tuscl

OT: These 20-somethings invest like 'Depression babies'

This article gives some pretty good insight into the current market psychology, but I believe it applies well beyond 20 somethings:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102476674#.

People got burned in the past, or saw others get burned, so now are being too cautious. And what did Buffet say to do when others were fearful? The market is just great in how it always gets people to be too bold when they should be cautious, and too cautious when they should be bold. That's one thing that will never change, and one you can take to the bank. (As an exercise to the reader: Think of how it applies to current spook over rate hikes.)

What's the appropriate theme music here? "Won't get fooled again"?

64 comments

  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    Anybody on TUSCL investing like a "depression baby"? Anyone who is not a 20 something?
  • deogol
    10 years ago
    Eh, I gave up on the markets for getting rich. I still keep an IRA as a plan B, but I believe more on having multiple income streams these days. I prefer to store money I have today than hope for money in the future.
  • skibum609
    10 years ago
    What type of person is so simplistic that they would actually accept as realistic a "news" article on cnbc that cites studies from companies involved in making money off investors as proof of anything other than the article was a plant to get stupid people to invest in the dying stages of the 4th biggest bull market in history? Anyone buying into the market now is an accident waiting to happen.
  • Josh43
    10 years ago
    I agree with Ski to the extent that the market is simply overvalued right now; the caution that's gripping investors really doesn't have much to do with feeling "shell-shocked" over recent bubble-burst periods. Still, what kind of advice would you give to a 20-something right now -- someone who's going to be in the market for another 40 years? I would recommend investing the same fixed amount at fixed intervals since these elevated levels could persist for years.

    Good job with your conspiracy theory, Ski.
  • JamesSD
    10 years ago
    I max my employer 401k match and put it in an index fund with the lowest upkeep fee.

    I used to invest in individual stocks with my fun money, which was mostly money won through online poker. Overall I did okay, but I sunk that cash into my house, and the online poker bubble crashed years ago.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    This CNBC article and the stuff these Financial Advisors and Dougster are putting out is pure Mind Fucking. They are trying to make people believe that they have to jump into the speculative economy or they are missing out on something, or just hurting themselves, or something like that.

    Jeremy Rifkin writes about this in the European Dream.

    http://www.amazon.com/European-Dream-Eur…

    What killed the American Dream is the fatalism of speculation. People are saying that you have to accept this gambling mentality or you lose. What a stupid idea and how stupid that we have let public policy go in a direction which supports this.

    Actually, financial planners can be sanctioned or delicensed if they go too far in saying that they know it is going to be a certain way or that you have to do this or that. I got California Corporations Commission to investigate and delicense some people whom my ex-wife was employed by. The doctrine they put out is intoxicating, but when they are claiming that they know this or that to be true, then it is fraud. The investigator spent three weeks in their office photocopying a truckload of their client files, and then they demanded that the firm expel them.

    I for one am happy with the work that I do and to live with the money I get paid. I am proud of the actual content of my work. So I don't need to play gambling games. I am proud of the work itself and of my own on going self-education.

    People like Dougster want to take that away. What they are putting out is poison. It is not dissimilar to what Pentecostals put out, that this life is not worth living unless you can persuade the Sky Daddy to make it rain on you.

    This idea that people are chicken to take risks is nonsense. Everyday life is a risk. Trying to do something of actual value is always a risk. Just playing games with money is less risky than living with purpose.

    If 20 somethings are less receptive to Dougster's poison, then that is a sign of returning health in our society.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    This article is spot on from the Dougster. Many debates run through people's mind as to whether the market is overvalued or fairly valued, and the truth is that markets are efficient. It has to be otherwise why would billions of people and thousands of pension funds invest in them? We live in an integrated global society dependent on commerce. You invest in commerce when you invest in the markets, and what does the cost of goods do over time? It goes up!

    We were in an oversold position due to panic back in 2008-2009, and the rise from those low levels only makes it appear the market is at a top. # 1 mistake in investing is trying to guess where the market is going. If your time horizon is shorter than 5 years keep it out of the market at any time period in history. If time horizon is longer than 5 years, put it in the market, no matter what u think is going to happen.

    The average investor only averages 4% annually because of their emotions, but the market averages 11% annually on a historic basis. This is proof that you should never guess which direction the market is going, but just know your time horizon and you won't lose. This has been a fool proof system 100% of the time in history.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Only 4% because of their emotions? Well that sounds like an argument to stay out of such markets, otherwise one gets into trouble.

    People should be able to be proud of the work that they do, not of the games they play with money.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    The moral of the story is you get 11% numb skull if you participate. U get only 4% when u jump in and out, so the argument is if you go in make sure you stay in. Comprende?
  • JamesSD
    10 years ago
    Lol. Efficient market hypothesis.

    Markets are only efficient in the very long run.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    skibum: " Anyone buying into the market now is an accident waiting to happen."

