tuscl

June 17, 2015

Will be a very important day for the markets.

60 comments

  • just_the_nuts
    9 years ago
    Lol and for tuscl

    Dougster! Dougster! Dougster!
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    ok why?
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Ok fomc meeting announcement.
  • motorhead
    9 years ago
    The crop report is coming out? Do we go long on orange juice futures?
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    I think it's all noise. a quarter point increase or no increase, it won't affect things that much whenever it does happen.
    Greece is Alll noise too. Total debt something like 50 some billion dollars.
    However the market makers like to explain to the public news to explain why the markets dropped or popped. The public doesn't want to hear markets followed a predetermined path that they don't know about. For everyone I lost, using technical analysis to predict market direction, the news is just noise that corresponds to market moves. The market may have a 10% or bigger correction coming up. The public would rather hear Greece defaulted or something rather than no news like the flash crash.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Mark your calendars! (Yes it's because of the FOMC meeting.)
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Forecasting a ten percent or bigger market correction after a 7 year bull run is no big prediction either. I'm just wondering if they are about ready to pull the rug, if that could alter sentiment enough in the US to change the president's party affiliation.
    If Obama has been in charge of the plunge protection team and he felt betrayed by his own party recently. He might just screw them over and instruct them to sell trillions instead of buying. That would have a big impact on the markets.
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Of course that would all be secret. The public would only hear about the quarter point interest rate increase, then Greece defaulting or some crap like that.
    Yep we're screwed either way.
    Let's enjoy one strip clubs.
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    some, not one, unless my iPad knows about pp being closed, lol
  • warhawks
    9 years ago

    Yes it is:

    June 17th is the 168th day of the year (169th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. There are 197 days remaining until the end of the year.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Ah, yes, you are right, shark. A quarter point increase is not going to derail this boom. My thesis is that rate hikes will give banks more incentive to lend to those with FICO scores below 800, which will actually turbo charge the economic boom, and rate hikes will do more to lessen income inequality than anything Hilary will ever do or could even promise.

    Now the short term market reaction is going to be the interesting part. Can't wait!

  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    Congress has grown a set of balls, so if anything will move them markets I believe it will happen in 2016. Especially if executive powers are being used, but like the old saying goes "there is no profit in prognostication".

    I've learned to not give a shit what any of these meetings say anyways. Whatever happens will happen and I'll be better off regardless.
  • just_the_nuts
    9 years ago
    Balls lol
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    I guess if they don't put off the rate increase, the dollar could go up and the stock market could sell off for several days, could be a start to a correction. A great thing for Long term investors since they get more shares of stock for the same price. Then in a couple of years the stock prices are higher than they used to be, or maybe 5. For everyone investing routinely via a 401k, good times. Even though it may not feel like it if they were fully invested during the drop.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Gonna be one hell of a boom.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Get your HFTs set!
  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    My guess is no rate hike yet, but language stating next meeting likely with it being data dependent. This isn't really me putting my neck out there. Err on the side of caution.
  • farmerart
    9 years ago
    Take a chill pill. All this talk about interest rates is just bull roar. Any increases will be very gentle......probably +0.25% at a time. Do you really think rate increases of that nature will crater the equity markets? Talk to me about interest rates when a 30 year US Treasury yields 6% (though I will probably be dead by the time that happens).

    Anybody remember the 1980s? Interest rates in the mid-teens; 21% mortgages; I bought a long Canada Bond yielding over 15% in the early 1980s. Crafty stock pickers did just fine. Philip Morris was a star for me and several small Canadian oil and gas start-ups were champions in my equity portfolio during that decade.

    Traders will love this shit. Investors will ignore it.
  • warhawks
    9 years ago

    So... WTF happened today, June 17th 2015?

    As far as I can tell, the sun will set and come up tomorrow.... Good day to hit the strip clubs...
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @Dougster.

    i like you Dougster and that is why i’m going to tell you what i’m about to tell you. not many men would be as honest with you as i am going to be but they don’t give a shit about you

    you have been pumping an economic boom for about six months now since the end of November. in that time the S&P is up a whopping 1.3% way below any historic average. it has been a traders market up half a percent one day and down half a percent the next but no economic boom to be seen.

    now you have pumped today’s fomc meeting and yet the fed did exactly what everyone expected promising to possibly tighten at some undetermined time in the future maybe. and what was the market’s reaction? flat, flat, flat.

    what you need is to get back in the groove. get your mojo back so to speak and i know that you know deep down what that means. com’on, i know you want to do it so just let it out. copy and paste if it is easier but here it is:


    “san_jose_guy is a faggot”


    com’on Dougster say it, just say it and you will be right as rain. trust me, i’m a doctor
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    farmerart: " Any increases will be very gentle......probably +0.25% at a time. Do you really think rate increases of that nature will crater the equity markets? "

    That's what the people on TUSCL said. I, OTOH, think rate hikes are a good thing.

