We are 100 times safer than a few weeks ago
mark94
Arizona
The headline says it all. If you follow this guy’s math/logic, it’s a good explanation of why we are much safer now at a time when deaths are peaking.
https://news.yahoo.com/100-times-safer-n…
https://news.yahoo.com/100-times-safer-n…
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Dr. Dogan is the co-founder and research director of Insider Monkey. He has a Ph.D. in financial economics and he has been doing quantitative stock research for more than a decade. You can reach him here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/inan-ian%E2%…
1.) Coronavirus Fatality Rate or Death Percentage: The Most Accurate Estimate
Published on February 29, 2020 at 1:24 pm by Inan Dogan, PhD in News,Tech
published @ https://www.elitetrader.com/
"Recap:
We don’t know how many people are actually infected with the new coronavirus, but we have a pretty good idea about the number of people who died because of COVID-19. That’s why our best estimate is very likely to be higher than the actual fatality rate. Since South Korea tested around 1 out of every 1000 people and no other country with widespread infections tested a higher proportion of its population, South Korea’s 0.546% fatality rate is closest to the actual fatality rate of the new coronavirus.
We wouldn’t be wrong to assume that COVID-19’s fatality rate is not more than 0.5%. This means the new coronavirus’ fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.2% and 0.5%. This is a wide range, but it is still narrow enough to make very educated guesses about the future. One implication is that only one out of every 200 to 500 infected people will die due to the new coronavirus. This means this new coronavirus isn’t as deadly as what most people currently believe. This also means that there are far more infected people than we identified. For example, Iran identified less than 400 infections, but the actual number of infections in Iran at this moment is anywhere from 6800 and 17,000.
Please keep in mind that our coronavirus mortality rate in humans is an estimate for the entire population. Coronavirus fatality rates for different age groups, genders, and co-morbidities are different and will be shared in other articles."
2.) Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
Published on March 20, 2020 at 2:50 pm by INAN DOGAN, PHD in Economy,ETF Trading,Market Movers,News @ Insider Monkey.
"Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000. We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks. That’s why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks."
The problem is [that economists and practitioners] never abandon the bell curve.
They are like medieval astronomers who believe the sun revolves around the earth and are furiously tweaking their geo-centric math in the face of contrary evidence.
They will never get this right because their assumptions are rong.
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7170…
New Jersey as a whole might be around 50x safer than other typical cities or states elsewhere. New Orleans and Detroit about 40x safer. Chicago about 20x safer. The black communities in those urban areas around 80x+ safer. They've already paid the price and still paying the price of not socially/physically distancing. For now anyway. The immunity from coronaviruses (all seven of them that have moved from animals to humans) in general only seems to last a year or so at most...
And the ocean front property for sale as everyone knows is in Las Vegas after the big Cali earthquake Arizona is not in play at all
Um, 25, I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the accuracy of the numbers is critical in mathematics.
That 25% you were ascribing the the U.S. does indeed assume that the worldwide case numbers are accurate.
***For 25's Math 101 education***
A percentage of a total is calculated by dividing the numerator, which is the sample (in this case, # of U.S. cases) by the denominator, which is the total population (in this case, # of worldwide cases). So if the denominator of worldwide cases is dramatically under-reported, then the resulting % attributable to the U.S, will look higher than it actually is. This is simple mathematics, lol.
Good thing for you that swimming around in your in-ground pool and driving around in your very expensive SUV, while you wish many more months of lockdowns upon your suffering hourly workers, doesn't require higher math skills. 😉
Let's get back to work !
“A new study argues that city subways and buses were a “major disseminator” of the coronavirus in the Big Apple.
The paper, by MIT economics professor and physician Jeffrey Harris, points to a parallel between high ridership “and the rapid, exponential surge in infections” in the first two weeks of March — when the subways were still packed with up to 5 million riders per day — as well as between turnstile entries and virus hotspots.“
Much of the country has been sheltering in place for a month now. Because of that, relatively few people have been infected during the last couple weeks. By now, most of the people who are going to die are already in the hospital. The rate of hospital admissions are dropping. The number of people being infected on a daily basis is likely a fraction of new infections taking place 3 weeks ago.
The risk you’ll be infected during your next grocery run is almost zero if you live outside a hot zone.
We really are on a bell curve. The graph of new infections would show us at the tail end. Pretty much done ( until the next wave). A graph of hospitalizations would be half way down the backside of the curve. A graph of deaths would show us over the hump but still pretty high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
On another note - they are saying the virus actually came out of Chinese lab when an intern got infected - I would often see this as fake-news but not sure now.
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?
On the first question, it is beginning to look likely. On the second question, it is a clear and unambiguous yes. We know China stopped travel from Wuhan to other parts of China but allowed millions of tourists from China to travel around the world, carrying the virus with them.
Had China been honest, borders would have been closed to people from Wuhan and all this death and destruction avoided. What price will China pay for this ?
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?"
I have no doubts that the answers are yes to both questions.
Wish the rest of world would deduct what this virus has cost from all the notes China owns
BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.
The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gi…
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/health-…
The stem cell treatment seems to improve immune response in advanced cases, that is prevent the overactive immune response (cytokine storm) that ends up causing multi-organ system failure. Again, promising. Even if both of these treatments do end up being effective and safe treatments, they're nowhere near available at scale for the widespread population in the immediate or even intermediate future. Months away, even though these treatments are available right now. Also, these seem to be treatments for the advanced cases, which lowers the death count which is very useful, but hasn't shown yet to be applicable in preventing hospitalizations and serious physical long term damage altogether, which would be much more valuable in improving consumer confidence, you know, just a flu...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-cl…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who-issu…
https://youtu.be/DhRwlLqaYVY
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/coronavi…