tuscl

Hot strippers could flood the business - if economy kicks down

Tuesday, January 8, 2008 9:25 PM
I have cited Xdamage's comments today (from stripperweb) as background, because they form the underlying basis to my comments. One could argue the inverse of the premise posted in the topic heading above, however I'm reverting to a "survival of the fittest" alternative as being the most likely scenario. Personally I think it will be alot of hot new dancers working even harder than dancers typically work work today, making strip clubs a true alternate reality world and unique again and having the power to at least keep the foot traffic numbers up -even if many patrons cannot afford dances. For any customers still having cash, while no one wants a recession, its probably going to be good news for the strip club customers still able to afford this hobby. In theory one could argue that less spending by typical customers means less dancers making large amounts of money - thereby means less hot women entering the stripping field, but in fact a recession would also mean less opportunities for these same women in regular (non-stripping) jobs in the normal world. Now obviously customers cannot spend what they don't have, but the customer base does vary, including new groups of customers in varying quantities at various times, some with money and some without, however currently I do think that having so many 6 or lower women working in the profession in recent years has demotivated customers from not only spending but sometimes from even going to clubs in the first place. Why go to a club if half the dances (e.g on a bad day) look like the average young women at Walmart? Strip club owners have let many low (dancer) quality women into the profession simply because they have a pulse and will pay the house fees. However that shortterm strategy can only work so long, and strip clubs will not be able to attract and hold even new customers if they continue on that track. They've got to keep customer traffic either going up or figure a way to minimize any declines - if for anything just to keep selling those overpriced drinks, which obviously are highly profitable given the fact bartenders and waitresses are not a major overhead item for clubs. If one believes we are on the doorstep of a major recession as I do (in part simply because they are first unavoidable, and second, booms create busts -and since we had a massive real estate boom fueled by a credit bubble, some portion of the flip side is inevitable) and if one adds in other specialized factors relative to the exotic dancing profession such as low entry barriers (no special qualifications, investment, or training required), ongoing decreasing stigma about stripping, flexible hours, low taxes and so forth - you could see how women born with great beauty are increasingly going to be at least looking at this field. BACKGROUND (quoting xdamage, today 1-08-08, pink site (blue side), General Discussion "Whats with the attitude") BEGIN QUOTE I guess I think the sense of entitlement is more of a symptom of social changes more so than the cause, but to be clear, I think the entitlement mindset is not something that happened in one generation in our society. It's an evolving mindset that is intimately tied up with a relatively long period of prosperity (relatively speaking as compared with other periods of history and other societies), and our society that values freedom of expression and places a lot of focus on individual happiness. If our society was to go through a major economic depression the mindset could change fairly fast. Regarding working together as a group not being a factor in the past. I think you can't compare the past with the present. Things have changed. It wasn't a factor in the past because dancers were rarities. These days with so many girls entering the industry for fast easy money, it is a factor. It's just like nature. If there are a few animals competing for abundant resources then they don't need to work together. But if there are many animals competing for limited resources their choices are work together, or compete hard, and it is survival of the fittest. And I really don't believe they are capable of working together. There is no professional standards applied to stripping because any girl with no training, no skills, and no accountability can enter the industry. She just needs to be willing, and reasonably attractive. No school is required. No big money is at stake (e.g., like a model who works for a client who has a lot at stake when running an advertising campaign; or an athlete working for a sports team that has a multi-hundred million dollar a year budget and expectations of profits). Without some type of motivator to work together, I think you'll just see good old survival of the fittest mentality where the fittest are much like what we see today: o Exceptionally physically hot. o Those willing to do more for less. o Exceptionally good at the psychological aspects of convincing men to spend on them. And I expect to see even more women entering the industry as time goes on as the stigma about stripping decreases. The pie will be cut even thinner. The lure of fast, easy money, low accountability, flexible hours, no training required, feelings of "empowerment" related to sexuality and controlling males, etc., suggests more women will be entering and competing for limited resources. Who knows ... eventually the US stripper market may end up like Amsterdam where strip clubs are now nearly non-existant, replaced by inexpensive prostitution, live dildo/sex shows, champagne clubs that also offer live sex/dildo shows, etc. The only difference is in Amsterdam the current generation of 20 somethings doesn't think there is anything abnormal about this state of affairs. This is just the way it is. Paying $20 for a low contact dance in a SC ... haha, why would anyone do that END QUOTE

20 comments

  • SuperDude
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    16 years ago
    Recession will produce more divorces. More lonely guys going to clubs, but demanding better quality. Recession will also dump more women into a sinking market and stripping will become one alternative.
