Sweden
mark94
Arizona
Sweden is unique in deciding against locking down. They tried to isolate those over 60, banned large gatherings, but otherwise let life go on. This was a conscious decision to allow young, healthy people to get infected, leading to herd immunity.
How has it worked out so far ? They estimate that 20% of the population has been infected. They expect that to reach 60% ( herd immunity ) in a few weeks. With about 1,600 dead, the death rate is about 4x Norway and Finland, partly because the virus found its way to nursing homes. Of course, as the number of infections triples, the death rate will also grow.
Projecting a month ahead, they may have 10,000 more deaths than they would have with a lockdown, but the population will be immune and the economy will be intact.
How has it worked out so far ? They estimate that 20% of the population has been infected. They expect that to reach 60% ( herd immunity ) in a few weeks. With about 1,600 dead, the death rate is about 4x Norway and Finland, partly because the virus found its way to nursing homes. Of course, as the number of infections triples, the death rate will also grow.
Projecting a month ahead, they may have 10,000 more deaths than they would have with a lockdown, but the population will be immune and the economy will be intact.
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The US will hit 46K and possibly 47K today. We are barely keeping the new case rate at a steady 30-40K a day. Yesterday was the highest number of new cases so far at nearly 40K. Expect 60K dead by the end of the month or so. Another 25K-30K in May. That 100K low estimate now seems low.
Better still, they did it while keeping their economy intact. The Swedish people have seen what other countries have endured and have overwhelmingly approved this approach. In fact, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven has never been more popular as he is now.
So Sweden tried a different tack with Coronavirus. Maybe it will work for them and maybe it won't. What was not addressed, and what I would very much like to know, is how their socialist healthcare system coped. Were there enough beds? Were there enough practitioners? Were there enough ventilators, dialysis machines, PPE, and test kits? It seems like they were going to let anyone and everyone get sick, and let fate decide who lived and who died. That is how it works in a communist society. That is why America will never be Communist, Socialist, Marxist or whatever BS label you want to apply to it.
Having said that, I agree with the Swedes. I'm still Team Thanos. We could do with a several million fewer Americans, and a few billion fewer people glabally. This pandemic is a missed opportunity to weed out the weak and decrease the excess population. You may be horrified by that, but it does not change the fact that I am right.
Fake news, but I think this is the vision of some politicians.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Click on the US in the list of countries. extreme bottom right, hover on the yellow bar graph. the last entry is 4/21 with 39,500 new cases. You can see for the entire month of April a range of about 26K to 33K new cases a day. looks pretty flat to me. The graph shows the peak on 4/9 with 34,100 cases, but there is a day with over 32K cases as recent as 4/18. There might be a slight downward slope, but that is reaching.
Also, death rate lags new case rate by 2-3 weeks.
The US is at 45,894. counting today, there are 9 days left in the month. Using your 1500 figure, that is 13,500 more added to 45,894 = 59,394. My 60,000 by the end of April was SUCH an exaggeration!
Wow! What if you are part of the decrease of excess population?
There's a few things to keep in mind about the Swedish model:
- Over 40% of people live alone. It has some of the lowest amounts of inter-generational households in the world
- An enormous number of Swedes are working from home, over 90% in major companies, a huge amount in general (lost the cite, sorry! will find it)
- There is near-universal access to Sweden's excellent healthcare system
- There is a strong, cultural sense of civic duty, and confidence in the state. Swedes have high confidence in their politicians, who in turn have high confidence in citizens. The government has given suggestions, not orders, and based on that alone, public transit saw ridership fall 50%+. In short, part of what Sweden has done is replaced legislated lockdowns with government suggestions with voluntary guidelines that civic-minded Swedish citizens just tend to follow.
Literally none of those things apply in the US (particularly the last one, which is arguably the MOST important), or any other country in Europe, for that matter, so there's no reason to think any other country would get the same results. Even with the unique Swedish cultural context, the death rate in Sweden per person is 5x and 9x, respectively, the most comparable countries; Norway and Finland, which both have lockdowns.
Anyway, just a caution on projecting Swedish methods on the US, or any other country except Sweden. No chance Americans voluntarily reproduce what the Swedes do.
This is an incredible amount of ingrained "civil obedience" that is not reproducible here. To whatever extent Sweden is successful -- and the jury is still out -- nothing close to these numbers are likely achievable anywhere else
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru…
If one scrolls halfway down the page one can see an easy-to-read bargraph of new-cases and total-deaths - it shows a peak of new-cases of 34.4k on 4/4 and slightly going down from there to ~26k on 4/21 (yesterday) - this goes inline w/ the reports that the curve has been flattening vs new cases increasing (at least w.r.t. new-cases).
