OT: November Jobs Creation about 50% Above Expectations
Dougster
Total blowout on the November jobs number. Expectations were for 225k creation and the actual was 314k. Now I am sure the RickBoyDugan will rush onto ZeroHedge and they will find one little blemish in the report and focus on that only while missing the bigger picture (and don't get me wrong, I'm sure they know better too and it's all part of their cynical business plan to deliberately mislead).
Others will concoct some argument that it's all due to people giving up looking for jobs. Those who have more dispassionate minds will see this for what it is. A clear sign that we are in the early stages of an economic boom.
Now I'm a getting a bit worried the evidence of a boom is going to be too obvious. Heck, even stevie-girl might concede it now. I preferred the days back in October when the market was dropping every day and everyone was screaming doom, and stevie-girl was quoting headline after headline, and everyone else was circle-jerking him here. I guess that circle-jerk really made everyone feel good, and now they'll just kind of forget the fact that while it sure felt nice they were WRONG.
Sometimes it's lonely at the top being able to see things so clearly while others are just relying on a media with an agenda not in their interests to think for them or falling back on feelings of guilt that the world economy deserves to be punished because governments are not toeing the line to economic policies (like a gold standard) that they wish they were. I'm sure some will continue to tell themselves the day of reckoning is coming. Good luck with that one! I'm also sure y'all will get a headline or two to feed your confirmation bias occasionally next year and can circle-jerk each other about how right you are still are and any day now there will be concrete proof.
LOL!
Others will concoct some argument that it's all due to people giving up looking for jobs. Those who have more dispassionate minds will see this for what it is. A clear sign that we are in the early stages of an economic boom.
Now I'm a getting a bit worried the evidence of a boom is going to be too obvious. Heck, even stevie-girl might concede it now. I preferred the days back in October when the market was dropping every day and everyone was screaming doom, and stevie-girl was quoting headline after headline, and everyone else was circle-jerking him here. I guess that circle-jerk really made everyone feel good, and now they'll just kind of forget the fact that while it sure felt nice they were WRONG.
Sometimes it's lonely at the top being able to see things so clearly while others are just relying on a media with an agenda not in their interests to think for them or falling back on feelings of guilt that the world economy deserves to be punished because governments are not toeing the line to economic policies (like a gold standard) that they wish they were. I'm sure some will continue to tell themselves the day of reckoning is coming. Good luck with that one! I'm also sure y'all will get a headline or two to feed your confirmation bias occasionally next year and can circle-jerk each other about how right you are still are and any day now there will be concrete proof.
LOL!
38 comments
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It's true that a lot of manufacturing jobs were turned into minimum wage jobs -- but not true that professional jobs are on the decline. There is a hollowing out of the job market, with jobs growing at the low- and high- end of the wage spectrum. Mid-wage jobs are on the decline and that's a big problem.
Obama, of course, takes the blame for anything and everything. Care to elaborate on why Obama is to blame? I seem to remember that the financial service industry took down the world economy (pre-Obama) by selling trillions in derivatives, backed by bogus mortgages. There are studies that show that housing crashes are far more devastating than stock-market crashes, and it takes many years to recover. That's the valid point that Che makes, above.
More cars on the roads during each rush hour. More senseless air travel clogging up the skies. More stuff being sent by Federal Express because that makes people feel important.
What is missing is the kind of restructuring of our economy so that no one will be left out or stigmatized, rather than just the creating of more bubbles based on little more than new flushes of investor confidence. One of the basic premises of work, the thing which makes it honorable, is that it serves some social good. This has been absent for a very long time.
SJG
And CNBC is usually the cheerleading section!
Speaking of CNBC, however, it looked like the word came out from above that they should finally start paying attention and reporting on the fact that China is up 20% over the last month and about 50% YTD. Lots of buy, buy, buys and specific names mentioned. If that continues into next week, you'll know that means big players will be looking to take some profits.
@SJG: alot of technologies that are accelerating the most are ones that make travel less necessary for work. Cleaner forms of energy are also seeing big bets made on them. And then there are electric cars.
I'm one of people who gets most of my stuff delivered by Amazon/FedEx and rarely shops in malls anymore. That frees up alot of time which I can use to make fun of stevie-girl and those faggot cock-suckers on here who just love to circle jerk him that his idiotic ideas are right no matter what the real real world evidence. But that's good it means those malls will be torn down. Maybe replaced by parks or maybe residences.
And the best part of all this is that it's only getting started. Now since some of stevie-girl's circle jerking faggot cock-suckers can only understand things when he simplifies it into song lyric quotes, let me give you one: "You ain't seen nothing yet. B-b-b-abby, you just ain't seen nothing yet."
It serves some social good? Is that the new way of saying “arbeit macht frei”?
How about work as a means to feed yourself, to clothe yourself and to provide for your family so as to never be a burden to others and a parasite on society? That is what honorable men do.
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I think what I appreciate most about Dougsteer is his uncanny ability to explain the most complicated, wonky, and arcane concepts in terms that a layperson (like myself) can understand!!
In our wealthy industrial society, if work is only "a means to feed yourself, to clothe yourself and to provide for your family so as to never be a burden to others and a parasite on society", then you are not actually a participant. You are being taken advantage of. Something is seriously wrong. No one should submit to that.
What is honorable about work is that it does produce social good.
We are capable of producing all the food, shelter, clothing and lots of other stuff to take care of everybody with just a small portion of our labor force. This is one of the things which makes the present situation so contentious and confusing. Labor is in great surplus, and it has been for over 100 years.
