"Companies are beefing up staff as payrolls this year remain on track for their biggest gain since 1999"
But jerkoffson40 and steve229 (the 16 y/o girl) said the idea of coming economic boom is ridiculous! Must have been a made up data point.
Okay, cynics - tear this one apart.
LOL!
If all governments report numbers as such, we could officially end world hunger, have global full employment, and global official boom times.
Just remember if you are unemployed but no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, you don't get officially counted. Boom times ahead.
I don't the fact that the market fell 7% off its high means there is going to be QE in the U.S. Europe is more of a toss up. Interesting how this jaw-boning by central banks made the market turn on a dime yesterday though.
Dougsta dude...we're all with you on the economic recovery, assuming the #ebola.strippers don't kill us first.
My hypothesis, however, is that strip clubs will improve. We'll see the rise of a new class of uber-rich uber-HAWT strippers that strip because they dig it.
We're talking 'bout 10's that'll take it up the ass for $20 and then do a sick ATM. Why do they charge only $20? They won't need the money, but they will want to get the thrill of feeling all slutty when some gross old dude sodomize them just before they blow him (don't worry jerikson40 dude...these chicks will clean themselves out before going to work).
Overall, $20 is the perfect price to feel like a cheap whore, and that what these babes o' the economic boom will want.
The best is yet to CUM! WEEE-YAWWW!!!
The economy is recovering slowly because real incomes are not up, and our economy is based on consumer spending. But even with under employment, a low unemployment rate is a good sign. More taxes are collected and more goods and services are bought.
The day after election day, that is when it will change, at least that is when it will start. Republicans will want to trash the employment market and blame it on the Democrats to win in 2016. The change might not be readily apparent the day after the election, but that is when it will start. Also lots of companies close down facilities during the holiday season, and then lots have their layoffs in Q2. So by next summer things will really be hurting as the Republicans will have poised themselves for 2016
SJG
There are still a whole lot of people without jobs or not working full time who want to work full time and real wages aren't going up. The Fed knows that even though officially the official numbers have the unemployment rate near the old full employment rate.
Jobless claims down.
Bacon consumption up
1969 to 1972 was the time of the highest standard of living for working people. Since then wages have never kept up with costs.
Of the talk about things getting better now, job growth is not even keeping up with population growth. People are always proclaiming new booms, because this is how Ponzi Schemes work, by boosting for them.
Dougster is right about this "whorification" which has occurred. But completely wrong about any prediction that it will be reversed anytime soon. The United States is very quickly becoming a third world country. More strife at the bottom and more loose cash at the top. No end to this in sight. Some basic attitudes and sex and money have changed and they are not going back.
sites.google.com SJG
Left Business Observer leftbusinessobserver.com
So that data point around Oct 15th was obviously just a fluke and some statistical noise. I bet last week's number proved that. So what was that number again?
So that data point around Oct 15th was obviously just a fluke and some statistical noise. I bet last week's number proved that. So what was that number again?
Can anybody tell me why the US did better than Europe during the economic crisis? Most of y'all know economics better than me.
Different monetary policies. QE vs Austerity. One consequence of this was that Euro was very overvalued relative to the USD through the crisis and still is somewhat. The Euro is on the way down now as is the Yen as the dollar rises which will their recoveries. One reason I say the U.S. is capable of leading a global recovery (although) it pales in comparison to scientific advances about to come. It's also why, contrary to what Stevie-girl quoted I don't think Japan and Europe will deny the world an economic recovery. The media may heat up about and Stevie-girl will get scared and believe but, when the hype gets its worst we'll see that it was just that.
Europe was also slightest worse off going (in terms of bank leverage for instance) but Britain was even worse and has recovered better than Europe which is why I dot cite that as the primary reason.
Thank you, Dougster. I need to start reading the WSJ I stead of Needlepoint Monthly.
Jobless claims and unemployment stats are down because more people have dropped out of the workforce. The labor participation rate is now at a stunning 36 year low. Drops in unemployment rates and jobless claims aren't very meaningful when large chunks of the population decide to stop trying altogether, which in turn leads to less economic activity generated by the population as a whole.
