Approximately 3.5 years ago, I started a discussion by writing the following: “What do you think are the chances of Bitcoin price returning to $20,000 within the next 5 years?... If bitcoin hits $20,000 again, that’s a 426% total return” [tuscl.net]. The USD price of 1 BTC at that time was about $3700. Here are some of the responses:
jackob85: “not likely bitcoin will be $20k in 5 years.” AZFourTwenty: “0.00%” JimmyMcNulty: “What are the chances you lose all your money if you buy bitcoin v. losing all your money if you buy an S&P index fund?” Mate72: “No more than 5-10% of your investable assets should go to speculation, such as bitcoin.” skibum609: “Before investing a cent in bitcoin I would change it all into quarters and throw themn at people while I drove up and dopwn Las Vegas Blvd. Makes more sense financially.”
After starting that discussion, the USD price of Bitcoin went on to hit a local top of $13k that summer, dropped back down to $5k during the March 2020 Covid liquidity crisis, and then rose to a price greater than $60k, reaching an ATH of $69k (lol), in 2021. Currently, the price sits at $24k, which is greater than the $20k price to which I referred in the thread from 3.5 years ago.
Today, I pose the same question, updated to today's situation: What do you think are the chances of Bitcoin price returning to $69,000 within the next 5 years? If the USD price of Bitcoin hits $69k again, that’s a 187% total return. Anybody wanna bet on it? Does anybody want to hold on to those depreciating dollars while the FED produces trillions of new dollars every year?
Here is a quick recap of what’s occurred in Bitcoin since the previous discussion was made:
- Two sovereign nations have declared Bitcoin to be legal tender.
- At least 41 publicly traded companies, around the world, hold BTC in their treasuries [bitcointreasuries.net].
- Senators Lummis and Gillibrand proposed a bipartisan bill to congress that would provide a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, called the “Responsible Financial Innovation Act” [forbes.com].
- Jack Mallers’ company, Strike, announced a partnership with Blackhawk and NCR to bring payments over Bitcoin’s Lightning Network to commercial point-of-sale devices [forbes.com].
- Annual users of Coinbase.com has increased by more than 3x, and active monthly users has increased by more than 8x as of 2021 [businessofapps.com].
- China’s share of the total Bitcoin hashrate has fallen from 75% to 21%, whereas the United States’ share has increased from 4% to 38% [ccaf.io].
- The Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC have acquired (printed) $10 trillion in assets [yardeni.com].
LOL.

