OT:Weather Prediction: La Niña, ENSO Neutral, or El Niño ?
Mate27
TUSCL’s #1 Soothsayer!
The winter solstice is upon us, and looking forward to the upcoming ski and outdoor season will be up front for many taking advantage of the season. Personally, I’m looking forward to taking a break from our consecutive dry/warm winters, as I predict the La Nina conditions to rapidly weaken over the next few weeks. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/ensowhat
Since this oscillation affects all of our weather, What say you? What weather pattern fits your preference? Mine is ENSO neutral, as it will provide a perfect mix of snow/rain for both green vegetation and outdoor activities. This will make a wetter west pattern and colder east winter season. La Niña dry and warm west, cold snowy in the Midwest/East, or El Niño for a wilder weather pattern across the whol nation, but warmer for the entire nation!! Copy and pasted for your pleasure…
What is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
Note: Most of the information in this article is courtesy of climate.gov.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal.
This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.
El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). In general, the warmer the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the El Niño (and vice-versa).
La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger. In general, the cooler the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the La Niña (and vice-versa).
Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average. However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).
Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean during a strong La Niña (top, December 1988) and a strong El Niño (bottom, December 1997). Maps by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data provided by NOAA View.
ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe. We also focus on ENSO because we can often predict its arrival many seasons in advance of its strongest impacts on weather and climate.
So, by now, you might have noticed that while “ENSO” is a nice catchall acronym for all three states, that acronym doesn’t actually have the word La Niña in it. Why is that? Well, that is a fluke of history. Before La Niña was even recognized, South American fisherman noticed the warm up of coastal waters occurred every so often around Christmas. They referred to the warming as “El Niño,” (niño being Spanish for a boy child) in connection with the Christmas holiday.
Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the “Southern Oscillation,” or large-scale changes in sea level pressure across Indonesia and the tropical Pacific. However, he did not recognize that it was linked to changes in the Pacific Ocean or El Niño. It wasn’t until the late 1960s that Jacob Bjerknes and others realized that the changes in the ocean and the atmosphere were connected and the hybrid term “ENSO” was born. It wasn’t until the 1980s or later that the terms La Niña and Neutral gained prominence.
Typical winter impacts associated with ENSO neutral events. Colder probabilities are favored across north-central and northeast portions of the US, due to a polar jet stream shifted further south. Meanwhile, warmer probabilities are favored across ths southern US, with above normal precipitation favored across portions of the southeast US. Image courtesy of Ray Wolf, National Weather Serivce.
Since this oscillation affects all of our weather, What say you? What weather pattern fits your preference? Mine is ENSO neutral, as it will provide a perfect mix of snow/rain for both green vegetation and outdoor activities. This will make a wetter west pattern and colder east winter season. La Niña dry and warm west, cold snowy in the Midwest/East, or El Niño for a wilder weather pattern across the whol nation, but warmer for the entire nation!! Copy and pasted for your pleasure…
What is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
Note: Most of the information in this article is courtesy of climate.gov.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal.
This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.
El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). In general, the warmer the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the El Niño (and vice-versa).
La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger. In general, the cooler the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the La Niña (and vice-versa).
Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average. However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).
Maps of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean during a strong La Niña (top, December 1988) and a strong El Niño (bottom, December 1997). Maps by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data provided by NOAA View.
ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe. We also focus on ENSO because we can often predict its arrival many seasons in advance of its strongest impacts on weather and climate.
So, by now, you might have noticed that while “ENSO” is a nice catchall acronym for all three states, that acronym doesn’t actually have the word La Niña in it. Why is that? Well, that is a fluke of history. Before La Niña was even recognized, South American fisherman noticed the warm up of coastal waters occurred every so often around Christmas. They referred to the warming as “El Niño,” (niño being Spanish for a boy child) in connection with the Christmas holiday.
Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the “Southern Oscillation,” or large-scale changes in sea level pressure across Indonesia and the tropical Pacific. However, he did not recognize that it was linked to changes in the Pacific Ocean or El Niño. It wasn’t until the late 1960s that Jacob Bjerknes and others realized that the changes in the ocean and the atmosphere were connected and the hybrid term “ENSO” was born. It wasn’t until the 1980s or later that the terms La Niña and Neutral gained prominence.
