txtittyfan's second call to short treasuries
Dougster
On March 23, 2011 txtittyfan said to short 7 to 10 year treasuries. I wanted to start a new thread to keep track of the result. I'll use the ETF "IEF" to track things.
3/23/2011: IEF around 93.5
At the time I'm posting this: IEF around 94.88
There have also been two 0.25 dividends. That means anyone following txtittyfan's advice is so far down about 1.38+50=1.88 per share.
3/23/2011: IEF around 93.5
At the time I'm posting this: IEF around 94.88
There have also been two 0.25 dividends. That means anyone following txtittyfan's advice is so far down about 1.38+50=1.88 per share.
31 comments
5/6/2011: DXY 74.3
I can see no discernible trend in USD at the moment just volatility piled on volatility. Long term, the debt/deficit nightmare can only have disastrous consequences for USD but that may not work out until I am long dead. For a trader volatility is pure sweetness.
Good luck with your ballsy call but I would watch it very carefully. I have different irons in the fire now (wildcat wells in south eastern Alberta).
Oh, yes, please, I get all my investing advice from here and Strippper Web.
samsung: Like I said I think getting into the US dollar now is reasonable. As farmerart points out though, there is reason for caution, so I would only scale up (i.e. start with a small position (maybe 1/5th) and only add if it rises.) There's definitely a chance I'm wrong here, in which case txtittyfan will get the last laugh. We'll just have to see what happens.
samsung: You've made some pretty good calls in the past. What do you like here?
A lot of seasoned currency traders with advanced, proprietary algorithms at their disposal have had their asses handed to them on levered currency trades. All it takes is one bad day for daily mark to market margin calls to wipe out a core capital position.
And by the way, large, well established hedge fund managers cannot easily find a counterparties willing to give them credit facilities sufficient to lever to a 10:1 ration, so who is going to do that for a knucklehead like you?
Now would be a good time to stop talking out of your asshole.
http://www.gftforex.com/land/?aid=5327
"Trade with less: With leverage up to 50:1"
Now please admit you know nothing about this topic and go the fuck away.
There is a reason that I don't know too much about the mechanics of trading currencies, however, and that is because nobody I deal with is stupid enough to try to make a living doing it. The folks that I deal with generally limit their currency trades to locking in future exchange prices. An the reason for this is simple: nobody can predict day-to-day currency market fluctuations.
As I mentioned above, I have indeed seen many people get their asses handed to them in the currency markets. More often than not this involved guys who thought that they had a fool proof trading system. :)
But good luck with all of that. No doubt with your advanced degree in Economics you have developed a way to keep your finger on the pulse of macroeconomic trends and have a sure fire way to predict day to day exchange rate fluctuations. :)
You are correct that Dougster is full of shit. He likes to re-write history to suit him. His call to buy the dollar at 80.24 took 1 year to be profitable. It did not reach the high 80's untl May-June 2010, not late 2009. If he actually made the trades, he would have known that.
Dougster is the type of individual that knows buzzwords, but not concepts. Regarding my call to short treasuries, it is a low risk position if you want to reduce portfolio volatility. This is almost as low risk for a bond trade as buying zero coupon bonds was in the 80's.
Rates are going to go up, when they do, you can start kissing your stock returns good bye.
I think Dougster just envies the rest of us who actually visit SC's and have a good time. He visits clubs in and around Everett, WA., per Wikipidia, Everett has high crime and low per capita income. These attributes usually are found in areas of poor education. But at least it is a good area for him to park his short bus.
But then Dougster can't be the board bitch unless he posts with vitriolic stupidity.
MrsGMD
05/09/11 5:26 PM
Why don't you all just pull your dicks out and see which one is really biggest. All this comparison by proxy is amusing, but not very productive.
^^^
LOL
IDIOT RICK LOSES AGAIN!
I am using the ETF IEF to track your performance, because you have admitted to using ETFs (like TBT which is 2x short treasuries) in the past although here you are trying to present the image that you are too sophisticated for something as lowly as an ETF.
Finally you have visited strip clubs in Phoenix which has almost exactly the same per capita income as Everett and even more crime. Similarly for Van Nuys. If we apply your own logic, this therefore proves you have little education (not surprising), correct?
http://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=11…
88.71 was the peak, and I said out at 86.97 very shortly after.
Now, if you can so me where, if ever, you said to get out on your call to short treasuries the day before they bottomed in 2009.
And to put an end to this, my comment to short treasury was in comparison to the dollar, I said the money would be made shorting treasuries, not long the dollar. I was right, as my profit was in a day as aresult of a failed auction, and you had to wait out a 1 year decline to get you profit. While you were waiting a year to get your money back, I continued making daily/weekly profits.