  • compoundword
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    16 years ago
    Wow, you think about this too much... In general, SC's are a luxury good. Demand for luxury goods increase as relative incomes increase. In a recession, relative incomes are stagnant or decreasing. Therefore, demand will remain stagnant or decrease proportionally with income. Barriers to entry have always been fairly low to work in the sex industry and a decrease in demand isn't going to lower them any further (neither are any of the psychological factors mentioned - those have always been there). You will probably see a tightening in the sex industry - prices may decrease slightly but most likely supply will shift accordingly. I do not see any reason why there would be a supply-side shock as you argue.
  • ClevelandTom
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    16 years ago
    I agree with compoundword. . . you've got to get outside for some fresh air. Really, who thinks about this shit?
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    "Really, who thinks about this shit?" Certainly not boring fucks like you
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    "Recession will also dump more women into a sinking market and stripping will become one alternative." A "supply-side shock" (compoundword's term) might be a good way to label it, even though he disgrees with the underlying premise. Taking an extreme case but having applicability to all sorts of women at various levels of education and skill, consider that in reference to what some have labeled the "opt out" issue, over 50% of women graduates of the Harvard B School from classes 15 to 20 years back - have either dropped out of the work force or are working part-time, way below their potential, precisely when they should be crashing through the endlessly hyped (so-called) "glass ceiling". In the top law firms in the country which basically only hire the best students from the best schools, female lawyers also have a very high opt out rate, in this case opting out of potential down-the-road partnerships. The problem turned out not to be a "glass ceiling" per se, instead it seems women in general tend to not want to give up their lives for a job the way most men seem to thrive on doing, and they often don't appreciate working 60 to 70 plus hours a week. Now obviously these are (nearly always) not the women that will consider stripping as a career choice, however the same pattern is true for women has one moves down the corporate chain or in all sorts of various jobs, they want flexibilty and they don't want to give their entire lives up. Its about about younger women, typically less educated, but women looking and analyzing prospective opportunities. Forget about 80k student loans and years of paying them back, just imagine a stripper that put equal effort into her job at the level of one of these professional women attempting to advance up the career ladder. Few (less than 20% per pink site a recent quick survey) even work 6 regular shifts a week - which for professional women would be relativey low hours in many jobs. Xdamage alludes to to the fact that with "a major economic depression the mindset could change fairly fast." Now he's talking about the entitlemnet mentality, however this is all intertwined with the issue of precisely what people will do to and how much effort they will make to earn money. Its not hard to see a case where you have a large supply of women dumped into the work force, and many more looking at stripping as a viable alternative, and I believe that will in all probability bring up the quality of strippers.
  • jimmyblong
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    16 years ago
    Every year I get a little older and there's a new graduating class populating the poles. Thats the economy of succession.
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    Keep in mind that we've only had 2 recessions in the past 25 years and both were fairly mild and didn't lst very long. And that in a typical recession the unemployment rate increases at the most about 5%. Which means that only a fairly small percentage of people are directly effected by it. It's hard to see a 2008 recession, if there is one, having much effect on strip clubs. People are resilient, they adjust. Don't look for much change.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    The strip club downturn, whatever its cause, by most evidence is already under way in certain markets - and by spring it could be indicated in most locales. As for an actual economic recession, its a guess, but an easy money spigot overlayed by a massive flood of talented workers from the de-shackling of communism over the past decade or 2 who were dumped onto the global economy. something that accelerate in the early 21st century -helped to keep the cost of capital lower than it otherwise would have, allowing the Fed much more leeway, otherwise we may have a recession several years ago At this point in terms of an economic (hidden) recession or not, there is no evidence of strippper (appearance) quality picking up, seems to be club owners doing the usual thing to keep it all going for them - hire the pulse for the house fee. I hate to see a deep recession, but its with that kind of recession where I suspect the kickup in quality will occur. Owners will need top shelf girls to get patrons back into the clubs. For girls that can stomach this business, the work isn't really that bad, particuarly those working day shifts in decent clubs, for example in some clubs on the floor by lets say 12:45 pm - out by 6:30 to 7.00 with 3 days per week mandatory and the rest optional, and a few days on the floor by 12.00 noon. It compares favoriably to many other jobs.
  • casualguy
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    16 years ago
    I'm not picturing more dancers working in the same clubs. I can easily imagine the amount of money strip club patrons spend might go down if they are worried about their jobs and/or trying to save money. With less money in the club, there won't be enough to support even more dancers. If the hot looking dancers want a lot of money for their dances but no one is paying, they may just decide to quit. However I don't know which clubs they may opt to work in then.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    By definition, presuming an underlying economic recession, its reasonably predictable to suggest that total patron spending per club will either drop in absolute terms or stay the same or far less likely simply grow more slowly. In no case should it increase rapidly. As for dancer incomes, its entirely conceivable that both the quality of dancers will rise at the same time average per capita dancer income decreases, or in other words more attractive dancers working for less. That in any case would likely take a very deep recession.
