discussion comment
2 years ago
Mark, I use a lot of common sense in my simplistic analysis, and that being is that markets generally don’t lie. If the 5 and 10 year (3.5%)treasury yield is over 100 basis points lower than the feds overnight rate is, once they decide to up short term rates 25 basis points February 1st to above 4.5%+. Then that portends that over the next 5-10 years the inflation trend will go back to normal. I’d venture to say when the treasury department states its variable inflation bond rate in May, you’ll be seeing that rate under 4%. It gauges the cpi rate from Oct ‘22 to April ‘23. Can’t wait for that report to see what is most recent, as all official data lags 12- 18 months. When the fed was telling us inflation was transitory in 2021, they were using old information, and still using that for their stance. For those of us with income and discretionary funds, it’s a great time to buy when appreciable assets are on sale, after they’ve depreciated.
discussion comment
2 years ago
SkiDumb “hey, wake up asshole”
Jeez, even your dick knows you are an ass whole!
discussion comment
2 years ago
^^ corporations aren’t forcing you to buy soda and chips, but you’re forcing the stores to give you their product? Course you’ll rationalize anything you do as long as it elevates your stature. Like everyone says, you’re a no hood thieving bum. Don’t go to stores anymore you hypocrite. If you don’t like the prices, grow your own food and hunt for game, slacker.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Your online tough guy persona is nothing like you in real life. I’m gonna guess, but with pretty good odds you’ve never seen someone drop in real life in need of resuscitation. If so, it’s nothing like a broken leg. When you literally see someone’s life start to pass by it’s hard to unsee it, especially at these young guy’s age. They did the right thing. His team mates close to him couldn’t process what they saw in that shirt of time. It was too much shock to the team, and others witnessing.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Jeez Icee, you ever heard that if you win stupid games you get stupid prizes? This game you’re playing takes the cake!
review comment
2 years ago
Going back to Cali, back to Cali….
discussion comment
2 years ago
You wanted facts on what happens on the ground, well here it is! Record breaking precipitation hits the west coast and moves inward today. Happy New Year and hallelujah, holy shit! This atmospheric river is dumping a shit ton of snow in the west and warming up the east.
https://apple.news/Aq2rWJa2XR-mJAXEOy10nTQ
15 million people are under winter weather alerts as the record-setting storm that inundated California pushes east
Updated 9:33 AM EST January 1, 2023
More than 15 million people from California to Wisconsin are under winter weather alerts Sunday as the Pacific storm system that brought record-setting rainfall and severe flooding pushes east.
Some residents in Northern California are still grappling with epic flooding and power outages after the storm system led to highway closures and water rescues Saturday.
The city of Oakland had its wettest day on record Saturday, with 4.75 inches of rain in a 24-hour period -- beating the previous record set on January 4, 1982, the National Weather Service office in San Francisco said.
The severe weather was caused by a powerful atmospheric river -- a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles, like a fire hose in the sky.
Now, as that same storm system heads east, it could dump a foot of snow across the Sierras and up to 2 feet of snow in parts of the Rockies by late Monday. Local forecasters warn travel could be difficult.
300,000 left in the dark
The severe weather, which included high winds, knocked out power to about 300,000 homes and businesses across California and Nevada as of early Sunday, according to Poweroutage.US.
The storm also forced some Northern California residents out of their homes on New Year's Eve as streets started to flood and evacuation orders and warnings were issued.
In addition to urban flooding, several rivers started overflowing -- including the Cosumnes and Mokelumne rivers and the Mormon Slough, according to the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
Despite the flooding headaches, the moisture is actually a relief for drought-stricken California -- which started 2022 with the driest beginning of the year on record and ended the year with drenched roadways and thick mountain snow.
But it's not clear how much the storm will make a dent in California's drought conditions.
'Too many road closures to count'
Officials ordered residents in Wilton -- roughly 20 miles from Sacramento -- to leave the area immediately at one point Saturday, warning that rising water may spill onto roadways and cut off access to leave the area. About two hours later, Wilton residents were told to shelter in place after water made roads "impassable."
Three communities near the city of Watsonville were also told to evacuate by the Santa Cruz County Sheriff's Office due to creek flooding, while the rising San Lorenzo River waters prompted evacuations in the communities of Paradise Park and Felton.
In San Ramon, police used an armored rescue vehicle to evacuate residents from floodwater.
"Flooding impacts continue to escalate as this rain continues with too many road closures to count at this point," the NWS said Saturday. The weather service told residents to stay put amid reports of rock and mudslides across the foothills and road closures across the Sierra passes.
Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District crews performed water rescues and responded to drivers whose vehicles became disabled after they drove through standing water Saturday, officials said.
Calling it "Stormageddon," the Amador County Sheriff's Office shared an image of cars up to their doorhandles in floodwater.
