triage and tx.
Just my 2 cents
It said to call and reschedule for another date. He's one of the lead docs at the Cleveland Clinic which is world famous for their health care and it always has been hard to get appointments with him. So I called and was told that he didn't have any openings for the rest of this year which is absolutely crazy.
I spoke with his nurse today and she clarified that my only options were a video or phone appointment so we set something up for the end of April. I wonder how they'll check my blood pressure. 🤪
Dr Fauci is receiving death threats from right-wing groups:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/…
...for having the courage to stand up to pseudo-science and bullshitting.
-no gatherings of more than 50 people (revised down from 500 last Friday),
-avoid social contact if over 70 or ill,
-try to work from home,
-table service only in bars and restaurants
If you read the first post in this thread, that should sound familiar
Will this work ? We’ll know in a few weeks. But, a lot of Swedes are getting nervous.
A total of 869 people have moved in so far, Gov. Gavin Newsom said. “Homelessness is a crisis that predates the current crisis. We’re doing everything we can to meet it head-on,” he said. The project, called “Room Key,” will be partially funded by FEMA, which will reimburse cities and counties for 75% of the costs, according to Newsom.
Newsom’s announcement comes a day after San Francisco reported its first COVID-19 case in a homeless shelter ..."
"... Mexico’s Grupo Modelo said on Thursday it will temporarily stop brewing Corona beer and other brands exported to 180 countries after its business activities were declared non-essential under a government order aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus.
The Mexican government this week declared a health emergency and ordered the suspension of non-essential activities after the number of coronavirus cases in the country surpassed 1,000. On Thursday, it reported 1,510 cases and 50 deaths ..."
"... With the coronavirus contagion spreading, the White House said anyone expected to be near President Donald Trump or Vice President Mike Pence will be given a rapid COVID-19 test.
“As the physician to the president and White House Operations continue to protect the health and safety of the president and vice president, starting today anyone who is expected to be in close proximity to either of them will be administered a COVID-19 test to evaluate for pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers status to limit inadvertent transmission,” said White House spokesman Judd Deere ..."
"... The Department of Transportation said that airlines must give customers refunds when flights are canceled or significantly delayed amid coronavirus.
The agency said it has received an increasing number of complaints from airline customers who said they were denied refunds for canceled or significantly delayed flights and instead given vouchers to use for travel at a later date.
“In recognition of the fact that the COVID-19 public health emergency has had major impacts on the airline industry, the Aviation Enforcement Office will exercise its prosecutorial discretion and provide carriers an opportunity to become compliant before taking further action,” the agency said ..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavi…
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York has tested positive for the coronavirus.
The 4-year-old female Malaysian tiger, Nadia, had developed a dry cough and was tested “out of an abundance of caution,” the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Bronx Zoo said in a statement.
The diagnosis was confirmed by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories. It is the first confirmed COVID-19 case in a tiger, according to the USDA.
Several tigers and lions at the zoo showed symptoms of a respiratory illness, the USDA said.
The tiger who tested positive is believed to have become infected by a zoo employee. The tiger first began to show symptoms on March 27, the USDA said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavi…
:) Cats have been testing positive for coronavirus in China for a while. There's mixed reports on whether felines just get the virus or actually get covid19, but it sounds like this cat had a dry cough and so actually had covid19
One thing to remember if your with a group that gets chased by a tiger you don’t need to be the fastest member of that group just be sure to outrun the slowest.
I think they may be jumping the gun w/ that diagnosis - maybe the tiger was a smoker and the cough was from that
Not surprised about the rice-hoarding - it *is* a Malaysian tiger
Incidentally, we are learning that obesity, even at a young age, is a big risk factor for CoVid.
Maybe this can be a new line of revenue for strippers during this health-crisis
A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak ..."
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/at-lea…
ncov2019.live
Y'all are ridiculous. It is called Coronavirus, or COVID19, not "the Chinese virus." You sound like toothless rubes when you call it that. Then again, maybe you are...?
That is ripped right out of Animal Farm and is equivalent to you saying, "I AM A RACIST AND THINK CERTAIN RACES ARE BETTER THAN OTHERS!" you idiot.
Do you call the Spanish flu the Kansas virus? The American virus? The possibly Chinese-Canadian-American virus? I bet you still call HIV "gay virus."
This is called COVID19. Or Coronavirus. You're going out if your way to call it "the Chinese virus." Did you ever take a biology class? Fucking grow up, dude.
Your headspace is dangerous. I don't know what's inside of your skull, but it damn sure ain't a brain.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04…
It is comments like this that show how much compassion you lack.
