Herd immunity may be close

I will volunteer to quarantine in a house full of strippers for six months. I will risk all contact and uhm so we can fully test.

I guess don't follow the herd would not apply here.

How long does the herd immunity last? With the common flu, it cycles every year even if you’ve had it the prior year, With the annual mutations.

It's possible. We really need wider testing in the US to figure out what population has already been exposed.

Tiny sample is the key term

Herd Immunity, TUSCL-style

https://tuscl.net/photos/5f0252ec0b44b

There are 3 Million confirmed cases of CoVid 19 in the US. Many health experts think the actual number is 10 times this. We simply haven’t tested the entire population. If someone got the bug, but showed no symptoms, it’s unlikely they have been tested. It’s only in recent weeks that we’ve been testing apparently healthy people.

And, we haven’t rolled out the serum test in volume, which will reveal people who were infected in prior months.

Now, add in the people who are immune because they’ve been exposed to the right kind of cold bug ( coronavirus ) in the last year.

There could realistically be 50 million people in the US who are currently immune to CoVid 19.

We need more serum tests to predict where we stand on a region by region basis. For example, there are plans to use a serum test on all U of A and ASU students prior to this fall. That a large enough sample that it will give a very good idea of what percent of total Arizona residents are immune.

It doesn’t require 100% of the population for herd immunity to kick in. A level of 50% might be all it takes to slow, or stop, the spread.

If we are at 50 million now, it will already slow the spread. Some regions are already seeing that.

The genie is out of the bottle - I don't think the spread can be contained unless harsh lockdowns further affecting the economy are imposed and there's little appetite for that unless we get a lot of people dying in hospital hallways b/c they can't get treatment. - we'll probably have to ride this out till the virus either stops being a serious mortality risk (including sufficient immunity), or we have some kind of treatment/cure.

Papi - I think what you mean is that the virus will have run it's course when all the old and at risk people are dead?
I think with the current situation that there is no unringing the bell here, with so many people infected even shutting down things will only have a modest effect. If there is at least one infected person in every circle the rest of the souls in that circle will eventually get sick. We have already reached a critical mass of infections where it cannot be stopped just by semi-isolating the known cases.

They talk about the R factor, which is the average number of people infected by someone who is already infected. At first, that might be 2 or 3 people, which means the disease spreads exponentially. As time goes on, more people are immune and the R factor goes down. Once we get to 50% to 70% immunity, the spread of the virus will slow to an R factor of 1 or less. At that point, the number of people infected trends down. It doesn’t completely disappear but it stops being a pandemic.

Mark94, the majority of laypeople simply don't understand this concept. Unfortunately the media did too good a job scaring the shit out of otherwise critical thinking capable people. I gave up trying to explain and simply lead my family and company the best I'm able.

Many people treated the reopening as "awesome - I get to go back to living my life like before"

"... Papi - I think what you mean is that the virus will have run it's course when all the old and at risk people are dead ..."

Not exactly what I was thinking - w.rt. "running its course", I was thinking perhaps the virus either on it's own or via herd-immunity, becoming less infectious and barely lethal.

Problem is that there is so much misinformation out there.

Even if that study is legit, all that it says is that people that have been exposed to any coronaviruses before and recovered well from them would have a strong t-cell response, lowering the need for an antibody response, not that up to 80% of all people are actually immune. Even worse, is the implication that a large number of people don't develop antibodies at all when they develop Covid-19, making herd immunity even less likely and antibody tests largely useless even if they are accurate; most are terribly inaccurate.

So this is just a more likely explanation why the vast majority of people don't suffer seriously from Covid-19. It still sucks to be in that 10%-20% of people that don't have an asymptomatic or mild case or the 1%-5% of people that have a very serious or severe or even fatal case. So we're back to where we started...

According to the CDC, the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza have been declining for 10 straight weeks, the agency said on its website, suggesting COVID-19 may cease to qualify as an epidemic in the next few weeks.

So, something is going on, in spite of the inflammatory headlines about a rise in confirmed cases.

Deaths seem to trail reported cases by 3-4 weeks. Hospitalizations are up. I hope not, but we will probably see the deaths start to rise again in a week or two. BUT counteract that with the fact that younger people are more of the second wave and we seem to be better at treating it.

Related note, a friend in Alabama has an idiot daughter that went to one of these catch Covid parties. She is positive and now flu-level sick. They kicked her out and she is living with a friend that also caught it at the party. They are more concerned that they did not win the pool than having Covid. This behavior just defies logic.

@mark94 “So, something is going on…”

Don’t get overly excited. The death rate going down may be from one of three things or more probably a combination of two or all three:

1. The newer cases are more and more among a younger population who should have the advantage of youth to keep them alive.

2. Treatment protocols more and more are to hit a patient early with everything available; antibiotics, an anti-coagulant to prevent blood clots, remdesivir, and O2.

3.There have been some signs of a mutation which makes the virus MORE contagious but LESS deadly. This last point is the most sketchy so don’t put a lot of faith in it.


As to all the studies coming out I’ll put this tactfully, take them with a grain of salt. The data is insufficient to draw any conclusions and the real peer reviewed studies won’t occur until this is all over. What is going to happen is unfortunately still too early to predict. If the virus is like HIV and mutates too quickly to produce a vaccine then it will likely be around for a long time. Or if this is a repeat of 2002 and 2012 then the virus will kind of just fade away on its own before a vaccine is ever produced (perhaps due to herd immunity but we don’t know that to be true).

The best thing that people can do right now is to protect themselves as best that they can as is appropriate to their own individual circumstances and live their lives the same way. And probably the best advice would be to stop fixating on things that are beyond your control and go back to telling lies about all the pussy begging for your attention.