Typical winter impacts associated with ENSO neutral events. Colder probabilities are favored across north-central and northeast portions of the US, due to a polar jet stream shifted further south. Meanwhile, warmer probabilities are favored across ths southern US, with above normal precipitation favored across portions of the southeast US. Image courtesy of Ray Wolf, National Weather Serivce.
34 comments
Hallelujah!
https://apple.news/AqesPF8CPQfakf_w3iNGZ…
WIRED WORLD
El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared
Global heating will set the stage for extreme weather everywhere in 2023. The consequences are likely to be cataclysmic.
IN 2023, THE relentless increase in global heating will continue, bringing ever more disruptive weather that is the signature calling card of accelerating climate breakdown.
According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth. This is extraordinary, because the recurrent climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)—was in its cool phase. During this phase, called La Niña, the waters of the equatorial Pacific are noticeably cooler than normal, which influences weather patterns around the world.
One consequence of La Niña is that it helps keep a lid on global temperatures. This means that—despite the recent widespread heat waves, wildfires and droughts—we have actually been spared the worst. The scary thing is that this La Niña will end and eventually transition into the better-known El Niño, which sees the waters of the equatorial Pacific becoming much warmer. When it does, the extreme weather that has rampaged across our planet in 2021 and 2022 will pale into insignificance.
Current forecasts suggest that La Niña will continue into early 2023, making it—fortuitously for us—one of the longest on record (it began in Spring 2020). Then, the equatorial Pacific will begin to warm again. Whether or not it becomes hot enough for a fully fledged El Niño to develop, 2023 has a very good chance—without the cooling influence of La Niña—of being the hottest year on record.
A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.
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But what will this mean exactly? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record for the highest recorded temperature—currently 54.4°C (129.9°F) in California's Death Valley—shattered. This could well happen somewhere in the Middle East or South Asia, where temperatures could climb above 55°C. The heat could exceed the blistering 40°C mark again in the UK, and for the first time, top 50°C in parts of Europe.
Inevitably, higher temperatures will mean that severe drought will continue to be the order of the day, slashing crop yields in many parts of the world. In 2022, extreme weather resulted in reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe, increasing food insecurity. Stocks are likely to be lower than normal going into 2023, so another round of poor harvests could be devastating. Resulting food shortages in most countries could drive civil unrest, while rising prices in developed countries will continue to stoke inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.
One of the worst-affected regions will be the Southwest United States. Here, the longest drought in at least 1,200 years has persisted for 22 years so far, reducing the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River so much that power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half. Upstream, the Glen Canyon Dam, on the rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, is forecast to stop generating power in 2023 if the drought continues. The Hoover Dam could follow suit in 2024. Together, these lakes and dams provide water and power for millions of people in seven states, including California. The breakdown of this supply would be catastrophic for agriculture, industry, and populations right across the region.
La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic, so as it begins to fade, hurricane activity can be expected to pick up. The higher global temperatures expected in 2023 could see extreme heating of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico surface waters. This would favor the formation and persistence of super-hurricanes, powering winds and storm surges capable of wiping out a major US city, should they strike land. Direct hits, rather than a glancing blow, are rare—the closest in recent decades being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which made landfall immediately south of Miami, obliterating more than 60,000 homes and damaging 125,000 more. Hurricanes today are both more powerful and wetter, so that the consequences of a city getting in the way of a superstorm in 2023 would likely be cataclysmic.
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Good news for those on the east coast if you are a fan of warmer winter weather. The atmospheric river continuing over the west coast and dumping tons of snow and rain on us, apparently keeps you guys from freezing. Pretty cool graphic found in the link. Another humble brag as the current weather pattern is setting up as ENSO neutral to El Niño, even though ocean waters are measuring cooler as a weakening El Nina. We had a similar pattern last year in the west and it fizzled out to a dry winter once El Nina strengthened. Hoping this current pattern persists and wet weather reigns! (And I get to brag about being right again)
you keep quoting articles but damn man the facts are what actually happens on the ground, who really cares about an article written by some egghead professor, if there's no hurricanes in South Florida that's all I really care about. You guys can keep your cold weather, go skiing IDGAF, I prefer warm weather, who wants snow packed up their ass, not me for sure.