Highway 50 reopened just after midnight, hours after a section between Pollock Pines and Meyers was closed due to flooding from the American River. Another section was closed over Echo Summit for avalanche control work.
Interstate 80 was also partially closed near the Nevada line midday Saturday "due to multiple spinouts over Donner Summit," according to the California Department of Transportation.
US Highway 101 -- one of California's most famous routes -- was also temporarily closed in both directions in South San Francisco with California Highway Patrol reporting "water is not receding due to non-stop rainfall & high tides preventing the water to displace."
In the Sacramento County area, residents were advised to avoid travel as wind gusts of up to 55 mph toppled trees and covered roads with debris, according to a tweet from the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
The county proclaimed a state of emergency, saying the atmospheric river has caused "significant transportation impacts, rising creek and river levels and flooding" in the Wilton area.
Downtown San Francisco got 5.46 inches Saturday, making it the second wettest day on record for the area, according to the National Weather Service in the Bay Area.
This heavy rainfall is expected to slide southward to Southern California on Sunday, accompanied by gusty winds of 30 to 50 mph.
Sierra Nevada range sees heavy snowfall
While parts of Northern California grapple with heavy rainfall, mountainous areas are getting covered with snow.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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rickthelionStraight outta tha NC, comin' atcha with an AK ready to steal your daughter. ROAR!!!
Fah q SkiDumb. Not all ricks were treated as equals. You know some of them are simply stoic, all hat and no cattle. It takes all types you know. Stay safe as you celebrate your Happy New Year!
review comment
2 years ago
Ha Scrub, I get my sugar and candy at other stores.
review comment
2 years ago
Fuck you Scrub, because I bet you still paid $10 floor and $25 vip. Same as always! Anyway, I still got my reliable provider at another club, and she will sing for me for $100 plus tip and be happy to do it. No mess and no fuss! You can’t get me to go to HL with that kind of deal, no way!
discussion comment
2 years ago
^^ 25, thanks for accentuating my point. Most people do not give a shit, and rightly so since there are plenty of other things to focus on (boobies). This oscillation does affect everyone in the states, so it does interest me and maybe a few others. Don’t really care, but the fact that I have business interest laying upon the affects of the oscillation cycle makes it more exciting! For example, there have been cut backs on allocations from the Colorado river, and farmers are the first on the chopping block. If water is too expensive or even not delivered, food costs soar across the nation. That will not happen over the next few years, because of beneficial precipitation the past 6 months from our monsoon ensuring local farmers a solid water source. Another article (local) that backs this up. The dam’s water level in eastern Arizona is at its highest point in December ever, but the media wants to paint a dire future for the southwest. It’s just not so, and the change in ENSO strengthens our position. You’re welcome, especially for those who care!
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/coolidge-dam-records-highest-water-level-in-5-years-a-relief-for-arizona-farmers.amp
Six months ago, Caywood Farms in Casa Grande was dusty, dry and brown. Now it's wet, muddy and most importantly - it's green.
"Oh yes, we’re happy," laughed Nancy Caywood with Caywood Farms. "It feels great. It’s just so nice."
A massively wet monsoon has changed her tune since FOX 10 spoke with Caywood in June.
The Caywood Farm has been in the family for five generations, dating back to the 1930s. They have dealt with droughts before, but nothing like this drought, which left parched fields with no crops, and canals filled with tumbleweeds instead of water.
Now, the alfalfa is green. She's even planted oats.
The canals that lead up to her property are full again thanks to Coolidge Dam, which had dried up in June.
Ongoing drought hits Pinal County farmers hard
As Arizona's drought continues, farmers in Pinal County are facing some difficult choices. FOX 10's Brian Webb reports.
Today, the water levels are at 220,700 acre feet, the highest mark since March 2017. It's also the highest December total recorded, according to online USGS data.
"Very, very variable situation but we’re in business another year, I can guarantee you that," said Shane Lindstrom with the San Carlos Irrigation District.
Lindstrom says Wednesday's rain is important, but it's all about where it falls.
"If it falls upstream Coolidge Dam it’s beneficial, if it falls downstream…we can’t store it," he explained.
Meanwhile, Nancy Caywood says they’re now planning to plant a lot of corn in this field because of Coolidge's water levels.
"We just have to hope for more rain and lots of snow in the watershed," Caywood said.
She knows it's just for one season, but it's hard to not be optimistic.
"We have to hope for more," Caywood said. "Hope the drought is over but…just getting this rain doesn’t mean the drought is over. We have to continue."
Nancy says they were expecting to get two clippings of alfalfa this year. Instead, they got four.
