Bitcoin, Deja Vu

Approximately 3.5 years ago, I started a discussion by writing the following: “What do you think are the chances of Bitcoin price returning to $20,000 within the next 5 years?... If bitcoin hits $20,000 again, that’s a 426% total return” [https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=6417…]. The USD price of 1 BTC at that time was about $3700. Here are some of the responses:

jackob85: “not likely bitcoin will be $20k in 5 years.”
AZFourTwenty: “0.00%”
JimmyMcNulty: “What are the chances you lose all your money if you buy bitcoin v. losing all your money if you buy an S&P index fund?”
Mate72: “No more than 5-10% of your investable assets should go to speculation, such as bitcoin.”
skibum609: “Before investing a cent in bitcoin I would change it all into quarters and throw themn at people while I drove up and dopwn Las Vegas Blvd. Makes more sense financially.”

After starting that discussion, the USD price of Bitcoin went on to hit a local top of $13k that summer, dropped back down to $5k during the March 2020 Covid liquidity crisis, and then rose to a price greater than $60k, reaching an ATH of $69k (lol), in 2021. Currently, the price sits at $24k, which is greater than the $20k price to which I referred in the thread from 3.5 years ago.

-----

Today, I pose the same question, updated to today's situation: What do you think are the chances of Bitcoin price returning to $69,000 within the next 5 years? If the USD price of Bitcoin hits $69k again, that’s a 187% total return. Anybody wanna bet on it? Does anybody want to hold on to those depreciating dollars while the FED produces trillions of new dollars every year?

Here is a quick recap of what’s occurred in Bitcoin since the previous discussion was made:

1. Two sovereign nations have declared Bitcoin to be legal tender.
2. At least 41 publicly traded companies, around the world, hold BTC in their treasuries [https://bitcointreasuries.net/].
3. Senators Lummis and Gillibrand proposed a bipartisan bill to congress that would provide a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, called the “Responsible Financial Innovation Act” [https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapotheca…].
4. Jack Mallers’ company, Strike, announced a partnership with Blackhawk and NCR to bring payments over Bitcoin’s Lightning Network to commercial point-of-sale devices [https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysh…].
5. Annual users of Coinbase.com has increased by more than 3x, and active monthly users has increased by more than 8x as of 2021 [https://www.businessofapps.com/data/coin…].
6. China’s share of the total Bitcoin hashrate has fallen from 75% to 21%, whereas the United States’ share has increased from 4% to 38% [https://ccaf.io/cbeci/mining_map].
7. The Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC have acquired (printed) $10 trillion in assets [https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedec…].


LOL.

40 comments

  • Tetradon
    2 years ago
    Say your penis hasn't been in a woman's mouth in ten years without actually saying it.
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    Tetradon, you must have a fetish for being wrong, cuz it seems like the things you write are usually wrong.
  • docsavage
    2 years ago
    Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. The inflationary policies of the Fed have created multiple bubbles and the Bitcoin bubble is one of those bubbles. You have the Bitcoin bubble, stock market bubble, housing bubble etc.
    You can tell it is in a bubble because of the wild swings in value, as you mention in your comment. Something like that will never be considered a safe store of value, which is what is required for something to replace the dollar. Gold has been highly valued for thousands of years, so it is more likely to replace the dollar.
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    Let's focus on the bitcoin use cases and tech not the price. Bitcoin at $1 is the same tech as bitcoin at $100. The tech is useless for people who follow the law.
  • shailynn
    2 years ago
    You pose a great question. I believe it will climb again but how high? I think people were stuck at home with nothing to do, nothing to spend their money on so they bought Bitcoin. I seriously think Bitcoin needs to thank COVID for its rocketship rise.

    Now that money is becoming more tight and a recession is probably on the way (if we aren’t already there) added with a lot of inexperienced buyers got burned…. It will rise again but an event needs to happen to regain peoples interest. Does that happen a year from now or 10 years from now?
  • drewcareypnw
    2 years ago
    You don’t need to be a financial or technical specialist to see someone trying to sell snake oil. As far as I can tell, bitcoin is only useful if you’re a criminal trying to hide financial transactions, or an owner of btc trying to pump up the value.
  • datinman
    2 years ago
    You know what's not going to happen to my bank accounts, brokerage accounts, or real estate holdings? I am not going to inadvertently toss that ownership in the trash bin.


    https://fortune.com/2022/08/01/he-lost-8…
  • shailynn
    2 years ago
    ^ that sounds like a perfect Friday night for San Jose Guy.
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    Bitcoin maximalists don't understand most people do not want to be their own bank. They want professionals who must follow regulations and get audited regularly. Being your own bank means a simple mistake means your money is gone.
  • ilbbaicnl
    2 years ago
    Speculating in Bitcoin is not fundamentally better or worse than speculating in any other currency. Speculative "investing" is generally stupid, whether or not Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency is involved.

    If the FBI or Interpol or whoever were more competent, they could get leads on any crimes involving Bitcoin by doing decent data analysis on the Bitcoin Blockchain ledger. I mean, every frigin transaction is right there, for anyone to look at. The current system is that LE relies on credit card companies / Paypal / cashapp / etc. to block or report suspicious transactions.

