OT: Electric Vehicles – thoughts?

Still too pricey/not enough charging infrastructure yet to think about. It's amazing how quiet those things are though.

Smart cars = dumb drivers. I prefer to be in control of the wheel and these electric cars all tend to put the driver in the passenger seat. No thanks. Gas cars til I die.

I"m about to buy my wife a new vehicle. We have decided to do a hybrid. Kinda go half way. I have had friends that have tried to drive across country in an EV and it's' a pain to have to plan out your route for charging.

Until electric charging stations are as readily accessible as gas stations, and I can charge as quickly as I can fill a gas tank, EVs are a no-go for me.

At this stage, hell no from me. My thoughts mirror f-side and MR.

If you think your lifestyle is a good match for an EV it's fine - your choice. In retirement communities golf carts are common (and a royal PITA for cars). My problem is with govt treating us like a goose being prepped for liver pate. These are not for all. Look at Florida during Hurricane Season, CA in Fire Season, Tornado Alley Season, a good old Nor'easter (batteries and cold bad mojo) or a Minnesota or Alaskan winter. If you decide to load up the family Truckster for a trip to Wallyworld, well, you get the idea. Now hybrids are interesting, however, the batteries are Made In CCPland and these batteries have proven to quite flammable - the unintended consequences of forcing "good ideas" produced by brain farts. The EV/"Climate Change" grift is just a power/control grab. For some, er a few, the EV can be practical. Just don't bury the dead batteries in my "backyard". If EVs are all that critical to "planetary survival", why not a few hundred Gen 4 nuke plants to replace solar that lines China's CCP pockets and windmills that are whacking birds? Nah, that makes too much sense - at least it would bridge use to fusion nuclear 30-40 years down the road.

I like the idea, but they're not practical if you are driving in the west outside of the big cities. There's just too much nothing and too many non-ev loving rednecks out here to get the coverage you'd need to be comfortable on long drives. I hate Teslas but that's probably bc I hate the wanker tech guys that I have to work with who all seem to drive the ugly pieces of shit. They also drive like... I don't know... they're fucking fiddling around with a silly computer instead of driving? Just a guess.

Now hybrids are another story. Very good gas mileage, make use of braking and hills to charge the battery, super quiet, etc. My wife drives a Prius, and it's a little too small for my comfort, but I bet there are some bigger options out there. But it's not the fully monty ev-wise.

There’s upside and downside to EVs. Yes, there will be some specific use cases that they are advantageous. Ultimately the issue isn’t EVs, the issue is a small group of extremely powerful people/groups whose raison detre is what’s best for expansion of their power. The latest one is forced mass acceptance of EVs (their big thanks goes out to the hundreds of millions of ‘for the latest thing’ people). But be 100% certain of this, this is an experiment, period. What the ramifications are, good or bad, is unknown. And if you think these powerful people/groups haven’t forced change before only to quietly forget it (because it was flustercluck and ended up nit being advantageous to them), no offense to you but you just aren’t paying attention. Anytime you see these kinds of forced changes, not simple market changes, just follow the power/money trail. 99% of the time that will answer the real reason behind the change.

Change is inevitable, and the folks who adapt to change easily usually profit well, most end up going along because it's easier, and the third group, those folks who go kicking and screaming against change generally end up by the wayside wondering what happened and miss out on the benefits.

I’ve done a complete 180 on this. I plan to buy a Tesla Model Y. I’ve also purchased a substantial amount of Tesla stock and I’m going to buy more.

First, Tesla has a 5 year lead on every other non-Chinese EV manufacturer, in terms of technology, design, and manufacturing. Their charging stations are fast and convenient national wide. Their online purchase process is simple and vastly better than the typical dealer process. The only EV I would consider is a Tesla.

Teslas are quiet, fast, and fun to drive. Because they are software based, they have features not available in any other car. The only downside is their higher purchase price though, if you factor in how much you save in gas, they are competitively priced in terms of cost of ownership.

The real turning point will be in about a year when the Tesla Mexican plant opens and the $25,000 compact begins selling. That price point will be the end of GM and Ford. They will not be able to compete.

My sister in law has a Tesla. Big deal, they use it for errands because the range is far lower than advertised. Try going far when its -19; that great 300 mile range turns out to be 140 miles and charging from 0-90 is faster than 90-100, so most people don't and won't get the 140. We're 20 years away, at least from them being even remotely convenient. One thing most news outlets left out about last year's heat wave? Anyone with a computerized electrical system (ya know turn your fucking ac on from work) found out the government can shut off your electricity if you try to home charge against your orders, on top of setting your house to 85 degrees. At the beginning there were steam and electric cars, so its not even a new idea, but right now its just a niche for rich white virtue signalers.

