Trump Question

In order to run for President as Republican he would need to be nominated at their convention. He is taking the nomination for granted and simply isn't smart, nor honest enough to understand he is not getting it. He can run as an Independent. That would give the left the White House, just like he gave them the Senate. He won't run. The RNC is paying his legal bills. Once he becomes a candidate they cannot and he pays them.

^^^ He is taking the nomination for granted and simply isn't smart, nor honest enough to understand he is not getting it."

The last time someone made a statement like that, he won the nomination and the presidency.

No idea if he can actually win the presidency again but he would easily get the nomination. And it wouldn't even be close.

For anyone to run as a party's candidate, s/he would first have to campaign in the primaries where individual states vote for their preferred candidate in only one party. Whoever wins the most nominees from all states is then nominated at the party's convention. I believe he is not taking it for granted, otherwise he would not be so pissed at other possible candidates. Anyone who does not win a party nomination can run as an independent, and there are more than just the big two parties. There is always a danger that an independent like Trump could split the Republican vote. Our presidential elections are won by plurality, not majority. Even worse for 2024, is if that horrible cunt Liz Cheney runs and drags off additional republican votes.

There are two ways for the democrat party candidate to win in 2024
1) Fracture the Republican vote
2) Election fraud

^ There are a few who would disagree with that starting with Ron DeSantis
I also agree with skibum’s assessment of the Republican party’s 2024 selections.

That miserable bitch Cheney, anyone dumb enough to waste a vote on her should move to PA and vote for Fetterman the retard.

Trump will make some noise in 2024, but the established crooks in DC will block him from actually running. The career politicians will not allow an outsider back in the White House, since they get exposed as the thieves they really are. Both sides of the aisle is full of leeches attached to the US taxpayer. We need term limits & all incumbents voted out, no matter their party.

Trump won because Clinton was an unpopular Democrat candidate. Low voters turnout by Democrats. Plus a few swing votes because he was an establishment outsider. Are why he won. Not because of his policies. He later appealed to the far right loony fringe. People like the bigots and right wing conspiracy nuts on here.

Trump will milk it as long as possible as long as he continues to financially benefit.

The one person no one likes is the suicidal trick named Icee.

To run as a Republican, Trump would have to win the Republican Party's nomination. He could do that easily because the Republican Party has been taken over by conspiracy theorists, Q-Anon wackos, insurrectionists, and advocates of violence. He could run as an independent, but independent candidates never win American elections.

Failed politicians have found financial incentives through denying elections in order to keep their name somewhat relevant. Trump has exploited this most notably, but after next week you will see many others follow suit. Kari Lake in Arizona will be another trump endorsed election denier. It’s sad but true. As a Republican I felt I had to vote against anybody who Trump endorsed. That guy fell far from grace to disgrace after Jan 6th, and can’t recover. He’s fired!

“Failed politicians have found financial incentives through denying elections in order to keep their name somewhat relevant.”

Yeah, like Hillary Clinton claiming Trump was an illegitimate president installed by Putin. Or Stacey Abrams denying that Kemp was the rightfully elected governor of Georgia.

I hope another strong Republican is found to run for president in this next election cycle.

FYI london guy… you really should’ve posted this in the political discussion forum.

My apologies, I didn’t know there was a separate forum.

Question:

Does it really matter whether it’s posted in the Front Room or the Political Forum?

All the forums come across on my feed and I don’t see a way to block (or sort) other forums such as Political or TJ

that’s true.

but founder did create the political forum.

I don't believe that Trump will run as an Independent if he loses the Republican primary. As much as he loves the spotlight, he's not so stupid that he doesn't understand that all it would do is split the Republican vote and ensure a Dem victory. Given his ongoing legal issues, a Dem victory does him no good. If anything, if he loses in the primaries, I expect that he will quietly negotiate for a Presidential pardon in exchange for throwing his support behind the front runner.

Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024. And he will win the election easily. Bank on it.

I think he’s a better choice at this point.

