OT: The Stock Market ?
Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
Your thoughts/opinions:
a) we may be beginning a new bull-market – i.e. the market has done a good-job of frontrunning/discounting and taking enough air out of the bubble to where we are in the infancy of a new-bullmarket?
b) the market has discounted enough to where we may avoid a major crash but perhaps may be mostly going sideways for a while?
c) there is still “a shoe to drop” to where the market can at some point in the near-term go down 20%-50%+?
d) Other?
a) we may be beginning a new bull-market – i.e. the market has done a good-job of frontrunning/discounting and taking enough air out of the bubble to where we are in the infancy of a new-bullmarket?
b) the market has discounted enough to where we may avoid a major crash but perhaps may be mostly going sideways for a while?
c) there is still “a shoe to drop” to where the market can at some point in the near-term go down 20%-50%+?
d) Other?
91 comments
Not a huge fan of valuations right now, but I think not investing will fuck me over more than investing will so I keep buying SPY every month
Thats a joke btw!
I did this after a deep dive into all its business segments. I’m convinced this is similar to getting into Apple just before the iPhone. An explanation would take a half hour, so I won’t go into it.
There are about a dozen products and services I expect them to unveil over the next 18 months. I expect each announcement will cause the stock to pop. Their energy, artificial intelligence, robotaxi, self driving, and robotics businesses could all be trillion dollar businesses The current stock value doesn’t consider any of these businesses.
In just the first month, I’m up 10%. A good start.
I don't think I'd ever have the balls for that but if it works-out then it'd def be a game-changer w.r.t. one's net-worth.
After doing my own research, I believe she is in the right ballpark.
I guess I’ll find out.
Once Tesla figures out self driving ( likely in the next 12 months ), it’s a simply matter to configure a car to provide rides on demand without a driver. You use a $25,000 car which requires little fuel cost and no human labor to provide provide ride service for the life of the car. That might be a million dollars of revenue for each $25,000 car.
Once these are in place, the economics of ground transportation changes, especially in cities. If you can use an app to summon a car to transport you across town for $5, there is less need for everyone to own a car. Then, you no longer need parking lots. Etc.
The only thing stopping this is safe self driving software and Tesla is very close to that.
Neither could I until I analyzed Tesla. The upside potential from all these business segments is staggering. They have $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They are self funding all their growth. I just don’t see much downside.
Now, I kept enough money in cash and index funds so that I’ll be fine if Tesla goes in the crapper but I don’t think they will.
The Fed has been trying to use Monetary policy to fix a Fiscal problem caused by government spending. If we get government spending under control, the economy will get much better very quickly.
The market crash of 1987 showed that market performance doesn't have a reliable relationship to indicators of the economic situation (inflation, unemployment) that matter to people in general.
I buy mutual funds that invest in companies that have a history of paying decent dividends. I put in a little of each paycheck, and plan to take it out bit by bit in the future. So I don't need to try to time "the market". To me it seems like timing the market is mostly timing other people timing the market. Meta, but probably still dumb.
Now, if I wouldn't have spent decades squandering money on strippers, perhaps I would be in a a position to do the same as you. smh
However, most people cannot afford to take a gamble on individual stocks, at least to the extent that those sticks comprise a high % of total portfolio.
While index funds will underperform stock picking of successful stocks, few people know which will be successful long-term, at least not early enough to realize the full potential.
So, index funds provide growth without the high market risk of stock picking.
I actually have both index and individual stocks in my portfolio, but it's weighted more heavily toward indexing.
Dollar cost averaging, mentioned earlier, is an effective approach. I wish I would have been more disciplined about that years ago.
I think any disruption is more likely to the downside than the upside though. On the debt ceiling, Republicans are surprisingly organized and coherent, not to mention they know the president takes a disproportionate fall for anything. Unemployment, a lagging indicator, may catch up to the others.
That adds up to a stock picker's market. My retirement stuff is sacrosanct and stays in index funds. Sectors like tech that I don't know, I stay in ETFs. But where I do know something, I'm shopping for some smart bets.
