Herd immunity may be close
mark94
Arizona
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-h…
Got something to say?
Start your own discussion- Strip Club List
- What's New
- Reviews
- Top 40
- Articles
- Discussions
- Forums
- Unpublished Reviews
- Unpublished Articles
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-h…
50 comments
https://tuscl.net/photos/5f0252ec0b44b
And, we haven’t rolled out the serum test in volume, which will reveal people who were infected in prior months.
Now, add in the people who are immune because they’ve been exposed to the right kind of cold bug ( coronavirus ) in the last year.
There could realistically be 50 million people in the US who are currently immune to CoVid 19.
We need more serum tests to predict where we stand on a region by region basis. For example, there are plans to use a serum test on all U of A and ASU students prior to this fall. That a large enough sample that it will give a very good idea of what percent of total Arizona residents are immune.
It doesn’t require 100% of the population for herd immunity to kick in. A level of 50% might be all it takes to slow, or stop, the spread.
If we are at 50 million now, it will already slow the spread. Some regions are already seeing that.
I think with the current situation that there is no unringing the bell here, with so many people infected even shutting down things will only have a modest effect. If there is at least one infected person in every circle the rest of the souls in that circle will eventually get sick. We have already reached a critical mass of infections where it cannot be stopped just by semi-isolating the known cases.
Not exactly what I was thinking - w.rt. "running its course", I was thinking perhaps the virus either on it's own or via herd-immunity, becoming less infectious and barely lethal.
So this is just a more likely explanation why the vast majority of people don't suffer seriously from Covid-19. It still sucks to be in that 10%-20% of people that don't have an asymptomatic or mild case or the 1%-5% of people that have a very serious or severe or even fatal case. So we're back to where we started...
So, something is going on, in spite of the inflammatory headlines about a rise in confirmed cases.
Related note, a friend in Alabama has an idiot daughter that went to one of these catch Covid parties. She is positive and now flu-level sick. They kicked her out and she is living with a friend that also caught it at the party. They are more concerned that they did not win the pool than having Covid. This behavior just defies logic.
Don’t get overly excited. The death rate going down may be from one of three things or more probably a combination of two or all three:
1. The newer cases are more and more among a younger population who should have the advantage of youth to keep them alive.
2. Treatment protocols more and more are to hit a patient early with everything available; antibiotics, an anti-coagulant to prevent blood clots, remdesivir, and O2.
3.There have been some signs of a mutation which makes the virus MORE contagious but LESS deadly. This last point is the most sketchy so don’t put a lot of faith in it.
As to all the studies coming out I’ll put this tactfully, take them with a grain of salt. The data is insufficient to draw any conclusions and the real peer reviewed studies won’t occur until this is all over. What is going to happen is unfortunately still too early to predict. If the virus is like HIV and mutates too quickly to produce a vaccine then it will likely be around for a long time. Or if this is a repeat of 2002 and 2012 then the virus will kind of just fade away on its own before a vaccine is ever produced (perhaps due to herd immunity but we don’t know that to be true).
The best thing that people can do right now is to protect themselves as best that they can as is appropriate to their own individual circumstances and live their lives the same way. And probably the best advice would be to stop fixating on things that are beyond your control and go back to telling lies about all the pussy begging for your attention.
The last point of the virus mutating into a more contagious or infectious disease is largely from studies of the D614G genome mutation of the virus that is also more infective in attaching to and affecting more parts of the body via ACE2 receptors. This would actually make the virus more deadly or at least harmful in short and long term health effects on an individual level. The only reason the mutation appears less deadly or not more deadly is because more positive results are showing up (symptomatic infections) diluting the death rate. This would also make it appear more contagious, although the more people that get infected, the more likely the disease spreads (often silently) which doesn't necessarily mean more contagious. Also as more people die out, the more virulent genomes or variants of the virus also dissipate since the virus can only reproduce in people, while the less virulent genomes (causing less and milder symptoms or often no symptoms at all) move on in greater numbers, but more deadly variants will always be out there until the virus is eradicated...
____________
Yes, I remember reading that somewhere. In the movies, mutations make the virus more deadly; in real-life viruses become less deadly for the reason you mentioned.
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen…
For the last 13 weeks of 2019, the percentage was 5.7%. We are essentially back to normal. Of course, we need to see if this continues for the next few weeks.
“Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their face would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of COVID-19.”
@mark94 - It's natural for other illnesses to decline because we are still into a 3 months long lockdown, and have mostly peaked from the first wave. The population center of the U.S. is in the midwest to northeast which is an area where the virus pretty much first started at in March, for the U.S.
Nobody appears to know enough about the virus yet. There will be more posts about herd immunity, and about break throughs, and we still don’t know enough to have a definitive answer.
This will continue until either the spread of the virus dies down and decreases the fear to a minimum - or until an effective treatment or vaccine is developed. Not much else will decrease this craze.
Again, isolated reports and i have no idea exactly how common it is, but if it does become a thing (also Spain conducted a very large antibody survey recently and discovered only around 5% nationwide currently had detectable antibodies compared to the 60%+ needed for herd immunity), you can kiss the idea of natural herd immunity good bye...
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/g…
More bullshit
For the record, I think Meat72 nailed it.
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/heal…
Meanwhile, headlines scream about “ confirmed cases” going up in some states, especially those where testing is increasing.
Personally, I’d rather have a confirmed case, with no symptoms than be, you know, dead. But, maybe that’s just me.