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/coolid…
Six months ago, Caywood Farms in Casa Grande was dusty, dry and brown. Now it's wet, muddy and most importantly - it's green.
"Oh yes, we’re happy," laughed Nancy Caywood with Caywood Farms. "It feels great. It’s just so nice."
A massively wet monsoon has changed her tune since FOX 10 spoke with Caywood in June.
The Caywood Farm has been in the family for five generations, dating back to the 1930s. They have dealt with droughts before, but nothing like this drought, which left parched fields with no crops, and canals filled with tumbleweeds instead of water.
Now, the alfalfa is green. She's even planted oats.
The canals that lead up to her property are full again thanks to Coolidge Dam, which had dried up in June.
Ongoing drought hits Pinal County farmers hard
As Arizona's drought continues, farmers in Pinal County are facing some difficult choices. FOX 10's Brian Webb reports.
Today, the water levels are at 220,700 acre feet, the highest mark since March 2017. It's also the highest December total recorded, according to online USGS data.
"Very, very variable situation but we’re in business another year, I can guarantee you that," said Shane Lindstrom with the San Carlos Irrigation District.
Lindstrom says Wednesday's rain is important, but it's all about where it falls.
"If it falls upstream Coolidge Dam it’s beneficial, if it falls downstream…we can’t store it," he explained.
Meanwhile, Nancy Caywood says they’re now planning to plant a lot of corn in this field because of Coolidge's water levels.
"We just have to hope for more rain and lots of snow in the watershed," Caywood said.
She knows it's just for one season, but it's hard to not be optimistic.
"We have to hope for more," Caywood said. "Hope the drought is over but…just getting this rain doesn’t mean the drought is over. We have to continue."
Nancy says they were expecting to get two clippings of alfalfa this year. Instead, they got four.
However, on a typical year they would hope for eight to 10 clippings, so there's still more progress to be made.
https://apple.news/Aq2rWJa2XR-mJAXEOy10n…
15 million people are under winter weather alerts as the record-setting storm that inundated California pushes east
Updated 9:33 AM EST January 1, 2023
More than 15 million people from California to Wisconsin are under winter weather alerts Sunday as the Pacific storm system that brought record-setting rainfall and severe flooding pushes east.
Some residents in Northern California are still grappling with epic flooding and power outages after the storm system led to highway closures and water rescues Saturday.
The city of Oakland had its wettest day on record Saturday, with 4.75 inches of rain in a 24-hour period -- beating the previous record set on January 4, 1982, the National Weather Service office in San Francisco said.
The severe weather was caused by a powerful atmospheric river -- a long, narrow region in the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles, like a fire hose in the sky.
Now, as that same storm system heads east, it could dump a foot of snow across the Sierras and up to 2 feet of snow in parts of the Rockies by late Monday. Local forecasters warn travel could be difficult.
300,000 left in the dark
The severe weather, which included high winds, knocked out power to about 300,000 homes and businesses across California and Nevada as of early Sunday, according to Poweroutage.US.
The storm also forced some Northern California residents out of their homes on New Year's Eve as streets started to flood and evacuation orders and warnings were issued.
In addition to urban flooding, several rivers started overflowing -- including the Cosumnes and Mokelumne rivers and the Mormon Slough, according to the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
Despite the flooding headaches, the moisture is actually a relief for drought-stricken California -- which started 2022 with the driest beginning of the year on record and ended the year with drenched roadways and thick mountain snow.
But it's not clear how much the storm will make a dent in California's drought conditions.
