OT: Your opinion on the economy
Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
B) we'll be going sideways for a while; no major downturn or upturn
C) the worst is yet to come
D) other
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B) we'll be going sideways for a while; no major downturn or upturn
C) the worst is yet to come
D) other
51 comments
The price of used tractor-trailer trucks have doubled since 2019. There is still a significant driver shortage and demand is higher than pre-pandemic levels.
I don’t think the worst is behind us.
Btw, we always donate overseas. Is any country donating to us for hurricane Ida?
- let governments accumulate trillions in debt
- kept money losing corporations in business long after they should have died
- kept unemployment low
- funded ridiculous green energy subsidies
For 70 years, the American military enforced safe global trade and reduced the regional border conflicts. The US has decided it is no longer in its interest to do this. This is already affecting the energy and food global markets.
For 20 years, corporations sent all their manufacturing work to China, shutting down domestic manufacturing.
This is all ending. It will take 5 years to transition to a new economic model. In the US , it will be painful and chaotic. In China, they will return to a pre-industrial economy and millions will starve.
Then when we do, debt service costs are going to spike, forcing us to cut back on government spending, including defense, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
The left is going to realize how little we give a shit about green this and that and LGBTQKFCDDT!@?+ when we don't have basic needs met.
Maybe the biggest threat is politicians whose main talking points are things like MTF transexual school teachers in another country who don't wear bras. Their real agenda is policies that will pauperize more and more people, and the pauperized people may turn one or the other fringe minority into a majority.
For 30 - 40% of people, the worst came and stayed many decades ago. But it probably won't get bad enough for them that they'll decide to burn it all down.
The only reason people don't seem bothered by the disastrous economy is post-Covid euphoria. They are so happy to be back to normal they aren't yet noticing how big a disaster we're in. They will.
The problem is that someone let the inflation genie out of the bottle. So things are costing more. I dont' think that is gonna change under the current administration.
B, will reign since most of the downturn already took place and near markets generally run 9-16 months, and we are already 9 months into this down market engineered by the fed. Globally if we want to do business with other countries our currency has to float downward so other can afford to do business with us=monetary loosening (decreased rates) by the end of next year 2023. Shipping containers for freight have dropped and demand for goods has slowed considerably. The fed engineered slowdown has reduced demand, slowing inflation at a remarkable pace which won’t show in the lagging reports until later this year, but slowly starting this month on October 13th. By the way, the inflation numbers have been declining for last 3 months with shelter making up nearly 1/3rd of the inflation index those numbers will start to show the reduction soon. Summarize, the market has really started to balance itself and once certainty starts to shine then the economic market will be off to the races by early 2023, maybe even later this fall. People forget that whatever they are hearing or reading in the news are coming from journalists, not business minded people so the news you’re hearing is overhyped in order to attract eyeballs so they can sell advertising.
To what they’re going to do today let alone see far enough into the future, then the answers will depend on a persons mindset.
Within the next year or by the end of 2023 we will see good progress in equity markets, but they tend to be future indicators so the job market will slow beginning next year. Those who have jobs will be OK.
Short-term economic trends miss the overall point. The US sucks today whether the brainwashed sheep realize it or not. This is not our grandparents USA. The sheep want to be happy so they don't want to see it. This country sucks now. Neither party can save it.
TLDR, the ingenuity of our economy is missing from most people’s doom and gloom scenarios, such as the one I just provided.
I think the worst is to come. Inflation may slow down, but prices and interest rates won’t go down. The economy and stock market will be stagnant for a while and unemployment will increase. The only hope is a big change in D.C. to give optimism to businesses.
The recent inflation readings were not encouraging, which is not surprising. Our labor market is still way too tight, which continues to put upward pressure on wages, and electricity is expected to continue to rise in price due to natural gas shortages. Labor costs and energy bills are both universal expenses that feed into the prices of all of our goods and services and until we get those core expenses under control, we will not get inflation under control.
Right now the Fed is doing just enough to keep things from spiraling out of control, but not enough to make things materially better. What we need now is more Paul Volker but what we are getting is Arthur Burns. I fully expect the disingenuous pussy currently running the Fed to continue with the same tip toe playbook where he makes hawk like noises for the rubes who don't know better, but continues to be dovish in practice.
Until the Fed grows a pair hikes interest rates up enough to seriously quash demand for goods and services, our labor markets won't rebalance and demand for energy will continue to be high. So we can expect death by 1,000 cuts for some time to come, probably until Biden's re-election campaign is over. Then someone will finally administer the medicine needed, at great cost.