My prediction: Once they become more common it will take two generations for people to understand they are silent and to stop crossing the street in front of them and dying.

My concern is depreciation. I tend to keep my vehicles for a while. What value will a EV have at 6 years old, when at 8 years it is going to need a $10k to $20k battery replacement?

They are discovering that car batteries are good for about 3,000 charging cycles. So, if you charge every night, they’ll last about 8-10 years. But, if you are only driving 20 or 30 miles a day, they’ll last much longer.

Everything skibum says about winter driving is correct. On the other hand, the Tesla heat pumps can be operated by phone, so you can warm your car before getting in. Or, in my case, cool your car in the summer. That’s a nice feature.

Another aspect of Tesla that will pop up in the next couple years is full self driving. All Teslas have the hardware needed for this.

About 100,000 Tesla vehicles are testing FSD right now and they’ve made a lot of progress in the last year using artificial intelligence.

There are videos on YouTube if you want to see how close they are. Right now, they operate flawlessly on major highways, pretty well in suburban and rural settings, but struggle in some dense urban locations.

Elon says this will be ready for the public by the end of the year, which probably means 2 or 3 years.

Go EV if yiu find yourself in this situation…

1. You “need” to lease or buy a new vehicle. If you’re used vehicle still runs good, better financially to hold onto it.
2. Most of your driving is commuter, and not long distance. Charging at home is most beneficial, which leads to….
3. Access to affordable charging, such as living in an area with lower electrical rates (ie Arizona) and doing so at home.

I’m sure I left some thing out. I’m in 2 of the 3 scenarios, but the numbers add up for me to stick with my gas guzzling truck. No financing costs, low insurance, hauls anything for home projects/remodeling, and little to no registration fees. Price of owning anything new has many hidden costs to nickel and dime you to death, equal to the costs of maintaining an old vehicle for repairs. My thinking is by maintaining an old vehicle it is essentially lowering a persons carbon footprint than buying a new EV. However, if starting off brand new in need of a vehicle that you will own for 10-20 years, EV all the way if you have the above 3 criteria met.

Self-driving vehicles work on long, straight, flat roads where there are very few trees. On the curving densely wooded roads of New England they are beyond useless. Just another scam to force people into large prisons, oops I mean big cities.

In Arizona, it costs $2 to fully charge an EV at home in the winter and $5 in the summer. That allows about 250 miles of driving.

For someone who drives 15,000 miles a year, that’s under $300. With gas prices at $5/gallon here, the annual cost of gas is closer to $3,000.

Until recently, self driving code was written by humans one line at a time. Back then, I thought it would take 20 years to develop.

Now, it’s being developed by artificial intelligence, using millions of miles of data from Tesla cars on the road. The progress has been exponential.

They are getting close.

Regarding the folks worried about the cost of replacing batteries, keep in mind batteries have come down in cost since 2009 by about 90%, I’m sure as more EVs enter the market the cost will continue to decrease even accounting for the costly raw materials like lithium. Another factor that will reduce the costs of ownership is there’s less costs associated with EV maintenance than with ICE needing tuneup’s, fluid and transmission maintenance etc. the self driving is going to be a while before it will be truly useable, but it will enable many to live a more active life. My guess is it will become easier and more efficient and the adaptation will be quicker, and less stressful than you all think.

In about a year, Tesla will have a $25,000 compact car/hatchback that costs $300 per year to fuel. It will be faster, quieter, and less costly to maintain ( half as many parts ) than a gas vehicle..

The Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic will also cost $25,000 but will cost $3,000 per year to fuel.

That’s why I am buying Tesla stock aggressively.

Another aspect of EVs is China. They are making millions of EVs that sell for $10,000 to $15,000 in China. The quality isn’t bad. They are beginning to export these to Europe ( at higher prices ).

All the long-term use testing on electric vehicles have been by professionals. The idea the average driver will pay the same maintenance and repair costs is simply untrue. Like everything else today this is a scam.

It depends on your personal situation.

If you primarily drive locally and have the ability to charge at home an EV makes a lot of sense.

If you frequently travel long distances (more than a couple hundred miles) or don't have the ability to charge at home they don't make much sense unless you also have a 2nd vehicle. If you frequently have to use public charging like Tesla's supercharger it can be inconvenient and a lot more expensive than charging at home.

If you frequently tow anything I would hold off for a while on an electric truck because the range when towing is not there yet.