However, on a typical year they would hope for eight to 10 clippings, so there's still more progress to be made.
review comment
2 years ago
I approve this review. Written exactly how I have scripted my visits, down to turning left to the bathrooms to adjust my eyes onto missing the popcorn. My biggest problem is not being a regular. Dancers prefer to wait it out for their regulars to show. They’ll even wait in the dressing room instead of working the room.
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://apple.news/AFFd8DtmYRDKZaobg3CIBsw
Good news for those on the east coast if you are a fan of warmer winter weather. The atmospheric river continuing over the west coast and dumping tons of snow and rain on us, apparently keeps you guys from freezing. Pretty cool graphic found in the link. Another humble brag as the current weather pattern is setting up as ENSO neutral to El Niño, even though ocean waters are measuring cooler as a weakening El Nina. We had a similar pattern last year in the west and it fizzled out to a dry winter once El Nina strengthened. Hoping this current pattern persists and wet weather reigns! (And I get to brag about being right again)
discussion comment
2 years ago
Friendly reminder to not be scared of the past cycle continuing, especially after today’s jobless claims rising, projecting a tighter labor market. Just a simple PSA for those preparing for the New Year. Even Scrooge changed his mindset at the end!
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wharton-jeremy-siegel-stock-market-forecast-fed-inflation-recession-rates-2022-12?amp
US stocks could surge 20% in the first 6 months of 2023 as the Fed wraps up its inflation fight, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
Theron Mohamed Dec 28, 2022, 10:49 AM
Read in app
Jeremy Siegel Wharton CNBC
Scott Mlyn/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images
US stocks could soar up to 20% in the first half of next year, Jeremy Siegel said.
The Fed may cut interest rates to as low as 2% by the end of 2023, the Wharton professor said.
Improved worker productivity might shore up company profits and buoy stocks, Siegel said
review comment
2 years ago
Glad to see there was talent during this holiday season. The two times I went in this month was less than average dancer talent. Enjoy. The AA contingency can provide better service if you pay attention to the right ones.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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founderslip a dollar in her g-string for me
So a self professed degenerate in Rickyboi conjures up another story regarding the need for me to take meds? Wow, that’s rich even for this place. Can’t wait to see what other stories of make believe come from the mind of one who tosses his word salad around as a means to get his way in life. Whatever fits your narrative, little boi. 2023 is the year “I told you so!”
discussion comment
2 years ago
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founderslip a dollar in her g-string for me
Rickyboi, it’s well known you lack reading comprehension skills, so let’s review…copy and pasted for your remedial needs.
coming from you it’s all laughter and fuel for fodder. I’m sure in your mind you’ve conjured up a story,
Mic drop!
discussion comment
2 years ago
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founderslip a dollar in her g-string for me
You neglect the fact in order for that to happen one must value your opinion, therefore since there is no value coming from you it’s all laughter and fuel for fodder. I’m sure in your mind you’ve conjured up a story, but alas like Santa Claus and the tooth fairy, they’re all imaginary in one’s head. By the way, I told you so is the theme that will be raining throughout 2023!
discussion comment
2 years ago
Ahhh the troll has a conscious? ^^ Well I can definitely tell all from my experience they do not allow any hoodies at night. I wore a hoodie that said “FBI Academy” that my good friend who is now a police chief gave me when he was younger. Yeah, I got turned away at the door that night. Wore the same hoodie several times during the day with no issues (winter time). I even explained to the doorman how it isn’t gang related due to the insignia “FBI”, and I got a hard no way you can’t come in. Yeah, that definitely sets a more ghetto vibe than daytime. I even got turned away at night once for wearing a favorite ball cap that had “colors” on it. To be fair, this was several years ago since I tried to do a nighttime visit, but after that treatment it isn’t exactly the welcoming you
Prefer to have to be comfortable as a patron when getting turned away at the door when those dress codes were enforced during the evening shift.
discussion comment
2 years ago
![]()
founderslip a dollar in her g-string for me
^^ can we at least see another one of your humble brags that you are the most degenerate of all of us on tuscl?
discussion comment
2 years ago
![]()
founderslip a dollar in her g-string for me
^^ go back to bed, Founder was wishing everybody Merry Christmas except for you! He knows how much of a lying thief you are.
discussion comment
2 years ago
Wow, an article today comes out stating exactly what I predicted! Any way, it bodes well for the type of weather we out here in the west crave.
https://apple.news/AqesPF8CPQfakf_w3iNGZiA
WIRED WORLD
El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared
Global heating will set the stage for extreme weather everywhere in 2023. The consequences are likely to be cataclysmic.
IN 2023, THE relentless increase in global heating will continue, bringing ever more disruptive weather that is the signature calling card of accelerating climate breakdown.
According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth. This is extraordinary, because the recurrent climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)—was in its cool phase. During this phase, called La Niña, the waters of the equatorial Pacific are noticeably cooler than normal, which influences weather patterns around the world.
