People are going broke over this

Sure it's a problem, but fat scared seniors aren't the cause, but good try at trolling RickiBoi, we've been through disasters in the past and the human race finds a way to not just cope, but persevere and go on to even better times, sorry that you are so frightened you seem hysterical like a little girl,
Pick yourself up and act like a man stop being such a wussy little wimpette.

Just on a totally unrelated subject, Rick, when is your avatar going to show Brady in his new Tampa Bay finery?😜😆

If youre old enough to remeber 9/11, the 2008 housing crash, youre probably between 30 to 50 years old. You have little trust in the government and know that the FEDs dont have your best interest. If youre between 30 and 50 you probably are single with no kids so you pretty much have nothing to lose. So if the FEDs doesnt put cash in thier pockets when the bills are due i suspect this age group to go against government recommendations, which will lead to civil unvest. I dont THINK this age group cares if it kills a bunch of boomers. in reality boomers have the highest mortality rate. Look at the bills both sides are trying to pass, they are adding pork to the bills SM

Levels of stress like this tend to expose poor coping skills and other deficits in personality organization.

@25: Only the opening line was trolling. Sadly the rest was 100% true. Heck there are even other commercial office tenants in my building who don't know how they are going to make their rent bill payments. Not me btw, I'm riding it out reasonably well, but my business does not rely upon retail sales (thank goodness).

Unlike you 25, I'm a man of the people, so I'm seeing it all firsthand. I'm not hiding away during the day far away from the working man. Oh, and nice platitudes, but they don't apply here, not when the issue is not the natural disaster itself, but the government shutting down the economy wholesale. We need a different approach now. We need the government to stop preventing these adults from helping themselves.

@ATAC: I'm still in denial. ;)

We have to stay the course to see if we can get get rid of this - if social-distancing proves futile, then no choice but to get things back running. but I think we need to give it time and see if it starts to make a difference and starts to make progress - it' starting to feel that no-matter what you do, infections keep rising, or could just be testing is starting to catch up in identifying those that had been infected prior to the lockdown - we have to try and get a handle on this or at least mitigate the infections until hopefully a vaccine or cure is found; but for now seems we don't have any good alternatives but to socially-distance else the #s may skyrocket and collapse the healthcare system.

This is something that is affecting everyone - I don't forsee massive #s of people getting evicted or their houses foreclosed, but who knows - everyone is gonna have to share in the pain including landlords, etc.

@Papi, sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. I'm starting to believe that here. When mothers don't know if they'll have a roof over the heads of their kids two weeks from now, it's time to start thinking in terms of socially acceptable trade-offs. We don't do this for the flu either and it killed 20,000 Americans last year.

===> "I don't forsee massive #s of people getting evicted or their houses foreclosed..."

I guess you forgot the 2008-2009 crisis and that was a drop in the bucket compared to the havoc this is wreaking. How long do you think landlords can afford not to get paid? They have expenses too, including mortgages, property taxes, repairs, maintenance staff, etc., etc.

>Unlike you 25, I'm a man of the people, so I'm seeing it all firsthand. I'm not hiding away during the day far away from the working man. <

Yeah you're a regular everyman, you have no idea about anything at all, you are a first class idiot.

I guarantee I'm not hiding any place I'm actually working hard keeping my business running so the the people that work for my company can continue to get paid and make their obligations, it's very difficult under these conditions, but that;s neither here nor there, I actually tend to my obligations without complaining about who's not helping me. This is having an effect on everyone, not just you, so pick your sad sack self off the floor and do what you need to do you simpering coward.

This is different than 08/09; it's a different animal - everyone is being affected this time around vs a subset of the economy - e.g. if someone gets evicted from their apartment I don't think there will be a line of people waiting to rent it

Stay the course...look at the mistake after 9/11 going to Iraq. Look at the corporations that are hiring now Amazon...they want us to be corprate slaves. the lock down is affecting small business the most. They need to put money on your pockets

@Papi nuance is wasted on the clueless LOL

In Michigan governor has ordered that no one can be removed from home due to an eviction order. She can't stop the eviction orders because that is a judicial branch function and she only heads the executive branch, but she can control what people do as a result of an eviction order.

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9309,…

Honestly 25 this is not hurting my business very much. But I AM complaining for the people who seem to have nobody to complain for them except a few of our braver politicians. Some of you are quite obviously out of touch.

Oh btw, the angry name calling is generally a sign that one is just too stupid to argue on the merits. Given your obvious ignorance on the toll this is taking on ordinary people, i'm inclined to think that this applies to you.

Kudos to you for helping your people, but there is no help forthcoming for all those people who are already running out of money, at least not soon enough to help them. These people are already falling behind on their bills. A couple thousand from the Feds a few weeks or longer from now isn't going to make much of a difference.

===> "e.g. if someone gets evicted from their apartment I don't think there will be a line of people waiting to rent it"

First, these landlords will still have to try, even if they have to lower rent. See above re: bills to pay. Second, an empty apartment still costs less to support than one that is occupied by non-paying tenants because at least it isn't incurring more wear and tear, utility bills for those with all inclusive rent payments (which is common in lower income housing), sudden emergency repair needs (which must be tended to by law), etc.

Man the level of "out-of-touch" on this board is truly stunning.

If you think its bad now wait another week when NY gets saturated with cases

>Oh btw, the angry name calling is generally a sign that one is just too stupid to argue on the merits. Given your obvious ignorance on the toll this is taking on ordinary people, i'm inclined to think that this applies to you.<
As per your usual thinking, the dumbest fool always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room
As for the toll this is taking on ordinary people, I wouldn't even waste time debating you you haven't any empathy this is just par for the course, just keep on trolling , not my fault you're stuck in the house with the wife and the brats, we know you'd much rather be out fucking whore's and giving them money for their brats, than taking care of your own.

^ I'm seeing all of this precisely because I am NOT stuck in the house. i continue to open my office each day, as do many of the other business that work in this building. Indeed issues around this virus have made me busier than ever.

But we get it 25. You don't want to argue this because you don't give a shit. So long as you feel just a little bit safer you don't care how many lives are ruined.

Oh btw, the angry name calling is generally a sign that one is just too stupid to argue on the merits........................we know you'd much rather be out fucking whore's and giving them money for their brats, than taking care of your own

Well, 25, at least you’re not one of those stupid people who resort to name calling.

Oh and I am writing this because I am legitimately angry. I am angry at watching good people suffer through no fault of their own, without even being given a choice. I've seen some of these people every weekday for years, including some of the nearby tenants of one of the residential properties managed by the office across the way.

@Mark as RickiBoi so often tells everyone I just call it like I see it, but hey, if it can get thrown around by the troll it can get tossed back by the person being trolled.

IMO the bottom rung has more “elasticity” than you would think. It’s easier for them to switch over to the temp work that’s available in all sorts of industries. A lot of the “essential employment” that is out there (aside from doctor, pharmacists, etc) is for the lower tier anyways. The displaced bar and restaurant employees can find a spot to hurriedly scramble in. If nothing else, delivery type of gigs. Even if it’s not as desirable, it’s there.

Another thing about the lower tier, assuming this was all unchecked and nothing had closed down, many people would have gotten sick and not have shown up to work and caused a lot of disruption anyways. Yes many are asymptomatic and out and about. But many would have come down with something and been unwell. And while survivable and no need for hospitalization, believe me it def feels worse than a regular flu.

I personally suspect I got the coronavirus recently and I was sick for 2.5 weeks. But alas, without proper testing there’s no way to know for sure. (If I did have it, I probably picked it up in Florida btw) But I stayed in bed because I had the luxury of not worried about being terminated anywhere.

It would have been pretty common for the bartender/server to come back after a week I fear of aforementioned consequences, when they should definitely should be home. And bringing down employee morale with their misery plus making everyone else sick and lowering business and putting that industry with being square ones and probably just as bad off.

So there’s disruption for the bottom tier, but most likely it would have happened either way and it’s a moot point. And I think it’s not as bad off as you think.
——-
Now as for those higher in the chain, who faced 401k drops and are wondering if layoffs will start happening, it’s probably more worrisome for that group. It’s going to be way harder for somebody accustomed to a 50k+ salary to apply to that grocery store that’s advertising its hiring. Or amazon is apparently not even requiring resumes?
——
From a personal selfish viewpoint, I don’t like these measures either and figure it wouldn’t have been sunshine and rainbows regardless. But all I can do is adapt and figure out a way to make things even better for myself than before.

From the sounds of how you’re talking about yourself(particularly financially), you don’t have much to adapt to, to even have to do that. 🤷🏻‍♀️ Aside from perhaps the tedium of dealing with your wife and children?

I call it the coronavirus hoax.

===> "IMO the bottom rung has more “elasticity” than you would think. It’s easier for them to switch over to the temp work that’s available in all sorts of industries."

Normally I would agree with this academic treatise, but right now it is about the stupidest thing I've ever read on here and that's saying something given many of 25's posts.

There aren't remotely close to enough open jobs at Walmart and all the other food companies to absorb the glut of restaurant workers, retail store employees, entertainment venue employees, livery drivers, hotel employees, contractors, etc., etc. who are out of work right now. If there were there would be no need for relief. Just ask your Meals on Wheels driver the next time he stops by your place, who might actually have a clue since you obviously haven't left the house in maybe years. Good Lord.

This just can't go on. Even if the government finally manages to pass the relief package, it is going to be too little too late.

@Rick: I get that shutting down is causing an enormous amount of hardship, economic and otherwise. But you you say “We need a different approach now”, what other viable approach would you recommend?

People with much greater expertise than you or I don’t have a better answer.

@Rick: I get that shutting down is causing an enormous amount of hardship, economic and otherwise. But you you say “We need a different approach now”, what other viable approach would you recommend?

People with much greater medical expertise than you or I don’t have a better answer.

If we don’t shut everything down to slow the infection rate, most people will become almost simultaneously infected and we won’t have a functional health care system.

Shutting down buys us time to keep the health care system as functional as possible.

With 330 million people in the USA and assuming a 70% infection rate and a mortality rate between 1% (with a functional health care system) and 3.4% (without a functional health care system) that’s between 2.3 million and 7.8 million deaths in the next few months.

Is shutting down the economy for a few months worth saving 5.5 million lives?

I will grant that my numbers are only guesses at this point, but any reasonable set of numbers will show that millions of live can be saved with a shutdown.

If we don’t shut everything down to slow the infection rate, most people will become almost simultaneously infected and we won’t have a functional health care system.

Shutting down buys us time to keep the health care system as functional as possible.

With 330 million people in the USA and assuming a 70% infection rate and a mortality rate between 1% (with a functional health care system) and 3.4% (without a functional health care system) that’s between 2.3 million and 7.8 million deaths in the next few months.

Is shutting down the economy for a few months worth saving 5.5 million lives?

I will grant that my numbers are only guesses at this point, but any reasonable set of numbers will show that millions of live can be saved with a shutdown.

Rick, as far as evictions and foreclosure on homes go, HUD has already put policies in place to prevent the widespread home loss you are concerned about.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fan…

While this won't ensure that nobody loses their home over this, it will drastically limit the number and at least delay anyone getting evicted in the next couple of months.

While HUDs policies only apply to federally backed mortgages and renters other mortgage lenders are following suit. Also in many states the courts have suspended all but the most urgent cases thereby preventing an eviction hearing in the first place.

As for the small businesses that are being shuttered by this, the SBA has already made several programs available and more are being negotiated as part of the stimulus package currently in Congress.

https://www.sba.gov/disaster-assistance/…

While I hate the government telling us what business can and can't stay open there really isn't much choice right now. Social Distancing is the only weapon we have to fight the problem right now. Hopefully we come back with a stronger economy after this is over, but a lot of weaker companies (and some previously strong ones) aren't going to survive to see it. Ultimately it is better for a percentage of companies to die from Coronavirus to protect people than to let that same percentage of people die to protect the businesses.

I wish there were better options but I haven't seen any.

Oops, sorry for the double paste. Where’s that edit button Founder has been promising us?

Repost, one paste only:

@Rick: I get that shutting down is causing an enormous amount of hardship, economic and otherwise. But you you say “We need a different approach now”, what other viable approach would you recommend?

