Inflation is Starting to “Drop Like a Rock”, leading to deflation.

The guy sounds like a moron to me.

Monthly statistical blips will always occur, just as they did in the 70s. It's why we measure inflation using a rolling 12-month gauge. We also need to look at broader structural issues which drive inflation in setting forward looking policy.

Labor markets are as tight as ever, which is definitely not helped by the never-ending expansion of Obamacare subsidies and the never-ending "state of emergency" that has continued to allow many states to waive work requirements for food stamps.

Our energy bills are about to jump even more too. Natural gas recently hit a 14 year high and most of our electric providers pass that on to us in surcharges. Labor and energy price inflation impacts every other aspect of the economy and are significant drivers of future price inflation.

Housing prices are still at unsustainable levels. While they are starting to come down a little, they have a long way to go to be within historical norms as compared to average household income.

Oil and auto gas, while coming down a bit from recent highs, are still very high compared to a year ago. Those increases are still rolling through the economy on a delayed basis, but will continue to feed price increases for some time to come until they are fully absorbed.

States are still awash in excess cash and are back to handing out goodies to residents. This is not helping matters either.

Until the Fed raises rates high enough for long enough to burst asset bubbles and bleed money/demand out of the economy, high inflation will inevitably persist.

Stock market investors thinking Powell will pivot and quit raising interest rates because inflation is going to decrease soon are engaged in wishful thinking. Volcker had to raise interest rates above the inflation rate to kill inflation. We are a long way away from that now.

@Doc: Sadly I am concerned that Powell is no Volcker. Volcker had the stones to plunge the U.S. into a deep recession, understanding that the temporary pain was worth the longer-term result. The market has been betting that Powell does not have that resolve and I suspect that they are right.

IMO the reason the market went down over the past few trading days is because Powell made comments that made him look like just a little bit less of a pussy than they previously perceived him to be. But IMO they're still ultimately betting that he's going to cave long before inflation is truly tamed.

Yeah I'm not seeing prices go down. Inflation is still high af. Donuts that were 75 cents last week are $1.55 today... everything keeps going up at qn insane rate coz of greed

People need to either start stealing en masses or boycotting businesses

^

What kind of fucking donuts were .75 in L A or Vegas? Are you dumpster diving with the creep now? Lulz

Globalization led to low prices. With unlimited free trade, goods could be sourced to the cheapest country. America enforced free trade and kept the shipping lanes open.

That era is coming to an end. China is collapsing rapidly before our eyes. All that manufacturing capacity will need to be be rebuilt somewhere else, which will take years, cost Trillions, and result in supply chain shortages.

Most of the worlds fertilizer is sourced to Russia and China. They have essentially stopped exporting this. Food output is plunging, as we’ll see over the next year.

Well established trade systems, like energy exports from Russia to Europe, are being wiped out. In Germany, they are chopping wood to prepare for winter without natural gas.

We are in for a rough 5 years as everything is turned on it’s head. Inflation will continue. It will be worse outside the US, in places without our energy and agricultural resources, but it will be bad here too.

Since everything is a backwards view in the rear view mirror, we just have to wait and see next Labor Day’s reading in 2023, but I’ve always listened to this guys predictions more than anyone else.

"People need to either start stealing en masses" It's called "San Francisco." Poop and used needles on the sidewalk sold separately.

"or boycotting businesses" Yeah, we'll drill our own gas, manufacture our own cars, raise our own cows, and build our own houses.

God damn you are stupid today, pimpy.

People need to start fighting back. I support any means against landlords and business owners and corporations. They're not human jn my eyes

Without landlords, there would be no rental properties. Anyone who couldn’t afford to buy a home would be homeless.

Without business owners or corporations, there would be no jobs and no food or other goods for purchase.

Other than that, it’s a good plan.

^^ what about drug dealers? How humane are they, and I’m not talking the pharmaceutical companies.

What about quasi pimp wannabes? How human are they? Asking for a friend.

^ What about woman beaters, manipulators, liars, those who get them addicted to drugs, and thieves?

LOL Icee! Theyre not human? That’s sick. Do you think strip club owners arent human either? Brothel owners? McDonalds owners?

Well I can't affirm or deny Mate's article. I mostly look at the official data. What I do see on the ground though is a very slow retail economy, slow than it was a year ago.

SJG

Icee there aren’t any donuts that doubled in price within a one week period. Unless its some small no name donut stand in some trailer park who individually decided to double their prices. I don’t think any product or service has doubled in price in the past week.

There's no need for landlords or business owners. There are forms of communal ownership that are more efficient. Turn businesses into co ops. Stop bring brainwashed to think you need to be making someone else rich. They're exploiting subhuman parasites

^ Yeah because all these communes are developing lifesaving cancer therapies, building new technology platforms, feeding millions of people, and innovating all the technology that's going to save the world from global warming. Lulz

Sometimes I wonder if you say all this stupid shit just to make me feel smarter then I am, pimpy.

That technology advancement depends upon capitalism is silly and it opposes the reality. Most advances are made by people who don't get much more than a basic salary for their efforts.

SJG

^ Nope. In my field, the government funds the very basic research, which is a teeny tiny fraction of the overall spend. It's investors ("financializers") and profitable corporations spending the big bucks to assume the risk and bring the drug through clinical trials. Even if something is "discovered" in someone's basement, it isn't refined, let alone scaled without a shitload of money behind it.

Look at the advances that came out of capitalist America at the same time as the communist USSR--and this was a communist empire that valued R&D and science education. And we still outdid them.

Look at all the great scientific advances coming out of non-capitalist economies now. And before you cite China, look at what they did before and after Deng Xiaopeng introduced capitalist reforms there. Night and day, makes my point.

In the end, people like you are left raging out on internet message boards. Icee's waiting for someone else to pick up a gun and start his revolution. Not sure which is more, as Donald Trump would say...SAD!

There is no shortage of money to fund ventures. Lots of it.

Most industries actually do better when the Venture Capitalists get out and they can fund stuff themselves from customer generated proceeds. What the VC's want is too focused on explosive gains, and so it more often than not fails.

Capitalism works best when it is highly regulated and taxed, not like it is now.

Things were better in the US before Reagan.

SJG

Free - Wishing Well youtube.com

^ hbr.org

When they can fund stuff from customer generated proceeds; that isn't always an option. In biotech, you can shell out hundreds of millions before you sell your first dollar. Unless you want unregulated drugs, you need VC funding. Even when you don't have that barrier to entry, it could be years without funding before you have enough to sell.

The VC model is to fund a bunch of failures, a couple break-evens, and one big winner that more than pays for the rest. That's the risk profile of early stage businesses period, from restaurants to tech platforms.

Your opinions on when capitalism works are just that, opinions. Entrepreneurs are coming and getting funded here. We're doing something right. The big problems of the 21st century--aging, green energy, quantum computing, AI--will be solved by innovators, not wealth redistribution.

There is no shortage of funding. Stuff can be internally funded, "years without funding before you have enough to sell". And a lot of this biotech is dystopia stuff, like that so called COVID vaccine. AI advances are often dystopia too.

When the VC's are doing it, different stuff is done different ways than when it is funded internally.

This new America Competes Act is not really that much money, it will supplement internal funding, not encourage stupid stuff.

THings work better with less VC direction.

Doug Henwood:

amazon.com

Very little of the money put into the stock market funds new ventures. It is really just paying off old investors, and these have a strangle hold on our productive capacity.

SJG

@SJG, if you're going to find the first book that supports you--as if anyone's going to buy a book on Amazon for an internet argument--don't pick a one-sided one from 1997; since then we've had tech booms and busts, real estate booms and busts, the rise and fall of SPACs, and a whole new set of companies that rule the world.

Biotech will soon stop funding COVID. It's already not the money maker it used to be. What it is funding is new drugs for cancer, heart disease, and neurodegeneration. Some are looking at the aging process itself. Glibly dismissing it all as "dystopia" only shows your ignorance. Without VC, you're relying on angel investors and a small handfuls of philanthropies with a very limited success record (cystic fibrosis is one of the few ones, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals put in the cash to develop the drugs).

