Layoff Time 2024

I think we’re still finding our way out of the Covid induced mess, markets are still under a lot of interest rate pressures my best guess is once the elections are over things will start to look for a new normal.

We are still trying to cure the fuck-ups that a democrat party government foisted on us and if we do not close the border and throw out every illegal this country will cease to exist in 20 or less years.

Yet once again I may be proven wrong.

“New GDP Report Is Surprisingly Strong”

http://newser.com/s345543

We'll all continue to fall for the bullshit our "leaders" in government tell us. Blaming the other side of the aisle for some niche issue, while failing to see the real issues.

I'm expecting more churn but not a total upheaval. Income/wealth gaps will continue to increase as AI eats into a lot of upper-middle income job areas, giving top earners greater percentages of earnings and sending whats left of the upper middle classes' highly trained & skilled workers into the jobs previously dominated by younger or less trained and skilled workers and cascading downward. Continued increases in education costs, combined with decreasing value from said education result in the best way to make money being having money already. Similar trends will continue in housing, a focus on increasing the number of housing units has us building mass low quality, high density homes under the guise of lowering housing costs, but what it's really doing is concentrating the wealth in the hands of those developers and landlords.

My company isn't looking to do layoffs, but we are looking to shed workforce with a combination of hiring freezes and attrition. I think they'll be more of that this year than large scale layoffs, as that seems to be the approach of many peers I talk to at other orgs. It may be just my industry taking that approach though.

Two elements of the economy that will affect many others are the bleak future commercial real estate and Amazon’s surge in growth which has impacted all types of retailers - from mom & pop to larger ones. The Amazon effect ties into commercial real estate drag as well. So, commercial real estate got hosed by covid while still getting pummeled by e-commerce.

I was beginning to believe my business was doomed when I had the worst October, November and December in 15 years. Actually told my wife I was going to drive for Amazon if it kept up and start collecting social security. Between January 2 and 25 I was retained by so many new clients that the 3+ week period was the best 3 month period I have had in 41+ years. I have enough work for 8 months now. Why say this? Historically a flood of new cases signals a recession and I think we are fucked. Bad unemployment figures out as well.

When Costco starts selling gold and it sells out in hours, that should tell you something. We have an inverted yield curve, which is a sign of recession. I would guess the number of layoffs will be over double what they were in 2023.

The biggest head scratcher is why is the stock market hitting all time highs. It doesn't matter though, since it is no longer a good indicator of economic health when the richest 10% own 93% of stocks. That just tells us the wealth gap is increasing. The rich are getting richer, while the lower and middle class are getting poorer.

The layoffs are primarily in the tech sector, and they may well be a response to over hiring during Covid.
The stock market hitting record highs makes for good headlines, but has little to no effect on Joe Average.
Unemployment is still at record lows.
The cost of money is unbelievably high yet the real estate market has not slowed down appreciably. The automotive market is starting to feel the pinch, however.

I think news outlets are going to take a big hit because I get everything that I need to know on TUSCL.

The cost of money isn’t really that high actually it’s more aligned with historical norms, when I bought my first house interest on my mortgage was about 8% and it’s now lower than that, problem we’re facing now even though inflation is tapering down, the past few years caused a run up in prices, that’s been fairly unexpected and there’s not much to bring down prices happening now, deflation would cause a whole new set of issues and that wouldn’t be very helpful to most folk.

The stock market also ran up to amazing heights in 1929.

"The cost of money isn’t really that high actually it’s more aligned with historical norms,"

25, not even historical norms. We got addicted to the morphine rush of cheap money to goose asset prices (like 401k's) and real estate prices. Kept interest rates near zero far longer than we had to. And now we had inflation, but whomever is president always wants rock bottom rates to help reelection. Now we're still at above target inflation and people are calling for rate cuts which will bring inflation roaring back.

^ yep that’s correct

^The village idiot hath spake. The sum total of what he's wrong about could knock Jupiter out of orbit.

Sinclair was right that the stock market hitting record highs is completely out of sync with other indicators and metrics indicating that the economy is extremely unhealthy. Money is as cheap as it has been because of quantitative easing, not because of a pandemic from four years ago. The central banks have been printing nonstop for 16 years now. People cannot afford houses, cars, groceries, or college educations. A lot of financial advisors and economic forecasters have warned my professional network to hold on to our money. The message has been to stop dining out, skip the luxury travel, and squirrel away 2-3 years of income. 2024 and beyond is looking pretty scary.