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that more than a month after schoolyards fell silent, restaurant tables and bar stools emptied, and waves from a safe distance replaced hugs and handshakes, the country largely believes restrictions on social interaction to curb the spread of the virus are appropriate.
Only 12% of Americans say the measures where they live go too far. About twice as many people, 26%, believe the limits don’t go far enough. The majority of Americans — 61% — feel the steps taken by government officials to prevent infections of COVID-19 in their area are about right."
Anyway, popular sentiment isn't indicative of the right thing to do -- majorities are often wrong. Just wanted to correct the mis-impression that vast hordes of Americans are ready to rebel, despite over-emphasis by the press of small vocal pockets.
BTW, I'm among those who think we have to start opening things up judiciously... we've squandered the time we bought, but can't wait much longer, the effect on the economy has been horrific. I am happy that the states leading the way are not my state.
Not just "divided".
Substantial percentage distrust the government and think, to be brief, that the government is for some reason out to get them. (i.e. the deep state).
Similar sized percentage thinks the head of the government is just stupid and corrupt, and will only act in his own self interest.
Differences aside, no one trusts it.
You might want to researcher the history and current relationships between Taiwan and China. It might be only 80 miles (close enough for artillery, at low tide, which the Chinese used to regularly fire as a reminder, might still do so), and almost everyone in Taiwan is ethnically Chinese, and from China... But, I'm not sure they allow direct flights. Or even allow each other's citizens to visit AT ALL? Not a lot of trust there...
That said the point that you are trying to make, that Sweden is not the USA and what works in Sweden won’t necessarily work in the USA, is completely valid. Now I suggest that the same logic needs to be applied within the USA. Rapid City South Dakota is not New York City and Needles California is not San Francisco California. Different approaches dependent on individual circumstances should be the norm and not an either or choice of “open up” or “lockdown”.
There will be trade-offs no matter what course is taken. That is an inarguable fact. Mistakes have been and will be made. No way around that (I read today that idiot De Blasio wants to have a parade to honor healthcare workers as soon as this is “over””. Can you say second wave, as if he doesn’t have enough blood on his hands already, smh). What can’t go on without profound ramifications is shutting down the economy. Modern life is too dependent on what is an efficient system (from farm to table) but that system is also very fragile and will break down if something isn’t done. The clock is ticking.
What I will l suggest is that all of the numbers and polls being thrown around should honestly be set aside for “proving” anything. The numbers are KNOWN to be wrong if only because they aren’t accurate for understandable reasons or that they are often being manipulated for malicious reasons. This “crisis” has been hyped and is being used by many from all sides for their personal agendas. Yes people have and will die from the virus but people die every day from many things. People can hide under their beds if they like but in the end nobody gets out alive.
And if anyone thinks I’m being heartless, well FUCK YOU. Right now there is a young 26 year old doctor on a ventilator fighting for her life. I’ve live 61 years and if it were possible I would willingly take her place so she could live the long healthy and happy life that she should but that’s not the way things work.
Turn off the TV and computer and go get some fresh air. That’s my advice to everyone.
Agree completely. The mistakes that were done are done
"That said the point that you are trying to make, that Sweden is not the USA and what works in Sweden won’t necessarily work in the USA, is completely valid. Now I suggest that the same logic needs to be applied within the USA. Rapid City South Dakota is not New York City and Needles California is not San Francisco California. "
I think now -- not a month+ ago when it was recklessly being floated -- is the right time to cautiously go about that. And, that's what's happening, after all. I'm fine -- hell, THRILLED -- Florida is going first. You won't hear me complain about that.
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the dark haired German girl is my fav and those shower pics.... nice.
Oh sorry I guess we were supposed to talk about Sweden. Hmmmmmm Nice blondes
There's a lot of grey area in between. 3-4 weeks of being sick, very sick from the stories I've read, bad chills, hallucinations, no strength, etc. That's probably 50% or more of the people that are "infected".
And then there's the 20% that are living through it, with scarring in there lungs and lasting impacts of decreased physical ability.
So, if 60% of get infected.... 30% or use are out of work for 3 weeks cause we can't get out of bed (ignoring the part about being contagious) and probably 10% of us end up with scarred lungs that leave us unable to walk up a flight of stairs without gasping for air.
And maybe we've reached the "herd immunity" state that drastically slows the spread. But it's still there, occasionally infecting a person here or there, maybe wiping out an assisted living facility every now and then. With people less likely to get a vaccine when it is available that'd be needed to total wipe it out.
UPDATE: Thank God she is off the ventilator and doing great. A full recovery is expected.
I've thought about this, too. The hope is before that can happen there will be a vaccine or herd immunity or some sort of treatment where it's not fatal.