OT : The Stock Market ?
Papi_Chulo
Miami, FL (or the nearest big-booty club)
The market has been going bonkers and hitting all time highs?
What do you all think – bubble? If so, u think their will just be a pullback and not a semi-crash? All do you think it can keep going from here?
Thoughts?
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This year was pretty much straight up with only three real very brief correction. Next year I think will be more wild. I say S&P 2100 to 2200. Short treasuries and long US dollars will also be good plays.
Either way, we little guys will get screwed!
The public's pay is stagnant for yet another year (2). People are going to be watching their dimes.
Jobless rate for young people is still crazy (3) so there might be some shopping by mom and dad, but that is all.
There is a lot of boomer debt (4), so they are going to hold on to those jobs - but that debt is holding some of them hostage for new purchasing.
1) http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/11/26/h…
2) http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stagnant-wor…
3) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/youth.nr…
4) http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/colu…
I am in a quandary about what to do with my MMM holding. The damn stock keeps going up; the company's financials are robust; the stock's trading technicals are all meaningless since the chart has gone parabolic - a gain of over 50% for me in one of the big Dow 30 stocks in just over a year? All my instincts (and the voices in my head) are saying...........sell the thing. But, I just dunno.
The fall in CAD has given me a little wiggle room with oil prices. Resuming drilling last spring now has my production up to roughly 5,000boe/day but if WTI falls below $90 my drill bits will stop turning once again. I am so grateful that I am producing light oil. Alberta Heavy is once again trading at a huge discount to WTI, somewhere in the $60 heighbourhood.
I am not very optimistic at all about oil prices. That nuclear agreement with Iran will release gobs of oil to the Europeans and Brent will get whacked as a result, I am sure.
I just noticed your spelling of the word.....sceptical, the proper English spelling.
Are you a closet Canadian?
up to 1942, down to 1616, then up to 2050 somewhere near the end of the Obama presidential term maybe 2016, then the shtf and a big drop, hopefully not too big. This is for the SP500. Or maybe Israel decides to go to war and the market just takes a dump.
I got stopped out of MMM in about the first hour of trading this morning. Anybody have any idea what caused the $4+ hit in the stock's price today?........apart from the law of gravity? No idea what to do with this $260K since CAT isn't anywhere near my buy price (guess I'm a bit early in the down cycle to expect to get CAT in the 60s).
If this cash weren't in my retirement account I would just flip it into the my company's accounts (where every nickel is desperately needed at the moment).
I thought you might know. I am mostly busy today screaming at my drilling contractor. I just noticed that I will be getting an extra 6%+ on my gain, courtesy of the falling CAD. I bought MMM when CAD was more or less at par.
Fucking drilling contractor....just received another text of gibberish from the dolt.
If anything I've said over and over, if you want the best performance over time, leave your assets alone and do what they're supposed to, which is grow over time. Never get into market predictions, because there is no profit in prognostications. If you have money you need to spend over the next 3-5 years, you should always have that in safety. My long term stuff has blown out other returns since 2013.
And don't ever think that you should put your money into your own ventures. Oh no, the stock market is far better.
And we are approaching Ray Kurzweil's Singularity, so we have to buy in.
SJG
That wrong, I have a program that counted them and the % of up days is much higher than the % of down days.
I know that most people who gain money, prestige, and a well earned sense of satisfaction, do it by pursuing their own ventures. They get to steer what happens, they apply their own creative abilities, and they build up a cadre of colleagues.
And Kurzweil has really got a problem for himself, if Google Immortality is supposed to be Dougster's sentience, it has got a long way to go. Its little better than a primitive ALife like the old Eliza program.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA
SJG
SJG
Herbert Hoover, 1928 Campaign
SJG
SJG
If I had to guess I believe North Korea is going to fire missiles at Guam but is moving them in place. They are like guys working in a garage and want to make sure they have things in place kind of like Barney fife thinking he's the best police detective around but he's going up against a New York swap team that means business. Unfortunately this Barney fife has tons of artillery and nukes. Our general thinks millions may die in any conflict. I think trump has given an order to strike back. Shoot down missiles. Launch cyber attacks. Escalate things and see if ok Kim responds by launching more strikes. Then the US and South Korea possibly Japan may all join in. By 2018, millions might be dead and people won't be talking about stocks too much. This could happen next year instead if this year. Trump screwed me over on my last stock position. I added a rule that involves him tanking stocks making a technical position go bad to cut my losses short hopefully. I think he's made a decision to strike back if Kim strikes at Guam, etc. now what will Kim do? I suspect he isn't backing down. He's like Barney fife has to make sure the missiles are locked and loaded and aimed correctly. He might think if he doesn't hit Guam but the ocean nearby, he's innocent. Maybe trump needs to clarify any missiles going towards Guam will make him the cop on patrol who fears for his life because the missile or weapon was moving towards him. Our cops shoot and kill lots of innocent people with that claim. They feared for their lives. If our leaders think it's ok for our cops to keep doing this, launching a strike after Kim fires missiles at our territory, might be lots of shooting. Just my new opinion. Constant warnings by trump. Locked and loaded. That's not normal for a US president. Trump is a billionaire so I think he made an executive decision so that we aren't threatened by nukes here in the US mainland if Kim doesn't cut it out. I'm just wondering when the shooting will start. I thought about buying a stock market lottery ticket for this highway of future destruction but peace may prevail a few more months if Kim backs down.
