Offtopic Is Greece going to default on Tuesday?

30 comments

• Dougster

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  9 years ago

  Agree, they should do the inevitable (default) now and get it over with. Very brave move on their part.
• warhawks

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  9 years ago

  
  Make tons of money on Tuesday.
  
  Short everything.
  
  You're welcome. ;)
• rickdugan

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  9 years ago

  A default is highly likely. This is going to crash their banking system and make the country un-creditworthy for years to come, but I guess that the Greek government felt that this was better that trying to wean the Greek people off of the government tit. What a sad state of affairs this is for the Greek people and their culture.
• motorhead

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  9 years ago

  If they default, who's gonna take it up the ass?
• farmerart

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  9 years ago

  This could degenerate into a serious world wide catastrophe. Without continuing subsidies from Germany, Greece must abandon the euro if not leave the European Community completely. If that does happen other weak European economies could fall like so many dominoes. Were that to be one or more of the big economies (France, Italy, Spain) then the euro would be toast, throwing the entire world into forex chaos.
  
  This is just bad news all round.
• farmerart

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  9 years ago

  Just checked a couple of screens. Greek 10 year bonds are now trading at a price yielding 14.5%. Isn't that a sweet deal? Lend money to the Greek government for 10 years......get 14.5% interest every year.
  
  I'll pass.
• rockstar666

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  9 years ago

  farmerart: My understanding is most of the Greek debt has been "handled" by the EU already, as member banks will not collapse if Greece defaults because they have their assets covered. The biggest losers will be Greeks themselves. Yes, the markets are taking a hit but I would consider that a buy opportunity. Greece abandoning the Euro would be a good thing IMO; but only time will tell.
• farmerart

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  9 years ago

  @rockstar666,
  
  To me Greek debt is not the issue. In the big scheme of things the total Greek debt is so puny as not really to register on international debt markets. The key issue is confidence in the euro currency. If confidence in the euro is ultimately lost in this entire charade then the global economic system faces severe turmoil as currencies are revalued throughout the world.
  
  Really nasty things can follow from that.
• rockstar666

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  9 years ago

  I agree that confidence is the most important part of any fiat currency. I for one have every confidence in the Euro in the big picture. It trades higher and lower reflecting short term confidence, but like the US $ it's here to stay.
• londonguy

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  9 years ago

  They should never have been allowed to join the Euro in the first place. It's all about politics and not economics.
  
  
• sharkhunter

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  9 years ago

  I'm wondering what impact Puerto Rico will have on July 15th if they default on their debt.
  They announced they couldn't pay.
  Someone commented maybe about Greece and Puerto Rico that socialism works until they run out of everyone else's money.
  Someone suggested checking bond funds to make sure it doesn't include any puerto Rico debt.
• Dougster

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  9 years ago

  Word is that Friday's IMF report (which the EU didn't want published) gave a boost to the Oxi side in Greece. I think Europe wants them out in any case.
• farmerart

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  9 years ago

  The Rubicon has been crossed.
  
  Greek banks are almost out of cash. It no longer matters which way the referendum goes today. Politicians in Greece and greater Europe cannot act quickly enough to deal with the imminent collapse of the Greek banking system.
• Dougster

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  9 years ago

  Looks like "no" has it. Gutsy move to swallow the medicine now. Best of luck to them. (Let's all have some Baklava tonight to wish them the best on their chosen path.)
• JohnSmith69

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  9 years ago

  Interesting discussion but I'm gonna keep worrying instead about whether or not I can line up a threesome this week with the adorably cute young dancer that the DS and I just met. Somebody let me know what happens with the collapse of the world economy this week.
• JohnSmith69

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  9 years ago

  But if the world economy does collapse I'm gonna quit paying alimony.
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  80% of Greek debt is owned by European governments. This is Greece's way of saying "we're fucked" so why not try to fuck others, too.
  
  The ECB will work out payments whether Greece stays in the euro or go on there own currency. Regardless it's just a shell game and Greece has more to lose by isolating themselves from the rest or the western world. Their main economy, tourism, relies too much on keeping a resemblance of good fiscal relations and they will be forced to concede to further austerity. A revaluation of currency is one possible solution, but since so much debt is owned by government there will be a treaty or rearrangement by the ECB this week.
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  Will the ECB agree on terms this weekend? Who should give a fuck if your American?
• georgmicrodong

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  9 years ago

  If anyone is familiar with a science fiction author named Eric Flint, a self described socialist sometimes described as somewhat to the left of Trotsky, he has a piece in his blog praising the Greeks for sticking it to the European bankers. He's a smart guy, and makes valid points, even if do disagree with most of his opinions. :)
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  The market has already priced in the default. Contagion is possible, but my bet is the Dow will be closer to 19,000 by end of the year than18,000.
• Dougster

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  9 years ago

  Wow!
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  I should be managing all TUSCL member's money. The fee would be one OTC session with their ATF!
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  Let me know and I will send the ADV form for you to sign off, and payment is due within 30 days. The ultimate money manager!
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  Ha ha! Dow 19k will probably be in the spring of 2016, just a few months after my prediction of ending 2015 at 19k. Still the best money manager ever!
• rockstar666

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  9 years ago

  Much as I appreciate socialism in general for Western countries, the stark reality is that it's very expensive, and if your economy is based on olives and crumbling buildings, you just can't afford it. Only countries with a solid private business sector can afford massive government spending for the public good, like the US. Greece is not one of them. But they won't default even if maybe they should.
• Dougster

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  9 years ago

  ^^^ great points!
• TheeOSU

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  9 years ago

  Not really. When the cost and taxes of socialist programs destroy private businesses even the US won't be able to handle the load. Where in the world has long term socialism worked? Nowhere.
• sharkhunter

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  9 years ago

  FYI, the US stock market dropped a lot more than 1% since I first started this thread.
  Markets go up and down. Unless you only follow a rigged market that operates like a ponzi scheme you can expect ups and downs greater than 1%. I barely even thought about Greece since June except when I saw 300 on tv again.
• sharkhunter

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  9 years ago

  As far as socialism goes, it's all about sharing a smaller and smaller pie. Eventually the socialist leaders run out of other people's money to spend.
• Mate27

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  9 years ago

  Socialism is not what made this country great, and the history says our constitution has provided the basics for that greatness. Socialism is the opposite of what our constitution entails, and when the liberals state it is an outdated document, they risk USA becoming like a Greece.
  
  I see the march up to Dow 18k is happening. I hope it Falls back to 17k or lower. I got a bunch of money to invest over the next several months.