'Too many road closures to count'
Officials ordered residents in Wilton -- roughly 20 miles from Sacramento -- to leave the area immediately at one point Saturday, warning that rising water may spill onto roadways and cut off access to leave the area. About two hours later, Wilton residents were told to shelter in place after water made roads "impassable."
Three communities near the city of Watsonville were also told to evacuate by the Santa Cruz County Sheriff's Office due to creek flooding, while the rising San Lorenzo River waters prompted evacuations in the communities of Paradise Park and Felton.
In San Ramon, police used an armored rescue vehicle to evacuate residents from floodwater.
"Flooding impacts continue to escalate as this rain continues with too many road closures to count at this point," the NWS said Saturday. The weather service told residents to stay put amid reports of rock and mudslides across the foothills and road closures across the Sierra passes.
Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District crews performed water rescues and responded to drivers whose vehicles became disabled after they drove through standing water Saturday, officials said.
Calling it "Stormageddon," the Amador County Sheriff's Office shared an image of cars up to their doorhandles in floodwater.
Highway 50 reopened just after midnight, hours after a section between Pollock Pines and Meyers was closed due to flooding from the American River. Another section was closed over Echo Summit for avalanche control work.
Interstate 80 was also partially closed near the Nevada line midday Saturday "due to multiple spinouts over Donner Summit," according to the California Department of Transportation.
US Highway 101 -- one of California's most famous routes -- was also temporarily closed in both directions in South San Francisco with California Highway Patrol reporting "water is not receding due to non-stop rainfall & high tides preventing the water to displace."
In the Sacramento County area, residents were advised to avoid travel as wind gusts of up to 55 mph toppled trees and covered roads with debris, according to a tweet from the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
The county proclaimed a state of emergency, saying the atmospheric river has caused "significant transportation impacts, rising creek and river levels and flooding" in the Wilton area.
Downtown San Francisco got 5.46 inches Saturday, making it the second wettest day on record for the area, according to the National Weather Service in the Bay Area.
This heavy rainfall is expected to slide southward to Southern California on Sunday, accompanied by gusty winds of 30 to 50 mph.
Sierra Nevada range sees heavy snowfall
While parts of Northern California grapple with heavy rainfall, mountainous areas are getting covered with snow.
https://apple.news/ALtVig3qqQXeDoARh_hMs…
California braces for significant flooding, 'direct threat to life and property' from next atmospheric river
The next round of heavy rain has moved into Northern California and will continue during the day on Sunday, but the FOX Forecast Center is tracking another series of atmospheric river storms that will bring several more inches of rain and damaging wind to the Golden State this week.
And in an ominous warning from the National Weather Service, people in California are being advised to stay current with weather forecasts over the next several days as there is a "direct threat to life and property" from these upcoming storms.
This comes after a deadly bomb cyclone produced flooding rain, debris flows, damaging winds and large waves in the region last week.
DEADLY BOMB CYCLONE CLOSES ITS FINAL CHAPTER AFTER RAVAGING CALIFORNIA WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING FOR DAYS
The bomb cyclone was blamed for at least two deaths in the San Francisco Bay area. One of those deaths, according to officials, was a child who was killed Wednesday night inside a home that was hit by a falling tree in the Sonoma County town of Occidental. In Fairfield, which is about 65 miles to the east, a 19-year-old woman was killed when her car hydroplaned on a partially flooded road and crashed into a utility pole.
DRAMATIC VIDEOS, PHOTOS SHOW THE FORCE OF POWERFUL BOMB CYCLONE, 'PINEAPPLE EXPRESS' THAT SLAMMED CALIFORNIA
Heavy rain and strong winds moved into northern California and southern Oregon over the weekend and will continue through the day on Sunday.
The FOX Forecast Center says the rainfall could be hazardous and will lead to some flash flooding over the coastal ranges of northern California.
Between 3-6 inches of rain is possible during the day, with some locally higher amounts. That could increase the risk of flooding in an area that has already seen copious amounts of rain since the beginning of the year.
In addition to the heavy rain, more heavy snow is also expected in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
This storm will wind down during the day on Sunday, but the next atmospheric river storm will move into the area and bring an even greater risk of flooding at the beginning of the week.
HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER
Stronger atmospheric river storm expected Sunday night, Monday
Another impactful atmospheric river storm will affect California starting late Sunday night and early Monday morning. But unlike this weekend's storm, which has been impacting northern and central areas of the Golden State, this one will affect nearly the entire state.
Heavy rain will bring a significant threat of flooding from the California-Oregon border southward into the Los Angeles Basin.
SEE SOME OF THE MOST CATASTROPHIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND FLOODING IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the flooding threat from this storm will be far more serious than that seen from the previous storm.
"Typically, California sees about five to seven good atmospheric rivers each year that contribute to our water supply," said Brooke Bingaman, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in San Francisco. "What’s different with this one that’s coming, the amount of moisture in the air that’s approaching the West Coast is at least 250-300% of what we normally see in the air as it’s approaching the West Coast."
What else is unique with this storm, Bingaman said, is the fact that California has been hit with so many of these storms.
"So, we just keep piling on these waves of rain after rain," she said. "So, that’s what’s making this storm more unique."
And because of the already saturated soils from the previous storms, streams will likely flood quickly. According to the FOX Forecast Cen
Ah, yes! A cooler and wetter spring is even forecasted ahead by the Farmer’s Almanac! Some very good news for those predicting this weather change and great for the farmers in the west relying on water sources. Who would’ve thought in just one short month we would have seen such a quick turnaround in the drought? Oh, yeah. That was me!!
Farmers’ Almanac Predicts A Wet And Cool Spring For Most Of The U.S. — Here’s Where You’ll Feel The Heat
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Right around this time of year, some people — especially when they live in northern states — begin to count down the days until spring.
While the spring equinox will occur on March 20 at 5:24 p.m. Eastern Time for the Northern Hemisphere this year, that doesn’t necessarily mean spring-like weather will arrive then.
Fortunately, the Farmers’ Almanac, which has published long-range weather forecasts since 1818, recently published its 2023 spring forecast to give readers a resource to help make plans — and also know what to expect.
“Spring has a way of keeping us on our toes,” the Farmers’ Almanac spring forecast explains.
“While many of us will be looking forward to the end of winter, spring temperatures may take their time arriving. According to our long-range outlook, temperatures will be slow to warm,” the forecast continues. “In fact, around the time of the vernal equinox, unseasonably cold temperatures may be gripping many parts of the country, extending the ‘shiver and shovel’ portion of our winter forecast. We are predicting a ‘soggy, shivery spring’ ahead.”
So, let’s get right to it. Here is the Farmers’ Almanac spring forecast for the United States.
A Cool, Wet Spring
“Overall, we see a wet and cool season for most places, with spring taking its sweet time to arrive,” according to the spring forecast.
For instance, the spring forecast for the Great Lakes area of the U.S. is “cool, very stormy,” according to the Farmers’ Almanac. Meanwhile, people in the southeastern U.S. can expect typical spring temperatures along with “tons of showers.”
Anyone who lives in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Louisiana can expect near-normal temperatures along with “plenty of thunderstorms” this spring, the Farmers’ Almanac continues.
The exceptions will be in the northwestern U.S., where near-normal temperatures should be expected in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. In fact, the overall spring forecast for this area is “seasonal temperatures and precipitation,” the Farmers’ Almanac explains.
Likewise, in the southwestern U.S., people can expect temperatures to rise quickly. The Farmers’ Almanac forecast for that area calls for “warm-to-hot continued dry” weather this spring.
A Turbulent Late Spring
As you may already expect, snow will continue to be possible in early April for much of the Great Lakes area.
Just How Accurate Are The Forecasts?
The Farmers’ Almanac has published long-range weather forecasts since 1818. The key to those forecasts is a set of astronomical and mathematical rules developed by David Young, the Almanac’s first editor.
The question, inevitably, on people’s minds, however, is this: How reliable are those long-range forecasts?