Rick, you’re ascribing rational and logical thought to Trump. If he makes a logical decision, it’s coincidence. He does what he thinks is best for himself, with a failure to see long term. That more than anything else is his brand. As a Trump hating republican, I’d certainly love to see him lose the primary and then scream that the election was rigged. 🍿

I think Trump is the only R that the D’s can defeat. Very similarly to how Hillary was the only candidate in 2016 that the R’s could beat. He allows the other guy’s platform to be “I’m not Trump”.

Trump is smart enough to realize if he runs and loses his legacy is severely tarnished. He can opt out instead and play kingmaker. R’s do have a legit plan B, the D’s are in a mess because no one is there.

I think after midterms many D’s break rank and guys like Gavin Newsome begin jockeying for position

Throughout 2021 and early 2022 Trump was usually ahead in Republican/Conservative straw-polls with DeSantis running 2nd by a good-margin - but DeSantis has been on fire so he could be currently the Republican frontrunner - then again it seems most candidates Trump endorces win their primary which one would assume means Trump is still seem very favorably with many Republican voters.

Most people think he'll run (and likely why the Dems continue to go after him) - but as has been mentioned good-chance he gets kneecapped by the swamp - also; IDK if he and DeSantis want to go head-to-head so part-of-me thinks they may work something out and one may not run - and there can be other variables.

"Does it really matter whether it’s posted in the Front Room or the Political Forum?"

Yes, because then some of us can filter out the entire thing during election time. Or pandemic time. Or attempting to peacefully overrun the US Capitol time. A while back founder asked if the peanut gallery wanted to keep separate forums, and nearly everyone around at the time agreed with keeping a separate forum for politics.

Yeah, hopefully the new site will allow us to hide forums.

Americans are both weak and strong. They don't engage with politics until they're left with two bad choices, and then impulsively pick one of them. The chance we have is that most Americans are disinclined to just sit on their asses. They'll do their best to go out and work, even as the dollars they are working for are worth less and less. That may prevent the economy from being a total shitstorm by 2024, and then the Dems will win. Hopefully at some point Republicans will sober up, see they've got to go with people like Kemp, Youngkin, and even DeSantis, if they want to have a chance. And hopefully at some point we'll get some federal laws, with broad support, that enhance both the ease and security of voting.

“hopefully the new site will allow us to hide forums”

I agree with that. I was playing around and I guess you can filter out the unwanted ones, but hiding would be a nice option

According to the betting markets at this point, Trump has a better chance of being a candidate in 2024 than Biden has. (You can buy a dollar's worth of Trump for 42 cants. Biden as candidate is selling for 30 cents on the dollar.)

Rick - I'd love to be able to agree with you. But you know as well as I do that if Trump loses in the Republican Primary to say Desantis, he will claim the primary was stolen from him, the same as he did the 2020 election, will never concede nor endorse the winner and will basically act as a political suicide bomber to ensure that Desantis or whomoever is the nominee loses and guarantee another 4 years of a Democrat in the White House.

If Trump says he isn't running in 2024, he can't grift.

That said, if he doesn't officially declare before the end of 2022, the odds are much lower he's going to make a serious run. He does NOT want to lose.

If it's Trump Biden again then the real race is between their vps....

"... If Trump says he isn't running in 2024, he can't grift ... "

Trump would likely have a higher-net-worth if he would've never gotten into politics - the same cannot be said for career-grifter Biden.

I believe it's the case that, as far as real estate holdings go, Trump has made generally dumb moves out of the boringly profitable apartment complexes his dad bought, into volatile stuff like hotels/resorts/casinos. (Bad stuff to be in during a pandemic.) I think is his biggest asset is the Trump brand, which he can license for a pretty penny. Hard to see how being President could hurt the value of his brand.

Fuck Trump already. He did a fine con job on elderly rubes in this country, but it's time for him to step aside for DeSantis

Trump has never won a majority of the popular vote each time he's run before. What makes him think the third time would be the charm? His popularity rating is lower than it's ever been.

^ Not according to him
LOL

Personal opinion... Trump will tease running until the very last minute, all the while negotiating with the Republican Party (and individual Republican candidates) what he wants in exchange for not running.

