Should we still fear Coronavirus ?

NO

and

NO

I"n recent weeks, Dr Fauci has garnered a reputation for repeatedly contradicting Trump's claims about coronavirus.

On Thursday, the president said that there had been positive results after doctors trialed chloroquine on COVID-19 patients, and suggested the drug could be a 'game-changer'.

'It's shown very, very encouraging early results. We're going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. It's been approved,' Trump said.

However, a few hours later Fauci told CNN: 'There's no magic drug for coronavirus right now'.

'Let me put it into perspective for the viewers .. there has been anecdotal non-proven data that it [chloroquine] works... but when you have an uncontrolled trial you can never definitely say that it works'. "

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article…

It's going to get a whole lot worse. The USA just passed Spain as the country with the third highest amount of confirmed COVID cases.

Fear is healthy, it prevents you from doing stupid things, OTH Mark you shouldn't be afraid, your invincible.

Jackslash is right about the news reporting that Fauci is contradicting President Trump. But that ain't what is really happening. If you can find the unedited versions of the press conferences the major news outlets are using to produce their Trump v. Fauci misinformation, you will find that reporters we trying to bait Fauci with very leading questions. Most of the time, Fauci's responses were overtly and intentionally supportive of what Trump has said. Occasionally, Fauci tried to clarify misstatements BY REPORTERS - and that is where the headlines came from.

Fauci actually did say that there is anecdotal evidence that chloroquine helps, and evidence that using it with a common antibiotic is beneficial. He also said that testing is underway. Where the media is having a field day is when Fauci qualifies his endorsement with a "we won't know for sure until test prove the results" statement.

Right or wrong, most media outlets really, really, hate Trump. They won't even let a global apocalypse get in the way of saying bed things about Trump!

“It's going to get a whole lot worse. The USA just passed Spain as the country with the third highest amount of confirmed COVID cases.”

The number of cases says more about the number of tests being performed rather than the number infected. For example, in China they sent most people home without testing. There were millions more infected than reported. In Japan, they don’t seem to be testing. The suspicion is that there are many more infected than official numbers would reflect. In South Korea, they have been aggressively testing, so they saw a surge in reported cases as testing ramped up.

Trump’s approval ratings have gone up. So have Cuomo’s.

The American people want decisive leaders who jump into action when threats appear.

What they don’t like are whining weasels, like the so-called journalists and most career politicians, who grandstand with their clever criticism.

The coronavirus press conferences have become unwatchable, not because of the team presenting but because of the petty, clueless, snarky questions from self-anointed journalists.

^ 3-2-1 and he’s back our dear leader whom no discussion would be complete with mentioning his name.

The 45 minute test should be a game changer. Well, that is if there was politics will. Open back up communities after everyone is tested.

Sounds extreme but less extreme than what's happening

I work with local leaders and their biggest concern is containing the fear people are spreading faster than the virus itself.

The precautions are highly warranted and justified, but we will look back on this and laugh at how much we over reacted. The overreaction by media is somewhat necessary, considering we have so many stupid people who fail to use critical thinking.

Who actually still listens to AND trusts ANY MEDIA outlet? They no longer “report”. They are nothing more than “opinion” producers. BOTH SIDES of the fence.

Wife and I are treating this as a vacation.

A survey showed that 93% of people who believe they have Covid, don’t. Among those who have Covid-like symptoms, and get tested, 85%-90% do not have Covid. Rather, they some other flu.

That’s why the 45 minute test is going to be so helpful. It will screen out 90% of the fearful people who would otherwise take a hospital bed.

Initially the mandated closure may be a welcome respite by most mid and small size businesses.

It gives them a good excuse not to service their established customer base with the added comfort of knowing their competition is also shutdown.

Past two weeks though, there will be increasing social unrest as revenue drys.

I suspect businesses will soon start to openly defy closure orders.

The population that dies from this will be rapidly replaced by all the December babies getting born this year. There isn't much for a shut-in couple to do right now other than Netflix and fuck.

There is only so long that Americans will tolerate this level of shutdown before they start seeking workarounds. There is also only so long our economy can handle this level of complete inactivity. I give it another week - two tops - or before we start reading stories of widespread defiance of lockdown orders.

@scrub - I agree with your perspective. Most will eventually get it. Some will die even with care.

The real risk is the number of people that will die because the hospitals cannot provide adaquate care.

This is a totally different number then the number of people that will inevatibly get the virus and sucommb regardless of treatment.

Anyone speaking in the terms will be skeward.

It would be nice if blood tests could be available. Anybody who has already developed antibodies would not have to be confined to lockdown measures on the condition that:

1. Working at least 15 hours a week (hopefully it will be easier to get employed if certified “past it”)
2. Some form of community service related to Covid related chaos for at least 5 hours a week.

Just a random thought that popped into my head. Bad idea or good idea? 🤔

@Nice

I had similar thoughts early in that if it got bad enough the medical system would ask for volunteers to assist from thos who already had time to build an immunity to it. They can theoretically test those volunteers right there as proof they are immune.

Whst you are saying sounds reasonable. The hard part is administrating what you are proposing from desperate people posing as immune. How would they execute such a mass program on a reliable controlled manner.

I’ve read articles about using previously infected to do work. Problem is, we don’t know for certain whether they are immune from further infections. One of many answers we need.

Back in the day, parents used to hold chicken pox parties to infect their kids and make them immune to getting infected as an adult. Seriously, it really was a thing.

If the majority of Americans follow through with the recommendations, this will be over sooner rather than later, and self important shitheads will be shown up as the selfish individuals that they are, later when this is over there will be a reckoning, and how you acted will count for something.

" I give it another week - two tops "

Rick, I'll put whatever is left of my 401k to take that bet. In fact, it's the reverse, neighbors are beginning to politely, and in a friendly way talk to neighbors about "you shouldn't be out". I expect in a week - two tops - the discussions won't be as gentle or polite. With the support of most people, the police are going to formally start enforcing the shutdown (on businesses only at first, I imagine). You're 180 degrees from what's actually going to happen. Especially as we the numbers we're already seeing -- 20% of hospitalizations are people 20-44 -- continue coming in, and people realize no one is safe if the hospitals are past capacity. Yes, some teenagers will try to find ways around it, but the community in general will be MORE invested, not less, in a week. I'm more than willing to come back to this thread in a week and admit I'm an idiot if I'm wrong. You?

===> "Back in the day, parents used to hold chicken pox parties to infect their kids and make them immune to getting infected as an adult. Seriously, it really was a thing."

Yup. Anyone here over 40 has probably had it. It was pretty harmless to most children except for those infernal itchy pox, but far more serious for grown adults. So parents made damned sure that their kids went through it and developed an immunity as early as possible outside of baby years. I got it from a cousin who was invited over specifically because she had it.

Sub, IMHO you're showing a great misunderstanding of human nature. Perhaps that might fly in places like CA and NY for a time, where citizens are already accustomed to being told what to do by their state governments and risk aversion is generally higher. But much of the rest of the vast expanse of this country is culturally different. Also, the panic is still fresh now, but eventually it will get old and start to wear, especially as financial worries continue to mount.

Heck, the young are already chafing at the restrictions and nobody is buying the notion that this is just as deadly to young people, however much politicos try to sell it. They will soon be followed by parents who are growing tired of having their children stuck in the house for weeks on end. Then there are those who absolutely must find some way to earn money. Then there are...

But ok, we shall see...

Already backlash is starting to form. My county in Florida has still left its beaches open as residents overwhelmingly opposed their closure. That backlash will continue to grow as more and more stories circulate about young people getting mild symptoms and then recovering, starting in states that have not been hit hard and then spreading everywhere else.

I agree that it's gonna get worse before it gets better in regards to shelter in place laws and closures. This will not be over in two weeks.

I wish Rick were right, but I know in my heart that's not gonna be the case. We won't be able to waltz into strip clubs with pockets bulging full of cash and bad intentions anytime soon(shout out RHB).

As a matter of fact in a couple of weeks I think all those folks that started hoarding canned goods, frozen foods, and pasta will be closer to being able to say 'I told you so'.

We will see......

I'm with Rick on this one. Unless the government comes out with a rational timeline and milestones, patience will wear thin with these restrictions quickly. I'm already seeing growing grumbling in social media.

Let's reconvene in three weeks and see who was right.

===> "I wish Rick were right, but I know in my heart that's not gonna be the case. We won't be able to waltz into strip clubs with pockets bulging full of cash and bad intentions anytime soon(shout out RHB)."

To be clear TFP, I'm not saying that state and local governments are going to let up anytime soon. I'm saying that people subject to these order are going to find other ways to socialize and earn money. IMHO a lockdown like this is simply not sustainable for any length of time in a country as vast and diverse as this.

===> "Let's reconvene in three weeks and see who was right."

Agreed.

Rick ain't even close to right he's just trying to justify his own selfish attitude, it's going to be more like I don't give a fuck if you put your self and your family at risk, but now you're fucking with mine, and if the authorities don't pay attention, we will form a citizen's council to deal with you idiots.

LW: Rick said a week. See you next Sunday :)

While I strongly support the curve-flattening, I also think this can't go on forever, or even for months. Here's an interesting perspective on other actions to be taken: https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flatt…

^^^ I don't necessarily agree that "the military" should be doing these things, but we are going to have to come out of the lockdowns, and a drastic increase in capacity feels like a way to do that sooner, and be prepared for the rebound in virus cases when it happens

No doubt I could be influenced more by being not just in CA, but in the bay area, Rick. I'm reading the local neighborhood boards -- people are beginning to call the police on those gathered in playgrounds, for example. And the police are actually coming out, though the policy at the moment is just education, not citations.

We are 7 days into the 15 day social distancing program. There will be lots of testing data coming out this week. I expect some adjustment in our approach at the end of the 15 days. Maybe vast differences by city/state reflecting the data. LA has already announced they are giving up on testing and imposing China-like restrictions.

And yet wrestlemania is still going on as scheduled-not live, but ppv only. Do you think only individual households will order it- With groups held below 10 and social distancing in place? (I have no interest in it, but can't believe that it is ppv only and the only major "entertainment" allowed to still go on-even without fans).

Sub, let's split the difference and call it two weeks since I did account for the possibility. By then I predict that a backlash will be evident in many areas.

For now, I think I'll take the kids to the beach. Then later I'll let them play outside with the other neighborhood kids, which is basically a nightly ritual 'round these parts once the heat of the day subsides. The young gotta' keep living, even if the old are rightly huddled in their homes in fear.

I was just reading a completely different forum, completely different hobby of mine.... someone reporting that around ASU, you can hear the parties at night. And in another area, people are having "quarantine parties" (these are adults, not college kids". All technically staying indoors, but obviously not social distancing. It will be interesting to see which way this goes

"GameStop Instructs Employees to Ignore Law Enforcement And Not Shut Down"

"GameStop Instructs Employees to Ignore Law Enforcement And Not Shut Down - VICE"
https://www.vice.com/amp/en_ca/article/p…

This will probably get muted, but just read from a reliable source that a 50/50 mixture of antifreeze and vinegar has proven to kill coronavirus in vitro. Exciting news and I'm expecting this to hit the peer-reviewed medical journals, soon. Please tell the @OP.

The info on Chloroquine spread like a virus starting from the medical pre-print servers and was picked up by amateurs. Until randomized clinical trials are done, take it with a GRAIN OF SALT.

...aLthough, I'm hoping the @OP will self-medicate and get back to us with the results.

/sarcasm/ I strongly encourage those Trumpaholics, MAGAts, vocel/incels, and gamers to gather in large numbers. All those with questionable reality testing, fanatic psychological tendencies, etc.

It's a 'win-win'. Many will get infected and survive with no symptoms or very mild symptoms. They'll get a shot of imaginary testosterone. They'll be able to boast that they confronted imaginary fears and survived. They were right and the 'normies' were wrong.

OTOH, up to 2-3% may die ridding the overall population of dangerously compromised individuals.

Encourage disobedience and help make some impaired folks feel like they make a difference again.
/sarcasm/

Don't forget some have suggested gargling with Clorox, it is extremely effective when combined with red MAGA ball caps.

Senator Rand Paul tests positive for the virus and didn’t even know he has it since he is asymptotic. Ru. For the hills!!

NY just turned Javits Center into a field hospital. It's really scary time living in the Big Apple right now.

This might be something more unique to the NY/NJ area. There are still groups of orthodox Jewish folks ignoring the lockdown. There have been folks in WestChester county attending parties, and in the Lakewood area of NJ having wedding parties.

I see many folks around me keeping at home, and taking walks when the temperatures are warm and the sun is out, and that’s good.

But when folks blatantly ignore the directives, that can hurt everyone. I’m not attempting to make a racist or defamatory statement, but religion is not a reason to thumb one’s nose at these lockdowns.

i have blue balls. gonna blow this joint in a couple days. it sucks being isolated in ‘nowhere’

"NY just turned Javits Center into a field hospital. It's really scary time living in the Big Apple right now."

