OT: What are your investing thoughts going forward?

55 comments

• Mate27

  •

  3 years ago

  Papi, you can’t have it both ways. You’re playing a fools errand by trying to second guess yourself where the market is valued today. It doesn’t matter what the markets value is today, it only matters where it will be valued in the future, and In the time horizon you have left you still ha e a long period where the market will be much higher in the future than where it is today. Therefore if the market takes a crash you’ll just be buying in cheaper through dollar cost averaging, and you’ll be taking advantage of the markets dipping. Investors make money when the markets go down, not when they go up. Keep being patient and continue to maximize your investments while you’re still earning income. Anyone who is earning a paycheck should be hoping the market goes down, even if it is a crash. You should have at least 66-70% equities allocation, and scal that back to 50-60% allocation of equities when you retire. Some people who have a higher appetite for risk can have higher allocations of equities if they’re still working.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  Thanks for the reply @Meat Yeah - I def tend to be somewhat risk-adverse; although for the most-part I've been invested in the market since my 20s - I got spooked in 2009 and got out of the market after it had plunged a good chunk fearing it would fall much further; and didn't get back in as soon as I should've and that costed me (this time around; fearing another 2009 event, I wanted to try and get out b/f the shit-hit-the-fan and protect my current balance although of course IDK if indeed it will hit the fan) - my main concern is protecting my current balance - I guess perhaps I could go to cash but continue to buy via DCA while keeping my current balance on the sidelines for now but of course I'd be missing out on potential gains on my current balance - I'm still mulling it over.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  "... It doesn’t matter what the markets value is today, it only matters where it will be valued in the future ..." Yeah - and that is kinda of what I'm fearing - the future - for w/e reason I got this sense of a market-implosion w/ all the shit that's been going on - and I also don't trust the Dems in power and all their handouts and big government spending instead of trying to minimize spending - all this is just assumptions I'm making as I really don't know much about the technical aspect of the economy/market.
• Mate27

  •

  3 years ago

  In 10 years the Dow index will be over 70k, and the S&P 500 will have doubled, so any crash beteeen now and your retirement date will just be a cheaper buying opportunity for you to make more $& as an investor.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  “... In the time horizon you have left you still ha e a long period where the market will be much higher in the future than where it is today …” I agree about the long-term that the market would come back if there was an implosion (for lack of a better word) and at some point go higher than the high prior to the implosion – I just wanted to spare my current balance the “possible implosion” and then come back in when things seem (to me) more clear/sane (again to me) – of course this is pretty-much trying to time-the-market which hardly anyone can do let alone me. Back during the tech-bubble of 2000; the S&P I believe dropped 45% (the high was around August of 2000 at around 1500 and went down to about 835 in October of 2002 b/f it started to climb out and go on a run - so it was only about a bit over a 2-year bad stretch which is not bad): [view link] Also during the 2000 tech-bubble; the Nasdaq really took it on the chin – it went down but about 75% and it took ~15-years for it to get back to its 2000-level (~5000 in March 2000, didn’t get above 5000 again till around May of 2015): [view link] Of course – as the saying goes “past performance is no guarantee of future returns” and 2000s was a much different time. I’m not trying to be a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian – just the macro-things (for lack of a better-word) that are circling in my head.
• minnow

  •

  3 years ago

  I've heard 115 bandied about as a "gouge." Subtract your age from 115, and that's the percentage of your portfolio that you should have in equities.(Stocks). So a 50 yo should have 65% of investments in stock.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  “… Disclaimer: This is not financial advice …” LOL – yeah – I wasn’t trying to have someone hold my hand and tell me what to do b/c obviously no one knows what will happen and thus they wouldn’t wanna feel they led me down the wrong road – I just kinda wanted to take the temperature in the (TUSCL) room.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  "... if I was close to retirement, I would only do fixed income stuff on 401k ..." What kinda fixed-income are you referring to - bonds? CDs? Cash? Combo? Other?
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  "... I have a lot of super low risk/fee almost fixed income options on my 401k ..." I just wasn't clear and on what those are exactly or what type those are (other than cash) - but I don't want to force you to give a specific rec if that is what you are trying to avoid
• mark94

  •

  3 years ago

  First, evaluate your risk tolerance. Personally, I have faith the market will always go up as long as the time frame exceeds 5 years. So, I’m always 100% in a broad index fund. If you lack that faith, maybe you should be 80/20 or even 60/40. But, consider that with interest rates near 0%, bonds could take a big hit when rates eventually rise. Once you’ve decided the right mix for you, stick with it. About 95% of people who jump in and out of the market underperform people who just buy and hold. If you doubt that, think back to last March when all the smart people pulled their money out of the market because of CoVid. Since March 23, the S&P 500 has gone up 75%. Oops.
• JamesSD

  •

  3 years ago

  As long as the fed keeps printing money the stock market will stay high. As long as there is a pandemic the fed will keep printing money. I'm more worried about inflation than a market crash.
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  ^ the ole "don't fight the fed"
• Uprightcitizen