But he ultimately won't run. I could be wrong, but I don't believe he wants the constraints and the added scrutiny of being President when he can leverage being a former President at a fraction of the effort.

I also think that the Republican Party is done with the turmoil that comes with Trump as President. No one wants to have their name in the credits for "January 6 II: Electric Boogaloo".

Trump has every intention of running. It would be a 2 man race between him and DeSantis.

In Wisconsin, it appears that Republicans will win a veto proof majority in the legislature. The Democrat Governor has vetoed 140 bills from the Republican legislature over the last 4 years. Republicans have announced they will reintroduce all these bills and, even if the Democrat Governor stays in office ( unlikely. ), he won’t be able to stop them.

Depending on what happens on Tuesday, then in 2024, something similar could happen on a national level. the power may shift to Congress, making who wins the Presidency far less important.

@mark, 2022 is actually a very Dem-friendly Senate map.

In 2024, the Dems will defend 23 vs the GOP's 10. Several of those Dems (Tester in MT and Manchin in WV) are running in deep red states.

It's an outside shot in this polarized age, but strong GOP 2022 and 2024 could set up a filibuster-proof majority for President DeSantis.

@Londonguy

I will play along and comment on your discussion.

Everyone in the world knows the undeniable reality that economic elites run the show in the United States, but many inside the USA live in denial.

The economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have but absolute control on U.S. government policy, while average citizens have little to no independent influence

America is not a Democracy, but an Oligarchy of wealthy individuals, an undeniable reality.

So it Doesn’t Mater what happens with Trump, because it’s never been about left vs right or Democrats vs Republicans, or the North vs the South, etc etc etc.

“More like 0.1% of regular ass humans (the oligarchs, the so called founding fathers, the politicians, the religious leaders, the puppet presidents, the rich and powerful, etc etc) tricking the rest of us into fighting among ourselves while they rob us blind.”

~ SanchoRG, Texas
~ Joined Aug, 2017 Last Seen Nov, 2021

This thread is a perfect example.

You are welcome.

DeSantis is just another Trump and wouldn't even beat biden on a national level. He doesn't resonate with America

After all the Dems have done, I doubt they would just sit back and allow the Republicans to have a filibuster-proof majority (at the national-level) - they learned their lesson in 2016 when they just sat back and assumed (like most people) that Trump would never get elected - they'll pull w/e shit they need to pull to not allow a Republican filibuster-proof majority (whether it's legal or not; e.g. Trump Russian hoax plus multiple hoax impeachments; etc) - having said this it would be IMO very-difficult for one party to have that kinda majority these days given how far apart the parties and corresponding electorate is - not saying it would never happen; but pretty-unlikely in part given what the Dem-party has shown they are willing to do.

Per the article-below; the last filibuster-proof majority was in 1979 when the Dems had 62 Senate-seats:

https://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20…

@Papi, the Dems had a filibuster-proof majority for a bit after Obama's election.

GOP could have one in 24. Need to be prepared for all the dirty tricks in the books for as long as it lasts.

I can certainly understand being anti-Dem. I am myself, I'm just more anti-Republican. But I just don't see how anyone can still be actually pro-Republican. Unless they have zero long-term memory, or just generally zero brain function. The Republicans participated in the federal shutdown standoff, which downgraded the US government credit rating, saying it was necessary to reduce the budget deficit. Then they INCREASED the budget deficit, before COVID even happened. I mean, really, if you have a death wish, just hire blah to stab you. You don't have to take the whole country with you.

@ilb, this election is a referendum on the Biden agenda. Red light or green light. Republicans won't have a filibuster proof majority nor the executive.

^ Spin. There are elements of a referendum and elements on the future path of the country.

But you are correct a divided government will be the result. And Republicans will be able to breathe a sigh of relief that they stopped the imaginary monster.

^ Nope. Not when a vote for the Democrats is a vote to let the Biden agenda--the endless green subsidizing, student loan debt transferring to the American people, extra bailing-out Biden agenda--proceed two more years.

The "inflation reduction act" (never typed without quotes) was a mini version of Build Back Better, which is itself a mini version of the Green New Deal. Want more of that? Want more releases from the SPR and less energy exploration in America? Vote Democrat. It's a straight line. We vote for that, we get it.

