People are disappearing

Sunday, May 23, 2021 12:39 PM
For decades, we’ve been told that there is a population bomb that will destroy the planet. We were told the environment was threatened. Turns out, humanity’s biggest issue may be just the opposite. The New York Times tells us that populations are declining and this is our biggest crisis: “All over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore. Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks. Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing toward more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else. Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time. A planet with fewer people could ease pressure on resources, slow the destructive impact of climate change and reduce household burdens for women. But the census announcements this month from China and the United States, which showed the slowest rates of population growth in decades for both countries, also point to hard-to-fathom adjustments.”

53 comments

Are the people who wrote this the same people who predict climate changes? Here’s a prediction; doge coin will drop to $.25 and then a soft rebound before flattening out in the next month. There’s an article to hang your hat on.
Mate27
3 years ago
It takes a fertility rate of 2.2 to maintain a stable population. The US has been below that level since 1971. The downward trend was hidden by immigration and the baby boomer bulge. As boomers die off, the 2020 census has revealed what honest demographers already knew.
mark94
3 years ago
#fakenews. There are 8 billion people in the world. Dude, you used to post some interesting stuff about strip clubs. Ever since Trump, you've been pretty fucked up. Please step outside, go to some strip clubs and have some fun with T&A (titties and ass). Maybe hit up scrub and he'll invite you over for one of his famous pool parties.
mikeym
3 years ago
This discussion is in the politics forum. Did you come here expecting titty news ? If so, you were misinformed.
mark94
3 years ago
It's a strip club website, are you surprised strip clubs, tits and ass come up in any conversation on here?
Member6532
3 years ago
We used to talk about the next ice age. Now it's all about Global Warming. Next time we get a cold winter, we will start talking about that next ice age again.
Warrior15
3 years ago
The drivers here are more man-made/economic, rather than biological. For the most part, there's no need to have multiple children to work work at a family business or take over a job where a parent left off. There's also little social pressure to continue a family line. And, there's very little stigma attached to a childless marriage now. Also, the cost of having even one child is high, and risky seeing as adults can no longer count on stable employment over decades. In another thread, Shailyn brought up the topic of demand for luxury items during hard economic times (i.e. the pandemic). Having children (particularly multiple children) is quickly becoming a luxury endeavor.
Call.Me.Ishmael
3 years ago
Founder set up the political discourse forum so people who also wanted to discuss politics had a place to go and people who only wanted to discuss strip clubs could avoid politics by simply not clicking on politics. It’s a great solution as long as people who don’t want to talk politics don’t click on the politics button and express outrage that there’s politics being discussed in the politics forum.
mark94
3 years ago
Large families used to be every farmers retirement plan. The robots that do our farming in the future have no need for a retirement plan.
mark94
3 years ago
For those who aren't caught up, if you select the "Discussions" link, then you see *all* of the different discussions in the segmented forums (including the Politics forum) in one stream: [view link] If you select the "Forums" link, then you get to pick which forum you want to see: [view link] So, if you don't want to see politics (mostly...) then select the Front Room link. But don't complain about someone posting about political stuff in the "Politics" forum. It was created for exactly that purpose because all of this stuff used to get posted in the Front Room. You have the tools to not see these threads. All you have to do is use them.
Call.Me.Ishmael
3 years ago
This decline in working age population is already taking place in China and it will get worse over the next 20 years. It’s going to ruin any chance they had for becoming the world’s dominant economic power. Those us old enough to remember when Japan was certain to be the dominant economic power will recognize the pattern.
mark94
3 years ago
Soylent Green is people!
