Hillary, Trump , or Bloomberg?
I'm starting to think Hillary in a tossup election.
I found it amusing tonight to hear Hillary sound like me when describing Sanders.
My favorite choice though is none of the above. I do give Trump almost 50/50 odds though.
You?
Not Bloomberg, of course. He's not even running. I'm watching Super Tuesday returns as I type this, and it certainly appears that Clinton and Trump will be the nominees. With a choice like that, no one wins. If I had to predict a winner, I would choose Hillary, not because Trump is an unprincipled quasi-fascist buffoon (that hasn't stopped him in the GOP primaries) but because there are about 18 states with something like 240 electoral votes that have voted Democrat in at least 5 of the last 6 elections. The Democrats have somehow managed to erect an Electoral College wall that is almost insurmountable to any Republican these days.
My conclusion: Vote Libertarian!
Bloomberg said he'll decide by next week whether he's running or not, but it's definitely a long shot at this point.
It seems that even the Republicans in the event of a Clinton-Trump match-up, are going to vote Democratic, this stuff is getting funnier by the day. But no matter what happens the country will survive of that I am sure.
I predict the republic will survive.
I think Trump will beat Hillary. It is a tough match up for her. But I admit there are many unknowns that could radically change the course of the election either way.
If Trump wins, he'll probably vacation at one of his Trump golf courses or Trump casinos, instead of Camp David, just for the free advertising.
At this point the only way Trump loses the nomination is a brokered convention. Hillary basically has the Democratic nomination sewn up. I can't see her losing to Trump. He'd be a disaster, and possibly give even the House to the Democrats
@MrDeuce
The Democrats Republicans have somehow managed to erect an Electoral College wall that is almost insurmountable to any Republican these days.
FTFY
To James-- With the Republican party falling apart who could possibly act as a broker, I hate to say this but Trump practically for better or worse, owns the decomposing carcass of the GOP, at this point. I don't see the Republican party being around for another cycle in this form.
Vote Cthulu. Don't settle for a lesser evil.
The idea that the Republican party was going to disappear first appeared during the Bush Presidency, so the idea it will disappear now is a wet dream of the ignorant. I have hated Donald Trump my whole life to the e xtent that when he owned casinos in AC I wouldn't even walk through one to get to the boardwalk. Rather walk through the hood. having said that; as a hard working, tax paying, white, heterosexual male, I would vote for Joe Stalin before a Democrat. Demcorats are the party of the rats known as illegals, black lies matter, transgendered fuck ups and on and on. If Hillary wins I will just declare less income to make up for what the left steals from me to give to the vermin they rely on for votes.
"Demcorats are the party of the rats known as illegals, black lies matter, transgendered fuck ups and on and on."
That transcends ignorant, into downright hateful.
Anyway, I feel kind of bad for Bernie, because he seems like the most genuine candidate this election by far, but he won't beat Hillary.
If it comes downs to Hillary vs Trump (the GOP is more a joke now than ever), Hillary is the obvious winner if we're being objective here.
Clinton in the biggest landslide in decades. I doubt he'll win even a single state. Not that I like Hillary; I'll be holding my nose when I vote for her, but Trump is too fascist for my taste. The way he threatens everyone who disagrees with him is scary; imagine if he has the FBI at his disposal!
If Hilda-Beast gets in life as we know it will end. She is a lawless criminal who murders or openly kills anyone who dares to speak against her.(Vince Foster and Benghazi). Why do you think Bill has not kicked her to the curb. He is afraid of her! If you think Barry is corrupt just wait. She makes Capone and Gotti look like amateurs!