Yes, all predictions point to the health system being overrun as-is and the need for a lot more beds, ventilators, etc. If Rick's prediction comes true, that will be triply true in areas where people are ignoring the lockdown orders. With 20% of hospitalizations being in the 22-44 age range, a lot of people who think their symptoms will be mild will get a shock. At least in big cities, over the next week or two, I expect we'll see more of these transitions from "law enforcement issues warnings" to "law enforcement issues citations"; and stories of lack of hospital beds perhaps waking some folks up

If you have a high fever and difficulty breathing but decided not to seek medical attention because your 45 minute Coronavirus kit tests negative, then it was nice knowing ya.

Yes with how Floridas been handling all of this I think us here in the northeast will either have to quarantine longer or deal with a bounce back outbreak. Covid isn't going anywhere.

The fatality rate here in the US seems to be going down a little bit every few days as testing increases. Currently down to 1.2 percent and the modelers haven't even started to do their work of factoring in mild and asymptomatic cases. Perhaps some reason to have hope, but still lots of uncertainty.

"... it sucks being isolated in ‘nowhere ..."

Maybe that's where it's best to stay put till this blows over - particularly at your age

shit. i’ve only had pneumonia five times. first time was in socal in my early twenties. I know I’m week.

The points made in the OP are all assumptions - hopefully there'll be plenty of testing available in the near-future, and a therapeutic-cure sooner than later - but as of now:

+ testing is still hard to come by - seems most people that wanna get tested can't and seems for now they wanna limit testing mostly to 65+ and healthcare workers

+ more testing is not necessarily gonna make things that much better - in part it will show that's it's worse than the current #s indicate

+ AFAIK no country has turned-the-corner on this

Hopefully this can be nipped-in-the-bud soon, but I'm not convinced and it seems it may take longer than people want/expect

I think tonight's 60-Minutes show is gonna be about Covid-19 - maybe they'll have some interesting info?

@bman “ The fatality rate here in the US seems to be going down a little bit every few days as testing increases. Currently down to 1.2 percent and the modelers haven't even started to do their work of factoring in mild and asymptomatic cases. Perhaps some reason to have hope, but still lots of uncertainty.”

That’s sort of right but not the whole picture. The real time mortality rates don’t tell the full picture since the pandemic is ongoing and were not even to the steep part of the infection curve. Yes, more tests = more cases and also = what looks like a declining mortality rate with a larger denominator. (Deaths/total cases) The issue is that we don’t know how many of the active cases will die, so the numerator and denominator are measuring one point in time, when they actually need to measure a period in time over the whole pandemic to really tell us anything. The key figures we should be looking at are the fully healed numbers, and even they will take a while to emerge.

We may soon be looking at unemployment numbers rivaling or exceeding those seen in the Great Depression. At what point do we say, we've tried, and it's time to go back to normal as much as possible, with perhaps continued restrictions for nursing homes and the elderly/vulnerable in the community. I think most folks are on board to see this through for month, perhaps two and attempt to get it under some semblance of control, but when I see leaders and experts saying it could last a lot longer than that, I would hope in saying that they aren't expecting a shutdown will go on longer as well. I can't see it. The economic damage that would cause outweighs the pandemic deaths at that point. How many lives are ruined and how many die from the economic damage if we shut down for longer than one or two months? The medical community cannot be the only voices having input on this. We need to look at the big picture.

Bman, there you go being all rational about it. ;)

Though I question whether most folks will even tolerate a full second month. The economic devastation that these shutdowns are causing could be incalculable and linger for several years.

i know this is shallow.... but you gotta die from sumthin...

===> "on the other hand i cannot imagine losing 3.9-4.2 million americans ………."

I somehow suspect that the final numbers would be a small fraction of that. But at some point there is going to need to be a calculus done, perhaps on a state by state level. Cuomo is talking about 9 months now, which is simply unimaginable from an economic standpoint. Our GDP is 5 times the size of the annual federal budget. Consumer spending is 70% of the GDP. The federal government simply cannot sustain the economy and any serious attempt to do so will saddle future generations with a massive burden.

Interesting g article pointed out how red and blue states have reacted differently to the virus and how local politicians respond according to their constituents needs. Metro areas(blue states) like New York, CA, WA and even Michigan have serious concerns because the sender the population the higher rates of infection compared to the smaller and more rural areas which tend to be red. However Democratic cities (Houston, Tucson) in red states have their challenges to input their own orders.

My view - extreme lockdown (work at home, limited hours for shopping / out of the house) for two weeks nationally, and it needs to include Florida, Oklahoma, etc where a bunch of people haven't taken the virus seriously. Once you've had the extreme lockdown for two weeks, review the results and if you've flattened the curve go back to the social distancing / quarantining philosophy for two weeks, see how the curve has changed - hopefully flat or declining - and then gradually ramp up the economy and events. But some restrictions (nursing homes, hand washing, sanitary habits at gas stations and other public places) need to stay. And airlines are going to have to screen passengers to make sure no one has a chronic cough or sneeze. Issuance of face masks should be mandatory for such folks in any public place, let alone an airplane.

That’s a good method Roadwarrior. It’s going to be difficult enforcing nationally, but it’s possibly the most effective method.

Significant push back against the shutdown from the media pundits this morning. No way it continues past two weeks

Healthy people under 60 are at very low risk if they get the virus. Once 60% of these people are infected, and immune, the pandemic is over. Let’s put people over 60, or younger people with chronic health problems, on shelter-in-place. Then, send everyone else to the world’s biggest weeklong party. At the end of the week, distribute Chloroquine and Zpac. Pandemic over.

"Healthy people under 60 are at very low risk if they get the virus. "

The last numbers I saw was ~20% of hospitalizations are under age 44 (specifically the 20-44 group). As long as there are beds and ventilators -- which is what we're trying to buy time for -- the urgency will stay lower. Once we end up where Italy is, not enough ventilators for everyone who needs one, and they're triaging who will live or die, people perhaps get more serious. It's a race to see which condition we reach first.

@ Subraman good thing RickiBoi or Mark isn’t actually in charge of anything 😂

===> "The last numbers I saw was ~20% of hospitalizations are under age 44 (specifically the 20-44 group)."

I suspect that the standards for hospitalization will tighten as this moves forward. I strongly suspect that most of those under 44 folks in the hospital are not on ventilators.

LW: looking to find pushback in the news this morning, haven't found any yet. Any great pointers? One thing I absolutely positively agree with: an indeterminate shutdown is absolutely not viable. We're buying ourselves some time to get more ventilators, turn more convention centers and hotels into overflow rooms, etc. That's one thing I don't quite undrestand: aside from the denial of how many 20-44 hospitalizations there are, is there a denial that hospitals are beyond overflowing in Italy? Fauci and others say part of the reason that isn't happening here is because Trump shut down air transport to and from China, and then Europe (which is the new hot zone) so early (as usual, everything he does is greeted with cries of derision and racism; he did the right thing in that particular case)

There's an interesting tension here regarding the lockdown. People flocked to hiking trails and beaches over the weekend. The state and local governments have responded by closing them. The locals around those popular destinations have responded by putting up signs "Go home!" "If you don't live here, leave, you're putting us at risk", etc. Perhaps a sign there's anger among those locals that's slowly boiling

Rick: no data on that from what I have seen. You could be right (or not). Strongly agree standards for hospitalization will need to tighten, unless we increase the number of rooms quickly

I’ll wager that most of the hospitalized people age 20-44 have underlying health issues. Asthma and diabetes, for example. They should be sheltering in place.

@subra

I would reference Trump's tweet (in all caps) this morning.

Also the below op ed (yes from Fox) for starters.

https://youtu.be/BA4LI0Ok988

Patience is running out.

@Mark I’d wager that most of those folks that are hospitalized For corona virus have underlying health issues no matter their age

"I’ll wager that most of the hospitalized people age 20-44 have underlying health issues"

That's just a guess, though. Until then, you shouldn't go around saying people under 60 have little to fear. We have no idea how much of that 20% is due to underlying illness, and no idea how many are on ventilators. All of that is with patchy preliminary data from the CDC, and not all the data had age numbers attached, so this was just from data that did. Point is, you and I know fuckall about where the numbers will go, but preliminary data is that those under 60 are not skating. Same data said those over 65 were 53 percent of ICU admissions, which leaves a good chunk for those younger.

From issuesinsights online magazine

On Thursday, the journal Nature Medicine reported findings out of the University of Hong Kong that the death rate in China’s Wuhan province, where the disease originated, was 1.4%. That’s several percentage points lower than previous estimates, and far below the World Health Organization’s horrifying pronouncement in early March of a 3.4% death rate.

The Hong Kong researchers also found that the risk of dying was heavily concentrated among older people. For those over 64, the fatality rate was 2.4%. For those under 64, it dropped to 0.5%. For those younger than 15, the researchers found the fatality rate was zero.

That says nothing about how many people under 64 were hospitalized, and/or subsequently lived because of ventilation -- or whether the Chinese were triaging (that is, with fewer respirators than patients, choosing to prioritize younger patients) like the Italians are said to be doing now. It's the overrun of the hospitals, and respirators, that we are hopefully addressing now. New field hospitals are being set up this week in my area, with many hundreds of beds, which are reserved for non-covid19 cases -- we're assuming the hospitals will fill with covid19 patients.

I'll say it again: you, and I, and even the experts who actually study this stuff, don't know the full picture yet. What we do know is that based on incomplete CDC data, 47% of ICU admissions were under 65, 20% of hospital admissions were 22-44.

I didn’t say people under 60 have little to fear. I said HEALTHY people under age 60 are at very low risk of dying, which all the data supports. If the drug trials now underway in New York and elsewhere bear fruit, this statement would be further validated.

So, should the entire population be locked down in their houses for weeks or months, or should we just protect those who are truly at risk of dying, the chronically ill and over-60s ?

This is the result of a poll taken this morning by a major news organization here in the state ,FHN
Do you think Florida should institute a lockdown to halt the spread of COVID-19?
68%
Yes
15%
No
18%
Something less than a total lockdown
14967 Responses

I think the majority is for a lockdown I hope it doesn’t happen

@twentyfive - it would be interesting to see the demographic breakdown of that poll. I think it would be telling.

I didn’t see a breakdown but look online for Florida Headline News

mark: no you didn't say that. What you said exactly is: "Healthy people under 60 are at very low risk". Most people don't consider hospitalization or admission to the ICU to be "very low risk". People under 60 are at much lower risk of dying, but not at risk of serious illness. Yes, as long as we don't have enough hospital capacity and ventilators, a lockdown makes sense. A months-long lockdown is likely not viable. I'd say at least until hospital capacity catches up

I can tell you sentiment in my gated community is more than half are for a shutdown and my community is comprised of all ages with the majority being between 45 and 60 still working many with children in the home

"but not at risk of serious illness"

Sorry -- meant to say, they are not at very low risk of serious illness. The preliminary data, as I said, shows risk of hospitalization and ICU admission that no one would consider "very low risk". If that data changes as more comes in, I'll retract that.

Getting trustworthy data out of China is impossible. Here’s an article that looks at data, such as the number active cell phones and funeral home activity, to speculate that 2 Million Chinese may have died from CoVid.


https://pjmedia.com/trending/report-chin…

The CDC's preliminary data is US based data, although it pretty much aligns with data coming out of other countries, there's no huge surprises. It's preliminary so only covers a fraction of the data. But that is MORE reason not to use a tone of certainty, that people under a certain age are under very low risk, etc. Especially statements like this, "So, in a matter of weeks, there will be a quick way of determining whether someone has the bug and a good chance of inexpensive treatment to shorten the period of sickness, reduce severity of the illness, and improve the mortality." There's no reason to think there's a "good chance" that there will be an inexpensive treatment to shorten the period of sickness, reduce severity of the illness, and improve the mortality, until there's real evidence it's going to happen -- the main reason to postulate this, is because doing so supports the conclusion you want to have. Which is also why, without any data yet, there's jumping through hoops to try to explain away the percentage of hospital admissions.

"... So, should the entire population be locked down in their houses for weeks or months, or should we just protect those who are truly at risk of dying, the chronically ill and over-60s ..."

It seems the virus is fairly contagious - the more contact among people, the more it will spread and one would think this will increase the chances that it will get more into the vulnerable population - I'm no expert, but there doesn't seem to be a middle of ground of "young people should just go and live their lives" - it seems it's a case of trying to eradicate it, or having it get out of control - there may not be a middle-ground.

Jeez - New York is freakin' getting-hammered:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

"it seems it's a case of trying to eradicate it, or having it get out of control - there may not be a middle-ground."

