Virus mortality forecasts drop while the deep economic misery is just starting
rickdugan
Verified and Certifiable Super-Reviewer
A great article on what is already happening. It is just the tip of the iceberg if we don't start re-thinking these shutdowns.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-they-te…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-they-te…
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61 comments
Hopefully we keep the orders in place long enough to get a handle on the virus because if we open things back up too quickly we will need another shut down soon to get back on track. It's rough right now, but it is better to have a 2-3 month shut down now instead of 6 weeks now followed by another 2-3 months later after things get out of hand again.
So, the decision is to keep the lockdown in place until a vaccine is mass produced which is untenable OR have mass exposure which is also untenable.
AG Barr said the erosion of personal liberties is becoming concerning. At some point, the onus will have to be placed back on individuals for decisions on safety.
By all reports I'm seeing, that ship has sailed. It is here and all we are accomplishing now is temporary suppression. Perhaps if we had the centralized control and ability to aggressively compel testing and isolation in the early stages, ala S. Korea, then we might have been able to eradicate it. But the U.S. is a decentralized system with lots of civil liberties safeguards, so that was never really going to be an option.
So the only question is this: How long can we afford to suppress? We can't do this forever and any real answer, like a vaccine, is likely a long time away. Once the lockdowns are lifted, the number will go up.
At this stage we need to start thinking about more rational ways of protecting high risk people while letting others get back to their lives.
A third of renter's didn't pay last this month.
City, county, states have no tax revenue.
Postal service bankrupt.
The list is endless as to why this can't continue.
On the other hand stuff like hospitality and tourism are probably screwed for a while. Same with theaters bars and yes strip clubs.
Agree. But a plan to set conditions for when and how to reduce the lockdowns, along with a well-coordinated effort (with the solid leadership that requires) to meet those conditions, it's what's required to break the stalemate you describe. As it is, we have an idea of what some of those conditions are -- e.g., testing and tracing at scale, after we've reached the peak (testing at scale does not mean all hundreds of millions of Americans need a test -- there are well known target groups). If Obama had claimed a month ago "anyone who needs a test, can get a test", and a month later this was not only not true but there was still no reliable prediction on when it might be true, and in addition he had powers he could invoke to change the path but refused to do so, the "open the economy" people would be going absolutely apeshit. Rightfully so -- this is a national emergency, the president is accountable for leading us out of it, and the achievable goal of "enough tests so that we can be ready for testing & tracing when it's time" is not there. In a way, the right's refusal to hold Trump accountable for this, and instead excuse it away, is sort of a right-wing version of the left's vapid virtue signaling.
Thing is there's massive confusion as to what assumptions go into the government fatality models. Even the experts in the academic community, who were consulted for the study, don't know what assumptions go into the government model. For example, does the new 60K death toll estimate include social distancing? Nobody seems to know?
Can anyone here provide a link to an official government source detailing the assumptions that go into the government model? Because an *editorial* in the WSJ is no substitute. Otherwise, take the editorial with a grain of salt.
That's why you're better off following the likes of the New England Journal of Medicine or Johns Hopkins that publish transparent assumptions. At this point, I'm willing to believe that the overall case fatality rate of Covid-19 ( 0.1% ) is about the same as the flu. That number was reported by Fauci in NEJM. But we don't have a vaccine for Covid-19 and it's probably a lot more contagious than the flu. If the case fatality rate is 0.1% and half the US gets the disease that corresponds to about 170K deaths.
Dropping dead is not the only issue. Younger people recovering from Covid-19 appear to have lasting lung damage and it shows up on CT scans with a ground-glass signature. Autopsies also show the aggressive way Covid-19 attacks lung tissues. As it applies to my own behavior --with all the confusion --I'm not going to risk bringing death and destruction home for the chance of getting my rocks off.
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7133…
“Just curious three questions !
twentyfive
Posted March 16, 2020
…
2) Using the White House's Guidelines does anyone think that is going to be used as cover for a national
lockdown ?
…”
Funny. I was thinking that I'd have much more respect for the "keep everything on lockdown"ers if they had the: (1) awareness to understand that their soft circumstances are not universally enjoyed by all; (2) the wisdom and courage not to lash out for someone to blame every time another 80 year old dies from a contagious virus; and (3) the personal fortitude to tolerate a little risk for the greater good of millions.
In all seriousness, I think most opinions are mostly based on personal circumstance. Its easy to say open it up if you are having financial impact but no personal health impact to those you care for. Its easy to say lock it up if you have the means and are high risk or have someone close who has been impacted. It's not such an easy topic if you're in the middle in some way. As usual, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. A measured approach that allows for of economic activity to ramp up in alignment with controls on the spread of disease.