    If Bitcoin became the world currency, that would be the end of monetary policy. A big, sudden change, not a good track record for these to turn out well.

    How would we pay strippers with Bitcoin?
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    Docsavage: “Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.”
    -True, but the only thing that really has intrinsic value is happiness. For all other things, the value is extrinsic to itself.

    “The inflationary policies of the Fed have created multiple bubbles and the Bitcoin bubble is one of those bubbles. You have the Bitcoin bubble, stock market bubble, housing bubble etc.
    You can tell it is in a bubble because of the wild swings in value,”
    -Please identify the bubble in the chart: https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/ (or is it just one, long, 13-year bubble?)


    BitCoinHodler: “Let's focus on the bitcoin use cases and tech not the price. Bitcoin at $1 is the same tech as bitcoin at $100.”
    -Technically, this is false; there have been several software developments since Bitcoin was valued at $1 per BTC. Most notably, the Lightning Network.

    “The tech is useless for people who follow the law.”
    -False. Given that there is no law (in most Western nations) against holding and using Bitcoin, every single person that has ever used Bitcoin serves as a counterexample to this obviously false statement.


    Desertscrub: “are we back to discussing this worthless use of blockchain technology? and to be very clear - this is a USE of a platform (BLOCKCHAIN)”
    -It’s so sad to see the buzzword “blockchain” be characterized as a “platform.”

    [Paraphrased] “crypto this, crypto that, blah blah blah.”
    -Why change the subject?


    Drewcareypnw: “As far as I can tell, bitcoin is only useful if you’re … an owner of btc trying to pump up the value.”
    -What function does Bitcoin serve to the person who is trying to pump up the value of Bitcoin?


    Datinman: “You know what's not going to happen to my bank accounts, brokerage accounts, or real estate holdings? I am not going to inadvertently toss that ownership in the trash bin.”
    -No, you certainly won’t do that with a bank account. But, you might just have those bank funds confiscated because they were never really yours to begin with. Or, that real estate might just be destroyed by a hurricane. On the other hand, now that Bitcoin has appreciated in value, most holders are quite cautious and savvy about how they secure their BTC.


    Desertscrub: [Paraphrased] “crypto this, crypto that, blah blah blah.”
    -Why change the subject?


    BitCoinHodler: “Bitcoin maximalists don't understand most people do not want to be their own bank. They want professionals who must follow regulations and get audited regularly. Being your own bank means a simple mistake means your money is gone.”
    -I think that’s false. IMO, most “maximalists” do understand that the average Joe has limited ability to be responsible. Having the power to be one’s own bank comes with responsibility. Conversely, the consequence of relinquishing that responsibility is impotence.


    Ilbbaicnl: “If Bitcoin became the world currency, that would be the end of monetary policy.”
    -Well… it would be the end of monetary policy changes enacted by an unelected set of about a dozen men in each country. There would still be a policy; the Bitcoin policy. Currently, 6.25 BTC every 10 mins.

    “How would we pay strippers with Bitcoin?”
    -QR code on her ass.
  • Uprightcitizen
    2 years ago
    New trends in stripper tats...QR codes
  • Uprightcitizen
    2 years ago
    Above the Vag would be new tramp stamp
  • drewcareypnw
    2 years ago
    “What function does Bitcoin serve to the person who is trying to pump up the value of Bitcoin?”

    Without bitcoin they’d have to sell Amway?
  • san_jose_guy
    2 years ago
    FTS, you would be smart guy, but you worry about stupid stuff.

    SJG
  • shailynn
    2 years ago
    ^ home much Bitcoin have you been given at the homeless shelter SJG?
  • san_jose_guy
    2 years ago
    Shailynn actually has quite a fan club, mostly old ladies. He loves getting bit coin from them because that way his mom doesn't know about it.

    SJG
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    "BlackRock Inc. is partnering with Coinbase Global Inc. to make it easier for institutional investors to manage and trade Bitcoin, marking a major push into cryptocurrencies for the world’s largest asset manager."

    -The world's richest asset manager is getting deep into Bitcoin. Meanwhile, dipshits desertscrub and BitCoinHodler think it's just a failed experiment / bubble. Newsflash for you fellas: "crypto" is not Bitcoin. Bitcoin miners are now helping to stabilize the electrical grid for the entire state of Texas, and you're conflating Bitcoin with centralized craptocurrencies? LOL.


    "Top BlackRock clients will be able to use its Aladdin investment-management system to oversee their exposure to Bitcoin along with other portfolio assets such as stocks and bonds, and to facilitate financing and trading on Coinbase’s exchange, according to a statement Thursday. THE FOCUS of the partnership ... 'WILL INITIALLY BE ON BITCOIN,' BlackRock said."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
  • twentyfive
    2 years ago
    ^ meanwhile Coinbase is losing money and trading at 40% of its IPO and Black Rock can afford to gamble even lose a bundle as one of the richest asset managers in the world.
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    ^ The point is that Blackrock would never partner with some financial firm in order to provide their clients easier access to something that is insignificant and of literally zero value. According to BitCoinHodler, people would be better off buying penny stocks than Bitcoin. According to skibum609, “Before investing a cent in bitcoin I would change it all into quarters and throw themn at people while I drove up and dopwn Las Vegas Blvd. Makes more sense financially.”