Great advice from BabyDoc. I like the last line - as that’s something I agree with too!

Miami restaurants and gyms ordered to close again

Great advice ^^^

@BabyDoc
The last point of the virus mutating into a more contagious or infectious disease is largely from studies of the D614G genome mutation of the virus that is also more infective in attaching to and affecting more parts of the body via ACE2 receptors. This would actually make the virus more deadly or at least harmful in short and long term health effects on an individual level. The only reason the mutation appears less deadly or not more deadly is because more positive results are showing up (symptomatic infections) diluting the death rate. This would also make it appear more contagious, although the more people that get infected, the more likely the disease spreads (often silently) which doesn't necessarily mean more contagious. Also as more people die out, the more virulent genomes or variants of the virus also dissipate since the virus can only reproduce in people, while the less virulent genomes (causing less and milder symptoms or often no symptoms at all) move on in greater numbers, but more deadly variants will always be out there until the virus is eradicated...

So how many of you don't mind dying or losing loved ones in yhe name of herd immunity?

@Dirk: "Also as more people die out, the more virulent genomes or variants of the virus also dissipate.."
____________
Yes, I remember reading that somewhere. In the movies, mutations make the virus more deadly; in real-life viruses become less deadly for the reason you mentioned.

I heard about another study where only 5% of the people who got the disease had antibodies. Meaning herd immunity is likely impossible.

I read a bunch of studies that all contradicted each other and were wrong. Looking at what is going on in this country worrying about Covid seems like a luxury. Kind of funny that the chief asshole in Atlanta has the disease. I wonder if she was protesting or getting full contact lap dances.

Florida has run out of Remdesivir

In my state I have a better chance of dying in an accident or from heart or cancer issues. I don't much concern myself with them, nor do I with this virus.

Fauci’s only talent is surviving inside a bureaucracy. For forty years he has thrived by sounding knowledgeable and serious while avoiding blame for anything. The only positive thing I can say about him is that he isn’t as bad as the worthless fuck who runs the CDC.

It's just not the risk of dying from COVID that is the issue. It's the possibility of all the other things it can do to you while you recover and the rest of your life. Yeah, you may have a better chance of DYING from heart disease.... if you have it..... or DYING from an auto accident.... IF you get in one but, do you want to risk the other health issues this shit can cause?

Stuff like this:

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen…

“Based on death certificate data, the percentage of (total U.S.) deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26,” the CDC noted, adding that this was the 10th-straight week of declining deaths.

For the last 13 weeks of 2019, the percentage was 5.7%. We are essentially back to normal. Of course, we need to see if this continues for the next few weeks.

Here’s your quote of the day:

“Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their face would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of COVID-19.”

@LongBall That's true for just about every other illness and isn't something novel to COVID-19.

@mark94 - It's natural for other illnesses to decline because we are still into a 3 months long lockdown, and have mostly peaked from the first wave. The population center of the U.S. is in the midwest to northeast which is an area where the virus pretty much first started at in March, for the U.S.

I first heard that hand sanitizers did no good. Now you can find some on the shelf where I shop after 3 months of empty shelves. What is true? What is not?

Reports from NYC that parts of the city have reached 70% immunity.

My view is - there is a rush to get any news about the virus to the forefront almost immediately. In this rush, lots of questionable news is being pushed out.

Nobody appears to know enough about the virus yet. There will be more posts about herd immunity, and about break throughs, and we still don’t know enough to have a definitive answer.

This will continue until either the spread of the virus dies down and decreases the fear to a minimum - or until an effective treatment or vaccine is developed. Not much else will decrease this craze.

There are isolated reports in the US of people getting reinfected. Not the long tail cases where someone just deals with the disease for weeks and months before apparently recovering and then getting sick again and still dealing with it. No, i mean positive test, recovery, negative test, sometimes even donating plasma afterwards, seemingly recovered for months and then boom reinfected recently.

Again, isolated reports and i have no idea exactly how common it is, but if it does become a thing (also Spain conducted a very large antibody survey recently and discovered only around 5% nationwide currently had detectable antibodies compared to the 60%+ needed for herd immunity), you can kiss the idea of natural herd immunity good bye...

There are reports that some of the lab workers from Wuhan have defected and are cooperating with intelligence agencies about the origins of CoVid. Makes sense. If they had stayed in China, the government would have silenced them.

People are getting reinfected, the virus is also mutating, don’t put your money on herd immunity being reached anytime soon.
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/g…

^^ Lol... Vox.com.

@Mark94
More bullshit

Vox lol. How silly are you lol.

There’s no herd immunity with influenza or the common cold. People get vaccinated every year, especially if you’re in a high risk category (elderly) to lessen the impact of you do get influenza. The same will hold true with Covid.

It would be GREAT if a vaccine could protect you from the novel coronavirus for an entire year. Early studies show that antibodies to the virus disappear somewhere between 5 weeks and 3 months after infection.

I find it amusing that some of you are willing to believe Qanon, but not Vox. That’s exactly what Trump has been pushing for, a bunch of lemmings willing to take him at his every word. “The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears, it was their final, most essential command.”

For the record, I think Meat72 nailed it.

Mark, you are completely delusional. Get some real news sources.

No herd immunity; no vaccine. Society adjusts. News at eleven.

The Mayo Clinic is jumping on the “we may be closer to herd immunity than previous thought” bandwagon.

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/heal…

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just released data showing that deaths from covid 19 have declined for the 12th straight week.

Meanwhile, headlines scream about “ confirmed cases” going up in some states, especially those where testing is increasing.

Personally, I’d rather have a confirmed case, with no symptoms than be, you know, dead. But, maybe that’s just me.