Well, people like myself and @FTS have been saying the market is overvalued for quite a while. Should I dig out some of my earlier posts? Take a look at the CAPE to see how overvalued the market is. If it wasn't coronavirus it would be something else. I plan to start buying again if it falls, say, another 20%.
Social media has increased volatility. I remember when it crashed last winter and everyone was calling for end days. It bounced back in less than a month and everyone forgot. There's a collection of people just smiling and investing wisely among the new normal of histeria.
The sooner the Ponzi Stock Market sinks the better.
No one who has money in it is innocent. But when it crashes, there will be innocent people who will lose their jobs and businesses. So the sooner it happens, the less innocent people hurt.
The popularization of financial market speculation is one of the horrors of the Neo-Liberal Era, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and forward to the climax of Trump.
People need to be putting their money into their own affairs, investing in themselves and further developing their talents and abilities.
So as there eventually has to be a big crash, BRING IT ON!
For those of you like @Meathead who don't understand the issue, the Fed printed $4.5T (quantitative easing) to buy treasuries and MBS during the last recession. That balance sheet was never unwound. Trump also badgered the present Fed into keeping interests rates very low. So the Fed doesn't have the same arsenal of monetary tricks available.
For those of you like Randumbmember who don’t understand paying women for you to be a trick, while having an Asian wife at home, keep in mind his STEM degree thinks it qualifies him as a CDC Director when in fact all he does for hours a day is filter through news headlines in between checking out his Seeking Arrangement profile or poring over AMP reviews. Sure, whatever Randumb!
I really hate to say this. But Random is actually right. The market was a little over valued. Corona is just the thing that has triggered it. Not sure I would go try to "catch the falling knife" just yet. But there will be a time to start buying again. I'm not selling anything, but I'm not going to double up just yet.
Seems very-hard if not impossible to know the best time to get out or get in - I recall reading an article a few years back where they had analyzed a large data-set of folks that had gotten out and then back in during a down-turn (dot-com, etc), and the study's conclusion was that most folks that got out during the downturns then got back in at some point, on avg it took them longer to recoup their losses vs those that rode it out.
i.e. seems hard to know when it's a good time to buy back in - one would think that the worse of the Corona-Virus is yet to come and perhaps conclude that the market will fall even further - I've also read of many people that got out halfway trough 2019 fearing a big correction and missed-out on a nice return for that 2nd-half of 2019.
I guess for someone like myself that is not a sophisticated investor and investing for the long-term, I guess I'll keep buying periodically as I usually do once I get out of a little hole I'm in by late-March.
It will take time for the Asian Supply Chain to recover. After the Chinese Factories ramp back up, there are not enough Freightliners to deliver the needed Goods to the US. There are not enough Cranes at the California Ports to unload increased cargo from the Freightliners. There are not enough Trucks to deliver the needed Raw Material and Goods to the US Factories and Warehouses. This will be a minimum 3 month event.
There is no way to know. Anything you think you know is totally after the fact, because the Pension, Hedge, and Retirement fund managers for the most part control the prices. And they already know.
If you or I could know that tomorrow the price of something would be higher, or lower, then it would all ready be so today.
It is just a head trip people get from gambling, and a political issue of using the federal gov'ts borrowing power to keep the Ponzi Scheme going.
The only thing to do is to get OUT OUT OUT FOREVER. And then put your own money into your own affairs.
Elon Musk put a maximum of $2k into his first company, then in a few years he cleared $22Meg. That is a 10,000 x return, or a 1,000,000 percent if that helps make it clearer.
And even when a venture fails, it usually is not total. Only Venture Funded things have a high failure rate. Mom and Pop rarely fails.
And you still get the benefit of building up a team for more ventures.
The Stock Market is a head trip, targetting people who have more dollars than sense, and mostly cause of the Reagan Tax Cuts.
Timing the market is a game for chumps. No one can consistently pick tops and bottoms. As someone said, there’s a name for people who buy at the bottom. They are called liars.
American companies are scrambling to find alternatives to their Chinese suppliers. If they are successful, it’s not going to be a temporary solution. They now realize that putting all their eggs in one country’s basket is a mistake. Much of the work is not going to return to China.
The best way to play this is find a good ETF targeting India.
I took profits on some positions and will buy back in once things stabilize. If you have large quantities of cash laying around, you will be in a good position once the coronavirus has run its course and fears have subsided. The fact is people are still getting paid and have to put their money somewhere. Getting annual dividends of 3-10% by owning stocks of solid companies outweighs making 0.06% interest at a bank or making 2% APY on a CD.