People with much greater expertise than you or I don’t have a better answer.

If we don’t shut everything down to slow the infection rate, most people will become almost simultaneously infected and we won’t have a functional health care system.

Shutting down buys us time to keep the health care system as functional as possible.

With 330 million people in the USA and assuming a 70% infection rate and a mortality rate between 1% (with a functional health care system) and 3.4% (without a functional health care system) that’s between 2.3 million and 7.8 million deaths in the next few months.

Is shutting down the economy for a few months worth saving 5.5 million lives?

I will grant that my numbers are only guesses at this point, but any reasonable set of numbers will show that millions of live can be saved with a shutdown.

This is what happens when you have over 50% of the population living paycheck to paycheck, who can't afford an emergency $400 expense. Keynesian economics doesn't work--this should be obvious by now. First it was a few rounds of $500 billion or so in QE1 2 and 3.... now we have a whopping $6 trillion (or more) coming.

Anybody wanna guess what will be needed in the NEXT crisis? $20 trillion?

Anybody wanna guess how many years it will take people to WAKE THE FUCK UP and realize that massive money printing has an ultimate destination, and Zimbabwe already had it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinfla…

IGott, new mortality calculations are putting it at closer to .1%, basically that of the flu. The reporting of the denominator of infected people has been woefully inadequate due to a lack of testing in most places and the fact that most people who caught it never sought medical care.

For anyone who has access to the Wall Street Journal, this is a great article on the topic:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coro…

Also Igott, that HUD relief only covers single family homeowners and is only a stay of execution. Renters and their landlords won't see any relief and they are the ones at the most risk.

Also, do you know how few businesses are actually able to secure an SBA loan? You have to be able to show capacity to repay and, in some instances, provide collateral. How many restaurants, small retailers, bars, livery drivers, etc., etc., do you think can actually qualify for something like that when they may be staring down the barrel of an extended shut-down and have few hard assets besides inventory?

No offense to you folks posting this stuff, but I'm amazed that some of you can fry an egg without getting caught up in some academic treatise on optimal heating temps, egg texture and surface cooking areas.

Is shutting down the economy for a few months worth saving 5.5 million lives?

Maybe. After a few months, the economy would be wiped out. Most companies, even the big ones, would not re-open. The federal government wouldn’t be able to pay its debts. No Medicare. No Social Security. We would be a third world country. All of Europe would be too. Think Mad Max.

How many people would die from that ?

—>”Normally I would agree with this academic treatise, but right now it is about the stupidest thing I've ever read on here”

If it’s that stupid, why would you normally agree with it? Are you saying that you normally agree with stupid ideas during non-pandemic times? 😉😉😉😉😉

Delivery driver positions are not declining. Perhaps shifting over on what is delivered, but there’s still a demand.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/16/grocer…

But in general, signs are all over the place advertising hiring.. A convenience store I was at, had a sign up advertising for truck drivers even. (In a butt fuck nowhere small town)

Speaking of having a clue, I’m currently crashing with people I know personally. In a rent-controlled apartment complex. Catching up and hearing all the gossip about quite a few other individuals in a similar socioeconomic tier. *You* may need to leave the house and your leafy neighborhood to find entry level employees to speak with, but no I am content to passively hear my information from the couch.

The lower classes are okay, at least in Austin. As by “okay” I mean the status quo. But it can’t be the only city like that.

If I’m a landlord, I would be taking the long-term view of things. While I wouldn’t want my tenants to miss a payment or two, I would let them skip a couple of payment and tack it onto the end of the lease. Why evict someone — or a business — when there are tons of people and businesses in the same situation? They’re not going to immediately re-lease the space. Hopefully this blows over in 2-3 months.

Btw I’m not unsympathetic to the economic impact/lives to be saved trade off. Furthermore, from a personal opinion standpoint (whether that’s worth anything or not), reading about the actions from WHO, CDC, and the FDA, and other rando government officials—not just in the past couple months but even now currently— it can get difficult to avoid the thought that “well fuck it, if they don’t care about making necessary changes to help do their part to save lives, then why should I?” And perhaps advocate social Darwinism to take its course because then at least it may be like ripping off a band aid.

Not that I really have that opinion either, but it gives me more sympathy to the mentality.

No, I am just getting a kick out of Rick disguising his personal problems as concern for poor people.

C’mon man, with the posturing earlier in this thread that you’re not feeling strain either currently or risking it in the future...You do way too much business travel normally, for there not to be something that’s causing a problem. I assume that when you travel there is some sort of business being conducted, and not just simply going to clubs and writing reviews as long as the rating system is to your personal liking 😉😉😉😉😉

The jobs that nicespice is talking out were already there before corona, but now amazon, corporate is scaling. Nicespice could have worked at McDonalds or Wal Mart before corona but was stripping instead, ask yourself why..

@nicespice to your very point, most businesses in my industry are hiring, I right now with this pandemic going on have openings for at least 4 positions all paying well over $15.00 per hour, but I'm still not getting candidates to fill those positions.
Don't worry about what RickiBoi thinks is the stupidest thing he's read on here, remember the biggest fool allways thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.

Mark, as I posted above, more and more experts doubt that it would be anywhere remotely close to that number even in a worst case transmission scenario.

But let me lay out some real world examples for our resident academics on how it all works on a micro scale...

Right now in my office building there are 3 businesses that will likely go under very soon (and probably more, but I don't chat with those owners). One sells expensive solar panel installations, another sells garage doors and windows (also expensive) and the third is a tutoring center.

Sales seized up for the first two when the panic started a couple of weeks ago. Homeowners are backing out of, or postponing, existing sales agreements using COVID-19 as the excuse. Of course nothing new is being sold, so in a nutshell nobody is paying them. They have had to lay off their employees and, unless something changes soon, they will be out of business.

The tutoring center dried up as soon as the schools were closed. None of the tutors are getting paid since they work on an hourly basis. All tests and assessments have already been cancelled for the rest of the year and the kids are doing distance learning until April 15th, though that will likely extend.

None of these businesses could conceivably qualify for a loan from anyone, including the SBA. Shit they probably won't even cover their April office rent payments.

When you shut down the economy, even for a short time, the effects are massive and deep and ripple in a myriad of ways. We all think of restaurants and bars because they are the most visible to us, but it is made up of countless small businesses operating behind the scenes, like these, many of which are about to go under.

We cannot sustain this for much longer without multi-year economic consequences.

This emo train is already 40+ posts deep, but maybe next time the mood for reflection hits it can go in the political forum?

And I'm not calling out anyone in particular, or anyone at all. It's on everyone's minds. This thread's getting a little personal is all and it is political, so just putting that out there.

^ Those businesses you are describing are the ones that would have been gone after a normal event like a hurricane, or some other mundane slowdown of some sort, piss poor examples RickiBoi. It will take more than a temporary shutdown to close most strong businesses, don't forget it's not like a competitor is able to steal the customers, when things get a bit better they will still have work unless they have not been building cash reserves for the last several years.
I count on these events every few cycles it makes the strong businesses better, and get's rid of the trash.

I actually agree with Dugan. I posted a week ago on another non-monger forum about the negative 2nd and 3rd order effects that an economic shutdown could have. Someone is going to lose their business, which will destroy their marriage, which will drive them to suicide. Someone else is going to lose their health insurance and die from inability to afford care. And there will be people who end up homeless and die from something related to that.

So while I do agree that some shutdown is warranted going to the lengths some people want are too far. In my area before the full shutdown they limited business to 50% of their normal capacity which I thought was a smart compromise. And even then most businesses were pretty empty as a large percentage of people are not going out from fear rather than government mandate.

Everyone is going to die, it's only a matter of how soon. If covid was taking out everyone under 20 then I would feel a lot differently about the situation but instead it's the opposite. Most of those who are going to die have lived a long and full live already.

All of that said when I made these points before (on the other forum) there was a TON of outrage so I've pretty much kept my mouth shut since then.

One other point I would bring up is that all of the talk about lack of ventilators is nonsense. There have been numerous open source ventilator projects that have sprung up over the past few weeks. There is a really cool design that uses 3d printer parts I may try to replicate this week. There is another design someone made that uses industrial supplies to make a single ventilator that can handle 100 people at a time. And then there is a group I have been working with where we found a way to make a ventilator with REALLY basic parts from autozone.

I do understand that there are probably other bottlenecks that would come up if the ventilator problem was solved. I pitched the idea a week ago of the goverment taking over a hotel chain and it was badass to see the US Army Core of Engineers came up with the same idea and is going forward with it.

My latest idea I have been trying to get some traction on is to quickly retrain veterinarians to treat human covid patients. That would obviously massively increase the number of available doctors.

Final note - If anyone here is elderly and super worried about dying of covid I would recommend going on amazon and buying a manual respirator. Even if we run out of ventilators you can still technically just manually respirate someone and those devices are readily available for purchase. Also a lot of the DIY ventilator projects use those as a base so buying one of them (I think mine was $23) is cheap insurance.

This thread is interesting as, IMO, it exposes a surreal mass denial of the magnitude of the train wreck happening in front us.

If all the restrictions were immediately removed, does anyone think people are just going to start buying houses, cars, traveling, huge weddings....list goes on forever.

Denial for sure.

I am actually somewhat relieved to see private sector companies finally becoming more involved. Private sector success is based on doing it better and faster than the other guy. If we go into wartime-like production of the shortages then along the way we will discover shortcuts to make things more efficiently. I think normal by Easter is a pipe dream but maybe we can at least have these shelter in place orders lifted b then

I actually agree with a lot of what Dugan has to say. This shutdown cannot continue en masse. The world is not set up for this. A slowdown, sure. But a shutdown? Hopefully the warmer weather helps. And things will not be back to normal for a long time, those days are over. That said, use the cruise ships for quarantines and everybody just stop being a dirty fuck and wash your hands. Yeah I’m looking at you people who think you washed your dick that morning and it’s is clean so why wash your hands - it’s the money and the doorknobs, and the cell phone you touch. And time to hold restaurants and business accountable for keeping clean establishments. No more of this Grade C p, but you can stay open a Pandora’s we will reinspect. Anyway, fingers crossed that things get better and stay safe.

*Grade C, but you can stay open and we will...

Rick, do you really think people would be buying "expensive solar panel installations" or "garage doors and windows (also expensive)" right now if it wasn't for the government ordered shut down? When people get worried they put off unnecessary expenses like solar panels and new garage doors. You even said these companies started suffering as soon as the panic started which was weeks before the shutdown. If those companies can't make their April rent payments they weren't in a very good financial situation to begin with and may very well have closed after a couple of months of a 2008 like recession.

As for the tutoring center, yeah they would have been much better off without the schools being closed. They still would have taken a hit, possibly enough to put them out of business, from many parents worrying about their personal finances and pulling the kids due to the high cost. My sister-in-law lost her job at a national "learning center" chain in the 2008 recession because so many parents pulled their students because they couldn't afford the cost.

If you are worried about the solar panel and door and window companies you could always hire them to make some upgrades to what I am sure is a palatial estate you call home. I'm not sure about your state, but here in Ohio those services are still able to be open because they are considered "essential services" because they fall under the "home maintanance" exception. Even if they can't perform the work right now due to restrictions in your area, I'm sure they would accept prepayment now to complete the work after the shutdown.

While I can't afford to lay out massive amounts of money for large scale purchases like that, I have spent more than $600 buying gift certificates to three local restaurants that I frequent to help them stay in business.

After seeing a stripper talk about the blissful existence of her "lower class" friends (who the fuck refers to friends like that?) and the employers and landlords with hearts of gold, I've seen the light. Perhaps someone should call the Feds and let them know that we clearly don't need that $2 trillion relief package making its way through Congress now. 😉

Denial indeed.

But sadly even that relief bill will just be a drop in the bucket. The federal government cannot replace what is being lost now.

We will see what comes out of Washington on Monday, when the 15 day period is over, but it is expected that the Administration will be advocating for a more moderate path forward. Let's hope.

It's a balancing act as to slow the infection rate such that the hospital systems and their workers are not overwhelmed. Yes, we can only stay "shutdown" for so long before the economy is irreparably harmed. That is the fine line the powers in charge are trying to discern. In Ohio, despite "Stay at Home" many businesses are deemed "essential" and humming along including my workplace. Problem is, many are not and even some questionable "essential" businesses like car dealerships have no customers.