One area where I think both sides are likely to agree is that the common thread we have, an affinity for strip clubs, is probably not one of the first things to resume to its previous state.
I’m not happy about some of the decisions Trump has made in this crisis and he is a terrible communicator but by and large he has done pretty well in crisis management (an honest post mortem AFTER the fact will determine if that is true or not). The headline this morning was about his “Opening things up Committee” or whatever it’s called followed by screaming from Pelosi and the media that it is pre-mature to open things up. I think it is a little pre-mature to open up BUT it is not at all pre-mature to form a committee to start thinking about it and what needs to be done or what conditions need to exist before hand.
I don’t support all of his thought process but Dugan is more correct than you. Medical care for non-C-19 people has come to a near stand-still. That cannot continue or the number of unnecessary dead will eventually eclipse C-19 deaths. There are any number of other reasons that a lock-down cannot continue but hopefully the people responsible for deciding the trade-offs, and there will be trade-offs, are not wasting their time on a strip club website.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIabgSfL…
BTW I really don't care to argue this any longer, not a thing any of us have to say here, will have the slightest effect on how this ultimately resolves.
The polls I've seen mentioned show 90% approval of the lockdown
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st…
According to the website:
"At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. "
Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bErpVkQa…
Regardless, I need to talk to the pangolins and get them to cook up a more deadly disease for the next pandemic. You continue working on effort to convince the brain dead apes to put themselves at greater risk. Maybe you could encourage them to take up smoking crack as well. The lung damage from crack smoking may make infection with the pangolin virus more likely to be fatal.
#1 is easy: that's why we all want to see the economy opened up, ASAP. And instead of making excuses, hold accountable leadership for making it happen. It's the hypocritical position that "we should open everything up, complete lack of effective leadership doesn't matter" position I have trouble with. If this were Obama, and a month ago he'd said everyone who needs a test can have one, and a month later there's still no clear date when we can make the transition, people would be going apeshit -- and rightfully so.
#2 is easy also. I'm not blaming anyone every time another 80 year old dies. I'm saying, hold leadership accountable for what they promise, and what we voted them in for.
#3 is easy also -- you're exactly right, accept a short-term personal sacrifice to keep the health system from being overrun, and be thankful the majority had the wisdom to take the right steps that will keep the death toll possibly under 100,000. Be thankful we're holding leadership accountable for being prepared to loosen the lockdown, in a way that doesn't give us a huge bounce and force us to close it back down.
Have the guts and intellectual honesty to hold leadership accountable for the whole reason that they're there. If you give one fuck about the economy, that's the way to get there.
Yes, let's create a UBI and require everyone to have their food delivered by armed hazmat teams.
Sure, sounds extreme but think about the millions of lives that will be saved. Lockdown! Lockdown!
It does look like we are creeping towards a treatment that can reduce fatalities using existing antiviral meds. If we can legitimately reduce the death rate that makes the math a little better: people getting sick for weeks is less awful than deaths.
I see light at the end of the tunnel for the dog groomer, the dentist, the bikini waxer and the plumber. I'm just not optimistic for the bartender and the hotel worker.
I think anything w/ large crowds in close static proximity to each other would be the bigger issue - I'd be more concerned being in a plane w/ 200+ passengers for multiple hours, than checking into a hotel. I guess hotels can have the issue of cross-contamination; i.e. not being properly cleaned/disinfected after the previous guest checked out which I guess would *be* a concern.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJ5uq1oI…
Sadly Dolfan couldn't have been more right. It shouldn't be that way, but it is what soft American living has made too many of us.
It's the reason that Sub can float some silly "accountability" standard that only measures a single metric. He doesn't have to care if food banks are running out of food, or people kill themselves out of sheer hopelessness, or hospitals have to furlough workers, or businesses close forever, or children's education becomes impaired, or people can't pay their rent or utilities, or...
It's the reason that 25 can keep pounding the lockdown drum while enjoying his in-ground pool and his savings. He doesn't have to live the life of the hourly workers that he has already shit canned and, like Sub, doesn't have those other worries either.
And of course we know what happens when things open up and a bounce in the infection rates occurs, which is inevitable given that we can't do Asian style lockdowns to begin with. They'll squeal and look for someone to blame. For them, max protection is the most important measurement because little else matters to them.
I wonder if their fathers and grandfathers would have had the same view if this happened during their working years or if they would have shown a little more grit. Back in the day men were less coddled and a little more close to the ground. While our lives have improved in many respects since those times, when I see grown men behave like this I sometimes wonder what we've lost.