She and her cronies want to get the world into another war so they can consolidate their power. The absolute worst thing that can happen is for congress to agree to declare "war" on ISIS because they suspend all rights and would allow whoever is president to jail all political opponents. Witness what FDR did to the Japanese-Americans and what Wilson did to German Americans in WW1. With a declaration of war all rights including Habius Corpus (LE must formally and publicly charge you or let you go) are suspended. I am not particularly a fan of Trump but the vitriol against him by the party elite on both sides is because they fear he will be able to run things with his people and leave them out in the cold where they belong. DC is the ultimate PFP place, it is just like the Eddy Murphy movie 'The Distinguished Gentleman' where a con man cons his way to congress and find congress is full of corrupt con-men only out for themselves who are willing to lie, cheat, steal, rape, slander, and kill to keep their power. That is DC. Some go to DC with good intentions only to be water-boarded with the sewage that is DC politics and they either succumb to the slime or leave before they lose their soul.
Again we may be faced with the lesser of two evils when we vote.
I do think that Trump will not give a shit about those that want to dictate morality and leave it on a local level while Hilda-Beast will use that issue to political ends (pandering to her splinter groups to keep the country divided) Her motto "Hate and Castrate"
Clinton. Fuck trump.
The question is who will win, and anyone looking objectively would be hard pressed to diagram a road to success for Trump. He has the cracker vote and the old angry white man vote, that's about it. Ethnics will vote Democratic as always, and young people will support Hillary.
I think if the GOP isn't careful, they will lose the senate as well.
Let's look at qualifications:
Hillary:
Liar
Murderer
Incomplete Senate term
Former first lady
Disastrous term as Sec of State...rise of ISIS
Does not know the difference between the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence
Does not know or care about the Bill of Rights
Never held a job
Sells influence to hostile foreign countries for personal gain
Trump: Asshole Successful businessman employing tens of thousands Tells special interests here is a quarter call someone that cares Asshole
^you forgot racist, sexist, bigot, liar, arrogant and immature.
To skibum- I don't think the Republican party is going to disappear, I believe it will change its shape, at this point the party is controlled by the isolationist, racist extremists who are a bunch of xenophobes and refuse the idea of science and human progress, I fear these types, they want to behave like the Islamists that we are having problems with and set civilization back several hundred years.
Tiredtraveler: Everything you list has nothing to do with whether people will vote for either candidate. Haven't you notoiced that Trump is popular no matter what he says? It's all a cult of personality.
Personlly, I like Sanders the best but I understand why he scares conservatives. But his brand of socialism doesn't even come close to FDR or Nixon so the reality is that he's not very scary at all.
Clinton is a fiscal conservative, and will continue many of the policies of Obama except in foreign policy, where she will repeat the mistakes of W by stressing regime change through use of the military. Economically she will do as little as possible which has always been the GOP mantra, and rightly so if growing the economy trumps the environment and Wall Street abuse in one's mind as a moral 'good'. as a result she will not propose as many regulations on Wall Street or the environment as Obama did and we will see income inequality grow even more than under Obama. (Sometimes I wonder why conservatives hate her since outside of abortion and gay rights, most of her policies are out of the GOP playbook. Oh...she's a woman...is that it?)
Trump...well no one knows do they. He used to be a Democratic liberal; to the left of Obama even. Times have changed so what he does is anybody's guess. He certainly will use the FBI and to a lesser extent the CIA as his own personal secret police. He will issue executive orders as his primary tool of governing like Obama has. He admits he will expand government like W did. (Government is now smaller under Obama now than it was 8 years ago BTW). He has yet to explain how he will fund his expensive programs while cutting taxes. W tried that, and look what happened.
The majority of people are pissed off at government, both democrats and republicans which will lead to record voter turnout. I think Trump will ride this wave of anger to a resounding victory in November. You can see signs of this already; Democrat election turnout in the primaries is down from 2008 and 2012, while Republican turnout numbers are significantly higher. Trump is a bad match up for the democrats. He is a master of the media, fights back against attacks with a vengeance we've never seen before and excites his base. He will probably put Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin into play as well.
Karizma1: Acutually quite the opposite. Voter turnout in the general election will likely be lower than last time. Lots of Republicans aren't voting for Trump and hate Hillary so they'll stay home. And young people never did vote much and still won't.
