OT: What are your investing thoughts going forward?
Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
Midway thru 2019 I had started to decrease my SCing to about 25% of what I used to SC (due to burnout - and 0% SCing since March of 2020 due to Covid) – this freed-up a decent chunk of cash which I put into the stock-market (midway thru 2019 I also moved into the market a decent amount of cash I’d had sitting in a separate internet-bank-account) – all this allowed me to catch up on my retirement investing (over the last few years I had put *some* $$$ towards my retirement but not as much as I needed/wanted to) – my nest-egg catch-up allowed me to “get back on track” to where I have a much better chance to get to what I need to get to for a comfortable (not fancy) retirement assuming the market on avg does “ok” (not necessarily great) until then.
Now that I’ve gotten on track w.r.t. my investments, and w/ the economy seeming so shaky (per my uneducated lens), I’m concerned all this “work”/catching-up will be swiftly undone in a swift market crash – of course no one has a crystal-ball to say if, when, or how bad, it will happen.
I keep vacillating as to whether I should do something, or just ride it out – i.e.:
1) part of me feels like getting out of the market and into cash (or something similar non-risky even if it’s a minor return) as to not lose my recent gains
2) part of me feels I should adjust my investment strategy instead – I’m currently into a low-cost S&P index fund (Voo) – right around the time of the pandemic I had moved out of my index-fund and went into the blue-chips (Amazon; Microsoft; Facebook; Google – investing the heaviest in Amazon the lightest in Google) – this served me well – but I recently got out of these stocks and into the Voo ETF b/c I was pissed at big-tech and didn’t wanna be involved w/ them (not saying this is a “smart investing move” and I know I’m still “invested” in them via my ETF) – anyway I had moved into the blue-chips around last March b/c I felt they would weather the turbulent pandemic better – now I’m wondering if we *are* indeed headed for turbulent times if the blue-chips will fare better than the overall-market and if I should move back into them
3) my last vacillating thought is just stay in the market w/ my low-cost diversified Voo ETF and continue to mostly do dollar-cost-averaging since I don’t know what will happen or when, and basically ride it out (I'm by no means a "sophisticated"/deeply-knowledgeable investor) – being 51 ys/o I have at least 11 years till my earliest retirement age (I know I’d be taking a SS haircut retiring at this age but is something I’d consider for various reasons) – and I have 16 years till my full-retirement age – given these time-frames I “assume” I’d have time to recover if there is a nasty market-downturn in the near-future
Part of me feels like getting out now and sitting it out till things seem more stable so as to protect my current balance – and part of me is feeling FOMO (fear of missing out) and feeling I may be making a mistake sitting out (part of me is thinking/assuming that perhaps the economy/market may have a bit of a run at least for a period of time, as we completely come out of the lockdown and pent-up-demand kicks-in and perhaps we get back to near full employment).
What are the thoughts of the TUSCL illuminati think w.r.t . the economy/market going-forward:
a) are you staying w/ your current/past strategies?
b) are you thinking about changing things up and if so how?
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Yeah - I def tend to be somewhat risk-adverse; although for the most-part I've been invested in the market since my 20s - I got spooked in 2009 and got out of the market after it had plunged a good chunk fearing it would fall much further; and didn't get back in as soon as I should've and that costed me (this time around; fearing another 2009 event, I wanted to try and get out b/f the shit-hit-the-fan and protect my current balance although of course IDK if indeed it will hit the fan) - my main concern is protecting my current balance - I guess perhaps I could go to cash but continue to buy via DCA while keeping my current balance on the sidelines for now but of course I'd be missing out on potential gains on my current balance - I'm still mulling it over.
Yeah - and that is kinda of what I'm fearing - the future - for w/e reason I got this sense of a market-implosion w/ all the shit that's been going on - and I also don't trust the Dems in power and all their handouts and big government spending instead of trying to minimize spending - all this is just assumptions I'm making as I really don't know much about the technical aspect of the economy/market.
I agree about the long-term that the market would come back if there was an implosion (for lack of a better word) and at some point go higher than the high prior to the implosion – I just wanted to spare my current balance the “possible implosion” and then come back in when things seem (to me) more clear/sane (again to me) – of course this is pretty-much trying to time-the-market which hardly anyone can do let alone me.