    DoctorPhil: "you have been pumping an economic boom for about six months now since the end of November."

    Very clever "slight" and i'm sure "accidental" distortion. No it was the middle of October.

    DoctorPhil: "no economic boom to be seen. "

    Of course Libertarian can't see it, because that would me it happened despite the fact that it happened despite the fact that governments have been following very non-Libertarian policies. But didn't they tell us if they didn't there would be an economic collapse? So yeah, they won't admit it though it's plain for anyone else to see.
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Yellen wants to raise rates so that she can lower them again if needed. Of course they don't want the dollar to go up too much or our whole debt situation could go down the crapper and tank global economies.

    Now the question will be show down at the Greece German corral. Will Greece come out swinging or is it already too late? This is like strip club drama down to the wire. They may extend things with some kind of temporary hail Mary pass another week or two I heard to prolong the drama even more. I think the markets want to sell off and have a correction. I'm ready to get it over with but I guess it could last months. Just when it starts if it hasn't already is a good question.

    I got a solution, split the euro up into euro 1 for strong economies, and then euro 2 for weak economies. Euro countries can opt to switch and the euro 2 could be pegged to be 50% value of euro 1. Maybe call it the fifty for half the euro.
    Just need to get creditors and debtors to agree to swap debt for one euro 1 to one euro 2 if a country switches. Maybe payments could stay the same except in new currency but time to repay doubles. Greece, possibly Italy, possibly Finland could all switch and get an economic boost. I'm sure there's something I haven't thought of why this won't work.
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    ok Dougster i have no idea what you are trying to say about governments, libertarians or the economy. all i know is that you won't be in balance with the universe if you aren't true to yourself.

    just fucking say what you know to be true and what you are bursting at the seams wanting to say:

    san_jose_guy is a faggot
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    I'm saying libertarians can't see what's an obvious boom because admitting it would cause them cognitive dissonance. As in - we have boom. But we got there even though we didn't follow libertarian policies. In fact policies that were quite the opposite. So how do libertarians avoid the dissonance? Simple deny what's plainly obvious - ie the boom - and tell themselves that the just collapse is coming any day now.

    It's just how any religion operates. Follow us and have paradise. Or follow them and have hell on earth. Come on now, given that what's your choice?
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @Dougster “Follow us and have paradise. Or follow them and have hell on earth. Come on now, given that what's your choice?”

    i’m not going to follow anybody. what i’m trying to tell you is that your inner self, your psyche, is all fucked up, constipated for want of a better description. you simply have to cleanse your cosmic bowels if you are to ever get well. so again i say to you stop holding it inside and let loose with a classic Dougster:

    “san_jose_guy is a faggot”.

    this is a question of you health not only in the here and now but in the coming boom or depression whichever comes first.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    @shark: the drop in the Fed dots yesterday was the big story.

    @DrPhil: doesn't make any sense. Call someone who is legitimately a nice guy a "faggot"? Ain't how I roll.
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @Dougster. “Ain't how I roll.”


    are you in there? are you even aware of what you are saying? i’m seriously trying to help but you have to want to get better. IDK if it was your move to NYC and how much your psyche is invested in becoming successful or what but you more than most must know that not everyone can be a Gordon Gecko. you’re beginning to sound more and more like the global warming crackpots going around calling passing strangers DENIERS! and you certainly don’t want to become one of those cranky old men muttering to yourself:

    ”there is an economic boom, there is an economic boom gosh darn it and get off my lawn dammit”.

    soon enough you will be among the dead and dying stacked like cord wood in the corridors of a shell of a building that was once a hospital when there existed medical care that could have cured you but was replaced by obamacare, an ironic cruelty designed by a progressive neo-national socialist workers’ party to stamp out any last vestiges of freedom and humanity. while you are lying there waiting for the light to fade you will realize that the tyranny of government was responsible for sucking every last drop of usefulness out of you and that the libertarians were right all along even though there was never anything you could have done to change things. that is, there was never anything you could have done but to live with some small grain of self-respect by being true to yourself. and that is what i want for you. i want you to embrace that sadistic little shit that is your inner self.