Speaking of imaginary monsters, I'm hearing a lot of crap about the "end of democracy if you don't vote for us." I'm suffocating on the irony. That an ex-president with no power and little platform is going to rise from the dead, like a zombie, and consume America.

Right now, the main thing a Republican Congress can do is _stop_ the Biden agenda. And that's an awesome idea.

Trump won both times he ran. He'll win again. The anti-Americans, though, will do ANYTHING to stop him, because he intends to actually help this country that leftists hate.

Trump line blah blah blah...triggerd haters blah blah blah. Trumpie sells $$$ which willing chumps ship it. The guy has hustle and doesn't care how he gets it and is totally amoral.

Soo...yea he says he is going to run to ship $$$. This is his last hurrah

>Want more of that?

No need for more right now. We now have the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law. It's a great piece of legislation including the following:

- controls costs for drugs covered under Medicare (addresses inflation)
- progressive taxation
- deficit reduction
- tax credits for renewable energy
- re-staff the IRS properly after being gutted by Trump

If I thought any of these were "eh" I'd say so. But they're all good.

^ Speaking of spin.

Outside research shows no significant impact on inflation. Drug cost controls are already resulting in clinical trials not being performed and won't have a significant impact on overall drug spending. Look at pharma stocks since then.

Love how you say tax credits and deficit reduction in the same sentence. And look forward to your tone after you get audited. There aren't enough rich people to go after.

How's inflation looking these days anyways? Oops.

....blah blah blah

^ Damn, uptightcitizen, you got me with those sound facts and logic. Where can I donate $10,000 to the Biden 2024 campaign?

how said "Trump won both times he ran."

Yeah... that's half true.

Binary total fail losers see 2 sides to any outcome.

>Look at pharma stocks since then.

Merck is at an all-time high. Oops

Those poor billionaires and mega corporations... trust me they'll be fine. But if you'd rather scrap cost controls on drugs that benefit millions of Americans, many on fixed incomes, in favor of protecting the profits of the top 0.1%, go ahead. It will be an uphill battle repealing that one.

Trumpie loves you ❤️

I wonder if Biden's new gig-worker-eating IRS will cause a shift to more sugar dating. The "sugar" is arguably a gift.

I've wondered sometimes if I should file a gift tax return (below the per-recipient deductable amount) for a few of my longer-term OTC favs. So they could buy a car or something, without potentially getting mar-a-lagoed by federal agents. Anyone ever done that?

"Merck is at an all-time high. Oops"

You're showing an impressive ability not to get it. If that bill reduced drug spend, pharma stocks would have dived, not hit all time highs. Especially with Merck's Keytruda at the top of the list. Thanks for making my point.

When bills have actually cut spending, like PAMA for labs, their stocks dove 20% in a day.

In fact, by repealing the Trump rebate law, the "inflation reduction act" takes those small savings and funnels them right to PBMs and insurers. Bra fucking vo.

This is what I study for a living. Come back better prepared than democratic talking points

Ummm...how is this divisive since its simply law. You are a fucktard

^ You are an ignorant troll. Shut up when the adults are talking.

>Thanks for making my point.

Your point was, and is, incoherent.

The IRA has been advertised and is expected to provide financial benefits to millions of seniors who have difficulty affording their medications. Do you refute this or not? Don't deflect to some other tangential point, just answer the question.

Trump was the greatest president we've ever had. Our government is corrupt to the core. He can easily get the nomination if he wants it. However our electoral system is broke and they'll just steal the election from him.

Just imagine how completely smooth brained you have to be to donate to a political campaign of any kind. Unless you’re trying to buy legislation then it’s just how business is done here. But a regular hoe contributing money to a campaign? Smh

So far other than cause inflation to go berserk the lie called the IRA has been an abysmal failure. Assholes like Biden can put a price cap on anything. In fact, Carter put a price cap on gas. No one sold it at that price.......oops.

