discussion comment
2 years ago
My guess is “yo momma” will not be funny in this context?
discussion comment
2 years ago
Charlie Brown Thanksgiving Special is always a family favorite!
discussion comment
2 years ago
John J Bullock
Elton John
Johnny Holmes
….. oops! I thought the title read favorite fag! You can see why someone would think that, considering who the OP is.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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rickduganVerified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
Conan, hubris is Rickyboy’s middle, first, and last name. He comes from a culture where if you say something with conviction, people may believe you. At least “hubris” believes in himself, like little men do in order to compensate.
discussion comment
2 years ago
I see Spice has taken a page out of the progressives’ playbook. Simply disparage anyone who disagrees with you, and that is how to elevate the position you stand on. Some rising tide you got there…..
discussion comment
2 years ago
I love Blippi, Disney’s Cars and Cars2 and Cars 3, and Spidey and His Amazing Friends.
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2 years ago
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rickduganVerified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
Sounds more like managing emotions more than anything else. Have fun with that….
discussion comment
2 years ago
You should let them fuck you in the mouth.
review comment
2 years ago
About 15 years ago I went to a club just before midnight 🕛 n New Year’s Eve, because the Hiliter was slow and I was bored. I think the club was called Cheetah’s at that time (on 7th St/Indian School). Anyway, nobody goes there now, but back then they had a hot enhanced bartender who fed me drinks and chatted with me gossiping about the club shenanigans. I’m pretty sure I was the only white/white collared professional in there, and it was standing room only. I am glad to have Something like that as a memory once in my lifetime, and would fondly like to see it again sometime. I am thinking the night time clubbing scene here isn’t anywhere near what you will find in Scottsdale or the burbs.
discussion comment
2 years ago
^^ oh man, now I can see why Scrub doesn’t think you’re for reals. Night time has long been known for a different experience than day, and we are definitely not comparing talent. There’s no reason to go here at night because the talent is better. No f-ing way! At least the people who’ve been around here know this.
If you want to get closer to the ghetto hip hop vibe, then go at night.
discussion comment
2 years ago
I'd be Pakistani. I think they're the sexuest most beautiful people.
Well then, Icee, you’re basically telling yourself you want to go fuck yourself if you are wanting to be Pakistani because they are the most beautiful in your eyes. Go ahead and be our guest, and go fuck your self.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Cough! Cough! I think I’ll just leave this here, as the continuous rounds of “I told you so” will continue for the next 12 months.
https://apple.news/Abu0rqyFASHCfVPWFdKbA0w
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel expects 2023 to be a strong year for equities as the Federal Reserve finally acknowledges that inflation is easing.
He expects the stock market to surge at least 15% and as much as 20% next year, which would send the S&P 500 back to 4,740 based on current levels, near record highs not seen since the start of this year.
"I think basically 90% of our inflation is gone," Siegel told CNBC in an interview on Monday, explaining that on-the-ground inflation, especially in the housing market, is declining at a considerable rate despite lagging indicators relied on by the Fed showing the exact opposite.
"My point has been housing has declined but the way the government computes it is so lagged that it will continue to show increases. And I think finally the Fed will say, 'you know what, on the ground things are all declining and we got to think about that,'" he said.
Siegel expects the Fed to soon pivot away from its aggressive rate hiking path, explaining that the Fed will likely raise rates by only 50 basis points at its December FOMC meeting. The Fed has increased interest rates by 75 basis points at its last four meetings.
But what will be more important for investors to focus on at the December FOMC meeting is the statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which should, according to Siegel, include a "real strong hint" of an upcoming pause in further Fed tightening policies.
"They need to pause to see what actually is going to happen. That would really spark a big rally. But even a strong statement that we have seen good signs about inflation and that most of our [rate] increases are behind us I think could spark a December rally. If not then, it will come in January," he added.
In regards to a recent note from Goldman Sachs that said the stock market will likely end flat in 2023, Siegel said, "I think they're being way too pessimistic... I think the market is undervalued."