VC funding hit $109 billion in Apr-Jun 2022 alone. This is where the next generation of cleantech, biotech, IT are all coming from, that and much-derided profits that aren't suctioned away by taxation. Venture funding funds a lot more innovation than shareholder buybacks and dividends, which are literally what big companies do when they don't have better uses for it.

I recall America being a great place when Reagan was president.

And yes, these booms and busts increase the wealth gap, and generally leave a mess.

Once a busts starts, it is hard to stop it. But if you refuse to support the booms, then something good is accomplished.

The semi-conductor industry had made more progress after it went off the radar of the VCs. It will be like this in other fields too.

SJG

@SJG, semiconductor VC funding has jumped 52% in 2020-2021. Not sure where you're getting your data from. brownstoneresearch.com

The "wealth gap" is the price to pay for extreme prosperity for some. We could have no wealth inequality if we were all hunter-gatherers dying at an average age of 30.

But it dried up at the end of the 80's because of the big fabs going up in asia. So for decades the semiconductor industry was self funded, and it did smarter and more effective stuff.

And there can be different kinds of stuff we do today.

SJG

Capitalism rewards the bold, and nobody ever got well off by complaint their way to an upper status of wealth, unless you’re a radical liberal like Bernie and AOC.

@SJG, and it's gone in different directions now. Particularly specialized semiconductors for specific tasks. The 80s were 40 years ago.

"Different stuff," if it requires money, is going to require funding. Unless Icee can point out some breakthrough technology that was founded in a co-op or commune. Still waiting.

Capitalism tends to reward what we don't want to reward, and this is why we need political consciousness raising. And right now what does a lot of that is Gender Studies and Racial Grievance programs.

SJG

^^ victim culture advocates. Scum of the earth, like Al Sharpton and Suze Orman.

I don't like Suze Orman.

My Org is happening and it will take care of our people extremely well. But we are not to be a nation state.

As far as the nation state we will always be fighting for the Radical Left, Social Democracy.

SJG

^^ not it’s not. Yiu embellished every thing on here like a model sociopath would. I’m sure your the only one in your organization. Probably less than anyone on this website. Yiu said you were homeless during the pandemic and the organization stalled. I don’t think you are actually doing what you’re saying in here!

^ No, we don't. We have more than enough political consciousness in a day when any idiot with an internet connection can be a "content creator," or God forbid, an "influencer."

We need more people that can think straight. Gender studies and racial grievance is the Newsmax of the left, it shouldn't even be called "academic" as it isn't in the pursuit of truth. We want Americans who will treat each other as brothers and sisters, not who are re-segregating and taking us backwards.

We need scientists and engineers. Humanities only if they've gone through a rigorous "great books" program with training in philosophy and logic--something that teaches them how to think rather than what to think.

@Mate, if you can't attract even one guy who likes to pay for pussy to a sex cult, might be time to rethink your sales and marketing.

Mate you are trying to float nonsense to build siege scaffolds to attack my privacy wall.

1.bp.blogspot.com

Tetra, do you know that they key texts for Gender Studies and Racial Grievance are? Read them?

Probably they are Marx / Foucault inspired.

SJG

^ I see what their proponents say every day, and how their policies are implemented. They are literally going back to the days of "separate but equal" facilities and ceremonies.

I have read some of Kendi and DiAngelo for example, and to call them crap would be an insult to all types of feces. They are all heat, no light. They make no attempt to intellectually defend their positions, literally only to insult those who disagree with them. They have no merit whatsoever.

If they were inspired by Marx and Foucault, that would explain why they're so destructive.

Marx and Foucault, some of our most visionary.

Sounds interesting: rochester.edu

Also looks interesting: youtube.com

SJG

^ Interesting, right.

If you say you're racist, then you're racist. If you say you're not racist, then you're racist.

Real scholar, that one is.

I'm listening to the videos now.

SJG

Hey mentally disabled moron, you listen to audio and watch video!

Is proving to be most telling. It is exactly what I am usually seeing on TUSCL.

youtube.com

SJG

Alternative forms of ownership are viable. You're brainwashed if you think we need rich exploiters.

^ Prove it, show us one major technological advances that occurred that way

A major impediment to our economic success, both short term and long term, is the lack of young, skilled labor. Because of the low birth rate in the 1980s and 1990s, we can’t fill job openings for skilled labor. I’m not just talking about engineers but nurses, medical technicians, modern factory workers, electricians, plumbers, etc.

If we don’t find a way fill these tax paying jobs, the whole system comes tumbling down, including the collapse of Medicare, Social Security, and every other government program. A society where half the population is old and retired cannot survive. And, that’s where we will be soon based on our current demographics.

Really, the only answer is to greatly expand LEGAL immigration using a merit based system. Let’s open the borders to young, English speaking, law abiding, educated workers from around the world. And, let’s control the border to stop illegal immigration from unqualified border crossers.

Or let's legally compel businesses to hire Americans at living wages

^That's illegal, so it cannot be done legally. By Americans at least you agree that ever fucking illegal alien and green card holder should never be hired. TET I noticed the lying sack of shit fraud big-mouth couldn't answer your question. Icee is sho nuff pretty fucking stupid.

^^ Or let's legally compel businesses to hire Americans at living wages

IF that could be done who defines “living wage”? So the business either raises prices, cuts staff or has to shut down.

As more people have more disposable income prices across the board go up and that living wage has you back where you started. I know just tax the rich cause they can afford it and raise corporate taxes because companies never pass on their higher costs to consumers.

Another option is to take advantage of our capitalist free market and build a better mouse trap that makes you rich. It’s amazing what hard work and initiative can accomplish for you.

Living wage js enough to afford the businesses prices. They want lower wages they should lower prices enough.

Rising wages never made prices go up. Greed did.

And the hardest working people in capitalism are the poorest. Stop with the work hard get rich fantasy. That's just political propaganda from the cold war

The "greed caused inflation" canard has been repeatedly debunked. Unless they've just gotten greedy over the last couple years.

We've had 14 years of bipartisan low interest rates and a ton of spending. Highly competitive sectors like used cars have seen some of the greatest increases.

But don't confuse Icee with facts or he'll tard rage. Lulz.

Do an honest days work if you want a fair wage, businesses can’t afford to pay non productive people for nothing, if you want to get paid for doing nothing get a government job, the private sector can’t afford to spend money on slackers.

Greed is the reason for astronomical profits. Businesses aren't lamenting raising prices as much as they can.

^ Incorrect.

When you got a person who is an apologist for ukrainian neonazis being an apologist for corporate greed..... yeah..... 🤡 #tetraplopbelike

^ When you've been bitch-slapped by facts and predictably go into a tard rage..... yeah..... 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Like you just did? Decolonize your mind.

Profits seem to follow those who work hard and a crack pipe follows those who believe in progressive politics.

Icee trying to rattle me with leftist intersectional-speak.

Sorry man, I don't speak Loser. Google translate for me, please.

Tetradon. You're a perfect example 9f a victim of white supremacy. You hate yourself so much you will say qnd so anything to be accepted by them

"Victim of white supremacy"? Huh? Sorry, still don't speak Loser. Can you speak a language that successful, happy people use?

Successful and happy people means white Americans to you. What you aspire to be.

LOL is that it, Icee? You're obsessed with race because you feel inferior to whitey?

Sad little "man." Go bleach your skin and eat some boiled potatoes.

I'm part of this great melting pot that is America.

Replying to Mark, we make it hard for people to go to college, and then when they do they get used as functionaries in Fratboy jobs.

And for Tetra, most of the semiconductor advances from 1990 were made without VC help.

SJG

cnbc.com

More supporting documentation on the perspectives that I admire from one of wall streets most accurate prognosticators, Tom Lee. Take heed to his call regarding all is clear on investing in the equity markets, despite all the commudger-isms we find here. In 5 years or so the market will be about 50% higher than it is today. Dow will be 45k, and the S&P will be at 5,500. It’s not an exact science, but it does use common sense of you’re into that sort of thing.