You’re just posturing RickiBoi if it were up to you, besides me who’s life are you willing to sacrifice
Most battle plans only last till first contact with the enemy, then everyone is fighting to stay alive.

First Rick wants to pretend to care about the plight of “These people work in the restaurants, bars and stores around here that tourists normally flock to.” The big emphasis that was in the OP.

He can’t continue further on that front because he doesn't actually have real world examples. So he has to “lay out some real world examples for our resident academics on how it all works on a micro scale..” by talking about individuals in his ~office building~ doing something that’s not bar/restaurant related, nor shopkeepers who work in touristy areas.

25 gave a good point that if they are *already* folding, that any normal event would have taken them out anyways. Rick can’t respond to that point.

Now all Rick can do is not address anything anymore—and resort to mockery and insults cause facts won’t save his arguments.

Why will they not save his arguments? Because Rick doesn’t actually notice or care about what he blabbed in the OP about. And doesn’t have any real-world examples to dispute me on how people are suffering.

Rick is the one financially suffering—and makes it a point to keep trying to insist he’s not. And to further his denial, he tried to make it like he’s complaining on the behalf of another group of people, but in reality he’s complaining on behalf of himself.

Damn Nicespice well written, if TUSCL had a like system I'd definitely like your comment.

It is sad to see how many people can only comprehend the suffering of others when they are among them.

Clearly Nice25 falls in this camp.

Well 25 let me turn you "how many lives" question around. How many lives should we lose to despair and suicide just so you can be a little safer? How many children should be forced into abject poverty? Because both of these issues are widespread during any downturn, determine as one as deep as this will be if we do not pull back.

I won't even get into the sheer arrogance about your assumptions about which businesses deserve to live or die, except to say that even many formerly strong businesses are in trouble right now.

Silly assertion RickiBoi I’m not looking for safety, you are. I’m asking you, your opinion of whom should we allow to die, I say no one, if we can help it, we can make the money back, only if we are alive.

Rick, I'm actually out of work during this as well as my tenants so I'm doubly out. I thankfully had the foresight to save an emergency fund and hopefully will be getting some relief from the government but if I dont I can weather this.

Based on some of points other users have pointed out I think you're just broke. Sucks to have to call out another Patriots fan.

"Man the level of "out-of-touch" on this board is truly stunning."

"It is sad to see how many people can only comprehend the suffering of others when they are among them."

The irony in this thread has gotten so thick, Papi tried to take it for a lapdance

^^lol.

I disagree with 25 on the issue of killing off the American economy just to "save" everyone, and believe that the idea we are freaking killingthis country because some people will die of corona and not the flu is amazing. The hysteria promulgated by the news media and incompetent governing at all levels fails to recognize that over 90% of the people showing up at e mergency rooms don't have corona. The people in power now, if they were captains on a ship that was sinking would shove 1,000 people into boats that might hold 500 and let 1,000 people die in the name of equality instead of saving $500 of them.

===> "The irony in this thread has gotten so thick, Papi tried to take it for a lapdance"

Sub, I'm neither out of touch nor among the suffering. Indeed, I'm more the every-man than almost any weird fuck on this board, as few unique users as there actually are. I may not have the full scope on the which 'tards are running which accounts on here, but I don't spend too much time trying to reason that out. I also may allow myself to get baited more than I should, but part of that might be that I find entertainment in the back and forth.

But as far as what's going on out there right now, I'm wading in it. I am dealing with other families and other local businesses. All of which has made the canned plot lines and academic theories i'm seeing around here all the more bizarre.

But hey Sub, there is one silver lining in this for you. Maybe now you'll actually get some of the $250 OTC you've been claiming to find with dayshift hotties. ;)

^ That isn't even close to what my position is, try reading what I've actually posted, and stop trying to characterize what I have said as somehow being pro killing the American economy.
My question to anyone that cares to answer is who gets to decide who lives or dies, if you aren't volunteering to die, shut the fuck up, and try to save as many as possible.

" I'm neither out of touch"

LOLOLOL Don't look now, LDK is headed straight towards this thread

There sure are people going broke over this.
People are dying over it too.
So far in the US, 800 deaths. That's something that started less than a month ago, and is predicted to only get worse, even with lock downs.
And while the 55,000 people confirmed infected is probably under reported, most of the under reported people are doing ok, but can spread the disease.
The bigger problem is that out of 55,000 people, best estimate I can find is about 10% are averaging a week in the ICU hooked to a ventilator!!! With costs of US healthcare, those people are sure as hell going way broke!!! And that number is going to skyrocket to the point we're out of space and they start taking over convention centers to setup makeshift hospitals... It's going to go way higher, and without the shutdown, we'd be there at the end of this week.
Imagine the financials of every hospital bed in New York city occupied with someone in critical care staying there over 5 days? Imagine how many of these people won't have insurance? They will have a lifelong debt they will never end up paying.

I'm not sure what the OP is really saying or thinking. So we should do what Trump is suggesting and "reopen" things? As the national shutdown continues and as the hospitalizations and deaths skyrocket (as was predicted regardless of what happened), people are going to be more scared in general of going out for anything. Let's say that somehow Trump ends the shutdown and "mandates" that everything has to re-open. Forget that he can't really do that. All businesses have to rehire everyone back regardless of how much they're losing. No one gets unemployment benefits if they have the opportunity to work at their restored job but refuse to do so. So with that invisible pitchfork poking the ass of working Americans, the economy is turned on again and if people die, people die. Well, only a small percentage, initially at least.

Do you really think the masses are going to go shopping just like before? Go out to eat? Go to movies? Travel by plane after waiting hours in an airport with people from everywhere around the world? Start booking hotel rooms for whatever? Hell no. Only the people that don't give a shit are going to support the economy. The vast majority will be too chicken shit to risk dying or getting seriously sick. And i bet all those old taking heads talking about sacrificing themselves for the economy won't be in that first group of supporting the economy. It'll only be a matter of days before everyone realizes what's going on and stop supporting the economy completely. Meanwhile, the virus spreads like wild fire but still doesn't reach herd immunity numbers because a lot of people are still voluntary isolating and for good reason. Meanwhile, the severely sick and dying are exponentially increasing, completely overrunning the hospitals because they still don't have enough ventilators and respirators and beds and even the nurses and doctors are also getting sick and don't forget all about all the other sick and critical patients that don't have Covid-19. Millions of hospitalizations that are compromised by the overrun and understaffed and underprepared medical system. Forget about getting anything routine or preventive done and who would risk going to an environment like that anyway, but that will lead to a sicker population. Meanwhile, there are seniors and elderly dying in nursing homes and even residential homes because they couldn't or wouldn't get to a crowded hospital. Not all of these cases are Covid-19, but the many other myriad of comorbidities that the very old often have and will get.

Before you know it you've got rotting corpses across the country and people are just scared to move them and now you have a major health and environmental hazard that was unnecessary. People are still hoarding essential food and supplies and now you have major civil unrest and are on the brink of civil war and a real life virus apocalypse. Armed citizens will just burgle and steal stuff now if they can't buy it. This isn't months from now. This could all start happening in a matter of weeks or even days, well before any actual bankruptcies and home foreclosures or complete stock market crashes.

This is mostly all an exaggeration, and thankfully it's moot anyway, since Trump can't just unilaterally reopen the economy. Since we've already gone in this direction, we might as well go all in. Half measures won't do anything in either direction and full measures are impossible in the other direction (reopening economy). And we've already seen that it can be done and it has worked. It would be best just to do what other countries have already done (China, South Korea) in a couple months and try to do it better. Those countries didn't fall into mass poverty and hardship and suicides. They'll recover. Slowly, but they will, at least until the next crisis or second and third wave of coronavirus pandemics. Since every state has some autonomy in how they decide to go about it, we'll soon be able to see who has the better approach. I would wager my entire stimulus check that every single state is going to fall in line and fall hardcore and Trump and those talking heads are just going to sound more crazy if they keep it up.

^ Ahh there is someone that actually gets what is happening, this thing is going to run its course and eventually things will get back to normal.

People are already starting to rebel. Small businesses in locked down areas, even in places like NYC, are re-opening in violation of the local orders, no doubt in a desperate attempt to avoid going bankrupt. People in areas currently subject to shelter-in-place orders are increasingly disobeying these orders to go to work and social gatherings. The economic and mental pressures that this is placing on people are just too great and this will only get worse as time goes on.

If we don't start opening some pressure release valves, things are eventually going to get violent, with desperate people doing increasingly desperate things.

Do you live under a rock? The Senate just passed that $2 trillion stimulus bill with $375+ billion earmarked for small businesses affected by Covid-19, Unemployment benefits have been expanded by $600 a week for the first 4 months. $1,200 checks will be sent to every adult with a SS number or TID number. $500 for children. The Democratic run House is guaranteed to pass it with even more benefits added on to it. I triple dog dare Trump to veto it or to even sit on it for more than an hour.

This lock down is only about a week old. Less than that in some areas and not even in effect in many states. How are people going to go bankrupt that quickly? Most people get paid every week or every two weeks. They can wait it out a little longer without any "real" damage yet...

People are STILL going out to social gatherings? Well, it's their funeral or hospital visit. Ignore the virus at their peril...

Two weeks ago I was traveling 50%, on the road every other week.
Expensing $2k-$2.5k per trip, airfare, hotel, rental car, airport parking, dinners, taxi, uber, gas... every other week.
Add an average of at least $500 a week for strip clubs or OTC calls.
Home now, not going anywhere. My company doesn't want me traveling. My customer doesn't want me to visit. All decided before any shutdown orders.
If they changed their minds, fuck them, I'm still working remote because I can, and their happy asses will deal with it of fire me (and I'll find a job with no fucking travel cause walking through a goddamned airport today fucked).
Even if businesses rebel and open anyways, or Trump orders shutdown orders lifted, people aren't going back.

".... People are STILL going out to social gatherings? ..."

Over the weekend, there was a social-media post for Miami boaters to hookup at a popular Miami boating location - subsequently the county-mayor closed all boating docks - one would think people on boats would not necessarily be a a big issue w.r.t. to transmission but per the article:

"... Numerous videos posted to social media showed the area jampacked, with boats tied together and hordes of people standing in close proximity on the sand ..."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronav…

Testing is obviously a bottleneck - below is a link of how much testing has been done on a state-by-state basis - seems kinda poultry to me in terms of the # of test administered - the infection rate can probably easily be 10x what is known right now that is not known due to the low-testing:

https://www.politico.com/interactives/20…

".... People are STILL going out to social gatherings? ..." Yes they are and they have even started throwing Coronavirus Parties. SMH

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/ne…

"This is one that makes me mad, and it should make you mad," Governor Beshear said of the case that occurred after the person attended a party of people in their 20s, who health officials say are as a group less vulnerable to COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

“This is the part where I, the person that tells everybody to be calm, have to remain calm myself," Beshear said. "Because anyone who goes to something like this may think that they are indestructible, but it’s someone else’s loved one that they are going to hurt.

“We are battling for the health and even the lives of our parents and our grandparents," he added. "Don’t be so callous as to intentionally go to something and expose yourself to something that can kill other people. We ought to be much better than that.”

^ The infection rate likely is 10x or more than the confirmed cases. There are still cases of people dying from pneumonia or similar ailments and those people of course are never diagnosed after they die, Why waste money as long as the cause was natural. Also there have been over 400k people tested and about 60k positives meaning that 1 out of 7 mostly sick people are testing positive. That's more than 15%. And there are a lot of mildly sypmtomatic people that haven't gotten tested. About half of the infected are either asymptomatic or presymptomatic so if even 1% of the country is positive, you have about 3.3 million cases RIGHT NOW.

Dr. Fauci in a very recent article in New England Journal of Medicine states that the fatality rate from covid-19 may turn out to be similar to the seasonal flu:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NE…

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) "

Short article, you can read the assumptions for yourself.

If I was a college kid with nothing to do, a coronavirus party would be tempting. When most of us were kids our parents exposed us to chicken pox intentionally. There's a vaccine these days for chicken pox of course.