@pinksugardoll. I own mostly ticker symbol SPY which is a composite of the S&P 500, the 500 most valuable American companies. I'd only put in money you're ok with not needing for five years because its impossible to say how long recovery will take.
@PinkSugarDoll. Your question makes it clear that you should not be buying individual stocks. That’s not meant as any kind of insult.
If you are serious then you should buy a mutual fund such as Vanguard Total Market Index Fund; symbol VTSAX or something similar. Vanguard funds are low fee and generally do well and you won't need to set up a brokerage account and worry about all the expenses that go with that (just give them a call). If you are capable of putting money in that you won’t need and won’t take out for the mid-term (5+ years) or better yet for the longer term, then invest regularly and you should do well (as always YMMV).
Good on you for looking after yourself and thinking about the future.
PSD is such a novice and naive, like most people are, about investing. The novice and naive think that somebody out there can read the tea leaves and look into a crystal ball to predict which investment will make them money. Now think real hard about that concept PSD, if somebody had that ability why would they share it with anyone else? If anybody had that ability they would borrow money, leverage themselves to the hilt and place their investments for their own fortunes. They certainly wouldn’t water down their investment acumen by telling anyone else about it!
People are so naive, they’re hoping somebody will give them a tip so they can run to the bank laughing. That’s what overactive imanginations will do for you, and a desperate mindset.
It is actually a Fund - but you can buy and sell just like stock like IBM. (in etrade account)
I'm buying 50 shares for every $5 drop and have cash to buy till it drops to $100.
I don't think it will get down to $100, but $125 is possible.
Then sit back for 2 years and look for 30-40% return. Plus dividend every 3 months (~ 50 cents/share)
Also if someone had $10,000 that could be put on a high risk investment
It would be IWM's Jan 2021 Call Option.
Buy 10 calls starting tomorrow at $2 ($2000 spent) and 4 or 5 more tranches for every 25 cent drop.
This has a good chance of returning 400-500% - but the risk is your could lose most, if not all of $10000 if the market does not recover in a year.
PSD, don't worry. There are ups and downs of the stock market all the time. We just haven't had a sell off in a while. Money you put in the stock market should be money that you don't need right away. Savings for years in the future. Hold on to what you have. And get ready to put more money in. Don't panic sell now. If this thing does indeed affect the Chinese economy, then it will affect ours. But this problem will pass. And we will keep on trucking along.
Vanguard Funds are fine.
Thanks to all the smash and grab traveling dancers around to pick up quick and fast money from PLs before moving onto the next train station to start the process all over again. Dont you know that you are a shooting star, and all the world will love you just as you are?
^^^^^ And that is the best way to live. Pay your bills off of current income, like ongoing business income. Put your money into your own ventures. Become your own VC.
When the stock market does crash hard. I'll be offering 9mm Mercy, but only while my ammunition supply lasts.
"How would you like to enjoy an intimate french kissing session with some college student from Seoul? If making out with hot young girls is a thing for you, definitely do not miss out Kiss Rooms (or Kiss Bang in Korean) in Seoul."
^^^^ $10k is about 5x what Elon Musk had to start his first company which yielded him $22 Meg, and the set him for starting his current SpaceX and Tesla-Solar City.
You want to put you money into a Ponzi Scheme which only goes up because the federal gov't keeps borrowing money, be my guest you stupid idiot.
The stock market is all speculation. And money is simply a means of exchange for said speculative amounts. It doesn't reflect real wealth or lack of. I think gold and certain antiques are better investments
Yes, RandomMember and I have both commented that the stock market is/has been STUPIDLY OVERVALUED. CAPE ratio, price/sales ratio, price/book ratio, you name it!
Plus.... get this.... most people don't know this.... but the "earnings" that public companies disclose on their statements are based on one accounting standard (a standard that changes based on who's in public office), but there is a completely different set of accounting standards that give a very different picture! If all you looked at were the earnings released to the public, you would think these current stock prices are fair. But if you looked at the NIPA corporate profits series, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A446R… , you would get a COMPLETELY different idea of corporate profitability!
So, not only are stocks overvalued based on a view of history, those valuations use an "earnings" metric that is very optimistic, and, I suspect, very biased and manipulated! Imagine how overvalued these stock prices would appear if these valuation metrics were based on NIPA data!