    Yep they've been saying that every day since March 2009, during which time the market has more than tripled. I'm sure though any day now "it's all over". :-)
  • farmerart
    10 years ago
    @Meat72

    '.......the truth is that markets are efficient.'

    I really question that statement. In my 40+ years of stock market investing my entire approach has been to find inefficiencies in market pricing of individual stocks. Hysteria and euphoria are usually good indicators that pricing inefficiencies in the stock market can be found.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    The EMH is fascinating. I agree with art that it is false. The interesting thing, however, is that nearly everyone who believes this false statement and does modern portfolio allocation will do better than those who try and find the ineffecencies.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    It's interesting to think of all the times in our personal lives and throughout history where false belief have been more helpful than true ones. Can also help understand why humans have so many of the cognitive biases that they do.
  • JamesSD
    10 years ago
    "The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent."
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    ^^^ that would depend on whether you're leveraged or not
  • sharkhunter
    10 years ago
    Of course Dougster might be invested in long positions and may want others to buy up the market. I am starting to wonder if or when we might be in store for a large correction. Most people remember 2008 with bad memories of the stock market. The market can go up or down. I suspect by summer or a little bit afterwards, the US market will be heading south. For one thing earnings are still very optimistic and if the dollar is higher later on than it is now, that will likely cause earnings to go down.

    One big mystery is how the fed perceives the rising dollar. I see it as tightening on US manufacturers. If the Fed delays interest rate increases, the dollar might temporarily reverse, oil and Us stocks may surge. in the shirt term.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    @shark: I am long stocks and off to a very good start for 2015. I'm cool with the market going either up or down at this point. If it goes up - great made more money. If it goes down - great can buy some favs at a lower prices (and be amused by the media hype that is sure to accompany it). All good either way!
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    Looking for inefficiencies can be like looking for a diamond in the ruff. They're out there but you have to do a ton of homework. So far the average working stiff, they don't have the energy or acumen to sort through efficiencies so that option isn't available. I'd rather spend my free time not working and spend it playing and keeping my health in check. Your health is your first wealth, therefore since over a long period of time, which is what I'm planning for, markets are efficient. Any dips is where we capitalize and only sticking to a consistent plan of putting money away is the easiest way to build wealth, not trying to figure out the next hot tip in the investment world.

    The thing about finance and investing is that there is always the other side of the coin. You can always debate any point made, which is why it's such an exercise in futility. "See a fork in the road and take it!" Yogi Bera's statement can be true in finance too, where as 90% of it is between the ears, and staying disciplined is the only way to win over time.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    @farmerart wrote: "Hysteria and euphoria are usually good indicators that pricing inefficiencies in the stock market can be found."

    Yes!

    For myself though, I see no reason to pay any attention to any of this, including the Depression Babies article.

    I invest my money where it will do the most good and have the most upside potential, and where I will have the most control over how it is used, in myself. I invest in myself, and now in some activities entered into with some associates. Our activities are small in scale now, but we have some big plans.

    We would like to get rich. But that is not the over arching criterion. Even if we don't make much money, we will still have the satisfaction that we used our skills in an ethical manner, and hopefully that we made some good things happen.

    SJG
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    So this article about Depression Babies is just mind fucking. It is trying to put out this idea that only people who put money into the speculative economy are living life to the fullest, and that the rest of us are chicken and are actually hurting ourselves.

    Well that is pure nonsense. I am not a Depression Baby, and I'm not a 20 something either. But I have no interest in any speculative economy, except of course for my own. Life has risks, I accept that and I don't try to hide behind the collective security of some speculator doctrine which takes advantage of other people.

    I believe that everyone is entitled to economic security, at all stages of life, but especially in their later years. And I am politically opposed to anyone who wants to take this away or undermine it.

    So in my later years, I might be rich, or I might not be. I might enjoy a public safety net, the way it should be, or I might not. It could even come down to petrol bombs and machine gun fire in the streets. But no matter, I am not afraid, and I'll be ready. I am doing work that is worthwhile and that I am proud of. And at this point I have associates whom I am working with and we invest our time, our energies, and our money together, in ourselves.

    We are also politically active. We are opposed to the ideology of Libertarianism. It does not promote individuality, it promotes conformity. It does not promote individual fortunes, it promotes the collective interest of an economic class. We are opposed to this interest, and we will remain so, rich or poor.

    The best years for the middle class in recent times ran from FDR thru Nixon, Ford, and Carter. This modern middle class was created by federal taxation and spending. It was not that everyone worked directly or indirectly for the gov't, it was simply that gov't spending propped up the middle tier of wages, and it also gave the unions their strength.

    This has been seriously undermined and so today you see America rapidly sliding into a situation of super rich versus people who live with extreme economic insecurity on a daily basis and who don't even feel that it is safe to organize to advance their interests.

    Isn't that sad, the Libertarians feel safe to advocate for their collective interest. Speculators even get taxed at a lower rate than people who do real work. But working people today don't feel that they have the safety needed to organize and advance their interests. They feel that they could lose their jobs, or they feel that the would be exposed to Evangelicals, or that they would be cast as social parasites. So the stay silent and suffer.

