Virus mortality forecasts drop while the deep economic misery is just starting

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rickdugan
Verified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
A great article on what is already happening. It is just the tip of the iceberg if we don't start re-thinking these shutdowns.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-they-te…

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avatar for BBBC
BBBC
5 years ago
Aww, I miss playing bouncer with you too...
avatar for whodey
whodey
5 years ago
Pretty sure the limited interaction between people as a result of the stay at home orders is what has caused the biggest impact in projected number of fatalities. The early numbers assumed business as usual and therefore so many people getting sick at the same time and overwhelming the hospital system's capacity.

Hopefully we keep the orders in place long enough to get a handle on the virus because if we open things back up too quickly we will need another shut down soon to get back on track. It's rough right now, but it is better to have a 2-3 month shut down now instead of 6 weeks now followed by another 2-3 months later after things get out of hand again.
avatar for twentyfive
twentyfive
5 years ago
The article is hidden behind a paywall, but even so , my position would be very different if the POTUS in an effort to avoid blame at any cost, had made decisions about closing business down on his own instead of deference to the governor’s of each individual state, now no matter what he says there is no central authority that is making decisions. I personally don’t believe that the federal government will be able to enforce an opening of the economy.
avatar for Lone_Wolf
Lone_Wolf
5 years ago
Saw something today where an expert was saying flair ups are bound to happen until at least half the world's population has had it.

So, the decision is to keep the lockdown in place until a vaccine is mass produced which is untenable OR have mass exposure which is also untenable.

AG Barr said the erosion of personal liberties is becoming concerning. At some point, the onus will have to be placed back on individuals for decisions on safety.
avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan
5 years ago
===> "Hopefully we keep the orders in place long enough to get a handle on the virus because if we open things back up too quickly we will need another shut down soon to get back on track."

By all reports I'm seeing, that ship has sailed. It is here and all we are accomplishing now is temporary suppression. Perhaps if we had the centralized control and ability to aggressively compel testing and isolation in the early stages, ala S. Korea, then we might have been able to eradicate it. But the U.S. is a decentralized system with lots of civil liberties safeguards, so that was never really going to be an option.

So the only question is this: How long can we afford to suppress? We can't do this forever and any real answer, like a vaccine, is likely a long time away. Once the lockdowns are lifted, the number will go up.

At this stage we need to start thinking about more rational ways of protecting high risk people while letting others get back to their lives.
avatar for Lone_Wolf
Lone_Wolf
5 years ago
Is there really a choice though?

A third of renter's didn't pay last this month.

City, county, states have no tax revenue.

Postal service bankrupt.

The list is endless as to why this can't continue.
avatar for JamesSD
JamesSD
5 years ago
Probably we can start reopening some less essential businesses following social distancing. A lot of companies are starting to figure out how to at least function at 60 or 70 percent between remote and distancing.

On the other hand stuff like hospitality and tourism are probably screwed for a while. Same with theaters bars and yes strip clubs.
avatar for Subraman
Subraman
5 years ago
"So, the decision is to keep the lockdown in place until a vaccine is mass produced which is untenable OR have mass exposure which is also untenable. "

Agree. But a plan to set conditions for when and how to reduce the lockdowns, along with a well-coordinated effort (with the solid leadership that requires) to meet those conditions, it's what's required to break the stalemate you describe. As it is, we have an idea of what some of those conditions are -- e.g., testing and tracing at scale, after we've reached the peak (testing at scale does not mean all hundreds of millions of Americans need a test -- there are well known target groups). If Obama had claimed a month ago "anyone who needs a test, can get a test", and a month later this was not only not true but there was still no reliable prediction on when it might be true, and in addition he had powers he could invoke to change the path but refused to do so, the "open the economy" people would be going absolutely apeshit. Rightfully so -- this is a national emergency, the president is accountable for leading us out of it, and the achievable goal of "enough tests so that we can be ready for testing & tracing when it's time" is not there. In a way, the right's refusal to hold Trump accountable for this, and instead excuse it away, is sort of a right-wing version of the left's vapid virtue signaling.
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RandomMember
5 years ago
I read @Dugan's WSJ editorial and it's yet another take on "why are we shutting down the economy over something as lethal as the flu? The editorial points out that the latest government model predicts about 60K deaths, which is about the same as the 2018 flu season.