Despite that, though, the daily RSI of S&P 500 hit a low today, in the morning, and that low was lower than the daily RSI of any other day in the past 20 years, so I said FUCK IT, and I bought a 3x leveraged NASDAQ ETF! What can't continue forever, won't continue forever, and stock markets can't plunge all the way down to zero, with each day lower than the other. Only way that will happen is in the apocalypse. So, given a record low in daily RSI, I figured stocks will bounce back for at least a day or two. Looks like it bounced back up in the second half of today, so hopefully the markets open positive on Monday and I can sell my ETF for a solid 10%+ return.
^^^^ What ever you think you know, that is just rationalization for the current pricing. The fund managers know far more and they are the ones who determine to a large degree the current pricing. So what you know is after they know it and have made their moves. So YOUR INFORMATION IS THUS WORTHLESS!
This isn't over. Wait until more places call for bar/restaurant/events shutting down and then the guidance to go beyond end of March.
The Federal government is advising people to practice social distancing for eight weeks but every city/state is only focusing on the next two weeks. Something will give.
Closed businesses, revenues are hurt, wages are hurt, spending drops - stocks drop lower.
Or tell yourself that the DOW would never dip further!
Sure you can't time the absolute bottom but you can definitely wait for actual signs of recovery. I'm looking forward to picking up a nice townhouse on sale in a year when rates are still sub 50bps and people are hungry to sell.
-------------
I did raise some cash before the virus, but the downturn has been fast, deep, and breathtaking. I've lost more money than I care to think about. I bet you're making money @FTS since you're not afraid to think outside the box.
Overall market PE is about 20 times earnings right now which is still higher than the historical mean (about 16). So you could argue that the market is still slightly overvalued even after the recent collapse. But the decline creates a great buying opportunity for young people (tried to explain that to my SB, but she's not listening). I haven't done any selling whatsoever.
Anyone care to speculate how this will end? Just thinking out loud, it seems to me it ends with either (1) vaccine development which could be 12 to 18 months away or (2) herd-immunity on a time-scale that's impossible to predict. Or maybe we get lucky and the virus subsides because of warm weather or some other unknown feature of the virus (e.g., it has a more virulent strain that kills and flames out quickly). A massive increase in testing would help the market.
On an optimistic note, I'm thinking the market could come roaring back after the virus scare is over and on a much shorter time scale than the last recovery.
My pop used to say as the market gets higher the crashes and recoveries would be much more frequent, unfortunately my pop passed before Trump was elected I don’t think he ever anticipated a leader that mocked expertise in every direction. Until we get some real leadership here this is a ship that is going to be listing heavily to one side or the other.
===> "Stock market has been taking a beat-down and right now I don't have the funds to invest"
In hindsight that might have been a good thing. The market has tanked a lot more since Feb 27 and there is no end in sight. The full economic ramifications of shutting down most of the consumer economy for months are just starting to come into focus. Expect yet another horrible day today.
Wrt your OP: I hope all the fuckers like Pelosi, Schumer, Colbert, Behar, Maher, et al are fucking happy enough to wet their depends. They all wanted a disaster to wreck the economy to tarnish the crown jewel of Trump's presidency and they got it. Now we all pay the price, not them, us.
^ I don't think the voters/Trump-supporters will blame Trump for what's happened w/ the economy - the economy was at an all-time-high and most will blame the pandemic not Trump for the current economic-woes.
We are already reading about existing medications, anti-virals and others, which improve the outcomes for those infected. It’s entirely possible that we could soon discover that a combination of those meds could lower the mortality rate.
Plus, if this flu bug acts like other flu bugs, it will disappear in the Summer and be much weaker when it returns in the Fall.
I don’t think we’ll need to wait 18 months before things improve.
If there's a silver-lightning is that we're pretty-much all in this together - this is not something that is just affecting a part of the population or just a part of the world - so it's all-hands-on-deck and the best-and-the-brightest tackling this.
In my glass-half-empty mind, I see this as a shot-across-the-bow - I worry how much worse it would be if it was something more serious - if this has had this effect, I worry that we're way under- prepared for something more serious - maybe those survivalists are onto to something after all.
The CDC has a long history of failure on Ebola, SARS, and so on. This time around, their instinct was to maintain bureaucratic control rather than fight the virus. It cost us a month of critical time.
I hope, after we get things under control, that we clean house at the CDC.
@RandomMember well, I’m certainly not losing a ton of money in the stock market. I had been selling my stock funds over the last year or so. By January of this year I was only about 15% in stocks. I started selling the remainder as this decline started. I am now 0% in stocks as of several days ago. I also had took large position in bond funds a little over a year ago, after the Fed raised rates a few times and the yield curve inverted. The yield curve never goes extremely inverted, so I knew the only direction short-term bonds was gonna go was UP (in price, down in yield)!