    Well I and my group are standing up to this. Besides being active in our commercial projects, we are also active politically. Opposing the bogus doctrine of Libertarianism, we support Communitarianism, the idea that there are legitimate collective interests, like the right to a meaningful career, not just a job, and the right to an economic safety net.

    The money which powers all these bubbles @Dougster endoses is simply the money which used to be collected in progressive taxation. What is being done with it now is not better. In fact it is harmful. So at least until we can find some post capitalist system, we need to be collecting that money in upper income and investment income taxes. This will rupture all of these bubbles right away, including the real estate bubble.

    Beyond that we need to look at the sorts of things which delegitimate some people and cast them into an underclass. In my opinion much of it comes down to child abuse.

    Once abused and denied a path to an adult social position, one is likely to end up on alcohol and drugs, and then subject to Evangelicals and to other programs which run on similar ideas and which are intended to further delegitimate and control. We need to expose these things and give people the delayed social justice which they are entitled to.

    So when I am old I might be rich and I might be poor, and I might enjoy a public safety net, the way it should be, and I might not. But either way I will enjoy that fact that I lived well and did good, and that I still have a movement of like minded comrades and that we do stand up for each other, and we also take care of our women.

    So I will not be like @Meat72, worrying about whether or not I got the full 11% reserved for those who have balls, or just the 4% for those who don't, because I will be able to show that I don't need to worry about such things because I really do have balls and because I lived life to the fullest and I invested my time energy and money into what I and comrades could do, economically and politically.

    So I'll be happy to meet with any of you anti-tax, Libertarians, Right Wingers, Speculators, in my later years and to swap stories with you. I will have lived life to the fullest, and of course I won't ever want to retire. Retirement is not the purpose of the work that I do.

    See you then!

    SJG

    The True History of the Libertarian Party
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaIb8tl6…

    Hartmann Live
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJqW858g…

    Doyle Bramhall II
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8pc9sbq…
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I won't ever want to retire either. Finance is what I do and love. There happens to be good money in it? Bonus!!!
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    There is good money in it for people who are smarmy. That means for people who are good at manipulating other people. That is all it is.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    Jaded are we?
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    @SJG: nope I work with plenty of people who don't have a manipulative bone in their body.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    I'm not jaded, I'm just telling it like it is.

    Dougster, I'm sure you work with clients that are not manipulative. I wasn't referring to the clients.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    @SJG: Curious were you ever religious at any point in your life?
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    That is a good question. At various times I have spent enough time with religion to understand it. But I have never gone along with the group think dimensions of it.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    Interesting. Cool!
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    SJG, You have to be jaded when your comments are so forthcoming about manipulation and how the markets are rigged. I just wonder how you got to be so anti-capitalist? Most people make their money when times are tough. Shouldn't we be willing to take on another downturn? That would be ideal opportunity to put $$ at work. And please don't say "who has $$ with the high cost of living" when we all know paying for hookers is a discretionary want and not a need. If people have time and $$ to spend paying girls for pleasure, they should have it for other capitalistic ventures, too.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    Yeah, and while we are at it why are you so anti-Christian as well, SJG? I mean I consider myself to be the ultimate materialist but the fact that religious are wrong I just take as too obvious to bother even debating the point. I also thibk history is so obviously against them that you just do nothing and they vanish on their own,
  • sharkhunter
    10 years ago
    There are people routinely beating market averages by using technical analysis. Then there are others doing well using allocation and occasional rebalancing. That's all market timing in my opinion. Something the big fund people try to discourage . Well not the allocation but moving funds around frequently. They are likely already rich and don't want everyone moving their funds around to cut losses short. They want you to buy and hope. I think deflation is coming and it will affect stocks and commodities. Actually already seeing it in my opinion. I'm hoping we get a good bounce at a lower point. one stock I was in kept going down worse than the market averages. not a good sign to buy and hold if you understand any technical analysis. Sell, buy back just above support, sell it if support doesn't hold with a stop loss. However big funds think everyone is too stupid to manage technical trading even if orders could be entered in the evening or morning before the market even opens. When I say big funds, meaning big 401k fund managers. Unfortunately I have to quit my job to move my 401k funds to a self directed Ira. I might go job hunting at some point. At least I don't have to keep most funds in company stock anymore after Enron collapse made employees lose their life savings and congress changed those laws.
  • sharkhunter
    10 years ago
    I think there will be a major correction in stocks either starting next year or sooner. I'm wondering if it already started. hOwever whenever the dollar gets support, things may bounce. otherwise the dollar might just go to the moon, exports crash and the US goes into recession. no one is worrying about that now.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    shark: "otherwise the dollar might just go to the moon"