If you're 20 and healthy the odds of going to the hospital are low the odds of death are even lower. Letting your body fight it off for a week then moving on with your life might be a better option than hiding out for months.

On the other hand I don't envy those over 65 or with heart conditions. The odds of you ending up in the hospital if you catch coronavirus aren't ones I want to face.

"... If you're 20 and healthy the odds of going to the hospital are low the odds of death are even lower. Letting your body fight it off for a week then moving on with your life might be a better option than hiding out for months ..."

People gotta get over this "if you're young and healthy no problem so just live your life like you want to" - it is a huge problem if young people keep getting infected b/c this will prolong and exasperate the situation - the point isn't that it won't effect young-people, the point is that young-people will make the pandemic worse and much-longer-lasting if they don't don't do as recommended.

^^Actually, a young person who's recovered most likely carries antibodies and is less likely to infect someone else

^ so the more young people that get infected the better?

"... a young person who's recovered most likely carries antibodies ..."

On this note - I recently heard they are starting to try a therapy of using plasma w/ Covid-19 antibodies from recovered patients to treat patients in Covid-19 distress

"If you're 20 and healthy the odds of going to the hospital are low the odds of death are even lower"

But a few have discovered the hard way, the risk of a horribly experience or death still exists.

And "healthy" means no diabetes, high blood pressure, etc... none of the various health related issues caused by obesity and inactivity that often sound way too common in kids these days.

I don't know what the answer is but probably more testing and isolating those at risk.

The article by Fauci is a big deal to me. If the fatality rate is only 0.1% then the worst case death toll is more like 170K instead of 1.7M.

DD doesn't seem to understand that for some people, even 9+ days without earnings is a big deal. And the social distancing stuff was kicking in long before the official closures here in FL.

And desert is right. it's going to be weeks before anyone sees anything, even if this things miraculously passes tomorrow. By then people will be hopelessly behind on their bills and these tidbits will be too little too late. Also, the bill does very little on an immediate practical level for small businesses. What a mess.

Doctors don't get the final say in economic decisions. We have to balance medical risks with the long-term economic health of hundreds of millions of people.

I like reading your stuff Dugan but when all of a sudden did you develop empathy for the common man/woman. This is out of character and I am pretty confused on who you really say you are. I am thinking Nice may have caught you on this one.

LOL Upright. Maybe I'm a complex guy, idk. In normal times all is fair and all that, but in times like this I feel sympathy for those who are utterly fucked for reasons completely beyond their control. I guess I just know too many people who are suffering now - I see them every day.

Don't worry Upright. When all this is over, I'm sure I'll have plenty of material about turning out hot girls who are foolish enough to get themselves in a bad spot. But right now I am more concerned with helping out those in my social circle as best I can.

^ Thought the people in your social circle were doing just fine, you even made snarky comments about nice's social circle. Jes sayin

^ No, I made snarky comments about Nice calling her friends "lower class."

The people in my social circle include the small business owners I outlined above. Suffice it to say that I've sprung for lunch in our part of the office complex a number of times over the past week.

Aww Rick! You seem to be too broke for a good OTC session! You are probably stir crazy on top of that. Just pm me and you and I can meet at my hotel. I will do a special deal. $250 at my location. I heard how you like bouncers. I used to be one so we can do some roll play at no extra charge! 😉

I live in the suburbs where only 50 people have tested positive in a county of over 400,000. Almost certainly an overreaction to shut down all the schools, rec centers, and restaurants -- especially if the case-fatality rate is now at 1 in 1,000.

Situation is different in NYC with 20,000 confirmed cases and the hospitals on the brink of failure.

RickiBoi here is an exercise for you to try, pretend you have just received a positive result from a COVID-19 test, how are you going to deal with it, you have children at home, and a wife, are you going to isolate to protect them, or what, I mean this thread is supposedly you developing empathy with folks that are broke, so show some empathy for all , I get it it you can have empathy for folks that are in the same circumstances as your self, that's not empathy buddy that's just situational awareness.

25, yet again for the umpteenth time now, I am not in their situation. I am simply seeing what they're experiencing, along with the complete shutdown of retail businesses here in the downtown area. It is a sad situation. In fact, when I hear their tales of woe I have to lie to them and tell them I'm going through the same thing, which fortunately I am not. By this time next week I may be one of the few commercial tenants up to date on rent in my building. It is a sad thing to see.

How is it that you cannot seem to comprehend sympathy for the plight of others? are you really that far gone? :)

"... I live in the suburbs where only 50 people have tested positive in a county of over 400,000. Almost certainly an overreaction to shut down all the schools, rec centers, and restaurants ..."

So - w/o the lockdown, do you really think that # would stay around 50?

Not to mention that the limited-testing being done means there are likely way more infections than the ones known.

^^^My guess is that sparsely populated areas (like mine) don't need such draconian policies. I can see shutting down non-essential things like the rec center, but not shutting down the local economy. Overall, with the case-fatality rate adjusted down to 0.1% (by people who know what they're talking about,) I'm feeling more confident that things will end.

This thing seems very contagious - w/o the distancing approach is hard to not imagine it just going up and up and up - it looks like to me that w/o draconian-measures, it only comes down to whether an area's cases will increase linearly vs exponentially - overall Covid-19 has proved to tilt towards the exponential side - can one imagine a high school of 3,000 kids, basically seating shoulder to shoulder, along with a couple of hundred adult staff, it not "significantly" affecting the contagion?

The preferred way to control the virus is to chase it down, one person at a time. When someone tests positive, track down and test everyone they’ve had contact with. Isolate those infected.

When there are 50 people infected in a county, that works. When there are 5,000, you’ve got to rely on people to self-test. When there are 50,000 ( or, you don’t have test kits), you lock everyone in their house and wait 2 weeks.

Beginning next week, I think the approach will be tailored to facts on the ground in each community.

I was just watching NightLine.

Seems South Korea has been the most, if not only, successful nation to really bend the curve - but it was done thru draconian measures, not "hey it's not so bad" - they have tested more than anybody and enforced various draconian measures.

NightLine also featured Hong Kong (the territory, not the club 😃) - where they did a good job of containing it - then they eased-up and it came back w/ a vengeance.

—-> “^ No, I made snarky comments about Nice calling her friends "lower class." “

LOL and Rick can only argue semantics now, rather than my main point that individuals, who have been displaced because of being in a “nonessential business”, can find something else easily in a pinch. It’s more convenient to say “lower class” instead of “lower socioeconomic tier”, what can I say?

Which btw, idk how that can really be a slur when I’m currently in the same boat anyways. Guess who is officially about to work as a pharm tech for the next few months? At least until it’s decided whether to resume the nomadic stripper life or decide on a vanilla career.

And speaking of work, there was plenty of advertising for different job options today. A billboard from the IRS was advertising 3-4 job positions. A road construction sign was advertising three job positions. A grocery store and a home improvement store had a sign up indicating they were hiring. And that’s just what I saw from the corner of my eye.

But my condolences, I’m sorry that your “colleagues“ go under within a mere nine days.

@nicespice - Ok I'll bite... First off I see your point about the elasticity of the lower wage class. As time has gone on I have am not as worried about that group and now I am really worried about everyone in the middle. I have a lot of friends who are middle and middle-upper class (many of them small business owners) who are fucked by what's going on. Almost no businesses are setup to withstand 2-3 months of complete shutdown while still paying a lot of their overhead.

No one that I know in that middle/upper class has not started looking for other temporary work yet.

I am happy to give a list of specific real world examples.

Two really interesting cases I have heard of:

1. I bought a skateboard a few weeks before everything went to shit. And although the small business that I purchased from is totally capable of functioning during the shutdown and has even seen an increase in demand they can't actually sell anything because their stock ran out and they can't get a resupply from china.
2. Apparently some churches may go under. Since people aren't going to church in person they are not giving money to churches and some might not last long.

Well RickiBoi I hope your DNR is notarized and up to date seems that you with your empathetic ways, don’t wish to devour scarce resources, from other more deserving folks

The heroci left wingers mortgaging the future of the young and healthy to expend all the time, energy and money and those who cannot be saved and those who lived their life without giving a fuck about their health ...until now. As the ship sinks the Democrats demand the equality of death for all no matter how old, young, sick, or healthy..... Nice to see the Democrats threatening to hold up the bailout though .... Bernie "the biggest douchebag on earth" leading the charge. Tr\ump's approval rating is almost 50% now -- great job Bernie lol.

Like it or not, the self-induced depression is already upon us. There is no way that GDP doesn't contract more than 20% the next few months and 30-50 million jobs are "lost". Ideology aside, we're all going to enjoy some good old fashioned socialism for the next few months...

Both quotes from Rick about 11 hours ago on this very thread:

“Suffice it to say that I've sprung for lunch in our part of the office complex a number of times over the past week.”

“In fact, when I hear their tales of woe I have to lie to them and tell them I'm going through the same thing, which fortunately I am not.”

Rick if I were you, I would take BBBC up on his offer. $250 may not seem much, but it can sure help you out during your trying times.

My county just issued an order closing all non essential businesses, I’m not sure if we fall in that category as it does classify contractors and trades as essential services, but I’m not going to complain at all about it I’m going to try and get clarification if we are actually essential service we will continue to serve our accounts if not I will help my employees as best I can and assist them to apply for unemployment insurance and keep their health insurance current for the time being

25 - my county has done same. My understanding is if you are home repair/maintenance (plumber, hvac service etc) you are deemed essential. A GC who is building may or may not and even could depend on the job you are working on. Local trade association or chamber of commerce should be able to answer

^ I received clarification from Palm Beach county, and we are qualified as an essential service organization, but still many customers have cancelled contracts in the last three days, I will do the best I can, and will offer my employees their earned vacation pay if I don't have enough work to give, and hopefully the stimulus package will allow them to collect their unemployment insurance fairly quickly, we have had a good run, and the virus will run its course, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Good luck 25

Best wishes 25.

The economy won't improve as long as the virus isn't controlled.

Everything was dead and there were layoffs a week before the lockdown.

The economy will bounce back quickly so long as people have some money and the virus is controlled.

What we need now js a moratorium on evictions or on rent and utilities.

I hope landlords get fucked over by this

“These hoes ain’t loyal!”

It looks like the US has lost and just has to deal with that. Not for good or anything hopeless like that, but getting out of this even slightly unscathed is impossible. It's impossible because it wasn't taken seriously for too long and still isn't being taken seriously in much of the country. It's only going to get worse (New York is huge freaking canary in a gold mine right at home), if extreme measures aren't taken. And the longer action is delayed, the more extreme measures will have to be taken. This $2+ trillion stimulus bill was just one of them. It sounds extreme and overreaction, but now i think it might not be enough.

The NFL is still conducting transactions as if there's going to be a season. They're deluded because they care about the money that will be lost and the fans care (somewhat at this point) about the game. The NBA and NHL season are gone. The MLB season is gone, but they're also deluded because they're thinking about money. Only Adam Silver seems to realize that the season is lost and has a clear head about it. The NFL season is probably gone, at least with live audiences, but even getting 100+ players and staff ready for a game is going to be extremely difficult. Unless the disease is completely eliminated (and there is a chance it can still happen, but it's going to require breakthroughs and very quick breakthroughs and implementation in testing) entire industries are going to be gone or basically gone for many months. Movies, gone. Dine in restaurants, gone. Gyms, gone. Hotels and travel, gone. They're not coming back until the disease is eliminated (like no new positive cases like in China). These are just the obvious industries. But any industry that deals with interacting with the public is likely gone or very culled.

This is one of the very few times that a problem, national crisis really, can't be solved without government and big government intervention at all levels but especially at the Federal level because those laws restrict the lower levels. This is literally like a major war time (on home soil or a like a civil war even) event or effort with similar required sacrifice. There are going to have to be temporary restrictions on freedom and liberty. Just look at other democratic countries employing almost fascist methods to get people in line and definitely fascist methods like categorizing people by color codes. These are sadly likely necessary. There are countries engaging in spying and surveillance essentially through the use of smart phones to track the disease, which is likely necessary. Strangely the US has less smart phones per person than many other countries often poorer countries like China and South Korea so even this action won't be quite as effective, but it can greatly help in isolating the disease.