    you know san-jose-guy is a sick fucktard. a mistake of nature. in short he is a faggot and you know it and you want to scream it out. you can’t ever atone for whatever self-perceived sins against alucard you have and denying your nature is not healthy. you need to accept that raging against the machine and letting your inner sadist out are one in the same. ignore your inner conflicts and say it before your remaining life is completely wasted:

    “san_jose_guy is a faggot”
  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    June 18th, the next day of the greatest economic boom in history!
  • san_jose_guy
    9 years ago
    from World Book Encyclopedia, Marx, Karl
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    .
    During the Industrial Revolution, most factory workers and miners in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and other countries were poorly paid and worked long hours under unhealthful and dangerous conditions. To Marx, older explanations for poverty did not seem to explain these new developments. For example, he rejected the arguments of the French socialists who claimed poverty resulted from the greed of the wealthy. He preferred the more scientific theories of British free-market thinkers , including Adam Smith and especially, David Ricardo. Ricardo and Smith had argued that changes occur in society due to the automatic and irresistible forces of economic competition.
    .
    .
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    Unlike many other social critics during the Industrial Revolution, Marx did not see capitalism as a moral problem. For example, the English novelist Charles Dickens and the French writer Victor Hugo saw child labor, extremes of wealth and poverty, and other aspects of capitalism as immoral. Marx, however, saw capitalism as a necessary stage in resolving worker's problems. He thought that under capitalism, those problems took their purest form and thus would result in a workers' revolution which would lead to Communism.

    Marx believed that the boom-and-bust business cycles of capitalism would help trigger the revolution. According to him, occasional overproduction created more goods and services than owners could sell. Forced by competition to be efficient, owners had to either fire workers or slide into the ranks of the proletariat themselves. But with fewer workers receiving wages, fewer people could buy products. As a result, the problem of over production became more serious. According to Marx, this spiraling process would eventually result in a swelling of the working class and a shrinking of the owner class until the system broke down.

    The working class would then revolt and seize control of the government. A workers' dictatorship would use the government to end private ownership of productive property. Eventually, social classes would disappear. Even government, no longer needed to enforce public ownership of property, would "wither away." A true Communist society would then have been achieved.
    .
    .
    .
    Grudrisse, relatively unknown until Russian scholars published in 1939. You could call this Marx's Nachlass. Highly recommended.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grundrisse

    SJG

    Brothers in Arms
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2rx3IAE…
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @Dougster. see ^^^^^^ fucktarded idiot
  • rockstar666
    9 years ago
    Sorry Dougster, but you missed your prediction by one day. Still impressive though! New NASDQ record today.
  • san_jose_guy
    9 years ago
    full text, translated into English in 1973
    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/wo…

    SJG

    Made in Japan, Deep Purple
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39vhEHUO…
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @rockstar666. wow i missed that. thanks for pointing it out. up a whole 1%. now i can finally afford to retire to the south of france.
  • rockstar666
    9 years ago
    Dr P: I wish I could say the same. My 401K moves with the NASDQ but there's not that much in there. In fact I'm going to cash out and put in all into silver at some point. Then when it hits $40 an oz. I can retire!
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    @rockstar: Yes, starting increasingly since 2014 I've noticed that the market doesn't react to the news on the day of but waits until the next. Especially true on Friday's. I was tempted to trade yesterday (since the dots moved opposite the direction I thought), but just sat tight and glad I did.

    @SJG: Yep, that's why true Marxists hate Socialists. They think Socialists make capitalism bearable enough that it indefinitely postpones The Revolution. Whereas if capitalism had no moderating influence that would be enough rope to hang itself in a couple of generations.

  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    @rockstar: Should say "I've noticed that the market [often] doesn't react". Nice move today on gold, huh? :-)

    @SJG: Nope, I just think SJG is cool and has almost nothing in common with Alucard.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Ooops, last comment was for DrPhil, of course.
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    @Dougster

    smh. fucking conformist. next thing you'll be informing on your closest friends and relatives. ah but i forget, there are no friends or relatives in a socialist dystopian prison state. they just disappear and no one asks questions.

    too bad, you showed promise. you could have been someone. keep the mask on and don't make waves - that's the ticket to survival. maybe they won't ever bring up alucard if you just don't make any waves
  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    "Keep the mask on and don't make waves". That's great advice Dr Phil. I think I will take it. Preach!
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    When I can't figure out how what someone says applies to me I just assume it's projection.
  • san_jose_guy
    9 years ago
    They say FDR saved capitalism from itself.

    Upton Sinclair ran in 1934 to be governor of California, running to the left of FDR. But Sinclair's campaign was moralistic. Then Sam Goldwin of MGM made movies to scare Californians about dust bowl Oakies.