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    I think one of the things that has been happening is that there's a wider range in dancer quality then there used to be. And as a result there are more dancers who aren't making very much. And they're the ones doing all the comlaining. It's a trend that's been going on for a long time. Maybe I'm wrong but I seriously doubt that the top 25% are hurting in many clubs.
  • chipitin
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    16 years ago
    I have a theory on FONDL's quality comment. Correct me if I'm wrong, but years ago (10 say) weren't clubs primarily just for stripping and looking and not all of the contact lap-dance stuff that goes on today? I was only a casual attender back then. If that's correct, my theory is that the additional contact lap-dance business that seems to me to be more popular today has driven out the high-quality dancer that only wants to be paid for stripping, not contact lapping, and opened up the business to the lower quality dancer that is more willing to put up with the contact to get paid $30 for 3 minutes of work.
  • SuperDude
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    16 years ago
    PTT stock. Hold or sell?
  • AbbieNormal
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    16 years ago
    "Hot strippers could flood the business - if economy kicks down" Or, they could not since a loss of disposable income could depress the entire market, since stripping is a lot of work for a not guaranteed return and the best looking girls could find better ways to exploit their appeal, or they could flood the business if the economy kicks up, since a lot of extra disposable income could attract the better looking girls who would presumably benefit more, or if the economy kicks up the good looking girls could be pushed out by the second tier girls who are willing to do more for the guys who have a lot more discretionary spending money. Or maybe something will happen, and we'll toss out a formula to rationalize it in retrospect, and once again convince ourselves we're somehow in control, or even capable of predicting these things.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's statment today: “incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced”. WHAT HE REALLY MEANS - "a recession is currently underway in certain regions of the United States and this recession will soon be expanding to all regions, and the Fed will be easing monetary policy to the extent possible, (such that it would not induce induce inflation,) in an attempt to mitigate any damage from such recession, however one will only be able to figure this out retroactively 12 to 18 months down the road, and in any case the good news is - due to an increasingly tightening employment situation - strip clubs will have an increasingly higher probability of hiring hot and very sexy dancers"
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    Chipitin, I think you'r partly right. Your time frame is probably a little too short, the high contact has been pretty common for a lot more than 10 years. I don't think girls have been driven out of the business, just to different clubs - there are still a lot of clubs with little or no contact, aprticularly at the fancier end of the spectrum, and I think they are getting an increasing share of the most attractive girls. The high contact clubs are probably getting less attractive girls to fill the void. Here's another possibility - maybe as the economy weakens more and more girls will turn to escorting and erotic massage, which may be less sensitive to economic conditions because it's cheaper.
  • BobbyI
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    16 years ago
    Sounds like wishful thinkin. I would expect things to get worse. Seems to be what we are seeing in practice, too.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    "I would expect things to get worse. Seems to be what we are seeing in practice, too." The tendency to hire marginal or below marginal strippers has been going on for some time now, what maybe 3 to 5 years, which was certainly a period of economic prosperity for the national economy as a whole at least in nominal terms (ignoring massive trade deficits and other borrowings and so forth). The real issue is the opportunity cost for attractive women, in this case mostly minimally educated attractive women. In other words, by stripping what else are they giving up or foregoing in the real world. Attractive women tend to have higher opportunity costs in life for all sort of things, however in relative terms - that real world (non-stripping) opportunity cost will lessen should a major downturn happen, thus making stripping relatively more attractive .
  • casualguy
    •
    16 years ago
    Even worse than the strip club business is that I jumped the gun and bought some stocks too soon. Now I'm wondering how long it will take for them to go back up or if I should sell now and cut my losses before they possibly go down more. I think I will just hold on to most of them. I was thinking there might be a temporary rally in the market. Now I'm not sure why I was thinking that. The Fed hasn't been inspiring that much confidence. I did read 30 year mortgage interest rates were the lowest in the last 2 years. I think that might help. I'm thinking about cutting out lap dances from some favorites and cutting out everyone else to help save money. At least for the next 2 or 3 months. If a club raised their dance prices now, I would just say no to every dance in the club. I guess that's a different thread. Boycotts do get a message across though. If there's bad weather when I typically go out, I'll probably stay home instead as well. I think if others behave like me, the money available to dancers in the clubs will be going down dramatically. My strip club money is about the most discretionary money I have. It would be what I would cut out first before anything else.
  • David9999
    •
    16 years ago
    Pawn shops might be the only good investments for the next 5 years, as for strip clubs, it could also be good news for blondes, because asian men love american blondes, and the trend (actually good news) is asian cash being used to buy up american companies, meaning more asians coming to america, with a new story just out today about the big investment houses (holding these collateralized (mortage debt) obligations) now are looking for MORE huge infusions or cash from either asian or gulf oil countries - which have already bought up huge chunks of these same companies.
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