Dead Cat Bounce / Don't try to Catch a Falling Knife

^^^^^ You know nothing that the fund managers do not already know.

Right now, maybe not even they can predict anything. But eventually things will stabilize and so they will always not more than you and know it sooner, so that your information will always be worthless.

SJG

Interesting stuff warrior. Actually my dad worked on Wall Street too to back in the 80’s. Lehman Brothers and later Merril Lynch. And actually was interviewed for Stratton Oakmont (Jordan Belforts firm) but wasn’t interested when it was explained to him it was a bullshit penny stock scheme. In hindsight he probably should’ve stayed doing that stuff as that man is still to this day busting his ass to make ends meet. He’s happy though so what the hell.

I work in a very technical part of this...industry. I would be insanely weary of thinking the bottom is anywhere near found.

it took over 350 TRADING DAYS to bottom out in 2008-2009. We are barely into whatever-this-is... Maybe? Who knows.

Fear and greed. Fear is stronger. 25 years as a Series 7 broker.

The issue in today’s market is where else does one put their cash to work? Seems like bond yields are forcing people to take on equities. Cash is king right now, but it won’t be for long. Look at it as a 15% discount on the market today compared to a month ago, bevause in a couple years the market will be higher and come back even stronger.

There’s so much uncertainty right now. That’s not good for stocks. It definitely seems that the markets don’t like uncertainty - and sadly that’s where the world is...

Off topic, but people also bounce. As a first semester freshman at umass I was on my way to the library one day when lo and behold a fellow student, who earlier in the day had returned to his dorm to find hios bag of weed stolen,. had painted an X on the sidewalk and walked out onto the 26th floor observation deck (last day for thisbeautiful spot); he then leaped. Missed the X and when he hit the ground he bounced 10-12 feet. Welcome to college........

Best fix the market could get right now is to contain this disease and end the spread, short term fixes like a payroll tax break aren’t the answer, the answer is to have the president do the right thing for a change go get himself tested, let him set an example to lead not be the lead fool.

Umm omg skibum

Stock should be a long term investment. Put your money in a diverse basket of companies. Keep it there, come hell or high water. In five years, it will have grown.

Or, delude yourself that you are smarter than the market. Jump in. Jump out. Change sectors. Buy an individual stock that your Uncle Mortie’s barber recommends. Brag to everyone about what a savvy investor you are. Then, wonder why you underperformed the market.

Yeah the future of America depends on Trump getting tested lol. Thats right lol; its all Trump's fault. get tested and everyone is cured.

I think that if Trump released his Tax Returns, it would end the Coronavirus.

It’s more and more looking like low intelligence to refuse to get tested, that stick your head in the sand thing, only works for a short while, you can be an ignorant fool as long as it doesn’t affect others, but the President has a responsibility to the entire country and yes if the President isn’t willing to set an example for the country, it is his fault so that’s on him, and anyone who enables him.

Sure Mark go to a trump rally and shake hands with as many as possible then put your hands on you face that will help the rest of us

I agree that the market has a ways to go, some of which may not be felt for months to come. With so many supply chain issues and everyone canceling travel, we are no doubt in for a number of shocks when companies report their next round of earnings.

25, is there a reason that you started trolling this thread with political posts? Isn't there a room for that?

There you go again RickiBoi keep trolling me you just don’t get it do you

Get tested lol. GTFO. I'm a republican and we work and don't get sick. We go clubbing for six hours on a Tuesday and make plans to fly to Colorado in two weeks to ski. Get tested lol. Ok snowflake.

25, jut shut up and save your Trump trolling for the political threads.

Back on topic, it took the markets over 4 months to reach a bottom from late 2007 into the first quarter of 2008. I don't know that this will be that bad, but I also don't believe that the markets have priced in all the earning surprises to come.