Unfortunately, I also had a somewhat large position in Bitcoin. Fortunately I dollar-cost-average bought my position in November-December last year, when the price was in the 6.5-8k range, so it’s not like I FOMO bought when the price had its recent peak at 10.5k. Still, that was a big sell off that Bitcoin had, so my portfolio lost a decent amount there.
Regarding where this is going.... I’ve heard some very doom & gloom predictions from some very smart people. In particular, Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has a very gloomy outlook. Like.... global depression. And he has a very detailed analysis of how the house of cards is falling. I can’t explain it here, but it doesn’t take much to put it all together considering corporations were indebted at record levels, and there are tons of corporations rated BBB, just one notch above junk grade. Add to that the fact that one of the major buyers of corporate debt is the pension funds. And somehow state taxes is wrapped up in this. But, basically, his description is basically that this is all a house of cards because the Federal Reserve’s QE has been an EXTREME moral hazard. Why not take risk when we have solved all of economics? Quantitative Easing and Modern Monetary Theory can save the day in any failing economy, so don’t worry about bankruptcy! Just borrow tons of money and don’t care about the consequences, the Fed has your back!
Raoul Pal owns Bitcoin. He just tweeted that he has now sold all his bond positions, so now he has only two things in his portfolio: dollars, and Bitcoin.
When are you people going to wake up? How sustainable can Monopoly Money really be? How can you run an advanced economy on fake funny money? Yes, of course, the dollar is universally accepted as payment..... but it’s also so easily manipulated and devalued! And now, our flat broke government is going to somehow support its citizens?! Just listen to Peter Schiff’s show today! He pointed out the obvious.... it’s the people that support the government, not vice versa. Our government has been broke for many years, so how can they send money to everybody?! The answer is simple: because the money has no value. They’re not really sending the people anything of value, which is why they can do it.
But hey...... as long as we can stare into the boob tube at night...........
Congrats on doing a much better than I have, @FTS; I'm not surprised. You may be right about an impending global depression but I choose to live in denial, for now. It would be interesting to talk about QE (why it didn't result in hyperinflation) and what to expect from QT, but this isn't the right time.
We are in a transition from Globalism/Wall Street to Nationalism/Main Street. The disruption from CoVid will accelerate that transition. Our eyes have been opened to how risky it is to rely on China for critical goods like medicine and high tech. The legislative and regulatory environment is changing so that there is an advantage to making things in the US ( far fewer regs, lower taxes, cheaper energy, tariffs). The cost difference between making widgets in China versus a US/Mexico manufacturing hub is now negligible.
As a result, I think we’ll see a rapid recovery in the US once CoVid is under control. As far as Europe and China, I think they are in deep doo doo. So, it may be a global recession but we’ll have an easier time of it here.
At least 3 US Senators ( Burr-R,Loefler-R, and Feinstein-D) have been revealed to have sold millions in stock after they were briefed on CoVid in January, weeks before the severity of the disease in the US was generally known to the public. None of the Senators warned their constituents about what was coming but they protected their own financial status.
^ I saw that too and there’s supposed to be a rule about insiders disclosing stock sales and purchases it would be a good idea to require politicians to adhere to that rule as well. After all our lawmakers are the ultimate insiders.
The insider trading rules have always had a very clear exception for members of Congress. Dozens, maybe hundreds, of Congressmen have become millionaires using inside info. One I recall is a congressman who purchased land using inside knowledge of where a highway was going to be built. He retired from Congress shortly after cashing in his profits. There was nothing illegal about what he did.
^ I’m in agreement with you on this still I find it the height of unmitigated gall that these SOBs are able to profit like that from their office this just highlights the need for rooting out the corruption in Washington that Mr Trump promised but never delivered
According to stock sales disclosures by Senators after a closed door briefing on January 24 about the Coronavirus threat, the following senators sold stocks:
Senator Richard Burr
Senator Kelly Loefner
Senator Dianne Feinstein,
Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Jim Inhofe
It's by Robert Shiller and gives his perspective on the stock market. Some excerpts:
"Predictions for the Coronavirus Stock Market
A Nobel laureate is cautiously positive about the market for the long run but worries about how long that will need to be.
