Around here its very seasonal. So it's hard to really assess the situation. I went on a little bit of a club hopping trip last weekend. I felt like quality was substantially down and clubs were noticeably slower. But, our clubs always slow down in the summer as the snowbirds return north. Things usually pick back up as the weather cools with Thanksgiving kinda being the major milestone to signal that they have returned. I can't tell if our clubs are still suffering from the summer slowdowns or if there as really been a lasting downturn.
As far as clubs opening and closing, around here I think it's quite rare for either to happen. Sure, clubs fail all the time. And sure, truly new clubs are rarely open. But, the licensing seems to be what's really controlling the population. I'd say the number of clubs in Broward county where Pompano Beach is and Palm Beach hasn't really changed in about 20 years. Broward lost two, the old Solid Gold/Pure Platinum locations, but that's all I can think of. In Palm Beach the old Mermaid closed but they added what's now ORA about 5 miles away to keep the count the same. Most of the other changes were just one club failing and someone else coming in to the same location with a new one, in a few cases the license may have moved to a new neighborhood in the same county but a new municipality with more accommodating regulations. Dade county where Miami is is probably a pretty similar story, there's just too many damn clubs down there to keep track of so I'm not really confident as confident in saying it.
We'll see what things look like the weekend after Thanksgiving and the following first weekend in December. Between the ones coming to visit family here for that, and the ones who wait till after celebrating with their families up north to come down, we should see a big uptick in demand. Since it corresponds with rent being due, we should have an uptick in supply. Then between the word getting out that there's money in the clubs and the need for money for Christmas presents and New Years celebrations, the next few weeks tend to boom a bit.
I'm no expert, but I presume there are areas that are basically the exact opposite of here. When all those people come down here, the clubs somewhere have to be emptying. And I'd guess they might empty out a little earlier, as guys in lower mileage areas start saving up a little to take advantage of what's on offer down in liberal south Florida. Perhaps you guys up north are seeing the start of that now & having a little "the sky is falling" moment when it's just seasonal ebb? I know I've had a few of those this summer and had to remind myself what time of year it was.