Foreign capital is flooding into the US because of higher rates, stronger dollar, safety, and it will be the only economy to survive the next 5 years.

China is collapsing from an aging population and the end of global trade. Within the next year, they will face mass starvation and economic collapse.

Europe is approaching a depression because of the end of cheap natural gas from Russia. They either shut down their businesses or ( as the UK plans ) take on massive debt to subsidize energy cost.

The US will continue to see higher prices as we are unable to buy cheap goods from abroad, but it will be a cake walk compared to the rest of the world.

Mark should the dollar be made out of tinfoil

apple.news

Another article supporting the claim that inflation is falling. They even stated there was deflation for the month of August. Some guys thrive in telling a doomsday story it becomes their shtick. Probably because nobody reacts to positivity as much as they do negative sky is falling narratives. People are addicted to their feelings, and you feel tye pain of loss more than the euphoria of winning. I’ve done my good deed for fellow TUSCLers by setting them straight. Inflation has been tamed for the past 2-3 months. In 9-10 months we will see the CPI inflation rate at 5% or lower for looking back 12 months. Your welcome!!

Prices keep going up. You're delusional and don't seem to get out much

^^ you don’t buy gas because you siphon it out of your neighbors vehicle like a good beaner?

^^ you haven’t tried buying a home with cash, because you’re a broke traveling pharmaceutical sales rep hopping from one homie to another homie’s apartment throughout the southwest?

^^ you don’t buy groceries because we know you’ve admitted on here that yiu steal from grocery chains.

Sure, I’m the delusional one. I see. I just got back from a family vacation with my kids, but you say I’m the one who doesn’t get out much? Something’s missing from your line of logic. It’s steeped in fantasy.

Inflation is falling ? Apparently not.

The global supply chain is rapidly collapsing. It will take 5 years to bring that capacity back to a North America. During the next 5 years, we’ll experience shortages and high prices. And, if the government doesn’t rein in spending, it will be even worse.

Mortgage rates now over 6.3%. That will bring down home prices and increase monthly costs, which will force people to cut back in other areas. Recession. Inflation.

Cathie Wood (ARK)is also in the same camp as Tom Lee, basically these technology based investment managers whole heartedly believe that technology eventually wins out and reigns inflation via productivity gains. They hedge their bets on leaning forward predictions before they happen, and the call on crypto was often blasted towards Tom Lee way before it caught on. Lee was correct in its stance and is still incredibly wealthy from his calls. Wood with ARK is in the same boat.

Headline inflation still dropped, and so much of the core CPI is weighted in housing and food that makes it sticky. 12 months from now we will get headline #s at 3%, because there is such a long lag from housing and food, and we have just started seeing national declines for housing partly fueled by the fed’s inflation mandate. Food and services will remain high, but if you’re not buying then inflation isn’t that bad. It really affects those house hunting or looking for vehicles, and many people already have those. Demand destruction is evident on Main Street, people buying less.

Anyhow, the old saying is that we have some really smart people (and kids) out there creating solutions to all of these problems and will capitalize on it. Mark’s dire outlook doesn’t figure in USA ingenuity to create viable solutions with our vast resources. Overseas people are also used to a certain standard of living which will cause them to conform with the speed and agility of American ingenuity, and guys like Tom Lee and Cathy Wood make a living out of that vision.

The government was still buying mortgage backed securities in March of 2022, and now those slickers are turned off by the government, we are just beginning to see the offset of taking away the punch bowl that was prominent the past 18 months.

“Mark’s dire outlook doesn’t figure in USA ingenuity to create viable solutions with our vast resources.”

I don’t doubt our ingenuity, I just respect the clock. We need to add steel capacity, chip factories, fertilizer plants, mining operations, pharmaceutical plants, etc. Those are all multi year projects. Like I said, we’ll be just fine in 5 years but it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

We actually don't have all that many smart people anymore. Our welfare and immigration policies over the last fifty years have had a dysgenic effect on the population. Younger people produce less and pay less taxes, are more dependent on the government, and are more likely according to polling to support socialist policies. The future is more politicians like AOC and Ilhan Omar.

Our natural resources are no longer what they once were either. U.S. population has gone from 200 to 300 million over the last fifty years. More people mean less resources for each person. Large parts of the country have depleted water resources and are facing water shortages. Soil depletion is worsening. We've used up a majority of our oil. Large scale fracking was only viable when fracking companies could borrow money at low interest rates, but interest rates are going up. The days of cheap gas for your car are over.

Our wealth was based on human resources, natural resources and a free-market economy but there have been declines in all three areas.

By looking at the combined markets of Canada ( natural resources, skilled immigrants ), Mexico ( age 20-40 workers and consumers ), and the US, we are better positioned than anywhere else to succeed over the next 30 years. Throw in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and Japan and we have all the human capital and natural resources to thrive as a self-contained market. Screw the Chinese, Russians, and Europe.

NAFTA, or whatever the new version is called. From an economic standpoint, North America is essentially one market.

We can reliably send our low added value manufacturing jobs to Mexico and sell our high value added goods to them. It’s a good fit.

Similarly, Canada will be a source of natural resources needed in our expanded manufacturing. And, they will be a market for goods as the American population ages ( 70 year olds don’t consume a lot, they downsize ).

I bet ol' Tommy boy wishes he kept his mouth shut right about now.

Inflation won't seriously subside until we bleed enough of the excess cash out of the system to seriously reduce demand for goods and services. Labor and energy demand are two of the leading indicators of inflationary conditions because they feed into the prices of virtually everything else and both were flashing red in August.

How so many market participants were so confused by this is mind boggling. Do they not go to the grocery store or pay electric bills? Do they not have even the most basic education in what happened in the 70s?

Inflation has come to a point where the Fed needs to do a lot more than continue tip toeing around to bring it under control. To break its back they're going to need to cause real economic pain. It's becoming increasingly clear to me that they don't have the stomach to do it.

Rick i have some stocks I really dont want to go down in price. Anytime theres news of the fed raising interest rates these stocks start dropping crazily. I really want to sell them off for at least what I paid for them. Supposedly they have a big meeting next week

It’ll be another 75 basis rate increase, however they’re already for asking the need to cut rates in 2023. Like the lag in cooling off the weather with the upcoming Autumnal Equinox next week, so do the inflation numbers lag. You know this because both equinox have the same amount of daylight(12 hours), except autumn’s equinox is a lot hotter than spring’s. I actually believe the current #s have been under reported and inflation is a lot higher with shelter costs rising 40% over the last 2 years. The devil is in the details. Fed is trying to engineer a housing slowdown, and it’s working to curb a large portion of the headline and core CPI readings.

Bottom line, inflation peaked a couple months ago when housing nationwide started falling.

Housing inflation has peaked. Energy has possibly peaked. Food inflation is just getting started.

That probably means overall inflation will trend lower than 9%, but food alone, plus anything where we rely on China, will keep us well above the target 2% for at least another year. Probably two years.

The problem is the only control on inflation, while the government spends another trillion, is increased interest rates. These reduce demand, but that’s only half our problem. The supply chain is broken and, until new sources can be developed, inflation will continue.

For example, we need new sources of potash and nitrogen fertilizer. Without that, yields will be low, as we are about to find out. It takes at least 2 years to develop new supplies.

Just look at what has happened with cars and chips. Two years in, we still haven’t solved that supply chain bottle neck.

Every gain from the past two years erased because the incompetent dems refused to acknowledge inflation, tried to claim a few modest decreases as a win, lied about a big-government spending bill which will only feed debt and inflation, increased entitlements to the rich and shifting the burden to the poor and working class, and they think the same lies and denial will "fix" the optics of the disaster at the southern border!

How fucking stupid can the dems get? They're lowering the bar every day!

apple.news

Another lucid article pertaining to how journalists are overhyping inflation reports. Really, Forbes is seeing it but why don’t the journalists see it? Because accurate reporting doesn’t scare the average reader like the typical journalist thinks they have to do in order to sell advertising.