I suspect we will have much better buying opportunities coming up. Rally after the next president comes along.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=…
And, sorry folks, although the conventional wisdom is that you cannot make money timing the market, there are a few hedge funds and other firms that have done it consistently over the long term. Maybe 99.9% of everyone would do better with buy and hold, but it's not 100%.
That would be a very small gain for 20 years, for someone who is starting their own businesses.
You can never really know much about the things you are investing it, it really is just glorified gambling.
The market goes up, but that is mostly because the government stopped collecting upper income taxes, and because speculators have become a constituency.
Gambling is zero substitute for building your own ventures where you work with other people and solve real problems.
SJG
He tries to call it gambling, but it's positive expectations. He's okay, maybe so, but there is risk. You say same thing if you start your own business. He's yes, but you are more in control. For him, at the end of the day it's all about control and nothing else. Control is what ruined his marriage, and is also at the heart of his necrophilia and grand scheme to start a cult.
Meanwhile, real sanctions are being imposed by China against NoKo for the first time.
The likeliest outcome from all this is someone, either a Chinese agent or NoKo military will take out Kim. Whoever replaces him will negotiate for economic assistance and a return to being a normal state.
If Kim manages to live long enough to launch an attack, there will be huge casualties, 99% of them being North Koreans.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=…
I just need to bump this thread to point out how Papi stated he was thinking bubble territory almost 4 years ago, and since then it's done nothing but March higher ..."
Well - to be accurate - I was not stating - I was asking (didn't you see all the question marks in the OP?).
And how did you remember a thread from almost 4 years ago given all the other finance threads that have been posted since then?
Here the topic is stocks and he wants to talk about anything but, I know you are reading this, why don't you shut the fuck up and allow those who are trying to learn, concentrate on their interest, instead of your own you selfish misogynistic fuck.
I also find it amusing sometimes to go onto the trader chats or discussion boards. If you were to believe how people discuss their trades (especially after the fact) it seems like 90% of them are buying the bottom tick 90% of the time and selling the top tick 90% of the time. So, yes, there is a ton of horseshit out there.
These hedge fund gods tell you they are the world's smartest investor and charge 3% or more for the privilege of having them manage your money. Except for a lucky few, it always ends badly. Then, these gods explain what went wrong and tell you it will never happen again. This time, they will get it right. It won't.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/2…
but there are others!
Market was due and still is for a bigger pullback. Trump just accelerated it. I figure the plunge protection team is letting it drop. Maybe attack North Korea, get that over with, then the fed announces their quantitative tapering program. I am thinking there will still be a fall or winter rally. Sp500 might go up to 2700. One guy online thinks there will be a mass panic. A mass panic to buy stocks. Dow 40,000 within a year. I don't share that much bullishness but if North Korea is solved with minimal loss of life, tax cuts implemented, good times might roll on. Maybe inexpensive health care premiums paid directly to the government who directly pays providers instead of insurance companies and things will be better for many.
I think the firms beat the market long term due to superior analysis, and they do pay the super big bucks to attract the team of people able to implement that superior analysis.
I didn't mean to say you made the call. Sorry for my misunderstanding, because I knew it would draw in the right comments behind us, again to prove a point about market performance versus active management.
Right now there are 62 hedge funds lined wanting to trade crypto currencies.
In other reports, I heard the US military is weaker than it has been in many years with years of budget cuts. On the other hand, the US spends as much or more than the China, Russia, and 6 other high spending countries combined on defense. I think we can cut a lot more unless we are planning on going to war with entire alien planets. Rumor is though, we have space fleets so you never know. Trump might order one of our top secret space ships to level North Korea worse than Godzilla in Tokyo.