Hopefully, just for a short time. I absolutely positively believe we need to move to a position where we get people back working and just socially distance everyone vulnerable ASAP. But there's no such thing as that if the hospitals are overwhelmed (and if the health system breaks down, ANY trip to the hospital will become a crapshoot). A few weeks of lockdown to ramp up hospital beds, ventilator production, smooth the curve so the health system doesn't otherwise get overwhelmed -- basically do everything we can to not end up looking like Italy does -- is the one way we know of to achieve this.

Are those NY numbers right? 5000 new cases sunday, and another 5000 new cases today? I didn't even think we had the testing capacity to verify that many in a day

"... Are those NY numbers right ..."

If one just Googles "New York Coronavirus" you'll get other articles confirming the #s - e.g.;

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus…

I don't think any country has been able to flatten the curve - South Korea looks like it's getting close but still not flat:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

Ah, Cuomo is saying NY can conduct 16000 tests per day, so it's significantly more testing

NY's woes are troubling in multiple-ways they being the financial-center

Now you have to worry about getting the clap and C19. Not fun!

S Korea flattened the curve with intelligent use of widespread testing. About 30x more testing per capita than we've done:

https://nyti.ms/3aeD35c

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine:

https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-corona…

... haven't heard from @Mark94 lately.

I'm wondering why is Dr. Anthony Fausci not in attendance, while I watch the White House's Daily Covid-19 briefing, that concerns me greatly.

^^ reports of friction b/w the two

^ That's been apparent from the get go, but the man was the only one standing up at that podium with a reputation for telling the truth and not being an ass kisser.

At the press briefing, Dr Birx just signaled what the next phase might involve. She said we have learned a lot about where the virus is this week. Until now, the approach has been “ blunt force”. Now that we have data, the approach will be specific to the region and to the age group ( sound familiar ?).

She said we know from China and South Korea that the cycle of infection in a region takes about 8-10 weeks. In the US, the infection cycle in Washington is about 2 weeks ahead of New York.

Reading between the lines, the next approach will not be too different from the tongue-in-cheek approach that I suggested above.

I am not a Trump fan and I just wish he would let the medical experts speak after giving a succinct intro and then maybe update factual information about logistics of making supplies available. However, many reporters seem to jump on the sensational aspects of the situation by asking leading questions. Fauci was on a morning show and said the President is a lay person and his focus is very different from the medical personnel. I find that to be very true. Trump needs to tone down the misinformation and reporters need to tone down pushing the "doom & gloom" scenario for entertainment value. We all just really want to hear facts.

^ getting Trump to be quiet would be harder than curing the CoronaVirus

Bureaucrats tend to set an expectation that things will be catastrophic. That way, when things don’t, they can take credit.

As good as he is, I think Fauci was setting these expectations. Dr Birx doesn’t have that bureaucratic defense mechanism.

The panic hasn’t peaked yet the good news is we are closer to peaking as the numbers get higher. Assuming your safe, which most are, then levity will begin to set in and markets will calm.

Lucky for those of us in Florida that at least one leader is taking a calm and measured approach to this, which of course is our state's Governor. He seems to have no interest in issuing a "shelter-in=place" mandate, especially given its relatively slow spread here and concentration in places where lots of New Yorkers are still flocking to.

Idiot New Yorkers are still flying into Florida, increasing our risk here. Why are people so stupid?

People aren’t stupid. They are selfish. By escaping the virus hot zone, they improve their chance of surviving by risking the lives of dozens of strangers. They don’t care.

Gov DeSantis issued an executive order earlier today mandating that airline passengers arriving from NYC and surrounding area (presumably EWR- ed) be screened upon arrival and be advised to self quarantine for 2 wks.
Seems similar to what Taiwan and South Korea did- 2 countries with successful containment record without mandating onerous restrictions on it's own citizens.

===> "Gov DeSantis issued an executive order earlier today mandating that airline passengers arriving from NYC and surrounding area (presumably EWR- ed) be screened upon arrival and be advised to self quarantine for 2 wks. "

Yup but "ordered" no advised. He went on to threaten legal consequences for those who don't follow the quarantine order.

”Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine:

www.axios.com

... haven't heard from @Mark94 lately.“


The man ingested chloroquine phosphate, which is used for cleaning pools. The medicine for malaria is hydrochloroquine. Not the same.

There, now you’ve heard from me.

https://medlineplus.gov/druginfo/meds/a6…

"Chloroquine phosphate is in a class of drugs called antimalarials and amebicides. It is used to prevent and treat malaria. "

Nice try.

I still say you should try my homegrown mixture of antifreeze and vinegar. Appears to kill those buggers and has great taste!

And here I thought that keeping a nice high BAC would do the trick. ;)

Thirty minutes after taking the chloroquine phosphate, the couple experienced serious, immediate effects that required them to go to the hospital.

Dr. Daniel Brooks, medical director of the Banner Poison and Drug Information Center, said that the aquarium additive that the couple ingested has the same active ingredients as the anti-malaria drug. However, the formula activated differently than the prescription, Alexis Kramer-Ainza, spokesperson for Banner Health, told BuzzFeed News, making them seriously ill.

Kramer-Ainza confirmed that the couple took the additive because they most likely read about chloroquine online

An Arizona couple was sent to the hospital after they ingested chloroquine phosphate — a chemical compound used to clean fish aquariums — because they suspected it could help prevent coronavirus infections. 

Eat fish tank cleaner, get sick and die. Not be given a prescription drug under the direction of medical professional, so Orange Man Bad.

Besides trump, there's at least one other world-class epidemiologist who thinks hydrochlorquine holds promise. The stories are just anecdotal, and more often than not anecdotal stories don't hold up. But definitely hoping this one does for sure, it's been used as treatments for other diseases so decently safe. note to self: Just don't drink it from your aquarium

"Just don't drink it from your aquarium"

Is Arizona the new Florida?

Good catch, rick, my link was older than yours. While an earlier post suggested some light at the tunnel (re; Gov. reluctance to issue SIP mandate), for some FL cities/counties, the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming the other way in the form of some mayors/commissioners wanting to pursue SIP order.

The anecdotal evidence continues to point up

“Dr. Vladimir Zelenko of NY has treated more than 500 patients with Hydroxychloroquine and has had zero deaths, zero hospitalizations, and zero intubations. He personally witnessed patient difficulty in breathing improve in 4 hours.”

mark: awesome!!!

If it works it’s wonderful, I’m for anything that will help.

I dont think we should fear it. We cant hide in our house every time a pandemic happens. What scares me is not attacking the cause. We should be educating populations globely, not just china about the challenges that may occur when eating wildlife. The population is getting to big for rednecks to eat armadillo, chinese bats/pangolins, and africans eating monkeys. And in the case a virus shows up again people who are succeptible to death (cancer patients, elderly, sick) will need to limit contact with loved ones until we find a cure. We can help pay for them, but we cant shut the world down in solidarity!

I went to Dr. Zelenko's Facebook page. My skepticism went up bigly. Doesn't scream professionalism or clinical expertise, but you can pre-order his forthcoming book.

Scott Adams put forward an interesting in his blog today.

The federal govt should implement a simple point system for whether someone should return to work based on their age and health. Younger adults with no health issues could return to work immediately. Others would continue to isolate depending on the spread of the virus in their community.

Here’s another example of helpful government officials. One month ago, New York City's Health Commissar (and her deputy) tweeted:

Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.

===> "While an earlier post suggested some light at the tunnel (re; Gov. reluctance to issue SIP mandate), for some FL cities/counties, the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming the other way in the form of some mayors/commissioners wanting to pursue SIP order."

It's pretty clear that the FL Governor is not going to issue one statewide and he shouldn't. It is simply not growing much in the vast majority of Florida counties, many suspect due to inhospitable climate conditions. The numbers are growing a bit faster in a SE FL and around Tampa, but even in those place it is arithmetic rather than exponential and likely due mostly to a shit ton more tests being conducted. There is simply no reason to believe that we are facing the same issues swamping the much colder and population dense NY right now - in fact the slow growth suggests otherwise.

Yet every single new positive test result brings more howls from Dems in those more affected areas. The truth is that they have the power to do it themselves for their regions, but they are shameless cowards who want the political cover of a statewide ban. Fuck 'em. How the fuck do you tell a bunch of people in counties all over Florida that they can't pay their bills when their areas have few or even no cases, even after several weeks?

Here’s a story from the U.K. about Londoners trying to escape the virus by going to rural areas. Local residents want them to go back to London. Sounds like New York and Florida.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article…

Grow up you whiny crybabies do something for the common good, and pull your weight, you lazy, self centered bums are not owed a thing. In your short lifetimes things have gotten so easy, many of y'all have forgotten what shared burdens and self sacrifice are. And that is true all across the board.

I'd be interested to know how shutting down counties with no or few cases, and where growth is just not happening, contributes to the "common good."

===> "Here’s a story from the U.K. about Londoners trying to escape the virus by going to rural areas. Local residents want them to go back to London. Sounds like New York and Florida."

Yup. Almost all the new cases are popping up in two counties, both of which are major destinations for New Yorkers.

^ All I hear from you is how much trouble this is causing, Grow up and pull your own weight, when have you ever done a fucking thing to help your country ?

25, to move a conversation forward you need to do more than regurgitate the same comment. Focus old man - your underlying premise was already addressed and you failed to justify it. They say that cross word puzzles are good for keeping the brain active. ;)

^They also say that selfishness is a disease, all I hear out of you is how much this is inconveniencing you, and I'm sure that the crossword puzzle in Highlights for Children is stimulating for you, but please, start acting like an adult stop whining, and man up cowgirl.

@NJBalla “ We should be educating populations globely, not just china about the challenges that may occur when eating wildlife.“

What have you seen that makes you think the virus was transferred to humans by consumption? I’m certainly no doctor but has that ever happened? Outside of The Walking Dead anyway.

I think I heard today that one of those cruise-ships where there was a Corona outbreak, they've found traces of the virus on surfaces 17-days after the ship was disembarked

Animal to Human transmission has been suspected of being the source for many modern viruses, including AIDS. More specifically, A to H transmission in Wuhan has been suspected for at least 20 years.

I am watching De Blasio. He just said that New York will be shut down “ for many, many months” and the only solution is to mobilize the military and take control of industry.

So, either Trump is right or De Blasio is right. I guess we’ll see.

Clinical trial showing that Chloroquin (and two other drugs) no better than placebo:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia…

... contradicting leading scientific authorities Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham.

The recommended treatment is Hydroxychloroquine, Zpac, and Zinc in a specific dose. Doesn’t sound like they tested that. Hundreds of patients are now getting that combination in New York. We should have our answer by Monday.

@mcnulty many times. HIV, ebola, SARS....

The Indian government on Wednesday banned export of anti-malarial drug hydroxycloroquine, with immediate effect to ensure sufficient availability of the medicine in the domestic market.

@ Random: The problem with that article is where it says "Chinese clinical trials" i.e. you can't believe a word of it.

Why doesn’t deBlasio get Cuomo to mobilize NY National Guard? I thought governor could do that for state emergency without fed involvement

^ If the National Guard doesn’t have any medical supplies what good will that do?

@NJBalla and @mark94 - specifically from eating an infected animal? I thought animal to human transmission typically meant respiratory and bodily fluids, not eating meat?

I read an article that explained that simply because a surface has traces of the coronavirus doesn’t make it likely that you can catch it by having contact. It needs to be above a certain concentration, not just a trace, to be transmittable.

NEWS ALERT: Only 27,890 more Corona deaths before it will equal this season's flu deaths. NEWS ALERT.

Or, by way of comparison for the USA

Annual STD cases: 2.4 Million
Cumulative CoVid 19 infections: 450,000

Covid 19 is Covid 19 - I think is erroneous & counterproductive to compare it to x, y, z, condition

Well how do you think things are looking?

My aunt (who's in her 60s like my dad, but she is overweight so probably some underlying health issues), is currently hospitalized after having typical COVID 19 symptoms; her test results came back positive. They have been keeping her on oxygen the last few days and she texted our family to keep us updated saying they're leaning towards a ventilator.

Worst part? She is the caretaker of my adopted uncle who has Down Syndrome and other health issues (had a stroke which put him into a coma for a while several months ago). He has tested positive as well and is literally dying in the hospital. His heart stopped, no one is allowed to visit him of course except for one family member to say goodbye. My aunt has no idea he even has it, as we don't want to tell her until she is recovered.

We're on lockdown, so obviously we won't even be able to give him a proper funeral. I just found out about my uncle today so it's been a rough one.

Fuck anyone saying this isn't a big deal or making light of this. It IS a big deal, especially for high risk people who healthy folks like myself could unknowingly spread it to.

Sorry to hear about your uncle and hope your aunt makes a speedy recovery.

Thank you. I just can't imagine her being so happy to have recovered only to find out her brother is dead (he will die at any moment at this point).

And with her being his caretaker after my grandparents passed, he lives with her and he was closer to her than anyone else. She will be devastated. My heart is breaking not just for my uncle, but for her. She cares about him so much.