^ And what am I wrong about child.
Gamma-nu is a women’s sorority you mental midget.

^the sum total of your retirement is refreshing the TUSCL discussions page to see if I posted . Such a pathetic loser.

^ As usual you decide to address your personal remarks to me, if you’d not address me I’d find easier to pretend you don’t exist
As far as I’m concerned you’re just another annoying internet gadfly, and a jealous one at that.

When you contemplate your future, bear in mind, you need to slice up and down not across

Thank you for telling me to kill myself. You have just committed a federal offense. The best thing you can do for yourself is to leave me alone.

^ Fuck off pissant
Cry to someone who cares you orange lipped freak child

I keep hearing about how the casino tables are empty

Cars getting repoed left and right, and all these 80k trucks that can't sell

Everybody is borrowing to just pay the monthly bills

I used to go to the delis around me, get a hero ever now and then. Used to be 8,9,10,11 at the most 12. Now your looking at 16, 17, 18 dollars for a fucking sandwich. It ain't worth it no more.

Good sandwiches are expensive I get the boars head at Publix those sandwiches are delicious

Layoffs: Wait until Tesla's Optimus goes Prime Time on assembly lines, warehouses (Amazon and other distro centers), other things that can be easily automated via robots. Optimus Gen 2 has progressed at an incredible speed in quality and the ability to self-learn: "Rise of the Machines". People get too focused on the cars, freezing video in Chicago sure was bad, and the stock took a serious hit this month (re: buying opportunity). I'm in Tesla for the Dojo long-haul. Boston Robotics has demo'ed some amazing 'bots only they are programmed to do it, Optimus learns - a game changer.

No matter how the economy is performing, every survey of the average American says it sucks. That speaks more to the psyche of the a stage consumer than it does about the economy. This also leads to a topic that is quite simple, but hardly ever acknowledged, what makes the US different than any other country that aids in our success? Answer:capitalism. (Duh) Such an obvious answer but frequently discounted.

Never underestimate this country and its consumers willingness to spend all the money they make, or borrow money to maintain their lifestyle. It’s what keeps the economic engine roaring. There’s always bumps in the road, yet once governments see tax revenues fall, they’ll incentivize the citizens to start spending again, and capitalism incentivizes people to deliver goods and services in the open market to make bank. Innovation allows the coming to do it more efficiently, so I hardly see the trend line slowing its upward approach for the foreseeable future, short term or long term. We keep hearing stories of doom and gloom for decades, fact is that it’s just noise to grab headlines for consumers of the media since people glom into negativity like 2 bits and SkiDumb are each other’s cock. We’ll be fine as a whole, but those that live below their means and save and invest will continue to prosper.

Money is rarely a math problem, but almost always a behavior problem that disciplined people concur.

^ dopey little pussy always looking for a fight, what a bore.

^^ lmfao! I own the space between your ears you emotionally triggered Ozempic abusing geriatric trick!

^ Fat and retarded what a jealous loser

Mate, two news items in the last day or so. Economy grew at over 3% in last 12 months. Also, the index that measures how people feel about the economy was up huge. Consumer confidence index maybe? Anyway, iirc it was up 11% to somewhere in the high 30%ish range. Still not great, but best since early 2021, again from memory of a WSJ article from earlier this week. We’re trending better.

If you wanna talk about inflation/prices, fuckin Taco Bell recently shocked the shit out of me. I almost never eat there, but I remember in college days hitting them up and buying like $15 worth of food and still having half left over after myself, my roommate, and the two random sluts we were bringing home at 3 am ate until we nearly exploded. A week or two ago a stripper asked me to hit the drive through for her, I spent like $18 and she ate every scrap of what she got. And she was a tiny little five foot nothing, 100 pounds soaking wet thing.