At one point I wanted to start a stock picker's thread, but I knew that anti-stock trolls like SJG would infest and hijack it.
I always figured self driving was a pipe dream. A thousand programmers could spend a hundred years writing code and never anticipate every driving situation. AI has solved that problem.
All the other AI companies are doing things like writing papers or researching science. No other company is using AI to train machines.
That’s where robotics comes in. Other robotics companies, like Boston Dynamics, write code to tell their humanoid robots to carry out specific tasks. Only Tesla is combining AI with robotics to train machines to carry out complex tasks currently done by humans.
For example, Tesla feeds data into Dojo about how factory workers do their jobs in various situations, then trains the robots to do this.
The robots are fairly simple to make. By adding AI software, the robots become extremely valuable. They can be trained to perform any repetitive job that human workers now perform.
You might build a $10,000 robot then sell it for $200,000 after training it with AI.
It’s the unique combination of AI with humanoid robots that sets Tesla apart from everyone else.
Elon Musk described Tesla’s business as a factory builder. With robotics, they could build automated factories for every industry.
I recently read an article thst suggested you own just these 5 tech stocks.
Apple
Google
Nvifia
Microsoft
Meta
I’d add Tesla to the list. Could be risky but high potential there
But, unlike other tech start ups, Tesla can use its car business to self fund all its other initiatives.
I will play along and comment in your discussion.
“The stock market is a Ponzi scheme, stock prices are manipulated, and the game is rigged in favor of a few people and institutions winning.
Understanding these facts is probably why Henry Ford went as far to state, “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
“The stock market “game” is rigged in favor of accredited investors and institutions.
Not only are the largest institutions treated as too big to fail who get bailed out with public funds when they are about to collapse, but unlike other industries, they are also able to gain access to almost unlimited amounts of the cheapest capital from retail investors and central banks.
That is just institutions. Individuals and institutions that are classified as accredited investors are able to get into pre-IPO deals at wholesale prices.
This privileged class of investors with unconstitutional rights is eventually able to sell the same shares for often 1,000 times more than they paid to retail investors when the business goes public.”
~ Google at the following link:
https://conduitadvisors.com/stocks-are-a…
Of course, it could all come crashing down but I’m betting it won’t.
Of course CJ just looking to troll.
He’s the definition of a dumbass
This is a new business where demand has exploded. The total potential market is trillions of dollars. Tesla has a backlog in years of orders. Their profit margin on their battery systems is 40%. They are scrambling to add capacity.
1) over the last 15+ years saving has gotten u anywhere (no sort of return)
2) one kinda needs to be invested in the market if one wants to build any kinda nestegg for retirement (unless one has a business they can sell; or valuable real-estate; etc)
Given my conservative nature towards money; if there was a decent return w.r.t. savings I would have probably had a decent chunk in savings and the rest in the market; vs being entirely in the market over the last several years.
I never really bothered to become proficient at investing – I wouldn’t say I have zero-knowledge; but def far from being “very knowledgeable” about it – if I was to “classify” my level of expertise w.r.t. investing I’d first would kinda break-up “levels of investing knowledge” into several categories via an analogy to general education level – I’d coarsely classify investors’ knowledge-level as follows:
1) high-school-dropout – this is the equivalent of someone that pretty-much has no clue about finances/investing
2) high-school-graduate – equivalent of someone that has some basic knowledge of investing but pretty-rudimentary for the most-part
3) 2-year-degree – the equivalent of someone that has learned a little beyond the basics of finances/investing but not enough to talk very-intelligently about it or be able to give advice to others (friends; etc)
4) 4-year-degree – equivalent of someone that has acquired a good deal of investing knowledge – the equivalent of a very-knowledgeable retail-investor
5) Masters degree – equivalent of someone that has acquired enough knowledge to where they are qualified to work in the field of investing and qualified to advice others
6) Phd level – equivalent of the stars/legends of investing – the most knowledgeable of all
I’d put myself in level-3 of the above analogy – I may know slightly more than the avg-Joe that doesn’t have the time or desire to learn; but I def don’t have a deep-knowledge of investing to where I can spot trends etc.
