tuscl

OT: The Stock Market ?

Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
Monday, May 22, 2023 1:47 AM
Your thoughts/opinions: a) we may be beginning a new bull-market – i.e. the market has done a good-job of frontrunning/discounting and taking enough air out of the bubble to where we are in the infancy of a new-bullmarket? b) the market has discounted enough to where we may avoid a major crash but perhaps may be mostly going sideways for a while? c) there is still “a shoe to drop” to where the market can at some point in the near-term go down 20%-50%+? d) Other?

91 comments

  • SanchoRG
    •
    a year ago
    [view link] Not a huge fan of valuations right now, but I think not investing will fuck me over more than investing will so I keep buying SPY every month
  • dha
    •
    a year ago
    Buy short-term, government backed securities Thats a joke btw!
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    For the first time in my long life, I’ve put a significant portion of my net worth into a single stock. Tesla. I did this after a deep dive into all its business segments. I’m convinced this is similar to getting into Apple just before the iPhone. An explanation would take a half hour, so I won’t go into it. There are about a dozen products and services I expect them to unveil over the next 18 months. I expect each announcement will cause the stock to pop. Their energy, artificial intelligence, robotaxi, self driving, and robotics businesses could all be trillion dollar businesses The current stock value doesn’t consider any of these businesses. In just the first month, I’m up 10%. A good start.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    "... For the first time in my long life, I’ve put a significant portion of my net worth into a single stock. Tesla ..." I don't think I'd ever have the balls for that but if it works-out then it'd def be a game-changer w.r.t. one's net-worth.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Cathy Wood at Ark Investment predicts Tesla stock will be $2,000 by 2027. It’s currently $180 ( $160 a month ago ). After doing my own research, I believe she is in the right ballpark. I guess I’ll find out.
  • funonthaside
    •
    a year ago
    The Tssla prediction may very well come true. I just can't stomach putting more than 15% or so in a single stock.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    A big part of Tesla’s value will come from Robotaxis. Once Tesla figures out self driving ( likely in the next 12 months ), it’s a simply matter to configure a car to provide rides on demand without a driver. You use a $25,000 car which requires little fuel cost and no human labor to provide provide ride service for the life of the car. That might be a million dollars of revenue for each $25,000 car. Once these are in place, the economics of ground transportation changes, especially in cities. If you can use an app to summon a car to transport you across town for $5, there is less need for everyone to own a car. Then, you no longer need parking lots. Etc. The only thing stopping this is safe self driving software and Tesla is very close to that.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    “ I just can't stomach putting more than 15% or so in a single stock.” Neither could I until I analyzed Tesla. The upside potential from all these business segments is staggering. They have $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They are self funding all their growth. I just don’t see much downside. Now, I kept enough money in cash and index funds so that I’ll be fine if Tesla goes in the crapper but I don’t think they will.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    In answer to the original question, I think it all depends on whether Biden agrees to a budget deal that accepts a lot of what House Republicans have passed. The Fed has been trying to use Monetary policy to fix a Fiscal problem caused by government spending. If we get government spending under control, the economy will get much better very quickly.
  • ilbbaicnl
    •
    a year ago
    So there are various indexes that have some claim to represent "The Market". And corresponding index mutual funds. If you own shares in one of these funds, I guess that would be a reason to care what's going to happen to the index. Index funds scare me. What stops people from starting public companies with totally stupid business plans, but which qualify for inclusion in the index? That is, qualify to get some of you money if you own shares in the index fund. The market crash of 1987 showed that market performance doesn't have a reliable relationship to indicators of the economic situation (inflation, unemployment) that matter to people in general. I buy mutual funds that invest in companies that have a history of paying decent dividends. I put in a little of each paycheck, and plan to take it out bit by bit in the future. So I don't need to try to time "the market". To me it seems like timing the market is mostly timing other people timing the market. Meta, but probably still dumb.
