Comments by RandomMember (page 32)

Thanks for another (unintentional) laugh, @LoneWolf. That picture could win a Pulitzer. If I had to imagine the Trump whack-job resistance to the lockdown it would look just like that: a bunch of fat, impotent-looking, middle-aged, white guys toting assault rifles. lol!

20% back from Amica

@Scrub: Pew research found last month that 1/3 of Americans believe the virus was genetically engineered. Are you one of those paranoid right-wing nutcases?

"...and perhaps outright collaborated." ____________________ That's a paranoid fantasy. At worst the WHO was too accepting, early on, and didn't push the Chinese hard enough for real information. Trump's scapegoating the WHO for his own incompetence. Defunding the WHO is being condemned by just about everyone across the globe and by our own AMA (you know, MDs who actually know what they're talking about).

@Ski: "....progressives to cover up the fact they feel more kinship with dirty commies in China than Americans..blah, blah.." ______________ Incredibly stupid comment and it mirrors what Pompeo said about the WHO supporting the goals of the Chinese Communist Party. Now we're cutting funding for the WHO at a time we need them the most.

Pandemics come in waves and we'll almost certainly experience the same thing. The Spanish Flu came in three waves with the later waves more deadly than the first.

^^ Apparently there are several different kinds of antibody tests coming: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/serology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html The "rapid diagnostic test" just shows qualitatively whether a patient has antibodies, but doesn't tell you the number of antibodies or whether the antibodies will be able to protect you in the future. Requires a pinprick and results are ready in 1/2hr. The "neutralization assay" gives a quantitative measure of the number of antibodies and also tells whether the patient is protected in the future. It requires 3-5 days. I think I read (not sure?) that the rapid test will get FDA approval soon and the neutralization assay is several months away. So the neutralization assay is much better if you want to go out mongering and feel any sense of safety.

I think you'd be better off with biotech stocks

Here's the passage about herd immunity by Marc Lipsitch: It is possible that many more cases of Covid-19 have occurred than have been reported, even after accounting for limited testing. One recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that rather than, say, 10 times the number of detected cases, the United States may really have more like 100, or even 1,000, times the official number. This estimate is an indirect inference from statistical correlations. In emergencies, such indirect assessments can be early evidence of an important finding — or statistical flukes. But if this one is correct, then herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be building faster than the commonly reported figures suggest. Then again, another recent study (also not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that not every case of infection may be contributing to herd immunity. Of 175 Chinese patients with mild symptoms of Covid-19, 70 percent developed strong antibody responses, but about 25 percent developed a low response and about 5 percent developed no detectable response at all. Mild illness, in other words, might not always build up protection. Similarly, it will be important to study the immune responses of people with asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection to determine whether symptoms, and their severity, predict whether a person becomes immune.

"Polls accurately predicted the Hillary Clinton landslide" _____________ Polls are based on probability and I remember Nate Silver's polls showing Trump's chance of winning at 33%. That's about the same odds as a batter getting to first base. Polls aren't perfect; this thread is completely useless.

...written by Marc Lipsitch professor at Harvard

^^^This is terrific article addessing many uncertainties about immunity and written by an epidemiologist. There's a paragraph about whether we might be closer to herd immunity: Who Is Immune to the Coronavirus? https://nyti.ms/2yfwSiX You can get behind the pay wall if you're willing to clear cookies on your browser.

Do you understand English? The 61K number is only for the first wave of deaths and assumes a lockdown.

Because a tabulation of comments on Yahoo is utterly useless and proves nothing. A poll by a leading pollster is meaningful. I doubt public opinion has changed from +70% to 1 of 8 in a few weeks. This is the IHME model quoted in Dugan's editorial. It shows, in beautiful graphics, that we'll have about 61K deaths by August 4, 2020 and the curves show the epidemic is over by about June. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america According to the website: "At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. " Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically. Wake up.

Selection of comments on yahoo*

Morning consult showed 70% in favor on March 25: https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-national-quarantine-trump/ Yes, poll is a few weeks old -- but that's what polls are for @LW. A selection of comments on a discussion board is not a poll. The 60K estimate is just for the period until Aug 20, assumes a lockdown, and does not include the possibility of a resugence after Aug 20. Get your facts straight.

I like Sting too, and the way he uses acoustic instruments. All time favorite song is probobly "Fragile."

@prevert: "The US has a few more people than Italy." _________ Yeah, it's hard to take any comment seriously if not presented per capita. The IHME model mentioned in @Dugan's (otherwise idiotic) WSJ editorial shows projected first-wave Covid-19 predicted per capita deaths through Aug 20th. The US is in 11th place with about 1/10th the prected per-capita dealths of Sweden and the Netherlands. Italy is in 7th place in deaths-per-capita. So Sweden is actually #1 OT: What is about right-wing nutcases and the obsession with China?

Fed monetary policy is welfare for the rich. There's nothing to argue about.

That's the last thing on my mind, idiot. We live in a country where we just allocated trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus -- yet we have 10,000 people starving and cramming into a food bank. It's a sad state of affairs.

This is the IHME model quoted in Dugan's editorial. It shows, in beautiful graphics, that we'll have about 61K deaths by August 4, 2020 and the curves show the epidemic is over by about June. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america According to the website: "At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. " Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically.

"...our fed was buying JUNK BONDS on Thursday. " _________________ I wonder, are junk bonds a lower investment grade than the dogshit mortgage-backed securities purchased during the last crisis?

I read @Dugan's WSJ editorial and it's yet another take on "why are we shutting down the economy over something as lethal as the flu? The editorial points out that the latest government model predicts about 60K deaths, which is about the same as the 2018 flu season. Thing is there's massive confusion as to what assumptions go into the government fatality models. Even the experts in the academic community, who were consulted for the study, don't know what assumptions go into the government model. For example, does the new 60K death toll estimate include social distancing? Nobody seems to know? Can anyone here provide a link to an official government source detailing the assumptions that go into the government model? Because an *editorial* in the WSJ is no substitute. Otherwise, take the editorial with a grain of salt. That's why you're better off following the likes of the New England Journal of Medicine or Johns Hopkins that publish transparent assumptions. At this point, I'm willing to believe that the overall case fatality rate of Covid-19 ( 0.1% ) is about the same as the flu. That number was reported by Fauci in NEJM. But we don't have a vaccine for Covid-19 and it's probably a lot more contagious than the flu. If the case fatality rate is 0.1% and half the US gets the disease that corresponds to about 170K deaths. Dropping dead is not the only issue. Younger people recovering from Covid-19 appear to have lasting lung damage and it shows up on CT scans with a ground-glass signature. Autopsies also show the aggressive way Covid-19 attacks lung tissues. As it applies to my own behavior --with all the confusion --I'm not going to risk bringing death and destruction home for the chance of getting my rocks off.

It's "antibody" @Mark, without a hyphen. But maybe you're losing focus and haven't been taking your chloroquine. Herd immunity kicks in when 1/2 to 2/3 of the population recovers from the disease. We're probably nowhere near that. We can either go through another five or ten cycles of social distancing (and destroy the economy) or have a massive increase in testing.

We're never going to get the leadership we need from our clown president or his followers who said thing like "this is all silly -- just go and wash your hands." The way out of this involves testing, tracing, and isolating those that are sick. The governers and the academic community will have to take over. Places like Johns Hopkins and Columbia and people like Bill Gates and Fauci will drive the solution.