Or to restate, you said buy the dollar, when it was at its top.
Huh? I said buy at 80 and then later at 78, and then I said sell at 87, but even though it went much higher than both these points. How is buying at 80 and 78 and then selling at 87 "buying at the top"? You aren't making any sense at all...
Also it's fund that you now you admit that you did trade treasuries through an ETF but above you say you are too sophisticated for that? In another thread you say you don't trade treasuries at all, only stocks? Can't keep your story straight for long, huh?
Your original advice to short treasuries the day before they bottomed was a long term call. A month later you were still saying they were in a long term downtrend. About two years later they are still way above where you said short (there were only a few hours in those years when they were lower than the point where you said to short), and now your advice? Just hang in there and short some more...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42985646
A few weeks ago, even PIMCO announced they had divested themselves of treasury holdings.
And yes Dougster, you did buy at 80 and again at 78, and the dollar coninued to go down for a year afterwards. You had to wait a year to breakeven. Only losers buy downtrends. If you would have truly bought at 10:1 leverage as you claim, you would have had significant losses for a year.
My guess is you never made the trade because you lack the trading and financial acumen.
Your last and greatest lie is true a dandy, trying to convince people that someone who says buy at 80 and 78, and then sell at 87 has "bought the top" and lost money. Good luck with that argument. You can't really think anyone (including yourself) is going to buy it can you?
Here's a little help, tittyfan: top means highest price, but 87 is greater than both 78 and 80, so it cannot be the top.
Here's another tip if you sell something at more than you paid for it, you made money not lost. Guess they didn't teach you that in special ed though, right?
Now let's consider your other lies. You did, indeed, say to short treasuries the day before they bottomed almost two years ago. At one point when the database here was down here, you thought I won't be able to provide evidence so you denied ever making that claim. Ooops, the database came back up and you were busted!
Your next attempt to weasel out: claim you only meant it as a day trade all along, because you knew there would be one more bad auction and that would be it. Problem is everything you were saying then, a week later, a month later, months later, and even now indicated you viewed it as a long term trade. You said China would stop buying and the long term trend was down. Two years later there is absolutely no evidence of either. Your reaction? Hang in there and short some more, and cite some "pundits" on CNBC as your back up. Yep if you are taking your trading advice from CNBC I can see part of your problem. Can't think for yourself.
(Also there were no "failed auctions" in 2009. Do you even know what that means? It means not enough buyers for all the supply. I really don't understand why you lie so much when it is againt facts that can be so readily verified. Really think no one will check what you said?)
Also as you can clearly see above I never advocate going in 10:1 all at once, and never had that leverage on the trade in question (of course, in retrospect I wish I did). Never went above 4:1 on that trade. An initial 2x buy, and then an addition at 2x. Never went above 4:1.
Your numbers are just plain lies to. There was only a four month clear downtrend out the year, and then it bounced back rapidly.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/ind…
It was when the bounce back was very clear that I added. Your reaction then was puzzling, you admitted that the dollar was now going up but called me an idiot for buy some at 78. You were proven quite wrong went it went all the way to 88, and then I got out at 87 very close to the top.
Bottom line here:
You said to short treasuries the day before they bottomed as a long term trade. You've tried to lie and deny this in the past, but you got busted, and switched your story to claiming you only meant it as a day trade, when everything you said at the time, a week later, a month later, months later, and even now suggests you were advocating a long term trade. So far it's been highly unprofitable, and there is no evidence it is turning. Why not post the numbers about how well someone would have done if your advice was so great? Oh I know why you don't do it. Because they would have lost money.
On the other hand, I have evidence all there in black and white, of a highly profit long the dollar trade and getting out right near the optimal point. You are jealous that you have zero evidence of your alleged trading acumen to show to the world. All you can do is say "yes, but rates are going way up soon, I know it!" You have been saying that for two years and nothing has happened except the short position you advocated has remained highly unprofitable. Worst yet you can even admit you are wrong and say get out of the trade.
But, hey, I am always willing to pit my skills against yours for all the world to see. That's what this thread is all about. See the relative performance of your second call to short treasuries versus an alternative I am proposing. Don't be scared tittyfan, let's just let history see who is right. K? luv ya, Dougster.
Today IEF closed at $106.41. Since tittyfan said to short treasuries when IEF was around $93.5 that means anyone who followed his advice would be down about $12.91 for every $93.5 invested just on face value, but with 6 dividends of $0.24 each add another $1.44 for being down $13.35 for each $93.5 invested or down 14.3% in just six months!
Now contrast tittyfan's advice with my advice, which was to go long the dollar at 4:1 leverage averaged in around 75.2. That advice would currently be up 15.8%.