Republicans should not underestimate Bernie.

2/10/2020 3:52:54 AM

I've been seeing a lot of Trump supporters lately hoping that Bernie wins the Democratic primaries.

Hoping that Bernie wins is incredibly stupid. Bernie is probably the only candidate in the 2020 field who has a shot at beating Trump.

If Biden becomes the Democratic candidate, or if Mike Bloomberg becomes the candidate. The Democrats instantly lose. Biden and Bloomberg's entire campaign is essentially "I'm not Donald Trump." There's no energy behind their campaigns. Nobody actually cares about them, Biden and Bloomberg are very mediocre candidates with essentially no potential to grow their support beyond what they already have. If anything, Biden will probably only lose voters instead of gaining them the longer he stays in the running. Even though Bernie is older than Biden is. Biden is obviously more senile than Bernie and his politics look like 2008's politics instead of 2020's.

Bernie Sanders has a tremendous amount of energy for his campaign that goes beyond a simple message of "vote for me if you don't like Trump." Republicans who only talk to other Republicans think Bernie has no chance because of what a radical socialist he is. But truthfully, Bernie is not that radical, and socialism is not controversial or political suicide anymore. 42% of Americans actually have positive views towards socialism now.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20…

A lot of Republicans seem to be under the impression that no centrist or centre-left voters would go for Bernie. This is absolutely false. I know people who I'd consider centre-right actually who like Bernie Sanders. The only people who support Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bloomberg are people who are either solidly left leaning in the first place, or people who would vote for anyone as long as that candidate wasn't Trump. Bernie, however, has much more potential to pull people away from the centre-right.

There's another issue as well, and that's voter turnout which Republicans are seriously underestimating. If Bernie wins, voter turnout in favor of him from the left is going to be enormous. Bernie's campaign has passion behind it, and the only thing that's gonna win this election is passion. Trump already has it, and the only Democrat candidate who has a shot at winning the primaries who also has passion, is Bernie Sanders. If Biden or Bloomberg wins, a lot of Democrat voters are going to not turn out to the polls because they don't actually care enough about whether they win. So voter turnout in their favor is gonna be low-moderate whereas turnout for Bernie is going to be very very high. The impact of that will easily be enough to cancel out the people who think he's too radical.

So I would seriously warn anyone who's supporting Trump against rooting for Bernie to win the primaries. If Bernie wins, we got a race on our hands. If any of the other Democrats win, then Trump will destroy them.

95 comments

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skibum609

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5 years ago

Sorry, but the idea that anyone center right would go for a communist pretending to be a socialist is ridiculous.

Mate27

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5 years ago

CC in DC, nice hypothetical but Bernie alienates too many voters even in the Democratic Party. Young people who haven’t made enough money to pay a lot in taxes don’t understand how his policies would rape your paycheck, but most voters have enough life experience to understand how Bernie would take more of the pie($$)!

Idealistically Bernie appeals to those who are down on their luck, but sometime in your life you got to grow up and get real. Churchill said this the best.

rickdugan

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5 years ago

Sorry CC, but as a Republican I am very much hoping that Bernie wins the nomination. He is just not palatable to the moderates and Independents who an aspiring President needs to win over. It doesn't matter how much he energizes his base, he needs more than that to have a chance.

OTOH, Bloomberg worries me a great deal. He is sharp, charismatic and a seasoned campaigner. He also has enough money and ongoing income that he can spend billions and probably still be richer by election day than he is now.

mark94

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5 years ago

Let’s look at just one slice of the vote, African Americans. Democrats cannot win a national election without an overwhelming vote from AAs. If it’s not over 90%, the math doesn’t work.

For 3 years, Trump has been courting the AA vote with initiatives like Criminal reform and funds for Black colleges. As a result, polls have him winning 20% of the Black vote. One poll even had him at 40%.

Bernie, Bloomberg, and Mayor Pete do not appeal to AA voters like Obama’s VP. If Biden doesn’t win the nomination, and he won’t, many AA voters will stay home on Election Day.