I never really spent time doing deep-dives into investing b/c:
+ I can’t say learning investing was something that “turned me on” per se or found super-interesting
+ I kinda saw as futile to learn to the point of being an “expert” if just an “amateur expert” – I figured the best I could do is follow what the market was doing (kinda follow the herd)
I don't fuck with retirement funds. Automated, fixed amount per month into target date funds. I don't think social security will be around, or paying nearly what it does now, when I hang it up.
I put a little into the market every month but it isn't automated. Lately I've been more in safe/dividend stocks, but if I see a compelling individual stock, I'll draw down my savings account or move some stocks around. I have some deep sector expertise so I look for good plays there.
Most people have no business playing individual stocks. They don't know how deep the Wall Street machine runs (legally and illegally). No one outside of a professional has any business day trading.
bond valuations have reach decent levels if your interested there are plenty of CDs available now in the 5% range, you’ll find with the volatility that’s going on now, it’s easy to ladder CDs and leave a few good index funds to ride out the bears. Depending on how large your holdings are you might want to do as I’ve done and set up a few CDs in a Roth and leave the balance in the portfolio for the next generation.
I thus been out of equities since the Spring of ‘22 – I had been “nervous” about the market ever-since around the Fall of ‘21 (perhaps a little earlier) b/c it just felt equities were way-too-hot and due for at least a correction – by the Spring of ’22 I started to take some losses and I’d had enough – I took some losses b/c in ’22 I had switched most of my investments to commodities mainly after the Putin Ukraine invasion when oil and nat-gas shot-up (plus other commodities like uranium; agriculture; etc) – I “did well” but I really didn’t know what I was doing (mainly following the herd; or part of the herd) – part of what I didn’t know in early ’22 was that nat-gas was referred to as a “widow-maker” by many investors knowledgeable in commodities – I subsequently learned nat-gas can go up 6%, 7%, even 10%, in a day, but also fall by the same amount in just one trading day – needless to say for me ’22 was a wash; i.e. I lost what I had gained in my 2022 commodity-investing and by the time I got out of the market in the Spring of ’22 I was at the same place I was when I started ’22 (I guess more or less as if I hadn’t invested in 2022; could have been worse I guess) – after getting out of commodities in the Spring of ’22 I put my investment in money-market-funds (MMF) in order to ride out this quirky-market – the MMFs helped me recoup some of what I lost in the first few-months of 2022 but I’m still a bit in the red.
Two things have changed for me
1. As a combination of investment returns over the decades, and a simple lifestyle, I’ve got money I can put at risk
2. I have never seen a company with as much upside as Tesla combined with their healthy balance sheet.
For me, in my situation, going all in on Tesla is a calculated risk worth taking. If it collapses, it doesn’t affect how I live. If it appreciates the way I think it will, I’ll have what Dave Ramsey calls generational wealth. It would provide financial security to my entire family for at least 2 generations.
Prior to 2019 I was I was just in ETFs (usually a low-cost Vanguard S&P ETF or Vanguard growth (Nasdaq) ETF) – but early in 2019 I saw the FANGs just killing it and for the first time invested in individual stocks – in early 2019 I invested in Amazon; MicroSoft; FaceBook; and Google – Tesla was def in the mix but in the end opted to not invest in Tesla – again me not having any sort of deep-knowledge about investing meant I kinda went more w/ the herd and also the mighty investing strategy of “gut feeling” … LOL – i.e. I decided to invest in Amazon; MicroSoft; FaceBook; and Google; b/c I trusted the Founders of those companies – and at the time (earl-2019) I didn’t trust Elon and saw him as kinda a little too-crazy for my tastes (w/ all the children and baby-mamas he was having etc).