Seems appropriate right now.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Osj_E8RxzK…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-XTwWqzKeX…
It is common for people who start businesses to multiply their equity at rates vastly exceeding anything on the stock market. Your denials of this made absolutely no difference.
Then as far as how the stock market does, indexed funds whatever, all you folks are saying is that when someone has positioned themselves to get a premium salary, they then feel that they are entitled to see that money multiply in a Federal Government Subsidized Wall Street Ponzi Scheme. And further, that this contingent has become a vocal and single issue electoral block.
So the ponzi scheme will then continue, but as with all ponzi schemes it well eventually collapse, because to keep afloat it depends upon taking in a geometrially increasing amount of new money. There just is not that money available, except perhaps by more tax cutting. So now, this contingent looks to Trump to give their ponzi scheme more support by tax cuts.
SJG
I'm not going to bother asking whether you've owned a business. Have you ever had a job ? Do you have a 401k plan ? Have you ever taken a business class, let alone an investment or Econ class ?
It's like trying to debate someone who can't speak English.
I don't remember anyone denying it. Are you just listening to the voices in your head? Or doing your usual tactic of assigning beliefs to people which they don't actually have but you wish they did so you had something easy to argue against? Guess dealing with people's real beliefs versus their actual ones is a part of reality you just can't deal with so escape into your fantasy world.
Some business owners do much better than the stock market some do much worse. AFAIK, the latter is much more common. (Also what theory tells us too: if you are looking for high return you don't get it, often, without high risk. Otherwise everyone would already be doing it.)
FYI, Trump said we begin bombing in 15 minutes.
Haha,he would never say that during non market hours.
SJG is a stupid person, even if you win an argument with him what could you possibly win.
That's why I say starting a business is the hardest, most stressful thing anyone can ever do, and our resident moron SJG doesn't have a clue what he is talking about.
Investing in well run successful companies is smart practice, starting your own is the real chumps game.
So you could ask all you want, but what you would get is nothing at all.
Our federal gov't has made it a policy to keep feeding the stock market via tax cuts and pro business policies. It is sad, but we have an electoral contingent, including I think yourself, which wants this, a government run upwards wealth siphon.
And Dougster, you and others have been all over the map on this issue.
And twentyfive, you are the stupid person. I just wish you would stand up for your own actual accomplishments, rather than siding with these speculators. The stock market if just a mountain of dead money.
$5.1 Trillion (much much more than this now), mountain of idle cash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB4s5b9N…
SJG
SJG
Jefferson Airplane, Volunteers of America
https://youtu.be/cxA3Q96a8XE?list=PLmMCb…
SJG
SJG
Wouldn't it be safer for you to just go away ?
And so it is "contentious political realms".
In an online venue, you either accept people as they present themselves, or your really are a belligerent troll. Worthless.
SJG
SJG
And if you would ever think it otherwise, then I guess you didn't have much to lose intellect wise, when you had yourself frozen.
SJG
WTF is this? Another threat from SJG? Guess he's getting more and more frustrated each day that his church and revolution just aren't materializing.
SJG
I don't think much about violence or murder, because I have better things to do with my time than fantasize about things unlikely to ever happen.
About the basic idea that when f2f forced to deal with belligerent or violent persons, that I would defend myself as necessary, that is just common sense life affirmation.
SJG
Brain Swimme
https://youtu.be/TRykk_0ovI0?list=PLEAE6…
And as far as myself, in my F2F activities I am often in situations which challenge bullies and thugs, and so violence is not completely out of the question.
SJG
You couldn't answer or retort anything in response except a litenany of obscure references off topic. That appears to always be your way out, start to change the subject when you don't like the topic's question . Have u always been this passive?
SJG
How does this work, like a heart lung machine? A pump, maybe an oxygen bottle and two IV needles?
And even this Information-Theoretic Death concept is based on a completely mechanical model of life, memory, and person. It is very different from what people like Henri Bergson and Collin Wilson have written about.
Now in Dougster's case, such maintaining of blood and oxygen supply to the brain was unnecessary anyway, as he initiated the transfusion and freezing process by his own hand, and while he still had pulse and respiration.
Kurzweil says we can live in computing clouds.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-new-future-f…
And he is trying to demonstrate this with Dougster. But I for one am not impressed.
https://www.tuscl.net/?page=post&id=5063…
SJG