Inan Dogan, PhD
Dr. Dogan is the co-founder and research director of Insider Monkey. He has a Ph.D. in financial economics and he has been doing quantitative stock research for more than a decade. You can reach him here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/inan-ian%E2%…
1.) Coronavirus Fatality Rate or Death Percentage: The Most Accurate Estimate
Published on February 29, 2020 at 1:24 pm by Inan Dogan, PhD in News,Tech
published @ https://www.elitetrader.com/ "Recap:
We don’t know how many people are actually infected with the new coronavirus, but we have a pretty good idea about the number of people who died because of COVID-19. That’s why our best estimate is very likely to be higher than the actual fatality rate. Since South Korea tested around 1 out of every 1000 people and no other country with widespread infections tested a higher proportion of its population, South Korea’s 0.546% fatality rate is closest to the actual fatality rate of the new coronavirus.
We wouldn’t be wrong to assume that COVID-19’s fatality rate is not more than 0.5%. This means the new coronavirus’ fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.2% and 0.5%. This is a wide range, but it is still narrow enough to make very educated guesses about the future. One implication is that only one out of every 200 to 500 infected people will die due to the new coronavirus. This means this new coronavirus isn’t as deadly as what most people currently believe. This also means that there are far more infected people than we identified. For example, Iran identified less than 400 infections, but the actual number of infections in Iran at this moment is anywhere from 6800 and 17,000.
Please keep in mind that our coronavirus mortality rate in humans is an estimate for the entire population. Coronavirus fatality rates for different age groups, genders, and co-morbidities are different and will be shared in other articles."
2.) Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
Published on March 20, 2020 at 2:50 pm by INAN DOGAN, PHD in Economy,ETF Trading,Market Movers,News @ Insider Monkey.
"Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000. We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks. That’s why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks."
This guy has a Ph.D. in “financial economics”; a branch of economics based on the idea that risk is distributed in the shape of a bell curve, an assumption that is flawed...
The problem is [that economists and practitioners] never abandon the bell curve.
They are like medieval astronomers who believe the sun revolves around the earth and are furiously tweaking their geo-centric math in the face of contrary evidence.
They will never get this right because their assumptions are rong.
That guy actually had very accurate projection models and death rate percentages. More accurate than many governments did. He's wrong about it being 100x safer than a few weeks ago though. Only NYC is 100x safer than most other cities. That is anyone can probably go to NYC right now, infected or not, and not likely infect another person if he's infected or get infected by someone else if he's not. Because NYC already has 50% or more of their population already infected. Possibly 80%+. Any "new" cases that show up in the next few weeks will almost all be cases that are already infected and incubating right now. And those numbers are already shrinking. And after that, new cases will almost come to a complete halt, with just a few slowly trickling their way through the dwindling uninfected population and the rest of new cases being imported. That is the theory anyway. This is based on a true fatality rate of .5% to 1%. We'll soon see in a week or so. Hence my hyperbolic discussion about NYC a few days ago based on that German study in Gangelt:
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7170…
New Jersey as a whole might be around 50x safer than other typical cities or states elsewhere. New Orleans and Detroit about 40x safer. Chicago about 20x safer. The black communities in those urban areas around 80x+ safer. They've already paid the price and still paying the price of not socially/physically distancing. For now anyway. The immunity from coronaviruses (all seven of them that have moved from animals to humans) in general only seems to last a year or so at most...
We’re doing a great job the United States has about 4.24% of the world’s population and we have close to 25% of the total COVID-19 cases don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back.
^^^ you really believe in the accuracy of reporting #s from communist countries like china, Russia, and others? If so then you’re a special kind of something.
Still it’s not necessary to believe the accuracy of the numbers to come to my conclusions my statement is simple mathematics, you’re just trolling for shits and giggles.
Th United SDtates had the fattest population on earth and certain communities here have no fucking clue on how to do anything right. In addition we spend astonomical and idiotic amounts of our health care dollars on keeping the very inform alive at all costs. Thats why our death rate is higher, espeacially when you compare it to lying dcumbag countries favored by democrtas like China and Iran. Should have let the virus take its course and moved on.