  • funonthaside
    •
    a year ago
    Mark, my intention was to also state "unless I had so much money that I can afford to invest a much higher % than 15%, while still having enough to live a comfortable lifestyle even if the stock tanks". Now, if I wouldn't have spent decades squandering money on strippers, perhaps I would be in a a position to do the same as you. smh
  • funonthaside
    •
    a year ago
    If you choose a superstar stock such as Apple or Tesla early on, you will be better off buying individual stocks rather than index funds. However, most people cannot afford to take a gamble on individual stocks, at least to the extent that those sticks comprise a high % of total portfolio. While index funds will underperform stock picking of successful stocks, few people know which will be successful long-term, at least not early enough to realize the full potential. So, index funds provide growth without the high market risk of stock picking. I actually have both index and individual stocks in my portfolio, but it's weighted more heavily toward indexing. Dollar cost averaging, mentioned earlier, is an effective approach. I wish I would have been more disciplined about that years ago.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    Just note Tesla is not the leader in robotics or AI, I hold enough Tesla to make a nice profit if it goes to $2000. but in my opinion that’s a ways out. Any person investing the bulk of their savings in any single stock is not usually going to have the outcome they’re expecting , it’s a seriously flawed strategy. But you go ahead and do you, but recognize that you aren’t investing, you are gambling
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    I’ve been a steady index fund investor all my life, except when I made a big bet on Apple, made some money, and sold much too soon. This time, I plan to stay invested in Tesla a few years and see what happens.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ good luck with that.
  • Tetradon
    •
    a year ago
    With respect to OPs question, I say B. Interest rate movements have to walk the knife edge of recession and bank failures (though any chief risk officer who can't hedge interest rate risks need to be tarred and feathered) and inflation. I think that defaults to inertia. We don't have a wave of innovation set to create another tech bubble. Government spending is going to be constrained by debt service payments. I think any disruption is more likely to the downside than the upside though. On the debt ceiling, Republicans are surprisingly organized and coherent, not to mention they know the president takes a disproportionate fall for anything. Unemployment, a lagging indicator, may catch up to the others. That adds up to a stock picker's market. My retirement stuff is sacrosanct and stays in index funds. Sectors like tech that I don't know, I stay in ETFs. But where I do know something, I'm shopping for some smart bets. At one point I wanted to start a stock picker's thread, but I knew that anti-stock trolls like SJG would infest and hijack it.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Tesla is using its AI, called Dojo, to train machines ( in this case cars ) to emulate human activity. They have millions of miles of video and other data about driving which they’ve fed into Dojo. Then, using AI, Dojo has figured out how best to drive in every situation. Then, it teaches the car how to do this. I always figured self driving was a pipe dream. A thousand programmers could spend a hundred years writing code and never anticipate every driving situation. AI has solved that problem. All the other AI companies are doing things like writing papers or researching science. No other company is using AI to train machines. That’s where robotics comes in. Other robotics companies, like Boston Dynamics, write code to tell their humanoid robots to carry out specific tasks. Only Tesla is combining AI with robotics to train machines to carry out complex tasks currently done by humans. For example, Tesla feeds data into Dojo about how factory workers do their jobs in various situations, then trains the robots to do this. The robots are fairly simple to make. By adding AI software, the robots become extremely valuable. They can be trained to perform any repetitive job that human workers now perform. You might build a $10,000 robot then sell it for $200,000 after training it with AI. It’s the unique combination of AI with humanoid robots that sets Tesla apart from everyone else. Elon Musk described Tesla’s business as a factory builder. With robotics, they could build automated factories for every industry.
  • motorhead
    •
    a year ago
    I’ve always been a mutual funds investor with a mix of index and growth funds but have recently added sector ETF’s and individual stocks. I’ve gotten pretty lucky with that approach. I didn’t buy the Vanguard Energy ETF at the bottom during COVID but still caught it on the way back up. I recently read an article thst suggested you own just these 5 tech stocks. Apple Google Nvifia Microsoft Meta I’d add Tesla to the list. Could be risky but high potential there
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The difference between those 5 stocks, and Tesla, is that Tesla is still in its infancy in most of its business segments. Tesla is innovating, and taking chances, in ways that more established tech companies no longer do. But, unlike other tech start ups, Tesla can use its car business to self fund all its other initiatives.
