tuscl

Dancers think things bad now - wait until recession gets going

Tuesday, January 22, 2008 3:41 AM
Last recession (a very mild one) was not made official until 2 years later. Here's the actual report from July 17th 2003 CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- "The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II." The problem now is first, the massive easy money spigot turned on by the Fed because of 911 events - cannot be utilized in part due to a huge run on the dollar over the past year or so. Second, the unprecendented massive credit bubble of the last 6 years is now starting to unwind. Given the amount of debt being carried by the average consumer, even a mild recession would have catastrophic effects on the economy, so dancers probably haven't seen anything yet. They need at minimum to cut down buying X box games for their layabout unemployed/disemployed boyfriends

16 comments

  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    Greenspan was not perfect but this new Fed Chairman Bernake is certainly not helping things. Now we see this morning a massive 3/4 of a percens drop in interest rates - basically a signal to the rest of the world the Fed is in panic mode. Easy money will hot fix the basic economic problem in america: too much debt held by the average consumer. The average american has grown lazy and sloppy expecting foreign savers to finance our consumption - or worse not even realizing this was occuring
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    David, how does a bunch of guys with lots of spare time on their hands and collecting unemployment hurt strip clubs? Seems to me if that happens it'll help a lot of clubs, not hurt them. Especially those that sell cheap beer.
  • Ironcat
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    16 years ago
    It will be interesting to see which market forces prevail - supply (more women getting into the SC industry) and demand (less patrons due to less discretionary income)would suggest that with fewer patrons, LD prices should fall. On the other hand, fear of inflation and the falling value of the dollar may drive up the price of a dance. Dancers might just hold out for higher prices. Will this drive women out of the business or lure new dancers in with the lack of unskilled labor type jobs?
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    Fondl - I agree that its not necessarily the strip clubs but the dancers that will take the big hit, am I'm noticing reasonably good traffic in some of these clubs, but these guys appear to be possibly layed off from contruction or something similar, and/or they are just flat broke - since multiple dancers tell me these same guys won't spend a single nickel on dances. If clubs can keep traffic reasonably high and sell the 2 drink mins - they will do pretty well because strip clubs are pretty good entertainment value if you concentrate on the 2 dollar tip rail instead of the 25 dollar (or whatever) dances. By the way unemployment insurance will not pay anywhere near what residential construction tradesman are used to getting paid, plus for the illegals, they are off the books anyways, with no unemployment insurance ready to step in.
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    David, unemployment may not cover 100% of the exaggerated incomes that these guys have gotten used to, but it still pays pretty well. And every unemployed construction worker I've ever known did fairly well working under the table in addition to hisgovernment check, when steady work wasn't there. And I doubt that illegal immigrants spend much in strip clubs, the ones I've seen in clubs never spent anything other than the required beer or two, they don't even tip the dancers. I agree that dancers will have a more difficult time making big bucks. But I think that's more due to over suppy than to lack of demand. And over supply in any field is a sign that the workers in that field are overpaid in relation to other jobs. So unless dancers can raise artificial barriers to entry (eg. unionize) some downward adjustment in incomes is inevitable. Not only inevitable but necessary. When girls come here and argue that their time is worth $500 an hour, as has recently happened, that ought to tell you that something is seriously out of wack.
  • casualguy
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    16 years ago
    I remember one night in a club there were a lot of Mexicans visiting. Maybe they were legal but I didn't know and wasn't paying too much attention. Apparently the dancers weren't too happy because I got the impression from one dancer that they didn't buy dances and didn't even tip hardly ever. Explains why the dancers kept making a beeline to me when they saw me. I guess if someone is in a big crowd and most of that crowd isn't spending money, it's a safe bet to say dancers will look for more obvious targets. Maybe I need to find a rock disguise, lol, if I want to save money.
  • BobbyI
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    16 years ago
    I feel bad for these poor strippers who will be hurt if there is a recession. Since my job is pretty secure, I will offer to help them out with a little cash. All they have to do is suck my dick in return. What could be easier? Practically free money!!
  • casualguy
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    16 years ago
    I guess if I end up staying home more often, I just hope my favorites keep working so strip clubs won't suck big time whenever I do decide to go visit. I'll be less inclined to visit strip clubs if the girls don't look any better than the average girl working at Wal-mart or even look worse than the average girl you see on the street. Actually I've already seen that in a few instances. All I thought was eewww, gross, how did she get a job working as a stripper? Yuck. She's ugly and very very fat. She only worked there for a few weeks but that seemed like too long.