And Pub-Subs rock.

twentyfive: "problem we’re facing now even though inflation is tapering down, the past few years caused a run up in prices," Exactly, and Inflation uses different metrics than in 1980; if we used the same metrics as in 1980, Inflation would be a higher number. In 2022, Inflation in Colorado was 16% and that FUCKING Gov Polis still won (the GOP chick was a lousy communicator), and he agreed about the 16% in the debates. CO is going the way of CA. We are still underwater on wages off-setting inflation. In Year 1 if you gained 20 pounds (costs) , Year 2 you gained 6 pounds (costs), and you managed to lose 5 pounds (got a raise) in Year 3, you are still behind the 8-ball with inflation. There is going to be a reckoning with commercial real estate office space as so many are now working from home compared to pre-2020. I heard a number that NYC office space is like 50% empty? And they have a lot.

gammanu95: "Sinclair was right that the stock market hitting record highs is completely out of sync with other indicators and metrics indicating that the economy is extremely unhealthy." The market looks ahead 12-18 months, and the sentiment is Trump will win. Certainly a lot can happen over the next 9-10 months A LOT, and I expect it to be like Barbarians At The Gate To Rome. "News" (if you want to call them that) are lookin for ratings and all will be into the the propaganda of their choice. I think we are in a 1990s market and a long ways to go to another Year 2000 cratering. The Fed will tinker with rate cuts as Summer approaches to juice the economy and make people feel better even through gov't spending is out of control (I blame them all), Illegals are piling on the Welfare rolls increasing heavy unplanned costs to local/state budgets (CA has what a $42B deficit and they are adding on more spending as people evacuate the state), ect.

Dolfan: "Taco Bell" - I bought 3 McRibs (no meals just the sandwich) and it was $18, and the idiots forget the BBQ sauce and I didn't know until I got home; the ribs were like eating 30 year old shingles on a house in the middle of Nevada.

Mate27: "what makes the US different than any other country that aids in our success? Answer: capitalism. (Duh) Such an obvious answer but frequently discounted." Post-WWII Europe chose a cradle-to-grave/socialist economy, and America chose Consumer-Based capitalism. Sure, Europe was really trashed, no doubt, and ew had a PILE of debt for war spending. The Marshall Plan instituted was to re-start Germany, and people were still starving, As the tight reigns of the Marshall Plan were loosened, Germany started to thrive with open markets. U2's Bono is a BIG socialist and finally admitted about 10 years ago that the only solution for 3rd world shitholes is...Capitalism, however, those shitholes have authoritarian tyrants with guns who benefit themselves from aid they get from the USA and others. Speaking of guns, Magnum Shooting Center here has 20% everything this month. I have to get over to get a HK VP9 and Staccato XC on my To Do List - January has shot by WAY TOO FAST!

Yes, Government figures mean so much and are so honest. How stupid do you have to be to rely on Government figures for your argument when you fucking know people are struggling. You assholes buy food? Apply for a mortgage? Buy gas? Go to a concert? Do any of you dummies know the name Winston Smith and his contribution to Government figures?

I don't trust the government numbers in general, one reason being that often we see huge revisions a month or two later. For example, for jobs added in 2023, the revised data was somewhere around 70% of the headline data. However, I trust a broad survey more than I trust my own, or your own, anecdotal experience. I know that things like CPI calculations have changed over the years, and that under an older methodology it would be higher, and all of that. Very true. But comparing periods using the same methodology gives us the best picture we have. A survey of thousands of households and businesses is more trustworthy than the ten people you happen to ask about prices, who are influenced by a number of factors themselves, who on a whim answer a certain way.

So no, I don't trust government, no matter who's in charge. I certainly don't trust the likes of the FBI, who are themselves probably half of the population (due to baiting / infiltration) of the very terrorist groups and kiddie pron / sex trafficking rings they are trying to bust. But, I don't think there's a conspiracy at the BEA or BLS to fudge the numbers, not more than a rounding error anyway.

Mate:
"Money is rarely a math problem, but almost always a behavior problem that disciplined people concur."

Soooooo true.

When I did my MBA years ago my Stats Professor used a book called “How To Lie With Statistics “. Not that he taught that however so we’d be aware of how that can be manipulated for propaganda purposes-you need to really look under the hood, as Perot once said, to see how numbers were sliced/diced and digested.

Dolfan -

I know exactly what you mean. I remember when I was in high school and college you could go to Taco Bell with less than $10 and get a fucking feast. Them days are long gone.

Dolfan: "Taco Bell with less than $10 and get a fucking feast." Also, great Colonoscopy prep. Better than drinking a quart of Gatorade and 16 oz of Miralax.

>Gamma-nu is a women’s sorority

Oh man that's the most fantastic thing I learned today by far LMAO. A black women's sorority to boot ! How the heck do you explain choosing a board name like that?

I love Taco Bell, but only once a month.

del taco. better.