Personally what I would be looking for is something like the Chevy Volt was but updated with better battery tech. It had an electric driveline that gave you a limited range and then had a gas engine that would be used as a generator for longer trips. The battery gave you about 50 miles of range and then when the gas generator kicked in it got about 42 mpg. For me that would mean 80% of my driving would be electric only and the 4 days a month where I drive longer distances would be at a decent mpg. If they could upgrade to newer battery tech and get 150-200 miles of ev range and keep the gas generator it would mean that all of my normal driving would be electric only and I would only use gas about twice a year while on longer trips. I would really love to see an electric truck with a range extending fast or diesel generator for towing, electric motors make plenty of torque for towing but it eats the battery too quickly.

As it stands right now I am looking at buying an EV in a couple of years but keeping my truck for towing and for longer drives on vacation once or twice a year.

The problem with hybrids, and especially plug in hybrids, is they are very complex vehicles. Two different drive trains plus the computer to coordinate them. More expensive to build. Double the chance of a major mechanical issue.

While I believe electric vehicles will soon dominate, workhorse vehicles like diesel trucks will still be around for decades. They do the job and won’t be easily replaced.

Here’s an interesting fact. All those Tesla Superchargers have large batteries buried beneath them. Tesla buys electricity off the grid at super cheap late night rates, then charges cars at peak prices during the day. Tesla makes a shitload of money off the price difference.

The Cybertruck will be out in a few months. Not much has been released about its price or specs. Best guess is it will start in the $70,000 range but eventually drop to $50,000 as supply grows.

I don’t know its range or towing but it is rumored to do 0-60 in 2.9 seconds.

Anyone here have any firsthand knowledge of the EVs being offered by Mercedes Benz?

Tesla stock is up 4.6% today. Did this thread do that ? Impressive !

I will NEVER purchase an EV. Half the reason is I just don't fucking like them. The other half is I despise being pressured by government to do anything against my will.

I know it doesn't seem like it right now because while EVs are becoming more popular and available, and TV commercials are devoted almost entirely to them, there is still no shortage of traditional ICE cars or gas stations. But you can see the writing on the wall... Newsom in CA imposing mandates for EV use over the next few years, and this fucking asshole Murphy here in NJ talking the same bullshit, like he's Newsom's pet parrot.

FUCK those douchebags, FUCK electric vehicles, and FUCK the lying environmentalists who claim these cars are better for the FAKE climate change threat. FUCK 'em all.

I would sooner walk around wearing a dress and drinking Bud Light before I'd ever buy an EV.

^ if you do that we need pictures 😂😂😂

I was strongly against government support and subsidy of the EV industry. I think human caused climate change is just so much hype. These subsidies have killed the auto industry and all related industries like gas stations and mechanics.

What should have happened is let EVs prove themselves superior in the market. That would have taken 10 years and allowed the auto industry to transition.

But, here we are. Even if EV tax credits are killed ( and they should be ), we now know EVs are superior to ICE vehicles when produced at scale. And, the center of the automotive industry is Austin, not Detroit.

I have no first hand knowledge of Mercedes EVs, but I will point out that the Mercedes EQS and Tesla Model X Plaid both sell for $105,000.

EQS: 329 horsepower Model X Plaid: 1,000 horsepower

I don’t know this for sure but the EQS they showed me had 649 Brake horsepower not sure they’re measured the same way, but I’m going to take a ride to look at the AMG EQX coupe next week if my guy has one in stock, all I can tell you for sure is they’re offering me $7400. more for my E63Coupe than I paid brand new, I’ll let you know what I find out. I like the way my Benz drives, I test drove a Tesla about a year ago and I wasn’t impressed too much yaw and the ride was a bit pitchy.

"FAKE climate change"

Is the issue that climate isn't actually changing or that the reasons for it are being misrepresented? You know like there isn't sex in the champagne room or that sugar babies who fuck for money aren't prostitutes.

Looking at 50 or 100 years of weather data and calling it a climate emergency is like looking at one day on the NYSE and calling it a trend. Driving around in electric fagmobiles isn't going to change anything.

Climate change happens

Solar activity, volcanic emissions, forest fires all affect climatic cycles

To a lesser extent, human economic activity affects climate

Not all climate change is bad. When the ice age warmed, that was a good thing

If climate warms, or cools, that hurts some regions/species and benefits others

If we change our economic activity to affect climate, we must first have an accurate model of whether the resulting climate change justifies the cost of modifying/reducing our economic activity. No such model exists.