Obviously I did well investing in Amazon/MicroSoft/FaceBook/Google – for most of 2019 I had about 50% invested in these 4-stocks and 50% invested in ETFs – but of course I kicked myself for missing-out on Tesla an underestimating Elon Musk – when Covid came-around in 2020 I pretty-much moved everything into Amazon/MicroSoft/FaceBook/Google b/c I felt they would much-better-weather the shutdown; and they did – but I still didn’t get into Tesla and missed-the-boat on the best of the 5-individual-stocks I was mainly focusing-on.
All this word-salad was to get to the point that I told myself I wasn’t gonna miss “the next Tesla boat” – but yet here I am once more not currently invested in Tesla – I currently have much more “Tesla conviction” than I did in 2019; but part of me feels/fears there is still a “shoe to drop” in the economy and if I invested in Tesla now that it would be brought down along w/ the rest of the market if there was a severe turn in the economy as many think/predict.
So I’m kinda in b/w fear-of-a-bear-market yet to come in the nearterm taking everything down w/ it, and Tesla FOMO and once again “missing the boat”.
I’m mostly just “thinking out loud” here – not asking anyone to hold my hand per se – LOL.
(Good) Money Market Funds (MMFs) appear to be yielding close to what CDs are (maybe slightly less) – I kinda prefer to be in MMFs for liquidity-purposes and willing to give up a bit of yield compared to the best CDs – I understand the CD-ladder allows for a certain amount of liquidity-flexibility; but for now I prefer the greater/pretty-much-100% liquidity flexibility of MMFs.
The difference with Tesla is they can weather this storm with their $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They will continue building new car and battery factories, using their own money. Other car companies will close factories and may even go bankrupt because of their debt.
When we come out of the next 12 months, Tesla will be perfectly positioned to dominate the car and energy storage businesses.
Do u not think, even if Tesla is in a sound position, that it would not be brought down (stock-price) by a possible (perhaps likely) recession/market-downturn? Or is ur view ur willing to ridedown a possible market-downturn and then just ride-it-up on the next up-cycle?
If the 12 month credit crunch turns into a multi year depression, everyone will suffer. Otherwise, I think Tesla might dip a bit then come back stronger.
Over the next year, they will announce cars that are priced under $30,000 and save on high gas prices. They are well positioned for tough economic times.
I buy that they (Tesla) can be close – but my “unscientific gut feeling” is that the last 5%, or last 1%, may be the hardest to overcome in order to let self-driving-cars “loose into the world”; not counting getting the regulators on-board (and not counting that Musk may perhaps be in the crosshairs of progressive governments here and in Europe and may wanna fuck-him-over) – I also would not discount multiple-auto-makers joining-together to fight against Tesla (not to mention many of these legacy-automakers often have “deep tie$” to government and can leverage those ties to “fuck Tesla over”).
There is also the Chinese angle. I’m actually kinda surprised the CCCP has allowed Tesla so much freedom in China – part of me fears there may be a future economic-war b/w China and The West where we start banning Chinese imports (e.g. Chinese EVs; etc) and in turn China bans American EVs (e.g. Tesla).
Getting back to autonomous-driving – Elon/Tesla has a track-record of making aggressive/lofty predictions w.r.t. when products will hit the market/production; and not uncommon they miss those aggressive/lofty dates often for several-years – one can’t completely discount Musk and he actually getting to those lofty-dates but seems pretty-unlikely the 12-month-autonomous-date comes to fruition. Having said this – part of me likes Elon’s aggressive/”lofty” dates b/c it’s part of his “getting stuff done” vs “playing it safe”.
I’m def rooting for Tesla; just playing a bit of bear-case-devil’s-advocate.
I expect Tesla will offer monthly subscriptions at various levels for self driving. They’ll price it affordably to change the way people drive. Even so, it will be billions in pure profit.
As best I can tell, the current stock price reflects profit on future cars. It doesn’t include future profit from autonomous driving, battery storage, robotaxi, artificial intelligence, robotics.
The analysts don’t have a track record on any of these business areas because they are so new to Tesla. So, they just ignore them.
As these new businesses develop a track record, the future profits will be reflected in the share price.