"It's taken way too long for the Fed to get it and they haven't gotten it yet that inflation is basically over, but they will, and I think they're going to get it maybe very late this year or early next year. And I think as soon as they get it you're going to see a big increase in equity prices," he said.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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rickduganVerified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
I’d be greedy for a BHarlem’s ass!
discussion comment
2 years ago
Here’s a little news for the Rickyboi camp today. TLDR:Odds are handicapped to equal of both outcomes. Reveling in the past?
https://apple.news/AwHS4AFe-RMqRI1xUeHUiTA
History says inflation could persist for a decade
If you are a retiree, or even near to retirement, you are probably more vulnerable to inflation than most.
Your cost of living is probably rising faster than your income. You’re lucky if any pension or annuities raise their payouts to match rising prices. Social Security does, but only a year in arrears. If you are in your senior years, the stock market turmoil caused by this year’s inflation crisis poses a significant risk. A lost few years in the markets is more dangerous to someone of 70 than someone of 30.
And then there’s the risk to bonds and bond mutual funds, a staple of the typical retirement portfolio. Bonds suffer the most from rising prices, because the future interest payments are fixed. So the higher inflation goes, the less those payments are worth in today’s money. Meanwhile, as governments fight inflation with higher interest rates, bonds sold with the old interest rate become less and less attractive. They fall in value to compensate.
All in all a dismal outlook, and even worse than that currently faced by the young and those in early middle age.
Last week’s news that October’s official inflation figure had come in below fears has sent stocks and bonds booming. And is causing some to hope that the inflation crisis may soon be over. Maybe inflation has peaked and will start heading back down. Are happy days here again?
Not so fast, warns legendary financial guru Rob Arnott, the chairman of money management firm Research Affiliates.
He’s run the numbers on all the big inflation surges in developed economies going all the way back to 1970. (There were over 50, remarkably.) His conclusion? We will be very lucky indeed if this inflation crisis ends quickly.
Lucky, as in he gives it no more than a 20% chance.
The likelier scenario is that even if it starts to come back down, inflation may persist higher for longer than the markets, money managers, or the Federal Reserve thinks.
That’s because, in effect, inflation has reached the kind of critical mass or momentum this year that makes it much harder to control.
“An inflation jump to 4% is often temporary, but when inflation crosses 8%, it proceeds to higher levels over 70% of the time,” write Arnott and his co-author, analyst Omid Shakernia.
This means us. The official U.S. inflation rate broke above 8% in March and stayed there till September, peaking at 9.1% in June. (And that’s the annual rate, meaning the change in prices from 12 months earlier. The month-over-month change in prices, while much more volatile than the annual figure, has actually shown even faster inflation at points this year—and actually just rose, rather than fell, in October).
“Reverting to 3% inflation, which we view as the upper bound for benign sustained inflation, is easy from 4%, hard from 6%, and very hard from 8% or more,” warn Arnott and Shakernia.
Once inflation breaks above 8%, they find, “reverting to 3% usually takes 6 to 20 years, with a median of over 10 years.”
Ten years?
There are a couple of important caveats. The first is that the past is no guarantee of the future. Just because these things happened in previous instances of 8% inflation over the past 50 years doesn’t mean they will happen this way this time. (If “this time is different” are the four most dangerous words in finance, as Sir John Templeton once said, “this time is the same” are among the most dangerous five.)
After all, it could work out. The authors write that they are simply handicapping possible outcomes, not making a prediction. “Those who expect inflation to fall rapidly in the coming year may well be correct.” But, they warn, “history suggests that’s a “best quintile” outcome. Few acknowledge the “worst quintile” possibility, in which inflation remains elevated for a decade. Our work suggests that both tails are equally likely, at about 20% odds for each.”
Actually, they add, if U.S. inflation really has just peaked and is on the way down, we should count ourselves pretty lucky. Only 30% of the time in the past 52 years has inflation peaked between 8% and 10% and then gone back down. In the other 70% of the time, once it’s made it over 8% it had risen above 10%.