Thing is there's massive confusion as to what assumptions go into the government fatality models. Even the experts in the academic community, who were consulted for the study, don't know what assumptions go into the government model. For example, does the new 60K death toll estimate include social distancing? Nobody seems to know?

Can anyone here provide a link to an official government source detailing the assumptions that go into the government model? Because an *editorial* in the WSJ is no substitute. Otherwise, take the editorial with a grain of salt.

That's why you're better off following the likes of the New England Journal of Medicine or Johns Hopkins that publish transparent assumptions. At this point, I'm willing to believe that the overall case fatality rate of Covid-19 ( 0.1% ) is about the same as the flu. That number was reported by Fauci in NEJM. But we don't have a vaccine for Covid-19 and it's probably a lot more contagious than the flu. If the case fatality rate is 0.1% and half the US gets the disease that corresponds to about 170K deaths.

Dropping dead is not the only issue. Younger people recovering from Covid-19 appear to have lasting lung damage and it shows up on CT scans with a ground-glass signature. Autopsies also show the aggressive way Covid-19 attacks lung tissues. As it applies to my own behavior --with all the confusion --I'm not going to risk bringing death and destruction home for the chance of getting my rocks off.
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Subraman
5 years ago
I'd have more respect for the "open the economy right now"ers if they would have the courage to point to whom they think is accountable for setting up the conditions by which we exit the lockdown, point out where the shortcomings are, and hold that person accountable.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
@Subraman That's exactly what Trump did though, by deferring all important decisions like closing things down to the governors, he set this up in such a way he could say it's someone else's fault, and deny accountability.
avatar for BabyDoc
BabyDoc
5 years ago
^^^Are you really that blinded by your hate?

https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7133…

“Just curious three questions !
twentyfive
Posted March 16, 2020


2) Using the White House's Guidelines does anyone think that is going to be used as cover for a national
lockdown ?
…”
avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan
5 years ago
===> "I'd have more respect for the "open the economy right now"ers if they would have the courage to point to whom they think is accountable for setting up the conditions by which we exit the lockdown, point out where the shortcomings are, and hold that person accountable."

Funny. I was thinking that I'd have much more respect for the "keep everything on lockdown"ers if they had the: (1) awareness to understand that their soft circumstances are not universally enjoyed by all; (2) the wisdom and courage not to lash out for someone to blame every time another 80 year old dies from a contagious virus; and (3) the personal fortitude to tolerate a little risk for the greater good of millions.
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rickdugan
5 years ago
Actually, that last piece should have been the greater good of 10s of millions. Because right now I can assure you that there are 10s of millions of people in this country, many of them young adults with young families, who are far more worried about providing their children with food and shelter than they are about a virus that kills some elderly people.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
@Baby Doc if I thought you might be objective I would ask you the exact same question, hell there's no question that I don't like or respect Trump even a little bit, that doesn't make the fact that the guy has passed the buck on every major decision to someone else, then said it's not his fault, not a true statement.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
Most people want the economy reopened, but most want it so under the right-conditions - at least let there be tools (widespread fast testing, etc) and a plan in place vs winging-it and hoping there isn't a 2nd massive wave - we did not have the tools/plans in place when it started, and we still don't have them (enough) in place - reopening w/o better tools in place can put us back close to square one.
avatar for Jascoi
Jascoi
5 years ago
I know this is not well thought out. But... after this initial flattening of the curve i think it’s need to open everything. And then let things ride. just see what happens over all. otherwise our fucking ‘freedom’ ain’t worth shit.
avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan
5 years ago
^Jascoi, that's a much more popular opinion than you believe. Just not on a board full of AARP members with SS, pensions and other savings and slightly younger soft white collar types who are not experiencing the same deprivation that other segments of the population are contending with. 😉
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Dolfan
5 years ago
Can someone just tell me when I can go to the grocery store and pick up some motherfucking toilet paper, dishwasher detergent, and other shit of that nature?