I believe the pandemic’s effect on stock prices today is better understood as a series of emotional responses to unique events. People are trading stocks with their cellphones on their living room couches with the television news blaring about the pandemic. There is widespread foreboding, not just about the economy but about the possibility of grave illness or death in the weeks ahead.
People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may. If you are 60, for example, you should hold 40 percent stocks, under this rule.
But this advice isn’t grounded in any scientific truth about financial markets.
I don’t object to it, however. For psychological reasons, it may be a good idea to follow some rule as long as it doesn’t defy common sense. And the 100 minus your age stock market rule has some virtues: It impels older people to take fewer risks, yet encourages them to take limited action in market downturns, buying just enough to restore the stock balance after market declines. Taking some action may make people feel better.
Let’s hope that the current pandemic does not reach proportions so tragic that will similarly blossom into a narrative that is remembered for decades, with the power of depressing stock prices for a long time. I think there is a risk that could happen but I don’t expect that it will.
On balance, I’d emphasize that the stock market is not as expensive as it was just a month ago. Based on history we would expect to see it to be a reasonable long-term investment, attractive at a time when interest rates are low.
As a practical matter, my advice is to look at your portfolio to make sure that it is not so heavily weighted to stocks that further losses would be unbearable. Otherwise, I’d try not to worry too much about the stock market. Most likely, it will do moderately well in the coming years, even if there is a risk that you will need to be very patient.
I would worry more about keeping one’s family safe from the coronavirus."
Big institutions, the kind that manage state retirement funds, with trading floors...
They're all working from home. I'm sure we've all seen movies of analysts and traders all squished into desks around the floor of some high rise tower, yelling at each other in some large open room.... They aren't there today, for sure, they are working, but from home. All their communications is virtual, and communication with customers is still required to me recorded, so they still have to use company email, IM, phone... (can't just call a customer on a personal cell phone, violates SEC regulations requiring records of the conversation).
So, if this gives you hint's how all their activity and behavior might be different and how I might be able to take advantage, let me know...
I do believe we will come back from this faster than we recovered from both the Great Depression of the 30s and the recent Great Recession, after all we are much richer than we were during both of those events and there is much more that we can do to come back that we weren’t able to do in the past, so let’s take care and do what we need to do to beat this thing then we will be able to get back to business even stronger than we were.
Fed balance sheet rose to $4T under Bernacke and it's now over $6T over a decade later. I guess the fed balance sheet will never be unwound in my lifetime. Bitcoin down today but gold is up. Glad my stock portfolio is up -- but feel sorry for 10,000 families that rushed into San Antonio food bank today:
When the house of carsds called the stock market collapses, smart people will have had their actual physical stock certificates in hand and they will still have value; as toilet paper.
^^ Really? In the scenario that you pointed above, that lends credence to the fact that if true, then those companies are gone, out of business, and commerce has evaporated. No more skiing and no more use of any type of service including attorneys because Armageddon would arrive and everyone is in survival mode like the zombie Apocalypse. I’d say a little extreme on your part, but a simple long term down cycle would be more appropriate, if and that’s a big if, inflation turns to deflation for years and years to come.
After social distancing ends, we’re going to endure massive adjustment in the economy. The supply chain will go through a revolution as work leaves China. Brick and mortar stores will close in even greater numbers. The restaurant industry, representing a large percent of overall employment, will collapse. Travel industry will be on government funded life support. Consumers will cut back on spending.
"Fed balance sheet rose to $4T under Bernacke and it's now over $6T over a decade later. I guess the fed balance sheet will never be unwound in my lifetime. Bitcoin down today but gold is up. Glad my stock portfolio is up -- but feel sorry for 10,000 families that rushed into San Antonio food bank today:"
That's the last thing on my mind, idiot. We live in a country where we just allocated trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus -- yet we have 10,000 people starving and cramming into a food bank. It's a sad state of affairs.
^ So you talk down to minorities and blue collar workers and NOW you act like you care? All of this after you spent two weeks crying about your stocks.... alrighty then...
I used to listen to an investment adviser on the radio out of Dallas where he would often mention that many investors adhere to the mantra of "don't fight the Fed" - I'm not a sophisticated nor highly-educated investor to know what that all entails but he would often mention it
It means there really is no other place to place your money and get a ROR on, unless you place it in equities. Apple and amazon will likely recover nicely due to the amount of cash they have on hand, so using large cap equities is a safer play than even a CD over 5 year time horizon, because that CD may only give you 1.5-2 % annual but the Apple dividend will give that to you plus the growth of the value in its stock, especially over 5 years. There are other company stocks with similar dividend options but you get the gist.