    But all the political and economic and business savvy guys on TUSCL said that ObamaCare is going to destroy the US economy. Along with Obama's other policies. Why is the USD so foolishly rallying into that?
  • sharkhunter
    10 years ago
    Why is the dollar rallying?, to get the Euro to fall, the dollar must rise. They trade against each other. EU QE pushes that along. I think at some point it's due for a pullback. Dollar bulls are at an extreme. Blow off tops can reach extremes though. Actually everyone including me or almost everyone expects the dollar to be trading at a higher value to the euro in another year. Even flawed policies can work for a while. The US can keep borrowing and spending more than they can ever possibility pay back until the interest payments on our debt liabilities get way beyond our ability to pay and then comes either hyperinflation or a collapse of our currency and it could easily ruins millions of lives if our money becomes worthless 15 to 20 years from now. If I ran my own island and borrowed 2 million a year, my island could have a booming economy, I could offer Obamacare to everyone on my island and my currency could go up in value. It's game over if creditors do something after figuring out all the money borrowed will never get paid back. For years on the island, everyone might think I was brilliant and people might even question what could possibly go wrong? Actually if things continue on as is, I hope that 15 to 20 years becomes over 40 so that my life savings is still worth something when I want to retire.
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I won't get too worried about the debt. Most of it is owed to the Fed and has long maturities. The rates are low too. When the interest is due the Fed just rolls it out and remits it back to the treasury as general revenue. We are on a trajectory for a surplus soon as well. If the fed stops rolling it out the principle will also gets remitted to general revenue.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    I'm not jaded at all. I'm not even, as you say, anti-Capitalist. I just know that we are all capable of more than just feeding bubble after bubble, and selling ourselves and our labors to speculators.

    There are real technical and social problems which need to be solved. Speculators do none of this. They cause problems.

    I know that collectively we can build a good future, not the nightmare that speculators and Ponzi Schemes continue to set us up for.

    No more bubbles, no more speculation, no more booms. We can't stop the Dougsters, but we can decline to go along with them.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    The dollar won't crash our economy, our politics would do that first, which is why your best bet is the US for its political stability. Anyone trashing US economics and its future on the world scene must also lose confidence in its political strength. If you are one of those that doubt the U.S. ability going forward, then u must jump ship and ex-patriot yourself and find another country to reside. It only makes sense to put your money where your mouth is, if you really believe your opinions are correct. The pessimism I see is such victim mentality it's stupid, and also a much windier way to view the world as it requires little effort to point out what's wrong with the world.
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    When the economy heats up the Feds balance sheet will drop in proportion to how well the U.S. gdp goes up. This is the balancing act that will be played out going forward, which will be to dwindle down on treasuries. The big bond bubble will only effect those caught in the long end or duration of bonds, and since the fed has most of this market(along with foreign depositors) this can only mean slow rate hikes going forward. Dollar value will adjust slowly and emerging markets will slowly come out of their trough. Small companies will trail and not lead going forward. I gotta quit this thread!
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    It has been suggested that the Fed could lower their balance, but their plan seems to be to hold to maturity.

    @SJG: You're not anti-Capitalist but you want people to live in more "tribal" manners? Explain that one.

    Also the best solution to social and technical problems is to increase the general wealth and efficiently allocate capital, so people in the financial world play a very important role in all of it.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    I'm not anti-Capitalist, but that still does not mean that I think we should submit to the rule of Capitalism.

    Setting up at least provisional realms of limited tribalism, which I am now trying to do, is a way of seceding. It is also a way of taking care of people. We will take care of our people because they are our people.

    None of our people will ever be unemployed or not engaged in life long learning. None of our people will ever have the idiotic experience of "looking for a job".

    The United States is not a nation built to serve Capitalism, never has never will be. I support counter culture movements, which are the greatest thing about our wonderful country.

    I oppose all Ponzi schemes, bubbles, and booms.

    Even Capitalism itself does not depend on any of the above.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    Sounds interesting. Can you explain more about these "provisional realms of limited tribalism" where everyone is taken care and nobody has to look for a job?
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I think the US is run today with Utilitarian aims not Capitalist ones. We'll mix socialism and capitalism as required to achieve those ends. We started off more "capitalistic", but have become more socialistic as has been necessary from historical lessons. Has it gone too far the other way yet?
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Some of it I still have to keep close to the vest, as it is work in progress. But basically the men will pay membership dues. That money goes for our club houses and a shuttle van network. My own salary for running this will be $1 per year.

    Of course this being the United States of America, we will be a religion, so then contributions are tax deductible and we will pay no real property tax. Natch.

    Women usually will pay zero dues or other costs. The exception might be after we have gotten them set up in long term high wage professions. But otherwise they pay nothing for anything ever.

    The women will be treated to certain long term economic benefits, first. We have to do this to keep them happy, and to counter the false promises of mainstream, i.e. Middle Class, life.