Uprightcitizen
3 years ago
Hey here’s a thought - before these effects - which ever way they go, good or bad - make a real difference in the word, everyone in this forum will already be dead - so you guys have nothing to worry about.
shailynn
3 years ago
It’s relatively easy for a centrally controlled economy to pull itself out of extreme poverty up to a point where most people have the basics in life. Reform agriculture to improve productivity. Invest in basic infrastructure. Build factories and take advantage of your vast population of low-wage workers to grind out simple goods. The next step, building a middle class economy is difficult, especially for a centrally planned economy. You need an educated work force, sophisticated financial systems, a well established rule of law that protects investment, and a free market economy that allows the invisible hand of economic decision making. China sorta, kinda, put some of this in place but by maintains ultimate control by the CCP, they are unlikely to truly become a middle class consumer economy. A minority of their urban population is there, but it’s unlikely to spread to the entire country.
mark94
3 years ago
I’m okay with increased immigration. It’s a reasonable way to keep our economy growing and financially support us old farts. I just think we need more engineers and entrepreneurs and fewer day laborers.
mark94
3 years ago
I’ve heard concern before on this. From what I’ve gathered, the only reason the US has avoided going below replacement level is immigration. But quite a few countries have already been below replacement for births. Some governments have put in incentives for people to procreate. [view link] Personally, whether or not I’m being naive, I have enough faith in people being able to innovate and societies being able to increase productivity per however many people are still around. Even if there isn’t a reversal where people decide they want to procreate en masse again at some point. But in the meantime things like pensions are probably screwed. On the other hand though, for several years there’s been an increase in multigenerational housing, which I think which I think will be a positive way to mitigate concerns with elderly care.
nicespice
3 years ago
The reason why we have a sex drive is to procreate if we stop the human race ends and the living organisms with the strongest sexual drives will eventually become the dominant force on the planet
twentyfive
3 years ago
Humans have a way of responding. No trend is linear. As the population declines, there will be all sorts of incentives to start having babies again. Government will offer financial incentives. Land and housing will be incredibly cheap. Farmland and clean water will be in abundance. Hell, robots will do most of the work, so we’ll have lots of time to procreate.
mark94
3 years ago
There are an awful lot of depressed twenty-somethings who are convinced the world is going to be an environmental disaster as they age. As I contemplate a declining population, it could be more of an Eden at some point in their lifetime. Technology and population decline will reduce pollution to near zero. Technology will raise living standards. Wide open, natural spaces will expand. It should be a great time to be alive.
mark94
3 years ago
Wow! My prediction of $.25 doge coin has come true!! Do I buy or wait? That is the most intriguing thing written in this post. Of course there is always ETherium and BTC, but whatever I put into I am going to look at it as if I never even posses it and forget about it. I was going to spend one or two thousand $$ on strippers this past month, but since it is sitting in my wallet without any quality stripper talent to take it from me, I’ll throw it away to the crypto space and forget about it, like strippers forget about me as soon as I leave the club.
Mate27
3 years ago
I have seen this coming for years. It’s due to many factors, and it’s fascinating to see the world population finally begin to slow and possibly decline. There is nothing wrong with a conscious decision to not reproduce at previous levels. The need to have male offspring is no longer a necessity as it was when the world economy was based in agriculture. Many western families have decided to have two or fewer children, and the reasons can be different. In the USA it appears couples are having children later, and that also contributes to fewer children. Couples are realizing the cost of having more children, and they are using a budget rather than a boner to decide how many kids to have. It’s going to be interesting to see how this effects the global economy going forward. I think consumption will continue to grow, as each individual will consume more, and the waste produced will remain high as well.
Cashman1234
3 years ago
Keep an eye on Africa. That’s the last remaining continent with a growing population. They also have untapped natural resources. For the African nations with a stable government and rule of law, economic growth could be huge for the next 20-30 years. Forget Dogecoin. Invest in Nigeria.
mark94
3 years ago
The cause of global decreased fertility... one word. [view link]
datinman
3 years ago
It’s not the case every where and the U.S. could have all the immigration of working aged people it needs if not for politics.
boomer79
3 years ago
In my view Africa isn’t cohesive. It’s too many small and non economically viable countries. Their resources are too segmented and there is little control to allow for profitable ventures. The growth in population isn’t helping their economies. It actually makes them poorer. Where is the value in a country of people living in huts made of shit, a largely agricultural society, limited intellect, minimal utilities, and very unstable governments?