Fuck this :(

You’ve had a lot of family stuff thrown at you over the years Nina. Sorry that the first one on the board to have first hand experience with it was you. Wish you would’ve been back for a better reason.

Here in FL step 1 is to keep those dirty New Yorkers from rushing down here by train, plane and automobile to keep them from more rapidly spreading the infection here.

Then we may need to cordon off Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Hillsborough counties. If NYC is any lesson, those folks will likely start running for better locations if things get too bad where they are. I live in a gorgeous area with only a tiny number of infections even after all these weeks - the last thing we need is for carriers to start coming here in droves.. This also has the nice benefit of keeping those New Yorkers locked in since these are the counties they most often flock to.

Anyway, just spitballing.

This new way of life isn’t easy to adapt to. How do you remind yourself to practice social distancing?

One trick you could use is to be so obnoxious that people automatically avoid you. A technique that I’ve seen used with much success is to pick a popular subject and form an opinion that is contrary to the popular opinion. Make this your single most important issue. Bring it up any time a conversation is even remotely related to this pet topic. It’s best if you take a condescending and confrontational tone.

I’ll use the topic of lap dances as a totally random example. Your opinion could be that they are not a good idea. If you come up with some catchy phrases you can just repeat those like a broken record.

If someone brings up anything related to strippers or strip clubs you’ve got a free pass to use your phrases, but don’t stop there. If someone talks about their daughter’s dance recital or that their dog likes to sit in their lap you can work it in to the conversation. You can get even more play time if you work puns and rhymes in as well.

If you follow these tips people will quickly start to ignore you.

Anyone else have any tips?

Serious replies only

You forgot to add SJG to the end.

"Wish you would’ve been back for a better reason."

Anything to pass the time, we're on lockdown over here. As I said on another thread I've taken up puzzles as of last night. I'm working on a pretty 1000 piece beach house landscape one. I've also been cooking a lot more which is a plus, and exercising. Anything to pass the time.

I am worried though. Not for myself, but for loved ones. And I'm really pissed. I hope I don't hear a story like that from anyone I know. But I'm in a suburb of Detroit, it's spreading like wildfire. I also have an older cousin (40s) who had it. She was just told to stay home and she did and she's recovered now.

Anyone else I know* is what I meant. Like one tragedy is quite enough, I prayed this wouldn't affect my family when this was first being reported and now I'm so worried. It's not even the people who are sick now who will mostly die, it's the ones those people will infect. Because that is the wave where the ventilators will already be occupied.

According to Governopr Cumo and the Democrats NYC deserves every ventilator in the country and you don't get any. Hope your family stays safe and is well: This applies to everyone.

"Hope your family stays safe and is well: This applies to everyone."

You really had to post that after I posted that I have two families hospitalized and one is not going to live, and might even. E dead already. Cool.

Family members*

Wow. Skibum, you're a fucking dick.

Via Mark94:
"Or, by way of comparison for the USA

Annual STD cases: 2.4 Million
Cumulative CoVid 19 infections: 450,000"

What the fuck does that matter? The "S" in STD stands for "sexually;" STDs are sexually transmitted (or via sharing needles for the bloodborne ones). Like, you actually need to engage in sex to contract them, which requires way more close contact than a virus that lives in droplets when people cough. Wtf is wrong with your brain?

Furthermore, STDs either has a cure or an effective anti-viral treatment. Even people with HIV are expected to live full, healthy lives if they take their anti-viral medication. COVID19 is new (hence the 19 standing for 2019), and we haven't developed effective anti-virals to treat it. How is that comparable to STD transmission or treatment?

And skibum, why don't take your wife's hand and shove it up your asshole.

I am terribly sorry for your situation, Nina.
Wishing you the best.

Most rational people fear the virus.
Some blame "the others".
Ignorance probably.

Here's an article about a young and ignorant idiot that caught the virus:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/21-year-ol…

I think now she "gets it".

Wow, still a one-dimensional, narcissistic bitch.

My brother just emailed a video w.r.t. the situation in Spain - due to the lack of respirators they are making the decision to disconnect age-65+ patients from them and letting them die so the respirators available can he used for younger people - the only thing they do for these age-65+ folks is sedate them until they die (alone bc family cannot be at their side) - I would put the link to the video but it's in Spanish.

The US is approaching 100,000 cases - Italy is on it's way to 10,000 deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

"Wow, still a one-dimensional, narcissistic bitch."

I thought you put me on ignore after you started an argument with me and I shat on your face in return...

Best wishes to you and your family, Nina. That’s a tough situation.

Thank you Hunstman.

We will get through this.

@Nina losing a loved one is hard enough already but to do it while not being able to hug and kiss them goodbye one last time is even harder. That's a reality with this virus. If you have it and you are going to die, that's how you'll end - through Facetime or Skype with those closest to you.

Stay strong and my heart goes out to you.

Thanks. My cousin is a young, new ER doctor in Chicago (coincidentally the daughter of my aunt who is here in a MI hospital with it) and my cousin has said that for the last week the only patients she has had to treated are people with either gunshot wounds (because it's Chicago) and people with suspected COVID19 cases, whether positive or not. That is literally all she's been dealing with in the last week.

She actually shared with me something from a hospital here in Michigan where they are already putting out memos that they will not give people with terminal illnesses, severe underlying issues like organ failure, (etc) ventilators; they will instead basically give them hospice meds and care while they die instead of treating them. I do not want it to become triage like... in Italy, they were/are deciding who lives and dies as they assess people soon as they get to the hospital; one hospital in MI is already stating that they're basically doing the same, which means other hospitals are too and this will become the norm in the next week or two.

Going back to the original assertions that this thread started with, a week ago:

------- quote
Two developments this week:
1. There is now a 45 minute test for Coronavirus using equipment already in place at most hospitals. The supplies needed for this test will start rolling out in about a week.
2. Early research and small sample tests suggest that Chloroquine can significantly benefit patients with CoVid. Larger sample tests are already underway in Wuhan and elsewhere.

So, in a matter of weeks, there will be a quick way of determining whether someone has the bug and a good chance of inexpensive treatment to shorten the period of sickness, reduce severity of the illness, and improve the mortality.
------------- end quote

1. the ability for "most hospitals" to do all the testing they need, is not in sight yet, much less available a week later, as per #1

2. there remains no convincing evidence that chloroquine is helpful



As anyone who is data driven -- rather than trying to grasp at and interpret any data in a way to support the conclusion they already have -- realizes, there was never a "good chance" either of these things would happen.

Just think it's worth going back to the original context of the thread occasionally.

^ I'm trying to keep my comments civil so my response will not be typed in

Ugh. Nina that's heartbreaking. I'm sorry to hear your bad luck. I have dozens of stories of people I know that don't take this seriously. Can't they take it seriously for other's? People need to exercise critical thinking and take responsibility for their lives. I'm sick of stupid.

I stand by my OP.

I said that it would be a matter of weeks for hospitals to do 45 minute CoVid tests. These tests have been approved by the FDA and it’s just a matter of getting supplies to hospitals. Faster, pin prick, tests are in the pipeline.

I said there was a good chance of inexpensive treatment ( I didn’t specify a timeline for this ). There are over 100 treatments being worked on, including Hydroxychloroquine.

@mark94 the point is that you are still speculating on both 1&2 in your OP. It's good to have hope and all, but nobody including you can say we have a proven 45 min test (and a good supply chain for it) and chloroquine or any antidote/cure is proven too (and there's a good supply chain for it). Why not wait at least until your hopes are a true reality before changing anything?

Take Zinc! Can’t hurt might help!

To be clear, I'm rooting for you, not me. I'm hoping to come back and eat my words in a week. Mark called it, inexpensive easy treatment ready, 45 minutes tests available for all 300000+ people who need it (we're at 100,000 even with limited testing), we're over the peak. But the answer the important question: until there's evidence that these things have come to pass, absolutely no reason to rethink the shelter in place. Arguably, what we should all be screaming for is test availability, and the data to make data-driven decisions from there; probably to include considering how to direct resources for other critical needs such as safety equipment, ventilators, etc

@Subra amen. "Hope for the best. Expect the worst." is an old adage for a reason.

^ and in my world..."Data talks. Bullshit walks."

Here’s an article describing a hospital that has ordered the 45 minute test. It should arrive at the hospital next week. Is this enough data ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mrt.com…

Here’s an article indicating that a much faster, performed at home, pin prick test will be available in the U.K. within days.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busines…

Here’s an article describing at least 12 existing medicines that are being evaluated for treating CoVid. Work is progressing at unprecedented speed.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/3…

That's all great @mark94 but I'm waiting for all the articles and data that say these things are actually working in NYC and Washington and any of the other areas that currently have overtaxed health care systems and don't yet have all these great solutions.

So no, it's not enough data. But it is promising!

Strongly agree. It is a promising start, but one hospital placing an order, and in theory receiving their tests next week, is not what anyone is talking about. Evidence of Widespread availability of tests, at scale, is definitely a necessary but not sufficient condition for us to be changing the dialogue, IMO

You’re a tough jury.

Most of the world is still behind the 8-ball on this - to start making assertions or predictions about getting back to normal life when there's no sign of things getting any better and actually are getting worse, is believing in unicorns at best, and malpractice at worst.

The only sorta reliable data we have is that those areas that got a jump-start on this and were aggressive w/ it early-on, vs assuming/hoping it wouldn't be so bad, those areas have fared much better.

Call me a pessimist but as an engineer I am pitched many great solutions and "data" to fix my systems' problems...some of them work exactly as advertised but some of them don't. At the end of the day they prove themselves out with data that shows they work or don't work...in REAL WORLD PRACTICE.

>You’re a tough jury.<

You keep making promises with your mouth that your ass can't keep.

We have 100k cases. If the malaria drug plus zipak (sp?) were a miracle cure don’t you think some doc and some patient’s family would’ve tried it and we’d have heard about it more? Or any of the other treatments under consideration?

They are working on a treatment. Lots of smart people in lots of countries. I’m fairly certain that as soon as they find a cure I’ll see it reported. I’m fairly also certain that it won’t be Tuscl that scoops the story.

I don't think they'll find a "cure," for it, just like there is no cure for a flu or the common cold, which this virus also causes. I think treatment is a better word. We need to at least develop some effective anti-virals for this particular strain, because there are none since it is so new.

===> "The only sorta reliable data we have is that those areas that got a jump-start on this and were aggressive w/ it early-on, vs assuming/hoping it wouldn't be so bad, those areas have fared much better."

Really? I think that the residents in many FL counties would disagree with this. Yes we have over 3,100 cases in FL, but over 1,900 of them are from 4 counties and those counties have been the most aggressive in addressing this by far. I think a far better metric in measuring "success" in dealing with this is population density, which is largely outside of the politicos' control. It explains why NYC is getting swamped despite jumping on this earlier than just about any city in this country.

@Nina you raised some good points. We also need to include purel bottles in each LD room to help quell any fears this summer. Should we invest in purel or the brand below.
I have had 5 successful OTC encounters. A lot of the girls are hurting and would appreciate if a few customers would text them via thier instagram. I made a screenshot of thier instagram names which can be found below:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BG48ENgCEAAI…

The 45 minute test is already outdated. Now, there’s a 5 minute test. Coming soon to a hospital near you.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

^ And what makes you more of an expert on the "facts" than they are? It has been in Florida for weeks but is growing slowly in most counties. As the military would say, there are theories and then there are "facts on the ground."

^ You claim to be utterly ignorant, yet in the next breath claim to be in the position to judge the opinions of others. See the contradictions there? 😉

Here’s an interesting fact. In the 2018-2019 winter flu season, there were over 800,000 hospitalized and over 60,000 deaths from flu. So far, in the 2019-2020 winter flu season, there have been 565,000 hospitalizations and about 35,000 deaths from flu/CoVid. Now, those numbers will grow, but at this point we simply don’t know if they will exceed the prior year. For those arguing there is no proof that CoVid will be brought under control, the hard data indicates that, so far, the prior year’s flu was worse. Beyond that, it’s a matter of either panic or hope, not data.

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-bl…

We never should have to begin with

^ So now after over 200 responses and 2 weeks we are left with your original points still not corroborated by any evidence whatsoever, your new argument is the equivalent of an apples to oranges comparison and other posters thinking opinions are the equivalent of fact, let’s face it the majority opinion here, is either rong or just loudest.

I made 2 claims, that there would soon be a 45 minute test and that there was a good chance of a treatment. The first has been proven and the second is still true. There is, indeed, a good chance that one of the dozens of meds being tested will result in a treatment. I don’t need to prove an actual treatment exists for my hopeful statement to be true.

===> "You suggested that someone is wrong because the residents of a particular geographic region might disagree. It’s a totally goofy way to make a point. It’s the sort of thing said by people who argue just for the sake of argument"

FLF, I'm suggesting that people in a county without a single freakin' case might, for example, feel that a less drastic approach to managing exposure is warranted. I guess I had to make this point painfully obviously. Now re-review my earlier posts in light of this painfully spelled out point and hopefully everything will be more clear for you. ;)

Except fpr working less and screwing more our lives are the same, so who fucking cares...