    Everyone in our group has an Advocate. This person represents you in all matters. Anything ever wrong, just press the cell phone button to reach your Advocate, or just explain the whole thing in an email and expect a rapid reply. Either your Advocate will act, or someone else who is backing him or her up will act for you. You are never alone. If you lose your cell phone, go into a library and send an email, or pick up a payphone and dial the 1-800 number. Never alone, never need to try and solve major problems by yourself. If you are in jail or the hospital, just ask them to call the number on the card in your wallet, or on the tags sown into your clothes. ( Notice how this very idea is extremely threatening to the rule of Capitalism. We are not anti-Capitalist. In fact, we are a sort of Capitalist ourselves. But we are against the rule of Capitalism. )

    Your Advocate looks out for you, especially in the areas of living space, continuing education, and career. Everyone of course always has all three.

    People are welcome at all times to act alone and make their own arrangements. But no one even needs to do so. We do not preach, promote, or enforce the "self-reliance ethic", as it is stupid. It is based on a false premise, kind of like Original Sin.

    Anything wrong, just contact your Advocate and the problem will be solved immediately. Need a new place to live? Need a new job? Run into some sort of a road block in your education? Just contact your Advocate and expect immediate results.

    Our people don't have to sit in the park and drink beer. Our people don't have to wait in line at the welfare office. Our people don't need to wait in line at the unemployment office. Our people don't have to deal with problematic roommates either. Our people don't ever have to 'look for a job', as that is idiotic and degrading.

    Whatever you need is handed to you, and at once. So in certain respects it resembles being in the military. But it is always voluntary. And we always take care of our people, working with them to help them reach their long term objectives. Your Advocate is also like your Spiritual Director.

    The way it typically would be is your Advocate checks in with you about once every 3 months, or once every month. Ready for a bigger job, a career move up, a lateral move? Ready for an executive position and equity in one of our startups ( a very different type of startup from one done by KP )? Education going okay? Living situation okay? Want to take some time off and travel around via our shuttle van system ( often expected more that women would be doing this, and usually women are the van drivers as it is a form of employment )

    The Advocate is always helping you to plan the next step. Really, the Advocate is always looking to make it happen for you. You don't need to lift a finger.

    Some people work within our organization. And of course if we need to set that up, we can do it in just 60 seconds. Some people live that way too. No delay. This is always our back up.

    We even take the people the middle class family has used as scapegoats and we give them restorative justice. Notice that I did not say anything like Recovery, Rehabilitation, or Salvation. These words are not in our lexicon. We work with willing people who have been on the down and out and give them Restorative Justice. This is not any kind of a Second Chance, it is the first chance that they never had. Really it is not even a chance, it is a guarantee, a place in the world with very little risk, because we will take care of them as things continue to unfold.

    Now especially in the start, most of the men will be employed outside and living outside. Our continuing education system and our networking, and via the sorts of people we invite, these people will get phenomenal career advancement. Their pay deltas will far exceed the dues they have to pay us. And of course we will do our best to keep our dues fully tax deductible, natch.

    But our group is at core a religious group. It is as much of a religious group as any Buddhist or Roman Catholic monastic order is. It is just that the rules and premises are different. But everyone will be involved in regular rituals and spiritual growth exercises.

    So it is invitation only. We don't waste time dealing with people who are not with us in body, mind, and spirit.

    This is why our people are perfectly reliable employees, coworkers, and roommates. You will not find among our people a single person of the sort I call, "Federal Express Driver", or "Shit Head".

    This is also why arranging outside employment for our people is extremely easy. Our people are zero risk. No one gets into our group until we really know them. Again, just like a Roman Catholic or Buddhist monastic order.

    There is a great deal more to this that I am not disclosing. But suffice to say, every single one of our members lives an extremely good life. They can be rich or they can be poor. I plan to be rich, but not from membership dues, form the opportunities created by the group and its networking potential. I will be my own VC, a different kind of VC than what you are used to. And of course I don't give a shit how many booms, busts, or New Economies are proclaimed, The stuff I ( we ) will do, does not depend upon that. In most cases we will not even be interested in using the Stock Market to get back our capital. More than half of our things will not even be taken public. What we do we are in for the long long term, well beyond my own lifetime.

    But rich or poor, every single one of our member will live an extremely good life. And always first and foremost, we take care of our women for as long as they live.

    Enough said, and thank you for asking. And I'm sure that now you can see why I have no interest in outside investment, especially given the fact that our people are orders of magnitude better than the people who run the outside stuff.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I'm going to have to think about that one for a day, SJG. As you usual, you are either a genius or completely off your rocker. :-)
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Thanks :-)

    SJG
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    One more thing I will add is that just for practical reasons and because we want our people to be sane, they all need to demonstrate that they have made the individual decision that they are done forever with alcohol, drugs, tobacco, born again Christianity, psychiatric medication, and motivationalism.

    We don't deal with people who are in Recovery as that is bull shit.

    From them men we expect clear proof right up front. Doesn't matter if you are a brian surgeon or have 5 Phd's, or if you live under a bridge, or all of the above. Must show us you are done with the escapisms.

    For women, we cut them a little bit more slack. They can partake and see how it goes, and only after that are they expected to have made such decisions.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I think there are some good ideas in there, SJG. At the very least it would be an interesting idea (maybe like the 19th century ones into Utopian Socialism?)