@georgebailey: The republic is dead. The USA is a democracy of the willfully ignorant. I won't vote for Trump, but I will vote against Hillary. She is so grossly inept, incompetent, and unqualified. I don't even understand how she is a serious candidate.
Trump. Hillary doesn't have the chops to take him head on and even voters in her own party think she is untrustworthy. Trump, on the other hand, has a broad base of appeal, including among many who traditionally vote Democrat. The Democratic Party seriously miscalculated by giving her the nod in a year where the voters are so disgusted with establishment types, though I'm guessing that this was part of a deal brokered 8 years ago when she stepped aside and threw her support behind Obama. If they had put forward anyone more serious than that whackjob Sanders to compete with her then we might be having a very different conversation right now.
Also see this. Democrats don't even want to come out and vote for their candidates:
Of course the Dems aren't turning out for primary's...it's a done deal for them. The general election is another thing though, as the senate will be at stake as well as the presidency. And Trump stirs fear in a lot of people too.
Right rock. Or it could be that, faced with an unabashed opportunist like Clinton or a Socialist whack job like Sanders, they just cannot become motivated enough to bother. i know which gets my vote. ;)
One of numerous tidbits about the hold your nose voting necessary to cast a ballot for Clinton, by the left leaning Huiffington Post no less.
Hillary will win (yikes!) because she's female, plain and simple.
The people who post name calling also have very poorly thought out opinions when it comes to politics. You can tell the Trump supporters right off.
larry: I think if she loses it will be because she's a woman. As I've said, except for social issues she's VERY mainstream Republican in her policies. Conservatives are blind to that which is both amusing and disappointing. If you look at W's domestic and foreign policies you'd be hard pressed to find significant differences in Clinton's. Obama is obviously to the left, albeit not as much as Sanders.
I can't believe so many are "reading" this election so WRONG! Perhaps just to many youngsters.
As soon as Trump gets the nomination, you are going to see full court press unleashed on Hillary by the Trump campaign. Its going to be brutal, and the media will cover it because Trump gets ratings. Democrats are used to kicking the Romney's and McCain's of the country around, but they've never gone up against a guy like Trump who will fight back ten times harder. We saw a preview of this several weeks ago when Clinton accused Trump of having a "penchant for sexism." Trump went on the attack and shut both Bill and Hillary up in two days flat.
Based on the current situation - I'd say Hillary would win. I think she's going to roll over Sanders. I think Sanders has an honest desire to help the folks who need the assistance.
The republicans risk a huge infight in their attempt to stop the Trump momentum. I think Cruz will dig deeper into his dirty tricks - in an attempt to stay close. Rubio risks looking worse than Trump by continuing his insults.
The one X factor in my opinion is still Trump. I thought he'd be knocked out long before now. So maybe he will get the nomination - and then pick up more steam? It's a wild idea - but I think he has tapped into something that voters want - and something that political insiders hate. The more the political insiders get angry - the more attractive they make Trump.
The Republican Party will never again win a national Election with a candidate that panders to the Religious Right and their social issues. Too many moderate women and latinos that will pivot left if pushed.
To my own personal horror, Trump is the only republican candidate perceived as powerful enough to lead, independent enough to say fuck off to the religious right, and nasty enough to capture the frustration of the average American as it concerns Washington gridlock. Lastly, Hillary will be nominee (as Bernie is off the reservation left), but she has too many haters in the middle.
For these reason, shockingly, Trump will win. Not saying I endorse Trump -- just how I see it playing out.
The power of the religious right is definitely in decline. It's mostly demographics as the US becomes more secular, catching up slowly with Europe. They wanted Santorum, not Romney. They wanted Huckabee not McCain. GWB knew how to unite social conservatives and the establishment, but it's unclear who can actually lead a party with some very big fractures. The Tea party routinely primaries out moderate incumbents, sometimes with disasterous general election results.