Trump is so deluded right now, it's not even funny or sad. He's like the IOC in Japan that refused to believe that the Olympics wouldn't go on. No one else in the world is thinking about the freaking Olympics at a time like this and no one in the country is thinking about going back to work or the marketplace if they don't literally have to (only what is essential for personal and societal survival). If he keeps up this rhetoric, he's not just going to just anger Democrats and Independents, but his very own base.

@Dirk: That was very melodramatic.

@25: Good luck as you work through your business issues. In case you thought that I might try to use your situation as a means to drive certain points home, I'm not going to go there. There is never anything to celebrate in hardworking men and women losing their jobs, especially when it will likely be a long time before economic activity resumes in any normal fashion. Even if this thing is over in a couple of months, the economic ramifications are going to be deep and longlasting.

I think we will be just fine by June or July we will be busy as we were maybe even busier as there are going to be a percentage of contractors that will not recover from this event, I own my building it is debt free and it pays us income from other contractors that also have office space here and my insurance policies renewed last month are paid in full through 2021 just paid all employees health insurance through May and thre are some service contracts that are urgent and need to be taken care of, I think we’ll be fine and come out on the other side of this even stronger than we were before.

Well you can stay in that large but emptying river in Egypt until you can't, but i know which side i would rather be on. But the longer it takes for everyone to get on the same page (or boat for this analogy), the sooner you can kiss any chance of this thing (and this thing i mean just the initial crisis stage) being over in only "a couple months"...

^ were you talking to me ?

Also my "melodrama" was just the hypothetical scenario if people don't start getting very serious about this (and many are still not), and by serious, i mean being part of the solution (containing the disease) and not part of the problem (spreading the disease). Sadly, the way things are continuing to go now, it seems this hypothetical scenario (entire industries not coming back for many months if at all) has a real chance of happening...

@twentyfive If i wasn't addressing anyone, i was obviously talking to the OP or i guess not so obviously...

^ Ok, I think Dugan is having a rough time dealing with this he’s obviously frightened and lashing out because of his uncertainty.
I’m not going to say that everyone is going to be fine but the sun will rise tomorrow and every day going forward, most will be fine though

Less than a freaking week ago, like RandomMember, i was very optimistic, even confident that things would blow over eventually. And yes, one way or another, this will pass and we will get through it. But what will that look like? All you need is eyes and common sense. Low cases only means low testing. As soon as 1 case is found, and especially after 1 death is confirmed, that means the dookie has already hit the fan. One percent infection has already happened and the disease will spread uncontrollably unless measures are taken. These cases that are being confirmed right now are in people that are already showing symptoms. Symptoms that can take weeks to appear as just the asymptomatic but still infectious incubation period alone can take more than two weeks and then symptoms only start to appear.

How many other people do you think those even 50 cases (assuming that was all of them, which would be incorrect) in a rural area can infect? In New York, people are almost dying by the time they drag themselves to the hospital. The death rate has only been limited to a little more than 1% because it's only been a few days. As those 30,000+ in New York begin to recover (there are still almost 4,000 people still recovering in China, weeks and months after diagnosis, and a lot of them aren't going to make it as there are still handfuls of deaths every day still being reported there), a lot of them are going to die. That doesn't even factor the ones that simply run out of life-supporting equipment due to triage. And that number is nowhere near peaking yet so it's going to get way bigger.

But that's New York, you might say. EVERYWHERE else in the country is different. No, everywhere else in the country is just later in the curve. The curve stays slow and low for a LONG time then it just explodes once it hits a critical number. Simple arithmetic (or algebra). If NOTHING is done, then every single city and town will be like New York. That is what we are seeing all across Italy and now Spain and now New York. And these are places that are doing SOMETHING. You do not want to know what doing NOTHING looks like.

^ I meant everywhere else is earlier in the curve compared to New York. How much earlier i'm not sure, but it's definitely not weeks. New Jersey might only be a couple days behind. Chicago a couple days behind them. Every second is critical at this point, and i'm not exaggerating...

About that town with "only" 50 cases that shut down the entire area. That was still just a reactive response and not a proactive one. But that's far better than waiting until someone died (many days behind) to shut things down. Paraphrasing what the well fed governor of my state said, let's hope it was an overreaction. Believe me, or don't believe me, but that would be the best case scenario for this disease.

But as we're finding out, none of these reactions across the country or in the world even so far have been too early or too extreme. Remember when people though the NBA had overreacted by canceling the season? And now we're finding out about infections from players, coaches, fans and even a ref now in critical condition. Extreme as it was at the time, it was absolutely the right thing to do. People were complaining about why rich, young, asymptomatic healthy athletes were getting tested. Turns out, they need to isolate/quarantine all of them and their contacts and even their contacts' contacts which means just about everyone at this point.

Trump sent a letter to Governors today explaining how we’ll get people back to work. Every county will be assigned one of three levels of infection. The less prevalent the infections, the less severe the restrictions on going out in public. There be continuous monitoring using testing and adjustments made to restrictions based on results.

^ Oh, so like the Chinese method of color coding. Well, unfortunately, we're both too late in terms of response and testing to do that (find out where the levels of infection are and track them probably by GPS on smartphones) which will now take weeks, and too early in terms of flattening the curve to go back to work without recurving the curve, which might take months.

The US is now numero-uno in confirmed Covid-19 cases:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

===> "^ Ok, I think Dugan is having a rough time dealing with this he’s obviously frightened and lashing out because of his uncertainty. I’m not going to say that everyone is going to be fine but the sun will rise tomorrow and every day going forward, most will be fine though"

LOL. Could be. Or I could simply be angry at the over-reaction and lack of nuance in the responses of our local leaders. Governor DeSantis is a notable exception to this, but even in Florida local counties and cities are far too eager to go above and beyond without properly gauging the pros and cons.

I also think that you are really not grasping the long-term economic devastation that this has already caused, which will worsen the longer this goes on. Shame on so many politicos who panicked instead of led. This will not be forgotten when the smoke clears.

"IGott, new mortality calculations are putting it at closer to .1%, basically that of the flu. "

For fuck's sake man how are you still on this "its just the flu" bullshit?

Seasonal flu on average kills 3,000 people in Italy, over the course on an entire season. COVID 19 has killed at least 3 times that many people in the course of a month and it hasn't even spread all over the country. Its heavily concentrated in the Northern regions of Italy among approximately 20 million people. If it was everywhere in Italy there would probably be 24,000 dead right now.

I mean, I get it, the impact this is having on the economy is awful. But the consequences of this disease being allowed to spread out of control if we just went about our lives as normal would be a minimum of hundreds of thousands dead, perhaps millions. We have to continue social distancing or we are completely fucked. Hopefully our stimulus packages will repair some of the damage it has done to the economy.

For fuck's sake man how are you still on this "its just the flu" bullshit?

The case mortality rate is now estimated at 0.1%. That's a number backed up by Dr Fauci in a leading peer-reviewed medical journal. The case mortality rate is about the same as the flu.

Did anyone conducting this study ask Dr. Fauci how the fuck Italy has 8,200 dead bodies right now?

I wonder if you understand the point, @CC? If you could somehow come up with a large random sample of people infected with covid-19, across all age groups, the fatality rate would be approximately 1 in 1000, which is about the same as the flu. Higher probably of dying if you're older with pre-existing conditions and less chance if you're a scrawny young guy like yourself. Initially, it was thought that covid was 10x more lethal -- but that's been revised down by the scientific community.

Covid may be more contagious and there's no vaccine. So more people will probably come down with the disease. But @Dugan's initial statement is correct: the lethality of covid is likely about the same as the flu.

Yes and studies can, and often have been wrong because of errors that the medical scientists didn't take into account.

The cases in Italy are not evenly distributed. Almost half of them are occurring in the Lombardy region.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099…

Bergamo is a city of 120,000 people. Typically during the month of March, about 3 people die per day for a total of 90 for the month of March. As of March 19th, they had 620 deaths. This means that over a week ago, 0.5% of the entire city was dead.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marz…

I hear these new numbers are coming from Iceland. We have no idea how things are gonna pan out in Iceland yet or if they got the S strain instead of the L strain.

How did Italy get so many deaths ? Well, no one over 60 is being admitted to the hospital. They are being sent home to fend for themselves. So, you know, there’s that.

Incidentally, the source of the spread in Italy and Spain has been traced back to a soccer match involving a Spanish team playing in Italy. Very exciting. Lots of hugging followed by a long bus ride home with 20,000 Spaniards.

@Mark94

You say that like it is a mitigating factor. This is an inevitable result of the virus getting out of control is that hospitals get overwhelmed and people can't be treated. That's why we can't just walk around like everything is normal.

Or, consider that our public health system is vastly better than Italy and, as a nation, we are coming together to fight the disease. Look at the response in New York. Doubling the number of hospital beds. Finding, or converting, thousands of ventilators. Rushing experimental treatments to hospitals in massive numbers.

I’m not saying it isn’t horrific. It is. But, I’m saying it isn’t inevitable that every city in America will see massive numbers of deaths. We are fighting back and our leaders at all levels, with some exceptions ( DeBlasio), are doing the right thing.

We are number 1 of the TOTAL confirmed cases. From those 80K cases how many are still active or recovered. That linear graph is uses to create fear, what we should be focused on, is there a spike in new daily cases.

You can't have parts of the country or of states open and others kn lockdown. It doesn't work like that unless domestic travel is shutdown. In which case there won't be much of an economy.

You can have people going to work. But hardly any will patronize non essential businesses enough to keep them open so long as we have this pandemic.

As far as hospitals go. Keep in mind other illnesses aren't going away. The virus will take beds away from others thus increasing overall deaths in the country.

And life isn't about statistics. This will affect all of us in some way. People will think differently as the virus and economic rammifications spread.

Mark we have a private health care industry not a public health care system.

My main concern is keeping people housed during the crisis

The growth of infections in New York seems to have flattened out. Cases are doubling every 4 days instead of every day, as they had been. Since deaths trail infections by 2 weeks, those numbers will continue to grow for 2-4 weeks. Things are going to get worse, but social distancing is having an impact and the exponential spread is clearly slowing.

^ What's the major source for New York's outbreak? If Italy and Spain's outbreak can be traced to a soccer match and that wouldn't even need hugging, but a lot of shared airspace and breathing (aerosolization) between fans, i feel badly for New Orleans with Mardi Gras, especially since that is also a very local event and the future outbreaks in Florida from spring break revelers that haven't social distanced when they came back. In that case, i also wonder if major outbreaks can be traced to places that have large packed sports arenas (NBA/NHL).

@RandomMember The lethalness of Covid-19 is only similar to the flu in overall rate, but potentially 10-50 times as deadly in total deaths in a shorter period of time as it seems about 10x-50x as prevalent as the flu. That's not even factoring triage, where everyone that can be saved is saved. A lot of Covid-19 critical patients will just be given up on before they could survive.

But the biggest difference between Covid-19 and the flu is not the rate or even the sheer number of dying. It's the huge number of long term hospitalizations for a disease with no cure or no effective treatment. People that get hospitalized with the flu and pneumonia are often treated and cured or resolved long before they reach the ICU. A large number of Covid-19 patients just end up going from ER or general to ICU and just stay there until life support is ended as the ICUs get overwhelmed and then if they die, they die.

If you want to see what happens if even 1% of Americans end up going to the hospital for long stays in the ICU all at almost the same time, (i don't even think all the ICU's in the country can accommodate even 1 million patients let alone 3 million only for one condition), that is the situation that could be absolutely catastrophic.

See my post: 'All the Coronavirus Statistics Are Flawed' for caution about drawing unwarranted conclusions from flawed Covid stats.

https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7149…

For an in-depth explanation of Covid Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, and Diagnostics click below [50min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPg…

For a shorter explanation with focus on Diagnosis, Treatment [incl cloroquine hcl], Prognosis, and Precautions in treatment click below [36min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdoN_XsH…

Factual information trumps wild speculation and useless arguments based on bullshitting [= bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. ... the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false,... only cares whether their listener is persuaded.]

New York is densely populated, is a destination for international travel, didn’t close it’s schools when most thought it should, and city officials encouraged residents to attend parades and festivals well after CoVid was known to be present.

Yeah not closing schools was terribly foolish consider what a vector for the disease children, particularly young children, are, being almost always asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic with the disease.

