Everything is overvalued in the market !!!!

Blame the Robinhood dumb money and loose fiscal policy

@JuiceBox69 “…can some one help Me understand?”

Don’t expect that to happen anytime soon but while you’re waiting, keep your eyes on the skies and watch for flying pigs.

@JuiceBox69

Allow me to answer your questions:

Everything Is Overvalued In The Market !!!!
With exception to the banking and oil industries
Why is this can some one help Me understand?

Because the stock market is rigged.

Why isnt it sky high like the other sectors ?

Because the stock market is rigged.

Is it just time to buy these ?

If you don’t have the “inside information” it’s up to you to take the risk.

Or is their and underlying issue that actually makers these a trap ?

The underlying issues is that:

The market is rigged and only “insiders” know information before anyone else.

The “insiders” make the money without any risk at all and the non insiders fall into the trap of taking the risks.

Think of casinos in Las Vegas, the “House” has the advantage so most gamblers loose.

Of course a few gamblers win a few times, this make some people fall in the gambling trap.

I got 'inside information' from the President that the country would come back. So far I have doubled my risky investment in strip clubs (RICK), cruse lines (CLL) and gambling (MGM & PENN). I am loving the 'trap'.

It's been the slogan longer than that. Juice, the Fed basically just said they will not let any company fail, to protect us, the workers. Pure horseshit. He is just in too deep and has to keep the bubble going.

Imagine a shitty company, dunno like Party City or something. In a healthy market, if they go bankrupt their assets are sold off and if there is a market demand, a new better company will emerge from the ashes. Any employees that lost their job can get another retail job somewhere.

In a desperate Trump/JPow market, If Party City was at risk of bankruptcy, they could offer like....30 year 10% bonds. Pure junk. Nobody would buy them except...enter the Fed. They will gladly step in, add the dogshit bonds to their (7+ trillion) asset list and keep Party City afloat. So the employees can keep their jobs. Jobs that pay less than unemployment (which is another huge fucking issue).

Basically, stocks really do only go up right now until they don't and it will be devastating and quick. I am far too dumb to time that and honestly am in cash right now cause the market is giving bipolar signals.

TLDR: SPY Jan/21 340c, SPY Jan/21 240p who the fuck knows

Also oil is not a trap, it's just a longer term play and retail is not about the slow money right now. They are balls deep in risky short term stuff. Find a company that pegs their performance on WTI being around $45 a barrel and you'll make a lot of money. Oil demand WILL go back up

The fed is spiking the punch for now so the market is gonna party and have a good time, if you can't beat'm, join them - at some point the Fed will take the punch-bowl away and the hangover will come - but; these are unprecedented times and many argue the punch-bowl is needs spiking.

Thanks guys lol.. That was enough to influence me to cash out all my profits and sit on my piles of cash waiting for the massive drop

“That was enough to influence me to cash out all my profits”

That might work this time. Or, it might not. But, if you make this a habit, you will under perform the market over the long haul.

Timing the market is a bit like playing a slot machine with bad odds. You’ll sometimes win but mostly lose. You’ll remember and brag about the wins. You’ll delete the losses from your memory bank.

Careful Juice that was my mindset in March/April. Lost out on a lot of good gains but could have easily gone the other way during that period

The market is up about 40% from its recent bottom. If someone in their 50s or 60s missed out on that run up, it has a huge impact on their retirement plans. And, all that happened in a matter of weeks.

@JuiceBox69

If you can buy some rental property, the interest rates are low and you can have the property paid by the renters and have positive cash flow with the right amount of down payment.

There is going to be a devaluation, because of the enormous amount of money the government is printing.

Good luck on your investments.

Yes it is and will crash further if we can’t get Covid off the field. Gold, Silver, rare coins bullish right now.

Good ideas guys

Yeah I've been giving that some major consideration as I do have a long term mind set to this.. I basically use Warren Buffet's system.

But Buffet himself is pulling out and holding cash so it got me all WTF.

I do like the idea of added another rental to my portfolios

Current have 2 $285,000 homes.. Could def added a 3rd with recent profits

30% of Americans missed their mortgage payment at the beginning of the month. Careful where you buy or you might be buying bags.

Yeah I saw that as well.. Fun times we live in lol

Good opportunities just need to be smart about it

More than ever, it’s location, location, location. There is massive disruption going on and not all communities will be treated the same.
I wouldn’t buy real estate in a major urban area right now. But, oddly, the Minneapolis real estate market is booming right now with tight inventory. I can’t explain it.