The Trump bubble was just hype, just like the 1920's, and the Reagan bubble was brought about by breaking OPEC by encouraging Iraq to attack Iran.
So the worst is yet to come, but I do not mean busts instead of the next bubble. That kind of stuff after all is not very important. I mean we have to learn to live with market demand never creating anything like full employment, but yet everyone needing to eat and be housed. And we cannot turn into a society which uses racism, classism, or the idea of mental illness, to write of a large portion of the population.
So big changes have to be made or there will just be incredible strife.
SJG
I went out to eat Friday night - restaurant packed.
I’ve been to 3 college football games this season in 3 different states, all sold out - each place at least 60,000 people tailgating beforehand.
I was out of the country twice this summer on vacation, crowdest I’ve ever seen it (including preCOVID) and that wasn’t COVID stimulus money funding these trips like it was last year.
Every single business I deal with is still “desperate” to hire new workers. I say “desperate” because they are in dire need, even as many anticipate a weak holiday season and/or slowed growth in the future.
I’d be a little nervous if I was working in real estate right now, but I read recently that lumber has gone back to pre COVID levels on pricing, maybe that will help new construction a little.
People are flipping out about interest rates, but right now they are the same as when I bought my first home back in the early 2000s and I was ecstatic to get that rate back then and people are flipping out today. People need to realize those sub 4% rates were a once in a lifetime opportunity, and even at 6% today historically that’s still a damn good rate compared to the last 40-50 years.
SJG
Much of the worst of the encampments were cleaned up with a new more conservative mayor, but it's still around if you look.
What's new is seeing armed guards in the super markets and big box retailers. That's developing world tier shit when you need men with guns in daily life to fend off chaos.
The Powers That Be don't like the current arrangement of the world. We are in the Great Reset. People are very good at composing stories of how something happened based on some random facts.
TPTB can't just pull the rug on everyone and make their changes, that would be risky and upsetting. They cant really do it because the real people in charge are not generally known.
So now they're breaking the old system to give us a new system. They're funny money is breaking. The new system they're aiming for will break middle class wealth, family allegiances, and religious allegiances. These things create power outside of their control.
Their only problem is that a fair amount of people have noticed their schemes and some of them aren't going as planned.
I'm going with C. They need to wipe out structural problems in the current financial system. The net effect will be a drastic reduction of the middle class. The rich will be better off than ever
So from me it’s an E, probably none of the above.
However we do know that German industry is going to hobbled for years with the loss of the Nordstreams and that is going to have a serious affect on the global economy.
The economic collapse of Europe may save the US from economic collapse as money and manufacturing is relocated there.
The real shock was seeing how young the Aurora street walkers were. It wasn't broken down old junkies out, it was very young girls with thousand yard stares. Sad scene.
Right LOL
PMs are the real world currency. Clown world only lasts as long as they can control the price of gold and silver. It looks like that is getting closer.
I also said the economy was good under the late Clinton years (i.e. tech bubble) and later Trump years because unlike Obama he got out of the way of recovery.
But interest rates are going to keep increasing, and with it debt service costs crimp government spending. To say nothing of geopolitical risks and unfucking our supply chains.
We're sick and need to take our bitter medicine. Then we get well.
The economy on the other hand is pretty strong, been to a restaurant or a club lately plenty of folks are spending on dinner and drinks, even the stores as much as they bellyache about not having enough help, they’re selling goods, sure some stuff has gotten crazy expensive but even that stuff is being purchased, my feeling is there’s a shift going on and expectations are somewhat different due to being locked down for two years, things just aren’t as bad as you think they are.
Interest rate hikes are going to hit that restaurant and club spending. That's what they're intended to do.
I believe the answer (like most on here do) is C, because it will be impossible for there to be a decision change that most people will find at least acceptable until everyone is in the same crappy boat together and nobody is in a situation to be doing well at the expense of another party.
1. Protect the country from external threats while enforcing a basic rule of law internally, or
2. Assure fairness and equity in all aspects of life
The country was founded, in reaction to an all-powerful monarchy, under the first theory. It has been trending, in fits and starts, toward the second theory. Half the country has now decided that government determined fairness is really tyranny by a false name. They’d like to return to the first view. Those in power are fighting like hell to keep the status quo.
My thought is the November elections could give the markets some momentum - and indirectly boost economic output - if republicans gain a majority. If the left picks up seats, it’s a flat or downward turn until 2024.