    Here's some things I wonder:

    it seems the cost to provide people with all the things you want - especially "lifelong learning" would be very high. Do you have in mind that some academics you know would volunteer to do this "for free"?

    I also wonder if people would just want to use this "religion" as long as helped them get started then move on once they were doing okay on their one. If the value of the "network"/tribe is enough I can see them remaining loyal, lifelong members.

    Seems very dependent on picking the right types of people. You seem to fancy your powers of judgement infallible given all your "no risk" statements. I wonder how realistic that is, though. What do you do when you see you've made a bad decision regarding someone's "membership"?
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    KISS! Keep it simple and your plan will all work out.

    Wait! What's your plan anyway? Change the system? Because our current system is broken? Well that was easy, SJG. Your thoughts are provoking, yet unrelateable to general population. A flat tax rate campaign would better serve your agenda and easier to follow through.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    For people who are attending traditional colleges, we will offer encouragement and emotional support, plus a membership dues waiver. We will stand with them for the duration.

    For everyone else, continuing education will be by supervised independent studies. This will be part of the complete membership dues package. The cost is very low. The primary objective of formal education should be teaching you to teach yourself. In our age of media, you can get whatever you need, plus we will offer support and supervision.

    We will look for an accredited American college which will be willing to give degrees to our people. But until then, it is just supervised independent studies. Everyone will be doing this.

    There are things about the group which I must keep close to the vest for now. But suffice to say, everyone involved will be getting benefits which go way above and beyond the cost of their membership dues. There is so much that they will not need to be paying for anymore.

    Remember, communalism is the way of beating capitalism.

    1. Living with comrades is cheaper. And our people don't cause problems for each other. It becomes a Family of Choice.

    2. If you live communally in a group which has explicit doctrines, then everyone involved is legitimated. So there is no more keeping up with the Joneses. Most of the things which most people think they need, are no longer needed as all they ever were for was to establish social status, or for escapism.

    So the reduction in cost of living alone far exceeds the membership dues. But then there is the career advancement and earnings increase which our people will enjoy. This also far exceeds the membership dues.

    Make no doubt about this, it is about gaining power, and about kicking some ass.

    I helped put a Pentecostal Daughter Molester into San Quentin. He was sexually fondling his daughters, and blaming it on the eldest daughter. I only needed to hear his pitch once, then I got involved and I stayed with it through two trials.

    His whole church stood with him and blamed it on the eldest daughter. They all do things like that, abuse their children and then blame it on the child. And then they use their outreach ministries to try and do the same things to other people's adult children.

    I want to go after these people!

    We will have the most aggressive lawyers in the world. We will have armed private investigators, armed skip tracers, armed process servers, and armed security guards, who have all been trained by retired military and police. People who exploit their children will pay!

    We are not pacifists and we are not interested in seceding from the world. We are going to be kicking ass.

    I attended an earlier trial, a man who had beaten up the elderly Jesuit who had 35 years previously raped himself and his younger brother act the ages of 7 and 4. Activists filled the court room to try and get him off. It worked.

    I tried to get activists to fill the court room, this time on the Prosecution side, for the Pentecostal Molester's trial. No success. These activists would not touch it.

    Our new group will act.

    America is filled with the victims of parental child abuse. It is just that it is all covered over with psychotherapy, psychiatric medication, the Recovery Movement and Probations, Paroles, Prison, Jail, and County Mental Health working in conjunction with it, and then of course the Evangelicals and Motivationalists, and then those who promote the Self-Reliance Ethic.

    I don't go along with any of this. It is all just a repackaging of the doctrine of Original Sin, or Innate Moral Defect. I reject that. I say that everyone wants to do well. They want to win the admiration of friends and family. So if you see that it is not going well for someone, then there must be some reason.

    @Dougster, you've spoken about people who don't give a fuck. Well people are not born that way, they are made that way.

    We will work with these people, if they are willing to work with us. But we will also go after the perpetrators, people who instead of dealing with their own stuff, decide that they can have children and use the children. We will make these people sorry they ever lived. We will go after them and go after them and go after them until law and order breaks down. We will be as aggressive as those who ran the Underground Railroad, and as aggressive as Harriet Tubman and John Brown.


    To talk about organization and governance, remember I've talked about the idea of a worker owned brothel, say in Tijuana. The two basic organizational models are that of a labor union, or that of a religious order.

    In a labor union it is more democratic. Anyone who is a full member gets a vote.

    In a religious order it is not democratic, it is hierarchical. One gains rank through years of supervised service and promotions. This is the model more attractive to me, for all sorts of things.

    In most communal situations you give up some freedoms, often illusory freedoms, in order to get the benefits.

    I know the Libertarian argument. "I can ride my Harley Davidson around in circles in my living room, without a helmet, and while firing my gun in the air, and no government has the right to stop me."