The Republicans will come back eventually, they survived the brief H Ross Perot split that gave us President Bill Clinton. But 2016 could get very ugly for the Republicans down ticket on election night.
History is a dead art. We're replaying 1980..just change the names..on to sports..
^^^^^^ insightful
SJG
Reasonable Efforts and Court Improvement youtube.com
My understanding is that Trump has donated to the Clintons in the past. The whole point of him running for the Republican side is to block a 'better' candidate from the right to challenge Hillary. (not that the Republicans offered up any better options!) He will only continue to find ways to shrink his support among independents after the convention.
If the first black president didn't get in the way of the first women president 7 years ago, Trump wouldn't be doing shit right now. It the ultimate scam/coup. When your choice are Hillary or Hillary... there's only one possible outcome. Dems made major changes to there nomination process to ensure there would be a repeat of someone (Obama) out doing Hillary in the primary. Then Trump helps her sow up the general.
The wild card could be Bloomberg if he jumps in late. He leans left on enough issues (like guns) that I don't think it is obvious whether he huts Trump or Hillary more.
^Bloomberg seems to lean more to the center on guns (IMO). See the following URL -
But each reader should decide.
So far, we have a choice between a fascist nut job, a socialist nut job, a megalomaniacal, sociopathic nut job, or a bunch of religious nut jobs.
We're doomed.
I'm still not sure. I always thought Hilary could be taken down by the right candidate, she is so disliked by people all across the spectrum. But with a guy like Trump who is so polarizing? Could he propel Democrats to polls to vote against him? Maybe. Could he also keep independents and moderate Republicans at home? Maybe.
I personally am having trouble deciding who I would prefer less. Clinton is a complete snake but I've never perceived her as much of a radical. Trump is a clown with no real plan and I don't think anyone really knows for sure what his political position really is. At the same time I don't think he's going to try and throw us to the far right.
Right now my gut says Clinton is the next pres, but who knows.
Just remember, the country is more RIGHT, then left!
Plurality Of Americans
37% Conservative 35% Moderate 24% Liberal
Plurality Of US Middle Class
39% Conservative 35% Moderate 22% Liberal 4% Don't know (Really?)
Gallup, Pew Research Center
Shit guys, can't ya take a joke??? It really doesn't matter. Life goes on. We get fucked either way.
vm,
Isn't that often our goal here?
Picking between Trump and Cruz is like "being shot or poisoned. What does it really matter?" --Lindsey Graham
"My party has gone batshit crazy" --Lindsey Graham
Yeah, Trump is like the GOP "final boss." He's bits and pieces of most of what came before him except assembled in caricature.
Obligatory SJG postscript:
Final Boss : tvtropes.org
The only way to beat Trump, is to use a d20 (20 sided die) and roll a 19 or a 20, in order to strike a critical blow. Good luck.
Correctamundo, Clubber !! Getting fucked at my old age is a delight !! With the 2 likely people in the final election, bend over, everyone. They don't believe in lube. :)
Conservative, Moderate, Liberal? How many people fall into these categories depends upon how you define the categories, and in particular upon what questions you ask.
Most likely people will vote as they have previously voted, plus being receptive to how current issues are being framed.
I am not aware of anyone saying the things Trump says ever having gotten elected.
I would still say that Rubio and Cruz are quite a bit to the Right of the Republican Party center.
Clinton is of course a centrist candidtate, as she has always sought to position herself.
Bernie Sanders is a bit to the Left of most of the Democratic Party. But in that he is emphasizing economic justice and caring about people, and then has proposed universal health care and tuition free college, he is actually well within mainstream American political discourse, while being still to the Right of most of Western Europe.
SJG
If I had a penny for every word that SJG typed, I would make it rain.
:)
SJG
Pennies from Heaven youtube.com
I'm kind of hoping for Bloomberg, even though I know it's a really long shot. I think Billary will probably win though. Not a typo.