^ How about you shut up and kiss my ass you stupid fuckn troll

I’m a snow flake you are afraid to get tested but I’m the snowflake SMH

@warrior Just to make a valid point there was nothing about what I said that was trolling I simply stated an opinion that any normal person with actual understanding of how the market works then Mark94 interjected political stupidity into it by making a remark about POTUS showing his taxes I responded and then Dugan who never misses an opportunity to show the folks here what an asshole he is picked up the attack For the stupider people here Trump had a golden opportunity to show us, look I’ve come in contact with some folks that are infected and my test is negative calm down people, instead, it’s just more of the same stupidity I’ve come to the conclusion that Dugan is just sad always looking for a fight, doesn’t care a bit about anyone except for his own ego, decided to turn your thread into his own personal display of jack assert.

Back on topic of the thread, the market is going down but as always never listen to anyone saying “This time it’s different”. It’s never different and this is not the end of the world. The market will eventually recover and the normal signal that it’s near the bottom is when all the experts (fund managers, analysts, and talking heads) capitulate and say there is no hope.

Real damage has been and is being done well beyond Wall Street and right now it is disproportionately hitting those most vulnerable on the lower end of the economy - service workers (hotel maids, waitresses etc, etc). They are going to suffer from lack of business and are easily “let go”. I think it will also probably hit a few strippers where it hurts, in the purse.

Long term it will take quite a while to fully recover from this panic which the media is largely responsible IMO. But hey, they get to sell more newspapers and advance their agenda having yet another opportunity not to let a crisis go to waste.

On the positive side for TUSCL mongers I’d like to point out that after this week’s oil market turmoil the Mexican Peso has weakened by about 15% and is now 21.2 to 1 USD. So if you are headed to TJ your dollar will go further.

Longer term, I think a lot about our lives and economy will change as a result of this experience. The supply chain shift out of China will accelerate. Mexico and India will benefit. The cruise line industry won’t fully recover. International travel will decline. Online services will benefit. Home delivery of groceries. Amazon.

===> "Long term it will take quite a while to fully recover from this panic which the media is largely responsible IMO. But hey, they get to sell more newspapers and advance their agenda having yet another opportunity not to let a crisis go to waste."

All of this. As if all of the hoarding and travel cancellations weren't bad enough, now we have whole school systems shutting down. All of this for something that isn't much deadlier than the common flu. This media led hysteria is getting tiresome now.

I am not sick so I won't get tested. mark's Trump comment appeared to be humor to me. I am in a lot of cash now so the market isn't affecting me, but I feel bad for those who it is stomping on. This is the end of the cruise industry. Will this have an impact on illegals?

I find that Trump opponents lack a sense of humor. Trump is Hitler. Jokes are verboten. We’re all going to die and it’s the Orange Man’s fault.

^ I’ve been accused of many things many times but no one except a troll has ever accused me of not having a sense of humor.

25/mark: Here's a link to the politics room just in case you'd like to take the conversation about Trump over there:

tuscl.net

Trump is an existential threat to many on the left. They view themselves as more compassionate and more intelligent than people on the right. Their ego will not tolerate opposing viewpoints. That explains why their response to Trump is name calling. Moron. Sexist. Racist. Homophobe. Liar. They believe their superiority is self evident. They don’t need to prove it.

It also explains why their demeanor is angry, confrontational, and lacking in humor. Trump’s election, and re-election, calls into question their self view of superiority.

RickDugan: yeah, you’re right. I got swept up in the moment. Sorry about that.

The left believes diversity is everyone looking different but thinking exactly the same. Its why the left is comprised of failed groups who cannot compete. Groupthink never works.

Sad that seemingly intelligent people would have nothing better to think about than a ponzi stock market.

SJG

I've posted about raising cash and reducing stock exposure just based on the CAPE and price/earnings that are out-of-whack historically. Measure like the CAPE doesn't tell you exactly when to buy or sell, but it has a pretty good track record of predicting stock returns if the window is out to, say, 10 years or more. If it wasn't Coronavirus it would have something else. Even with the current sell-off stocks aren't a bargain -- at least not yet. The CAPE is a simple measure invented by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller and he writes about the psychology market bubbles.

A lot of this is luck but I'm guessing we're nowhere near a bottom in stocks.

Alan Blinder was out this morning with a common-sense WSJ article about the need for a massive increase of testing kits:

wsj.com

He writes about the best stimulus would be the knowledge about the extent of the epidemic. He also thinks the probability of a recession is more like 90% now and we already be in a recession.