  • CJKent_band
    •
    a year ago
    @Papi_Chulo I will play along and comment in your discussion. “The stock market is a Ponzi scheme, stock prices are manipulated, and the game is rigged in favor of a few people and institutions winning. Understanding these facts is probably why Henry Ford went as far to state, “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” “The stock market “game” is rigged in favor of accredited investors and institutions. Not only are the largest institutions treated as too big to fail who get bailed out with public funds when they are about to collapse, but unlike other industries, they are also able to gain access to almost unlimited amounts of the cheapest capital from retail investors and central banks. That is just institutions. Individuals and institutions that are classified as accredited investors are able to get into pre-IPO deals at wholesale prices. This privileged class of investors with unconstitutional rights is eventually able to sell the same shares for often 1,000 times more than they paid to retail investors when the business goes public.” ~ Google at the following link: [view link]
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    At the moment, Tesla stock is up 3% on the day. It’s up nearly 20% in the last 30 days, when I went all in on Tesla. The trend is your friend. Of course, it could all come crashing down but I’m betting it won’t.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ Proof of the old adage “When you know nothing say nothing, by opening you mouth you make every one aware of your own ignorance “
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^Sorry mark that was directed to CJKunt, you just ninja’d in
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    Hey CJ why don’t you shut the fuck up and learn something, you don’t even know what an accredited investor is.
  • Tetradon
    •
    a year ago
    @25, "accredited investor" doesn't mean much. 200k a year salary or 1m in assets. (Numbers could be slightly different). Of course CJ just looking to troll.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^He’s lumping accredited investors in with institutional investors He’s the definition of a dumbass
  • Tetradon
    •
    a year ago
    ^ He'd make a worthy addition to SJG and Icee on the "gone" list.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Another business segment in its infancy where Tesla is the leader is large scale energy storage. These are huge batteries that are sold to utilities and large companies. They store energy when the grid has excess capacity ( early morning ) and release it when demand peaks. They can also be used as backup power. Or, they can be integrated with wind and solar farms. This is a new business where demand has exploded. The total potential market is trillions of dollars. Tesla has a backlog in years of orders. Their profit margin on their battery systems is 40%. They are scrambling to add capacity.
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    Who cares what the market is doing today, all I care about is where it is going to be in 10-20 years. Dollar costing as I go….. the bigger the drop, means the higher the bounce!
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    And, as best I can tell, none of the value from this energy business is included in Tesla stock value. It just hasn’t gotten on the radar of the stock analysts, who view Tesla as a car company.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    I’ve always been a saver; not so much an investor necessarily – I invest in the market b/c: 1) over the last 15+ years saving has gotten u anywhere (no sort of return) 2) one kinda needs to be invested in the market if one wants to build any kinda nestegg for retirement (unless one has a business they can sell; or valuable real-estate; etc) Given my conservative nature towards money; if there was a decent return w.r.t. savings I would have probably had a decent chunk in savings and the rest in the market; vs being entirely in the market over the last several years. I never really bothered to become proficient at investing – I wouldn’t say I have zero-knowledge; but def far from being “very knowledgeable” about it – if I was to “classify” my level of expertise w.r.t. investing I’d first would kinda break-up “levels of investing knowledge” into several categories via an analogy to general education level – I’d coarsely classify investors’ knowledge-level as follows: 1) high-school-dropout – this is the equivalent of someone that pretty-much has no clue about finances/investing 2) high-school-graduate – equivalent of someone that has some basic knowledge of investing but pretty-rudimentary for the most-part 3) 2-year-degree – the equivalent of someone that has learned a little beyond the basics of finances/investing but not enough to talk very-intelligently about it or be able to give advice to others (friends; etc) 4) 4-year-degree – equivalent of someone that has acquired a good deal of investing knowledge – the equivalent of a very-knowledgeable retail-investor 5) Masters degree – equivalent of someone that has acquired enough knowledge to where they are qualified to work in the field of investing and qualified to advice others 6) Phd level – equivalent of the stars/legends of investing – the most knowledgeable of all I’d put myself in level-3 of the above analogy – I may know slightly more than the avg-Joe that doesn’t have the time or desire to learn; but I def don’t have a deep-knowledge of investing to where I can spot trends etc. I never really spent time doing deep-dives into investing b/c: + I can’t say learning investing was something that “turned me on” per se or found super-interesting + I kinda saw as futile to learn to the point of being an “expert” if just an “amateur expert” – I figured the best I could do is follow what the market was doing (kinda follow the herd)
  • Muddy
    •
    a year ago
    @Mark94 you convinced me to get some Tesla stock. I'm mostly just in mutual funds.