Cathy Wood estimated what she thinks all these businesses will be doing in 2027. She came up with a share price of $2,000 based on those profits. Even she may have missed some of the revenue streams.
Large scale battery storage is a good example. Tesla has the lead in technology and production is this area and the demand is essentially unlimited in the near future. They are adding manufacturing capacity as fast as possible. The potential market is larger than the car market worldwide. But, none of this is reflected in the Tesla share price yet.
“The stock market is by definition a Ponzi scheme,”
~although I’ll Mark Cuban.
The problem is that only a few retail investors correctly distinguish the facts from Wall Street’s fiction.
The stock market is the largest and longest-running Ponzi scheme ever.”
Umm, no. Do some research. By using artificial intelligence, Tesla is very, very close to level 5 autonomous driving. Everyone else is at level 2 and struggling to get to level 3. Including Apple and Google.
As Elon Musk recently said, AI ( including self driving ) requires the very best experts, massive amounts of data, and at least a quarter billion dollars of servers. Tesla has all 3, especially billions of miles of driving data. No one else has that.
Waymo operates in very limited geographic locations with incredibly expensive sensor equipment and, even then, they’ve had a lot of issues. They get the publicity but are falling way short. It takes true AI to solve autonomous driving and they don’t have it.
Next year, Tesla will be selling a $25,000 car with level 5 autonomous driving. After ramping production, they will be selling 4 million per year.
Meanwhile, Waymo will likely surrender.
Both companies are milking one innovative idea. Eventually, the teat will go dry.
At least 80% of their revenue is enabled by iPhone.
Prove me wrong.
That’s purely stupid
The point is, since introducing the revolutionary iPhone, Apple has added services and accessories, all related to it. Nothing particularly innovative. Nothing particularly revolutionary.
Which was my point. If you want to invest in innovation, Apple and Google are not where you should look. They are huge, bureaucratic cash cows with a near monopoly as a result of earlier innovation.
Elon didn’t say what they are going to do with all that data or what service he will offer.
I guess NetFlix was a bad investment choice too? Anyway the list goes in with Apple inventions. Nowhere can I go to watch one of the best entertainment in Ted Lasso. I can’t ask Elon musk to deliver great entertainment from Jason Sudeikis (sic). The best he can do is tweet something, but of course that’s not a new innovation either, like space X or PayPal or whatever….. my guess is this is an argument more about choice rather than if it’s what a person should or should not do.
https://stocks.apple.com/AfJOGAU--QGqBxT…
Just took a quick peek at the market (10:30am ET) and nVidia (NVDA) is up 25% - in the words of Vince Lombardi ... "What the hell is going on out there"
Maybe it’s all bullshit, but I’m starting to believe it. If he is right, then the stocks that are involved with AI will outperform everything else. And, a lot of companies may not survive.
I think the NVidia stock price jump is a sign that some people are listening.
https://www.science.org/content/article/…
The same approach would work for any technical field. A human cannot keep track of every bit of research in a technical field. A computer now can. Think about the implications of that.
A computer could absorb the knowledge of engineering and architecture, then design a skyscraper with blueprints, materials list, and construction schedule. It could even manage the construction. This doesn’t exist now, but there is sufficient computing power so it could. It’s just a matter of giving AI access to the data.
There are a thousand different ways AI can be used. In each case, the first company to implement that will dominate its industry. The race is on.
Many technical analysts say there is now no barrier to reaching $300. It could happen quickly. That would be an 87% increase.
Its historic high is $400. I expect it to regain that by early next year, after attaining several production milestones. That would be a 150% increase in under a year.
Most large companies will be too slow to act. They will be devoured by their less bureaucratic, risk taking, competitors.
This transition is happening fast. Probably over the next few years.
Any investor who correctly identifies the likely winners will prosper.
I’m also now on record as saying I’m going to stay heavily invested in Tesla until 2027. If that’s a bad decision, feel free to point that out in future years.
It’s easy for any troll to claim stock success after the run up.