===> "Still it’s not necessary to believe the accuracy of the numbers to come to my conclusions my statement is simple mathematics, you’re just trolling for shits and giggles."
Um, 25, I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the accuracy of the numbers is critical in mathematics.
That 25% you were ascribing the the U.S. does indeed assume that the worldwide case numbers are accurate.
***For 25's Math 101 education***
A percentage of a total is calculated by dividing the numerator, which is the sample (in this case, # of U.S. cases) by the denominator, which is the total population (in this case, # of worldwide cases). So if the denominator of worldwide cases is dramatically under-reported, then the resulting % attributable to the U.S, will look higher than it actually is. This is simple mathematics, lol.
Good thing for you that swimming around in your in-ground pool and driving around in your very expensive SUV, while you wish many more months of lockdowns upon your suffering hourly workers, doesn't require higher math skills. 😉
And you suppose the number of cases in the US is accurate, and adjust any way you, like we still have per capita more cases than those country you're pointing to as great examples. Fact is the USA has only 4.24% of the worlds population take out Russia and China and we still have over 17% of all known cases of COVID-19, thats typical of you know nothing idiots, the numbers don't make you look very good, the answer is just attack for the sake of attacking, proportionately we just don't look very good no matter how you measure it, of course you'll just start talking about something else, not because you give a shit about the crises just for the sake of fighting about anything to distract from your sorry circumstances.
Well, two months ago, I sure FELT safer. Not that I'm now scared of catching this virus. But rather I'm now scared of my business crumbling around me because other people are scared of this virus.
Anyone with an IQ above room temperature knew this 2 months ago:
“A new study argues that city subways and buses were a “major disseminator” of the coronavirus in the Big Apple.
The paper, by MIT economics professor and physician Jeffrey Harris, points to a parallel between high ridership “and the rapid, exponential surge in infections” in the first two weeks of March — when the subways were still packed with up to 5 million riders per day — as well as between turnstile entries and virus hotspots.“
Those willing to trade essential freedoms for the illusion of temporary safety; will neither deserve nor receive either. Benjamin Franklin. Right then. Right now. Some people live, some people die, some people exist and then die. Anyone notice whether more people in blue areas died than Red?
For those who couldn’t work through the math in the original article, here’s an abridged version. Hospitalization typically takes place 14 days after infection. Death 21 days.
Much of the country has been sheltering in place for a month now. Because of that, relatively few people have been infected during the last couple weeks. By now, most of the people who are going to die are already in the hospital. The rate of hospital admissions are dropping. The number of people being infected on a daily basis is likely a fraction of new infections taking place 3 weeks ago.
The risk you’ll be infected during your next grocery run is almost zero if you live outside a hot zone.
We really are on a bell curve. The graph of new infections would show us at the tail end. Pretty much done ( until the next wave). A graph of hospitalizations would be half way down the backside of the curve. A graph of deaths would show us over the hump but still pretty high.
^ that seems like an over-estimation - as far as I can tell the # of new-cases is mostly flat vs "relatively few people have been infected during the last couple weeks" - if one looks at the bar-graph of new-cases halfway down the page below for the U.S. it shows the # of new cases is not that far from the peak:
I think there are hundreds or thousands of new infections but not tens of thousands, as before. I’m talking about what is happening now rather when we become aware of the infection. Remember, the new cases we are recording aren’t noticed until after symptoms show up, a week or two after infection. All the stats we have are lagging indicators. The deaths make us think we are at a peak but, in terms of infections, we are 2 to 3 weeks ahead of that spot on the curve.
I "assume" the curve will bend at some point, but I'll have to see it to believe it and IDK how close or far that is - once I see a consistent downward slope in new-cases , I'll feel better, but it's not there yet.
On another note - they are saying the virus actually came out of Chinese lab when an intern got infected - I would often see this as fake-news but not sure now.
When you look at the Math on this I’m starting to believe more in this turning into a Democratic hoax, especially when they go after POTUS for withholding Funding for WHO. They’d be better off funding The Who to go back on tour with Peter Townsend and Roger Daultrey!