  • Tetradon
    •
    a year ago
    @Papi, I'm a 4.5. I was an investment professional once, but it's been some time and I'm sure the game has changed since then. I don't fuck with retirement funds. Automated, fixed amount per month into target date funds. I don't think social security will be around, or paying nearly what it does now, when I hang it up. I put a little into the market every month but it isn't automated. Lately I've been more in safe/dividend stocks, but if I see a compelling individual stock, I'll draw down my savings account or move some stocks around. I have some deep sector expertise so I look for good plays there. Most people have no business playing individual stocks. They don't know how deep the Wall Street machine runs (legally and illegally). No one outside of a professional has any business day trading.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    @ Papi bond valuations have reach decent levels if your interested there are plenty of CDs available now in the 5% range, you’ll find with the volatility that’s going on now, it’s easy to ladder CDs and leave a few good index funds to ride out the bears. Depending on how large your holdings are you might want to do as I’ve done and set up a few CDs in a Roth and leave the balance in the portfolio for the next generation.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    Given my above description of me being wired more as a saver vs an investor, and thus being pretty-conservative about money; and not being well-versed in investing; means I’m pretty-opposed to taking risks in part b/c I’m financially conservative, and probably more-so b/c I don’t trust that I know enough about what I’m doing. I thus been out of equities since the Spring of ‘22 – I had been “nervous” about the market ever-since around the Fall of ‘21 (perhaps a little earlier) b/c it just felt equities were way-too-hot and due for at least a correction – by the Spring of ’22 I started to take some losses and I’d had enough – I took some losses b/c in ’22 I had switched most of my investments to commodities mainly after the Putin Ukraine invasion when oil and nat-gas shot-up (plus other commodities like uranium; agriculture; etc) – I “did well” but I really didn’t know what I was doing (mainly following the herd; or part of the herd) – part of what I didn’t know in early ’22 was that nat-gas was referred to as a “widow-maker” by many investors knowledgeable in commodities – I subsequently learned nat-gas can go up 6%, 7%, even 10%, in a day, but also fall by the same amount in just one trading day – needless to say for me ’22 was a wash; i.e. I lost what I had gained in my 2022 commodity-investing and by the time I got out of the market in the Spring of ’22 I was at the same place I was when I started ’22 (I guess more or less as if I hadn’t invested in 2022; could have been worse I guess) – after getting out of commodities in the Spring of ’22 I put my investment in money-market-funds (MMF) in order to ride out this quirky-market – the MMFs helped me recoup some of what I lost in the first few-months of 2022 but I’m still a bit in the red.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ that’s why I suggested you ladder a bunch of CDs, set them up for no longer than 18 months apart with a few longer to allow for interest rates to rise and maximize your profits, in a Roth so the proceeds are tax free, which will help you grow your savings reasonably safely with little risk or volatility.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    For 99% of the public, the best strategy is to consistently put money into the S&P 500 index fund ( or the Total Stock Market index ) and not take it out until retirement. That’s what I did. Two things have changed for me 1. As a combination of investment returns over the decades, and a simple lifestyle, I’ve got money I can put at risk 2. I have never seen a company with as much upside as Tesla combined with their healthy balance sheet. For me, in my situation, going all in on Tesla is a calculated risk worth taking. If it collapses, it doesn’t affect how I live. If it appreciates the way I think it will, I’ll have what Dave Ramsey calls generational wealth. It would provide financial security to my entire family for at least 2 generations.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    Given this quirky market – plus memories of 2008 and the 50%-loss – plus the current “shaky economy” for lack of a better word; has me pretty-gun-shy about “playing the market” – but after being out-of-market for about a year now (mostly in MMFs), a bit of FOMO has started to creep-in particularly w.r.t. Tesla b/c I came supa-close to investing in Tesla in 2019 b/f it took-off; but didn’t. Prior to 2019 I was I was just in ETFs (usually a low-cost Vanguard S&P ETF or Vanguard growth (Nasdaq) ETF) – but early in 2019 I saw the FANGs just killing it and for the first time invested in individual stocks – in early 2019 I invested in Amazon; MicroSoft; FaceBook; and Google – Tesla was def in the mix but in the end opted to not invest in Tesla – again me not having any sort of deep-knowledge about investing meant I kinda went more w/ the herd and also the mighty investing strategy of “gut feeling” … LOL – i.e. I decided to invest in Amazon; MicroSoft; FaceBook; and Google; b/c I trusted the Founders of those companies – and at the time (earl-2019) I didn’t trust Elon and saw him as kinda a little too-crazy for my tastes (w/ all the children and baby-mamas he was having etc). Obviously I did well investing in Amazon/MicroSoft/FaceBook/Google – for most of 2019 I had about 50% invested in these 4-stocks and 50% invested in ETFs – but of course I kicked myself for missing-out on Tesla an underestimating Elon Musk – when Covid came-around in 2020 I pretty-much moved everything into Amazon/MicroSoft/FaceBook/Google b/c I felt they would much-better-weather the shutdown; and they did – but I still didn’t get into Tesla and missed-the-boat on the best of the 5-individual-stocks I was mainly focusing-on. All this word-salad was to get to the point that I told myself I wasn’t gonna miss “the next Tesla boat” – but yet here I am once more not currently invested in Tesla – I currently have much more “Tesla conviction” than I did in 2019; but part of me feels/fears there is still a “shoe to drop” in the economy and if I invested in Tesla now that it would be brought down along w/ the rest of the market if there was a severe turn in the economy as many think/predict. So I’m kinda in b/w fear-of-a-bear-market yet to come in the nearterm taking everything down w/ it, and Tesla FOMO and once again “missing the boat”. I’m mostly just “thinking out loud” here – not asking anyone to hold my hand per se – LOL.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    @25 (Good) Money Market Funds (MMFs) appear to be yielding close to what CDs are (maybe slightly less) – I kinda prefer to be in MMFs for liquidity-purposes and willing to give up a bit of yield compared to the best CDs – I understand the CD-ladder allows for a certain amount of liquidity-flexibility; but for now I prefer the greater/pretty-much-100% liquidity flexibility of MMFs.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The shoe that is dropping is the credit market is drying up. As Elon said, the next 12 months are going to be tough. The difference with Tesla is they can weather this storm with their $20 Billion in cash and no debt. They will continue building new car and battery factories, using their own money. Other car companies will close factories and may even go bankrupt because of their debt. When we come out of the next 12 months, Tesla will be perfectly positioned to dominate the car and energy storage businesses.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    I’m not gonna fault your reasoning, I’ll give you a little advice that my dad gave to me many years ago, when I took a beating on some stock that didn’t work out. He told me two things, first and foremost it’s only money, and not to worry about it, just keep on doing what I’d been doing. The second thing was something I figured out for myself, until you buy or sell you haven’t made or lost anything, it’s all paper til it’s sold, then you’ll know if you made a few or lost a bit
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    @Mark, Do u not think, even if Tesla is in a sound position, that it would not be brought down (stock-price) by a possible (perhaps likely) recession/market-downturn? Or is ur view ur willing to ridedown a possible market-downturn and then just ride-it-up on the next up-cycle?
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    It will be a head wind for Tesla but there is also lots of good news pushing it forward. If the 12 month credit crunch turns into a multi year depression, everyone will suffer. Otherwise, I think Tesla might dip a bit then come back stronger. Over the next year, they will announce cars that are priced under $30,000 and save on high gas prices. They are well positioned for tough economic times.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    It appears that a lot of the “to the moon” Tesla future-valuations are based on autonomous-driving coming-true. I buy that they (Tesla) can be close – but my “unscientific gut feeling” is that the last 5%, or last 1%, may be the hardest to overcome in order to let self-driving-cars “loose into the world”; not counting getting the regulators on-board (and not counting that Musk may perhaps be in the crosshairs of progressive governments here and in Europe and may wanna fuck-him-over) – I also would not discount multiple-auto-makers joining-together to fight against Tesla (not to mention many of these legacy-automakers often have “deep tie$” to government and can leverage those ties to “fuck Tesla over”). There is also the Chinese angle. I’m actually kinda surprised the CCCP has allowed Tesla so much freedom in China – part of me fears there may be a future economic-war b/w China and The West where we start banning Chinese imports (e.g. Chinese EVs; etc) and in turn China bans American EVs (e.g. Tesla). Getting back to autonomous-driving – Elon/Tesla has a track-record of making aggressive/lofty predictions w.r.t. when products will hit the market/production; and not uncommon they miss those aggressive/lofty dates often for several-years – one can’t completely discount Musk and he actually getting to those lofty-dates but seems pretty-unlikely the 12-month-autonomous-date comes to fruition. Having said this – part of me likes Elon’s aggressive/”lofty” dates b/c it’s part of his “getting stuff done” vs “playing it safe”. I’m def rooting for Tesla; just playing a bit of bear-case-devil’s-advocate.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    There are lots of videos on YouTube showing the current state of autonomous driving. They are close. But, yes, I think you have to drive the last 50 yards on your own. I expect Tesla will offer monthly subscriptions at various levels for self driving. They’ll price it affordably to change the way people drive. Even so, it will be billions in pure profit.
