Will the Euro break up or fall apart if Lepen wins?
Could cause stock market to drop 1000 Dow points. Possible great buying opportunity. It might suck for Europe though. Projections are for Lepen and another to be in a runoff election around May 2nd or so after this weekends vote. I'm thinking Lepen don't win the whole thing. Now if Obama would throw his support for the other candidate, Lepen might win.
Only morbid curiosity. The French (as a nation) have never truly been friends of this nation. The Loius' (14 and 16) were interested in helping colonists in North America, just to frustrate the English. The "Reveloution" was exclusively internally focused. Napoleon and the subsequent Empires wanted trade, but were otherwise hostile to the new USA. Troops from WW1 reported that Parisians were either indifferent or hostile to Doughboys and only prostitutes showed any interest. WW2 US troops were joyfully welcomed as they liberated French towns, but just days later were shunned by most French. After WW2, the new French government (led by DeGaulle - who we supplied and even set up to be first to "liberate" Paris) did everything possible to frustrate US interests. To this day, the people of Paris (the only super giant metro area of France) are generally unfriendly to American tourists (unless it is their job to be friendly).
Individual French people have often been friends of America and Americans. From Lafayette to Frédéric Auguste Bartholdi and Gustave Eiffel (designer and builder of La Liberté éclairant le monde - the Statue of Liberty) several French individuals have contributed to US history and culture. But as a nation, and a people as a whole the French are not our friends.
One exception among modern French leaders may be Marine Le Pen, a "not liberal, not socialist" candidate in the current French elections for President. Liberals, progressives, and socialists - worldwide - are aghast at her popularity and even the possibility that she will be in the runoff elections has the French Socialist Party pulling out every dirty trick they ever knew to destroy her. One of the reasons they hate her is she publicly supports better relations with the US and has said she likes what Trump says (the two have never met).
Even though Le Pen campaigns on French exit from the EU, a "Frexit" is still unlikely - BUT her influence (if elected) might convince the EU to tighten borders and stop importing Muslim terror. "MIGHT" Even a good showing in the elections might make a little difference - but I doubt that the EU is recoverable. Western Europe is important to the USA, and to the stability of the world, but they seem to be attempting to commit suicide - led by the French. The UK, and maybe even Germany, could slow the decline but I don't know. Bottom line, I am morbidly curious, but I don't hold out hope for France..
Le Pen is very socialist even though she doesn't call herself one. Also very nationalist even though she doesn't call herself that either. So let's see. Nationalist and Socialist. Hmmm... Yeah. But also taking on some liberal positions for a kinder, gentler image after her third marriage.
I'm very concerned about the election. From the polls it looks like it could be any two of the four in the second round: so six different outcomes all about equally likely. "Officially" she only has a good chance in one of those: when she is up against a communist.
FrExit would pretty much seal the end of the EU which have big market ramifications over time. It would be another shot in the arm for populism. Might even end up in a 1848 type scenario. Social consequences are scary besides the economic ones.
Officially just a 1 in 6 chance right now, but I suspect she has a better 2nd round shot then the polls indicate. Especially if she scores much better than expected in the first. That will mean, that like with BrExit and Trump supporters, her supporters don't talk to pollsters or mislead them when they do.
No matter what the outcome I think the markets rip next week. To the upside or downside is the question though.
LePen was sailing in the polls until a debate a few weeks back when she denied France's role in sending Jews to Auschwitz. The new National Front is not supposed to say things like that.
Ladbrokes has some very different odds than mine. I'm not sure how they are getting that some 2nd round match ups are much more likely than others given everyone is within the margin of error of each other in the polls. Maybe those Melenchon communist supporters are all the talk it up but say in bed all day and don't vote types.
They have a LePen win at 11:4. Macron is a little better than 50/50 at 8:11.
Apparently, she's got the endorsement from Trump too.
Anything to hurt the EU is ok with me. I am weary of them trying to jam their socialist misery down our throats. I also hope the French wake up and begin to demand the muslim scum that have infested their country either follow their laws or get the fuck out. We need to do the same. You come to our country to escape the butches and slaughter of your family in your former residence by your chosen religious leaders and you are so sick in the head you want to bring the slaughter and butchery to our country. Muslims are no better than rabid dogs they bite the hands that try to help them. The majority of the refuges (70% single male) are lazy cowardly animals who are looking for an easy place to rape and pillage in the west. They want use to pay them welfare to reduce our countries to the 4th world level they claim to have fled. If they were not cowardly animals they would stand up like men and resist ISIS, the Mullahs and crazies in charge in their own countries and beg charity for someone to fight their battles for them. I travel all over and interact with people from all over the world and virtually to a person the say muslim men do not work! They claim it is beneath their dignity to be a wage earner and when their are job available they send women to apply. Europe and north america need to ship all the trash the mideast has dumped in our yard back and tell them to live in their own country. We need to become energy independent and tell that part of the world to fuck off and die.