116 comments
No one who has money in it is innocent. But when it crashes, there will be innocent people who will lose their jobs and businesses. So the sooner it happens, the less innocent people hurt.
The popularization of financial market speculation is one of the horrors of the Neo-Liberal Era, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and forward to the climax of Trump.
People need to be putting their money into their own affairs, investing in themselves and further developing their talents and abilities.
So as there eventually has to be a big crash, BRING IT ON!
SJG
Daniel Castro - I'll Play The Blues For You
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioOzsi9a…
Slow Blues/ Blues Ballads 1 - A two hour long compilation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8oaxsHC…
TJ Street
https://tuscl.net/photos/5d699507cd73c
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=1061
The problem is that some of the juiciest names aren't dropping nearly as much as the market as a whole.
Microsoft had been on a tear the last year or so - it has dropped close to 15% in the last week or so
SJG
i.e. seems hard to know when it's a good time to buy back in - one would think that the worse of the Corona-Virus is yet to come and perhaps conclude that the market will fall even further - I've also read of many people that got out halfway trough 2019 fearing a big correction and missed-out on a nice return for that 2nd-half of 2019.
I guess for someone like myself that is not a sophisticated investor and investing for the long-term, I guess I'll keep buying periodically as I usually do once I get out of a little hole I'm in by late-March.
If you or I could know that tomorrow the price of something would be higher, or lower, then it would all ready be so today.
It is just a head trip people get from gambling, and a political issue of using the federal gov'ts borrowing power to keep the Ponzi Scheme going.
The only thing to do is to get OUT OUT OUT FOREVER. And then put your own money into your own affairs.
Elon Musk put a maximum of $2k into his first company, then in a few years he cleared $22Meg. That is a 10,000 x return, or a 1,000,000 percent if that helps make it clearer.
And even when a venture fails, it usually is not total. Only Venture Funded things have a high failure rate. Mom and Pop rarely fails.
And you still get the benefit of building up a team for more ventures.
The Stock Market is a head trip, targetting people who have more dollars than sense, and mostly cause of the Reagan Tax Cuts.
SJG
Daniel Castro - I'll Play The Blues For You
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioOzsi9a…
Slow Blues/ Blues Ballads 1 - A two hour long compilation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8oaxsHC…
TJ Street
https://tuscl.net/photos/5d699507cd73c
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=1061
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=3513
Old thread, valuable info, closed:
OT: Programmable Logic Devices
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=5461…
The best way to play this is find a good ETF targeting India.
" there’s a name for people who buy at the bottom. They are called liars."
Mark94 +20
SJG
Become your own Micro VC. This is what i am doing.
Money in the stock market is money in a federal government led ponzi scheme.
SJG
wait a bit then invest into index funds and etfs.
if you want to gamble then play oom options. have fun.
If you are serious then you should buy a mutual fund such as Vanguard Total Market Index Fund; symbol VTSAX or something similar. Vanguard funds are low fee and generally do well and you won't need to set up a brokerage account and worry about all the expenses that go with that (just give them a call). If you are capable of putting money in that you won’t need and won’t take out for the mid-term (5+ years) or better yet for the longer term, then invest regularly and you should do well (as always YMMV).
Good on you for looking after yourself and thinking about the future.
People are so naive, they’re hoping somebody will give them a tip so they can run to the bank laughing. That’s what overactive imanginations will do for you, and a desperate mindset.
I have already invested in mutual funds with Vanguard.
Enjoy your night, I can’t enjoy mine because I’m over here drowning in my desperation lol.
It is actually a Fund - but you can buy and sell just like stock like IBM. (in etrade account)
I'm buying 50 shares for every $5 drop and have cash to buy till it drops to $100.
I don't think it will get down to $100, but $125 is possible.
Then sit back for 2 years and look for 30-40% return. Plus dividend every 3 months (~ 50 cents/share)
It would be IWM's Jan 2021 Call Option.
Buy 10 calls starting tomorrow at $2 ($2000 spent) and 4 or 5 more tranches for every 25 cent drop.
This has a good chance of returning 400-500% - but the risk is your could lose most, if not all of $10000 if the market does not recover in a year.
Vanguard Funds are fine.
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7064…
@Pink: You're welcome Pink. And again, you're welcome. 😃
When the stock market does crash hard. I'll be offering 9mm Mercy, but only while my ammunition supply lasts.