RickiBoi what county hasn’t got “a single frickin case” and how would you know that did you test a large enough sample size or is that your gut feeling
You really need to calm down

" that there would soon be a 45 minute test"

No, you implied that it would very quickly be available at scale, and justified rethinking whether we should still shelter in place or drop it right now, because of the mere existenceo f that test. You implied the same about a cure -- your suggestion we should re-think sheltering in place NOW, is based on it. Neither of those are true. The real problem here is that you want to tie things that might come to pass in weeks or months (all the tests needed available at scale, a cure available at scale) into re-thinking shelter-in-place now. You're absolutely wrong on both your contentions, and 1000x wrong on whether we should have dropped shelter-in-place a week ago (when you posted), wrong now. We shouldn't re-think policy based on what-might-be's

So, here’s what I ASKED:

“Given all this, does it still make sense to have everyone shelter in place ? “

I still think it’s a question worth asking. Especially since the key word is “everyone”.

And the answer is, IN GENERAL, the promise that problems will be solved sometime in the future, but might not be, is never a reason to change a policy now. It makes no sense. Nor were you "right" about your predictions. It is insane you're still standing by all this man. Why not just say, "yes, the things I hoped would have happened have not happened yet, I jumped the gun". Would totally respect that. As I promised last week, I'm happy to do the same if my arguing with Rick's theory that people would be in open rebellion to the shelter in place by now (or next week max) doesn't pan out.

There is nothing that I’ve said that has been shown to be wrong. Either I was right ( quick testing ) or, on things where I didn’t predict a timetable ( treatment ), it just hasn’t happened yet, or I was raising a question ( partially ending quarantine ).

Nothing for me to apologize for.

You don't need to apologize regardless. We'll all be wrong about things, "I was wrong on that one" isn't an apology, it's a recognition of that. But your re-framing is ridiculous. The existence of a 45-minute test was widely known and nothing to take credit for. The whole purpose of this thread is that you think its mere existence (rather than rolling out at scale, which did not take a week, question is whether it will take a month or much longer) is enough to re-think everything. Look at the initial post where you cited two things which have had no im pact yet, as a reason to have a discussion to re-think.

When there is an indication that 45-minute tests, and a cure, are rolling out at scale, that's a great time to have that conversation. I think you picked on the right thing -- testing to generate data-driven decisions, and a cure -- with delusional timing

Sorry, "delusional" is too strong. "premature".

FLF/25, the preference is for our government not to panic until there is a verified reason to do so.

Side topic: heat map of where all those spring breakers went: https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1… (watch & listen w/ sound)

I can't vouch for the veracity of Tectonix; this story is being cited widely in the media, along with the fact that groups of spring breakers have tested positive. In retrospect of all this, when we have the data, it will be interesting to see how the open beach policies impacted and ignited everywhere else (if they did), the way NYers are perhaps kicking up FL's rates.

FL's known cases still low at 3700ish, but from Tuesday to Friday, went from 240 cases diagnosed to about 750 yesterday, so triple in 4 days, which is roughly on track with the double-every-3-days that is commonly seen. 565 new cases today in FL, so far. So about on the usual rate.

Sorry, forgot the heatmap: https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1… I'm searching around to see if it's possible this company could really collect this data

Sub, 2100 of those cases are in 3 SE Florida counties and another 400 are from two tourist cities (Tamps and Orlando). That leaves 1300 spread over the remaining 62 counties.

Also keep in mind that:
> FL has a population of 22 million people, so on a per capita basis that number is low.
> Some of the earliest identified have likely already recovered.
> A lot of these jumps are coming from dramatically increased testing run by the FL National Guard and others.

Rick, your last two points apply across the board -- increased rates include increased testing, for example, but the rate continues unabated.

In any case, in all honesty, I think the beaches -- particularly those populated by spring breakers -- are what everyone on the east coast should be worried about. Although I think the big beaches are closed?

Yes, except that certain smaller counties with small case counts and less tourist traffic have chosen to keep their beaches open.

RickiBoi the population of the five counties you mentioned is over 9 million add in the population of Duval county you have half of the states population, and dispersal throughout the entire state, your assumptions won't hold up very well when you consider Orlando is in the center of the state and most of the folks getting the virus are asymptomatic, and travel all over Florida without restriction, doing business like me in all counties of the state of Florida, plus Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and a number of other states in the region . You have an awful lot of assumptions to make and they need evidence, not opinions.
Look on a map you'll see the three southern counties, then Tampa on the west coast Orlando in the center, then Jacksonville on the northeast, I95 runs the east corridor I75 the west and I believe I35 runs across the middle it's inevitable that it spreads unless travel is restricted, like I said opinions aren't facts.

Fear No
Adapt Yes. Stay in the primal Cave, we can scramble to fix the economy when the threat is past.

I'll listen to the medical experts and not just schmucks and baby tyrants with empty promises who want to throw us under the bus to expand their portfolios.

@Sub - Saw the Textonic heatmap too. Similar ? as you. Interested in any further info you find out.
IMO; the leap from GPS tracking of location of mobile devices once within 6 feet of each other on a particular FL beach to possibly infected humans carrying those devices to infected humans spreading the infection seems possible but tenuous. Moreover, the number tracked may be too small for meaningful extrapolation to much larger pop.

Seems to me we are all involuntary participants in the middle of a giant novel pandemic virus experiment.
Our view as 'lab rats' running the pandemic maze is narrow and biased as we run madly toward our individual goal reward.
The Experimenter has a different picture and a better understanding of the results.

Removal of social distancing is simply going to increase the rate and chances of it spreading as long as an area has the virus. So even within a low population density area it's going to spread at whatever rate through that area. And the relative rate of the spread will still be a function of social distancing. It's really this simple.

So now is the question is whether or not it is worth it for an area considering all the factors. NYC? It's probably a no brainer given that there hospitals are going to be overtaxed and this will cause related deaths for those that can't get treatment for anything regardless of it being virus related. And those FL counties? Personally I'd like to see the projection on the number of deaths in that area from the economic hit it will take because of social distancing. Then we could compare that to the rate of deaths of the virus and see which is the greater "evil". There's so much talk about data and projections on the virus side. Why not evaluate and get data on the economic impact side, including it's death rate. Where's that data or model?

"the leap from GPS tracking of location of mobile devices once within 6 feet of each other on a particular FL beach to possibly infected humans carrying those devices to infected humans spreading the infection seems possible but tenuous. Moreover, the number tracked may be too small for meaningful extrapolation to much larger pop."

joker, agree. I don't think there's any strong claims being made. It's just a claim of "here's where the spring breakers returned to". I don't think we'll have data for months, if ever, on the conclusions we all naturally draw -- lots of spring breakers in close contact, spread covid19 around and brought it back to their local cities. There's already news stories of groups of spring breakers who partied together and all subsequently tested positive, but that's isolated data.

Sub: ✔

===> "it's inevitable that it spreads unless travel is restricted, like I said opinions aren't facts."

I guess you missed the irony of presenting an opinion as if it was a biblical fact and then accusing someone else of doing the same in the very same sentence.

But here are two facts:
- It is spreading much slower here than in NY despite the fact that there is no statewide shutdown.
- The half of the population you identified in those 6 counties represent 2/3 of all cases in Florida and also happen to be the most population dense.
- Scientists are increasingly starting to believe that this COVID-19 has weather sensitivity similar to the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.

Hence I continue to support a more measured approach to this. If things blow up exponentially in any particular county instead of its current arithmetic growth then lock it down, but otherwise a balance between economic health and optimal medical safety is the best approach for the overwhelming majority of the 22 million people in Florida who are likely never going to get this.

Oops - that was three facts under the "two facts" label. My bad.

Rick, you weren't replying to me, but jsut on this one: "- It is spreading much slower here than in NY despite the fact that there is no statewide shutdown." That is factually incorrect, at least based on the numbers I've seen. The confirmed case rate, I just posted the official numbers: it has tripled in 4 days. That is roughly on par with most areas. It seems to have started later, so overall rates are way way behind NY, NJ, Washington, etc., but you are on the exact same curve as most places. Yesterday's confirmed cases were 714, you are at 565 as of right now (4pm) today. CA new cases were 776 yesterday, currently at 189 today. FL is on an exponential curve, although NY's is probably a bit worse curve

A pleasant existence blinds us to the possibilities of drastic change. We cling to what we call our *common sense*, our *practical point of view*. But these are just names for an all-absorbing familiarity with things as they usually are.

These vibrant memories of a pleasant and secure existence make other realities, however imminent, seem vague and visionary. So it happens that when the times become unhinged, it is the *practical people* who are caught unaware and are made to look like visionaries who cling to things that no longer exist.

based on Eric Hoffer, The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements

Sub, it's been here for almost as long. It's not even a question that our growth rates are slower, as are those in TX and AZ. Google it if you need to. They are finding more as testing continues to ramp up and I won't claim zero new transmission here, but on a per capita basis warm weather states are faring much better than NY, which has the misfortune of still hosting the ideal cold weather conditions in which cold and flu viruses flourish.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/healt…

^ To illustrate.

Yeah, warm weather is pretty much the only explanation I can come up with since the pandemic coincided with our tourist season in Arizona.

My plans to retire in Arizona remain a high priority

@Subra note that India is pretty warm too. Initially they had a low number of cases too. But now they are shut down too.

I was thinking customs are a factor too. In Italy the common greeting is a kiss on each cheek. Italy also had a high rate of spread.

Well as a real response to the warm weather causing it to slow down a bit, I certainly hope so, but the evidence remains that the three counties most affected right now in this state are in the part of the state that is south of the sub-tropical zone which starts on the east coast in I believe in Jupiter at the northern end of Palm Beach County, the actual tropic of cancer where the Tropics begin passes just north of Key West

Arizona will be a good test of the heat theory since the temps will be at or near 90 this coming week.

At the risk of being accused of racism, NY, SF, LA, and Seattle have a sizable Chinese community. Probably lots of back and forth travel to China until the shutdown.

The city of Phoenix interests me the most. Also Yuma's data will be interesting being one of the hottest cities in the US let alone state.

One area that supports the heat theory is Australia. The spread of the virus took place during their summer. Their economy and universities are closely linked to China. I was in Sydney not long ago and half the people I saw in the Central Business District were Asian. But, the virus has yet to take off there with only 14 deaths.

Yes 25, even in warmer areas, places with greater population density experience greater spread. But I doubt that anyone in Miami would like to trade places with those in NYC right now.

Rick: just a note, the headline on the article you sent me to is: "Nature may help diminish the pandemic if aggressive measures to control the spread of infections continue, experts say." There is also very little disagreement about aggressive measures being needed. But good news on the main thrust of the article: slower in hotter areas, probably.

Anyway, on the rate, I am saying it is a FACT that new infections have tripled in 4 days in FL (I started looking at Florida stats on Tuesday when you claimed FL was linear; one 4-day stretch doesn't mean it's a long-term trend, I'm just saying that it is a fact that during the 4 days I watched, it was exponential at around the same level as everywhere else. NYC may well be higher than everywhere else). We can try to explain it with increased testing, etc., but the exact same explanation applies in every other area also, and in those areas, "double every 3 days" tends to continue. More good news if it doesn't

@subraman my suspicion is that the places with more and better public transportation, like NYC, the outer boroughs, as well as Chicago, San Francisco, Nola is another, will have a greater increase of virus than those areas where most commuters drive their own vehicles, that is going to be an increasing problem.

A nurse in Miami's largest hospital (Jackson Memorial) has died from Covid-19

25: this is also a sobering moment for as-a-service models. Hypotheticals about "the future of automobiles is autos as-a-service" (whether uber/lyft or a car sharing service) thought a huge part of the industry would go that route. Now, who in their right mind wouldn't have at least ONE car they personally own? No way I'd ever depend on my sole mode of transportation being either public or service-based

Below is a fairly comprehensive data-set from the Florida Department of Health w.r.t. Covid-19 including breakdowns per county, # of people tested, etc:

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdas…

From another website blog commenter: Please, Let’s Stop the Epidemic of Armchair Epidemiology
"An article which might amuse some readers here:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/arm…

It's about the phenomenon of Very Smart People -- who happen to be pig-ignorant about epidemiology -- showing great confidence that their own analyses and forecasts of the present pandemic are better than those of people who've devoted their careers studying and monitoring infectious disease transmission, and epidemics in particular."

Tidbits from the article: Ignore the people misconstruing their expertise and offering false certainty.

As one Twitter user quipped, “Coronavirus can cause a hacking cough. As a software engineer, I know a thing or two about hacking.