  • Book Guy
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    16 years ago
    Nice thing about holding out and not visiting for a while, all the dancers seem fresh and new (and many are!) when you do return. :)
  • minnow
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    16 years ago
    David: Which clubs have you noticed "reasonably good traffic" in? How about writing reviews on those clubs and providing us with more insightful and cogent insights?
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    "David: Which clubs have you noticed "reasonably good traffic" in? How about writing reviews on those clubs and providing us with more insightful and cogent insights?" Don't hold your breath because specific clubs will never be indentified by me, for reasons too complicated to explain. Meanwhile as far as insight, look back on my posts from 4 to 5 months ago, I was calling a major economic downturn when others were dismissing dancer complaints related to this issue - as standard stripper shit.
  • FONDL
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    16 years ago
    David, I do indeed recall you predicting a major downturn in the third quarter, in fact I remember that you said it had probably already started. And third quarter GNP growth turned out to be above average in spite of the major downturn in the housing industry, which is already behind us. Just because the popular media likes to exaggerate our problems doesn't mean that we have to buy their BS. We may well have a mild recession this year, but chances of the major downturn that you are predicting are remote. Strippers may have a lot of problems, but except for girls working in certain hard-hit areas, the economy isn't one of them.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    Fondl - note my posts begin late in the 3rd quarter and the numbers now show a major hit to the economy during the 4th quarter of 20007 (which is w/o any doubt what I was referring to) You really think I get the bulk of my information from the "popular media"? I have to laugh at that one. You state "..and third quarter GNP growth turned out to be above average in spite of the major downturn in the housing industry, which is already behind us." That's your opinion and its wishful thinking not supported by reality. There's no evidence the housing downturn is behind us, in fact the valatuation declines are continuing unabated in nearly all major markets. It will take multiple years, maybe 3 to 5 years or more, to unwind the damage caused by this massive credit bubble. Just this week, it turns out the BOND INSURERS who were purportedly guaranteeing these CDOs (collateralized mortgage debt obligations) - are themselves set to go under, and will probably need a massive bailout of some type, whether via private interests or government intervention. Add to this huge problems emerging with credit cards, automobile loans, and home equity loans - and this credit unwinding is a massive issue and this will have a massive impact on the economy. The FED, which is now pushing the panic button, is clearly caught between dumping the dollar or pushing easy-money to desperately attempt to avoid or mitigate a recession - and both roads lead to a decline or some kind of major hit on the economy in the U.S.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    Here's an excerpt from the Assoc Press story explaining why the DOW is up today MBIA Chief Executive Gary Dunton told investors in a conference call Thursday he is confident the company can retain its crucial AAA credit rating and that MBIA will still be able to raise fresh capital, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Dunton's comments appeared to reassure investors that bond insurers aren't necessarily headed for collapse. Credit markets remain tight, however, as investors are still having trouble sorting solid debt from that tainted by bad debts on mortgages.
  • David9999
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    16 years ago
    The prior post refers to MBIA which is a major bond insurer and by "fresh capital", aside from any industry sponsored bailout, there is little doubt MBIA chief Dunton is referring to primarily either asian or middle eastern oil money - because these are the parties that have a huge stake riding on there not being a major economic downturn in the United States. So the parties awash in dollars, now want to lend or invest MORE dollars to keep the original credit bubble from completely collapsing. That doesn't fix the underlying problem, it just delays either a major recession or maybe in a worst case, a depression. By the way if MBIA and similar reinsurers were to fail, far more than mortgage backed securities would be affected, for example the massive municipal bond market (which primarily consists of domestic lenders and investors in effect "bribed" via tax benefits) - the results would be almost unthinkable in terms of the impact on the U.S. economy. Of course the U.S. govt would step in before the total collapse, however the cost of capital for all kinds of lending would have to steeply rise, no matter how it was "fixed"
  • Book Guy
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    16 years ago
    I'm looking forward to lower interest rates, since I'm planning on taking out major personal loans to finance school starting in the Fall.
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