In all seriousness, I think most opinions are mostly based on personal circumstance. Its easy to say open it up if you are having financial impact but no personal health impact to those you care for. Its easy to say lock it up if you have the means and are high risk or have someone close who has been impacted. It's not such an easy topic if you're in the middle in some way. As usual, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. A measured approach that allows for of economic activity to ramp up in alignment with controls on the spread of disease.

One area where I think both sides are likely to agree is that the common thread we have, an affinity for strip clubs, is probably not one of the first things to resume to its previous state.
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BabyDoc
5 years ago
@twentyfive. I don’t like Trump and never have. I wasn’t thrilled that he was the one in the President’s seat when North Korea and their nut-so leader became a very real imminent threat with the capability to hit the US with nuclear weapons. It was a case of what happens when his predecessors (democrats and republicans both) just kicked the problem down the road leaving it to someone else to be blamed and that someone was someone like Trump (possibly nuts himself). To his credit he de-escalated the situation and hopefully set the conditions for an eventual solution.

I’m not happy about some of the decisions Trump has made in this crisis and he is a terrible communicator but by and large he has done pretty well in crisis management (an honest post mortem AFTER the fact will determine if that is true or not). The headline this morning was about his “Opening things up Committee” or whatever it’s called followed by screaming from Pelosi and the media that it is pre-mature to open things up. I think it is a little pre-mature to open up BUT it is not at all pre-mature to form a committee to start thinking about it and what needs to be done or what conditions need to exist before hand.

I don’t support all of his thought process but Dugan is more correct than you. Medical care for non-C-19 people has come to a near stand-still. That cannot continue or the number of unnecessary dead will eventually eclipse C-19 deaths. There are any number of other reasons that a lock-down cannot continue but hopefully the people responsible for deciding the trade-offs, and there will be trade-offs, are not wasting their time on a strip club website.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
Man forced off Philadelphia bus by police for not wearing a mask - and he did not go quietly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIabgSfL…
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Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
San Francisco incredibly only has 13 Corona deaths - there are certain variables for this but the Bay Area was among the first to shelter-in-place
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Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
Supposedly some European countries may start opening-up by this coming week
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twentyfive
5 years ago
@Baby Doc you have really misstated my position, I'm all for re-opening the economy, my business has taken a huge hit, and as such I'd love for the on switch to be flipped, but everyone is just going to have to wait for the economy to come back on it's own, Trump can't mandate everyone back to work, just like he didn't have the courage to issue shelter at home orders. As a result this battle is being undertaken in pieces with no unified central command, which is basically exactly the way he has exploited every crisis that has occurred since he became president, there is no real leadership coming from the White House at this time , "just a lot of sound and fury signifying absolutely nothing"
BTW I really don't care to argue this any longer, not a thing any of us have to say here, will have the slightest effect on how this ultimately resolves.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
"... Jascoi, that's a much more popular opinion than you believe. Just not on a board full of AARP members with SS, pensions and other savings and slightly younger soft white collar types who are not experiencing the same deprivation that other segments of the population are contending with ...


The polls I've seen mentioned show 90% approval of the lockdown
avatar for RandomMember
RandomMember
5 years ago
This is the IHME model quoted in Dugan's editorial. It shows, in beautiful graphics, that we'll have about 61K deaths by August 4, 2020 and the curves show the epidemic is over by about June.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st…

According to the website:

"At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. "

Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically.
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Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
These two lowlifes picked the wrong-house to do a home-invasion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bErpVkQa…
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rickthelion
5 years ago
Be careful about saying the quiet part out lout rick my friend. Remember that the rick agenda is to thin the ape herds. . These damn dirty apes will not take our advice to “open up the economy” if they think it is just a tactic to kill off the uggos and retards.