Yesterday Trump started referring to Desantis as “Ron Desanctimonious”. He’s clearly preparing to run again whether anyone wants him to or not. As someone who wants to see Biden lose in 2024 I’d like nothing more than for Trump to fade into the background as former Presidents traditionally did and get out of the way. But that’s unfortunately not going to happen.

Hopefully Trump gets indicted and that's the end of the filthy rat.

"Your point was, and is, incoherent."

If a company's revenues are expected to decrease, their stock falls. That did not happen. We've seen stock price dives happen in direct response to government regulations. Hence the lab industry precedent that I mentioned.

Can you understand how outside news affects a stock price?

You yourself pointed out Merck's share price hit a record--if the "inflation reduction act" was expected to decrease their revenues, this would not have happened.

If you can't comprehend this, I give up, since I can't reduce it to grunts.

"The IRA has been advertised and is expected to provide financial benefits to millions of seniors who have difficulty affording their medications. Do you refute this or not? Don't deflect to some other tangential point, just answer the question."

It provides subsidies for seniors. Subsidies cost money. This is guaranteed spending. Drug price "negotiation" (which is actually price fixing) will decrease spending by not even 3%. There's your "savings," not enough to even be a speedbump in their stock prices.

I could get into where the price of insulin comes from (not pharma, but PBMs and insurers), but when presented info contrary to White House sound bites, you're sticking your fingers in your ears and going "lalalaIcanthearyou"

DeSantis is very-popular with GOP-voters - Trump going after-him I think will backfire on Trump - DeSantis also seems very-polished as a politician and it would be hard to land punches on him.

DeSantis has been working quietly to position for a Presidential run. He has a war chest of $200 million, has linked up with several Wall Street billionaire backer, held private meeting with anti-Trumpers like Paul Ryan, endorsed anti-Trump candidates.

It’s no wonder Trump put a shot across the bow. He’s letting Desantis know he can turn his 70 million followers against Desantis if he runs in 2024. That would permanently end his Presidential prospects.

If he tries to run in 2022, it will be a mistake ( unless Trump dies, shows signs of age, etc ). The smart move would be to focus on Florida for his full term ( like he promised ) then run in 2028.

Non retarded People don't fan boy corporations. They're smart enough to vote for their interests and based on their problems

Papi - the problem is that a significant portion of Trump's voters are exactly that, TRUMP voters, not Republican voters. Some of them will not vote for any candidate other than Trump. Even more of them will not vote for any candidate that Trump tells them not to vote for. This is a problem. A very, very large problem.

Tetra thank you for your last post. I certainly do understand how company revenues, profits, news and regulations can impact stock prices (SMH LOL).

You were noting that some clinical trials were being cancelled, which implies some belt-tightening by big pharma. When you pointed to the stock price, it seemed logical that you were implying an unfavorable impact of IRA on pharma, which would align with big pharma CEOs having been against the bill. This has certainly been written about.

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/6050…

This article states: "Overall, according to UBS estimates, the impact equates to less than 3% of global biopharma industry earnings over a 10-year time frame."

So I think we agree the IRA won't have a major impact on big pharma profits.

However, that 3% could be huge for helping subsidize drug costs for American seniors. While you acknowledged the benefit to seniors, you seem to be largely deflecting by wading into the sausage making. For average Americans it's not complicated, this component of the IRA is highly welcome news.

The canceled trials weren't related to profits. They're related to exemptions if an orphan drug is approved for one indication but not two. The devil is in the details.

If it doesn't materially reduce revenues, it isn't going to materially save the consumer dollars. The difference has to be made up by the government, i.e spending which means inflation.

As a matter of fact, the rebate rule rewards PBMs and insurers who literally add nothing to the process. Both parties need to look at removing their influence in the system.