As someone who never voted for Obama, that's the standard I would have held Obama too, if it were him. It's also the standard everyone who is squirming at the mention of accountability would have held Obama to.
In any case, with the failure to set up the right conditions, it's likely the governors will continue to make their own decisions. How much will the economy rebound without NY & CA, and many other states? I dunno; as a lifelong pro-business Republican, I would have preferred we'd be in a different position currently.
@Sub: You're being inconsistent now. Your definition of accountable above included "in a way that doesn't give us a huge bounce and force us to close it back down." That was passive-aggressive speak for "the infection numbers are my most important concern and I will point my finger at someone if it goes back up."
Boys, putting aside the prima facie absurdity of holding politicians accountable for the population transmission of a communicable illness, not everyone shares your priorities. Also, not everyone is in your soft and comfy position, able to ride it out without harm. The article above is just the tip of the iceberg. This is why the Governors of TX and FL are both already looking for ways to start easing things up, understanding that the entire population is not comprised of soft and well funded powder puffs like you two.
What *I* will hold my politicians accountable for is a straight forward discussion of their decisions and the potential trade offs around them. Then I can make my own informed decision about the level of risk I am willing to accept.
> It's the reason that 25 can keep pounding the lockdown drum while enjoying his in-ground pool and his savings. He doesn't have to live the life of the hourly workers that he has already shit canned and, like Sub, doesn't have those other worries either. <
Your hypothesis is totally ridiculous I have the resources to shelter in place As long as it’s necessary and the ability to exclude anyone I want from being close enough to me to pass the virus along to me, I’m actually much more concerned about the effect on the people you pretend to be speaking for, but in reality you’re just throwing them under the bus in search of cash for yourself and that’s what’s really going on.
lol no it wasn't. It was direct speak for "the actual experts say that test & trace is the best way to transition; I hold leadership accountable for getting us there, especially if they claimed that we were there a month ago and it was a lie". The numbers are important -- the "numbers" are actually deaths and other life changing events.
"Boys, putting aside the prima facie absurdity of holding politicians accountable for the population transmission of a communicable illness" No one is actually doing that, it something you keep making up because it supports your narrative and you don't want to hold your own favored party accountable for anything. Covid19 is not any politician's fault -- or at least, any politician in the US. Our leadership is absolutely accountable for our response.
BTW, on your absurd "soft American" theory -- many nations throughout Europe and Asia, and increasingly in the southern hemisphere, are on lockdown also. Is your theory that soft Americans are responsible for lockdowns there, too? Or is it more likely that politicians are smartly taking into account actual epidemiologists' recommendations?
https://i.redd.it/oy1nhxyi9yq41.jpg
And no, I was not thrilled with the politicians who caved to complete lockdowns. But at least some of them understand what some of the softer members of this board do not, which is that there is a tipping point beyond which the treatment is worse, in terms of human misery, than what we are trying to prevent. They don't just have medical advisors - they also have economic, education, commerce and numerous other advisors also whispering bad things into their ears. Hopefully these politicians listen to them before more of the soft types like you lose your cushions.
You don't give a shit about those people. You show it every time you claim that I'm really just advocating for myself, because it's the only way you can process why someone would care. It's incomprehensible to you that someone could simply empathize with the plight of others that they see every day.
Because if you really cared, you'd make more of an effort to care about how this is affecting them. Unlike you and me, they are trying desperately to get unemployment from a FL system that is utterly overwhelmed, even having to completely abandon social distancing to stand in long lines to submit paper applications. Then, if they are not lucky enough to have enough grocery money, they are waiting in long food bank car lines to get whatever meager offerings are left in banks that are running out of food for lack of donations. And on top of this of course they are likely dreadfully behind on their bills already, some no doubt hoping that they can keep their phones on and their auto insurance paid and knowing that eventually their homes and cars will also be in play.
Ultimately I'm disputing that one single metric, rate of infections/deaths, is the only thing that matters. Because it isn't, not for the hundreds of millions of people in this country who are at low risk for serious complications. This is not the bubonic plague FFS, which might justify subjecting our entire population to ongoing misery and, ultimately, Depression-era conditions. Only about 25% of our population is 55 and older and a high % of them aren't working or going to school anyway. At some point we have to get more rational about public policy or else the cost of the fix, in terms of human misery, will be higher than the benefits we receive.
Fed by the proliferation of citizen publishers large and small on social media platforms more accessible to the average person.
Your assertion that you are acting in anyone's best interest beside what you perceptive to be your own is laughable and really needs work.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coron…