Regardless, I need to talk to the pangolins and get them to cook up a more deadly disease for the next pandemic. You continue working on effort to convince the brain dead apes to put themselves at greater risk. Maybe you could encourage them to take up smoking crack as well. The lung damage from crack smoking may make infection with the pangolin virus more likely to be fatal.
avatar for Subraman
Subraman
5 years ago
"Funny. I was thinking that I'd have much more respect for the "keep everything on lockdown"ers if they had the: (1) awareness to understand that their soft circumstances are not universally enjoyed by all; (2) the wisdom and courage not to lash out for someone to blame every time another 80 year old dies from a contagious virus; and (3) the personal fortitude to tolerate a little risk for the greater good of millions."

#1 is easy: that's why we all want to see the economy opened up, ASAP. And instead of making excuses, hold accountable leadership for making it happen. It's the hypocritical position that "we should open everything up, complete lack of effective leadership doesn't matter" position I have trouble with. If this were Obama, and a month ago he'd said everyone who needs a test can have one, and a month later there's still no clear date when we can make the transition, people would be going apeshit -- and rightfully so.

#2 is easy also. I'm not blaming anyone every time another 80 year old dies. I'm saying, hold leadership accountable for what they promise, and what we voted them in for.

#3 is easy also -- you're exactly right, accept a short-term personal sacrifice to keep the health system from being overrun, and be thankful the majority had the wisdom to take the right steps that will keep the death toll possibly under 100,000. Be thankful we're holding leadership accountable for being prepared to loosen the lockdown, in a way that doesn't give us a huge bounce and force us to close it back down.

Have the guts and intellectual honesty to hold leadership accountable for the whole reason that they're there. If you give one fuck about the economy, that's the way to get there.
avatar for Lone_Wolf
Lone_Wolf
5 years ago
Just an idea here...if the country stays on lockdown, we will save hundreds of thousands.... possibly even millions of lives per year by not having car accidents, shootings, drug ods ..the list is endless.

Yes, let's create a UBI and require everyone to have their food delivered by armed hazmat teams.

Sure, sounds extreme but think about the millions of lives that will be saved. Lockdown! Lockdown!
avatar for JamesSD
JamesSD
5 years ago
So what are possible paths if they open up more? Some of the borderline businesses are things like hair and nail salons and gyms. 1 on 1 interactions especially with proper protective gear are fairly low risk. Meanwhile sports games and concerts are definitely packing tons of people into a tight space.

It does look like we are creeping towards a treatment that can reduce fatalities using existing antiviral meds. If we can legitimately reduce the death rate that makes the math a little better: people getting sick for weeks is less awful than deaths.

I see light at the end of the tunnel for the dog groomer, the dentist, the bikini waxer and the plumber. I'm just not optimistic for the bartender and the hotel worker.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
I would assume hotels would not necessarily be breeding grounds since most guests can just stick to their rooms and have minimal interaction w/ others.

I think anything w/ large crowds in close static proximity to each other would be the bigger issue - I'd be more concerned being in a plane w/ 200+ passengers for multiple hours, than checking into a hotel. I guess hotels can have the issue of cross-contamination; i.e. not being properly cleaned/disinfected after the previous guest checked out which I guess would *be* a concern.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
Taking out the big-guns to fight Corona:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJ5uq1oI…
avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan
5 years ago
===> "In all seriousness, I think most opinions are mostly based on personal circumstance. "

Sadly Dolfan couldn't have been more right. It shouldn't be that way, but it is what soft American living has made too many of us.

It's the reason that Sub can float some silly "accountability" standard that only measures a single metric. He doesn't have to care if food banks are running out of food, or people kill themselves out of sheer hopelessness, or hospitals have to furlough workers, or businesses close forever, or children's education becomes impaired, or people can't pay their rent or utilities, or...

It's the reason that 25 can keep pounding the lockdown drum while enjoying his in-ground pool and his savings. He doesn't have to live the life of the hourly workers that he has already shit canned and, like Sub, doesn't have those other worries either.