Game over.

rickdugan

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5 years ago

===> "Bernie, Bloomberg, and Mayor Pete do not appeal to AA voters like Obama’s VP. If Biden doesn’t win the nomination, and he won’t, many AA voters will stay home on Election Day."

Don't be so quick to discount the notion that some of them might actually come out and vote Republican. Bigger than criminal reform and donations to black colleges, by far, is his nationwide school choice initiative. Many black kids are stuck in violent and ineffective schools, despite the gobs of money that many big cities throw at these schools. The promise that Trump would give these kids a chance to go to better schools is a powerful one. Dems cannot match this promise because they are too beholden to teachers unions that vehemently oppose school choice.

bdirect

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5 years ago

bernie had a chance 4 years ago, got screwed at convention.........nancy doing her stupid shit,..torn up any chances of a demo beating trump in 2020

rickdugan

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5 years ago

#FeeltheBern

bdirect

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5 years ago

bernie, just dont have it.... Trump was a TV star and can work the camera and wins all debates.......maybe a Bernie/ Kim Kardashian would help the demo ticket

Uprightcitizen

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5 years ago

I am an independent that's a social liberal and a fiscal conservative. I vote for who makes sense at the time.

I just don't see him coming even close to winning a general election. He is an extremeist on the left with a motivated base that's sabotaging any chance the Dems have to capture the moderate voters in America.

As much as an asshole Trump is he is not an social/fiscal extremist by any definition. He has huge balls and tackles controversial issues many politicians won't because of the blow back. It's easy to hate the guy because he is an arrogant asshat. More than once I have thought "just shut the fuck up and do your job". The moderates pick winners and the US economy is steamrolling right now. He will win unless something particularly bad happens between now and election time.

BitCoinHodler

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5 years ago

As someone who makes a pretty decent income and lives in a high tax and COL area (Connecticut) I think Bernie makes the most sense.

Even though I do not own any small businesses some close friends of mine do in manufacturing and they struggle keeping employees because they cant provide healthcare for them. If Universal healthcare would pass it would make it easier for them to keep quality workers. I would also be more likely to start my own business if I knew Universal healthcare passed and I would be covered mo matter what.

twentyfive

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5 years ago

@UC Trump is pretty extreme himself, socially the most savage rhetoric in half a century all of a sudden has reappeared and is causing divisions in our society, and as far as being fiscally conservative, that’s a joke, boys and girls, can you say exploding deficits.

Uprightcitizen

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5 years ago

@CTLennay - Universal healthcare is only one of his agenda items. You need to look at all the crazy giveaways this guy is proposing. If it was just the healthcare thing he would stand a chance.

CJKent (Banned)

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5 years ago

@CC

Sorry to inform you, it doesn’t matter, both political parties are the two sides of the same coin.

Like in any third world country, like we are now, the elites chose their puppet president, prime minister, etc

In America the electoral college is the clique of elites that will select the puppet president to benefit who else, but the elites, the 1% of wealthy people, politicians and celebrities.

Donal Trump will be the potus for a second term to make the 1% richer and the rest of the population poorer.

mark94

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5 years ago

“as far as being fiscally conservative, that’s a joke, boys and girls, can you say exploding deficits.”

Trump proposed a budget today that would cut spending by $4Trillion and put us on a path to a balanced budget. Of course, the Dems will never go along with this.

Uprightcitizen

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5 years ago

@25 I did say he was an asshole who should shut the fuck up. Expanding deficits have been an eternal problem not confronted by politicians much like social security. I agree that the continued expansion under Trump is not acceptable and needs to be confronted but understand Congress has a fundamental role here. It's easy to put it all on the guy with the big mouth.

twentyfive

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5 years ago

@Mark The budget he proposed today is a joke and according to the CBO his budget doesn’t get us close to a BB for real, he wants to cut SS Medicare, how about taxing some of those large businesses that aren’t paying anything in taxes, stop with the bullshit, that’s all it is.

mark94

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5 years ago

Bernie is smart. He promises the moon but refuses to say how he’d pay for it. Warren made the mistake of admitting how much her health care plan would cost, making it obvious that her plan could never work. Bernie’s health plan is impossibly expensive but he refuses to admit it. It’s nice to believe in Santa Claus.