U know why God created economists? To make weathermen look good.
LOL! RickyBoy gets his economic opinions off of ZeroHedge. Great market, political and economic prognostications there for what is it? Six years running now.
So is it true that once a person falls off of unemployment eligility, that person is no longer counted in the "jobless claims" or "unemployment" stats? I'm sure I'm oversimplifying, but...
If you can no longer collect unemployment, congratulations. You just reduced the official unemployment rate. You're not officially counted.
"Companies are beefing up staff as payrolls this year remain on track for their biggest gain since 1999". Let's see so payrolls are going up but people are dropping out of the workforce faster than usual, gets that's possible if hiring is happening much faster than layoffs overall. Guess stevie-girl was wrong. Again.
"Since the end of 2008 the labor force participation rate has fallen from 65.8% to 63.6%. The recent decline we've seen has been primarily among young, single men. For single men age 16-19, participation fell by almost 9 points...For single men age 20-24 it fell by almost 5 points."
Of course, a significant chunk of this decline can probably be attributed to a corresponding increase in stripper boyfriends
Or maybe more are in school at those ages now. Could it be?
Nope, try again genius.
"In 1994, 63% of recent female high school graduates and 61% of male recent high school graduates were enrolled in college in the fall following graduation. By 2012, the share of young women enrolled in college immediately after high school had increased to 71%, but it remained unchanged for young men at 61%"
Looks like you're the genius Steve. If more women are in school and the same % of men then that could explain why overall youth participation is down. Not because the economy sucks so bad, even despite hiring being at its highest rate since 1999. I know math is hard for you Steve, but I think even you can get this one. Come on, only one of the two variables is changing. Not like the big confusing supply and demand thing when both could change. Try hard Steve. Or give up and just quote some song lyrics.
In any case, my understanding is that labor force participation has declined because female participation peaked around 1999 and has been on the decline since. Not sure why that is, but from what stevie-girl cited sounds like many more are in school now. Now who could have foreseen that trend continuing?
Also Steve girl's quote looks quite tactically worded. Talks about going to college immediately after high school. Could be that guys are just more like to wait a few years but still get there. I'm always suspect of things that carefully worded - probably has some agenda. The better metric would be percentage in the range 18-29 or so who are students.
I got a 19 year old nephew who was working two jobs, one in the restaurant industry and the other milking cows. Might sound funny to some but at least he's doing his best with what he gas to work with.
I missed the consumer confidence number yesterday. I bet it sucked with the world into economic collapse according to stevie-girl and all the pessimism here. Did anyone catch it, per chance?
@Che: Hey, if steve229 was capable of having a reasonable discussion, I'd be willing to engage. We tried that once, but he can only engage if he thinks he is ahead. In this case he was shooting his mouth off about supply and demand proving something, and obviously so and then it turned out he doesn't even understand it at the econ 101 level. Then he was like "OMG! Both supply and demand can change at the same time? I didn't know that was possible." After that he's just been on run, with a little potshot here and there (argument by authority, arguing against a position I never advocated). I think he is going the way of txtittyfan after the econ 101 incident. Knows better that try to and face me head on, so just a random pot shot here and there, but generally keep on the run.
@Che: and yes I know one data point proves nothing. NFP and Fed meetings are the only ones that have been shown to move markets anything beyond short term. I like to use the others sides tactics though to make fun of the way they are.
As for why the country is on the verge of an economic boom, I think there are plenty of factors pointing to it: The main ones are in the market. How readily dips get bought up. The fact that is bigger players with very long time frames who by these dips at rather high levels (e.g. they showed up at 1820 on the S&P recently). I think the negativity in the media and amongst people who fancy themselves "smart" is exactly what is needed to keep the market rallying and is calculated to be that way.
I've mentioned the strength of the USD. That will be good for economies like Japan and Europe which have suffered due to a relatively strong dollar. I also don't see the market falling out of bed even though QE is ending.
There's also falling oil prices. Some countries are going to get devastated by that, but it's good for the US.