And of course we know what happens when things open up and a bounce in the infection rates occurs, which is inevitable given that we can't do Asian style lockdowns to begin with. They'll squeal and look for someone to blame. For them, max protection is the most important measurement because little else matters to them.

I wonder if their fathers and grandfathers would have had the same view if this happened during their working years or if they would have shown a little more grit. Back in the day men were less coddled and a little more close to the ground. While our lives have improved in many respects since those times, when I see grown men behave like this I sometimes wonder what we've lost.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
RickiBoi you are seriously silly you set up straw men for everyone else’s motives and present your own with willful misinterpretation to suit your narrative of the moment, you talk about not subjecting the Dugan girls to a vaccine with unknown side effects yet you post about encounters with women that can make you sick without your knowledge and in turn you’ll pass them on to Mrs Dugan and the girls if you can’t see your own hypocrisy I feel sorry for anyone in your orbit.
avatar for Subraman
Subraman
5 years ago
Ha, I love that you call "accountability" silly. Accountability is a concept that is core to how business and society work -- and it separates children from adults. It's not hard to see why you're evading and trying to make believe accountability is not a concept we should apply to the president, at a time of a global pandemic. Accountability is not blame. The refusal to discuss accountability, coupled with an appeal to jr high school style macho "you're all soft; not me, I'm tough!", comes off a tad ... disingenuous? If you want the economy opened, hold the president accountable for creating the conditions under which that can happen, with acceptable tradeoffs. Meanwhile, the people you're pretending to champion don't want your help, "just reopen everything" is not the view held by the poorest and those dying disproportionately. stop pretending to be their champion, they hold different views than you. And they certainly understand the concept of accountability.
avatar for Lone_Wolf
Lone_Wolf
5 years ago
@Subra - the president said the decision to reopen is his and will be the hardest decision of his life. Currently, I'm not seeing a deflection of accountibility when it comes to the decision to reopen.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
@LW he deflected all accountability by deferring all decisions about whether to shut things down to the governor’s he is thoroughly dishonest and his approach to everything is based on how does it benefit him, just look at the daily campaign rally’s and how he steps in front of questions that are asked of others.
avatar for Subraman
Subraman
5 years ago
LW: agree with 25. But more than that, I think a narrative of accountability might be: A month ago I said everyone who needs a test could get one. That wasn't true, and I hold myself accountable for that. It's still not true today, and I hold myself accountable for that. I have significant powers to change business priorities on things like PPE and tests, and chose not to use them, and as a result there's still no clear picture as to when we'll have the testing at scale we need. I hold myself accountable for that. As a result of all that, I'm faced with a decision as to whether or not to open up the economy, without having provided the leadership that would have resulted in the most favorable conditions (e.g., testing at scale) for us to do so. I am absolutely accountable for that, and you should hold me to it.

As someone who never voted for Obama, that's the standard I would have held Obama too, if it were him. It's also the standard everyone who is squirming at the mention of accountability would have held Obama to.

In any case, with the failure to set up the right conditions, it's likely the governors will continue to make their own decisions. How much will the economy rebound without NY & CA, and many other states? I dunno; as a lifelong pro-business Republican, I would have preferred we'd be in a different position currently.
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Subraman
5 years ago
BTW, i don't actually expect the president to say all those things, although acknowledgement of some can go a long way. What I expect is that everyone who wants the economy opened as badly as I do, and is willing to put politics aside, should be pushing hard for strong leadership that gets us to the best position.
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rickdugan
5 years ago
@25: It's not a straw man when it's true and what I posted about you was spot on. As far as your attempt to deflect, I'm not going to go into the various precautions that I take, but suffice it to say that the risks are nominal in almost every way.

@Sub: You're being inconsistent now. Your definition of accountable above included "in a way that doesn't give us a huge bounce and force us to close it back down." That was passive-aggressive speak for "the infection numbers are my most important concern and I will point my finger at someone if it goes back up."