But what is remarkable about this is that the markets—and the Fed—are currently making this lucky outcome their central forecast. It’s one thing to hope for sunshine when there is an 80% chance of rain. It is another to go on a very long walk without a raincoat or umbrella.
Yet the Federal Reserve is currently (at least publicly) saying it expects inflation to plunge very quickly, averaging 3.5% or less next year and 2.6% or less in 2024.
The bond markets are just as optimistic, and currently bet that inflation will average 2.4% over the next five years.
If they are right, it will all work out. But if they aren’t? Watch out for those bonds and bond funds. Even today, after this year’s surge in yields, the 10 Year Treasury is yielding less than 4% in an environment where prices are rising faster than that. BBB-rated corporate bonds, mean the “riskiest” bonds that still count as investment grade, will pay you 6%. Better, but still not great if inflation doesn’t come down.
Incidentally, a number to watch is the monthly inflation figure. How much did prices rise between last month and the month before? What does that work out to as an annualized figure?
According to the U.S. Labor Department, this has been rising, not falling. It was 0% in July and August. (You may remember the administration boasting about 0% inflation. This is what they meant.) But this figure jumped to 2.5% in September and nearly doubled to 4.9% last month.
discussion comment
2 years ago
I was rong, Rickyboi is a spot on prognosticator, whatever he predict just do the opposite and you’ll be right!
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://stocks.apple.com/ASRKX_GPTRm6V61eUqyXwLw
The latest rally in U.S. stocks following signs of cooling inflation isn’t likely sustainable, warned Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Instead, Wren sees a lot hanging on a few signs that inflation may be starting to fade, triggering yet another bullish upswing for stocks on expectations that the Federal Reserve will “pivot,” or pause its interest-rate hikes.
“We have seen this happen numerous times over the last few months as economic data has been released,” Wren wrote in a Wednesday client note. But his team said they suspect that if the October consumer-price index “had come in two-tenths (or even one-tenth) above the consensus estimate,” the market response might not have been “as pretty.”
The S&P 500 index SPX was trading lower on Wednesday, but still up about 6% from a week ago, according to FactSet data. Looking through a longer lens showed a 10.6% increase
Again Dugan, if you were paying attention, for which you lack on filling up your bottomless pit of a hole, you’d see that as a remedial student you’d recall this round isn’t anywhere near the decades long 70’-80’s style that you pretend to state with conviction is happening, although be it quite stupidly. I need no time to know what I am talking about, as you “think” you know what you’re speaking about. Somehow you’ve flown over the cuckoos nest as a legitimate person knowledgeable of qualified investment experiences. May I remind you how you were advising on this board for everyone to purchase RICK’s, not sure of the ticker symbol, about 10 years ago. An epic failure of a stock pick! But that’s ok Rickyboi, you can go to bed tonight “thinking” you’ve got this right as I remind you during the upcoming months how big of a faggit you are, being slam dunked just like Dougster used to do to you back in the day. Sleep like a baby so you’re not so grumpy when November readings come out Dec 10th-13th. All I “know” is that I’ve never pushed a stupid stock like RICK’s and doubled down on a losing pick like the kind of stock picker you are. Nice credibility you for their boi! I’m glad you “think” you know what you’re talking about, so at least you got that going for you, because perception is reality in your world.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Dugan, my position has been an overwhelming PSA for emotionally fragile people following the headline CPI inflation reports that have been coming in for several months at yoy rates over 8%. The PSA being those are reports looking 12 months backwards, and me stating it is noteworthy to look at this currently not rising at the pace we saw from the past 12-18 months. The fed has never done four consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes, ever in its history so at least you for that going for you regarding Powell (not). The spickets are off, balance sheets have been rolling off, and the correction to balance out the markets has been dramatic into disinflation currently. As I said every month since August, I will be repeating “I told you so” for the next 12 months as we see yoy CPI, producer price index, and any other bureau of Labor Statistics ringing in lower annual rates, repeatedly. However, some people gravitate toward drama and live to squeal like a junior high girl at a slumber party when discussing inflation today. Frankly, me making everyone aware that these adult men don’t need to search out an emotional support dog to get them through this momentary jump in cost of living, has made this quite the ungracious greeting from those who need the daily affirmations. That’s ok, when the stock market is up and escalating inflation rates are long behind us, I highly suspect those emotionally fragile men will forget that “I told you so”. That’s pretty much expected when it comes to things like personal finance. The emotions portray the disconnect from real life. It’s why people hire others to handle these issues for them, because people and their emotions make them their own worst enemy. Your welcome!