    Huey Long of Louisiana claimed to be to the left of FDR, but it was mostly bullshit, bullshit mixed with some legitimate Roman Catholic thinking.

    But there were others on the far left.

    Lyndon Johnson was afraid to go as far as FDR did. This is why his programs, like Medicare, were always compromised. Medicare was to have cost controls. But to gain support of physicians they dumped this and allowed "customary fees".

    LBJ's community organizing work was compromised in order to gain the support of Chicago's Richard Daley.

    These kinds of problems are why Francis Fox-Piven and Richard Cloward always tried to encourage the poor to engage in social disruption, rather than to engage in the political process, even when the chance was offered.

    Right now, the way it looks on the ground where I am, the poor are managed by Evangelical Christians and the unholy alliance they have with the County's Mental Health Dept. It's based on themes like "Recovery". And then there is psychotherapy, plus psychiatric medication, which keep the child abuse surviving poor in line. Of course many of these people are also victims of exactly the same types of evangelical churches. Then it's also these corporate funded pity programs endorsed by the Jesuit and Harvard educated San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo. One of the leaders is also this church pastor Dana Bainbridge. She must have been brought out here from Nebraska by someone connected with City Hall. Their church property is directly adjacent to City Hall. It had been used as a base camp for protests and for doing very conspicuous homeless feeds. This Bainbridge is a former enforcer for the Clinton-Gingrich welfare reforms. She was with the company Maximus, which specializes in the outsourcing of gov't health and human services, especially welfare to work and paternity identification.

    These are the reasons why we don't have a revolution today, but instead we have this speculator class which @Dougster is aligned with gaining more and more power and control. Even if I don't care how much money they take in, I still do care about the amount of control they have over our nation's future. There is compelling reason to rise up and revolt.

    One of the ways historically which people at the bottom have been able to fight back has been to live communally. I say this is fine, so long as it doesn't turn into a religious tune out. It must be a group devoted to striking back and creating anarchy.

    SJG

    Neil Young
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdiCJUys…
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    ^^^^^ idiot
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    shit! lost half of yesterday’s gains today. i guess it will have to be the redneck riviera instead of the french riviera.

    oh well. it was one hell of an economic boom while it lasted
  • san_jose_guy
    9 years ago
    Robert Reich on Why Obama Supports TPP
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZA1dl36z…

    SJG
  • DoctorPhil
    9 years ago
    idiotS ^^^^^^
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    DoctorPhil: "shit! lost half of yesterday’s gains today. "

    Just some profit taking ahead of the weekend with all the uncertainty in Greece. Hang in there, DrPhil, hang in there. :-)
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    I'll give away a secret the public doesn't seem to know or remember. The central banks around the world set rates to correspond to changes in 3 month treasuries of the local currency. The current US 3 month treasury rate is .01. The Fed isn't going to raise rates until it goes up a lot more.
  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    Inflation and wages are still low, but slowly climbing. Hey Dougster, wanna do a TUSCL meet up for an investment club? We could really gay up a strip club visit that way. Fags getting together talking about investments where titties are flying and beavers are flashing.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Yeah, we could all wear whie three piece polyester suits too and do a massive parallel running of RickyBoy's The System.
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    I made more money in the stock market this week than I spent in strip clubs in the last 2 or 3 weeks combined. If I set up a day trading account and had 2 days off from work each week , I could be a millionaire if I simply repeated this every week for 10 out of 12 months a year.
    I think when you truly start having a lot of money, you change stock prices. Trading volume is too low if I change stock prices right now.
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Watch the interest rate on 3 month us treasuries. When it approaches .25, watch the fed raise their rate to .25
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    They tend to be behind the curve so the rate might need to be .30 etc. first.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Looking good!
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    Free elliotwave long term market forecast.
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Prechter? Has he thrown in the bear towel yet?
  • sharkhunter
    9 years ago
    https://pugsma.wordpress.com/

    multiple people agree on a long term bull market. watch out for a dip first starting any month between now and next year. SP500 over 3000
  • Dougster
    9 years ago
    Oh, that guy. :-)
  • san_jose_guy
    9 years ago
    Yes, we do have a boom, and it is because we haven't followed libertarian doctrines. For example, one place which is still hurting is Scott Walker's Anti-Union Wisconsin.

    But even though we are not following Ayn Rand doctrines, we still have serious structural, over consumption, and social injustice issues which threaten stability.

    SJG
  • Mate27
    9 years ago
    SJG can u explain how it is beneficial to run a 2-3 zone on a power team as opposed to a 1-3-1 zone on an outside threat? Your details are enlightening.
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