SJG
https://wandi.fun/en/south_korea/seoul/s…
"How would you like to enjoy an intimate french kissing session with some college student from Seoul? If making out with hot young girls is a thing for you, definitely do not miss out Kiss Rooms (or Kiss Bang in Korean) in Seoul."
https://www.worldnightinfo.com/korea/kis…
TJ Street
https://tuscl.net/photos/5d699507cd73c
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=1061
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=3513
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=3560
https://tuscl.net/photo.php?id=2305
https://tuscl.net/photos/5cbf9f521a3ae
Graham Bond ✪ Holy Magick [full album]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0Exbl-S…
Grahame Bond - Love Is the Law [full album / bonus tracks]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyg8x36f…
M Davis Bitches Brew 1970 Full Album
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50fB5L1v…
This is why he is so concerned about down playing corona, as the Ponzi Stock Market is all he has to show for his Presidency.
SJG
Neil Young - Imagine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R15uLXHq…
You want to put you money into a Ponzi Scheme which only goes up because the federal gov't keeps borrowing money, be my guest you stupid idiot.
SJG
SJG
Plus.... get this.... most people don't know this.... but the "earnings" that public companies disclose on their statements are based on one accounting standard (a standard that changes based on who's in public office), but there is a completely different set of accounting standards that give a very different picture! If all you looked at were the earnings released to the public, you would think these current stock prices are fair. But if you looked at the NIPA corporate profits series, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A446R… , you would get a COMPLETELY different idea of corporate profitability!
So, not only are stocks overvalued based on a view of history, those valuations use an "earnings" metric that is very optimistic, and, I suspect, very biased and manipulated! Imagine how overvalued these stock prices would appear if these valuation metrics were based on NIPA data!
Despite that, though, the daily RSI of S&P 500 hit a low today, in the morning, and that low was lower than the daily RSI of any other day in the past 20 years, so I said FUCK IT, and I bought a 3x leveraged NASDAQ ETF! What can't continue forever, won't continue forever, and stock markets can't plunge all the way down to zero, with each day lower than the other. Only way that will happen is in the apocalypse. So, given a record low in daily RSI, I figured stocks will bounce back for at least a day or two. Looks like it bounced back up in the second half of today, so hopefully the markets open positive on Monday and I can sell my ETF for a solid 10%+ return.
SJG
The Federal government is advising people to practice social distancing for eight weeks but every city/state is only focusing on the next two weeks. Something will give.
Closed businesses, revenues are hurt, wages are hurt, spending drops - stocks drop lower.
Or tell yourself that the DOW would never dip further!
Sure you can't time the absolute bottom but you can definitely wait for actual signs of recovery. I'm looking forward to picking up a nice townhouse on sale in a year when rates are still sub 50bps and people are hungry to sell.
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I did raise some cash before the virus, but the downturn has been fast, deep, and breathtaking. I've lost more money than I care to think about. I bet you're making money @FTS since you're not afraid to think outside the box.
Overall market PE is about 20 times earnings right now which is still higher than the historical mean (about 16). So you could argue that the market is still slightly overvalued even after the recent collapse. But the decline creates a great buying opportunity for young people (tried to explain that to my SB, but she's not listening). I haven't done any selling whatsoever.
Anyone care to speculate how this will end? Just thinking out loud, it seems to me it ends with either (1) vaccine development which could be 12 to 18 months away or (2) herd-immunity on a time-scale that's impossible to predict. Or maybe we get lucky and the virus subsides because of warm weather or some other unknown feature of the virus (e.g., it has a more virulent strain that kills and flames out quickly). A massive increase in testing would help the market.
On an optimistic note, I'm thinking the market could come roaring back after the virus scare is over and on a much shorter time scale than the last recovery.
OT, here's a TED talk by Bill Gates -- five years ago -- about how we're not prepared for the next epidemic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wy…
I think I'm going to listen to Gates more carefully in the future.
In hindsight that might have been a good thing. The market has tanked a lot more since Feb 27 and there is no end in sight. The full economic ramifications of shutting down most of the consumer economy for months are just starting to come into focus. Expect yet another horrible day today.
One would assume a possible vaccine would be super-fast-tracked but likely still take some time
Plus, if this flu bug acts like other flu bugs, it will disappear in the Summer and be much weaker when it returns in the Fall.
I don’t think we’ll need to wait 18 months before things improve.
I hope, after we get things under control, that we clean house at the CDC.