    Would Blackrock partner with a firm in order to provide sovereign wealth funds easier access to some no-name penny stock, or access to something that is worth less than throwing quarters at people on Las Vegas Blvd?

    LOL
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    I read about Blackrock doing this and immediately jumped onto here knowing FTS would be lying about it, lo and behold I was right LOL. This is the same guy who lied about Amazon accepting bitcoin. Hilarious. Stay shilling my friend.

    Blackrock is only collecting fees off of this, also in order to use this you MUST be a coinbase prime account holder. Here is the press release from coinbases blog. That Bloomberg article left out so much pertinent information, once you really delve into it Blackrock really isn't doing much.


    https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-selec…
  • twentyfive
    2 years ago
    ^ I didn't think it was relevant, but of course Black Rock would partner with anyone just to collect fees, which is all they're doing, Black Rock is just acting as a facilitator, collecting a fee and an intro, still it's only being sold through Coinbase and quite frankly they're in a downward spiral, losing money and Black Rock is profiting from their loss.
  • Tetradon
    2 years ago
    You know what's a great investment (of time, which is more precious than money)? Pimping bitcoin on a titty bar message board.

    Nothing says success like dozens of cherry-picked examples of how awesome bitcoin is, to a bunch of guys who care more about trading it for pussy.

    We've found the second-most autistic guy on TUSCL!
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    "Nothing says success like..."
    -Is that what you do on this forum, Tetradon? You attempt to show off your success in life by anonymously posting on a titty bar message board? Seek approval much?
  • Tetradon
    2 years ago
    ^ Lol, which of us is trying to show off here? You were the one bragging about an unimpressive degree, and you're off on another "look how much money I've made" thread.

    Let me guess, 2.25 inches.
  • ancientlurker
    2 years ago
    If you (generic) don't want to use bitcoin, then don't. No one is trying to make you. It's odd how many who don't like it feel the need to scream about it.

    For me it's a currency rather than an investment, so I try not to pay attention to the price. (But Dash actually works much better)
  • ulitimate1
    2 years ago
    I think Bitcoin will hit at least 28,000 before November, crash back to 17,000 early 2023, but move back up to 80,000 to 100,000 within a year of the first US Bitcoin ETF.

    BUT, I'm also an idiot who spelled ultimate wrong.
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    "If you (generic) don't want to use bitcoin, then don't. No one is trying to make you. It's odd how many who don't like it feel the need to scream about it."


    FTS has constantly said half truths and flat out lies, all I'm doing is correcting him so people not fully understanding of bitcoin can make an informed choice.
  • drewcareypnw
    2 years ago
    “No one is trying to make you” …my ass.

    Fts is on a strip club site pushing bitcoin, just like a million other would be junior level scan artists do on reddit , Facebook, twitter, whatever. They all think that if they convert enough fools to their little cult, the price will rise and then they will get rich. Bitcoin comes with a ready made fashionable anarcho-techbro anti-government and new tech narrative, which he is repeating here. His hope is that if he spends enough time on this, he’ll convince some idiot to buy in, and raise his boat a little.


    What he doesn’t grasp is that we’re all here because we have a hobby that is literally centered on dealing with scam artists. I can smell a ROB 10 feet away thanks to this hobby, and Fts is a ROB.

    I bet he doesn’t even have nice tits.




  • drewcareypnw
    2 years ago
    It’s a sad sad con, when you think about it.
  • ilbbaicnl
    2 years ago
    Why mess with Bitcoin? The tulip market is centuries-ripe for a big comeback: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mani… .
  • drewcareypnw
    2 years ago
    ^exactly.
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    It is amazing how Americans seem to have a negative view on crypto now. I see it brought up in public places and people (other than me) are shit talking it. Brings tears to my eyes its so beautiful.
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    BitCoinHodler/CTLennay: "...once you really delve into it Blackrock really isn't doing much."

    -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/11/blackroc…
    -https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/e…

    "Bitcoin is the oldest, largest, and most liquid cryptoasset, and is currently the primary subject of interest from our clients within the cryptoasset space." - BlackRock

    Does anybody care to share their opinions regarding the launch of this new Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock?
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    *crickets*
  • Tetradon
    2 years ago
    Yaaaaawwwwn

    You still here, Captain No Pussy?
  • MackTruck
    2 years ago
    Take me off ignored bitch
  • FTS
    2 years ago
    You still wrong?
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    That quote doesn't have any actionable things Blackrock is doing other than "we'll accept fees to manage your bitcoin". Just seems like a lot of fluff.
  • BitCoinHodler
    2 years ago
    30 minute long talk from Linus Neumann's talk during a blockchain conference- big fan of his and worth watching.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8W-Ga1r…
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