Saving 3% on drugs for seniors would be great if seniors weren't paying way more than 3% more for everything else they need to survive.
55

In general, Trump is very dumb. He mostly squandered his dad's fortune, but in a splashy way that made him a hero of the stupid. That led to a shitload of money from branding. It also lead to a reality TV gig that made him a bigger hero of the stupid, and thus a bigger shitload of branding money. But his political maneuvers are so good it has to be more than just dumb luck. Trump can grab 'em by the pussy, be tight with freaky Roger Stone, but still be popular with the tens of millions who think you best love God by being a hateful prude. DeSantis decided he had to fuck up Disney to win over the hateful prudes. That is causing collateral damage to a lot of otherwise-inclined-to-be-Republican people in Orlando and elsewhere. Trump capitalized on DeSanits's self-fuck-over perfectly by calling him DeSanctimonious. I think maybe it's showing Trump is on the autistic spectrum (scattered skills). Maybe the skill is mostly just in seeing what people like Bannon, Cohn, and Stone can do for him.

Ilb said "I think maybe it's showing Trump is on the autistic spectrum (scattered skills)."

Don't assign a clinical diagnosis to something that can be more easily explained by being a giant asshole. It's an insult to those who are actually autistic.* Trump said worse things about Tex Cruz (and his wife) and Cruz happily forgot it all to stay on the good side of Trump's voting base. Trump can and likely does expect DeSantis to behave exactly the same way.

====
* Thank God a certain someone appears to be AWOL or else mentioning the "A" word would earn about 800 posts over the course of a year or two.

Trump will announce his 2024 candidacy tomorrow night in Ohio.

^ That is fantastic

It's far more likely that Trump will threaten to announce a 2024 candidacy... but not actually declare his candidacy.

Teasing his candidacy is better for "ratings," even if it does inject turmoil into the Republican Party. It's also a better negotiating position for him to extract favors from the GOP.

>Saving 3% on drugs for seniors would be great if seniors weren't paying way more than 3% more for everything else they need to survive.

@mike710 - No the 3% is the impact on big pharma companies. The impact on seniors will potentially be far greater, due to provisions such as the $2000 cap on out-of-pocket expenses. For example, some seniors are paying more than 4K out-of-pocket a year on certain drugs. With the 2K cap that's a savings of 2K or 100%.

Back in 2016 many said Trump was running just to get publicity - and many of these same-people didn't take him seriously nor gave him a shot-in-hell to win the primary let alone the Presidency

Gun to my head I'd vote Trump over Biden or Harris, but I'll keep making protest votes in this sapphire blue state.

I'd love Trump to disappear but know it won't happen except for health reasons.

I, too, like to entertain the idea of voting for a 76 year old man who would be 78 at election time and 82 after 4 years. Seems like a solid plan for this country.

There's a lot of Republicans running in 2022 who've make it clear they want to turn our flawed democracy into a complete sham of a democracy. I contributed money against them, in tight races where it may make a difference.

Can't make an issue of Tump's age against Biden.

If the Democrats want to nominate someone who'll be over 75, they should nominate Dolly Parton. She embodies the good side of traditional rural America. That would appeal to conservatives. Liberals would trust her to work for basic opportunities for everyone, and look out for the most vulnerable. But she wouldn't indulge in the class warfare stuff. Too smart and strong willed to get "handled" by insiders. I think she could pull together a team of insiders who respected her and advised her well as to how to carry out her mandate. Private person, she wouldn't want the job, but might accept it out of a sense of duty.

“There's a lot of Republicans running in 2022 who've make it clear they want to turn our flawed democracy into a complete sham of a democracy.”

Translation: Republicans want to require voter ID.

I mean for me it's startling how easy is to vote. All they ask me is if I am registered already and then my name and my address then they print out my ballot and I fill it out and then put in the scanning machine. What is to stop me from voting for other people? It's very concerning. I have no problem making this as easy as possible but let's just make sure this person is this person, it's not much to ask but some act like that some crazy form voter suppression.

“Can't make an issue of Tump's age against Biden“
Sure but you can when it comes to trump campaign desantis

Against

“If the Democrats want to nominate someone who'll be over 75, they should nominate Dolly Parton”

Electing Dolly Parton to the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame just further shows what a sham organization it is.

Sure, she is a very accomplished singer, songwriter, author, actress, business woman. And has h If the Democrats want to nominate someone who'll be over 75, they should nominate Dolly Parton. She e ad hits of many genres - country, gospel, country-pop, bluegrass

She’s funny and a super talented multi instrumentalist - but she ain’t Rock & Roll