    The consequence of this is something pretty close to a police state, and having to work in stupid meaningless jobs in order to earn a living because of competition and the presumption on inadequacy.

    So the alternative is to accept some sort of tribalism, within some limits, and then to derive the benefits.

    I know of the mother of a friend who is a "nun with hair" at the Chinese Buddhist Monastery in Los Angeles. She still has hair because she has not been allowed to take final vows, because she is still deemed not ready. This is how it works in such orders. You have to prove yourself truly ready before you advance. Lots of people never really do get in.

    Here in San Jose, on McKee, we have an affiliated Chinese Buddhist Temple, with men and women monastics. On McLaughlin we have a Vietnamese version of the same thing.

    Then in the foothills of San Jose we have another Chinese Buddhist Community using what had been public school. Then further up we have the Carmelite Men. I know someone who has been one of their tertiaries for decades. He spends most of his time there each day.

    Then in Santa Clara, a few blocks from the Jesuit college, they have the Carmelite Women.

    These groups all run very well and with few problems.

    If you or I wanted to join one of them, they would assign us a Spiritual Director and a process of discernment would begin. To get to the point of being considered a serious candidate could take many years. Then even once made a novice and being enrolled in formal training, it could take another 10 years before one could take final vows. And then to become someone of rank, it could take decades more.

    So the governance of these sorts of institutions is inherently conservative and disciplined. No one gets anywhere until they are really on board and have shown this under stress. Likewise, no one is even an official member until we really know them well, it being a Family of Choice.

    With the women we accept that they tend to think a bit differently and will have to see and experience how it works first hand, and over a period of some years, before they can really commit to it.

    With the men, we expect much more up front.

    Initially these men will all be people strong in math and science, though not necessarily having to be trained in traditional universities. They will also need to display a commitment to reflection, self awareness, and social activism.

    Later on, we will be able to broaden our focus, but the requirements for display of character will never change.

    When people see that there is benefit to be obtained and that something works well, they can come around to commit. This is how it works in religious orders. We have an aggressive Catholic vocational counseling program here.

    For myself the way I look at it is this. The people who write college level text books for Math and Physics are able to read them just like they were the morning newspaper. They already know all the standard example problems backwards and forwards. So why shouldn't I be able to know the material just as well and to read the text books just as easily? The way things work now with libraries, I can get all the books of that sort I want. I believe everyone is capable of learning much more than they typically do. It is just that our culture is not supportive of this. Our group will be a repository of concentrated knowledge, and of self awareness, and we will be committed to political activism.

    The vast majority of those who are cast into the underclass and the untouchable realm have never had a place in the world. Usually they are the scapegoats of the Middle Class Family. Some of these people will be impossible to reach. Marx said that they lacked revolutionary consciousness. And this is often still true. But it does not apply to everyone and it is much more a reflection of our society than of an individual problem. Over 100 years later, Frantz Fanon wrote that the Lumpen Proletariate could indeed have revolutionary consciousness and that its actions could be disruptive, and extremely useful. He was talking about pimps, prostitutes, drug dealers, and petti thieves. He described such persons as those, who because of the pressures created by capitalism, had been rejected by family and clan.

    While initially we will be going after men who have well developed careers in science and technology, we will eventually also be reaching out to those who have never had such a chance. We don't deal in Recovery, Rehabilitation, or Salvation. These are nonsense. We work in the struggle to obtain Restorative Justice.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    Sounds like it will be at least an interesting idea, SJG. Best of luck! Keep us posted on how it goes!
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Just check on the newspapers from time to time. We will be both active and controversial.

    Years and years ago I met some followers of the Bagwan Shree Rajneesh. They made a very negative impression on me. But in the decades since I have read everything I possible can about that group. In my opinion, it never worked well except for when they were in India. And also, there is much very negative about the group. There was also a time in the early 80's when lots of MBOT dancers were with them, flying up to Oregon once per week and they say putting in lots of money. I think I encountered some of these dancers at MBOT once, and the impression they made on me was negative.

    But overall, I still say there is much which can be learned from that group.

    Then there is this. I used to read it on paper.
    http://www.ic.org/communities-magazine-h…

    Our people will be 10 times as smart as the people coming out of traditional universities and the people who run the KP start ups and make the financial, legal, and technological decisions.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    This is an example of why I've heard the phrase "California is full of fruits and nuts" which is why it's fun to visit, but not live there.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    This book is very interesting, and I read it when it first came out.
    http://www.amazon.com/Sisters-Krishna-Mo…

    Though I don't go along with any of the groups she considers, it is still extremely interesting. What it suggests is that you can make any kind of a group go, if you can get people to go along with you. And further, often the most challenging part will be to find something which appeals equally well to both women and men. This of course if the import of Palmer's studies.

    That said though, the possibilities are endless.