I haven’t bought a house, a car, (nor a grocery store) for years so if you’re in the same situation as most people inflation mostly affects your food and fuel costs, not much of a household budget. The hype is way overblown and the last two-3 months show disinflation is taking place with energy and shelter costs dropping. That’s the truth! My clubs still have $10 high contact dances and many customers and dancers exchanging funds for services. Start investing cash if you haven’t already.

Like belichick says, 'I can only go by what I see'.

What I've seen in the past week, my last trip to the grocery store last week prices were higher than ever. This is Monday, gas has gone up 20 cents since Friday. I just paid the electric bills on my 2 houses, The temps have been cooler for the last 5-6 weeks so I barely ran the AC, less than the previous billing period, but the bill on my main house is higher than last month's bill.

Sorry buddy, I hope I'm eventually proven wrong, but what I see is higher prices for food, gas, and energy.

No matter how many editorials Democrats write to reassure voters before the election, the financial markets are the most accurate predictor of inflation.

10 Year Treasury Yield is 3.77% right now as the Bond rout continues. For reference, it began the year at 1.38%.

The wealthy are betting their assets that inflation will stay high for years.

China became the manufacturing source for the world. Nearly every manufactured good has at least one Chinese component. In most cases, China is the only available source for these components. For months, the Chinese factories have been shut down to stop the spread of Covid.

Six months ago, there were over 100 huge container ships waiting to enter the port of Long Beach. Most recently, there were only 8. The flow of critical goods has dried up.

Russia is a major supplier of oil, gas, and the chemicals needed for fertilizer. As a result of the Ukrainian embargo, only a fraction of this is being exported. And, since Russia relies on American technology and technologists to run its energy wells and pipelines, Russia’s ability to produce fossil fuels is crumbling.

Inflation results from an excess of demand over supply and our supply of critical goods has plunged.

The federal debt is now over $30 Trillion. As short term interest rates have risen from zero to the new target of 4.5 %, the federal government has an added interest expense of $1.5 Trillion per year, and rising. That’s about $15,000 per year for every taxpayer. Since government debt is ultimately taxpayer debt, that means your annual income just dropped by $15,000 ( payable either through higher taxes or inflation ). Start the money printing presses !

Given all this, the reason some “experts” are telling us that inflation is going away, is political propaganda.

Bidenflation is killing America and if you're a Democrat and suffering? Good, fucking suffer asshole.

Energy costs are dropping because Biden is taking petroleum out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and putting it on the market. All that oil will be gone by 2023 and prices will shoot back up when it is.

The CPI put out by the government is rigged. It shows a 6% increase in the cost of housing, but median house prices are up 30%. Rent prices are up more than 6% too. My rent went up 11% this year. They are just gaslighting the public here.

Biden and the Democrats are trying to improve their chances in the upcoming election using gimmicks like these.

tuscl.net

And so many of you love to live in the past!

apple.news

In the article it poses the question “Are we all renters all of a sudden?”

What has happened to the whole population of home owners out there, do they suddenly not matter anymore? Consumer is still strong, but not pissing away their money anymore. Just more selective. I’m sure at this point the fed is simply trying to save face and act tough in order to take credit for taming inflation after all of their prior miscalls. Powell is a trained attorney, and was accommodating too long because that’s what he was told to do. Paybacks a bitch, but if things continue they will need to cut rates sooner, possibly before 2024. We should be getting another lower gdp report next month is my guess. Hinting at recession fears.

I only fill out about 10 -25 financial statements a week for clients. Every single one of them would say that your source telling us inflation is tamed must be some lying Trump like cocksucker. About 85% of economists have predicted rate increase and then cuts in 2024, so wow some source.

The average on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.29% last Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. Last year around the same time, that rate was at 3.41%. Rates are as of Tuesday at 6.87%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Skibum, the source was directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so at least you got that going for you. If your clients had a high net worth with their shit together, I’d lay some credence to your latest response. Yet knowing it’s the opposite, let’s just let that sink in for a moment.

“The average on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.29% last Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. Last year around the same time, that rate was at 3.41%. Rates are as of Tuesday at 6.87%, according to Mortgage News Daily.”

I built my first house in my 20s and it was completed in 2006. I remember being happy with 6.35% being my interest rate back then. How times have changed… that was a once in a lifetime opportunity for many people from about 2010 until now. Nobody on here will probably see rates that low again in our lifetime.

The National Average 30 Year Mortgage Rate posted at 7.08% today. Wow, that happened fast.

Mate you are simply stupid. Freddie Mac is the source lol. How about the KKK as source on civil rights you in-bred fuckwad. Pretend rich little cunt.

Someone blew up the Nordstream pipeline yesterday. Most countries are pointing the finger at Joe Biden. A year ago, he said he would shut down the pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine. This closes any possibility that the pipeline can restart sending Russian gas to Northern Europe for the winter.

If Russia blows up the Norwegian pipelines in retaliation, it could lead to all out war.

All of this will contribute to global inflation of energy prices.

How long will these crazy economic times continue ? Well, we might ask why the Great Depression lasted 15 years. The answer is FDR tried to micro manage the economy rather than just letting the market sort things out.

ff.org

Biden is already taking the same road as FDR with Trillion dollar spending bills, selective loan forgiveness, destruction of the domestic oil industry, and regulating everything in sight, invoking the CoVid Emergency as his justification for over riding the constitution.

German inflation just went over 10% for the first time since WWII. With their energy situation, it’s only going to get worse. They are chopping down hundreds of acres of ancient, virgin forest for firewood. The green revolution. No nukes !

I'm not an economist and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I can't see how Europe is not going to be in big trouble with energy prices over the winter. Now that we have a global economy, it will probably have some effect on the economy here.

A Gas Utility serving Northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont just announced a 25% price increase as we do not import enough Canadian gas and have to compete with Europe now for LNG. Way to go Democrats.

I just returned from Germany, and they are scared as to how their poor will heat their homes this winter. And that was before gas pipelines got blown up.

Ironically, for a country that tried so hard to go "green," they're going to rely on coal and wood this winter.

Tetradon stick to talking about hoes and stay away from politics.

Thank capitalism for the crisis

Were you just in Germany, Pimpy? Did you just speak to a number of Germans about this crisis, Pimpy? Have you done any reading outside socialist websites about this issue, Pimpy?

Shut the fuck up when the adults here are talking.

It's not clear to me how Europe, and particularly Germany, was so gung-ho about "going green" if they still had to import massive amounts of fossil-fuels from Russia (not to mention Russia is not known for extracting fossil-fuels in the most environmentally friendly way) - seems a lot of Europe's "green economy" was GINO (green in name only) and thus mostly virtue-signalling; not to mention how many people likely got rich from making Germany/Europe go down that nonsensical-path.

@Papi, to say nothing of those who want America to follow the same path.

Hey, California (and Mass) are banning sales of ICE cars after 2035. The state that can't produce enough power as is and is telling residents not to charge EVs at certain times. What a shit show.

This "green agenda" looks mostly to be a power/money grab

EU nations have already states they will assist in purchasing energy for their population in order to keep things affordable. Sort of like printing money, which is what the UK just did when they repurchased a shit ton of bonds this week in order to suppress interest rates. They will eventually pay for this into the future by taxing and levying more debt for future generations to pay, but for the temporary short term future the governments will be buying gas and energy to offset price increases. No doubt they’re going to pay for it, but instead spread out those costs over the future with its bond buying programs. Most European countries will be assisting their population one way or another.

SkiDumb, how do you bring about Freddie Mac when it’s the Bureau of Labor department. WTF? Lawyers must have different reading comprehension skills. Or else you’re too high to read and comprehend at the same time? Democrats definitely want to control the demand side of things and making it more difficult with interest rates rising, yet it has stopped a lot of demand from the markets squashing nflatiinfromfoing higher. Inflation peaked 3 months ago and is continuing downward trajectory since less people are buying (less demand).

Gas prices are about to go up.

The Biden administration has launched a full-scale pressure campaign in a last-ditch effort to dissuade Middle Eastern allies from dramatically cutting oil production, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The push comes ahead of Wednesday’s crucial meeting of OPEC+, the international cartel of oil producers that is widely expected to announce a significant cut to output in an effort to raise oil prices. That in turn would cause US gasoline prices to rise at a precarious time for the Biden administration, just five weeks before the midterm elections.