Boys, putting aside the prima facie absurdity of holding politicians accountable for the population transmission of a communicable illness, not everyone shares your priorities. Also, not everyone is in your soft and comfy position, able to ride it out without harm. The article above is just the tip of the iceberg. This is why the Governors of TX and FL are both already looking for ways to start easing things up, understanding that the entire population is not comprised of soft and well funded powder puffs like you two.

What *I* will hold my politicians accountable for is a straight forward discussion of their decisions and the potential trade offs around them. Then I can make my own informed decision about the level of risk I am willing to accept.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
BTW RickiBoi
> It's the reason that 25 can keep pounding the lockdown drum while enjoying his in-ground pool and his savings. He doesn't have to live the life of the hourly workers that he has already shit canned and, like Sub, doesn't have those other worries either. <

Your hypothesis is totally ridiculous I have the resources to shelter in place As long as it’s necessary and the ability to exclude anyone I want from being close enough to me to pass the virus along to me, I’m actually much more concerned about the effect on the people you pretend to be speaking for, but in reality you’re just throwing them under the bus in search of cash for yourself and that’s what’s really going on.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
@Subraman, good point, without NY and Cali, they haven't got a snowflake's chance in hell of restarting the economy. All of these guy's making stupid statement's to the contrary, is just noise.
avatar for Subraman
Subraman
5 years ago
"@Sub: You're being inconsistent now. Your definition of accountable above included "in a way that doesn't give us a huge bounce and force us to close it back down." That was passive-aggressive speak for "the infection numbers are my most important concern and I will point my finger at someone if it goes back up.""

lol no it wasn't. It was direct speak for "the actual experts say that test & trace is the best way to transition; I hold leadership accountable for getting us there, especially if they claimed that we were there a month ago and it was a lie". The numbers are important -- the "numbers" are actually deaths and other life changing events.

"Boys, putting aside the prima facie absurdity of holding politicians accountable for the population transmission of a communicable illness" No one is actually doing that, it something you keep making up because it supports your narrative and you don't want to hold your own favored party accountable for anything. Covid19 is not any politician's fault -- or at least, any politician in the US. Our leadership is absolutely accountable for our response.

BTW, on your absurd "soft American" theory -- many nations throughout Europe and Asia, and increasingly in the southern hemisphere, are on lockdown also. Is your theory that soft Americans are responsible for lockdowns there, too? Or is it more likely that politicians are smartly taking into account actual epidemiologists' recommendations?
avatar for rudy111
rudy111
5 years ago
Boris Johnson was a 50/50 chance away from expiring. Somehow I think he has better healthcare than the majority of us. I am the same age as him and would not want to get into a 50/50 situation or less. I will let the rest of you go out and live normal lives and I will see how that works before I am ready to.
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
Just a reminder that social-distancing helps protect what's important:

https://i.redd.it/oy1nhxyi9yq41.jpg
avatar for twentyfive
twentyfive
5 years ago
👍👍
avatar for Papi_Chulo
Papi_Chulo
5 years ago
😄
avatar for Hank Moody
Hank Moody
5 years ago
At this point, it’s mostly just noise. We’re in the middle of a crisis and all the country can do is ride it out. The ‘plans’ are meaningless. Trump is not suited to lead, and thankfully it’s not up to him anymore. He left it to the states and it’s the states who will give us the ok to ease back to life. When? Who TF knows but prevalent and reliable testing will be a requirement and the recovery is going to be very gradual as caution and lack of funds delay the recovery of consumer spending.
avatar for rickdugan
rickdugan
5 years ago
@Sub: Well, at least you stopped being passive aggressive and finally spit out exactly what you meant by accountable. So in your view, based upon certain "expert" opinions, we should sit around for however long it takes to get broad based testing implemented? Do you know how long that could take? And even once those tests are distributed, how are we going to compel healthy people to take them for data collection purposes? Good luck with that. 😉

And no, I was not thrilled with the politicians who caved to complete lockdowns. But at least some of them understand what some of the softer members of this board do not, which is that there is a tipping point beyond which the treatment is worse, in terms of human misery, than what we are trying to prevent. They don't just have medical advisors - they also have economic, education, commerce and numerous other advisors also whispering bad things into their ears. Hopefully these politicians listen to them before more of the soft types like you lose your cushions.
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rickdugan
5 years ago
===> "I’m actually much more concerned about the effect on the people you pretend to be speaking for, but in reality you’re just throwing them under the bus in search of cash for yourself and that’s what’s really going on."

