Business Travel: V, Fish Hook, Other Recovery ?

Based on the possibility of a second wave - I’m thinking there will be a squiggly recovery. It would be great if we hit a trough - and the recovery turns out to be a V - but it’s too early to determine.

Look at the markets, spiking as states reopen, then dropping as infections increase. There is significant uncertainty, and the markets don’t like uncertainty.

The methods of air travel pre-covid, involved packing as many people in planes as possible. Until there is a vaccine, or an effective treatment, that can’t be done. So, air travel will remain changed for awhile. Folks don’t have great faith in airlines looking out for their safety, so I’m not surprised they aren’t flying.

I hope the situation improves. I hope we don’t encounter a brutal second wave. I also hope a treatment is found to decrease the miserable nature of this virus. But, for now, my company has stopped business travel, and they will not allow a return to the offices until 2021.

@OP with regard to your original question I don’t expect to see the travel return to the levels you spoke of until one of two things happen

1. A vaccination that’s safe and effective is developed
2. a therapy that makes this infection no longer a severe danger

And I’d bet it will be 2 years or more before flying For travel becomes What it was

I have a feeling covid 19 will be a non issue by august.

We'll be dealing with Yellowstone erupting

Yet the air fares are through the roof to most destinations. The airlines plead poverty and want fed bailout, while their business model continues to be in a monopoly vacuum. Raise prices, charge for the air you breath, and no service. NO MORE FED SUBSIDIES !!!!! Cut the fat, cut the bonuses, and compete to staff in business !!!!

The trend line looks like it may be a while until air travel is "normal". That said I know a lot of people from LA drove down to San Diego last weekend because our beaches are open.

I also hear RV sales are soaring.

I've flown numerous times over the past 5 weeks and have been to or through 10 or 11 states.

Each area is different but noticed that the South is more wide open. I typically wear a mask until I see how the area is and wear it on planes, trains and busses around the airport.

In and around the airports, probably less than half the stuff is open. I'll be traveling for work for the rest of the year. Even if some stuff shuts down again, I'll probably still travel because of the nature of my job.

I try to be practical but don't want to live my life in fear forever. It feels good to be a productive member of society again. I was paid during the lockdown but was climbing the walls

Southwest is keeping middle rows empty until the end of July but American flights are usually at least 90% full right now. Airports are basically empty with the exception of Charlotte. It was packed when I landed there a couple weeks ago.

I’m trying to figure out what sort of kink Founder is referring to with his Yellowstone erupting euphemism?

Most things are pretty-much virus-dependent - hard to say exactly what the economy or most-things related will be like in the future as long as the virus continues to be a threat, and continues to be unpredictable (some areas spiking, some areas holding steady, some areas not affected much).

I "assume" things will get back to normal fairly-quickly once the threat of the virus can be more contained (starts weakening/spreading on its own; or there's treatment; or there's a vaccine; etc) - pretty-much everyone wants to get back to life as it was pre-Covid and I assume there's a good amount of pent-up demand for traveling, vacations, letting-off-steam - I'm not one to constantly socialize/party but I do like having the option of a change-of-scenery from time to time and if Covid was not an issue tomorrow it would not be long b/f I took a little trip (minor vacation) for a change-of-scenery and a little getaway from the same-old same-old.

w.r.t. air-travel, and more specifically business-travel, I assume once the virus-threat diminishes that most of that will come back - yes the lockdown forced many things to be done virtually but IDK how much of that will stick post-Covid and IDK how ready we are at the current-time to significantly change to mostly-virtual vs physical - e.g. yeah telemedicine may have its advantages/efficiencies, but for the most-part I think most folks rather talk to a doc f2f and be examined f2f vs virtually; and the same may apply to other types of services.