Matye you are by far too fucking stupid to spend time responding to your posts, which actually say nothing. Inflation isn't going down an you are Joe Biden clone.

^^ hey SkiDumb, even you have to be proud of Biden pardoning over 100,000 people charged with marijuana possession. Biden’s yo daddy!!

FYI: I didn’t vote for him either, but that was a pretty cool pardon even for you to admit.

Biden just pardoned 100,000 drug dealers. No one goes to jail for possession stupid. They pled to a lesser charge to avoid a mandatory. I oppose his pardon of criminals.

Duly noted on the correct amount pardoned is only 6,500. I conflated that with another report. Note I said “conflated” and not inflated. Two separate terms. Inflation is not going up.

The pardon only opens the door to federal legalization which every good dope smoking hippie will agree with. The feds can classify marijuana differently.

Still waiting for inflation to drop....

As far as marijuana goes. It should be legalized every where. It's idiotic for someone to go to jail for something legal across a state line

If Republicans take the house and senate, they could do some good by reducing authorization of all sorts of wasteful government spending. Will they have the balls to do that ? Recent history suggests no.

Credit card debt just hit new all time highs at just over $1.15 trillion, erasing all the post-covid credit card deleveraging, just in time for those credit card APRs to hit record highs!

This suggests that a lot of people have exhausted their savings, leaving credit card debt as the only way to provide necessities for their family.

Legalizing weed is a state issue, despite the fact some communities cannot follow any laws. There is no such thing as a successful civilization that exalts the failure.

No, America is not coming back. The economy sucks by design. The ruling elite win either way.

Biden pretends he's pardoning 6,500 "low-level" or "simple possession" marijuana inmates in federal prison (as well as 1000s more with convictions in the majority-Black city of DC) when in fact in most cases their federal charges meant they crossed state lines as drug traffickers & many had associated gun charges as part of their arrests.

These aren’t casual users with a few grams. These are dealers, many affiliated with cartels.

I thought this was a site to review strip clubs and offer one another good advice to have the best experiences at such clubs. I am dedicated to that mission as I feel men like us have to take back control of this game in this country. When compared to Latin America and Eastern Europe, the men here get robbed and I want us to change that. So, on that note, I don't understand threads like this one. Though an interesting topic about which I am quite familiar, why are we talking about this on Tuscl?

What size was the gun pointed at your head, forcing you to read this thread ?

Have you posted a list of topics you will allow on this forum

i don't see a problem, the last time i looked this thread is in the politics forum. not interested in it don't click on it, it's easy to avoid.

Chill guys, I'll accept that. I really was just asking. These threads and topics are actually quite interesting and insightful, just never clicked on any nonclub related ones.

According to a new poll from Issues & Insights/TIPP, the number of Americans who are worried about Joe Biden’s mental health has jumped from 59 percent to 64 percent in the last two months. That’s nearly two-thirds of Americans thinking he’s mentally not well. Most of that increase has come from Democrats, who may finally be getting it.

I'm curious if Putin will have to be assassinated or resign for the Ukraine war to end. Until that happens energy is going to be a problem globally.

I'm tired of Putinflation. Dark Brandon needs to take him out.

Inflation is primarily being caused by the 40% increase in the money supply between 2020 and 2022 to pay for the Democrats overspending. There were three giant stimulus bills totaling 6 trillion dollars and 5 trillion dollars was printed up to help pay for it. Blaming Putin, Covid, supply chain interruptions, computer chip shortages (yes, I actually heard that), or greedy corporations is an attempt to deflect the blame from where it belongs. To stop inflation, you need to stop the money printing and to stop the money printing you need to stop the overspending. Americans love the idea of the government giving them stuff and don't want the overspending to stop. Therefore, they like pretending to themselves the overspending isn't eventually leading to high inflation.

When politicians spend money, they take credit for it as it came out of their own pocket. The true cost of this spending is often hidden until well after the politician retires.

I just read an article about how federal regulators buy stock in the companies they regulate. How is that not illegal ?

@Mark, ask Nancy and Paul Pelosi about that.

Inflation is popping again. This time, wholesale prices up. marketwatch.com

The supply chain is getting more fucked. usatoday.com

The Fed Funds rate is going to hit at least 5%, likely more, to cool it down. Government spending is going to get overwhelmed by debt service costs. The stock market is going to keep dropping.

@OP, time to cut your losses on inflation predictions.

I'm approaching retirement age and have never run across racial tension in a strip club.

I travel a ton and go into all kinds of bars solo a lot in strange towns. People in small towns tend to be a bit tribal. That is, if you are a stranger walking into a bar full of regulars, the bar will get quiet while you are checked out. This can happen in big cities too where bars have a bunch of regulars.

La Crosse Wisconsin is one place that sticks in my mind where all were wary until I talked a bit too the bartender at a small bar and told him some of my reason for being in town. Once accepted all were friendly.

I went into a bar just outside of Detroit to grab dinner and have a couple of drinks. I was the only non-black person in the bar. After a bit all were friendly here as well.

I'm hispanic and was a bit worried the first time I went to Alabama. The people were the nicest people I've run across in all my travels. White or Black.

I think it's more about how you carry yourself that will lead to how you are treated. That being said, there has been racial tensions in the US for a long time. Think Jets and Sharks. This is usually perpetuated by young gang members, not individuals.

I don't know how I ended up in the wrong thread. The comment above was meant for Muddy's thread on Racial tension. Not even drunk!

Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level. However, that’s not the bad news in this data. While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables. Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables. Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest? This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

That inflation keeps dropping like a stone. 14 months ago, I paid $4.29 for a loaf of bread. Yesterday it was $6.00. Post some more ignorant inane bullshit Mate.

Inflation is 3% higher directly because of Mr. Putin's war in the Ukraine, direct NATO involvement would end this war pretty quickly, and have the effect of reducing inflationary costs within a year, food cost's would come down quickly, fuel costs would drop quickly, and the renewed trade growth would, put enough pressure on China to slow their expansionary aims in the South China Sea, and force them to rein in the North Koreans. So if you want to see inflation brought under control, pressure our government to increase the pressure on the Russians, maybe give the Ukrainians some longer range weapons to inflict some real pain on the Russians which would benefit the entire world.

^If I were trying to start a nuclear war, this would be the blueprint.

^ That's only if you believe the Russians have equipment that works, so far they haven't shown us they have any capabilities to do much, except treat their soldiers as cannon fodder. As much as Putin alludes to his nuclear capabilities, makes me believe those capabilities don't actually exist.

Total consumer debt increased by $32.2 billion in August, an 8.3% increase on an annual basis. That was well above the $24 billion projection.

apple.news

Another media print pointing out the obvious with regards to inflation. Don’t be too late to the game, scaredy cats!!

Huge rally on the inflation news today.... Dow up 1200, S&P up 5%. Inflation down from 8.2% to 7.7%, the first time it's been below 8% since February.

Americans will be eagerly awaiting the House Republican bill to reduce inflation. But if the trend continues into 2023, Biden may end up getting some or most of the credit.

cnbc.com

By the way it should be calling it disinflation, but it’s semantics for the most part. Housing and transportation (cars) are dropping like a rock, but other things like energy and food along with healthcare and travel will remain high. Goods are dropping and services are picking up, except for strip clubbing. Those girls are fighting over who to give lap dances to, and the veteran PLs have told me it’s becoming like fish in the barrel to take girls otc if yiu have an established rapport with a dancer.

About this time every year I enter the coverage gap on Medicare part D drug coverage due to the high cost of my COPD inhaler. In past years this has doubled my cost for the inhaler up to $107 month. This year the manufacturer raised its prices and the new cost to me is now $167 month.

Thanks Biden!

^^ case in point regarding healthcare. That industry has always outpaced inflation for decades, just like tye cost of getting an education.

reuters.com 14 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it expects a "significant" decline in U.S. inflation next year due to easing in supply chain constraints, a peak in shelter inflation and slower wage growth.