Just because you can analyze data doesn’t mean you should

....................
We now return you to your regularly scheduled TUSCL Bullshitters Forum

Well - no doubt the U.S. is now the hot-spot in the world with by far the most # of new cases (with half of new-cases being in NY and NJ)

^ Also if you look on that map Papi you will notice the average age of the fatalities across this state has been in folks under 50

The first death in Miami-Dade county was a 40 y/o guy in excellent shape (ripped muscles and all)

From the article cited above:
One reason back-of-the-envelope hot takes are thriving is that the science of ongoing epidemics is inherently uncertain. And in the U.S., the testing fiasco has only amplified that uncertainty. How many people have the new coronavirus? How many people will become infected and never know? How likely are they to spread it? What role do children play? What is the actual death rate? These are crucial data, and we simply don’t have reliable estimates right now. In addition, how societies behave feeds back into the epidemic’s severity, adding another layer of uncertainty. The way the virus behaves in China or Italy will be different from how it behaves here, depending on what we do. The only thing we know for sure is that things continue to change rapidly, which also means that in these circumstances, anyone claiming certainty is suspect.

I had been seeing images of NYC where people were standing in line in the elements close to each other for hours waiting to get tested - I was SMH thinking distancing is supped to be the #1 recommendation yet these folks seem to be putting themselves in harms-way trying to get help - in Miami testing is done by folks staying in their cars but NYC is just a different situation.

From the article cited above:
These posts may be coming in response to an epidemic, but they reflect the alternative facts problem endemic to American political psychology—just now with a pernicious quantitative twist. As public opinion about the appropriate response to the pandemic becomes—predictably and depressingly—hyperpolarized, people are falling in line. There’s a growing movement in conservative circles to end the shelter-in-place directives and a growing insistence in liberal circles to keep them in place. Earlier this week, trending on Twitter were #ReopenAmerica (among conservatives) and #NotDyingForWallStreet (among liberals). With the help of the president, we’re watching the conversation devolve into a false dichotomy between saving the economy and preserving public health. In this escalating din, I hear the familiar refrains of the culture wars. Posts like [ the examples of armchair epidemiology cited in this article ] entrench each side further, because now each side gets to claim its own set of settled “facts.”

*In reality, a rapidly developing pandemic requires we tolerate some amount of uncertainty.*

This is a pic of the first Miami-Dade Covid-19 casualty - he was 40 and looked in excellent shape:

https://images.app.goo.gl/qdVHZzrL4KKXHS…

@joker44
>With the help of the president, we’re watching the conversation devolve into a false dichotomy between saving the economy and preserving public health. In this escalating din, I hear the familiar refrains of the culture wars. <

It's hardly devolving, its been politicized from the beginning, our POTUS originally called this a hoax designed to get him, and is still refusing to acknowledge the facts as laid out by his own team.

I'd like to see the conversation turn to one of "under what conditions can we make a smart decision to 're-open'?" No matter what "side" you're on, what should be bothering you is that we can't make data-driven decisions (and the epidemiologists can't make fully data-driven recommendations) because, among other things, the lack of testing at scale means a lack of data. The re-open America people should be SCREAMING, more loudly than anyone, to turn the economy towards test kit, safety equipment, and (to the extent possible) ventilator production, because without those things, no re-opening is about to happen. Instead, we hear none of that, and just repeated bleating to re-open; it's the crowd being more cautious that is screaming for more focus on tests, etc. It doesn't make any sense, this should be an area of common cause.

"under what conditions can we make a smart decision to 're-open'?"

@Subra this is my contention as well. One of mine, #1 actually, is when we have a rate of testing for it that exceeds the rate of detecting the virus. It's only until then when we'll know the true infection rate of this thing. Also this will help put confidence around the death rate stat as well.

The best thing that can be done for the economy is to get Covid-19 under control - a couple of months of economic hardship IMO will turn-out to be a bleep down-the-line in the future - it feels to me the side-effects of opening things up prematurely would turn-out to be more problematic than a couple of months of financial pain

Various interesting news from Medscape, in their newsletter (aimed at physicians):
- Reports of Plans being made to ration ventilators. the director of the Health and Human Services' Office of Civil Rights (OCR) announced they were opening investigations into the complaints. The OCR also issued a six-page bulletin to outline civil-rights statutes as they applied to the current situation, which states that those with disabilities "should not be denied medical care on the basis of stereotypes, assessments of quality of life, or judgements about a person's relative 'worth' based on the presence or absence of disabilities."

- Tension over Hydroxychloroquine: Even while hydroxychloroquine remains unproven for treating COVID-19, supplies of the drug have already dwindled. That's prompted some physicians to try and reassure patients who rely on the medication to prevent lupus or other rheumatic-disease flare-ups that it will remain available for them. Right now, there are only the "thinnest threads" of evidence that hydroxychloroquine or any other available medication are effective against the virus

- Mark94++ testing kits coming up! After 2 months of setbacks, COVID-19 diagnostics in the US finally got a win. A new test, just approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, can deliver COVID-19 results within minutes and can be used at the point of care in hospitals, urgent care centers, and physicians' clinics. Abbott Laboratories, which created the test, says they can begin distribution of the tests next week and plans to manufacture 50,000 of the tests per day.

^ So if that's true by next week and three days, there should be 150,000 test kits which will catch up the # of tests to about where the number of confirmed cases are, which was roughly 100,000 on Friday.

We shall see what things are like in 2 weeks....

There are now many different manufacturers and types of test kit. Roche is currently delivering 400,000 per week. I believe other manufacturers are delivering in volume as well.

And, unlike the Chinese test kits that Europe was relying on, that turned out to have an 80% failure rate, the US versions are accurate.

The federal government currently has 10,000 ventilators in reserve. New York wants them all.

The first 4,000 were delivered to the NYC main distribution center and, after many days, NY officials had not distributed any to hospitals. After being called out on this, they have begun distribution.

Perhaps partly because of this, the Feds are holding the ventilators until a community, whether NY or another city, approaches 100% use of the ones it already has. They don’t want to just give them to NY then discover a greater need someplace like New Orleans.

Yes

The French have completed a study that supports the use of Hydroxychloroquine.

Yes,yes, I know. Small sample. Not enough data. It’s Trump’s idea so it can’t be right.


https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coro…

@mark94 you don't have to make it about Trump's idea being the issue at all. The issue is...

"Small sample. Not enough data."

It really is this simple. One a proven solution is out there working IN REAL LIFE then there will be much less to fear. It's not complicated.

And, more good news about a possible treatment. No, it isn’t a proven solution with a triple blind study of one million diverse patients but, shit, couldn’t we all use some good news and a little hope right about now ?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/coronaviru…

My uncle passed this morning; I recited my Hail Mary's with a family member I'm hunkering with since my uncle was Catholic; my aunt is still hospitalized, but recovering. Those are cases from my dad's side of the family. On my mom's side, my older cousin (40s) recovered without hospitalization. Now another cousin has contracted it, I am not even sure if she went to the hospital but she is also recovering (she's young and healthy, only a couple years older than me, and it still kicked her ass just like a really bad flu would).

So we should still fear it in a cautionary way, instead of panicking. It actually is quite serious. What's more serious is hospitals sending memos basically saying that they will refuse treatment to the unhealthy folks... the triage is going to start soon like it did in Italy, where people are assessed at the hospital and then the doctors will determine who lives and who dies. US hospitals are already near capacity. The next three weeks are going to be very rough, then I think things will lighten up, but those three weeks will include many unnecessary deaths because we simply don't have the equipment to care for everyone who needs it.

Damn, that's tough.
Sorry for your loss.

Mark, I'm actually fascinated to know what you think the reaction to the French study should be? No one is saying to ignore it -- but I'm not sure you understand how science works. The results of uncontrolled small studies (which is what this was) are something you think justifies re-thinking policies? It's great that there are positive signs, but the only thing this study tells us is, there's reason to do a bigger, controlled, better-constructed study. This study you're talking about was 36 patients, excluded anyone who went to the ICU or died, showed only that there was reduced viral shedding WITHOUT showing correlation with reduced clinical changes. Clinical changes -- fewer or reduced symptoms, fewer people dying, fewer people going to the ICU, fewer people going to the hospital, etc., -- are in the end what matters.

This small uncontrolled French study does not remotely justify changing the social policy -- laughable to suggest it might be so last week when you posted, as laughable right now. Yes, it indicates more study is warranted, but not policy change, man! As far as the actual epidemiologists, actual professional experts on this seem to think remdesivir (currently being used in trials in China) as an antiviral and mabs such as tocilizumab that moderate the cytokine storm hold more promise, but there is absolutely reason to continue studying hydroxychloroquine too.

But your notion that people are not supporting broad policy change based on hydroxychloroquine because Trump, rather than it being a tiny uncontrolled study that did not prove clinical improvement, is not realistic. This study is a bit of hopeful news -- maybe hydroxychlorquinine will be proven to actually help (or not) in upcoming weeks

Ah, I posted that before you posted leronimab results. If you're just framing this as "good news" that's awesome, I agree. But this thead is about policy change, so that's how I interpreted your initial post on hydroxychloroquine. Excuse me if that's not what you were implying

I'm really sorry to hear, Nina. ):

Thanks. I'm sad, but at least he's not suffering anymore. He had a host of underlying health issues and had been suffering for the last several months before COVID19. He died due to COVID19 complications, but I'm glad he isn't suffering anymore and he lived a life surrounded by love. ❤

To go along with my earlier contention that rather than blindly guessing about whether we should change policies, but instead focus on "what would need to happen in order to change policy" and then do a concentrated sprint to make those conditions happen, here's a doctor proposing what those conditions might be: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/johns-h…

What he says:
“When we see a state or region have numbers that go down over time, and when we have diagnostics in place, and when we have masks available for all of our doctors and nurses who are putting their lives at risk to take care of sick patients, and hospitals are well-prepared, and when we can get our public health systems in place to start tracing or identifying individuals and start tracing their contacts, again like they do in Asia --- I think those five major conditions --- then I think it’s a time to begin to think about how we might experiment with lightening social distancing, perhaps one step at a time.”

He thinks the US might be there in 2 weeks.

U.S. cases continue to increase mostly in NY - looks more & more they should take more stringent measures in the tri-state area:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

There’s a 2-3 week period from time of infection until death, for the unfortunate 1%. Since we’ll never truly be able to test the entire population, a reduction the number of deaths will be the signal that we’ve turned the corner but it will be a lagging indicator.

The number infected in NY continues to climb, but the rate of growth ( the second derivative for you calculus fans ) has been dropping for at least a week.

Farmers and other Americans that normally live in somewhat isolation should have the least to fear right now.

@Nina wow that's a lot of incidents in your extended family. I'm sorry it has to be you but I do appreciate that you are sharing your experience. And your return to posting is a bittersweet joy to me because of it.

Out here in Oregon we have one of the worst hospital capacities per capita in the nation. I'm personally glad that our governor and Washington's put us on shelter in place while we still had a (relatively) low number of cases last week.

@Subra great posts recently. 👏👏👏

"The number infected in NY continues to climb, but the rate of growth ( the second derivative for you calculus fans ) has been dropping for at least a week."

@mark that's good news regarding the rate drop in NY. Imagine where they would be without social distancing. And in hindsight they would have been even better off had they started social distancing earlier.

Yes -- if there's been any mistakes made on social distancing and shelter-in-place, it's that it started too late, not too early. These are proven methods, not the result of panic or irrationality. Data, and not the vague possibility of relief in the future, is what should drive changes; in the meantime, we use the one proven method we have, shelter-in-place. The 5 conditions the doctor I quoted outlined seem like a fantastic checklist to guide when that policy should change on a locality-by-locality basis; although as always, I would yield to the experts on whether that's the right checklist

@Subra call me a conservative SOB engineer but in my mind and based on the way this thing has played out due to NOT social distancing, as soon as there are less than a few (even one) cases in an area, you must start social distancing. This thing spreads as per a standard exponential growing curve. Until you can stop it altogether, you must social distance in order to flatten the curve.

And since detection of the virus still lags the infection rate, you must assume you are further along in the exponential growth curve than where the data says you are.

Trump just announced that the FDA has approved a device that sterilizes 120,000 N95 masks per day. It is already shipping. This will go a long way to eliminating the shortage of masks.

A week+ ago I was having pain in the area of the right-ear - eventually my throat started to hurt - I was concerned I may have an ear-infection (I had been to the ENT a couple of weeks prior to have my ears cleaned since I get wax build-up all the time and thought maybe I was having some issues w/ my ear due to the cleaning) - anyway ended up making an appt w/ the ENT last week, he said my ear was fine but he looked deep into my sinuses and said I had a sinus-infection - he put me on antibiotics for 5 days and told me to see him again in 2-weeks.

Today I get a call from the ENT office that they are gonna be closed for the month of April - luckily I'm about 90% better although I still have a bit of throat soreness every now and then - now I'm concerned docs will not wanna see patients and will want people to go to the emergency room or UrgentCare - I don't necessarily trust telamedicine although it's better than nothing; e.g. my ENT-doc confirmed my sinus infection by looking deep down my nostrils w/ a stethoscope.

by looking deep down my nostrils w/ a stethoscope.