You don't give a shit about those people. You show it every time you claim that I'm really just advocating for myself, because it's the only way you can process why someone would care. It's incomprehensible to you that someone could simply empathize with the plight of others that they see every day.

Because if you really cared, you'd make more of an effort to care about how this is affecting them. Unlike you and me, they are trying desperately to get unemployment from a FL system that is utterly overwhelmed, even having to completely abandon social distancing to stand in long lines to submit paper applications. Then, if they are not lucky enough to have enough grocery money, they are waiting in long food bank car lines to get whatever meager offerings are left in banks that are running out of food for lack of donations. And on top of this of course they are likely dreadfully behind on their bills already, some no doubt hoping that they can keep their phones on and their auto insurance paid and knowing that eventually their homes and cars will also be in play.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
Just a lot of jackassery on your part RickiBoi I doubt you really believe what you’re spouting this is verging on nonsense
avatar for Hank Moody
Hank Moody
5 years ago
I’ve lost the point you are trying to make Rick. Nobody is disputing that the lockdowns are hurting nearly everybody. You’re not disputing that the lockdowns are keeping people alive, are you? Are you arguing only about degree? If that’s true, it’s hard to know how many people are being saved by not getting the virus. Given the worldwide shortages of PPE and healthcare workers I think a fair concern is whether ‘opening up the economy’ would drastically change the infection % and mortality % should the effects of the lockdown be negated and overwhelm the healthcare system.
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skibum609
5 years ago
Killing 200,000 people lagter to save 50,000 now seems mathematically ignorant. If the economy is not reopened soon there will be no economy and when shortages sytart hitting people worldwide will startr killing each other. Watchging people in favor of the lockdown will be funny when they are the ones blamed and hunted. The robotic drones loveng the lockdown will be juist as happy as t he people who bought stocks the last couple of weeks.
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rickdugan
5 years ago
@Jimmy, I'm disputing the notion that max protection at all costs is the route to go. I'm further disputing the ridiculous notions that we are supposed to maintain these lockdowns until we hit some super safe point that could be many months away, as Sub was suggesting in his normal passive-aggressive way.

Ultimately I'm disputing that one single metric, rate of infections/deaths, is the only thing that matters. Because it isn't, not for the hundreds of millions of people in this country who are at low risk for serious complications. This is not the bubonic plague FFS, which might justify subjecting our entire population to ongoing misery and, ultimately, Depression-era conditions. Only about 25% of our population is 55 and older and a high % of them aren't working or going to school anyway. At some point we have to get more rational about public policy or else the cost of the fix, in terms of human misery, will be higher than the benefits we receive.
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Jascoi
5 years ago
pandemics happen. all thru history. this one is epic because of the panic and response.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
It has become such a stupid hypothesis that Rickiboi is promoting he actually doesn't understand that folks like myself don't need to worry whether everything is open or not, we actually have the means to isolate if that were really our agenda, even if you had your way and somehow got everything open and everyone back to work, I'd benefit a whole bunch more than you would Rickiboi, so Rixsplain anything any way you like
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wallanon
5 years ago
"this one is epic because of the panic and response."

Fed by the proliferation of citizen publishers large and small on social media platforms more accessible to the average person.
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twentyfive
5 years ago
^Cut off before I could finish typing
Your assertion that you are acting in anyone's best interest beside what you perceptive to be your own is laughable and really needs work.
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Salty.Nutz
5 years ago
Sweden never locked down. The silver lining, the USA has the best heath care in the world.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coron…
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Hank Moody
5 years ago
@rick. Ok, I don’t think anyone is arguing for max protection at all costs or lockdown until we’re all super safe. At least I’m not. If someone else is taking that position, they can make the point themselves.
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