  •

  3 years ago

  Don't fight the Fed is the golden rule. i.e If the Fed is pumping money don't take the other side of that bet. There are players saying the Fed is overdoing it and I tend to agree. IMO we are heading to an epic bubble and the actions in the market seem to tell that story. Don't try and time it because 9/10 you will lose. Also if you don't participate you will definitely lose. Stay long and strong. I hedged this outcome with BTC but even if I diddnt
• Uprightcitizen

  •

  3 years ago

  ...I would still stay long
• Dave_Anderson

  •

  3 years ago

  While I no longer give much of a fuck about money, or anything else, and have become completely hopeless and black pilled about life on this planet, just using common sense I fear that hyper inflation is coming. While there may be some reason future trends with not conform to fundamental economic principles (perhaps the Fed or the government can soak up the excess money floating around), one can assume that that tgevecoansionary monetary and fiscal policies will eventually result in a glut of money and cause inflation to rise. This would mean that savers and cash hoarders
• Dave_Anderson

  •

  3 years ago

  will see the value of their cash plummet. Meaning one wants to be in the market or other investments that have the potential to increase in value as cash loses value. Maybe I'm wrong though. I did take macroeconomics classes in college and use common sense but there could be factors I'm misunderstanding. Regardless, I think cash is a bad idea in the near and mid-term future.
• CJKent_band

  •

  3 years ago

  @Papi I will continue investing in being happy and healthy (physically, mentally, emotionallly, spiritually, environmentally and socially) “Happiness is the highest form of health.” ~ Dalai Lama “Physical fitness and longevity are the essential ingredients in living a happy and active life. Taking care of your health should be your priority among others in your investment portfolio.” “Needless to say, being in top shape is always better than having six-digits in your bank account.” “5 Ultimate Reasons Why You Must Invest in Your Health” [view link]
• Dave_Anderson

  •

  3 years ago

  * Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. Which theoretically cause inflation and decrease in value of cash.
• Mate27

  •

  3 years ago

  People lose more money trying to protect their portfolio from losses of potential downturns in the market than by all other scams and products available on the market. Truth be told, an overwhelming amount of people (close to 98%) will go to conservative investments like cash and end up re-entering the market at a much higher level than if they would have just left it alone. Predicting where the market is moving is a fools errand, and you can take that statement to the bank.
• jackslash

  •

  3 years ago

  I've put all my money into strippers' thongs.
• twentyfive

  •

  3 years ago

  I just stay invested, don't really pay a lot of attention to the day to day, a few times a year I go over my portfolio, adjust allocations, and make sure I understand the fundamentals of what I own, try to keep my allocations between the lines, 60/40 equities/cash equivalents I maintain some non market type investments, private equity stuff, mostly real estate. My feeling is that in and out investing, wastes a lot of time, and costs more over the long term, than staying invested.
• Mate27

  •

  3 years ago

  ^^ truth, and this guy is 15 years older than you Papi.
• Tetradon

  •

  3 years ago

  Put your 401(k) into a target date portfolio that will automatically rebalance towards fixed income as you get closer to retirement. Do not time the market or pick stocks with it. If you want to play Warren Buffett, take a small portion of your savings, small enough that you won't miss it if it disappears, and do what you will. Don't buy anything on margin.
• Warrior15

  •

  3 years ago

  Of my financial assets, I'm about 70% equities. Have quite a bit more real estate than financial assets though. I'm very nervous about equities, but I"m not going to make any changes. Because of the progressives, we are going to slip back into recession and won't get out for a while. Small business is going to start to feel the pinch of the liberal policies and will respond by hiring fewer workers. The new minimum wage rules are just plain stupid. Health care costs are about to start going up again. I"m pretty pessimistic on the economy itself. But the stock market will find a way. Managed funds may start to outperform the indexes though .
• sinclair

  •

  3 years ago

  With the way the federal government is printing money, you don't want to just sit with cash in your account. Invest in a gold ETF or even buy some physical precious metals. Get out of riskier speculative stocks and shift your portfolio into more defensive stocks like Walmart, AT&T, Dollar General, Altria, Proctor & Gamble, Verizon, Coca Cola, McDonald's, etc. People will still be buying food, medicine, and paying their cell phone bills even if there is a bad recession. They are going to stop buying luxury clothes and cars. They will put off vacations or reconsider taking a Virgin Galactic shuttle to space. If you are flexible on your retirement date and stay relatively healthy, you can always just work a few more years until the economy is in a better place.
• mark94

  •

  3 years ago

  “They are going to stop buying luxury clothes and cars. “ The Fed has protected the investor class for many years. The rich are doing just fine. Better than fine.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  S&P 500 up 50% this year
• Papi_Chulo

  •

  3 years ago

  ^ that's pretty direct
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  10 tips of investing, #1 - be a investor, not a trader , dont overthink it, and dont make alot of moves in your acct , just buy more on the dips
• Nidan111

  •

  3 years ago

  My investment is life insurance. Gonna make my hot wife and kids rich when I croak. I don’t give two shits about my wealth. I will work until I die because I actually love what I do. So, i will spend while Alive. My family will retire when I die. That is my plan.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  S&P 500 up 31% in 2019, and up 18% 2020 (even with the whole world in lock down)
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  a bank only gives your 1/4 of a penny percent
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  i am up $120,000.00 just in 3 months, life is good
• BBBC