For example, banning coal would destroy the economy of developing and poor countries, putting millions of lives at risk. Does the benefit justify that loss of life ? Until we know the answer, we shouldn’t take a sledgehammer to the world economy.

And, for those who insist we must reduce our carbon footprint at any cost, I offer a proven, safe, economical solution. Modern nuclear energy.

If you reject that, I suggest that climate change is just a rationale for getting power and political control.

^ yup

The birth rate has plunged across the world. We are near our peak population and it is going to drop fast. For example, China’s population will be half the current level within 30 to 50 years. That same pattern will exist in every country though some will take longer to get there.

In 50 years, no one will be concerned about man made climate change.

If you want to put this “ man affects climate “ into perspective, I suggest you read about The Little Ice Age

britannica.com

I literally have a PhD in this shit from the University of California.

EVs can make sense if you're upper income and don't have long commutes or have other cars.

EVs will never.get cheaper than ICEs because that big box of minerals called the battery is made of semiprecious commodities. There is only so much that is cheap and easily available. The more popular EVs get the more demand for the minerals which will push prices higher.

Batteries have entered their incremental phase of technology advancement. It isn't likely that a major breakthrough is going to make them substantially cheaper. Too much time and money has been put into battery tech for there to be a major revolution still possible. They will hype something every couple of years, but it's never market viable.

You also get relatively less for your money in terma of amenities in an EV. Compare the interior of a $50k ICE to a $50k EV. The ICE is a big step up. Batteries are expensive. Fuel tanks are cheap.

EVs have a use case that's substantial but they aren't for everyone. Not even close. It's just that people would like ro make a lot of money on them, including the legislators forcing them.

@Mike I think it's only Teslas that have (optional) self-driving capabilities.

I believe it's the case that satisfied electric car owners typically live in multi-vehicle household that also own a gas-powered vehicle. If a company wants me to buy their electric car, they should have a side business of inexpensive, low-friction rental of gas-powered cars.

As I understand it, rare earth minerals can be found anywhere but the refining process ( under current technology ) is an environmental mess. That’s why they are expensive and primarily sourced through China.

Also, batteries and magnets can be made with varying elements and quantities of metals. In general, the more rare earth minerals, the more effective they are.

Tesla is addressing this through a new process for refining lithium plus a use of less expensive, less efficient, chemistries for lower cost vehicles. I believe Tesla has claimed their $25,000 Model 2 will use little rare elements. In particular, I believe the magnets used in the motors will have to be larger and heavier because they won’t include rare earth minerals.

The fact that lithium prices have dropped significantly, while battery production skyrockets, suggests there are alternatives.

“ EVs will never.get cheaper than ICEs”

In China, BYD has sold hundreds of thousands of EVs for under $15,000. Tesla plans on selling 4 Million Model 2 EVs per year, beginning in 2024, for $25,000. They say they will make a profit at this price.

“You also get relatively less for your money in terma of amenities in an EV”

It depends on what your are looking for. The Tesla Model Y has a minimalist interior. It looks nothing like a traditional luxury car. But, it has lots of room, a massive glass roof, and 450 horsepower.

Unlike every other car, it is software based with a single computer coordinating all elements of the car. Functionally, the Model Y can do things that other cars can’t. For example, you can control the heat and AC from your phone, allowing you to make the car comfortable before you use it. And, self driving is one hell of an amenity. But, no, it doesn’t have mahogany and leather on its dash.

Interesting read if you are a "roadtrip" type of person. I rented a Tesla once and it was cool but seems there is a "charge" anxiety that doesn't exist with a normal vehicle.

yahoo.com

That road-trip sounds like the worst possible scenario, including the decision to use the heat pump while camping. Still, he managed to make it.

Assuming there was electrical service at the campsite, it’s possible to plug in and get some charge. Even a 110 home outlet will give you 4 miles per hour of charge. Far from ideal but it’s an option.

It all depends on where you live, what your budget is and what your driving needs are.

I love my S. It destroys every other car in regards to merging, getting onto the highway etc and anything that needs speed. Having Tesla's HQ just miles away means chargers are everywhere I need and I don't really drive anything farther than ~200 miles away (with tons of super chargers along the way).

If your needs match then it can be great. Normal cars are total fucking garbage after driving this - but I don't give a fuck about negative degree weather, roadtrips or any of the things mentioned. The charging IS something that becomes a factor - again, you need to assess your needs before getting one if interested.