You definitely need to get a new ear nose throat guy. 🩺 😀

LOL - meant he used an endoscope

Papi - I regularly have trouble with sinusitis that sometimes becomes bronchitis in bad years. In those years I've been put on antibiotics. Most of the time one course of antibiotics does it; twice, though it required a second 10-day dose of an antibiotic. A friend also has this and calls it her 'annual bronchitis'. In both our cases we've suffered a persistent, mostly non-productive hacking cough for weeks after intervention. Both of us are older than U.

Sounds like you're recovering but if you get sinus or lung congestion then follow up is probably warranted. Just my personal experience; once I waited too long to see the doc again after initial treatment didn't fully cure it. Second tx provided 80% relief in 10 - 14 days but it took *five months* to be completely free of occasional sore throat and coughing spells.

Before your ENT's office closes maybe call them to see if they've made any provision for f/u when office is closed. Just saw my doc for semiannual visit. Told me their practice has set up telephone screening; if caller might have rona they're directed to a separate office in the same building for further triage and tx.
Just my 2 cents

One of my two local PBS stations is showing a documentary of the 1918 Influenza outbreak - it's airing at 8pm in the American Experience PBS program (I'm pretty sure it's a repeat of something that aired previously on PBS).

I had followup medical appointments for tests, etc on April 1, 6 & 13 related to my lung conditions. They have all been rescheduled for June. My daughter works in a cancer treatment center. They are rescheduling as many patients as they can.

Same in Phoenix, at least for my doctor. They won’t schedule any appointments.

I've had a couple of doctors appointments this month, one by phone call (it was just to give me the results of tests I'd taken in Feb) and one by video.

Best not to go to any medical office, if you are in a weakened state, most medical offices that are open will have Covid-19 patients in theirs waiting rooms, minimize your exposure and reschedule if possible till later on hopefully this passes by June or July.

Yes I received a letter from my doctor's office yesterday saying he wouldn't be available for my bi-yearly check up appointment in early May.
It said to call and reschedule for another date. He's one of the lead docs at the Cleveland Clinic which is world famous for their health care and it always has been hard to get appointments with him. So I called and was told that he didn't have any openings for the rest of this year which is absolutely crazy.
I spoke with his nurse today and she clarified that my only options were a video or phone appointment so we set something up for the end of April. I wonder how they'll check my blood pressure. 🤪

Dr Fauci is receiving death threats from right-wing groups:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/…

...for having the courage to stand up to pseudo-science and bullshitting.

Yes the Washington Post and their "accroding to people familiar with the matter" bullshit lies continue their campiagn against America. The story is not news. Yasmeen wrote it lol. She must have fucked Ilhan Omar's brother too; maybe at the same time his sister fucked him. Pathetic. Simply pathetic. At least Joe Biden now has it; according to people familiar with the matter ......

Just heard on the news that in NY the hospitals are telling paramedics to not bring patients to the hospital if the patient doesn't have a pulse in order to be revived - looks like they are starting to make decisions on who lives and who dies

How is Sweden reacting to CoVid ?
-no gatherings of more than 50 people (revised down from 500 last Friday),
-avoid social contact if over 70 or ill,
-try to work from home,
-table service only in bars and restaurants

If you read the first post in this thread, that should sound familiar

Will this work ? We’ll know in a few weeks. But, a lot of Swedes are getting nervous.

"... California has secured 7,000 rooms and hopes to reserve as many as 15,000 to house homeless people as the state fights the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak.

A total of 869 people have moved in so far, Gov. Gavin Newsom said. “Homelessness is a crisis that predates the current crisis. We’re doing everything we can to meet it head-on,” he said. The project, called “Room Key,” will be partially funded by FEMA, which will reimburse cities and counties for 75% of the costs, according to Newsom.

Newsom’s announcement comes a day after San Francisco reported its first COVID-19 case in a homeless shelter ..."

"... Mexico’s Grupo Modelo said on Thursday it will temporarily stop brewing Corona beer and other brands exported to 180 countries after its business activities were declared non-essential under a government order aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus.

The Mexican government this week declared a health emergency and ordered the suspension of non-essential activities after the number of coronavirus cases in the country surpassed 1,000. On Thursday, it reported 1,510 cases and 50 deaths ..."

"... With the coronavirus contagion spreading, the White House said anyone expected to be near President Donald Trump or Vice President Mike Pence will be given a rapid COVID-19 test.

“As the physician to the president and White House Operations continue to protect the health and safety of the president and vice president, starting today anyone who is expected to be in close proximity to either of them will be administered a COVID-19 test to evaluate for pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers status to limit inadvertent transmission,” said White House spokesman Judd Deere ..."

"... The Department of Transportation said that airlines must give customers refunds when flights are canceled or significantly delayed amid coronavirus.

The agency said it has received an increasing number of complaints from airline customers who said they were denied refunds for canceled or significantly delayed flights and instead given vouchers to use for travel at a later date.

“In recognition of the fact that the COVID-19 public health emergency has had major impacts on the airline industry, the Aviation Enforcement Office will exercise its prosecutorial discretion and provide carriers an opportunity to become compliant before taking further action,” the agency said ..."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavi…

Just heard UK PM Boris Johnson has been placed in intensive care

Best analogy I’ve heard in favor of shelter in place I’d think of the United States as a big swimming pool and those few states without shelter at home orders think of as the ok to piss in the pool section.

Tiger at the Bronx Zoo tests positive for the coronavirus

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York has tested positive for the coronavirus.

The 4-year-old female Malaysian tiger, Nadia, had developed a dry cough and was tested “out of an abundance of caution,” the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Bronx Zoo said in a statement.

The diagnosis was confirmed by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories. It is the first confirmed COVID-19 case in a tiger, according to the USDA.

Several tigers and lions at the zoo showed symptoms of a respiratory illness, the USDA said.

The tiger who tested positive is believed to have become infected by a zoo employee. The tiger first began to show symptoms on March 27, the USDA said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavi…

Well that settles it, I am definitely staying 6 feet from tigers from now on

:) Cats have been testing positive for coronavirus in China for a while. There's mixed reports on whether felines just get the virus or actually get covid19, but it sounds like this cat had a dry cough and so actually had covid19

Zoo animals can get tests but there still aren’t enough tests for humans? Am I missing something here in terms of priorities?

It’s always a good idea to stay at least 6 feet from a tiger
One thing to remember if your with a group that gets chased by a tiger you don’t need to be the fastest member of that group just be sure to outrun the slowest.

"... but it sounds like this cat had a dry cough and so actually had covid19 ..."

I think they may be jumping the gun w/ that diagnosis - maybe the tiger was a smoker and the cough was from that

If cats can indeed carry the virus and let it evolve and mutate into something even more deadly and/or infectious and then pass it on to humans somehow, that would be devastating considering how many cat owners are in this country. What will they call it then? American cat CoV-SARS-3?

Additional breaking news: zoo staff became suspicious when the tiger began hoarding toilet paper and rice

Hmm - just heard on the news about a nurse that had tested positive for Corona - she stayed in isolation for the required # of days - but she was still not feeling herself - she was told there should not be issues after the requisite # of days in isolation but she insisted on getting retested and she came up positive after the required # of isolation days - seems there are constant examples that there is still a lot unknown w.r.t. this virus.

"... Additional breaking news: zoo staff became suspicious when the tiger began hoarding toilet paper and rice ...."

Not surprised about the rice-hoarding - it *is* a Malaysian tiger

If Boris Johnson ends up on ventilator, it's pretty much game over. At that point, you have around 10-20% survival if you're suffering from Covid-19 as your immune system is already losing the battle and they're just hoping they can buy enough time, but being on a ventilator itself is damaging to the body as you have to be constantly sedated, drugged and intravaneously lined and catheterized all the while a tube is being forced down your lungs while fluid is also forced out to prevent from drowning. You can't stay on too long or you'll never be able to get off of it. Hopefully, he doesn't have to be treated beyond a CPAP machine.

Nurses often have very high viral loads. Doctors and respiratory therapists and technicians as well. This is why they have such a high death rate despite being younger and relatively healthy. It could take longer than the usual 7-14 days to clear the virus from the body even if you're "recovered"...

In a pinch you can use a strippers thong as a mask

^ you may end-up w/ more than Corona though

Half a bra would probably work better...

Boris Johnson is only 55 ys/o - I thought he was older

If you used half a bra from a Papi mode you’d cover your whole upper body. 😂

Some experimental drugs have been made available to Boris by a couple US pharmaceutical companies. That’s a last ditch move but he may be there.

Incidentally, we are learning that obesity, even at a young age, is a big risk factor for CoVid.

"... In a pinch you can use a strippers thong as a mask ... Half a bra would probably work better ..."

Maybe this can be a new line of revenue for strippers during this health-crisis

I wasn't hungry tonight at dinner-time but decided to head-out to get a bite around 9pm - wasn't really that hungry and for w/e reason the only thing that somewhat appealed to me was a greasy BK burger although I tend to avoid this type of food - drove over to my nearest BK and ordered at the drive-thru where the girl then tells me they are sold out of everything except the fish sandwich - huh? - hope this doesn't start becoming a new-normal at other restaurants (ended up getting a Cuban Sandwich at a Cuban place but was really in the mood for a greasy burger)

"... An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak ..."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

Yes - it has destroyed strip clubbing, seeing girls otc as we know it. Even before there was always danger of std’s, HIV, financial ruin due to sex addiction, getting one PG. I enjoyed strippers otc, married housewife pussy off SA. One was even a cuck wife (he knew but never came around, she was horny and good plus 60 a session). All pay for play of course. Now I don’t know wth how it will all shake out. Inactive at this time. Very depressing situation.

I believe a lot of people got caught off guard by this virus situation and suffering what if only did something in past be better prepared depression. I am too all we can do is take it one day at time find something try distract feeling of loss. We are truly in deep crap.

That 12,000+ death count from Covid-19 could be 3x as high right now, based on all the untested deaths inside residential homes, care homes and even hospitals where people are just being coded as having died from pneumonia, some "flu-like illness", or any of the other numerous comorbidities they might have. They're only confirming covid-19 deaths based on test results before and after deaths and not clinical diagnoses either. When the "final" death count approaches 100k+ in the late summer, the true number could also end up being double that or more...

At least 4 grocery store workers die from coronavirus. One family is suing

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/at-lea…

Florida has nearly caught up to California in terms of covid19 cases, ramping up very very quickly. Projections are obviously tricky things, but given current trajectories, it's being projected that Florida will end up with 4x the number of deaths as CA, or about 8x per capita

Subra, Can't say for every where, but here in Florida, If you GET the chinese virus you have about a 2% chance of dying from it. Check at:
ncov2019.live

LOL at the people still trying to label it "the Chinese virus" as if this isn't a pandemic that affects anyone of any race that doesn't already have a scientific name that is even easier to type out. Same people were calling it a hoax a month ago.

That already* has a scientific name.

Y'all are ridiculous. It is called Coronavirus, or COVID19, not "the Chinese virus." You sound like toothless rubes when you call it that. Then again, maybe you are...?

Except for the fact it is the result of the Chinese who caused it and the fact they spread it. Since no one in China does anything they aren't told to do so, the fact infected people travelled indicates the spred was intentional. Progressives called Trump racist when he banned travel from China, saving Americans. They also called him names when he banned travel from Europe. Of course it comes out today that Europeans caused most virus cases in New York. Yeah it affects everyone, but its worse in some communities right? All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others.

"All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others."

That is ripped right out of Animal Farm and is equivalent to you saying, "I AM A RACIST AND THINK CERTAIN RACES ARE BETTER THAN OTHERS!" you idiot.

Do you call the Spanish flu the Kansas virus? The American virus? The possibly Chinese-Canadian-American virus? I bet you still call HIV "gay virus."

This is called COVID19. Or Coronavirus. You're going out if your way to call it "the Chinese virus." Did you ever take a biology class? Fucking grow up, dude.

Your headspace is dangerous. I don't know what's inside of your skull, but it damn sure ain't a brain.

👍👍👍

UK PM Boris Johnson reportedly out of intensive care

Good for him even though I can't stand him. Plus, he has kids... probably dozens of them that we don't know about. My aunt just got out of ICU yesterday, finally. 🙏

Glad to hear of your family members' progress.

Thank you.

Sorry Nina but your hysterical reaction and name calling is what I expect from progressives. All y'all love to make things that aren't about race, all about race. When someone points ou the bullshit you scream racist. Say what you want and thank you for proving to me you have nothing to say. Your comment about the gay virus was nothing more than opening a window into your very ugly soul. Shoo, but be careful you don't get German measles or the Chinese virus.