    Palmer herself is in Utah and was raised in the LDS. Though now long separated from such, she still does bring some of their views into how she sees situations. But also, she does understand that all religion is at least to some degree, "invented". LDS is one of the most brazen examples of this. It is just that it is from the early 19th Century. They were chased out of place after place too, before settling in Salt Lake City. People think they were chased out because of polygamy. But this is not true. Even when their founder Adam Smith was killed by a mob in Nauvoo Illinois, polygamy was a closely guarded secret. The reason they were always getting chased out was because of economic communalism. It gave their people an edge, and this made other people extremely angry.

    I don't go along with the key beliefs of the Raelians, an extraterrestrial focused group. And I disapprove of their cloning hoax. But it is still interesting that at least at their HQ in Montreal, they have attracted huge numbers of young women, and the women usually do dress quite sexy, and you see this as they put on protest marches on the street in front of the Mary Queen of the World Catholic Cathedral. Sometimes these feature such women wearing low cut tops and blowing up condoms like they were balloons. Palmer says that, at least in and around Montreal, a large number of their women are strippers. Palmer says it is simply that strippers find themselves unwelcome in traditional religion. Not so amongst the Raelians.

    I am not sure though if it is like this beyond Montreal, and outside of the range of the personal charisma of the org's founder.

    But what all of this says to me is that if you really want to, you could invent just about anything. And I have spent decades studying cults and esoteric groups of all different sorts.

    Another source for such material is Robert Heinlein's "Stranger in a Strange Land". In its pages you have the fictional group, the "Fosterites". In part this is a parody of LDS, but it also includes many elements which LDS never could. Then there is the group invented by the books protagonist, "The Church of All Worlds". Then there is the real life adaptation of this, the "Church of All Possible Worlds". And then there are things like CES.

    http://www.cesidaho.org/

    And then there is a long history of esoteric and gnostic groups, and then fraternal orders and secret societies. I actually don't go along with any of them. But I do find in each of them that there is much which can be learned.

    And then of course there are VC's very different from KP. One I find interesting is Vinod Khosla.

    And then of course we have in Germany:
    http://www.fraunhofer.de/en/about-fraunh…

    Again, I don't support any of these things, but I try to learn all I can from studying each of them.

    SJG

    Eric Burdon and War, Paint it Black
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTbvJ-bY…
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    I want a "Fans of SJG" t-shirt!
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    ^^^ Bi-polar, schizoid with bursts of euphoria! How do we capture the moments of the great SJG on a t-shirt? I say he looks a lot like the characters Zach Gallafanakis(sic) so there's a start. I still think you're a great contributor SJG, just opposing views of the norm.
  • ime
    10 years ago
    If anyone else watches it's always sunny in philadelphia i'd wager he looks like Frankito. Frank Reynolds love child from the housekeeper.
  • ime
    10 years ago
    http://cdn.pastemagazine.com/www/article…

    SJG is the one on the right.
  • Josh43
    10 years ago
    @Meat: What makes SJG fascinating and likable is that he's a sort of modern day Don Quixote. Dougster says he sometimes tilts at windmills. But the similarity goes further: Like SJG, Quixote was a smart guy who went slightly nuts by reading too much. And like SJG, Don Quixote elevated prostitutes to much more than sex workers:

    Plot synopsis of Don Quixote online (CH2):
    "He mistakes the scheming innkeeper for the keeper of a castle and mistakes two prostitutes he meets outside for princesses. He recites poetry to the two prostitutes, who laugh at him but play along. They remove his armor and feed him dinner. He refuses to remove his helmet, which is stuck on his head, but he enjoys his meal because he believes he is in a great castle where princesses are entertaining him."
  • Clackport
    10 years ago
    SJG! SJG! SJG!
  • Mate27
    10 years ago
    If I was SJG every girl would want to have sex with me for pleasure. I like this guy, even though he probably has me on ignore. He is nothing like the Rickyboy.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Tilting at windmills? Not really. I helped put a Pentecostal Daughter Molester into San Quentin. His entire church had stood with him too. They still stand with him.

    Our country is crazy because of the denial of child abuse. It is in the drugs and the alcohol, and the Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Salvation Programs. It is also in our neoliberal economics which have trashed the future of an entire generation, and which Dougster makes money off of.

    SJG
  • Dougster
    10 years ago
    You're a good guy, SJG, but we do have some differences in our political, economic, and market views. In time you will see that I am right. Millennials will prosper like no other generation in world history.
  • san_jose_guy
    10 years ago
    Millennials may indeed prosper, but it will be because they reject the neoliberal politics which underlies your financial advice.

    You are also a good guy, Dougster. I know that your own political views are not as extreme as those of many on the Right. But I also know that to get to where we are now, our country has already given up too much.

    Are there others who are interested in Rajneesh? For one think it is a situation which was not P4P, nor was it true love and the conveyor belt to marriage, but guys were getting drenched in pussy. It is possible in countercultural realms to have that! There are not only two alternatives.

    From my perspective though I have to say that the Rajneesh group never did work outside of India. By the time they came to the US, it was already over. And also, it never really was popular with Indians in India. It was popular with US and Western European refugees from the middle class and conventional religion.

    SJG
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