1. RE modern nuclear, how does that reduce emissions of cars and trucks?
2. Batteries don't die the day after the warranty runs out. But for EVs no oil change, timing belt, cat converter, alternator, fuel pump, muffler, spark plugs, air filter etc. to deal with. And very little use of brakes. Just new tires, windshield wipers and soon a coolant flush for the water-cooled batteries and power electronics
3. My hybrid (Volt) doesn't literally have 2 drivetrains. The engine is a generator and is rarely connected to the wheels. 5yrs so far but only 35K mi and not one problem.
4. EVs aren't really more computers on wheels than ICE cars, except for the battery monitoring module. And the 360VDC-12VDC and converter and inverter for the motors aren't computers.
5. Self-driving isn't unique to EVs.

“ EVs aren't really more computers on wheels than ICE cars,”

The typical ICE car has over 100 microchips, each controlling a separate function. Teslas have a central computer that controls these functions, allowing for greater control, flexibility, and coordination. That’s how Teslas are years ahead of other cars, both ICE and EV.

“RE modern nuclear, how does that reduce emissions of cars and trucks?”

It doesn’t. It does however reduce emissions relative to fossil fuel power plants. And, it allows more rapid expansion of electrical capacity than solar or wind. As EVs grow in popularity, we need to add electrical capacity to the grid. That, in turn, reduces emissions from ICE cars and trucks.

The practicality of an electric vehicle depends on where you live and what kind of traveling you do. Many of the people I know with EVs also have a gas car. So, even the folks who are invested have a plan B.

It's not right for me right now, but it's pretty obvious (at least to me) that the option to own a gas-only car will disappear eventually. Regarding the technology, most modern gas cars are very computerized and can be hacked if someone is clever enough.

I forget the name, but there's a guy out there working on adapting classic/vintage trucks to run on hybrid or all-electric systems. While it sounds like blasphemy, his goal is to keep working trucks on the road as long as possible. Interesting stuff.

EV's are ugly and don't sound cool. Where can I use 1,000HP? I'll buy one when the infrastructure is in place to properly support them and a reliable source for electricity is in place. In other words. Not in my lifetime.

Kind of like buying a Mustang 5.0? Ugly and what are you going to do with all those extra ponies driving through a senior living facility?

To each their own, and offering choice for the consumer to fit their own personal needs is nice. One (EV) for commuter needs locally, and the other (ICE) for everything else.

^ Right because everyone wants to buy and maintain two cars. And I live in a large condominium complex where I only have one assigned parking space. I can't foresee any way our parking lot could be outfitted with charging stations, and what am I supposed to do when Governor Murphy outlaws ICE cars? Go to some central charging station, plug in, take an Uber home, Uber back 4 hours later, and do that every 2 or 3 days because I only get a few hundred miles out of a charge? Yeah, good luck with that. In fact, go fuck yourself.

As I posted in the OP; currently the biggest EV-obstacle for me is not being able to charge at home – related to this I’ve also heard if one constantly supercharges that that-would more-degrade the battery over time.

Seems the cheaper Tesla-models are now coming-equipped w/ the newer LFP-batteries which behave slightly different than the conventional lithium-batteries:

• conventional lithium batteries are recommended to be charged to 80% while LFP batteries seems recommended to be charged to 100%

• seems it’s recommended LFP batteries should be plugged-in everday, which would be problematic if one does not have home-charging

I’m not an expert in the EV-space thus not sure how accurate m comments are but kinda what I’ve hard mentioned.

I would also be in the camp that if I switched to an EV, that would be the only-car available to me which is kinda a further obstacle for me personally.

Given the highly software-based/digital nature of EVs; it’s often in the back of my mind if these highly electronic/digitized cars will more-or-less follow “Moore’s Law of Semiconductors”:

“... In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of Intel's co-founders, observed that the number of transistors on a microchip was increasing rapidly, exponentially increasing the computing power while decreasing the cost of the chip ...”

i.e. similar to Moore’s Law – as EV design and manufacturing becomes more advanced; it may have the “Moore's Law effect” of making them cheaper as it has for a lot of electronics over time?

I’ve also heard that cold-weather affects battery -performance – seems like Tesla has been working on this by providing “battery preconditioning” where the battery can be sorta “auto-warmed” as needed/required for performance/charging – e.g. if one puts a Supercharger-destination into Tesla’s trip-planner, it knows to start pre-conditioning the battery on the way there as needed for optimal charging.

Also seems the Chinese may currently be at or near the top of the food-chain w.r.t. battery design/manufacturing/research – seems the Chinese gov is heavily investing/subsidizing EV/battery development – I think I also heard the Chinese gov will outlaw ICE-cars sooner than later which would likely more-accelerate the EV/battery space:

electrek.co

I would ride a horse before I'd ever drive an EV. And some dumb-ass environmentalist can pick up the shit.

