Comments by mark94 (page 41)

The most facts in the fewest words. I hate reviews that read like a ( poorly written ) novel but have no useful information for readers.

I am increasingly convinced that we would be better off without a Fed trying to manipulate the economy. This cycle of boom and bust is largely a result of the Fed over reacting, both to stimulate the economy and pump the brakes to control inflation.

The best time to go to BSC is during the day when there isn’t a surge of tourists in town. Even so, this has never been a club for high mileage. Plus, it’s always tough to get the attention of the top tier dancers at BSC. It gets its high rating because it is usually a 7-up club during the day and, outside the weeks when there are major events, the ratio of dancers to customers is typically 1 to 1. That’s because there are fewer locals willing to pay $20.

Saying that inflation is “ basically over “ is a lot different than saying it’s “ over”. I contend that some things, like rent and home prices, will go down in 2023 while some things, like food and energy, will go up. If that happens, Mate could ( and probably will ) argue that inflation is “ basically over”. Basically is one of those weasel words that lets prognosticators cover for their inaccurate predictions. In 2022, inflation was 8%. In 2023, it will be a bifurcated 4%. Now, that’s a prediction.

Personally. my top clubs were Mitchell Brothers in SF, Candy Store in Tucson, and Hi Liter in Phoenix. Mitchell Brothers is now closed, Candy Store has a different name ( Venom ) and atmosphere, and Hi Liter is a shadow of what it once was “ before the raid”.

For 70 years, we had easy global trade. Those days are rapidly ending because the US is no longer prepared to use its military and economy to facilitate global trade. In fact, Americans are demanding jobs return to the US from Chinese factories. This is changing the way the world economy operates. It will take 10 years for business to adapt to this environment. Each country will need to be largely self sufficient or form alliances with other countries for trade. No longer will we buy our goods from the cheapest possible global source. This will result in a baseline rise in inflation as products are sourced from more expensive suppliers, many of them in North America rather than China.

“US stocks could surge 20% in the first 6 months of 2023 “ Or, they might drop 20% Or, maybe pigs will fly Not exactly a bold prediction. Or, any kind of prediction.

Things get weird, and crowded, at HL during peak tourist season. Bowl games. Phoenix Open. Super Bowl. Barrett Jackson. Spring training. During those times, I either stay away from clubs or go to a club less frequented by out of town era.

Incidentally, from Justthenews.com, some doubt cast on the accuracy of government economic numbers: “A recent string of errors and apparent discrepancies in federal statistics has raised concerns that such metrics, long regarded as irreproachably nonpartisan and credible, may have fallen prey to manipulation in favor of the incumbent Democratic Party. The three most glaring recent examples of such statistical misfires are: the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reported overestimate of second quarter job growth by a sizable margin; the Census Bureau's population overcounts of blue states and undercounts of red states — in a reapportionment year; the apparent disappearance of 50,000 asylum applications from the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR).“

Stock analysts know they are safe in predicting a stock price as long as they don’t also predict the date when it will hit that price. That way, they are guaranteed to be right ( some day ). As best I can tell, Mate has predicted lower inflation in the not-too-distant future. That’s a pretty safe bet. If inflation drops to 4%-6% sometime in 2023 ( or maybe even 2024 ), he has the wiggle room to declare he was right. Now, if he had predicted 2% inflation within 3 months, that would have been a BHAG ( Big, hairy,audacious goal ), Can we all accept inflation will be lower within a year or two ?

I think I’ll try this: “FTX paid roughly $84 million in 2020 to take a majority stake in Blockfolio, in what was then among the largest crypto acquisitions. About 94% was paid in FTT tokens, a cryptocurrency that FTX created”

Only when the tide goes out, do you see who has been swimming naked. Recessions reveal businesses with poor business models or bad management. The weak clubs will close.

A surprising portion of historical gains in the market take place in the days or weeks after the market bottoms. If you miss out on that 10%-20% after every correction, it really adds up. If you miss that run up 10 times in a lifetime, you can halve your retirement account. That’s why market timers tend to underperform the buy and hold crowd.

“Is there some sort of system….” I’ve ridden through both recessions and inflation over the decades. I’m convinced the best system is to stay in a diverse group of stocks and wait for the uptick. The only way for a system to work is if you can predict when the market will hit bottom. I sure as hell can’t.

Customers will continue to go to strip clubs but their dollars-per-visit will drop. Dancers will rely even more on the high spending regulars who remain. VIP mileage will increase for those with money. There will be more competition and conflict between dancers trying to get their share of income.

Several years ago, someone did a study of food aid going to Africa. They discovered, in areas that got regular food aid, people had stopped farming. It was a rational decision since food was available for free. The people became dependent on the aid and lost the knowledge of farming. You want to help the poor ? Tie any aid to them either getting a job or entering a training program. Don’t take away their ambition and self respect.

There are several underlying causes of inflation. 1. consumers buying houses, cars, and everything else. Raising rates has already tamped this down by raising rates. 2. Dramatic increase in money supply. Fed is addressing this very gradually. 3. energy prices affected by supply constraints, including Russian sanction and Biden attack on oil industry. No one is doing anything about this 4. Supply chain problems cut supply of good resulting in higher prices.Chinese policies have caused this and problems will continue for years until production returns to North America. 5. Congress passing multiple, trillion dollar, spending frenzies. In theory, a Republican Congress could freeze this but Mitch MConnel has caved another trillion right now. Inflation will ease somewhat but it will be a couple years before it reaches the target rate of 2%.

But, digital currency will provide wealth for all.

“Uh where are you finding this rent that's dropping??? Just wondering. lol!” Rent prices saw the largest one-month drop in at least seven years last month, according to the real estate marketplace Zillow.

Those on the right believe that most people are competent and capable of taking care of themselves and making educated decisions. Those on the left believe most people ( other than themselves, of course ) are weak, incompetent, bigoted, and uneducated. These great unwashed require the government to keep them in line and make decisions for them. And, of course, anyone on the right who becomes successful must have cheated, stolen, or had the money handed to them.

For anyone interested in living a simpler life, I recommend reading Walden by Henry David Thoreau. Reading it could change your life.

The first, and best, explanation of all this is the classic economic study by Thorstein Veblens called “ Theory of the Leisure Class” where he coined the phrase “ Conspicuous Consumption”.

People in their 60s and 70s grew up in a time where the typical household had fewer financial demands. Smaller houses. Fewer cars. Modest vacations. No social media telling us we were failures unless could afford to buy myriad things. For us, living below our means seems natural. Younger people grew up in an environment where they were bombarded with media telling them the key to happiness was living a celebrity lifestyle. Driving the right cars. Exotic vacations. Designer clothes. All the tech. For younger people, living below your means is a bizarre concept.

There was a groundbreaking study/book in 1996 called The Millionaire Next Door. According to Wiki: “The authors compare the behaviour of those they call "UAWs" (Under Accumulators of Wealth) and those who are "PAWs" (Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth). Their findings, that millionaires are disproportionately clustered in middle-class and blue-collar neighborhoods and not in more affluent or white-collar communities, came as a surprise to the authors who anticipated the contrary. Stanley and Danko's book explains why, noting that high-income white-collar professionals are more likely to devote their income to luxury goods or status items, thus neglecting savings and investments.”

Living in LA, SF, or NYC is a choice. For those with moderate incomes, it might be an IQ test. Someone making $50,000 to $75,000 finds it nearly impossible to provide for a family in those cities. However, in most places in the US, that’s enough to live comfortably.