There are 2 issues with China
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?
On the first question, it is beginning to look likely. On the second question, it is a clear and unambiguous yes. We know China stopped travel from Wuhan to other parts of China but allowed millions of tourists from China to travel around the world, carrying the virus with them.
Had China been honest, borders would have been closed to people from Wuhan and all this death and destruction avoided. What price will China pay for this ?
you got to be out of your mind to think this virus came from bat soup...it is a man made bio weapon from china....dont trust communist china or the WHO...... but the old WHO is was the best band ever
"There are 2 issues with China
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?"
I have no doubts that the answers are yes to both questions.
From things I have read it seems likely the virus came from Wuhan lab but not intentional bio attack. China was determined to show the world they had most advanced labs and could react to a virus outbreak faster than anyone. Lab had lax security and accident happened. Government then tried to cover it up to save face.
Wish the rest of world would deduct what this virus has cost from all the notes China owns
Shocking test results from a Boston homeless shelter. Has the virus spread much farther in the population than anyone imagined ? Maybe there is already herd immunity.
BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.
The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
That is unbelievable. Maybe the virus doesn’t survive as well outdoors as originally thought. That might explain why California with its homeless population has not been hit harder
"... Researchers at the University of Chicago Medical Center, which is treating patients with severe COVID-19, have seen remdesivir swiftly tamp down both fever and respiratory symptoms ... most of our patients have already been discharged ..."
The biggest problem with the remdesivir study is that no effective control groups were used. No placebos or no alternative treatments to see if these patients wouldn't have recovered otherwise. Still the fact that serious cases of Covid-19 resolved quite quickly is "promising".
The stem cell treatment seems to improve immune response in advanced cases, that is prevent the overactive immune response (cytokine storm) that ends up causing multi-organ system failure. Again, promising. Even if both of these treatments do end up being effective and safe treatments, they're nowhere near available at scale for the widespread population in the immediate or even intermediate future. Months away, even though these treatments are available right now. Also, these seem to be treatments for the advanced cases, which lowers the death count which is very useful, but hasn't shown yet to be applicable in preventing hospitalizations and serious physical long term damage altogether, which would be much more valuable in improving consumer confidence, you know, just a flu...
Food processing plants are starting to shut down or operate at reduced capacity bc of outbreaks in them - there may be food shortages and price increases
42 comments
Latest
Dr. Dogan is the co-founder and research director of Insider Monkey. He has a Ph.D. in financial economics and he has been doing quantitative stock research for more than a decade. You can reach him here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/inan-ian%E2%…
1.) Coronavirus Fatality Rate or Death Percentage: The Most Accurate Estimate
Published on February 29, 2020 at 1:24 pm by Inan Dogan, PhD in News,Tech
published @ https://www.elitetrader.com/
"Recap:
We don’t know how many people are actually infected with the new coronavirus, but we have a pretty good idea about the number of people who died because of COVID-19. That’s why our best estimate is very likely to be higher than the actual fatality rate. Since South Korea tested around 1 out of every 1000 people and no other country with widespread infections tested a higher proportion of its population, South Korea’s 0.546% fatality rate is closest to the actual fatality rate of the new coronavirus.
We wouldn’t be wrong to assume that COVID-19’s fatality rate is not more than 0.5%. This means the new coronavirus’ fatality rate is probably somewhere in between 0.2% and 0.5%. This is a wide range, but it is still narrow enough to make very educated guesses about the future. One implication is that only one out of every 200 to 500 infected people will die due to the new coronavirus. This means this new coronavirus isn’t as deadly as what most people currently believe. This also means that there are far more infected people than we identified. For example, Iran identified less than 400 infections, but the actual number of infections in Iran at this moment is anywhere from 6800 and 17,000.
Please keep in mind that our coronavirus mortality rate in humans is an estimate for the entire population. Coronavirus fatality rates for different age groups, genders, and co-morbidities are different and will be shared in other articles."
2.) Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
Published on March 20, 2020 at 2:50 pm by INAN DOGAN, PHD in Economy,ETF Trading,Market Movers,News @ Insider Monkey.
"Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000. We estimate that 80 thousand of the 2 million infected Americans will be hospitalized over the next 2 weeks. That’s why we are short-term bullish on hospital stocks."
The problem is [that economists and practitioners] never abandon the bell curve.
They are like medieval astronomers who believe the sun revolves around the earth and are furiously tweaking their geo-centric math in the face of contrary evidence.
They will never get this right because their assumptions are rong.
https://tuscl.net/discussion.php?id=7170…
New Jersey as a whole might be around 50x safer than other typical cities or states elsewhere. New Orleans and Detroit about 40x safer. Chicago about 20x safer. The black communities in those urban areas around 80x+ safer. They've already paid the price and still paying the price of not socially/physically distancing. For now anyway. The immunity from coronaviruses (all seven of them that have moved from animals to humans) in general only seems to last a year or so at most...
And the ocean front property for sale as everyone knows is in Las Vegas after the big Cali earthquake Arizona is not in play at all
Um, 25, I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the accuracy of the numbers is critical in mathematics.
That 25% you were ascribing the the U.S. does indeed assume that the worldwide case numbers are accurate.
***For 25's Math 101 education***
A percentage of a total is calculated by dividing the numerator, which is the sample (in this case, # of U.S. cases) by the denominator, which is the total population (in this case, # of worldwide cases). So if the denominator of worldwide cases is dramatically under-reported, then the resulting % attributable to the U.S, will look higher than it actually is. This is simple mathematics, lol.
Good thing for you that swimming around in your in-ground pool and driving around in your very expensive SUV, while you wish many more months of lockdowns upon your suffering hourly workers, doesn't require higher math skills. 😉
Let's get back to work !
“A new study argues that city subways and buses were a “major disseminator” of the coronavirus in the Big Apple.
The paper, by MIT economics professor and physician Jeffrey Harris, points to a parallel between high ridership “and the rapid, exponential surge in infections” in the first two weeks of March — when the subways were still packed with up to 5 million riders per day — as well as between turnstile entries and virus hotspots.“
Much of the country has been sheltering in place for a month now. Because of that, relatively few people have been infected during the last couple weeks. By now, most of the people who are going to die are already in the hospital. The rate of hospital admissions are dropping. The number of people being infected on a daily basis is likely a fraction of new infections taking place 3 weeks ago.
The risk you’ll be infected during your next grocery run is almost zero if you live outside a hot zone.
We really are on a bell curve. The graph of new infections would show us at the tail end. Pretty much done ( until the next wave). A graph of hospitalizations would be half way down the backside of the curve. A graph of deaths would show us over the hump but still pretty high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
On another note - they are saying the virus actually came out of Chinese lab when an intern got infected - I would often see this as fake-news but not sure now.
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?
On the first question, it is beginning to look likely. On the second question, it is a clear and unambiguous yes. We know China stopped travel from Wuhan to other parts of China but allowed millions of tourists from China to travel around the world, carrying the virus with them.
Had China been honest, borders would have been closed to people from Wuhan and all this death and destruction avoided. What price will China pay for this ?
1. Did the virus come out of the lab ?
2. Did the Chinese government cover up the infection for weeks, causing it to spread around the world ?"
I have no doubts that the answers are yes to both questions.
Wish the rest of world would deduct what this virus has cost from all the notes China owns
BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.
The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gi…
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/health-…
The stem cell treatment seems to improve immune response in advanced cases, that is prevent the overactive immune response (cytokine storm) that ends up causing multi-organ system failure. Again, promising. Even if both of these treatments do end up being effective and safe treatments, they're nowhere near available at scale for the widespread population in the immediate or even intermediate future. Months away, even though these treatments are available right now. Also, these seem to be treatments for the advanced cases, which lowers the death count which is very useful, but hasn't shown yet to be applicable in preventing hospitalizations and serious physical long term damage altogether, which would be much more valuable in improving consumer confidence, you know, just a flu...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-cl…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who-issu…
https://youtu.be/DhRwlLqaYVY
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/coronavi…