Some interesting recent developments w.r.t. EVs:

1. Shell has developed a technology which allows streetlamp-posts to be modified into EV-chargers for those that utilize street-parking – apparently it has already been deployed in parts of Europe although IDK much about-it but if it works seems like it would be helpful for those that don’t have access to at-home-charging:

archive.autofutures.tv

1. KInda hard to believe – but I had been hearing that the Tesla Model-Y had become the best-selling car in Europe so far in 2023 – not the best selling EV; best selling car EV or ICE – and that in the U.S. the Model-Y was the 4th-best-selling car (EV or ICE) and predicted to also become #1 (ICE or EV) by end of 2023:

carscoops.com

caranddriver.com

^ as the Lefties would say:

"you can't stop the revolution"

The Chinese dominate the battery industry. They are currently supplying a lot of the batteries for EVs around the world, plus the exploding market for large scale energy storage, which could be a bigger business than EVs.

The good news is Tesla, and half a dozen others, are building large battery plants in North America. This is, in part, because of government incentives.

I suspect North America will eventually supply their own market while China will dominate Asia and Europe.

The Tesla Model Y is a really good vehicle for $40,000 ( after rebate ). Over the life of the car, it will save $10,000 in fuel cost compared to comparable ICE vehicles.

If you compare it to a $40,000-$50,000 Toyota Highlander, it’s more than competitive. If you consider the $10,000 fuel savings and compare it to a base model Toyota RAV4 at $30,000, the model Y is a slam dunk.

Since Tesla doesn’t advertise, the model Y is selling by word of mouth. And, the word is spreading.

Regarding cold weather:

The Tesla Model Y continues to assert its dominance in Norway's electric vehicle market, with sales data from the first four months of 2023 revealing the electric SUV outsold its five closest competitors combined.

Norway leads the world in electric vehicle adoption with approximately 83% of the market share belonging to pure electric vehicles.

Let's start building our military tanks with EV engines, so we can be totally prepared for the Chinese and Russians when the time comes. I'm sure they won't mind us taking a break from the fighting so we can charge them up. I'll bet we can get 10 or 15 miles out of them before they go dead.

Not everyone that buys an EV thinks they are saving the planet. I couldn't give a fuck about the climate change losers. Nothing significant is happening and the reality is even if the US had a carbon footprint of zero - it does NOTHING. India/China I believe are like 80% of the climate change impact (as limited as it is) so it's absolutely retarded to obsess over it.

I enjoy my car because it is a different experience and pleasant. I also find it hilarious how much I can shit all over basically any car on the road while also driving one of the absolute safest cars if something unfortunate was to happen.

Oh - and mr oj - tanks already have dogshit range to begin with and their fuel tanks are massive. I can't speak to how good or bad a massive, heavy ass battery (on a vehicle that's already 100k lbs) would be as a liability - but who knows how things play out over the next 10 years there.

Only one reason why EVs will be more predominant over time, economics. Once people who need to buy a new vehicle figure out that it is less expensive to drive one compared to fueling up for gas and maintaining ICE will they decide to make the switch. It’s why I would. No more stopping at gas stations, no more oil change appointments, no more radiator flushes or transmission fluid exchanges, etc. I think people’s time becomes important and they don’t want to tinker with setting appointments to repair and maintain, because EVs last longer w/out those little annoyances ICE has. Battery replacement sucks, but generally it’s a one time thing a person budgets for with a warranty.

The next big innovation on EVs is wireless charging, available now in China and South Korea.

Most people view Tesla as a maker of expensive EV vehicles for tree huggers. That’s how they started 10 years ago. It’s no longer true.

Tesla is quickly transitioning to a large scale manufacturer of affordable, quality vehicles with features and mileage that Ford, GM, and Dodge can’t compete with.

The Cybertruck will undercut the three OEMs major profit center, pick up trucks. It will force them to lower prices. It will take Tesla 2 or 3 years to get production fully up to scale.

The 2024 $25,000 Model 2 will cut other manufacturers off at the knees by selling a vehicle that dominates the under-$30,000 vehicle market. Between the $7,500 tax credit, and nearly free fuel cost, no one will be able to compete with Tesla in this segment. Even the Japanese will be crushed.

Ford has already decided to stop selling vehicles everywhere but North America and to reduce the types of vehicles it sells. They are going to try and use their profits from pick ups to fund a rapid expansion of their EV offerings. They will attempt to steal Tesla’s playbook and close the 5 year lead it has.

