Was reading some Covid related articles on Yahoo. In the comment section I noticed it's about 8 to 1 commentors opposing the lockdown.
This indicates to me most the population does not agree with the lockdown and are quickly losing patience with the lockdown.
I suspect the polititions will start opening the country soon regardless of the advice from the medical experts.
@JamesSD - Russian bots? Possibly. Seems more like a population that has lost faith in the decision makers.
This is what happens when, sky is falling, numbers 2.2m estimates turn into less than 60k estimates. Folks quick believing even if there is a good explanation for it.
Start messing with people's liveyhood, there better be a very clear and present danger that can be measured against the sacrifice.
I don't think the masses are seeing it.
Morning consult showed 70% in favor on March 25:
Yes, poll is a few weeks old -- but that's what polls are for @LW. A selection of comments on a discussion board is not a poll.
The 60K estimate is just for the period until Aug 20, assumes a lockdown, and does not include the possibility of a resugence after Aug 20. Get your facts straight.
Selection of comments on yahoo*
@RM - Where did I say it was a poll? Also, citing a 3 week old poll in this changing environment borders on absurd.
My mention of the 60k estimate is a reflection of the perception of the commentors.
It is not me you have to convince.
Because a tabulation of comments on Yahoo is utterly useless and proves nothing. A poll by a leading pollster is meaningful. I doubt public opinion has changed from +70% to 1 of 8 in a few weeks.
This is the IHME model quoted in Dugan's editorial. It shows, in beautiful graphics, that we'll have about 61K deaths by August 4, 2020 and the curves show the epidemic is over by about June.
According to the website:
"At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained. "
Do you understand where the 61K number comes from? It assumes that after this wave of deaths has run its course the epidemic will disappear magically.
Wake up.
Do you understand English? The 61K number is only for the first wave of deaths and assumes a lockdown.
@RM - I'm not sure why you are try convince me of something.
All Im saying is the Yahoo commentors seem to be overwhelming opposed to the lockdown.
I believe this is accurate representation of the overall public view.
I also believe public opinion can change that dramatically in three weeks versus your cited poll.
@LW anytime comments are available the folks that disagrees are the ones driving the comments, the folks that agree mostly don’t comment so going by the comments is a very dodgy way to gauge common sentiment.
I don't claim to have the answer. It's a dilemma.
Of course, the shutdown cannot last indefinitely. I think I read somewhere that 30% of people didn't make their rent or mortgage payment on April 1. That number will increase on May 1. You can just feel that the momentum is switching, and the voices that are getting louder in April will get very loud in May. Hopefully with continuing social distancing as able and wearing masks, and perhaps hope of a vaccine or cure many sectors of the economy can start to return to some sense of normalcy in May. The pressure to do so will be immense.
What I think will take a bit longer is the travel industry and the entertainment industry, as they involve a lot of people, in close quarters, with very little opportunity for social distancing.
Personally, I definitely have cabin fever and want to get out. My wife and I are the lucky ones who both work from home. But other than grocery shopping and a trip to Home Depot we haven't been out. It will be very hard to convince me to go out on a plane or to a concert until I have been vaccinated, have immunity or there's a cure. My employer may feel differently and that will be an interesting discussion as I do normally travel for work.
There is no good answer. "Open" back up too soon, and you may lose all the good you did from the last few months and the curve steepens again, or a next wave shows up. Continue to wait, and the economy and people's livelihoods get worse each week. Glad I'm not a politician having to make those decisions.
@Steverox - "1. You can just feel that the momentum is switching"
My point exactly. There seems to have been a swift and dramatic swing in public support of the lockdown. Opposition is very vocal.
Polititions are in a no win position here.
Empty can rattles the most...
there is no absolute safety anywhere (and anytime) you go.
The best hope is a vaccine or antibodies.
but it is still a risk.
life is a risk.
There has been some antibody testing studies come out that look promising. One in a town in Germany, the other I believe in the Chicago area. They both indicated that this may be much more widespread than recently thought, getting us closer to "herd immunity" and also being indicative that this may not be as deadly as feared. Far from conclusive and still early but let's hope further antibody testing studies being done will eventually have the same results, getting us out of jail.