Cashman1234
3 years ago
Historically, and as recently as the early 20th century, people had more children because more of them died of childhood diseases or calamity. So, as horrible as it sounds, they needed replacements for when that happened. For the most part, that's not true anymore. Except in Africa, where modern medicine is only recently making an impact on the survival rate of children. But, the social attitude there is still in favor of having larger families. Give it a couple of decades (perhaps more) and I think you'll see family sizes in Africa contract as well.
Call.Me.Ishmael
3 years ago
There are some bright spots in Africa “By the mid 1990s, Ghana was once again experiencing rapid economic growth, thanks to good governance put forward in policies and plans looking to improve the quality of life for Ghanaians. These gains were boosted in 2007 with the discovery of off-shore oil, and Ghana’s economy was showing signs of bursting at the seams. In 2019, Ghana was referred to as “the world’s fastest growing economy” with terms such as “skyrocketing” being used to describe its growth. In just three decades Ghana made a total turnaround and became the world’s fastest growing economy. The country has also consistently ranked in the top three countries in Africa for freedom of speech and press freedom according to The World Bank. These successes all stem from good governance and a shift towards sustainable development.”
mark94
3 years ago
One: glad to hear you read the NY Times, 'tis useful to get news from a variety of sources. 2nd, there is definitely no shortage of humans on this planet. We somehow adapted to having this many, hopefully we can adapt to there slowly being fewer. It will be challenging for a number of reasons, but continued population growth can only end badly, IMHO.
gSteph
3 years ago
The Times article cited in the original post is highly misleading (unsurprisingly). It is, like everything the Times puts out these days, globalist propaganda. The goal of the article is to justify mass immigration (both legal and illegal) to the US and other Western countries. While it is true that native-borns in the US, UK, Canada and other Western countries are having less kids than previous generations, people are most certainly not disappearing. China, India and many countries in Africa have out-of-control overpopulation, and have for decades. The last few years of mass immigration and the present demographic changes are just the beginning of a well-organized globalist agenda openly discussed in UN documents like Agenda 2030 (easily googled by anyone, they aren't hiding anything) where the goal is to alter the demographic composition of Western countries and bring everyone into a flattened, 3rd-world style global living standard. The benefit to multinational corporations of having cheap labor at their disposal is one of the main reasons why. The media's role (NYT included) is to shout down anyone who even questions these measures as a racist.
LapHunt
3 years ago
In 1798, Thomas Malthus put forward his widely read theory that food production could not keep up with population growth. At that time, the world population was one seventh what it is now. Just saying. We’ll be fine no matter what.
mark94
3 years ago
“ China, India and many countries in Africa have out-of-control overpopulation,” That might currently be true for Africa. It is no longer true for India and China. The distribution of the population by age might result in population growth for a while but the lower fertility rate at child bearing ages will eventually result in a contraction.
mark94
3 years ago
^Given the distribution of population by age, contraction may very well be in store for India and China, but that is surely a net positive since both those countries are grossly overpopulated and the majority of their people live in absolute squalor as a result. The question for people in countries with (currently) 1st-world living standards is whether they should accept the imposition of overpopulation into their communities which led to 3rd-world living standards in other places. The United States became a successful and thriving nation not just because of numbers, but because of the culture, values, work ethic and character of its native population. Immigrants came in and assimilated into this successful culture in the 20th century and things moved forward. If, however, the existing culture, values and work ethic are destroyed via mass immigration (without an expectation of assimilation) and cultural marxism, can one really expect the country to continue to thrive as it previously did?
LapHunt
3 years ago
Ha! I bought $2500 worth of doge coin at $.25 and just sold it for a $600 profit. Should I spend it on a stripper this week? After Uncle Sam gets $200 of it, does $400 get you anything anymore than a HJ or can you score otc with it?