BitCoinHodler

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5 years ago

@mark94 we already pay so much for healthcare. Compared to other western countries we are getting shafted.

twentyfive

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5 years ago

@UC it’s not putting it all on the guy with the big mouth, he doesn’t answer to Congress and he just keeps diverting funds from where Congress intended them to go to spend on his pet projects funny but true, just about every time the budget has been balanced or in surplus it was directly related to a Democrat president, of course these kiool aid drinkers will try to spin that to a Republican Congress but we know that’s false, there have been plenty of Republican congresses and presidency’s that ran concurrent and they didn’t get us to a balanced budget

mark94

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5 years ago

Do you know when health care inflation got out of control ? When the government got involved.

Here’s just one example on how deregulation could cut cost. Allow nurse practitioners to provide care. Right now, there are severe limits on what a NP can do. The AMA has succeeded in restricting them to force patients to see a MD, even for minor and straightforward care. Freeing up NP to see patients would be especially beneficial in rural areas.

Or, another example. Hospitals can only be built if they prove a need to the government. That assures 100% occupancy, which diminishes competition and keeps prices high. Let hospitals compete on the basis of quality and cost.

mark94

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5 years ago

UMass Lowell poll: 62% of New Hampshire Democrats would rather see a giant meteor strike the earth and extinguish all human life than see President Trump get re-elected.

twentyfive

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5 years ago

^ your government is the one that gave health care to the insurance companies rather than pay attention to what they were doing with the funds and you want to blame the foxes for raiding the henhouse.

twentyfive

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5 years ago

Wow mark that’s pretty stupid even for you I guess you idiots need some lessons in comedy too, really you need a 🤦‍♀️

gammanu95

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5 years ago

If Bernie or Warren wins the nomination, Trump will win the general election while all the centrist dem voters stay home.

If Biden or Bloomberg wins the nomination, Trump will win the general election while all the leftist dems cast protest votes.

Buttigieg has the best shot at beating Trump. Klobuchar is second, but Put Beteigieg has the better shot at winning the nom in May.

mark94

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5 years ago

Buttigieg is a junior varsity Obama. He lacks experience, and real knowledge, but is smooth as hell. Mc Cain and Romney let Obama get away with his BS. I don’t think Trump will repeat that mistake.

CC99

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5 years ago

@Meat72, RickDugan, and @Skibum

I would consider both my mom and my grandfather to be "centre-right." Both of them said if Bernie won the primaries, they would vote for him. If Biden, Bloomberg, or Warren won, they would simply not vote. There's a lot of centre-right people who have socially conservative views but are more fiscally liberal. Bernie appeals to them because of his rants against corruption in politics and in the corporate world.

Bernie is essentially the Democrat version of Trump in a lot of ways. Both of them are populist candidates who have a highly energized and passionate base of voters. Both of them are anti-establishment, and both of them were underestimated by both the opposition party and their own party because they thought he would be too "radical" for people to go for. But neither Donald Trump nor Bernie is actually that radical when you look more closely at what they say and do. But both of them have just enough radicalness to them that they create a lot of energy. A lot of democrats right now are "Bernie or bust" meaning they won't vote for anybody unless its Bernie.

People don't like moderate, establishment candidates right now. Biden is boring, his campaign has no energy behind it. He is essentially Hillary 2.0. And if you think Bloomberg is a major threat, then you are thinking that because you are looking at him from a Republican point of view. From the point of view of an idealistic, solidly democrat voter, Bloomberg is another super wealthy guy with no convictions who thinks he can buy the white house. A lot of young people will simply not bother voting for him and stay home instead, and a lot of AA voters will think of him as the guy who supported stop and frisk policies in NYC and now is trying to claim he is on their side.

CC99

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5 years ago

@Gammanu

Buttigieg has no chance either. Again, he would be Hillary 2.0. Seems to have no convictions of his own and is just a career politician.