Skibum, you are a terrible miserable old fart. And a waste of skin, at that.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/animals/…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78EvLw2h…
If one person in a jail or prison gets it, it will spread like wildfire. Since they're not allowed visitation right now, for many of them a guard will be the one to bring it in and it will look like a war zone. CO's will be sick too, or quarantined, etc. The med department will fill up so fast, they'll probably devote half the blocks to COVID19 patients. Like, I could see a prison getting split in half separating the non-covid patients from the infected ones and setting up "hospitals" in a substantially sized, quarantined, part of the prison.
My ex is asthmatic, I've seen him get some pretty bad asthma attacks and when he's out in the real world he needs prescribed inhalers to help him breathe and needs them often. He is a criminal and doing his 3rd prison sentence (yes prison, not jail) so although I haven't spoken to him in over a year and don't have romantic feelings, I was genuinely concerned. I was contemplating reaching out to him just to make sure he's OK, but he still calls my mom and chats with her so I got the scoop without having to talk to him.
He told her he had the flu two weeks ago I guess it was spreading around the prison, and it was horrible but he said it wasn't COVID19 although I don't believe he was actually tested for it. So I think he may have possibly had COVID19 as a prison is a breeding ground for contagious diseases to be spread, and he might have just not known he had it. Besides his asthma, he's young (27) and moderately healthy, the same can't be said for all of those inmates...
I also live in a "hotspot," southeast MI. For Christ's sake, people, STAY INSIDE and when you go out for essentials, be cautious and WASH YOUR HANDS. Staying in and social distancing is the key here, no matter how bad the effects of that may seem.
But I think warm and humid climates are better for survival rates with this virus... I hope to see a drop in death rates as things get warmer even in these cooler states.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
It just doesn't seem like all cold states are getting hit hard - I think w.r.t. NY is probably the NYC density and the fact many people depend on public-transportation and walking in crowded streets; etc
I wonder if after this many people will reconsider living in NYC.
1 My understanding is that those admitted to the hospital because of testing positive for Covid and who unfortunately wind up perishing because of an underlying health problem are categorized as a Covid fatality. Doesn’t seem accurate to me.
2 Regarding the colder months the pathogens live better in these months, but these are the months of gatherings. School season Aug to May. Holidays - mostly in the winter months. Blockbuster movie releases - other than July 4, winter. Sports football, hockey, basketball - played through winter. Etc.
3 I don’t totally trust Fauci or any of the WHO people. Y’all ever been at a company where the secretary gets a promotion to manager or assistant manager and the newfound limelight goes to the person’s head? They went from sitting in the corner, doing legit work that went largely unrecognized to being more prominent? All of a sudden that power and attention goes to their head. Kinda feels like that to me.
Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they’d been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombe…
It is like nuclear fallout which had not dissipated which you could come into contact with.
Or another view is that many lives were saved not participating in the economy, due to accidents being way low on the jobs and highways. You can spin either way, because
Poor people won’t go to the doctor if they w lost their job.
Stanford study
https://www.mercurynews.com/coronavirus-…
And this from Massachusetts
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/b…
It would take a few days to do the kind of testing needed to find out. Why haven’t we done that already ?
The report from Boston (30% infection rate) is the highest I've seen.
https://www.businessinsider.com/who-inve…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04…
On Friday [4/10], South Korea reported that 91 coronavirus patients being considered for discharge tested positive for the virus again.
The director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being re-infected.
It remains unclear why the patients tested positive after initially testing negative for COVID-19 — WHO announced Saturday that it would be investigating the reports.
False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others.
"As COVID-19 is a new disease, we need more epidemiological data to draw any conclusions," WHO told Reuters.
Perhaps the data shows/will-show most that perish are older and/or have underlying conditions -but I keep hearing of case after case of young people w/ no underlying conditions dying or being severely affected - being young and healthy is not 100% immunity, not to mention that young healthy people can spread it to others that may not be young and/or as healthy and cause those folks an early-death.
One study that looked at 214 people with moderate to severe COVID-19 in Wuhan, China found that about one-third of those patients had one or more neurological symptoms. Neurological symptoms were more common in people with more severe disease.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombe…
+ a bit over half the population lives alone
+ Sweden has a very advanced telecom infrastructure and for years many of its citizens have worked from home at least part of the time
If NY & NJ were inline w/ most other states it'd be a significantly different picture.
Authorities said three men were found dead over the weekend at a New York City hotel used to house people who had recently been released from hospitals after testing positive for the coronavirus ...
https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/coro…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20…
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa…
Also -across the country porch-pirates are on the increase b/c of so many people ordering online to avoid going to the store.
The CDC is dysfunctional beyond belief. They screwed up testing early on. Redfield appeared at some of the early task force presentations and came across as a minor bureaucrat.
[from what I heard on the news, it's originally targeted for frontline workers]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/ho…