The U.S. lender on Sunday forecast core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) –– the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation –– falling to 2.9% by December 2023 from 5.1% currently.

The forecast comes as Fed governor Christopher Waller warned over the weekend that the central bank may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to lower inflation.

Inflation is coming down, not “ like a rock “, but slowly. It’s over 7% now. It might be 5% next spring. It might be 3% AFTER the the 2023 recession, job losses, and home foreclosures.

Since 3 months ago, when Mate declared inflation will “ drop like a rock”, it has gone down by 1%. That’s a pretty small rock.

Yes, inflation is going down. Yes, the supply chain is being fixed. Yes, demand is dropping for discretionary items but Food and Energy are still being hit hard.

Should the Fed still be aggressively raising rates ? No, they’ve already slowed demand enough. But, these things take months before their effect is fully seen. Another year of pain is guaranteed.

It was the analyst’s prediction that I copied and pasted for readers to think forward, not in hindsight which is what the cpi reports were giving us, and this is quite important for equities to calm the fears we have regarding investment portfolios. You’re welcome for bringing this topic to light, for which I knew several grown men would get super emotional About when they read it. See comments above per emotional factor. Again, you’re welcome!

apple.news

Expert predictions about inflation for 2023 Over the weekend, analysts from Goldman Sachs forecast that one key measure of inflation — the core price consumption expenditures index, or core PCE — could drop to 2.9% by the end of 2023. Core inflation is different from headline inflation. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices, which tend to swing more frequently and dramatically than other prices. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on core PCE inflation, and targets a level of 2% in a healthy economy. (To make it even more confusing — these numbers are different from inflation measured via the consumer price index, or CPI, which came in at 7.7% on an annual basis in October, down from 8.2% in September.) Right now, core PCE is at 5.1%. Goldman’s experts expect that number to drop as supply chain constraints improve, rental price growth slows down, and wage growth slows down, too. Those three factors are signs the economy is on its way back to a healthier state. Other experts agree, though some are more optimistic than others

More I told you so news!!

"Core inflation excludes food and energy prices, which tend to swing more frequently and dramatically than other prices"

Great, those of us who don't eat or drive have it made.

tuscl.net

Oh yeah, did I mention that I told you so? Today’s most updated report, which I accurately called last summer. You’re welcome!

Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen tells @CBSNews stream prime time the US is probably past peak inflation but to hit Fed target of 2% is likely a “two to three year path” + US is more likely than not to experience “mild” recession 2023

As of December 2022, incomes adjusted for inflation have dropped 21 months in a row. Credit card debt is close to passing a trillion dollars, which would be the highest level in history. At some point in the very near future people will have to alter their lifestyles and reduce spending. When that happens, the country will go into a serious recession. That is likely to lead to a financial crisis worse than the one in 2008.

In response to this, the Fed will likely abandon its policy of increasing interest rates and high inflation will resume. There will be a great deal of political pressure on them to keep the country from going into Great Depression II and they are likely to cave into that pressure. Volcker and Reagan resisted that political pressure in the early eighties in a similar situation, but this is a different era. We have Powell and Biden now, neither of which are likely to have the political courage to do the same.

Interest rates are the price of borrowing money. The best long-term course would be to let the market set interest rates just as it sets other prices, but our current governing elites won't allow that.

^^ well, here is what the (bond) market is telling us. 10 year yield is at 3.364% and the overnight funds rate will soon be 4.75%! We know the crystal ball says things have to change for the near term to match up to the long term, because markets typically don’t lie! What scenario leads you to believe the 5 and 10 year yield goes above 4.75%? Not gonna happen and whatever “fed mandate” of 2% was always just some made up # they stated to justify their actions. Inflation was over since the summer of ‘22, and I told you so! apple.news

@Mate: Momentary dips do not signal inflation busting - just momentary dips. The last time we had inflation this high, in the 70s, wage inflation was the number one driver of price inflation over time. Until we solve the labor market issues, we will not have a permanent solution to the inflation problem.

Have the labor markets loosened? Has the federal government stopped pouring shitloads of money into the economy (like through the Infrastructure bill that is finally just disbursing into the private sector)? Have we stopped paying people NOT to work via Obamacare and food stamp transfers?

No? Then why are we talking about inflation being gone?

It may slow down a bit in certain sectors. It did so at times in the 70s too in response to Fed actions. But it always reared its ugly head again when the Fed took its foot off the gas. Until we do enough to stamp out the underlying conditions causing the inflation, it will continue to simmer under the surface, popping up in response to the slightest challenge. Until we solve the labor market issues that are driving continued wage growth, serious long-term reductions in inflation are unlikely.

Only an ignorant bitch would think inflation is over.

Massive systemic and structural change has begun in the world and will play out over the next 5 to 10 years.

China is collapsing, not just as an economy but as a nation.

Sanctions have put the Russian economy on a glide path to failure.

Europes business model, which relied on cheap Russian energy and the US paying for their defense, is no longer workable.

Global trade, along with the concept of globalization, is declining rapidly.

Onshoring of jobs is at a historic pace in the US and Mexico.

The era of zero interest rates is over. Companies with business models that relied on zero interest will fail.

In 10 years, the world will look very different than it does now. Inflation is just a byproduct of these changes.

In 5-10 years, the only survivors will be Carls Jr, Starbucks and Fuddruckers as was foretold

Ah, yes the labor markets are taking a hit. They just need to report the complete story…… apple.news

The Labor Market The evidence that a Recession has begun is evident except in the traditional measures of the labor market. We suspect that the unemployment rate has been sticky due to labor hoarding after a couple of years of insufficient labor supply. Instead of shedding employees, firms are adjusting to the Recessionary climate by aggressively slashing the workweek and overtime (see charts). In addition, the headlining Payroll Survey doesn’t distinguish between full- and part-time jobs. That data is found in the Household Survey, and December’s report confirmed a 670K+ move to part-time work. An almost daily occurrence, of late, is a headline about layoffs especially in the tech world (i.e., America’s growth industry). Some examples: AmazonAMZN: -18,000 Alphabet (Google): -12,000 Meta (Facebook): -11,000 MicrosoftMSFT: -10,000 Salesforce: -7,000 The list goes on.

^ It's not nearly enough yet. Yes some tech companies are laying off now, as are some investment banks. But overall wage growth is still an issue, especially in services sectors. A lot of the who were laid off in the finance sector did not stay unemployed for long.

We need to feel a lot more pain before we break the back of inflation, like a serious decline in the demand for goods and services and widespread layoffs. The Fed needs to keep bringing the pain, but the question is whether they have the political will to do so.

I’d agree with yiu if wage growth kept pace with inflation, like it did in the 70’s and 80’s when unions had greater strength in enforcing wages keeping up with inflation. That’s just not the case today. Real Wages are declining as the increases we are seeing are only up 5% yoy, much lower than the inflation rate yoy. If we were to see the 5 and 10 year bond rate at 5%, we would have longer term inflation to worry about, but as noted they are at 3.5%. Markets are better predictors than tuscl members.

Wage growth did NOT keep pace with inflation in the 70s and 80s. It always lagged inflation, which is precisely why it was so harmful to blue collar workers and caused so much misery. But the problem is that it becomes part of a spiral, one feeding the other in an endless loop. Wages increases get baked into everything we buy - a phenomenon called a wage-price spiral.

The only way to break the back of a wage-price spiral is to slow the economy down enough that unemployment rises substantially and demand dramatically declines. Basically a reboot. Otherwise all we are doing is temporarily suppressing inflation until one bump in the road causes it to come roaring back.

^^ rong! It has already been well established per this Reuters article that unions had it built in their contracts that wages adjusted for inflation during the 70’s and 80’s, and now that unions have basically weakened in #s, we aren’t seeing wages keep up with inflation. It’s not me saying this, it’s history and it’s a fact, which is why today is way different than then.

reuters.com

Oh, I forgot to say “I told you so!”

Back in 2000 our national debt was just over $5 trillion after over 200 years as a nation. Since then we have added over $25 trillion in debt and we now owe over $31 trillion.