The economy was doing well pre-Covid and has done better than expected thru Covid - I think things are mostly in place to "get back at it" per se and for the economy to come back strong if the virus is not in the way - but the longer the virus keeps being in the way, yeah likely the harder/longer it will be to get things back to full-speed; absent of the virus-threat I see most things getting back close to full-strength in the short vs long term, with some exceptions perhaps like cruise-travel that seem to be disproportionately affected w.r.t. outbreaks.

The economy was wobbly pre covid

IMO it will be at least sometime in 2021 and more likely approaching 2022.

I haven't traveled since February and it is unclear when I will be doing so again. The companies I do business, almost all in big blue states, with are still running their offices mostly remotely. For paper pushers like me, there is very little that cannot be done remotely when push comes to shove.

I think that everyone is holding their breath right now to see how the Fall shakes out. If there is a resurgence as the weather cools down, then a good chunk of 2021 could be a bust for travelers. If things continue to trend better at that time, then I see travel picking up earlier in 2021.

This morning AA said that they gained 10% over last month last month the airlines were off by 85% so this brings them to 75% of last years revenues, it’s going to be a long slog not going to be very good for airline revenues for a long time to come I stand by my guess of a year or more

I have businesses in several states and have continued to travel throughout this mess. I’m fairly comfortable flying because I’m low risk but it has basically eliminated me being able to visit my almost 100 year old grandfather and parents. I don’t want to risk bringing that shit home to them since they are high risk. I think it will be at least until next year before business trips return to normal. While I have done some much needed trips to my various sites, visits to customers and business partners have completely ceased. I don’t see those returning to normal anytime soon as even as businesses and customers I deal with are slowly reopening, none of them are eager to invite people from outside entities like me to meet in person.

I was on the first available flight after 9/11 and transited through STL. It seemed that I was the only person in the whole damn terminal except for the skycap who was almost begging me to let him carry my very small bag. I have a dislike for skycaps but I felt really sorry for this guy who like many suddenly had no source of income. I tipped him $20 to carry what amounted to no more than a single change of clothes to my connecting gate which was less than 50 yards away. The airlines adapted and recovered remarkably quickly and that’s what I expect will happen again.

I’m strictly a leisure traveler these days and most of my travel is international and I’m a Platinum member with Delta (oh crap I sound like @Player11). Anyways, I have zero trepidation about getting on a plane but that is not the challenge. Internationally virtually everywhere is closed to everyone except for citizens returning home. Domestically, the challenges are nearly as bad. Many routes have been cancelled, many destinations require a 14 day quarantine (Alaska and Hawaii for example), many places are still locked down, etc, etc, etc. So the problem for me is not getting on a plane but that anywhere I may want to go is a challenge of what awaits upon deplaning at the destination. Are the hotels open? Restaurants? The bars? Rental cars?

The airlines will be back but they may look different. Fewer routes and flights? Higher airfares? Some of that I’ll find beneficial and some not so good. Timing will depend on the virus but they will be back. At least the survivors will be. Look for some to go under and some to be “forced” to pick up the vacated service. Big challenges for a complicated industry lay ahead.

I have always been able to do my job entirely remotely. But it's just easier to interact with customer in person, better communication, etc. So, I traveled. Every other week for several years. Until March. Been home, work from home, since. Haven't been home this long in a while. The planes don't bother me as much as the airports. I know how much modern planes cycle air in and out. Probably safer than a trip to the grocery store. But once I get somewhere, WTF do I eat!!! I guess take out is, and always was, available. But I almost always avoided that, every time I get back to my room it seemed like I missed take a fork, ketchup, something... And then the room would smell like greasy shit for the rest of the night. I'll probably loose all the frequent customer status I had, and re evaluate that. Was constantly using an airline that I knew had second best service in my home city because of "status" built up years ago flying multiple trips to a far off small city only they had decent service to, and I haven't been to since 2018... Similar thing with hotels... And assume my Hertz presidents club is worthless now. All my travel was expensed, and company policy was cheap. But regularly got complementary upgrades. Getting back to it, I'm thinking that's going to be thin and traveling going to return to the standard regular coach seat and compact car suckage that was when I started this job. Not looking forward to that. Big picture, I know a lot of people who traveled like I did. Whole company is still expected to minimize travel, comply with any local restrictions. And I know it's not just my company, customers that I talk to have travel freezes in place, friends in other industries also. When I did travel, I averaged about $1500 a week expenses. Air, hotel, car, meals, gas.... All not my money. Money I spent having an economic impact on those industries that's just missing now. I'm still work from home, making same as always. Saving more, not paying for any pussy (that came outa my own pocket). Internationally... Pfft... Is that country open, what are there restrictions... I work for a foreign country, travel is banned to HQ, county is sealed. Other countries, well, not only comply with their requirement but just not wanted to be stuck if our dear leader actually does decide to ban travel, in a real and effective manner to stop a pandemic, not just some racists anti chinese shit, avoiding the chaos of him miscommunicating a total ban, that actually doesn't apply to US citizens... It's starting into a nice time of the year to just stay home. I always miss being home when the wild berries are ripe.