^^^This is terrific article addessing many uncertainties about immunity and written by an epidemiologist. There's a paragraph about whether we might be closer to herd immunity:
Who Is Immune to the Coronavirus? nyti.ms
You can get behind the pay wall if you're willing to clear cookies on your browser.
...written by Marc Lipsitch professor at Harvard
Polls accurately predicted the Hillary Clinton landslide. Americans sold their freedom for the illusion of safety, but then again with the foreign born population here the highest in history, we're really just an extension of other fucked up countries and not America any longer.
"Polls accurately predicted the Hillary Clinton landslide"
Polls are based on probability and I remember Nate Silver's polls showing Trump's chance of winning at 33%. That's about the same odds as a batter getting to first base. Polls aren't perfect; this thread is completely useless.
Here's the passage about herd immunity by Marc Lipsitch:
It is possible that many more cases of Covid-19 have occurred than have been reported, even after accounting for limited testing. One recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that rather than, say, 10 times the number of detected cases, the United States may really have more like 100, or even 1,000, times the official number. This estimate is an indirect inference from statistical correlations. In emergencies, such indirect assessments can be early evidence of an important finding — or statistical flukes. But if this one is correct, then herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be building faster than the commonly reported figures suggest.
Then again, another recent study (also not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that not every case of infection may be contributing to herd immunity. Of 175 Chinese patients with mild symptoms of Covid-19, 70 percent developed strong antibody responses, but about 25 percent developed a low response and about 5 percent developed no detectable response at all. Mild illness, in other words, might not always build up protection. Similarly, it will be important to study the immune responses of people with asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection to determine whether symptoms, and their severity, predict whether a person becomes immune.
I think they are now saying that having had Covid-19 doesn't absolutely mean one is immune from reinfection.
^^ Apparently there are several different kinds of antibody tests coming:
The "rapid diagnostic test" just shows qualitatively whether a patient has antibodies, but doesn't tell you the number of antibodies or whether the antibodies will be able to protect you in the future. Requires a pinprick and results are ready in 1/2hr.
The "neutralization assay" gives a quantitative measure of the number of antibodies and also tells whether the patient is protected in the future. It requires 3-5 days.
I think I read (not sure?) that the rapid test will get FDA approval soon and the neutralization assay is several months away. So the neutralization assay is much better if you want to go out mongering and feel any sense of safety.
^ 👍
"I think they are now saying that having had Covid-19 doesn't absolutely mean one is immune from reinfection."
I've read the same. But, they also think it's more likely people who've had mild, asymptomatic cases didn't build the antibodies and might not be immune.
But really, they don't know shit yet. Because it's not "like the flu", which has been studied exhaustively with millions and billions of dollars over the last 100+ years. This has been studied for 3 months now...
^^ "But, they also think it's more likely people who've had mild, asymptomatic cases didn't build the antibodies and might not be immune." The important question is, how can we make sure SkiBum gets infected and dies and slow, torturous and excruciating death?
LW, comments on a yahoo article are not representative of anything, that's widely known. I would not quote comments on a yahoo article even if they held the same view as me. Article-bombing is well known on the left, on the right, for anyone with a special interest, etc.
Here's a recent small poll on the same topic -- 71% in favor of not returning to normal activities immediately. The widespread open rebellion predicted by others weeks ago hasn't happened, just little pockets of defiance from predictable places (some younger people, some people on the far right), but by and large there's mass popular support as shown in most polls upi.com
I'll continue to say I think the economic damage is significant and we need to open fast. Our leadership has failed on a national level to get us to the conditions where doing so can be done safely, and I imagine they'll be held accountable at the polls. But having squandered the option to set and meet conditions to do so more safely, we'll be stuck in coming weeks with some difficult choies
Remember, the stated purpose of the stay home orders and forced closures is to slow the frequency of infections, not reduce the number. The rationale being that healthcare systems and the generl population will have more time to adapt, plan, prepare before we see the peak numbers of infected. In that sense, an argument that these orders are working can be made.