  •

  3 years ago

  ^ Settle down sweetie! We can watch our home movies and sword fight later 😘. I know how to cheer you up! 🥒👅🖒😉😁😎
• Studme53

  •

  3 years ago

  The average annual stock market return over the last 100 years is 9.4%. The includes the Great Depression and all other downturns.
• Daddillac

  •

  3 years ago

  For the most part I agree with Meat and that is the approach I have taken with my money. If this is truly a concern for you then you may consider splitting the ticket.... essentially split the account and use two different strategies. you having between 11 and 16 years till retirement, you could be conservative with some money that you would use first (11 year money) and more aggressive with your (16 year+) money. It also depends greatly on how much money we are talking about and how long you want that money to last
• mark94

  •

  3 years ago

  Individuals who pick stocks, and time the market, are essentially betting that they can outperform Institutional Investors. It’s insane. And, it will cost you. Do you know who’s selling you shares when you have a hunch that Acme Corp is about to pop ? Warren Buffet. Or, maybe it’s an Institutional Investor with 100 genius Finance PhDs, and a network of informers passing on insider information. The only strategy that makes sense is to buy a basket of stocks that represents the overall market then benefit from the 8%-10% average appreciation we’ve seen for the last century.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  i think i will buy a double wide in tampa (the lightning capital of the world) if they win today
• twentyfive

  •

  3 years ago

  ^ Tampa is the lightning capital of the United States the lightning capital of the world is actually Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela
• Tetradon

  •

  3 years ago

  @Mark94, I've talked about this elsewhere, but I used to be in that world. You have no idea how true that is. Another aspect you didn't mention was journalists. I've seen hedge fund managers offer "a weekend at my place in the Hamptons" in exchange for a hit piece on their short positions. Or air time on CNBC to talk the market in their preferred direction.
• jacej

  •

  3 years ago

  @Papi - It's "time in the market" not "timing the market." If you have a 401k plan, just set it and forget it. I'm about the same age as you, and I've just consistently put money into my 401k since I've been working. I put the money into a variety of funds - large, mid, and small cap, always 100% stock. I had a hard time believing that I would have enough to retire on just looking at the slow growth in my 20s to early 40s. But the power of compounding interest has really shown itself over the last several years, and I'm now cautiously optimistic that the retirement calculator projections are correct, and that I'll be able to retire quite comfortably. Unless you've got a lot of time on your hands to do research or have a job in the financial industry, timing market gains is really hard. I once had a brokerage account with about $100k in it and I had a stock broker manage it for me for about 2 years. Even though this person was supposedly a professional and was supposed to be able to read and time the market, he gave me more dogs than he gave me good trades. My 401k continued to grow steadily during the 2 years, while the broker barely made any gains in the 2 years I let him basically do any trades he wanted with my money. I pulled the plug, put the money back into mutual funds, and the gains have continued back on track. There are obviously guys out there that are a lot more savvy and have a lot more time than many (most?) of us do to play the stock market. But for regular people (like me), contributing consistently into a company 401k is probably the best way to go.
• Nidan111

  •

  3 years ago

  I’m in it for my family. Life insurance. Use my money to play hard until I die. Then, my family can be rich off of my demise. As long as I go out with a smile, it’s all good!
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  i had 2 great up weeks, so next week will be green too, because the clown show in DC is over now. i heard years ago, people that have 100k in the bank, live longer
• SanchoRG

  •

  3 years ago

  Just keep holding. I convert most of my incoming fiat into things that have limited supply like stocks, crypto, real estate etc. We aren't ever going to have a dollar shortage again, I think.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  me too, biden said if he is president it will be $2000, but biden fucked us with $1400
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  Sancho sounds like a good plan, just buy and hold your runners, i am bullish too, i missed the bus on crypto
• SanchoRG

  •

  3 years ago

  You are still early on crypto IMO.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  it is pretty high now, 50k, if you have some coins, i would buy a car or house with it just in case it drops
• SanchoRG

  •

  3 years ago

  The amount invested in stocks worldwide is like 80 trillion. Crypto just barely hit 1.5 trillion worldwide. Money supply from 1990-2020 (in the USA) increased like 9x - not sure if that follows the worldwide increase during that time period. I am guessing money supply increase from 2020-2050 will be a shitshow.
• MackTruck

  •

  3 years ago

  I buyin da Stonks and hatin suits!
• mark94

  •

  3 years ago

  The only reason people become stock brokers or financial advisors is to make money for themselves. The fastest way for an investor to lose money is to turn their money over to an advisor without controlling what they do, The best strategy for an investor is to educate themselves on investing then put their money into things they understand and control. Usually, that means keeping things simple which, as it turns out, has the best chance of succeeding.
• Mate27

  •

  3 years ago

  ^^ you know why they’re called brokers? Because you leave broker than before you meet.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  you cant go wrong buying gold and silver coins, unless they are fake
• shadowcat

  •

  3 years ago

  I plan to make just short term investments in pussy.
• bdirect

  •

  3 years ago

  like they say, the best things in life are expensive. (that is my saying)