  • From978
    •
    a year ago
    The upside to Tesla is easy to see: with an advertising budget of zero, their biggest problem is that they can't make cars as fast as people want to buy them. The downside is that 50 million people already know that, and they've bid the stock price up enough to reflect that. What we know now is approximately what we knew a year ago. Today's price is 16% lower than May 2022.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Analysts plug their best guess on future revenue and profit into a spreadsheet and discount the cash flow back to current price. As best I can tell, the current stock price reflects profit on future cars. It doesn’t include future profit from autonomous driving, battery storage, robotaxi, artificial intelligence, robotics. The analysts don’t have a track record on any of these business areas because they are so new to Tesla. So, they just ignore them. As these new businesses develop a track record, the future profits will be reflected in the share price. Cathy Wood estimated what she thinks all these businesses will be doing in 2027. She came up with a share price of $2,000 based on those profits. Even she may have missed some of the revenue streams. Large scale battery storage is a good example. Tesla has the lead in technology and production is this area and the demand is essentially unlimited in the near future. They are adding manufacturing capacity as fast as possible. The potential market is larger than the car market worldwide. But, none of this is reflected in the Tesla share price yet.
  • CJKent_band
    •
    a year ago
    UNDENIABLE “The stock market is by definition a Ponzi scheme,” ~although I’ll Mark Cuban. The problem is that only a few retail investors correctly distinguish the facts from Wall Street’s fiction. The stock market is the largest and longest-running Ponzi scheme ever.”
  • Tetradon
    •
    a year ago
    ^ #bait
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    Wouldn’t a safer bet to buy Apple or Google, since they’re the ones developing auto driving software? Everything people buy in the future will need a subscription, so the low maintenance high profit margin of subscription services will bid well. Apple is having a downtime lately, but I suspect their future is bright due to the volume of subscription services they provide. Tesla, it’s good, but diversify into apple and google IMO.
  • SanchoRG
    •
    a year ago
    That's why I love SPY. It's all mostly FAGMAN anyhow. Er wait I guess MAGMAN. Dumb index funds still outperform 90% of actively managed funds, with far lower fees. I do set aside 5-10% for individual stock picks, but I am terrible at picking winners.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    “Wouldn’t a safer bet to buy Apple or Google, since they’re the ones developing auto driving software? “ Umm, no. Do some research. By using artificial intelligence, Tesla is very, very close to level 5 autonomous driving. Everyone else is at level 2 and struggling to get to level 3. Including Apple and Google. As Elon Musk recently said, AI ( including self driving ) requires the very best experts, massive amounts of data, and at least a quarter billion dollars of servers. Tesla has all 3, especially billions of miles of driving data. No one else has that. Waymo operates in very limited geographic locations with incredibly expensive sensor equipment and, even then, they’ve had a lot of issues. They get the publicity but are falling way short. It takes true AI to solve autonomous driving and they don’t have it. Next year, Tesla will be selling a $25,000 car with level 5 autonomous driving. After ramping production, they will be selling 4 million per year. Meanwhile, Waymo will likely surrender.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The last successful innovation Apple had was the iPhone. The only successful innovation Google ever had was search, and AI will make that obsolete. Both companies are milking one innovative idea. Eventually, the teat will go dry.