The Republicans in the House have passed a budget that would kill all the spending on green efforts. I support that.

But, even if the $7,500 tax credit for EVs goes away, it’s clear that EVs are now better value than ICE vehicles. We’ve turned a corner and there’s no going back.

As long as you're OK with burning coal or natural gas in your electric vehicle (about 60% of electrical power in the U.S. is from fossil fuels, the rest is "renewables" and nuclear), go for it. If you live in an area serviced by nuclear, or hydro and other "green" sources, that's a plus.

Unfortunately, the "features" being introduced to even ICE cars these days are horrendous. An auto manufacturer who can commandeer your vehicle and return it to the factory anytime they want is...less than desirable.

One part of Elon’s vision for Tesla is large scale energy storage. This allows time shifting for energy.

At a utility level, it allows them to store energy when there is excess capacity ( overnight ) and use it during peak periods. That reduces the need to build new power plants.

At an individual level, it offers homeowners the possibility of storing energy at low overnight rates and use it during peak rates. Here in Arizona, that means you could buy electricity at $.03 per KWH and use it a few hours later when it would have cost $.30 per KWH.

This is a new business but the potential is in the Trillions.

I actually like and am invested in the energy time shifting market, problem is the astronomical cost of entry to this market, if they can scale this properly it’s going to make a new generation of billionaires.

I appreciate that mark94 is seeing well beyond the simple minded bullshit.

You also can start to find some potential reality in what SpaceX is positioned to do. Their latest rocket launch that did in fact explode, which was basically expected, is massively significant. They have 100M TONS of cargo capacity for this rocket that will cost $2M. The current does like 15M tons and costs ~$20M (these numbers are not totally accurate). This makes it insanely cheaper, relatively, to transport lots of cargo. If they actually can take rockets to places where we can mine resources and bring them back....the world of energy storage innovations could be expedited. The next ~10 years will be fascinating.

I say this and I don't give a fuck about space. But it's important to be aware of significant shifts in our world as they allow for so much opportunity.

The real world changer will be AI. Its capacity is growing exponentially. So fast, that we don’t have a clue how it will change our world.

Tesla has at least 2 businesses with AI involvement.

Its full self driving is being developed by loading sensor data from millions of miles of driving into a super computer and letting AI learn how to drive. The progress over the last year has been astounding. Tesla claims we are months away from having self driving be much safer than human driving, on average. From videos I’ve seen, I tend to believe it.

They also have robots, built roughly in human form, that are part of the car assembly process. They can be taught to perform a lot of the work previously done by humans. Tesla plans to makes the sale of these robots for manufacturing another business. Imagine a manufacturing floor with hundreds of these robots performing complex tasks and being somehow controlled through AI. This could be reality soon, not in some distant science fiction future.

Today, Musk announced that when FSD is ready, everyone who owns a Tesla will get one free month of use. Now, that will be an interesting month.

Elon has claimed that Tesla is unique in that it could sell its cars at cost and still make money by selling subscriptions to Full Self Driving. There is no cost to Tesla to provide the use of FSD software. Any subscription fees are pure profit.

In 2030, when Tesla is making 20 million cars a year, eventually having 200 million cars on the road, FSD subscriptions could be half a trillion dollars of pure profit every year.

Three of my daughters have Tesla's or bmw electric. I have driven two of them and I like them. The problem is long distance trip charging. but for commuting around within a 200 300 mi range for day

0ops... hit post accidentally... anyway, commuting within a 200 to 300 mi range with charging at home makes it really cheap. I don't know about the other electrics but I know with Tesla's you don't need a fancy charger at home. having a 220 outlet with at least 30 amp service works just fine.

Pretty-interesting 1-on-1 Musk interview post yesterday's shareholder event - interviewer did a pretty-good job of touching on multiple different subjects with Elon from Tesla to Tweeter etc:

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Interesting guy. Driven. Super genius. Doesn’t suffer fools. Openly on the Autism Spectrum.

Between Artificial Intelligence, Robots, Satellite Communication, Energy, Transportation, and Media, there are an infinite number of ways he could change the world.

Automated factories ? Robots in space ? Cheap, sustainable energy ?

As Elon said yesterday, he has no lack of ideas. It’s all in the execution.

For over a year, he slept under his desk on the plant floor so the hourly workers would see his feet sticking out and know he wasn’t “ drinking Mai Tais on the beach”.