Unfortunately, I also had a somewhat large position in Bitcoin. Fortunately I dollar-cost-average bought my position in November-December last year, when the price was in the 6.5-8k range, so it’s not like I FOMO bought when the price had its recent peak at 10.5k. Still, that was a big sell off that Bitcoin had, so my portfolio lost a decent amount there.
Regarding where this is going.... I’ve heard some very doom & gloom predictions from some very smart people. In particular, Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has a very gloomy outlook. Like.... global depression. And he has a very detailed analysis of how the house of cards is falling. I can’t explain it here, but it doesn’t take much to put it all together considering corporations were indebted at record levels, and there are tons of corporations rated BBB, just one notch above junk grade. Add to that the fact that one of the major buyers of corporate debt is the pension funds. And somehow state taxes is wrapped up in this. But, basically, his description is basically that this is all a house of cards because the Federal Reserve’s QE has been an EXTREME moral hazard. Why not take risk when we have solved all of economics? Quantitative Easing and Modern Monetary Theory can save the day in any failing economy, so don’t worry about bankruptcy! Just borrow tons of money and don’t care about the consequences, the Fed has your back!
Raoul Pal owns Bitcoin. He just tweeted that he has now sold all his bond positions, so now he has only two things in his portfolio: dollars, and Bitcoin.
When are you people going to wake up? How sustainable can Monopoly Money really be? How can you run an advanced economy on fake funny money? Yes, of course, the dollar is universally accepted as payment..... but it’s also so easily manipulated and devalued! And now, our flat broke government is going to somehow support its citizens?! Just listen to Peter Schiff’s show today! He pointed out the obvious.... it’s the people that support the government, not vice versa. Our government has been broke for many years, so how can they send money to everybody?! The answer is simple: because the money has no value. They’re not really sending the people anything of value, which is why they can do it.
But hey...... as long as we can stare into the boob tube at night...........
As a result, I think we’ll see a rapid recovery in the US once CoVid is under control. As far as Europe and China, I think they are in deep doo doo. So, it may be a global recession but we’ll have an easier time of it here.
Senator Richard Burr
Senator Kelly Loefner
Senator Dianne Feinstein,
Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Jim Inhofe
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/busin…
It's by Robert Shiller and gives his perspective on the stock market. Some excerpts:
"Predictions for the Coronavirus Stock Market
A Nobel laureate is cautiously positive about the market for the long run but worries about how long that will need to be.
I believe the pandemic’s effect on stock prices today is better understood as a series of emotional responses to unique events. People are trading stocks with their cellphones on their living room couches with the television news blaring about the pandemic. There is widespread foreboding, not just about the economy but about the possibility of grave illness or death in the weeks ahead.
People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may. If you are 60, for example, you should hold 40 percent stocks, under this rule.
But this advice isn’t grounded in any scientific truth about financial markets.
I don’t object to it, however. For psychological reasons, it may be a good idea to follow some rule as long as it doesn’t defy common sense. And the 100 minus your age stock market rule has some virtues: It impels older people to take fewer risks, yet encourages them to take limited action in market downturns, buying just enough to restore the stock balance after market declines. Taking some action may make people feel better.
Let’s hope that the current pandemic does not reach proportions so tragic that will similarly blossom into a narrative that is remembered for decades, with the power of depressing stock prices for a long time. I think there is a risk that could happen but I don’t expect that it will.
On balance, I’d emphasize that the stock market is not as expensive as it was just a month ago. Based on history we would expect to see it to be a reasonable long-term investment, attractive at a time when interest rates are low.
As a practical matter, my advice is to look at your portfolio to make sure that it is not so heavily weighted to stocks that further losses would be unbearable. Otherwise, I’d try not to worry too much about the stock market. Most likely, it will do moderately well in the coming years, even if there is a risk that you will need to be very patient.
I would worry more about keeping one’s family safe from the coronavirus."
They're all working from home. I'm sure we've all seen movies of analysts and traders all squished into desks around the floor of some high rise tower, yelling at each other in some large open room.... They aren't there today, for sure, they are working, but from home. All their communications is virtual, and communication with customers is still required to me recorded, so they still have to use company email, IM, phone... (can't just call a customer on a personal cell phone, violates SEC regulations requiring records of the conversation).
So, if this gives you hint's how all their activity and behavior might be different and how I might be able to take advantage, let me know...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/stock-ma…
https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/a…
It will make for interesting times.
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I wonder, are junk bonds a lower investment grade than the dogshit mortgage-backed securities purchased during the last crisis?
www.expressnews.com"
^ Just keep gloating about your white privilege and the fact that you are better at getting welfare than Mexicans are.