  • docsavage
    •
    a year ago
    Federal tax revenues were 26% lower in April 2023 than in April 2022. Dropping tax revenues is an indicator of a coming recession. The stock market has traditionally not done well in a recession. Most Americans are not aware of the looming economic crisis and government fiscal crisis. The mainstream media doesn't want to report on it because it tilts left and reporting on it might make Biden look bad.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    At this point, post CoVid, post supply chain issue, it’s mostly about government spending. If the negotiations between Biden andMcCarthy get spending better under control, the recession will be short and mild. Otherwise, it’ll get really ugly.
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    The Mac, IPod, android, banking, App Store, several subscription services plus hundreds of sub corporate services not to mention many other revenue streams seem to be a lot more diversified than one single car company. I think the teat that’s Tesla has a much stronger chance of drying out if their leader decides to get too autistic and smoke a bunch of weed in front of his mass of followers on a conference call, or go fly off his rocker. It’s all about risk, and when rolling the dice on one pick is great IF it works out, as long as you are comfortable taking that risk that could isolate you. Keep in mind a lot of mutual funds have a 5-7% stake in Tesla(maybe less), so by my calculations I already own $50k-$60k in that stock.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    Loading up on a single stock isn’t investing, it’s gambling
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Everything you mention is associated with the iPhone. Without the iPhone, none of these would have value.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ Really you are saying nothing Apple sells has any value without the IPhone, that's a really stupid statement, even more so since it's being made by a guy who try's to impress everyone, with his autistic intelligence.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The iPhone is the hub necessary for the vast majority of Apple revenue. Apps. Accessories. Services, including Music. At least 80% of their revenue is enabled by iPhone. Prove me wrong.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ why would I waste my time or energy
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    Your statement was none of these would have value. That’s purely stupid
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    Their music catalogue alone is probably as valuable as any of their other businesses and could be spun off for billions.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Their music catalog generates revenue because people pay to listen to it on their, wait for it, iPhone. Plus, the music catalog existed before the iPhone ( remember iPods ? ). The point is, since introducing the revolutionary iPhone, Apple has added services and accessories, all related to it. Nothing particularly innovative. Nothing particularly revolutionary. Which was my point. If you want to invest in innovation, Apple and Google are not where you should look. They are huge, bureaucratic cash cows with a near monopoly as a result of earlier innovation.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    In yesterday’s WSJ interview, Elon confirmed he has formed anArtificial Intelligence initiative within his privately owned X Corp ( Twitter ). It will draw on the Dojo AI system at Tesla and use data from Twitter. He already has staff and the super computer in place. It will be the third major AI player ( including Google and Microsoft ). Elon didn’t say what they are going to do with all that data or what service he will offer.
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    Apple TV etc etc etc …. I guess NetFlix was a bad investment choice too? Anyway the list goes in with Apple inventions. Nowhere can I go to watch one of the best entertainment in Ted Lasso. I can’t ask Elon musk to deliver great entertainment from Jason Sudeikis (sic). The best he can do is tweet something, but of course that’s not a new innovation either, like space X or PayPal or whatever….. my guess is this is an argument more about choice rather than if it’s what a person should or should not do.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ look if you want to be an Elon Musk fanboy we have no beef, but if you insist on being a Tesla Tout I’m going to call you on it every time, there’s plenty of innovation coming from all of the above and others that you haven’t even heard of. Don’t be advocating for stupid things, people who don’t know what they’re doing in the market shouldn’t be blindly trusting anybody who copies shit off the day trading boards and reposts them here on a titty bar website.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates Apple generates between $1 billion and $2 billion per year in Apple TV+ subscription revenue, but it's spending $3 billion per year on content.
  • twentyfive
    •
    a year ago
    ^ I quit Bernstein back in 2007 because the were not transparent, they’re still operating the same way.
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    ^^ I was told to never trust anybody whose last name ends with a vowel(Sacconaghi).
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Like Obama and Pelosi ?
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    ^ yo momma?
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    Innovation from Apple? Yes, always… [view link]
  • skibum609
    •
    a year ago
    The more people talk about their money and their investing beliefs the more likely it is that they have no money and do not invest at all.
