Yahoo.com article comments 8 to 1 in opposition to Covid lockdown
Lone_Wolf
Arizona
Was reading some Covid related articles on Yahoo. In the comment section I noticed it's about 8 to 1 commentors opposing the lockdown.
This indicates to me most the population does not agree with the lockdown and are quickly losing patience with the lockdown.
I suspect the polititions will start opening the country soon regardless of the advice from the medical experts.
This indicates to me most the population does not agree with the lockdown and are quickly losing patience with the lockdown.
I suspect the polititions will start opening the country soon regardless of the advice from the medical experts.
Got something to say?
Start your own discussion
41 comments
I do think the country is losing patience and some loosening is coming in May. But most schools are probably out untill Summer.
This is what happens when, sky is falling, numbers 2.2m estimates turn into less than 60k estimates. Folks quick believing even if there is a good explanation for it.
Start messing with people's liveyhood, there better be a very clear and present danger that can be measured against the sacrifice.
I don't think the masses are seeing it.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/25/co…
Yes, poll is a few weeks old -- but that's what polls are for @LW. A selection of comments on a discussion board is not a poll.
The 60K estimate is just for the period until Aug 20, assumes a lockdown, and does not include the possibility of a resugence after Aug 20. Get your facts straight.
My mention of the 60k estimate is a reflection of the perception of the commentors.
It is not me you have to convince.
This is the IHME model quoted in Dugan's editorial. It shows, in beautiful graphics, that we'll have about 61K deaths by August 4, 2020 and the curves show the epidemic is over by about June.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-st…
According to the website:
"At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. "
Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically.
Wake up.
All Im saying is the Yahoo commentors seem to be overwhelming opposed to the lockdown.
I believe this is accurate representation of the overall public view.
I also believe public opinion can change that dramatically in three weeks versus your cited poll.
Cuomo says he wants New York 'to reopen as soon as possible'
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/…
Of course, the shutdown cannot last indefinitely. I think I read somewhere that 30% of people didn't make their rent or mortgage payment on April 1. That number will increase on May 1. You can just feel that the momentum is switching, and the voices that are getting louder in April will get very loud in May. Hopefully with continuing social distancing as able and wearing masks, and perhaps hope of a vaccine or cure many sectors of the economy can start to return to some sense of normalcy in May. The pressure to do so will be immense.
What I think will take a bit longer is the travel industry and the entertainment industry, as they involve a lot of people, in close quarters, with very little opportunity for social distancing.
Personally, I definitely have cabin fever and want to get out. My wife and I are the lucky ones who both work from home. But other than grocery shopping and a trip to Home Depot we haven't been out. It will be very hard to convince me to go out on a plane or to a concert until I have been vaccinated, have immunity or there's a cure. My employer may feel differently and that will be an interesting discussion as I do normally travel for work.
There is no good answer. "Open" back up too soon, and you may lose all the good you did from the last few months and the curve steepens again, or a next wave shows up. Continue to wait, and the economy and people's livelihoods get worse each week. Glad I'm not a politician having to make those decisions.
My point exactly. There seems to have been a swift and dramatic swing in public support of the lockdown. Opposition is very vocal.
Polititions are in a no win position here.
The best hope is a vaccine or antibodies.
but it is still a risk.
life is a risk.
Who Is Immune to the Coronavirus?
https://nyti.ms/2yfwSiX
You can get behind the pay wall if you're willing to clear cookies on your browser.
_____________
Polls are based on probability and I remember Nate Silver's polls showing Trump's chance of winning at 33%. That's about the same odds as a batter getting to first base. Polls aren't perfect; this thread is completely useless.
It is possible that many more cases of Covid-19 have occurred than have been reported, even after accounting for limited testing. One recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that rather than, say, 10 times the number of detected cases, the United States may really have more like 100, or even 1,000, times the official number. This estimate is an indirect inference from statistical correlations. In emergencies, such indirect assessments can be early evidence of an important finding — or statistical flukes. But if this one is correct, then herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be building faster than the commonly reported figures suggest.
Then again, another recent study (also not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that not every case of infection may be contributing to herd immunity. Of 175 Chinese patients with mild symptoms of Covid-19, 70 percent developed strong antibody responses, but about 25 percent developed a low response and about 5 percent developed no detectable response at all. Mild illness, in other words, might not always build up protection. Similarly, it will be important to study the immune responses of people with asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection to determine whether symptoms, and their severity, predict whether a person becomes immune.
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/…
The "rapid diagnostic test" just shows qualitatively whether a patient has antibodies, but doesn't tell you the number of antibodies or whether the antibodies will be able to protect you in the future. Requires a pinprick and results are ready in 1/2hr.
The "neutralization assay" gives a quantitative measure of the number of antibodies and also tells whether the patient is protected in the future. It requires 3-5 days.
I think I read (not sure?) that the rapid test will get FDA approval soon and the neutralization assay is several months away. So the neutralization assay is much better if you want to go out mongering and feel any sense of safety.
I've read the same. But, they also think it's more likely people who've had mild, asymptomatic cases didn't build the antibodies and might not be immune.
But really, they don't know shit yet. Because it's not "like the flu", which has been studied exhaustively with millions and billions of dollars over the last 100+ years. This has been studied for 3 months now...
The important question is, how can we make sure SkiBum gets infected and dies and slow, torturous and excruciating death?
Here's a recent small poll on the same topic -- 71% in favor of not returning to normal activities immediately. The widespread open rebellion predicted by others weeks ago hasn't happened, just little pockets of defiance from predictable places (some younger people, some people on the far right), but by and large there's mass popular support as shown in most polls https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/04/…
I'll continue to say I think the economic damage is significant and we need to open fast. Our leadership has failed on a national level to get us to the conditions where doing so can be done safely, and I imagine they'll be held accountable at the polls. But having squandered the option to set and meet conditions to do so more safely, we'll be stuck in coming weeks with some difficult choies
On the flip side, all of these models have been wrong. Nobody what could have happened of what will happen. There will be catastrophic economic fallout, and Trump was right to create a task force specifically convened to get people back to work and repair the economy.
This is my understanding as well. I'm not sure the general public is getting it.
Most of us will get it. We are just buying time to build up medical resources. I think there is some sort of misconception that this is just going away.
My best guess is strip clubs are going to be among the last venues to reopen This is not going to be something that is just going to just happen it’s going to be as difficult to reopen and keep everything under control as it was to get to this point. I don’t see normal returning until either a vaccine or a cure is found and deployed.
That's right, we are buying time for a few things to happen, among them, being able to switch to a different strategy that doesn't require stringent lockdowns -- e.g. the one strategy we know works, test & trace. But if, for example, the time has been squandered, then expect slower release of the lockdowns in proportion to test scale.
To be clear with you, I'm agreeing with you; I think the question is, given where we are with testing resources, at what speed can we back off. The faster the better, obviously.
In other promising news, the potential drug pipeline seems to keep growing. There's a number of medications that are targeted at parasites (cheap and plentiful) that are being looked at, in addition to all those monoclonal antibody medications, etc.
Bottom line is we got caught with our pants down and were unprepared and also did not react quickly enough - we are still trying to pull our pants up but they are at best up to our knees - I'm more concerned with having the right systems in place in order to have a more successful opening-up vs being concerned as to exactly when.
One testing facility at the Miami Dolphins stadium is open to anyone that feels they may have come into contact w/ someone that had Corona - they opened at 9am and by 11am they had ran thru their allotment of testing - still it took until 1:30 pm for the last car to be processed and that person had been in line since about 6:30 am - that's not gonna f'ing cut-it w.r.t. testing especially one-month into this.