^ I understand the differences Mate. Yes, union contracts were part of the problem back then. But the labor market is so damned tight right now in the services sector that it has given employees almost the same power to continuously push their wages up. We can thank never-ending Obamacare subsidies and work requirement waivers for EBT for contributing to this. Until we hit the economy hard enough to put a damper on demand for goods and services and, by extension, employees, the wage growth issues will not abate.

With all the serious problems this country is facing, whether Trump or Biden were taking classified documents home with them seems like a nothingburger by comparison. It's like discussing the arrangement of the deck chairs on the Titanic when it is headed for an iceberg.

Taking classified documents home is a very big problem if they were being intentionally shared with the Chinese. The University of Penn think tank where many of the documents were found was funded by the Chinese. Biden was paid $900,000 for his involvement with the think tank even though he never taught a class, or any other work. Why did the Chinese pay him nearly a million dollars ?

apple.news

This article by Barron’s provides further support why my call last summer is correct, in turn leading to the most almighty “I told you so” in tuscl history! Money supply is actually starting to decrease.

^fucking douchebag who molests little boys named Matey.

Well all this talk about this guy says this and that guys says that, I still go by what Belichick says, 'I can only go by what I see'. What happens in the future and when remains to be seen but what I see is..

Gas price drastically jumped and peaked around $5 a gallon around a year ago and slowly came down to slightly below $3 a gallon around a month ago but since then have jumped up again, over 60 cents a gallon in the past month. Home energy costs, gas and electricity went up the past year and prices have remained high. Grocery prices are at an all time high, restaurant prices have gone up and haven't come down. Home appliance prices are at an all time high. Home improvement prices on lumber etc

duh, posted before I was done.

Anyway, I don't know and don't claim to know what the future holds and no matter what others say, what regarding what affects my life inflation is still going strong.

'with' regarding

Now that 2 bits (Twentyfive) has joined the bandwagon throwing peanuts from the stupid peanuts gallery like other ignoramuses, here’s some facts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you can read and do simple math, add up the “All Items” column for the months of June-December of 2022. It is less than 1%, which is annualized at less than 2%, well within the acceptable level the federal reserve wants us to be at. You’re welcome, and I told you so!

bls.gov

Bandwagon really, reading comprehension is definitely not one of your strong points either, everyone has tried to explain to you, the speed at which inflation is increasing is all that has slowed down, inflation has not dropped like a rock, or even a Chinese Weather Balloon, you really are doubling down on stupid

^ God yuu are fat and stupid! When inflation was running over 8.5% in august and now it is below 2% annual rate since then, that IS dropping like a rock. You better check your reading skills because I don’t know what part of that equation doesn’t equal inflation dropping like a rock in a mere 6 months. Fat and stupid really is no way to go through life 2 bits!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has quietly revised much of its recent inflation figures upward, suggesting the optimistic figures were deceptive

mishtalk.com

Dropping like a rock, leading to deflation:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 0.5% increase in prices over the past month, an acceleration from the prior reading, government data showed Tuesday. On an annual basis, CPI rose 6.4%, continuing a steady march down from a 9.1% peak last June.

Good one! I see the main reason (up to 40%)for this month’s print is still shelter costs with a big lag on the readings. As the months tick by it will drop, as everyone knows the new leases are dropping. A member on here also coined the term “momentary blips”. Anyho, glad you’re still paying attention. It shows you’ll learn the outcomes eventually.

apple.news Of course SkiDumb will think it’s an Apple News article….. Rent Shelter costs, which account for about 40% of the core inflation increase, rose 7.9% over the past year. Rent costs jumped 8% and hotels/motels 8.5% on an annual basis.

New leases are lower, and renters are leaving their apartments and going to places with lower affordability, except in Manhattan. We see this all over the Phx metro which lead the nation 2022 in shelter increases.

The whole point of this exercise is to analyze the smoky mirrors. The original intent wasn’t to say there is no inflation. Duh, or course it is, but it’s such a faulty representation of what is actually happening on the ground. Have fun!

===> "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 0.5% increase in prices over the past month, an acceleration from the prior reading, government data showed Tuesday."

You did read this piece guys, right? That is compared with 0.1% in December. That was not a good one month reading. Worse, it came from the three areas that consume the most household income - housing, energy and food. If it runs like that for the next 11 months then the 2023 annual inflation rate would come in at almost 6.2%.

This tells us that inflationary pressures are still unacceptably high and that the inflation dragon has not been slain, but just waits for any ease up to rear its ugly head. As I have said time and again in this thread, the Fed is doing just enough to temporarily suppress it, but not nearly enough to kill it.

The counter point is that it hasn’t even been one year since the fed started raising rates in March of 2022, and it takes 12-18 months to have those affects take hold. Again, shelter costs make up a large portion so have we all become renters? Short term rates will go from 25 bps up to 488 bps in one year once the fed meets next month.

The drops in inflation are never linear, and I believe you Dugan commented on “momentary blips”. The seasonal #s seen after the holidays with jobs and January incomes resetting due to employers giving raises contribute to the distortions. By the way, this was the first inflation report in 5 months that didn’t come in better than expected! If we have another blowout jobs report in March and an even higher CPI next month, which we won’t, then yiu may have a case to make. Until then, the distortions from the gauges are what’s important. Volley never raised short term rates 475 bps in one year, and this isnt the 70’s or 80’s. Incomes aren’t even keeping up with inflation.

In other words, don’t believe those pesky inflation figures. Only Mate can be trusted to interpret their real meaning.

In other words Mark, you’re another guy stuck in the past. It hasn’t even been a year since rate increases started, and when the April CPI comes out you will see the rate of increase from October 2022 (prior 6 months) will be under 3%, and then another round of “I told you so!”

When will inflation “drop like a rock” ?

When will deflation kick in ?

I think I’ll start a thread predicting a blizzard in Honolulu. I’ll keep posting on it explaining why I’m right for as many months/years as it takes.

Again if reading comprehension was a strength of your Mark, you’d see who made the “leading to deflation” comment. No worries tho, do markets lie? Equities are up 8% year to date and even higher since August. The 10 year bond is 100 bps lower than the overnight short term fed rate, but I guess I will make a thousand conspiracy theories in hopes that one of them are right, correct? Stay focused and targeted, it’ll make you much more productive as a human.

It snows on top of Haleakala volcano pretty much every year. That’s why I said Honolulu.

===> "In other words Mark, you’re another guy stuck in the past." That's because past lessons are just as applicable today. For example, when you flood the economy with gobs of M2 Money Supply, inflation spikes. When it goes on for too long and triggers a wage price spiral (this time helped by by government policies which continue to sideline able bodies workers), inflation becomes sticky. Once inflation grows deep roots, the only way to kill it is to move the Fed Funds rate well above the inflation level.

Rinse, repeat. As should be obvious by now, the lessons of the past are just as applicable today as they were the last time this nonsense happened.

As far as your notion that the rate hikes have yet to bear fruit, hogwash. Mortgage rates have already long since adjusted, credit card interest rates have moved up, fixed income products have long since become more attractive again, etc., etc. The problem is one of magnitude. They aren't doing enough to crush demand quickly enough. Demand for services continues to be high, no doubt because labor market tightness continues to pad paychecks. Even mortgage applications are back on the rise.

IMO a soft landing is just not possible under these circumstances. Only a cold hard reboot will pop the asset and demand bubbles enough to slacken labor markets and allow us to reset. I think that Powell actually knows this, but has no intention of plunging the economy into a recession before the next election. Expect an epiphany in about 19 months from now.

The money supply has shrunk over the last year. Too bad I can’t find a link to add to one of many already listed, but it’s been stated over and over that the supply has shrunk since the summer of ‘22, hence my reasons for making the investing community aware to not fear all the false reporting inflation numbers we have been seeing since. Month to month since June of over 9.1% will turn into 2-3% by the time August ‘23 rolls around. If not then equities would have sunk instead of rise, and the 10 year yield would be over 5%. None of those things happened.