@Mark94

Our healthcare system is not better than Italy's is and it certainly isn't vastly better.

https://www.sciencenews.org/wp-content/u…

Santa Clara County under look down:

www.sccgov.org

Who makes the best teledildonic rigs? Got links?

teledildonics.co

SJG

@CC99 “Our healthcare system is not better than Italy's is and it certainly isn't vastly better.”


As someone with a little more than a passing familiarity with the subject and as someone who has personally been on the receiving end of the Italian healthcare system (trauma care), I can say unequivocally that you know not of what you speak.

FYI I have recently returned to the States for medical care because no other place in the ENTIRE world offers the same chance for survival (I put it at 50-50). Had I had to depend on Canada there would have been ZERO chance of survival as well as if I sought care in the horrible systems available in any of the Scandinavian countries. In the UK with the vaunted NHS, I would put my chances at about 15%. I am lucky that I have a US passport, insurance and money but none of that changes the fact that the US system, (from routine care to critical trauma care to cancer care to etc, etc, etc) is far better for everyone lucky enough to be in the States than virtually every other system throughout the rest of the world. And the USA is by far better prepared and more capable to respond to this contagion than damn near everywhere.

Stop accepting information off the internet without knowing what data and/or agenda makes up that information. When you eventually grow up, if you survive that long, you are going to be embarrassed to look back on what you ”knew” to be true during your current awkward adolescent stage. You might want to start forming your opinions about the world by venturing out to find out what really lies beyond that scary doorway leading into the real world.

Healthcare in the greater Boston area where we live is the best in the world. Sorry to deflate the pompous ignorance of progressives.

Other nations present the illusion of a good healthcare system because they officially provide free universal coverage. The media buys into this. The reality is that there are long waits for treatment, and severe restrictions on what procedures are available, even before CoVid.

In America, world class treatment is provided to anyone who presents themselves at a hospital, including those with no insurance or money. Plus, our Public Health agencies are in place for situations like this pandemic.

Look at the resources being brought to bear in New York. No other country can manage this. China and Italy simply sent people home to die. That’s why their mortality rates are multiples of ours.

Dam! BBBC is on ignored! Lol

The U.K. Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has tested positive for CoVid.

Can't wait to see what Cock and bull response CC99 has to Babydoc.

CC99 talks out of his ass a bit too much.

3 days ago I mentioned there were 800 dead. Checking this morning, it's over 2000.
1200 dead in 3 days.
And that RATE is escalating. Averaging 400 a day now, when only 800 total 3 days ago? It will be over 1000 a day by Friday.
It's gone South, BTW. Any of you in Florida should probably check out the maps.
And for the argument that "there are only 50", that's 50 confirmed infections, people who have become sick enough to bother testing, and probably had to prove exposure to another confirmed infection to be tested, because there aren't enough test kits.
Many people believe the real infection rate, counting all those not showing symptoms or just mildly sick and not getting tested, but all are still able to spread the virus. So, 500 infected people, and 200 of those probably don't know they are spreading the virus as they stand in a supermarket check out line and cough once or twice cause they think they have a cold...
Without shutting everything down, instead of a supermarket check out line, that's half a restaurant. Maybe two dancers at the club, who spread the virus with no symptoms to every guy they ask for a dance in the next three nights.
And just think about a school!!!

A story that is going to get big after CoVid is contained is how the European Union has done nothing to help Italy and Spain. People in those two countries are pissed off big time. Beyond that, most countries are closing their borders to stop the spread, which is strictly against EU constitution. This may be the beginning of the end for the EU which will have huge economic impact.

^ I assume those countries are trying to preserve their resources for their own citizens since it's not a given they cannot also get his just as bad

Looks like the President saw the light and is extending the social distancing orders until April 30 and they are looking into allowing restaurant meals to be expensed as a business deduction, so that might apply to strip clubs, might be a big deal for entertaining clients coming back, lets see if they follow through.

25,
He realized people would expect to see him in Church Easter Sunday...

^ The whole thing is bizarre I mean he accused medical workers of stealing supplies but his fans are truly blind and delusional.

I'm mostly in Rick's camp here. I think we need some caution. But we can't go on like this for more than a few more weeks. Here's what I don't understand, how can people on here be so fearless about getting an STD and so terrified by this virus that most people will experience with little or no symptoms.

Well someone at my 500 person company tested positive. I don't deal with him directly but I talk to people he talks to.

".... I'm mostly in Rick's camp here. I think we need some caution. But we can't go on like this for more than a few more weeks ..."

It's shortsighted to trade short-term relieve for long-term success, it's like winning the battle (economic relieve) but losing the war (have it be like NYC in most major metro areas in short order)

I'm in the NY area and watching the news you would think we are all dead. We are not. Everyone I know is fine.
How do you get your dick sucked with no condom by a stripper but worry about a really bad flu?

My business has picked up since the virus started..... most of my income is tied to how well the stock market is doing. I have had more new investments than stock market declines, my April 1 (2nd Qtr.) billing will be my highest ever. Couple this with the fact that I am at home not spending money, everything is great for me. I am paying a first qtr bonus to my employees to help them out, they have still been compensated by me but several spouses have lost income. I told them that we may have a smaller year end bonus but I wanted them to have the cash now

Papi- How long is long term? How short is short term ? I liken this shutting the economy down as shutting off a cars engine as you approach a gas station turnoff when you're low on gas. (Think old manual transmission car, I did this on an old VW Beetle on several occasions). Ideally, you coast into station, but if you stop short, you'll either have to push car, or start it up again, waste gas starting, getting car up to speed, and running out of gas still short of goal.
I don't pretend to know the "tipping point", my feeling is many people aren't too tolerant of anything much longer than a month lock down. The rate of case increases between on and Easter will be very telling. Today is merely a snapshot of 10 to 14 days ago. It's been 13 days since FL governor closed bars and night clubs statewide. We should (hopefully) see how well the social distancing is flattening the curve over the next several days. I've heard mid April peak bandied about, we shall see.
Ideally, from a pure doctors standpoint would be to quarantine everyone until rate of new infections drop to zero, but the time to achieve that would be untenable for many people/businesses.
I would rather have seen President Trump extend original social distancing order for 15 more days at the time he made the "open for business by Easter" statement. He was right to express the sentiment that he did then, but should have said, "extend another 15 days, then take another look around Easter as to when to open things up again. " "My goal going forward is to contain the pandemic without wrecking the US economy too much."

===> "It's shortsighted to trade short-term relieve for long-term success, it's like winning the battle (economic relieve) but losing the war (have it be like NYC in most major metro areas in short order)"

It's equally shortsighted to plunge us into another Great Depression without weighing the trade-offs between a "perfect world" medical response and the long-term effects of that sort of economic devastation. Because make no mistake, Depression era issues are what we will be dealing with if this goes on for too much longer.

We can recover financially - it's a different story if 100s-of-thousands die - those 100s-of-thousands are not recoverable

Fact is the President and most of his advisers believe as most sane people do we can recover financially, lives that are lost will have a greater impact on our country, y'all can say what you like and criticize what ever you choose to, but Trump has made his decision and we will have to deal with this shut down, like it or not.

Damn - Italy just surpassed 100,000 cases - and Spain is not far-behind.

Yesterday was the first-day the U.S. surpassed 20,000 new cases in one day

Yeah - let's open things up ASAP

It's funny to watch scare old men so easily poo poo the economic ramifications. I guess it's easy to prioritize zero risk over earning when you've had the luxury of a lifetime to build reserves without a Depression era event to contend with. Too bad people with young families don't have the same luxuries.

I guess it's all a matter of perspective. I'd readily trade 20,000 elderly people who have lived their lives to save at least as many younger ones who will likely kill themselves out of sheer despair once the economic damage is widespread and lasting. Heck, I would also trade them to prevent potentially millions of children from spending their formative years in abject poverty.

But that's just me. Like I said, perspective matters.

dugan is TUSCL's version of Lindsey Graham. Not the content but the melodramatic style of expression and the shift from smooth charmer to kranky bitch.

Wah, wah, wah said the progressive. Progressives are writing the President begging him to fucking help Iran. there is nothing those dirty rats won't do to harm the United States.

Funny joker, because again from my perspective, the scared old men bunkering in their homes and yelling for a nationwide lockdown are the melodramatic ones. This too is a matter of perspective I suppose. But the economic predictions coming from the economists working for the large investment banks are quite, who are usually far more accurate than the government policy wonks, are dire to say the least.

😁 Depending on how you view Graham it could be a compliment.

BTW, Props for effective use of projection; seeing your own melodramatic style in others bur not in yourself.
'Back of the head' phenomenon - several members see you as melodramatic, you don't; they see the 'back of your head' more clearly than you can w/o mirrors and cameras - that is w/o self insight.

Nothing unique to you; we all do this.

threads like this prove you can’t fix stupid

I read an interesting article recently about a country club. The author was musing how politics were playing out through the covid19 situation. He said that the proportion of older golfers had gone up -- relatively more younger golfers were staying home. And of the golfers that did show up, the younger golfers observed social distancing, the older golfers didn't, like they were practically challenging the whole thing. From what I can tell, this is reflective of society in general: broad swaths of society are prioritizing health in the short term. It is old guys, and some Republicans -- and especially where those two groups meet -- that are prioritizing the economy. Just as on tuscl, where it's ONLY old guys complaining about the economy, most (all?) of our younger members are prioritizing the lockdown, for now, that's where society is also. "Screw the lockdown, re-start the economy ASAP and let whoever dies, dies" is a decrepit old guy position. It's one of a number of fun reality reversals.

Reading through this thread, it seems the argument is over two, polar opposite, options. Shut everything down for many weeks or months, or open everything Immediately.

As is usually the case, I suspect the optimal solution is somewhere in between. But, that wouldn’t be as fun to argue.

@Joker: "..dugan is TUSCL's version of Lindsey Graham."

_____________________
lol, that ain't no compliment. One of my favorites, Steve Schmidt (ex-GOP pundit), called Graham a "pilot fish" -- i.e, a little fish that follows the direction of big fish.

"As is usually the case, I suspect the optimal solution is somewhere in between. But, that wouldn’t be as fun to argue."

Too true! I don't think the optimal solution is in between -- half-assed measures get you looking like Spain or Italy. Instead, my guess is full commitment to the lockdowns (evidence is coming up now that these are working in many areas), while developing a strategic policy that gets us out of the lockdowns ASAP -- strategic leadership is what I think has been lacking. I'd like to see a "here are the X conditions that need to be met to relax the lockdowns. And here is our plan to meet those conditions".

Seems it’s the same old stupidity the yuk yuk s that are most pro Trump are against anything that Trump does that seems normal, they seem to want Trump to drive this country into the scrap heap, and they’re rooting for large numbers of deaths
My own opinion is they’re mostly broke ass losers that think there’s some benefit to them from total chaos and anarchy.

-->"strategic leadership is what I think has been lacking. I'd like to see a "here are the X conditions that need to be met to relax the lockdowns. And here is our plan to meet those conditions"."

Yes indeed. But far too mature for the USA general electorate/general public.

@mark: awesome!!!

Of course lazy, stupid young people don't care about the economy. They never knew or understood freedom and self reliance. They're so fearful that s shitty existence is acceptable. Those who have never lived always fear death.

Those who have never lived always fear death.
Not afraid to die, but I would prefer it not be in isolation while choking to get a breath. The economy is going to take a big hit whether from social distancing or from mass infection requiring hospitalization of 14% of the infected. Ignoring this isn't really a viable option and I suspected the economic blow would be even greater.

"Of course lazy, stupid young people don't care about the economy. They never knew or understood freedom and self reliance. They're so fearful that s shitty existence is acceptable. Those who have never lived always fear death."

ski, I didn't bring this up to debate the why's. Just to point out Rick's hysterical positioning of supporting the medical establishment's priorities around the lockdown as "scared old guys", when in fact it has broad support through society and it's "restart the economy and let them all die" is actually the heavily old-guy position.

I am a young millenial. I am okay with letting the economy go to shit. Then again, I'm not really all that desperate for an income; I have savings and investments.