Labor was in great surplus when Auschwitz was built. This is one of the ways our society could go, deciding to put those persons deemed undesirable into concentration and extermination camps. This tendency is already there. Along racial lines it has been a tension in the US from the very beginning.
At the time of the First World War labor was in great surplus and so that is why that war ran so long why the casualty level was so high.
What I am talking about is how to avoid a replay of either of those situations. But just boosting for another bubble is not going to give us anything. Such bubbles are just more senseless activity. More innovation actually happens during busts than during bubbles. During bubbles people get intoxicated, they stop thinking. This was how it was during the dotcom bubble, and it is how it is during every bubble. Nothing good comes from any of these bubbles.
What makes work intrinsically honorable is that it produces some social good. There is lots which needs doing, but our economic system doesn't allow it. Another bubble is not going to change this; it just makes for distraction.
SJG
We're actually in a magical zone right now where 1) Employment is pretty good and moving in the right direction and 2) Energy prices are low. *Usually* a stronger economy leads to rising energy prices which is a big part of general inflation, as the cost of transporting goods is a decent chunk of the price. But Energy is a global commodity and global demand has slowed.
There's still a lot of short term risk with both global instability and the fact North America (and perhaps Japan) are looking like the only bright spots right now. Germany isn't going to let the EU print money to stimulate the region's economy. China has probably picked all the low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency gains. Russia is a mess. The US dollar going up can be really nice in the short run (plan your international sex trips now!) but it also can kill exports.
I think 2015 will be a strong year, but I'm concerned what 2016 will bring, especially if the Fed starts inching up rates.
"I think 2015 will be a strong year, but I'm concerned what 2016 will bring, especially if the Fed starts inching up rates."
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Good point, James, about interest rates. Hoping the Fed keeps rates low until we are sure about this recovery.
Doesn't matter. Did the DAX or CAC care on Friday? They ended buying themselves enough time to make it to a U.S. and China led global boom.
The Euro has weakened considerably and even Thursday's announcement that they are continuing the "just one more month" game, couldn't give it a sustained bounce when it ran face first into the US's jobs number.
A weaker Euro will do more for their economies than QE ever could. In fact, I bet if there is any QE the Euro will rally on it. Another reason it is to be avoided.
We just need to look at history and stop listening to the media and the bozo analysts they bring on.
Has the U.S. lead global recoveries before? Yes! Can we do it again? Yes!
Has the U.S. prospered with a dollar much stronger than it is now? Yes! Many currency including the Euro are still overvalued against it.
It's a bit like before when you said wage demands will threaten the recovery. These are just minor factors that do drive booms in the first plave and so will not derail them.
Interest rate hikes should start hitting around spring of next year. I may talk about their probable market effects at some point, but again, I think this crowd is not the right one for such pearls, so maybe I'll just leave everyone to masturbate themselves and each other to Stevie-girl's song lyric quotes. All I will let you know now is that it will be fun and lucrative.
It's not that we are in an economic boom -- more like a slow, precarious, recovery from a near financial catastrophe. Without the financial stimulus from Obama and a brilliant and creative fed chair (Bernanke) we really would be fucked.
When are you gonna bump the "faggot" thread? It has been a while.
??????
I will agree with your assessment of Bernanke however.
It was weak, but better than nothing.
Maybe you weren't born yet.
12/5/14
http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/109144
11/28/14
http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/108928
SJG
Let me fill you on the history of what really happened. The main reasons we got close to the brink were because of the punitive action against failing banks and their shareholders in 2008. At first the banks were getting nationalized or allowed to be picked up by JP Morgan for pennies on the dollar destroying shareholder equity and threatening to have everybody pull out - both of deposit and dump the stock. When Paulson came up with a better plan - TARP to put the breaks on this recapitalize the bank all without destroying shareholder equity we started to stabilize.
When Obama came into office there were rumors he was going to nationalize, which started another selloff in early 2009. Even when he had Pelosi make statements that he won't the markets continued to selloff, but it was pure irrationality at that point. We then got a sharp rebound because of cheap everything had gotten, and because the government at least verbally threw everything they had at the problem. Some of the stuff never played out and talk was good enough. Originally the stimulus they were talking was going to be $1 trillion, but it turned out that much less was needed. They were also talking private public partnership which also turned out to be superfluous.
As for Bernanke, I agree he was brilliant and also important in saving us from the brink. Again, the important mindset was to get us recovered rather than punish by sending out the masses with their pitchforks.
But he has keep rates too low too long, which is about the only thing hindering the recovery right now. Once rate rise next year, after the initial panic, we are really going to see an economy accelerate. I'm guess between 5 and 6%.
So that's what really happened and I was following it play by play day to day. Can even remember some of those charts dropping and then, when the bottom fell out, turning around on a dime on rumors that someone was going to announce something. I'm sure the White House was watching the same screens and their hands being forced, and then having to scramble with to say to appease the markets on some of those days.
Nobody pays attention too you retard.
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I did say, above, that the stimulus was too weak, but better than nothing. Try to read gooder next time.
In your rant, above, I didn't see you place any blame on the financial services industry itself that got us fucked in the first place. ..and don't accuse me of partisanship --plenty of the deregulation occurred during the Clinton years. We can also blame that hack, Greenspan for refusing to do anything.
Totally disagree that low rates are hurting the economy; on the contrary we should wait to see if this jobs report is a flash in the pan before raising rates.
BTW, Thanks for bumping the faggot thread.!!!!
For those of you who have me on ignore, please feel free to chime in.
I actually hold them primarily responsible. Try to read and think gooder next time. Jumping to unsupported conclusions - not good. :-)
Like I say 2015 is going to be a blast!