  • Papi_Chulo
    •
    a year ago
    WTF! Just took a quick peek at the market (10:30am ET) and nVidia (NVDA) is up 25% - in the words of Vince Lombardi ... "What the hell is going on out there"
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The magic words this week/month are “ artificial intelligence”. If you can get your company associated with those words, the stock will pop.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The interview Elon had with the WSJ a couple days ago was both informative and entertaining. He firmly believes that AI will change our world dramatically and it will be noticeable in 5 years, not 50. Maybe it’s all bullshit, but I’m starting to believe it. If he is right, then the stocks that are involved with AI will outperform everything else. And, a lot of companies may not survive. I think the NVidia stock price jump is a sign that some people are listening.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    This is the article from 2021 that first opened my eyes to what artificial intelligence could do. In fact, is already doing. Breakthroughs in science and medicine that were unimaginable a few years ago. Companies that don’t embrace this will be left in the dust. [view link]
  • ilbbaicnl
    •
    a year ago
    Never know. Probably Nvidia has a promising new product. They bank indirectly on Bitcoin, because their vector processor boards can be used for proof-of-work calculations. Or, pump and dump.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    AI can absorb all the research from a scientific field then use it. For example, it can already be used for cancer diagnosis and treatment, identifying what treatment is best in each individual case. The same approach would work for any technical field. A human cannot keep track of every bit of research in a technical field. A computer now can. Think about the implications of that. A computer could absorb the knowledge of engineering and architecture, then design a skyscraper with blueprints, materials list, and construction schedule. It could even manage the construction. This doesn’t exist now, but there is sufficient computing power so it could. It’s just a matter of giving AI access to the data. There are a thousand different ways AI can be used. In each case, the first company to implement that will dominate its industry. The race is on.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Quick Tesla update. It’s opening this morning at $250. Six weeks ago, it was $160. Thats when I went all in on Tesla. That’s a 56% increase. Many technical analysts say there is now no barrier to reaching $300. It could happen quickly. That would be an 87% increase. Its historic high is $400. I expect it to regain that by early next year, after attaining several production milestones. That would be a 150% increase in under a year.
  • skibum609
    •
    a year ago
    I read this thread and wonder if someone went back to June 1929 and copied what was written by all the rich people back then.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    The problem in 1929 is most of the people, rich and poor, were buying stock on margin. A small drop in the stock price could wipe them out. Once the market started to correct, it whipsawed into a collapse.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Artificial intelligence will change everything about how our economy works. The winners will be companies that provide AI hardware, software, and the necessary data. Plus, nimble companies that embrace the use of AI to improve their performance. Most large companies will be too slow to act. They will be devoured by their less bureaucratic, risk taking, competitors. This transition is happening fast. Probably over the next few years. Any investor who correctly identifies the likely winners will prosper.
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    Yawn…..,
  • Mate27
    •
    a year ago
    OMG, my Apple stock has gone from $120 at the beginning of this year to over $180/share. That’s over 50% rate of return in 6 months time!! Plus they gave me some dividends along the way….
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    I’m on record, above, as buying Tesla, tons of it, before the recent run up. I explained why, in detail. I’m also now on record as saying I’m going to stay heavily invested in Tesla until 2027. If that’s a bad decision, feel free to point that out in future years. It’s easy for any troll to claim stock success after the run up.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    Out of the S&P 500, I think 10 or 20 will do incredibly well over the next 5 years. Maybe 300 will do okay. The rest will be crushed by nimble competitors innovating with AI.
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    And, some trivia. In the last 10 days, Tesla’s market cap has increased more than the total value of Ford and GM combined.
  • minnow
    •
    a year ago
    OT- I wonder how well AI could predict the weather, and how far ahead it could do so. In recent hurricane landfall predictions, I see ~ a dozen different predicted path, will AI pick the correct path ? If I want to take vacation to Miami this Dec., will AI pick the exact weeks it will be warm and sunny, vs cold and rainy ? (One of my sisters went there several winters ago for a week, it was cold and rainy most of the week. In another case one of my co-workers went to Miami in Jan. 1977, and saw snow there! 1977 was a record cold winter.)
  • mark94
    •
    a year ago
    For AI to work, it requires massive amounts of data. There is certainly a lot of historical weather data available. I’ll bet AI could spot patterns that humans can’t.
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