If the stock market continues to fall then that's okay, I'll just buy them at a fairer value; they're still kinda overvalued IMO. If the bond market goes to shit then that's okay with me too cuz I don't have any large allocation to bonds. If the US dollar fails then that's okay, I own (physical) gold and I'll buy more before shit goes down. If the whole global economy goes to shit and fiat currency fails due to hyperinflation caused by quadrillions of dollars flooding the system then that's okay too.... I own bitcoins.

@FTS - FWIW the Spanish Flu killed about 1/4 of the world's population and had minimal effect on the stock market.

Did they have a stock market in 1918 ? I thought it was all robber barrons like Rockefeller and Carnegie.

^ Sure did and it crashed 10 years afterward.

From what I see people who live life to the fullest want the economy saved and people who don't feel othewrwise. My Mom is in assisted living and paralyzed by fear. My UIncle is in assisted living and is still golfing and socializing. He's been there 5 years and says when you know people who die every week, it just becomes part of life.

===> "threads like this prove you can’t fix stupid"

Yup. As does your comment.

^ At least you don't hear me advocating letting a bunch of folks die so I should benefit, ya selfish callous prick.

The amount of money we spend extending the life of the very ill is a disgrace.

@skibum - you touch on a sensitive extremely complex topic. So sensitive in fact no one has the balls to bring it up.

^ That's only because you aren't among them, I guarafuckintee if your life was among those being extended you'd sing a different tune, besides why do you give a fuck, tell me something big shot are you paying any of your employees while your office is closed if so, how long are you prepared to do so ?

@lone wolf they got balls bringing it up, they have first class health insurance through a medical employees benefits which most folks don't have, they are bringing it up knowing full well that any care they need is covered.

@25 that's the complexity I'm talking about. Normally, someone with good insurance would be admitted and given futile EOL care as long as the money holds out.

The hospitals are probably still working within that business model even in this new paradigm.

An extremely dangerous topic for anyone to broach.

100-200 thousand dead just in the US is considered a best case scenario and i believe it. The only thing that could stop that is vast immediate improvement in care and treatment, which is unlikely (certainly in the immediate future) because it very difficult to treat patients and do research at the same time. Research that is also constrained by red tape that will not go away, and for many valid reasons. But seeing how many if not most Americans are taking the crisis right now, i would say that 500k+ deaths is very possible if not even probable. Still less than the 2+ million that would supposedly occur from doing "nothing".

Now for people that think that 500k deaths isn't a big deal, consider that is roughly the amount of Americans that died in combat from every single American war combined of which the vast majority are from World War II and the Civil War. All of those deaths took years to accumulate not weeks. In just a few weeks, we will be seeing around 2k+ additional deaths every day for months, just in the US. And don't think i want this to happen. But there is just this sense of inevitability at this point. 2k+ deaths a day is the equivalent of a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 every day. But somehow that seems normal. You can cynically or heartless say that 80+% of them are just old people that already had a foot in the grave, so we're just easing the inevitable burden on healthcare and social security ahead of time. That's seriously messed up. What about the other 100k+ that still had much left to live for? And this is for a moderate case scenario. Not the worst ones that would happen if the laissez faire crowd (although that crowd is getting much smaller by the day) have their way...

===> "^ At least you don't hear me advocating letting a bunch of folks die so I should benefit, ya selfish callous prick."

True. Instead you're advocating for the max protection of every elderly life at all costs, no matter how many future suicides, violent crimes or poverty stricken children result from it.

If you actually left that cave you've crawled into in abject fear and were seeing what I'm seeing, you might feel differently. It's getting bad already with lots of people struggling. We don't see much of this reported right now because the focus is on the virus, but eventually we will.

^^^ "100-200 thousand dead just in the US is considered a best case scenario and i believe it. The only thing that could stop that is vast immediate improvement in care and treatment"

From my read of the data I would disagree. Of the people who get put on a ventilator only 10% will survive. No matter how many doctors, hospitals and ventilators we have it won't make much of a difference. That is a hard thing to accept but if you can then Dugan's logic starts to make sense.

30,000 people dead from the flu, but fuck them; corona virus rules!!!!!

Please RickiBoi spare me your bullshit, pull up your big boy pants and show a little American fortitude, a small drop of patriotism if you have any, all you've done is whimper about what's not working for you, well let me clue you in, Mr Trump made these decisions, not me, he's the guy you voted for, show him a little support, I've been doing my part, not running around taking potshots at the decisions your POTUS is making do your own part and quit being a simpering little bitch.

"True. Instead you're advocating for the max protection of every elderly life at all costs, no matter how many future suicides, violent crimes or poverty stricken children result from it."

Rick, No one is advocating for that -- that's a made up position, a self-constructed windmill to tilt at. What most of us advocate is listening to the medical experts, who in turn should be learning from the experiences of other countries, especially the collapse of the health systems there. We also recognize that while this hits the elderly the worst, it's not exclusive to the elderly by any stretch; making this strictly about the elderly is itself misguided.

By contrast, as you and skibum have been honest about -- admirably so, actually -- your position IS accurately represented as "let however many people die, die; open the economy back up".

This argument is between "listen to medical experts on how to handle this, to ensure the health system is overwhelmed and even WORSE long term economic effects felt" and "let people die". There is no "max protection of every elderly life at all costs" present in the current round of arguments, that part is an invention.

A made up position? Like Republicans only care about the economy and not people? Made up, stupid, childish bullshit like that? Seems to me Rick is advocating for groups that some of you don't belong to and are thereby less important. Progressive lol., If you think that speniding a million dollars to extend the life of an 85 year old woman with terminal cancer for 18 months, is fair in a system where people go without, it is you who has issues.

@pauldrake - "Of the people who get put on a ventilator only 10% will survive."

I find this very relevant. Interesting that out of all the interviews I've seen on the need for ventilators, I don't recall the survival rate ever being questioned.

@PaulDrake What exactly do you disagree with? By vast improvements in care and treatment, i don't mean more ventilators. Although, i don't think the figure that 90% of the ventilated die is true, especially with younger patients (which are more than 10% of the ICU patients). They almost certainly will if they aren't though. I'm talking about drug therapies and antibodies from convalescing Covid-19 patients. Also Mercedes' F1 team engineers are developing a CPAP (which already exist) which is much less invasive and dependent on around the clock maintenance and care, but provided the life supporting continuous flow of oxygen to the lungs to buy time for the immune system to defeat the virus, and are can produce them at the rate of about 1,000 a day. Peanuts maybe, but if every F1 engineering team works on this as well as all the idle manufacturers around the world, you might be able to produce enough of them to make a difference in death rates.

However, it is definitely not too late to just have to accept the worst case scenarios, which are unacceptable considering that many other countries haven't given up and are doing better jobs of containing this. I don't even believe that the Dugan camp is accepting these scenarios. But i'm definitely well past the early stages of grief and have moved on to acceptance and action. Many other are still tripped up in the denial stage...

"A made up position? Like Republicans only care about the economy and not people? Made up, stupid, childish bullshit like that? Seems to me Rick is advocating for groups that some of you don't belong to"

I'm a Republican, but I can call out made-up positions in any direction; in this case, there's too many made-up positionsn (it's only out-of-touch old guys who are for the lockdowns, only old people are at risk, those advocating lockdowns are doing so at a "save every life at all costs" presumably forever) for his argument to stand up on any level. Furthermore, no one wants Rick's advocating on their behalf -- his (and your) position is currently held by a few out-of-touch old guys, at least currently. There's broad support otherwise for the current course, which ironically is probably the far smarter one for the economy in the long term, provided we can work our way out of the lockdowns quickly enough.

If we do nothing about 3% will die. We're at 25% unemployment because of the shutdown. The planet is overpopulated and 3% less people would not be all bad. 25% unemployment is definitely bad. If the shutdown they have in NJ goes on more than another month I think that's crazy. It doesn't mean we couldn't have precautions like lower max people and ban on mass gatherings like sports

===> "No one is advocating for that -- that's a made up position, a self-constructed windmill to tilt at. "

===> "By contrast, as you and skibum have been honest about -- admirably so, actually -- your position IS accurately represented as "let however many people die, die; open the economy back up"."

Sub, you couldn't be more off - it's almost like you tried. 25 has already advocated for shelter-in-place for the entire state of FL, even though most of the issues are concentrated in one small area of the state. By contrast, all I am advocating is reasonable easing of restrictions for areas that have been more lightly hit in order to mitigate the economic carnage. Some of you guys are obviously amazingly out of touch with how this is already hurting tens of millions U.S. citizens.

Tomorrow I get to go back to my office and hear endless stories about people who can't pay their April rent or make their phone and car payments. By the time that the enhanced unemployment and stimulus checks come, it will already be be too little too late. Tomorrow I also get to see two small businesses move their shit out and close doors. And this is just the beginning. Economists are predicting Depression level unemployment and poverty if this drags on for much longer.

Oh, and those endless stories of April rent I noted above have to do with tenants of the property manager in my building. They rent out lower income housing and many of their tenants work in the local restaurants and attractions. A number of them also have children, who will no doubt be scarred for life seeing their parents so helpless and their living situations so insecure.

Dugan you are just trolling, It's time for you to shut up and actually pay attention, you always try to misrepresent every statement made by anyone just to be an argumentative jerk, I advocated following the rules set by our duly elected representatives set out, you keep advocating breaking the rules, that's sure to have an impact on those children you claim to be so concerned about, fact is children with parents that resent and disrespect, authority, end up in trouble. Try to act like an adult and show your children there is a responsible way to behave, stop being such a jerk

===> "I advocated following the rules set by our duly elected representatives set out"

25, funny that a guy who constantly rants about his duly elected President is suddenly so eager to unquestioningly lap up rules set forth by his duly elected representatives. One can only conclude that it is because you agree with them, so man up and own it rather than acting like a passive aggressive twat. I was 100% on the money in my characterization of your position.

Sadly, those authority bucking parents who you referred to don't have the luxury of your cowardice, er, I mean sudden law and order orthodoxy, because they need to figure out how they're going to house and feed those kids.

^ Last word is yours as always you are just so predictable. I believe Clubber said it best sometimes you just need to let Idiots be rong.

Once again 25 anyone who doesn't agree with you must be an idiot. You live in quite a bubble world, where poor people don't suffer enormously in economic shutdowns and you, of course, are always right. Maybe someday I'll be able to build my own bubble world as well - a man can dream. ;)

Once again not anyone, just you and its been demonstrated you are an idiot.

Hey 25, I thought I was getting the last word? ;)

Sorry my bad, its all yours

To all those who don't live in their own bubbles, before you pass judgment on this as purely a medical crisis, ask around. Think about what all those people who work in your closed retail stores, gyms, malls, restaurants (most are running on skeleton staff now for takeout), nail salons, hair cutting place, car care center, sporting venues, movie theaters (and other family entertainment places) dry cleaners, house cleaners, daycare providers, after school tutors, after school care, etc., etc. etc., are all probably doing right now after 2-3 weeks with no pay. Ask yourself how are these people paying their bills and the most likely answer is that they aren't.

I am rich from this! I am a billionaire!

https://blog.coinmarketcap.com/2020/04/0…

^^^ proof

Fuck you mackie!

I do have to applaud Rick for thinking for himself and not being bound by ideaology. I don't agree but I can see his point.

We're faced with an awful choice. Sacrifice a bunch of (mostly) old people or hurt the economy in a way that will sting the service professions worst.

But on a personal level I'm not even willing to have my housekeeper come clean my home and I'm sure she is hurting for money.

I told my housekeeper to stay home but have been paying her weekly anyway. She sends me all kinds of prayers when she gets my check each week. I'm not a religious man but, foxhole and all that, and I'm certain she has more sway with the Big Man than I do, so I'm with it

Probably an unpopular opinion, but the most at risk are 65+ with underling health conditions. Health conditions are obesity, smoking, diabeties, so these people were already trying to kill themselves by being fat. Second, most seniors are already isolated because they live in nursing centers. I know i wouldnt leave my parents in a nursing center, when they get old. So do the children that have abadoned their parents in nursing centers really care for their parents.

also if youre 65+ you are not going to die if you test positve

"Health conditions are obesity, smoking, diabeties, so these people were already trying to kill themselves by being fat"

Those aren't the only health conditions they're talking about . According to Medscape, by the standards by which "pre-existing condition" is meant for covid19, 50% of people 55 and over have some pre-existing condition or other. Don't be fooled into thinking there's lots of old people without pre-existing conditions

I guess one should assume robberies are gonna start increasing in these times - so being aware of one's surroundings is important if they have to be out and about.