One consequence of La Niña is that it helps keep a lid on global temperatures. This means that—despite the recent widespread heat waves, wildfires and droughts—we have actually been spared the worst. The scary thing is that this La Niña will end and eventually transition into the better-known El Niño, which sees the waters of the equatorial Pacific becoming much warmer. When it does, the extreme weather that has rampaged across our planet in 2021 and 2022 will pale into insignificance.
Current forecasts suggest that La Niña will continue into early 2023, making it—fortuitously for us—one of the longest on record (it began in Spring 2020). Then, the equatorial Pacific will begin to warm again. Whether or not it becomes hot enough for a fully fledged El Niño to develop, 2023 has a very good chance—without the cooling influence of La Niña—of being the hottest year on record.
A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.
Don't miss the latest from WIRED. Sign up for stories you won't find anywhere else.
But what will this mean exactly? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record for the highest recorded temperature—currently 54.4°C (129.9°F) in California's Death Valley—shattered. This could well happen somewhere in the Middle East or South Asia, where temperatures could climb above 55°C. The heat could exceed the blistering 40°C mark again in the UK, and for the first time, top 50°C in parts of Europe.
Inevitably, higher temperatures will mean that severe drought will continue to be the order of the day, slashing crop yields in many parts of the world. In 2022, extreme weather resulted in reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe, increasing food insecurity. Stocks are likely to be lower than normal going into 2023, so another round of poor harvests could be devastating. Resulting food shortages in most countries could drive civil unrest, while rising prices in developed countries will continue to stoke inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.
One of the worst-affected regions will be the Southwest United States. Here, the longest drought in at least 1,200 years has persisted for 22 years so far, reducing the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River so much that power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half. Upstream, the Glen Canyon Dam, on the rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, is forecast to stop generating power in 2023 if the drought continues. The Hoover Dam could follow suit in 2024. Together, these lakes and dams provide water and power for millions of people in seven states, including California. The breakdown of this supply would be catastrophic for agriculture, industry, and populations right across the region.
La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic, so as it begins to fade, hurricane activity can be expected to pick up. The higher global temperatures expected in 2023 could see extreme heating of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico surface waters. This would favor the formation and persistence of super-hurricanes, powering winds and storm surges capable of wiping out a major US city, should they strike land. Direct hits, rather than a glancing blow, are rare—the closest in recent decades being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which made landfall immediately south of Miami, obliterating more than 60,000 homes and damaging 125,000 more. Hurricanes today are both more powerful and wetter, so that the consequences of a city getting in the way of a superstorm in 2023 would likely be cataclysmic.
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discussion comment
2 years ago
Wow, it appears the west is setting up for one of those atmospheric rivers to dump huge amounts of precipitation from the sierras into the southern Rockies next week! My prediction, although setting h up to be accurate, is essentially coming sooner than expected. Slopes will get hit just in time for holiday skiers. A bigger dent will be taken out if this ongoing drought. We will take this as a welcome holiday present to play in and be grateful for this winter! Bye bye La Niña.
discussion comment
2 years ago
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rickthelionStraight outta tha NC, comin' atcha with an AK ready to steal your daughter. ROAR!!!
Rick the Lion is literally and figuratively “the Mane”! You’re the king of the beasts, but not of the heavens. Thank your creator for bringing us all life!
discussion comment
2 years ago
https://apple.news/AAwW5_EPvQeymlsL9k4J9mg
Wow the hits keep coming to inflation making SkiDumb and Tricky Rickyboi looking even stupider as the months roll by, because Housing is going down and the jobs reports aren’t that strong when it is accurately reporting for the household formations. The Scrooges have paused just in time for Christmas! Feds may have to
Pause or slow their rate hikes due to slowing economy.
Today’s PCE coming in around 3% annual adjusted for the last quarter over quarter tracking. Nice!https://www.investors.com/news/economy/fed-new-key-inflation-rate-cooled-in-november-sp-500/
The PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index rose 0.1% on the month. The PCE inflation rate continued to ease from June's 40-year high of 7%, slipping to 5.5%. Core prices, minus food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month as the annual core inflation rate eased to 4.7%.
Wall Street had expected a 0.2% increase in the PCE price index and a 0.2%, with an overall 5.5% inflation rate and 4.6% core rate.
Powell Shifts Goalposts With New Key Inflation Rate
Powell's favorite new inflation rate happens to be the most problematic one for the S&P 500. The gauge factors out goods inflation, which is rapidly falling. It also excludes housing inflation, which appears set to fall in 2023 as government data catches up to the stalling growth of market rents.
That leaves only core services other than housing, such as health care, education, hospitality and haircuts. Because price changes for such services are closely linked to wage growth, they provide the best signal of where core inflation is heading, Powell said.