The money supply dipped ever so slightly. By historical standards we still have gobs of money sloshing around in the system. The federal infrastructure money is finally pouring into the system and the federal government keeps doubling down on transfer payments, with heavy deficit spending continuing in the process. Some states are jumping in on the act too.

Meanwhile, the labor markets are still absurdly tight, inflation came in at .5% for January and retail sales just jumped 3% in January.

The Fed is tightening too little and too slowly to kill inflation, especially when government fiscal policies are working against the Fed's efforts. But Arthur Burns, er, I mean Jerome Powell, doesn't have the stones to do what's really needed.

tradingeconomics.com

I wonder the accuracy of what you’re saying Dugan, because this chart shows a 10% decrease in M2 (money supply) since January of 2022. Volcker never raised the overnight funds over 450 bps in one year like Powell has. Sadly, I think most of the blame for fiscal irresponsibility lies during Trump’s tenure, and I say that even though I voted for him twice.

The jobs sector is tightest among low paying services and hospitality positions, not the high paying demanding places professionals seek. It’s why they will always remain a demand for low paying jobs, because nobody wants to do them. The tech/finance sector has shed over 100,000 jobs this past year, which is equal to about 500,000 lowly employed leisure/service paid positions. Jobs report blowout #s are just smoke and mirrors. Money supply is dropping and so is inflation. But yiu keep talking tough until you figure it out, Magic Man Dugan. Rotflmfao!!

m.youtube.com

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday released its annual budget and economic outlook forecasting federal finances over the next 10 years, which projects that the national debt will be about $20 trillion higher a decade from now.

That’s an increase from $30 Trillion to $50 Trillion. Just exactly how can inflation drop if we are adding $2 Trillion of debt every year ?

Whoops, I rad the rong column. More like 4% decrease, but any way if we are talking forecasts like Mark is then I have no doubt it will be a decrease of 10% by the end of this year with the way trends are going. We all know how reliable forecasts are, right??

If the debt increases $2 Trillion a year, funded by the government printing money, how does the money supply go down ? Either the Congressional Budget Office or Mate is right.

U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.7% in January to mark the biggest gain since last summer, offering further proof that inflation is sticky and unlikely to decline rapidly.

Price increases were attributed to 0.6% of that rise from shelter/rental costs, which lag 12 months. Did everyone suddenly become renters? Good thing is that going forward those numbers will pull the rate down like a led balloon, as new rents from Zillow and other real time sources are seeing falling renewal rates.

Have I told you lately “I told you so”?

apple.news

“Wholesale prices decline, PPI shows, and show prices dropping .1%”

Anyway, the real time data hasn’t even shown up with drop in shelter. Just wait until the 12 month lag in rents start coming, tgen a whole new set of “I told you so” will fuel the angst towards Mark, SkiDumb, 2-bits, and Tricky Rickyboi! Every reading from here on out will continue to drop after I called the top in summer of ‘22. Your welcome!

Too bad your reading comprehension doesn’t match the pronouncements you made. Inflation still hasn’t dropped like a rock, the only thing that’s happened is the growth of inflation has slowed. You really need to score the touchdown before you take the victory lap, and from the looks of things you scored at the wrong end of the field. SMH

The Fed is at a crossroads. Keep raising rates to fight inflation, triggering a banking crisis, or pause and watch inflation spike.

Anyone willing to bet against me that the new annual interest rate (paid semi-annual) the fed puts out for its stated inflation rate starting in May ‘23 will be at 3% or lower? I will take anybody who has the guts to back their pie hole with the actual #s that report from August ‘22 to April ‘23, and I will bet it will be 3% or less, anything higher and you win. To clairify, new purchases would only get around 1.5% for the first 6 months on a variable rate purchase made, which is 3% or less as an annual rate from the last 6 months time period. We only need to wait until the end of April to find out. apple.news

Told you so! We can even wait until September of ‘23 for a full yoy assessment if you wish, although you’d be handicapping yourself if you took that bet!

So, when you predicted that inflation would drop like a rock, you meant it would be lower in a year or two. And, for making this prediction, you view yourself as an economic genius. Talk about moving the goalpost.

Biden just released a budget that will bring the national debt to 50 trillion dollars in a decade. For the upcoming year, government spending will be 7 trillion dollars and tax receipts will be 5.2 trillion.

The gap between spending and tax receipts will be covered by borrowing. The debt will be monetized by the Fed printing up money and buying government bonds. This will be inflationary. If the government has to print more money to bail out collapsing banks, as is likely, the situation will be even worse. You can look for higher inflation in the future.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Oh yeah, this is the thread when I made the call last summer, and since then I have been spot on! Wait until we get the cpi #s in September of ‘23. Because all figures are backwards readings of the prior 12 months, you’re going to see more “I told you so” coming into the pipeline, throwing it into the faces of all ritards who dare to refute my accurate predictions. You’re welcome!

apple.news These items have dropped dramatically in price over the past 10 months, since I made my inflation call. Sorry two bits and your butt buddy SkiDumb, but I told you so!

You stupid fucking asshole, your original post claimed there would be rate cuts. You are such a little cunt. Inflation is still a problem and the inflation reduction act made it worse, not better. You can say I told you so all you want, but you were wrong then, wrong now and wrong always. God your parents must hate you.

^^Husband, Son, Sibling, Friend, Skier, Gambler, Swinger, Golfer, Foodie, Traveller, but most of all I smoke Ghost Train Haze.

Well, this explains a lot within your profile. You really should stop to assess yourself, but as we can see from all your ritarded posts that comprehension and analysis is not your forte, old man!

The yield curve has been inverted for a year. That has been a sign in the past of a coming recession. Most banks now are insolvent so when the recession hits, they will start collapsing. It will be Silicon Valley and Signature bank multiplied by a hundred. The Fed will print up a lot of money to rescue them, as happened in 2008, and that will lead to the eventual return of high inflation.

Biden will be running for reelection during a deep recession. By then, it will also be obvious that the Ukraine war is just another endless quagmire like Vietnam or Afghanistan. The Wall Street Journal reported last weekend that officials in the Biden administration knew the Ukrainians didn't have the weapons or training to succeed in their counter-offensive. They pushed for it anyway, the same way a gambler keeps placing bets hoping he finally gets lucky.

Ritarded? jesus fucking christ you're a moron.

Using the US Dept of Labor Statistics’ webpage “inflation calculator”, the total CPI increase during the Biden admin 1/21-6/23 is the same as for 1/12-1/21. So 18% increase in 30 months, versus in 108 months. Comparing only year-to-year percentages misses the forest for the trees. The Biden years have left a huge hole, and it doesn’t go away. Purchasing power, and savings/accumulated wealth, are forever impaired disproportionately. And docsavage is right, the more money they borrow or print (or “forgive”/defer/grant/etc.), the worse it will get. And that’s pretty much all the Dems got, to buy favor (& votes) from the peeps. (Well, that and the specter of Trump…)

The stage for catastrophic inflation was set during the Obama years with massive amounts of quantitative easing. Then, millions of free dollars were given away during COVID while people were unable to spend it. Some liberals will want to blame Trump, but it was mostly the Democrat Party congress. Then, with Biden's sheer incompetence, the dike finally failed and inflation ran out of control. The Fed just raised rates, and has indicated more will come. Biden's solution? Outlawing gas stoves.

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Some would ask if I get tired of being right all the time, as proof from the latest PCE #s released causing stock market to rise to near record levels. Another “I told you so” to all the curmudgeonly nay sayers, and u know who u R!

Another Apple News user?! No. Just no.

The app is so convenient.

Stupid people adore convenience. We have the highest grossing movies now, not because more people go or more tickets are sold, but because inflation made them cost more making the figure meaningless. Just like near the stock market at near record levels by ignoring inflation: Pablum for the ill educated.

“Pablum for the ill educated”^

I was right and you were rong, so what camp do you think you fit in, SkiDumb? This whole transcript proves it. Sorry, not sorry, but I told you so!

Wrong then. Wrong now. Wrong always. Just a fucking penniless loser fronting. Buh bye busta.