You do have a point on the valuations. But valuations do not move the market. Buying and selling does. Right now, there is just not anywhere that people want to put their money besides the market. At some point, that will change. I'm just not sure what will spark the sell-off.
It will happen though. At the point where no one thinks it possible. Honestly I think it might start on Nov 5. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Money managers buying the promos of 4 more years. They then sell when it became reality. And if sleepy wins, look out. The Progressive crash is ON.
Real estate in my area is selling in one day. Mortgage rates are very low, people are correctly spooked by stock P/Es, and the suburbs are more attractive because of the pandemic. If I had more energy I might consider rental properties.
I know exactly what will spark the sell off. When debts come due and assets need to be liquidated at immediate market rates. I’m not insane enough to time it tho so I just sit here saltier than a corn chip about missing out lmao
What @Warrior said, money has to go somewhere. I don't see that event that crashes the market. We're not making the same mistakes we did in the early 30s.
The market dove more than a third on the fear of corona, and uncertainty on what it might be. It might still be a threat, but we know it isn't going to kill 3 million Americans unless it mutates into something worse.
I'm accumulating cash with an eye toward real estate, because I'm already very overweight stocks, and I lack Juice's wisdom on the matter.
I don’t think the market cares about who wins the election I believe the market doesn’t like to be surprised they can adjust for whom ever wins as long as they receive enough time to shift into what is most favorable for them regardless of whom the winner might be
Right now is too late to start buying residential rental property it’s too high a valuation and we don’t know how much the evictions will hurt small landlords
Smart thing now is stay put and stockpile cash for the bargain hunting to come
I'm in cash. I hear SPX 3800. Let the market rip.
No FOMO for me. Never been able to time the market.
Only short term trading for me. Selling far out weekly put options on quality, dividend paying companies. Yields the equivalent of 7% annual. Good enough for me.
I realize this is a little off-topic, but as I was saying above the real-estate market in the suburbs is getting insane. This story is about New Yorkers where it's even more insane:
"New Yorkers Are Fleeing to the Suburbs: ‘The Demand Is Insane’
The pandemic is spurring home sales as prosperous city residents seek more space. One listing had 97 showings and received 24 offers."
"Over three days in late July, a three-bedroom house in East Orange, N.J., was listed for sale for $285,000, had 97 showings, received 24 offers and went under contract for 21 percent over that price.
On Long Island, six people made offers on a $499,000 house in Valley Stream without seeing it in person after it was shown on a Facebook Live video. In the Hudson Valley, a nearly three-acre property with a pool listed for $985,000 received four all-cash bids within a day of having 14 showings.
Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City, from New Jersey to Westchester County to Connecticut to Long Island, have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices, a surge that is unlike any in recent memory, according to officials, real estate agents and residents."
What worries me is that in a few years, when mortgage rates are 6%, no one will be able to afford these prices. When mortgages are 3%, these prices are reasonable relative to rent prices.
BUY, SELL, OR HOLD ? That is the question, regardless of where Dow is. So, what are the town criers going to do TODAY(or next business day) with their investments ? Buy more because this might be the middle of a long leg up ? Hold on, and smugly smile at the gains you've experienced in the last few months ? Sell because you think the market is over priced, and now might be a good time to take some profits ? If the later, I have another question for you: What are you going to do with the profits ? More to the point, when are you going to jump back in the market ? By then you may very well have missed out on some early recovery gains.
I have a feeling the $350K club plank owners know not to be too taken in by headlines, and stay in the game (with some modifications.)
The market topped out on Feb 18, then bottomed on March 23, and is now at another top. How many people on this board do you think sold on Feb 18, then bought on March 23, or something close to that ? I’ll wager it’s a much smaller number than those who rode it down to March 23, sold, and haven’t gotten back in.
No one is smarter than the market. If you’re going to need the money soon, get out of the market. If you won’t need the money for years, stay invested in stock. Time is an investor’s friend.
As much as my brain hates to think it, my heart is telling me we are going to melt up for another year probably. Unless Biden raises cap gains tax immediately on election.
Home prices are usually inverse to interest rates. With rates at historic lows, home prices are at historic highs. I hope if home prices get too high, technology will come around and replace lumber/cinder block construction with a cheaper, probably better alternative with a much lower cost per sq ft. I am a huge fan of the way the Japanese do it where most homes older than 30 years are demolished and rebuilt. In the US, people are paying a shitload for homes built 40+ years ago with $750/mo power bills.
I think the Japanese approach to homes has a lot to do with earthquakes. Build inexpensively with renewable materials and assume reconstruction will be needed from time to time.
That makes sense yeah. Still we could bring it here - some sort of inexpensive home designed to last 30-40 years. Not for earthquakes but for economic reasons.
I think another factor with Japanese homes is a culture that believes small is better. The average home in Tokyo is 980 square feet. No basement. No garage.
That would be a tough sale to a middle class American.
26 comments
“But this time is different!” Maybe
Super normal nothing to see here
It will happen though. At the point where no one thinks it possible. Honestly I think it might start on Nov 5. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Money managers buying the promos of 4 more years. They then sell when it became reality. And if sleepy wins, look out. The Progressive crash is ON.
The market dove more than a third on the fear of corona, and uncertainty on what it might be. It might still be a threat, but we know it isn't going to kill 3 million Americans unless it mutates into something worse.
I'm accumulating cash with an eye toward real estate, because I'm already very overweight stocks, and I lack Juice's wisdom on the matter.
Right now is too late to start buying residential rental property it’s too high a valuation and we don’t know how much the evictions will hurt small landlords
Smart thing now is stay put and stockpile cash for the bargain hunting to come
👍
No FOMO for me. Never been able to time the market.
Only short term trading for me. Selling far out weekly put options on quality, dividend paying companies. Yields the equivalent of 7% annual. Good enough for me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/nyreg…
"New Yorkers Are Fleeing to the Suburbs: ‘The Demand Is Insane’
The pandemic is spurring home sales as prosperous city residents seek more space. One listing had 97 showings and received 24 offers."
"Over three days in late July, a three-bedroom house in East Orange, N.J., was listed for sale for $285,000, had 97 showings, received 24 offers and went under contract for 21 percent over that price.
On Long Island, six people made offers on a $499,000 house in Valley Stream without seeing it in person after it was shown on a Facebook Live video. In the Hudson Valley, a nearly three-acre property with a pool listed for $985,000 received four all-cash bids within a day of having 14 showings.
Since the pandemic began, the suburbs around New York City, from New Jersey to Westchester County to Connecticut to Long Island, have been experiencing enormous demand for homes of all prices, a surge that is unlike any in recent memory, according to officials, real estate agents and residents."
I have a feeling the $350K club plank owners know not to be too taken in by headlines, and stay in the game (with some modifications.)
No one is smarter than the market. If you’re going to need the money soon, get out of the market. If you won’t need the money for years, stay invested in stock. Time is an investor’s friend.
Home prices are usually inverse to interest rates. With rates at historic lows, home prices are at historic highs. I hope if home prices get too high, technology will come around and replace lumber/cinder block construction with a cheaper, probably better alternative with a much lower cost per sq ft. I am a huge fan of the way the Japanese do it where most homes older than 30 years are demolished and rebuilt. In the US, people are paying a shitload for homes built 40+ years ago with $750/mo power bills.
Land ain't ever gonna get cheaper tho.
That would be a tough sale to a middle class American.