discussion comment
2 years ago
I’m not old and I never been on twitter, more out of social media fatigue. How does twitter stay relevant going forward with the new competition (Truth via Trump- just kidding) and all other outlets? My stance on staying away from twitter has been justified IME, but to each his own.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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rickduganVerified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
All this p4p talk reminds me of the saying regarding show me a hot woman, and I’ll show you someone tired of fucking her. 6 months is generally a good rule for the expiration date, depending on frequency and chemistry. I found this to be true in about all of my civilian relationships. Enjoy the hunt!
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://stocks.apple.com/AIpTIVFWuST2RDqQlZJvO0A
And the hits keep coming!! I told you so.
The producer price index rose 0.2% in October, below the 0.4% estimate.
A significant contributor to the slowdown in wholesale inflation was a 0.1% decline in services, the first outright decline in that measure since November 2020.
On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September.
In other economic news, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November registered a reading of 4.5%, much better than the estimate for a -6% reading
review comment
2 years ago
Wow! Now I’m curious as to the blond thing. Another big spender compared to my broke ass, cause for that $$ I can host a pool party, get high, and then defile her at my place. But I guess you have to do some sort of recon first. Good review!
discussion comment
2 years ago
Expert predictions about inflation for 2023
Over the weekend, analysts from Goldman Sachs forecast that one key measure of inflation — the core price consumption expenditures index, or core PCE — could drop to 2.9% by the end of 2023.
Core inflation is different from headline inflation. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices, which tend to swing more frequently and dramatically than other prices. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on core PCE inflation, and targets a level of 2% in a healthy economy. (To make it even more confusing — these numbers are different from inflation measured via the consumer price index, or CPI, which came in at 7.7% on an annual basis in October, down from 8.2% in September.)
Right now, core PCE is at 5.1%. Goldman’s experts expect that number to drop as supply chain constraints improve, rental price growth slows down, and wage growth slows down, too. Those three factors are signs the economy is on its way back to a healthier state.
Other experts agree, though some are more optimistic than others
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://apple.news/AkBwe2QwmQmK6ShjVK_tgXw
Expert predictions about inflation for 2023
Over the weekend, analysts from Goldman Sachs forecast that one key measure of inflation — the core price consumption expenditures index, or core PCE — could drop to 2.9% by the end of 2023.
Core inflation is different from headline inflation. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices, which tend to swing more frequently and dramatically than other prices. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on core PCE inflation, and targets a level of 2% in a healthy economy. (To make it even more confusing — these numbers are different from inflation measured via the consumer price index, or CPI, which came in at 7.7% on an annual basis in October, down from 8.2% in September.)
Right now, core PCE is at 5.1%. Goldman’s experts expect that number to drop as supply chain constraints improve, rental price growth slows down, and wage growth slows down, too. Those three factors are signs the economy is on its way back to a healthier state.
Other experts agree, though some are more optimistic than others
More I told you so news!!
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://apple.news/AkBwe2QwmQmK6ShjVK_tgXw
More I told you so news!
discussion comment
2 years ago
^^^ ok, China Donnie causing the April 2020 drop in equities is about as dumb as SkiDumb claiming inflation is high due to the statements he reads from his clients balance statements. Trump is a big loser by the way, but not in April 2020.