NY alone now has more Corona cases than any country in the world

What makes it racist are the attacks against Asian-Americans "in the name of COVID". Most people can't tell the difference between Chinese and other Asian ethnicities, nor can they tell the difference between those who are American and those who are foreign. Continuing to imply or elicit blame on a nationality is dangerous.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04…

"Shoo, but be careful you don't get German measles or the Chinese virus"

It is comments like this that show how much compassion you lack.

Skibum, you are a terrible miserable old fart. And a waste of skin, at that.

41 NY transit workers have died from Corona - sad

Cook County jail in Chicago is the #1 Corona hotspot in the U.S. with ~400 cases - jail is probably the worst place to be right now

LOL - been seeing vids of animals that are now invading neighborhoods due to the lack of people outside - this one is pretty-funny:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/animals/…

More scenes of wildlife taking over the streets due to lack of people:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78EvLw2h…

USA is now #1 in total deaths - who would have thought "American Exceptionalism" would be kicked in the ass in this way

Hmm - in my #s are correct, the death-rate in NY is close to 4.4% - my area, MIami-Dade county, which is one of the hotspots, the death-rate is about 1.1%

"jail is probably the worst place to be right now"

If one person in a jail or prison gets it, it will spread like wildfire. Since they're not allowed visitation right now, for many of them a guard will be the one to bring it in and it will look like a war zone. CO's will be sick too, or quarantined, etc. The med department will fill up so fast, they'll probably devote half the blocks to COVID19 patients. Like, I could see a prison getting split in half separating the non-covid patients from the infected ones and setting up "hospitals" in a substantially sized, quarantined, part of the prison.

My ex is asthmatic, I've seen him get some pretty bad asthma attacks and when he's out in the real world he needs prescribed inhalers to help him breathe and needs them often. He is a criminal and doing his 3rd prison sentence (yes prison, not jail) so although I haven't spoken to him in over a year and don't have romantic feelings, I was genuinely concerned. I was contemplating reaching out to him just to make sure he's OK, but he still calls my mom and chats with her so I got the scoop without having to talk to him.

He told her he had the flu two weeks ago I guess it was spreading around the prison, and it was horrible but he said it wasn't COVID19 although I don't believe he was actually tested for it. So I think he may have possibly had COVID19 as a prison is a breeding ground for contagious diseases to be spread, and he might have just not known he had it. Besides his asthma, he's young (27) and moderately healthy, the same can't be said for all of those inmates...

799 deaths in one day in NY alone.

I also live in a "hotspot," southeast MI. For Christ's sake, people, STAY INSIDE and when you go out for essentials, be cautious and WASH YOUR HANDS. Staying in and social distancing is the key here, no matter how bad the effects of that may seem.

Papi_chulo - I wonder if this has anything to do with the weather. It is warm and humid in FL, whereas it is cold and dry in NY. This disease attacks people's lungs. It's got to be better to be in a warmer climate with more moisture to breathe as well...

Moisture as in, soothing. Not the liquid kind that fills up your lungs when you have pneumonia.

But I think warm and humid climates are better for survival rates with this virus... I hope to see a drop in death rates as things get warmer even in these cooler states.

Perhaps - but IDK much about lung issues to guesstimate how the climate/weather affects it, and affect it in a fairly significant way (in terms of the difference in rates of death)

It *has* mostly been in the high-80s thru March down-here and in the low-90s the last couple of days - but I have not really heard anyone on TV talk about weather/climate being a significant indicator

This website list the #s on a per state basis (one can sort the data by most deaths) - IDK if studying the data one could see a trend of climate vs deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

Weather is an absolute factor imo, especially for a respiratory illness. Why do you think flu season is always in the colder months?

Of course, another factor the NY deaths is population density. I would assume majority of cases and deaths are in NYC and not representative of the entire state. I mean, in the city, people live stacked on top of each other. Social distancing is almost unavoidable. Still, 799 deaths in ONE DAY is alarming and I think weather comes into play.

Yeah I think it’s a lot worse than I personally thought it was gonna be. If I was older or had underlying conditions or had a family member with either or that I lived with I would be the fuck out of here time now. Drop everything and just fuck outta dodge. NYC is not the play for seniors right now.

"... Weather is an absolute factor imo, especially for a respiratory illness. Why do you think flu season is always in the colder months ..."

It just doesn't seem like all cold states are getting hit hard - I think w.r.t. NY is probably the NYC density and the fact many people depend on public-transportation and walking in crowded streets; etc

I wonder if after this many people will reconsider living in NYC.

Why has N.Y. been hit harder than LA ? It’s more about mass transit than the weather. Twice a day, hundreds of thousands of people jammed into tight spaces, breathing on each other in NY. You couldn’t design a better system for spreading the virus. Meanwhile, in LA, most people travel by car.

3 Thoughts

1 My understanding is that those admitted to the hospital because of testing positive for Covid and who unfortunately wind up perishing because of an underlying health problem are categorized as a Covid fatality. Doesn’t seem accurate to me.

2 Regarding the colder months the pathogens live better in these months, but these are the months of gatherings. School season Aug to May. Holidays - mostly in the winter months. Blockbuster movie releases - other than July 4, winter. Sports football, hockey, basketball - played through winter. Etc.

3 I don’t totally trust Fauci or any of the WHO people. Y’all ever been at a company where the secretary gets a promotion to manager or assistant manager and the newfound limelight goes to the person’s head? They went from sitting in the corner, doing legit work that went largely unrecognized to being more prominent? All of a sudden that power and attention goes to their head. Kinda feels like that to me.

News out of France indicates that obesity is a huge factor and 90% of deaths here were for people with pre-existing health conditions. Without testing everybody for anti bodies we have no way of knowing the actual death rate, but at the end its going to be like the flu. What we're doing now is insane.

A testing center in the Chicago area has been checking for anti-body ( showing whether people had the virus in the past ) as well as the virus. While 10% had the virus, 30% had the anti-body. That’s good news. It means a large percent of the population is ( likely ) already immune and can neither be re-infected nor transmit the virus. There has been speculation that is why there are fewer known cases in LA. It may have reached LA much earlier than known and herd immunity has already taken place.

Useful testing news from Germany:

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they’d been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

This thread started by asking whether we should end the lockdown and focus on protecting those most at risk. Well, that’s exactly what Sweden decided. One month later, how are things working out in Sweden ? It appears that things have reached a plateau without shutting down the economy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombe…

Yes / until vaccine - cure.

It is like nuclear fallout which had not dissipated which you could come into contact with.

Funny how the economic losses will be greater in lives than the actual viral pandemic takes.

Or another view is that many lives were saved not participating in the economy, due to accidents being way low on the jobs and highways. You can spin either way, because
Poor people won’t go to the doctor if they w lost their job.

There are a lot of situations where an economic decision is made by assigning a dollar value to a human life. Highway construction and automobile design, for example. But, that’s an approach that can’t be put in public view where the only acceptable viewpoint is that no amount is too much to spare one life.

I think the virus has already gone viral, and it's not as deadly as people feared

Stanford study

https://www.mercurynews.com/coronavirus-…

And this from Massachusetts

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/b…

If the virus is already widespread, meaning the mortality is extremely low, then we should do what I suggested in the original post. Lock up everyone over 60, or with health issues, and immediately allow everyone else to go back to normal.

It would take a few days to do the kind of testing needed to find out. Why haven’t we done that already ?

^^^The Stanford study states that the infection rate is in the range of 2.5% to 4.2%. Herd immunity requires 50% to 70% so the Stanford study shows we are very far from herd immunity and not ready to open the economy. I consider that *bad* news. The "deadliness" , or case-fatality rate, was already adjusted down to about 0.1% -- about the same as the flu. But if the rest of the country has an infection rate of 5% that's bad news.

The report from Boston (30% infection rate) is the highest I've seen.

My reply was to @Founder

In any case, this shows the vital need for randomized antibody testing.

From 4/11/20 WHO investigates reports of recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-inve…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04…

On Friday [4/10], South Korea reported that 91 coronavirus patients being considered for discharge tested positive for the virus again.

The director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus may have been "reactivated" rather than the patients being re-infected.

It remains unclear why the patients tested positive after initially testing negative for COVID-19 — WHO announced Saturday that it would be investigating the reports.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others.

"As COVID-19 is a new disease, we need more epidemiological data to draw any conclusions," WHO told Reuters.

**Have not seen any follow-up on these reports including reports from other countries experiencing recurrence of positive test results after negative test results

i fear it...... it is a man made bio weapon leaked out of the chinese level 4 lab... and New Study Shows SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Targets And Destroys T Cells, Similarly As What HIV Does

I feel there's still too-much unknown (not enough data) to "go back to business as usual".

Perhaps the data shows/will-show most that perish are older and/or have underlying conditions -but I keep hearing of case after case of young people w/ no underlying conditions dying or being severely affected - being young and healthy is not 100% immunity, not to mention that young healthy people can spread it to others that may not be young and/or as healthy and cause those folks an early-death.

china in focus has video that a 2cd wave of shut-down in china is happening now.....plus there building a new hospital near the russia border..........

It's interesting to go to the earlier comments/predictions from a month or so ago and look at where things are now.

COVID-19 does appear to affect brain function in some people. Specific neurological symptoms seen in people with COVID-19 include loss of smell, inability to taste, muscle weakness, tingling or numbness in the hands and feet, dizziness, confusion, delirium, seizures, and stroke.
One study that looked at 214 people with moderate to severe COVID-19 in Wuhan, China found that about one-third of those patients had one or more neurological symptoms. Neurological symptoms were more common in people with more severe disease.

Officials in Sweden say there are signs that CoVid infections have reached a plateau. If so, locking down our economy may have been a huge and costly mistake.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombe…

I cannot help but wonder if the government (and I mean fed and state levels) would be different if this was not election year

Here's the difference I think. I worked alongside Swedes for several years. They are a highly disciplined, intelligent group that are very structured in their approach to just about anything. Point being if the government said we are going to keep things open but you need to follow these rules they would actually do it and not ignore the guidelines while beating their personal freedom drum.

All government is doing is using the weak and useless among us to take away freedom and liberty. Don't save the world from Nazi Germnay said the progressives; people might die. Don't end slavery said the progressives; people might die. Don't build anything said the progressives; people might die. Don't fly said the progressives you might die. Get as fat as possible said the progressives and make sure you take every step to be in ill health: We will save you by killing the economy, said the progressives.

The total number of cases makes for good headlines but is almost useless for comparison with other countries. The U.S. has a large population! Of course the number of cases will be large. The cases PER CAPITA should be used for comparison. For example: Spain - 4282 cases per 1 million people / U.S. - 2330. ABOUT HALF as bad as Spain.

Sweden has half the population of Florida but has 2x the deaths

Some other things that have been mentioned w.r.t. Sweden - I heard:

+ a bit over half the population lives alone

+ Sweden has a very advanced telecom infrastructure and for years many of its citizens have worked from home at least part of the time

I think Sweden went into this assuming they would take a hit at the front end but avoid economic harm and any future waves of infection. Until we get a vaccine, our deaths will continue. Sweden’s might not, though I wonder about all the Swedish seniors who have been sheltering.

I’ve seen comparisons of the US statistics with, and without, NYC figures. It’s night and day. There’s probably a lesson there, but I don’t know what.

NYC is def a unique case - but makes me wonder if there's more to how hard they've been hit it's uniqueness notwithstanding - it's the unique NYC way of life a reason for the huge disparity compared to the rest of the world, maybe it's something specific about NYC like its heavy reliance on public/pedestrian transportation as has been mentioned, not to mention a lot of things in NYC being high-density such as grocery stores, elevators in all the high-rises, etc.

If NY & NJ were inline w/ most other states it'd be a significantly different picture.

A 5 y/o little-girl in Detroit died from Corona - so sad

3 men found dead at NYC hotel used to house COVID-19 patients

Authorities said three men were found dead over the weekend at a New York City hotel used to house people who had recently been released from hospitals after testing positive for the coronavirus ...

https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/coro…

CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20…

Ohio man dies from COVID-19 after criticizing governor’s coronavirus lockdown as ‘madness’

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa…

In NYC overall crime is down 35% - but commercial break-ins are up 120% (probably b/c the businesses are closed and an easier target).

Also -across the country porch-pirates are on the increase b/c of so many people ordering online to avoid going to the store.

To stereotype swedes (who are my people on one side of my family tree) tend to be very controlled, logical, cold. Even the Finn's and Norwegians stereotype them as a little uptight. So Swedes are likely to listen to recommendations from experts without hardcore rules in place. Americans are much more "y'all can't tell me what to do. This is America! Freedom! Fuck yeah!!!"

“CDC director warns second wave.........”

The CDC is dysfunctional beyond belief. They screwed up testing early on. Redfield appeared at some of the early task force presentations and came across as a minor bureaucrat.

New Covid-19 test allows patients to collect samples at home, send to lab for results
[from what I heard on the news, it's originally targeted for frontline workers]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/ho…