^You sound like some rabid KKK member going on about "jews runnin' the world".
Huh? What do his opinions on muslims and, what he says, are their lack of work ethic have to do with his opinions (if any) on Jews? You're making a real (illogical) stretch there Jestie. But I guess illogical leaps are the norm for you, so not unexpected.
Dugly's lack of reading comprehension strikes again.
With all due respect, jester214, your response to Tiredtraveler's comment on the desirability of deporting Muslims who refuse to abide by our laws (Europe's or America's) is quite the non sequitur. What in the world does his opinion about Muslims, which at least was relevant to the original question about the presidential election in France this weekend, have to do with "some rabid KKK member going on about 'jews runnin' the world'"? On the one hand we have Muslim migrants and "refugees", especially in Europe, who disproportionately refuse to assimilate to the norms of France (or Belgium or Germany or Denmark or Britain or wherever) and isolate themselves in Muslim-majority slums, never really becoming contributing members of their adopted country. On the other hand we have the Jews, who have striven mightily to assimilate in European and American society and have risen to high levels of achievement (unlike Muslim immigrants!) in essentially every field other than criminality and perhaps professional sports. There is really no comparison between the positions of Muslims and Jews in Western countries. Furthermore, criticism of Muslims like Tiredtraveler's has essentially nothing to do with traditional anti-Semitism (i.e., anti-Judaism), which was historically more of a rightwing phenomenon but is nowadays much more characteristic of the Left.
I'm very interested in the results, but I'm typically more interested in what happens around the globe than most people in this country, in my experience.
Is "you sound like" confusing? He's ranting and raving in a similar fashion to some KKK idiot making ridiculous statements about Jewish people.
Not on a board that is supposed to be about strippers, i dont.
@jestie214: It's not at all confusing. You specifically picked "The KKK" an organization renowned for violence for violence, and "The Jews" a people who suffered great losses due to similar organization. Pretty clear why you choose those to thing. You did compare it to some random person calling mexican lazy.
So, no you did not confuse. Completely clear. Because of that, I think you owe TT and the board and apology for your wild accusations. I won't hold my breath on that, however, because I know you are a guy who will never admit he is wrong even when it is as clear as night and day that you were wrong.
I like fries, toast and kissing. Elections not so much.
Looks like MrDeuce wasn't confused by jestie's passive-aggressive "subtle implications" either.
Gonna apologize, Jestie?
I'm with Shadowcat,
Who said anything about Mexicans Dugly? Making some pretty illogical leaps there. Seriously this is pretty pathetic even for you, you're laughable.
TiredTraveler referred to Muslims as "scum", "lazy cowardly animals who are looking for an easy place to rape and pillage" and also compared them to "rabid dogs". Those are the rantings of an angry bigot. Try and desperately twist my words into something else, but as usual you don't have a leg to stand on.
Nope. Don't like the French. They smell and don't shave.
Left out a word, obviously I meant "did not" choose that comparison. You choose Jews and the KKK instead. As usual all you can do is try and pounce on typos or accidental word omissions ignoring the obvious point I was trying to make.
As always when you call Dugly on his bullshit it's a "typo" or a "mistake" or "just kidding".
You could substitute most ethnic groups and my point would have been the same. I picked Jewish because I was reminded of a scene from Imperium, which I recently watched.
I don't know, jestie. You talk about other people lacking "reading comprehension" but apparently if one word is accidentally omitted, you can't compensate. Your brain is thrown for a complete loop. Obviously I was saying you choose one comparison over another for a reason. Passive aggressive implications about TT, whom you owe an apology too. Gonna make that apology or not?
Jestie's only three moves: 1) pounce on a typo (even when typo is the simpler explanation versus his elaborate alternatives) 2) treat an obviously joking statement as serious and 3) project his constant lying and hypocrisy onto others.
Dugly: If I say he needs to apologize to the site maybe people will think he did something wrong and turn on him!
Really dipshit? It didn't work with vince, it's not going to work here. You've been trolling this site for near on a decade. Apologize for almost 10 years of your bullshit and then maybe someone will do something other than laugh or scroll on when you suggest it.
Oh, course you did something wrong jestie: passive aggressively implied that TT supported violent organizations like the KKK.
But it seems like Internet Touch Guys like you and vincemichaels are able to man up to their mistakes. Hardly surprising.
Ooops... Left out a word there. "not able to man" up. Better correct that so jestie's pea-brain does not get thrown for a loop! (And great example of his hypocrisy. He'll complain how I often omit words when in my writing, but then when accidental word omission is the most obvious explanation, but he wants to pin something else on, on no way I could have accidentally omitted a word!)
Another classic Dugly tactic, repeat the same bullshit over and over again and maybe it will stick.
Keep trying it for a few more posts, make sure you get the last word, and then say you "slam dunked that faggot".