Back during the tech-bubble of 2000; the S&P I believe dropped 45% (the high was around August of 2000 at around 1500 and went down to about 835 in October of 2002 b/f it started to climb out and go on a run - so it was only about a bit over a 2-year bad stretch which is not bad):
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IN…
Also during the 2000 tech-bubble; the Nasdaq really took it on the chin – it went down but about 75% and it took ~15-years for it to get back to its 2000-level (~5000 in March 2000, didn’t get above 5000 again till around May of 2015):
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IX…
Of course – as the saying goes “past performance is no guarantee of future returns” and 2000s was a much different time.
I’m not trying to be a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian – just the macro-things (for lack of a better-word) that are circling in my head.
LOL – yeah – I wasn’t trying to have someone hold my hand and tell me what to do b/c obviously no one knows what will happen and thus they wouldn’t wanna feel they led me down the wrong road – I just kinda wanted to take the temperature in the (TUSCL) room.
What kinda fixed-income are you referring to - bonds? CDs? Cash? Combo? Other?
I just wasn't clear and on what those are exactly or what type those are (other than cash) - but I don't want to force you to give a specific rec if that is what you are trying to avoid
Once you’ve decided the right mix for you, stick with it. About 95% of people who jump in and out of the market underperform people who just buy and hold.
If you doubt that, think back to last March when all the smart people pulled their money out of the market because of CoVid. Since March 23, the S&P 500 has gone up 75%. Oops.
As long as there is a pandemic the fed will keep printing money.
I'm more worried about inflation than a market crash.
Don't try and time it because 9/10 you will lose. Also if you don't participate you will definitely lose. Stay long and strong.
I hedged this outcome with BTC but even if I diddnt
While there may be some reason future trends with not conform to fundamental economic principles (perhaps the Fed or the government can soak up the excess money floating around), one can assume that that tgevecoansionary monetary and fiscal policies will eventually result in a glut of money and cause inflation to rise. This would mean that savers and cash hoarders
Maybe I'm wrong though. I did take macroeconomics classes in college and use common sense but there could be factors I'm misunderstanding. Regardless, I think cash is a bad idea in the near and mid-term future.
I will continue investing in being happy and healthy (physically, mentally, emotionallly, spiritually, environmentally and socially)
“Happiness is the highest form of health.”
~ Dalai Lama
“Physical fitness and longevity are the essential ingredients in living a happy and active life. Taking care of your health should be your priority among others in your investment portfolio.”
“Needless to say, being in top shape is always better than having six-digits in your bank account.”
“5 Ultimate Reasons Why You Must Invest in Your Health”
https://www.thatericalper.com/2019/06/25…
I maintain some non market type investments, private equity stuff, mostly real estate.
My feeling is that in and out investing, wastes a lot of time, and costs more over the long term, than staying invested.
If you want to play Warren Buffett, take a small portion of your savings, small enough that you won't miss it if it disappears, and do what you will. Don't buy anything on margin.
The Fed has protected the investor class for many years. The rich are doing just fine. Better than fine.
Do you know who’s selling you shares when you have a hunch that Acme Corp is about to pop ? Warren Buffet. Or, maybe it’s an Institutional Investor with 100 genius Finance PhDs, and a network of informers passing on insider information.
The only strategy that makes sense is to buy a basket of stocks that represents the overall market then benefit from the 8%-10% average appreciation we’ve seen for the last century.
I once had a brokerage account with about $100k in it and I had a stock broker manage it for me for about 2 years. Even though this person was supposedly a professional and was supposed to be able to read and time the market, he gave me more dogs than he gave me good trades. My 401k continued to grow steadily during the 2 years, while the broker barely made any gains in the 2 years I let him basically do any trades he wanted with my money. I pulled the plug, put the money back into mutual funds, and the gains have continued back on track.
There are obviously guys out there that are a lot more savvy and have a lot more time than many (most?) of us do to play the stock market. But for regular people (like me), contributing consistently into a company 401k is probably the best way to go.
The best strategy for an investor is to educate themselves on investing then put their money into things they understand and control. Usually, that means keeping things simple which, as it turns out, has the best chance of succeeding.