Juice just make sure you are properly invested in Smith and Wesson before fucking with Standard and Poors.

Lol amen brother

From the N.Y. Post. Why we had a two month recession rather than a 10 year depression:

"The president and his economic team (chiefly Larry Kudlow and Steve Mnuchin) gave us historically low unemployment pre-pandemic. They also gave the economy a fighting chance to survive an economic shock not seen since the Depression.

"They did it by doing the exact opposite of what Herbert Hoover and then FDR did (and Joe Biden would do if he’s elected): Instead of raising taxes, Team Trump cut them. Instead of burdening businesses with regulations, Trump continues to push for fewer regs. Instead of engaging in a trade war, Trump has ­admirably avoided one, particularly with China.

"And instead of raising interest rates, as the Fed did following the 1929 crash to clamp down on speculation, Fed chief Jay Powell is slashing them left and right, encouraging speculation that has the stock market recovering nearly to the place it was pre-corona."

#TrumpVotersMatter

Of course Trump wasn’t looking for a trade war with China he wanted their help to win the election
SMH

Seems there's a good amount of dry-powder that could potentially fuel the stock market in the future (unless a lot of this $$$ remains permanently spooked):

"... There’s nearly $5 trillion parked in money markets as many investors are still afraid of stocks ..."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/theres-n…

@Papi if that cash sits on the sidelines too long it could trigger an increase of inflation which will devalue the cash on the sidelines

#MoneyMarketFundsMatter

And yet the market keeps going higher. Markets can stay irrational longer than an investor can stay solvent. That’s why you don’t try to time the markets. Stick with a level
Of risk you can handle throughout either bad markets or good markets, and ride it out!

Some solid advice guys

Either way one has to make a rough choice and ride it out

Or, maybe the market is rational and it’s the TV analysts who are mistaken. The market reflects what the billionaires are willing to pay with their own money. Public perception is framed by the guys on TV with really good haircuts. I know which I trust.

It will all crash further as Forest fire of covid spreads. A tidal wave of bankruptcies and cc defaults coming. Sell now or get less later.

Lol

Basically

Juice, you forgot to add airlines to your short list of stocks that may not be overvalued.

Banks and oil suffer from the same condition, which is a certain reliance upon the health of the economy. Now as we all know from several economic cycles, these things will eventually come back, but the big question now is how long it will take. With all the market volatility plays available right now many don't have the patience for a multi-year buy and hold strategy.

BAC is a good example. I bought it for under 10 in 2012 when the market price nosedived for the second time in 3 years. I sold it well north of $20, but I had to wait over 4 years. In hindsight I wish that I had held onto it for longer as it got stronger with its continued expansion into securities trading and underwriting.

RCI, OTOH, is a great example of the numerous market volatility plays available. It craps out and then shoots up with great frequency. From watching its absurd trading patterns over the years I have always suspected that there is someone behind the scenes propping the price up when it goes too low. So I buy it when it craps out and sell it shortly after the price inexplicably rises by a double digit % within a couple of weeks. my last 2 week turnaround netted me almost 14%. Rinse, repeat.

In this environment, keeping a % of the portfolio for LT value plays and a % in volatility plays is working out quite well. But as you rightly point out, the value plays are slim pickins.

No such thing as an overvalued market. Sure the price/earnings can become more and more dogshit, but that just shows it's only overvalued relative to history. We are still quite undervalued compared to 2001 lmao.

The big secret, is stocks are no different than widgets. If there are only 186M shares of Tesla, the supply is limited. If you go back to econ 101 and draw a supply/demand curve, what happens when the supply remains the same but the demand increases? Price has to increase. Doesn't mean anything else happened to make the widget, er share, more valuable except increased demand. Reverse when stocks/goods go down. People are trying to put their money into stuff that pays quick. Chasing the dragon after the easy returns of the last few months.

Also you sure you want to invest in banks when the gov does not allow them to foreclose on the mortgages they legally own? Or zero percent interest rates? How the fuck are they supposed to make $$ these days? Big trading departments like GS and JPM?

Banks are getting tremendous commissions on all of those PPP funds they've disbursed, that along with closing branches reducing retail hours, when this pandemic is over the banks will have received close to 12% of the funds disbursed by congress through all of this boondoggle.

Buy insurance stocks. The risk going forward with tighter underwriting and the need for the consumers to get coverage (demand) will only go up. Since insurance companies will be demanding higher premiums with less risk of payouts, profits will soar the next few years, especially if you chose ones seating in property and casualty. My call is Universal Insurance, or if you don’t want to do any homework that the ETF insurance group IAK.