To find out, we talked to Caleb Weatherbee, the official forecaster for the Farmers’ Almanac. Interestingly, although Weatherbee is a real person, the name “Caleb Weatherbee” is “actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind our predictions,” the Farmers’ Almanac told TravelAwaits.
“Many years ago, Ray Geiger, who was editor of the Farmers’ Almanac for 60 years, was quoted as saying that we are 80 percent correct,” Weatherbee told TravelAwaits in an exclusive interview.
“That’s pretty much our ‘traditional’ batting average, although, there are variances from year to year — sometimes the accuracy is a bit lower and sometimes it’s a bit higher,” Weatherbee continued. “We always strive for 100 percent accuracy, but Ms. Nature always throws us a few curve balls, or knuckleballs, each year.”
While spring may seem to be around the corner, there’s still plenty of winter left. If you want to know what the Farmers’ Almanac winter forecast is for your area this winter, or areas you’ll be visiting, be sure to also read Farmers’ Almanac Predicts Cold, Snowy Winter For Most Of U.S., Here’s Where It Will Be Mild And Dry.
Remember my prediction of a wet winter in spite of NOAA forecasting another 3rd year in a row of La Niña dry winter? Remember 2 bits crying to me how he doesn’t care because it’s all about what is landing on the ground (see above)? Anyhoo, tye snowpack is 200% of normal in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah! Who would have thought such a thing prior to winter starting? Oh, that’s right it’s me!! Let’s hope it continues for the ski slopes to have a huge crowd for the holiday coming up, the reservoirs filling up, and my garden flourishing with fruit to bare. I told you so!!
Oh, and the hits keep on coming! More snowfall coming this week on top of a deep winter snow pack which isn’t indicative of La Niña. This type of weather pattern usually typifies El Niño. It’s hard being this right so often, because nobody appreciates it unless they has money on me being correct. This buys the southwest another two years of strong reserves to grow our agricultural needs, which is money in the bank for the farmers. I told you so!
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/dat…
I’m not sure anyone would have predicted during the fall we would be seeing this kind of snowpack built up in the Colorado river basin this winter, except one person. Me!! Kachinga, kachinga, kachinga!! Lake Powell and mead will see over 117% of normal run off into the reservoirs this spring, and that’s if it quits snowing! There still is over 5 weeks to go before peak snow season ends. It’s been a banner year for the west. Oh, I told you so!!
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/loc…
A nice article showing how the snowpack this year bucked the trend as this year’s La Niña produced El Niño like precipitation. Now who could have ever made such a bond prediction and be right? That’s correct, it’s ME!! Oh yeah! I am the greatest prognosticator on tuscl! Money in the bank, just like my call on inflation dropping like a rock since summer of ‘22. You’re welcome!
island and up the coast, too. They Dodged last years season yet are considering moving to avoid the hurricanes. Both families lives were disrupted for weeks, and they aren’t used to long periods of humidity/heat. Here, we have the heat for 3 months and then it’s perfect without the natural disasters.
Well the results are in, this winter was way wetter than normal. Who could have known that was going to happen a little over 3 months ago? I mean yiu have to be some sort of genius to forecast that accurately coming into a 3rd year of La Niña. Oh, that’s right it was me!! Anyway, media sure has a way of pushing narratives like mega drought or climate change. Those things happened more times than we can count, but this proves to be patient and turn off the main stream media, just tune into my predictions to see “I told you so!”
Nobody cares about the weather.
And the hits keep on coming on the “I told you so” front! What was supposed to be another dry La Niña winter turned out to be the highest total recorded precipitation in the Sierras. Gee, I wonder who could have been so intelligent enough to see that coming? Oh that’s right, it’s me!! Kachinga! Kachinga!
I think this speculation about my appearance is hilarious.
https://apple.news/AFN1i7mJAQMSPwz7c5UtG…
Loser retard
I’ll just leave this here. Told you so!
Kachinga, chinga, chinga! I think this winter’s record precipitation aided in these negotiations. States came up with an agreement on their own volition with $1 billion contribution from Biden. Assures through 2026, and with El Niño forming quickly there’s likely more precip in the way of next couple seasons ahead.