Psychologically, I see that millennials are very entrepreneurial compared to previous generations. Several of my former co-workers have go on to start their own business. In general there is confidence in the labor market and strength of the economy to take these risks. Also they are very picky about jobs, showing how high the demand is.
The stats definitely point to an improving labor market no matter how ZeroHedge (with its perma-bear agenda) try to spin it.
There is the whole improvement of the economy in emerging markets. Sure they dip from time to time, but the tread is definitely up. Think of all the potential there is for future growth there and all the new scientists coming online.
But the biggest reason is my final one: The advances I see in science and the fields they are in. This is especially true in biotech, but I have also been quite astounded by the advances I've seen first hand in AI regarding pattern recognition and theorem proving. Then there was talk Monday of Lockhead Martin having a small sized fusion reactor.
Another factor is the optimism I see amongst people I judge as being able to think objectively and who have the track record to show it. How they are positioning for the future in terms of how they invest, hire for their business, buy real estate, etc.
I honestly do not see how anyone who is able to think for themselves cannot see a boom coming and suspect they are actually just letting the media do their thinking for them. Now would steve229 be someone like that? Could be!
Just wanna thank both Dougster and Che for citing sources and showing Econ dummies like me quality sites and info.
@Che: FINRA publishes data on ATS (aka dark pool) activity. You can get it delayed two weeks for free or pay a pretty penny and get it daily. Or you can also look at the ticks when the market closes to do it manually. I compromise and read notes from a trader who looks at it and also SEC and MIDAS data on what various players (like HFTs) are doing. Morningstar is another good resource for seeing large institutional activity.
The U.S. equity markets are great for their transparency. With currency, bonds and other OTC it's more of a guessing game.
I have seen a technical argument that 2001-2012 was a long term consolidation period for the market and now is a breakout. I look at a different set of indicators, however, but sharkhunter seems to be good with better known technicals.
More on your points later...
More on your points later.
LOL!
"Hey, if steve229 was capable of having a reasonable discussion, I'd be willing to engage."
LOL, Dugly said that. Yes, Dugly. Thanks for the laugh buddy, now go make so more alternates.
@che: I think lower oil is definitely good for the US economy overall although some companies are really going to get hurt.
The US has survived with a much stronger dollar than now. In fact if you look at historical prices and PPP it is outrageously. I think the strengthening dollar is overall positive for us, since it means weakening Yen and Euro which should help their economies and symbiotically ours.
I agree that rapid advances in technology can strengthen the wealth divide. But I think that is something that will be worked out politically (yes some wealth redistribution) and with better education which society will be able to afford as it health wealthier. A country like Norway up to this would be a good example of that but probably not going no forward since their wealth is so oil dependent. But you get the point.
Everything else not much to say other than we see things differently and I know which way I'm making my bets.
As far as where all the money was coming from for the booming stock market ever since 2009, it was the Fed and a mechanism that ended up pumping up the market. Obama let it slip way back in 2009 when they hatched the plan with Ben Bernanke saying it was a good time to buy stocks. It was the ultimate insider trading tip.
If the Fed wanted to to, they could tank the market very easily and destroy our economy. They are a private bank with way too much power in my opinion. Talk about too big to fail. I believe with inflation since the Fed was created, one dollar is now worth only about 5 cents compared to what it used to be worth before the Fed was created in the early 1900's.
Looks like more statistical noise for a fourth week in a row. Jobless claims down again, and lower than even the expert analysts had forecast. But we all know, by stevie-girl's analysis that this simply cannot be, since exit polls conducted by the always impartial FoxNews show that voters are very dissatisfied with economy. That's why the Repubs made gains in the election after all. So the number is, once again, either a statistical fluke or part of massive government lying conspiracy!
We are all doomed. DOOMED!
DOOMED!
Shadowstats shows using the old way to calculate the unemployment rate, unemployment is not significantly decreased for the last few years and is still between 20 to 25%, Now if you use the official numbers and don't count people who are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits because they can only collect them for a limited time and add in all the people who gave up looking for work, it's no wonder the official numbers sound so good but the Fed knows better and one official even announced today that more QE might be needed. shadowstats.com