TUSCL is always a clueless place for scientific literacy. Covid-19 is not the flu and the rest of you should be listening to MDs and epidemiologists who know what they're talking about. Epidemics like this grow exponentially and we're in the early stages. If we don't have policies that encourage social-distancing, something like half the population will get the virus. And if I had to guess, that is the end game: something like half the population gets the virus and epidemic subsides since half the population has developed an immunity.

In the US we are in the early stages, but we still do not know what to expect.

Local precautionary measures have been increased.

But we are in the Allergy and Flu season. So people cannot tell if they have Covid.

I guess that eventually everyone develops immunity. So slowing it down of course does help.

The sooner though that that ponzi stock market can crash the better.

No one who has put money into it is innocent. But the sooner it crashes the less the innocent people who lose jobs and businesses. This is why ponzi schemes are illegal, because they do hurt innocent people.

SJG

Hard to imagine right now, but the market will bounce back eventually. Keep the faith.

IF only there were some way to keep it down. But I do not know what that would be. It is just human nature.

SJG

True in 7 of 11 historical drops it took a year or so either way to regain, the loss; however, the last two took eight and six years respectively. Some of us won't be here then.

^^^^ Skibum609 wants to take as much money to the grave as he possibly can.

SJG

Ski, that's why folks at your advanced age are not supposed to be too heavily exposed to equities.

Skibum wants everyone at his funeral to know that he was not a loser.

SJG

@skibum you’ve now been called out as a decrepit old man and you’re younger than I am LOL

Well 25, he did say this:

===> "True in 7 of 11 historical drops it took a year or so either way to regain, the loss; however, the last two took eight and six years respectively. Some of us won't be here then."

Perhaps by "some of us' did you think that he was talking about you? 👍😉

When Obama came in it was at 6000. Lets hope it gets down that. And lets hope it does not go any higher above that then absolutely unavoidable.

SJG

Some of us will expire of natural causes others will die from ignorance I hope I die in my sleep peacefully, not gasping for breath because I listened to a bunch of politically motivated dummies instead paying heed to the medical experts and epidemiologists

^^^^^ You don't value money more than your life? Skibum fears being seen as a loser more than his death.

SJG

^ How would you know that SJG I have met Ski in person you have no real idea, he’s actually a decent gentleman And a generous one as well.

Well that is not the way he comes across on this board. And I for one would never have any interest in meeting such a creep.

SJG

===> "I hope I die in my sleep peacefully, not gasping for breath because I listened to a bunch of politically motivated dummies instead paying heed to the medical experts and epidemiologists"

Funny, I hope that I die with a Jack on the rocks in one hand and a stripper's ass in the other. But that's just me. ;)

With that said though, you should be afraid. You're old. Much like the flu, this virus is much more fatal to you than it is to younger folk. If I were you I might bunker down until mid-April.

But this thread wasn't about 25's chances of dying. It was a discussion about the stock market, at least until you got here.

25 was the one who introduced age and life expectancy talk.

Stock Market speculation is not logical. The problems start when people try to act like it is, rather than just admitting that it is a serious vice and waste of money.

SJG

^ No actually skibum did that

Some of us won't be here then.< scroll up a few lines

This has been a breathtaking fall and much worse than I expected.

When Obama entered office the dow was well over 13,000 you ignorant lying sack of shit SJG. Further, SJG as you are without value as a human being, the fact you think I am the loser and not you is actually a wonderful compliment. If you hate me, it means there's nothing wrong with me. As far as age? Why is older decrepit? I stil ski double black bumps and trees; I walk and carry my clubs; I lifet 3-4 times a week and I don't get the impression that more than a few of you have a life that includes as much physical activity as mine. Why are the young today so afraid of the inevitable fact that unless you die young; you'll age. Its folks who want to pretend they are young that age badly; not those of us who accept and enjoy it. I have been out of the market, except for maybe 10-20% for awhile, so this fall means I am intellectually curious as I enjoy my .05% interest rate. The lack of a sense of humor in many of you will kill you long before you're old anyway.

This has been an invigorating deflation.

If only it could stay down, but I realistically do not expect that, not until pre-Reagan taxation is restored.

SJG