They're not really environmental beneficial unless the watts come from nuclear, wind or solar. Maybe Papi could keep it simple and buy a car with a big sail on it. The highways are wide in Miami, so he could tack into the wind.

Kinda blew my mind when in the interview Elon stated Tesla gets 3.6 million job-applicants per year while it only has 128K employees - Elon mentioned the acceptance-rate at Tesla is much-lower than at Harvard, or any elite University in the world 😮

Another thing that shocks me is how young many of the top-engineers at Tesla and SpaceX are.

Also in the interview Elon talks about how he and Larry Page, Co-Founder of Google, would stay up late into the night at Page's home talking tech but they are no longer on speaking terms (which makes one wonder about Elon' s motivation to take-on-and compete with everything Google does?).

Google has an AI that answers questions.

Tesla has an AI that models human action then trains a machine how to do it. He also has robots.

I have ( literally ) put my money down on which I think will be more valuable in 5 or 10 years.

In a recent survey, engineers rated Tesla and Space X as the #1 and #2 desired workplaces.

In case you missed the story, Elon founded Open AI, with $50 million, as a not for profit to develop and share AI. Page somehow stole it from him and turned it into proprietary software in a for-profit company. So, yea, Elon is pissed.

There are a lot of dangerous and/or grueling jobs that robots could do with a relatively simple AI. Mining. Roofing. Framing. Fire fighting. Toxic clean up. Smelting. Lumber jack.

These jobs pay $50,000+ with benefits. What would someone pay for a robot who could do this job for 10 years ?

LOL – during yesterday’s interview Elon coined a phrase that I thought was pretty-funny but also pretty-spot-on.

Elon was talking about the importance of employees being in the office vs only/mostly working-from-home – Elon made the point that these workers that only/mostly just wanna work from home, they still expect other people/workers to not work from home – i.e. these stay-at-home workers still expect Uber service; food delivery; restaurant workers; handymen; etc; to be available and all these people don’t have the option ”to work from home” yet the stay-at-home-workers feel they should be treated differently.

Elon felt these “I only wanna work from home” people had a sense of entitlement and coined them “The Laptop Class” – LOL.

It's odd to me that the very people who worry the most about debt-to-GDP ratios and fiat currencies are also the ones with unqualified admiration for people like Musk. Has he ever been the key leader in a startup that went on to pay actual dividends? You're supposed to buy stock based on the dividend yield (or more tax-effective stock buybacks), or at least the expected future dividend yield. When you're looking for a capital gain on a stock, without any idea when the company will ever pay a dividend, it's no different than speculating in Bitcoin.

The internet gives everyone a resume Gatling gun. Nothing impressive about a company getting many applicants per available job. If Musk manages to hire lots of people away from FANG, that I would be impressed by.

My company allowed anyone who maintained high productivity during COVID to continue to work from home if we wanted to. Can't say as I care if Musk sees anything wrong with that. I'd probably have to work more hours for less money if I went to work at Tesla or Space X anyway. Jobs at companies like that are generally best for inexperienced people, as a stepping stone to something better.

EV makes sense for me. Lots of chargers in so cal. Plus I’ll put solar on the roof soon. I work from home plus monthly trips around 100-200 miles away. I do longer road-trips 3-4 times a year and won’t likely use the ev for those. I can’t justify the cost of a Tesla S, X or the new BMWs, Mercedes, Rivian, Polestar, but I hate the look of everything else, (Hyundai kia Nissan ford Chevy vw).. Recently decided on taking over a lease on a model Y. We’ll see how it goes, I can bail after 18 Mo and go back to ICE or a plug-in hybrid. Hopefully better options by then.

A new Tesla Model 3 sedan will be revealed soon. Days or weeks away.

I’m curious to see the price. The new Model 3 has been designed for manufacturing efficiencies.

The least expensive Model 3 currently is $36,250 ( $40,000 minus a $3,750 tax credit ). I would not be surprised if the new net cost was under $35,000. If the battery is made in US, qualifying for the full tax credit, it should be closer to $30,000. That would be a hell of a bargain.

Kinda-interesting short-vid about the current-state of the Tesla-Semi - seems progress is slow - what caught my attention was at the ~5:08-mark in the vid where the narrator states that most of the semis that have been delivered to PepsiCo have been almost-completely-subsidized via Federal/State/Local government-subsidies and seemingly little-to-no-cost for PepsiCo:

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BYD $11K Electric Vehicle:

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Interesting vid about new batteries for Model-Y:

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Musk blows his cred as pro-environment by making people commute to the office.

BYD is selling their $15,000 Chinese cars in Europe for more like $25,000-$30,000.