Most major tech companies have nearly totally shutdown travel so they are saving millions if not more; but it remains to be seen how effective employees will be when they cannot wine and dine prospects.Relationships are still very important in big business. I do know of many very large companies that have not just banned travel for employees but additionally have banned all face to face meetings, so even their suppliers are effectively prohibited from traveling to see them.

We've reallocated the budget for travel for the rest of fiscal 2020 to other things, mostly other COVID related. So for us it won't be till October before we really do any significant non-essential travel.

Early vaccine releases are the most dangerous, especially with something as rushed as the Covid vax. I won't be first in line for that thing. I want to watch its safety record for at least a couple years.

I believe I heard AstraZeneca has started, or will soon start, phase-3 testing of its Covid-19 vaccine - several European countries seem to have already placed orders in the millions for it - it's believed it will be available b/f the end of the year - if it proves to be successful the next issue would be distribution and trying to immunize billions of people (likely a similar bottleneck as to testing, etc, or worse).

Forget what the media is telling you. They are not trying to educate you. They only want ratings and scaring you gets better ratings than the truth. Flying is very safe. I did a round trip in May and I just got back from another round trip. The plane was Full both directions for my June trip ( although the middle seats were empty on purpose).

We already know that the death rate for the bat flu was less than 1%. Now we have medications that will cut that in half. People under 65 should have no fear of this stupid bat flu. Get out there and enjoy your lives again. And stop watching CNN. If you are over 65 and have diabetes or high blood pressure, then stay at home. The vaccine will be here in the Fall.

^ And don't try to tell me the death rate is 6%. Over 80% of all people that get it are asymptatic. That is the only reason that positive results are going up now. We are testing the asymptatic people now.

I always wondered where Fish Hook was, so I asked the train conductor. Turns out that it's at the end of the line.....😖😉

Thanks for the responses, fellas. Curious how long airlines will be blocking the middle seats. (One article mentioned Delta plans to do that through September.) So my earlier post about Southwest returning to full schedule by end of year may have been unintentionally misleading. Same old number of aircraft flying, but maybe not same number of available seats. Seat blocking raises the question of how 1st Class seats, or regional jet seats are managed. Block off half the seats ? ( 2 + 2 configuration). Two key drivers in the business travel segment would be willingness of companies to hold conventions, or if latest pandemic has caused businesses to become completely ( or at least very) enamored with video conferencing as a way to conduct business.

I work for a large corporation and, just today, an email was sent saying that high level approval for travel is no longer necessary. While non-essential travel is discouraged, they are only asking that other means of doing business are considered.

I stayed in lockdown for 2 months but was never prohibited from travel if needed.

Traveling is a hassle right now and it might be a while before things return to pre-Covid days but it is starting to pick up. Last night I was in a hotel that had a restaurant open until 10pm. That was a first since I started traveling again. It was also a blessing because I was in a city that is experiencing a high level of "social justice demonstrations" aka rioting.