On the flip side, all of these models have been wrong. Nobody what could have happened of what will happen. There will be catastrophic economic fallout, and Trump was right to create a task force specifically convened to get people back to work and repair the economy.
GAmma, 100% agree that: 1. the economic damage is significant, 2. it's the president's job to lead us out of it. He's unfortunately hurt his credibility because such a critical part of #2 was to define and drive us towards the conditions by which this could happen as quickly as possible with the best possible tradeoffs
@Gamma - "the stated purpose of the stay home orders and forced closures is to slow the frequency of infections, not reduce the number."
This is my understanding as well. I'm not sure the general public is getting it.
Most of us will get it. We are just buying time to build up medical resources. I think there is some sort of misconception that this is just going away.
I don’t realistically believe that we are going to be able to reopen entertainment venues until mid summer if everything is done perfectly the the National Movie theater association doesn’t expect to open before Memorial Day I’ve seen an article saying that the AMC movie group is going to file for bankruptcy soon and Darden Restaurants operator of both Red Lobster and Olive Garden May also be examining that option My best guess is strip clubs are going to be among the last venues to reopen This is not going to be something that is just going to just happen it’s going to be as difficult to reopen and keep everything under control as it was to get to this point. I don’t see normal returning until either a vaccine or a cure is found and deployed.
"Most of us will get it. We are just buying time to build up medical resources. I think there is some sort of misconception that this is just going away."
That's right, we are buying time for a few things to happen, among them, being able to switch to a different strategy that doesn't require stringent lockdowns -- e.g. the one strategy we know works, test & trace. But if, for example, the time has been squandered, then expect slower release of the lockdowns in proportion to test scale.
To be clear with you, I'm agreeing with you; I think the question is, given where we are with testing resources, at what speed can we back off. The faster the better, obviously.
In other promising news, the potential drug pipeline seems to keep growing. There's a number of medications that are targeted at parasites (cheap and plentiful) that are being looked at, in addition to all those monoclonal antibody medications, etc.
"... we are buying time for a few things to happen, among them, being able to switch to a different strategy that doesn't require stringent lockdowns ..."
Bottom line is we got caught with our pants down and were unprepared and also did not react quickly enough - we are still trying to pull our pants up but they are at best up to our knees - I'm more concerned with having the right systems in place in order to have a more successful opening-up vs being concerned as to exactly when.
Just saw on my local news about testing.
One testing facility at the Miami Dolphins stadium is open to anyone that feels they may have come into contact w/ someone that had Corona - they opened at 9am and by 11am they had ran thru their allotment of testing - still it took until 1:30 pm for the last car to be processed and that person had been in line since about 6:30 am - that's not gonna f'ing cut-it w.r.t. testing especially one-month into this.
The testing looks very promising. Less intrusive and results within minutes.
depends on which yahoo article you choose to read the comments. there are many articles where the ratio are the exact opposite
I noticed more cars/traffic and people out today in my area (Miami) - anyone notice a difference in your area?
Supposedly domestic-abuse is up double-digits during the lockdown (no surprise I guess)
The only change in Jax traffic is we have no rush hour or school buses at dawn and dusk. Other than that, traffic is unchanged. Our closed non-essential business list is laughable.
I would like to think so but the polling data I've seen are about 2 to 1 in favor. There are going to be some rallies across the country on Saturday demanding re-opening but I don't think the public is there yet.
Polling data lol? Most of the left gets their news from CNN who copies and pastes articles written by the Chinese Government. Polling data and the Hillary Clinton landslide....
Nofuglies - its not article specific - its timne specific. The earliest comments are always anti-trump, pro loser because Europe is 5-8 hours ahead of us; then the east coast. The later in the day the cooments, the more pro-american, because thats when Americans are awake.
Probably what you're seeing is a mix of Russian bots (they love the Yahoo comment section shit show) and the most opposed voices being the loudest. People who are generally ok with they way things are don't usually write internet comments to complain.
I do think the country is losing patience and some loosening is coming in May. But most schools are probably out untill Summer.