Mate27
3 years ago
Mark I like you quotes but you are a right wing CJKunt. At least provide references and if you are feeling spicy some links to random topics and your favorite music. SJG needs an alter ego and now is your time.
Uprightcitizen
3 years ago
Many women are putting their careers first above marriage and family. They may understand the biological clock but seem to struggle (and are not told) the timing needed to meet marry and have pups. Add on a greater than 50% chance of being divorced with 70% of divorces being initiated by women makes having kids a very bad bet for men
Lone_Wolf
3 years ago
When you are confident that all of your children will outlive you, you realize you don't need as many. That's a big driver for the decrease in population growth in the developing world, lowering rates of infant mortality and general increasing in expected life spans. What is so wrong with the lower rates of population growth? I am aware of economists showing how it limits economic growth, but really why are we so focused on everything having to grow all the time? If everything need to keep getting bigger, eventually, that stops working.
bkkruined
3 years ago
===> "What is so wrong with the lower rates of population growth? I am aware of economists showing how it limits economic growth, but really why are we so focused on everything having to grow all the time?" Because most elderly support payments and medical programs rely upon tax revenue generated younger working adults. The more working adults there are per retired senior, the less of a strain there is on the system. Here in the U.S., Medicare is 14% of the U.S. budget and rising fast. Meanwhile, Social Security went inverted from a net annual surplus to deficit in 2010 and it is expected that the fund will be exhausted by 2034, which means either tax increases to keep payments stable, more deficit spending by the U.S. government or benefits cuts. In order to fund all of this largesse moving forward, we need our ratio of active workers to retirees to be growing, not shrinking. Same holds true in many other advanced nations with generous retirement benefits.
rickdugan
3 years ago
There is a reason the private sector dumped pensions a long time ago. Enjoy the collapsing Ponzi scheme.
nicespice
3 years ago
^^ whatever SJG. Did you post under the rong account again?
Mate27
3 years ago
Huh? I figured there was a good chance for my post to get some negative feedback. Didn’t expect to get accused of being SJG for it tho 🤔
nicespice
3 years ago
A sensible immigration reform that should have unanimous support would fix this. Secure borders and merit based immigration relative to job openings. Unfortunately, in today’s political climate, that won’t fly.
mark94
3 years ago
Nothing surprising, but still a fun read. [view link]
nicespice
3 years ago
A huge decrease in population would end the climate emergency lol.
skibum609
3 years ago
China decided to let families have 3 kids (up from 2), after taking stock of their demographic time bomb. People smarter than me predict major social unrest from too many elderly.
Tetradon
3 years ago
their gov't may say that they will allow up to 3 kids max. but how many would actually take up on that? lots of govt ovens will start to warm up again in 9 months.
rattdog
3 years ago
I read an article yesterday regarding the new 3 child policy in China. Most feedback from the Chinese public was that the average Chinese family can't afford to have 3 children. I guess they never really took to the 2 child policy after it was allowed.
mike710
3 years ago
^ Old habits die hard. But China is already crowded AF and an environmental disaster. No idea how they're going to feed everyone.
Tetradon
3 years ago
Capitalist greed makes it unaffordable to reproduce
Icee Loco (asshole)
3 years ago
Socialist stupidity makes poor people breed like rabbits. Rather have them not reproduce.
skibum609
3 years ago
Maybe I was living under a rock but ops first sentence makes no sense. I haven't heard that for "decades"
goodyman
3 years ago
^ In 1968, Paul Ehrlich's book “The Population Bomb” warned that the number of people on earth was spiraling out of control. Paul Ehrlich: We were worried then about the problems of feeding human society when there was three and a half billion people on the planet. Now we've got way over seven billion people.
mark94
3 years ago
That's just one man's book. Interesting though, Growing up I never got the sense that this was something folks worried about. Having driven across the US twice since covid started, I know for certain one thing we have is open space!
goodyman
3 years ago
ThePopulation Bomb had a monumental impact. Today’s environmental movement would look very different if it had never been published.
mark94
3 years ago
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