Not your best work Dugly.
You're the self confessed bullshiter out of the two of jesite. Just keep on projecting, jestie. Keep on projecting.
My main interest is how the results will affect US stocks and how it might affect or even lead to the end of the EU as we know it. Not sure if it will have much impact or not. I think our markets are looking for an excuse to rip higher or lower. They've been stuck in a range for a while. I actually have in laws in France. I heard they brought wine to the wedding. Can't beat that but I didn't attend. Too many other obligations at the time. I have nothing against the French and wish them well. It's all these terrorists I have something against. The west is in a war with them whether our side fights back or not. Thank God Hillary didn't succeed in getting open borders here allowing drug and crime cartels free travel into the country. However I'm not really sure how secure our borders really are if teenagers can just walk across the border with kids. I think letting everyone in is naive and dangerous. Hillary would have had armed guards while appointing a Supreme Court justice to do away with our rights. Could still happen if future democrat presidents appoint enough left wing justices.
Anyway I'm only interested in how the results affect things here.
Next week will certainly be action packed for the markets: French elections result are definitely what the market have been waiting on. On Wednesday Trump supposedly delivers his tax plan, but apparently it will only have been seen by a few people so who knows if it's something he'll be able to actually get enacted or just more talk out of him. On Tuesday we see if N Korea goes ahead with a nuclear test. On Friday there is a deadline for government funding: and Trump says it must include his border wall. (Wait? I thought Mexico was paying for it...)
Runoff. There's a lot on the line....
Go France -- please elect the current favorite Macron and don't fuck up the election the way we did.
I'm going to state my answer again, Just to be clear. Nope!
I'd like to see Le Pen win, and the French leave the EU. That's more from my anti-globalism worldview than any concern for the welfare of French society.
I'm more concerned with nuclear war breaking out with North Korea and the US. Trump might think a nuclear war is preferable than allowing NK to launch an EMP attack against the US with their 70 subs killing 90% of Americans due to almost no preparation for an EMP attack. Between May 13th up to October 13th. An EMP attack would kill strip clubs and everything. Maybe we can take out all their subs just in case they have nuclear or EMP ability on the sub launched missiles. It's kind of scary to think 2 EMP missiles on the east and west coasts of the US would kill 90% of our population due to loos of power for a year or longer. Those numbers are generated by US sources. We are so prepared. Worrying about strip clubs, next weekend , stocks, etc. Are you ok with at least 9 out of 10 of your brothers, sisters, relatives, and friends not making it? Our government is.
I guess if our government wants to do something about this, they might strike first or prod NK to supposedly think we are going to strike first, then blame NK for striking first. I heard NK would strike first if they think we are going to strike. This might explain all the war of words heating up. Making NK think we are going to strike so if they do, it will be their fault as far as world condemnation goes. Ok I will stop rambling for a while and not post anymore for a while.
Le Pen almost certainly won't win the run-off election. All of the eliminated candidates have endorsed Macron (centrist; pro EU), so Le Pen's 21% of the vote will likely increase a bit but not much.
It is noteworthy that she got this far, while the traditionally mainstream French parties are sidelined.
Well I'm glad I was wrong on Europe this year. But I still think it inevitably disintegrates.
So let's see France is okay. So Europe probably will be too. Trump backed off on the wall. Trump said he is aiming at 15% corporate tax and doesn't care about the deceit (which I thought was what he was going to do). I guess all that leaves is N Korea.
Assume that was supposed to be "deficit" and not "deceit." Funny thing, the sentence makes perfect sense either way :)
Brexit and Trump were huge surprises, but apparently Macron has this one absolutely locked down, which is a good thing. Macron's leading in the polls by 25 points. Here's Nate Silver's tweet:
"Anyone who says "Le Pen can win because Trump!" is basically innumerate. Their situations are not at all comparable."
The libs had a meltdown when Trump won when supposedly it was gonna be a Hillary landslide.
I would like to see Le Pen win if nothing more to see the liberal fallout, no doubt there would have to be created safe spaces the size of cities
Have I told you lately, no?
ROFL! Speaking of that yuge cut in corporate tax rates, looks like it won't work due to quirks in the budget reconciliation process:
I do not want to see Le Pen win. I'll glad take the hit for being wrong for thinking this year could be an 1848 over a Le Pen win.
Don't be absurd Dougster. Remember that the revolutions of 1848 were ultimately unsuccessful.
As an aspiring rick I plan to organize all of the suit-wearing invertebrates into an army of death that will wipe the scourge of hairless apes from the face of the world.
Then the council of ricks will accept my membership.
Scuttle! Scuttle! Scuttle!
I don't think you have anything to worry about Dougster as not many people think Le Pen will win either, even if she has stepped down from being the leader of the National Front to try and make her more electable.
Put your dukes up rickthecoconutcrab !!, er, your claws.
Nope!