A Miami-woman decided it was a good idea to withdraw $10,000 to have at home given everything going-on - unbeknownst to her some lowlifes witnessed her bank-transaction, followed her-home, and robber her of all her $$$:

https://wsvn.com/news/local/police-at-le…

The single biggest health condition is hypertension, which affects more than half of Americans over 50. Yes, high blood pressure was considered a comorbidity.

Fuck you Mackie

Shitters Are Going Broke Over This

===> "I told my housekeeper to stay home but have been paying her weekly anyway. She sends me all kinds of prayers when she gets my check each week."

You're doing the right thing IMO. We are continuing to pay service providers for our kids because we want them to be around when this is over. Most have switched to online formats which frankly suck and are barely worth the effort, but we feel compelled to support them until they can get things going again in person.

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-ho…

Here is an article with longer term modeling on the effects of social distancing. It doesn't make much of a difference.

Dugan is right. The sooner it ends the better for society as a whole.

Paul, that's not what that article says. For example, "This is not to say that there are not good reasons to use mitigations as a delay tactic. For example, we may hope to use the months we buy with containment measures to improve hospital capacity, in the hopes of achieving a reduction in the mortality rate." In fact, flattening the curve -- which the authors agree happens -- is exactly what's been cited here, over and over and over again, that's not something anyone should be confused about. The authors, and the expert epidemiologists doing the advising, all agree -- these short term mitigations exactly have kept the hospitals from being run, and the data confirming that it's reduced the mortality rate is coming in. The authors point that the models should extend past the mitigations is well-taken; but the basic reasoning behind flattening the curve appears well-justified. Moreover, with no fewer than 6 drugs in trial, there's at least some hope that when the mitigations are lifted, we'll have other strategy. If "the sooner it ends the better for society", you misunderstood the article -- they are not claiming lifting the mitigations immediately is the right answer, they are not claiming letting hospitals get overrun is the right answer, they are calling for more transparency in the models, which is reasonable.

Not my intention to gloat because it’s a terrible thing, but today Florida governor Ron DeSantis enacted a shelter at home order shutting down most Florida businesses including my own.

A silver-lining is that this may have been a shot-across-the-bow to get us to wake-up and be better-prepared going-forward - this pandemic has showed us how unprepared the US and the world is for such emergencies - lack of testing, lack of data-collection, delayed reactions (shelter-in-place, etc); etc - we've been caught with our-pants-down and in a way lucky it's not a worse virus that is much more deadly.

Seems the U.S. death-rate (per confirmed cases) is higher than Italy's:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…

@Papi_Chulo “Seems the U.S. death-rate (per confirmed cases) is higher than Italy's:”


Da fuck you talking about?

USA total cases: 213,798 deaths: 4773
Italy total cases: 110,574 deaths: 13,155

That’s from your link and BTW none of these raw numbers that people are fixated on mean much of anything at this point and won’t until it’s all over.

So everybody needs to take a fucking chill pill. Seriously. You’re not doing yourselves any favors by obsessing about shit you can’t do anything about. In fact you are likely making yourselves more vulnerable physically to catching something with self induced stress. Take a break, stay well hydrated (water not booze), eat right, take a multi vitamin daily, exercise and get your mind on something else.

I never do this but I’m going to remind everyone that in times like these contributions to charities fall off as people face uncertainties in their own lives. I’m talking about the real charities not the fly-by-night profiteers that invariably pop up. So re-look at your charities and go write some checks if you’re able. And closer to home if you are in a position to do so, consider following @subraman’s lead and help take care of those close to you who are facing partial or total loss of income.

Most of the rest of the world doesn’t have the average TUSCL income of $350k and they are having it much, much worse than most everyone here.

Stay healthy, stay strong and let the hate go.

Yeah - I used the wrong # in my calculation for Italy - I mistakenly read the "new cases" column vs the "deaths" column

Man - there seem to still be cruise-ships w/ 1000s of passengers on board out at sea - I heard there were 4 on their way to Miami

===> "Not my intention to gloat because it’s a terrible thing, but today Florida governor Ron DeSantis enacted a shelter at home order shutting down most Florida businesses including my own."

You're right, it's not something to gloat about. It's also disappointing that DeSantis caved into the political pressure, for all of the reasons discussed in this thread. By the end of April the cost of these shutdowns in terms of human suffering is going to be astronomically high. While boredom will likely be the worst enemy for those of us with cash reserves and freezers stuffed full of food, many other there have neither.

That should have been "many others out there..."

My only issue is getting food. No mortgage and more than enough to live on without even touching my retirement account. Planning ahead helped. Part of being a senior citizen. :)

^ You're going to be fine and so will most of us, I believe and have faith in the folks that actually understand, how to handle this crisis, will do just that, you won't lose what is most important. In the end, It's going to be fine .

Shitters are still going broke all over. People need to stop flushing rhings other than toilet paper

I am getting rich

===> "You're going to be fine and so will most of us, I believe and have faith in the folks that actually understand, how to handle this crisis, will do just that, you won't lose what is most important. In the end, It's going to be fine ."

If only empty platitudes were enough for people who live paycheck to paycheck to pay rent, buy groceries and keep the phones and lights on. It would also be nice if hot air was enough to restart the largest economy on the planet once the virus is contained. 😉

Clubber, you will be fine. People still have to eat and the grocery stores and supply warehouses are "essential service" that won't shut down. I also don't see as much hoarding going on anymore as I think people are starting to realize that the food isn't going to run out.

^ Par for the course RickiBoi just wants to troll and look for drama, , looks like you're just a sore disgruntled broke ass, go after Gov. DeSantis, and the the guy he takes his cues from, Donald Trump, both of whom you voted for and supported.

25, apparently you're twisted thinking isn't limited to economic issues. For some reason when someone disagrees with you in an on-topic post it is trolling, but when you blunder randomly into some thread with some off-topic insult it is not.

Btw, did you see the news this morning that 6.6 million people filed for unemployment last week? Add last week's number and that's a quick 10 million and this is just the beginning. Gig workers are completely without income, commercial tenants do not want to pay rent (which trickles up to banks and investment funds), real estate values are going to plummet...eventually the rippling fallout is going to make 08-09 look like a walk in the park. Trump's words that "the cure cannot be worse than the disease" may come back to haunt us.

^ See you just troll my every statement, you don’t care really what happens, you just try to create drama cause your bored
RickiBoi go read a book or play in traffic, stop trolling me you make yourself look thirsty.

Funny shit here 96% of the country is on shutdown yet RickiBoi seems to think I have some sort of control over all this, notice how he harasses me every day I obviously own that empty space between his ears 👂

25, you probably have a year's worth of toilet paper hoarded in a closet too 'cause that's the type of guy you are. Sadly you don't care about anything or anybody but yourself. Same goes for anyone else who thinks that shutting down the economy for months is a good idea.

Only have about 6 months worth, but I don’t use as much as you judging by the amount of shit that you shoot off here. 😀

" Same goes for anyone else who thinks that shutting down the economy for months is a good idea."

I don't think this is sustainable for months -- 6.6 million new unemployment claims isn't sustainable either. The (very necessary and appropriate) lockdown should be a radical measure that is used as a temporary measure as we drive towards data-driven decisions around re-opening. By now, I was hoping we'd have widespread testing in place, a ton of data from that testing, private industry focused on safety equipment for healthcare providers (where relevant), etc.

Wealthy people, especially Deocrats, don't care that blue collar workers lose their jobs. Its all about them; just look at the actions of New Yorkers. Watching family members lose their jobs and hopes for the future is far more concerning to me than anything else.

@Sub: Most areas have been dealing with some form of this for 3 weeks now and it's highly unlikely that this will all be over by the end of April. By then we will already have endured stunning economic damage.

And it is already starting, with the U.S. entering its deepest recession on record: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-econom…

You act like "stunning economic damage" was avoidable based on different policies or actions taken. The reality is no matter what the US does now or did in the last couple of weeks could avoid a recession or even a depression, never mind hundreds of thousands of deaths. So just get over whatever you think the US should be doing differently now as that ship has long sailed.

Can you imagine the level of panic if there was no lockdown, scores of thousands dead, hospitals overrun and overflowing along with commensurate fewer healthcare workers as they run out of protective masks, etc., due to the far higher and sooner peak? It was never going to be the case that, without a lockdown, things would be better -- they'd be far worse. But leadership does need to be driving hard and setting targets to end this, rather than just progressively reacting.

Well, basically the country/world is under attack by an invisible enemy of which you can only see the effects long after the damage has been planted. So a "minimum" level of carnage (health and economic) is INEVITABLE. The quicker we DEFEAT this enemy, the less carnage will be done. Unfortunately, the quickest if done PERFECTLY is months. Plural as in at least two. But somehow, there are still people that think that by just reopening the economy and "letting" people go back to work (as if anyone would willingly go back to work in these conditions, even with severe economic needs) will resolve the crisis quicker and with less carnage.

Sub, I disagree that a full scale lockdown was necessary. This thing is going to grow either way. The question becomes whether it could be managed with more targeted measures, such as those previously instituted here in FL.

The differences between limiting big gatherings and closing entertainment/dining venues, vs. a total SIP order, is massive. A full blown SIP order pretty much shuts everything down, including hotels, almost all restaurants and virtually every other business other than grocery stores and certain emergency services. Even many of the businesses that could in theory stay open do not because they have no customers, including a lot of takeout restaurants.

Sure the virus has been spreading in Florida like elsewhere, but slowly and arithmetically rather than exponentially. I seriously question whether the economic havoc and hardship that this will cause is worth the health benefits to a number of states, outside of the incredibly population dense area around NYC.

Walgreen pharmacy called your prescription is ready
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/image…

Thanks for that wonderful contribution 25. ;)

I agree with dugan on this. The insanely difficult question is how many lives are we really saving by doing all of this?

If only 10 to 20% of people placed on a ventilator survive, what is the true number of lives that will be saved by creating 30% unemployment?

Hell yes, social distancing, require test to travel, everyone wear masks, spray everything and everyone down all of it....but a complete shutdown of the economy...I don't know.

There is a lot of ground in-between murdering the economy and things as usual. There needs to be a compromise. If no one gets the idea that irreparable damage to the economy means the next time this happens the death toll is beyond calculation they are fooling themselves.

Unemployment is inevitable. Who's going to "buy stuff " (besides online and groceries) and get services (besides remote or online) done in a time like this? Should i reacquaint you with Maslow's hierarchy? No one cares about the numerous superfluous (non essential) products and services that make the bulk of GDP when their health is on the line. Even if you lift all bans and restrictions, "business" is going to halt. Take strip clubs for instance. If someone like me wouldn't go, do you really think any "regular" PLs are going? How many strippers are going to keep working? Even if they were willing, there are no customers. There was a strip club somewhat near me that tried to stay open after all bars and restaurants were mandated to close. They couldn't stay open even if they wanted to and had every green light. This was two weeks ago. Things have gotten much worse then and will continue to get much worse even with social distancing.

How does anyone in their right mind think things could continue to run and make money at even half the usual "sales" besides "essential" (lower in Maslow's hierarchy) businesses? How are employers going to keep paying workers (even only half of them) if there is no income coming in? How much longer do you think that can go on, never mind all the sick and dying? Employers are going to have to lay off everybody eventually when the situation becomes much worse. You don't need to shut down the economy to "murder" it. Things cannot go on as usual and a full blown reopening won't improve the economic situation much. How could a half-way reopening "save" the economy?

I see a lot of people criticizing the current measures, but i don't see a SINGLE different solution being offered.

Slowly and arithmethically, rather than exponentially? Let's see... 14 days ago, Florida had 432 cases and 9 deaths reportedly. Now they have 7,773 reported cases and 101 deaths. That was yesterday's data. Less than 24 hours later, the number of cases are expected to go up over 1,000 and the deaths over 40. Increases of over 15% and 40% respectively in less than 24 hours. How's that arithmetic working out?