The economy

Well the election is coming up in 3 weeks. You can vote for the party that you have always voted for or you can vote on the issues.

The first 3 examples you gave (oil, inflation, interest rates) are global, not limited to US and Biden is the biggest dumb (sic) son of a bitch in the country? Ok Einstein.

What scares me more is his obvious declining cognitive abilities. His age was an issue in the last ejection but enough voters hated Trump so much they settled for Biden. Yet the MSM mostly ignores his current mental state

Hey let’s face it no matter what side you sit on, with the way US politics are going, wars now with nuclear threats, Chinas housing financing issue potentially collapsing their entire economy, continued oil, supply and demand issues, we’re screwed for the rest of the decade.

Just pray that unemployment numbers stay low so people can have jobs.

I contend, with the right policies, the US could completely turn things around in 2 years. Even with Biden in office, two years of Republican control of Congress could stop Biden from making things worse. Elect the right President in 2024, and things will be back to normal by 2026. Control crime. Seal the border. Cut spending. Reform the Fed. Clean house at the FBI and CIA.Bring manufacturing back to the US.

mark94. You sound like a Republican cheerleader. Go Team Go ! I'm nervous about the mid-terms though. The Dems have done a good job of turning the elections into a forum on abortion and ignoring all other issues.

Years ago, Democrats decided to focus on winning the votes of single, college educated women. As a result, they gave up on the working class and parents. Their calculus assumed that black and Hispanic voters would never vote Republican. In 3 weeks, we’ll see whether that was the right decision.

I wish he’d refrain from commenting about our economy, our government don’t need any lessons or words of wisdom from him. They are perfectly capable of trashing it without him sticking his beak in.

"The Dems have done a good job of turning the elections into a forum on abortion"

Warrior, I respectfully disagree. Abortion is in the third quartile of issues. It's big for a small group of people.

Truth is there are fewer swing districts than ever.

If the economy is bidens fault coz he's president. Covid must have been trumps doing since he was president. That's your logic or lack of.

There are really no good alternatives at this point. If we raise interest rates and cut government spending, it will lead us into a severe recession. If we don't do that, we will have increasingly high inflation. Both parties brought us to this point. Trump wasn't quite as bad as Biden but he did increase the national debt by six trillion dollars in four years, made no reductions in government spending and supported the low interest rates to keep the stock market bubble going. The real fault lies with the average American voter. Things will have to get really bad and we will have to hit bottom before we come to our senses. Coming to our senses will involve having the government spend what we can afford, which will be much less than what we are spending now.

All this Jan 6, abortion, "voter suppression" shit is legerdemain meant to distract us from the price tag on daily life.

Yeah, interest rates had been rock bottom for 12 years, of which in only 3 (the Great Recession and the start of COVID) were they justified. But inflation didn't rocket until Biden.

Biden saw it and kept spending.
Biden clamped down on American energy, after years of his party bragging that they'd put fossil fuel producers out of business. (miss me with the Putin shit, gas prices were rocketing before that)
Biden threw more money into the economy by "forgiving" student loan debt (really, transferring it to the American taxpayer) and his Orwellian-named "inflation reduction act." And that was a scaled down version of their original ambitions.

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/07/19/…

I know presidents sometimes take undeserved blame for what happens during their presidency, but there's clear cause and effect between Biden's actions and the result.

Democrats deserve to suffer at the polls for it.

You really want to put the blame for inflation on someone, go after the entire United States government, both parties and the millions of totally unproductive government employees getting paid exorbitant wages, and barely doing their jobs.
Congress works basically a 3.5 day week, yet gets paid like oligarchs with benefits paid for by taxpayers whether there's money left in the kitty or not, if there's no money left they just print some more, totally fucking corrupt, allowed to profit from the stock market they're supposed to be regulating, I mean fuck all folks there's enough blame to go around, but y'all think any things going to improve just because the thieves are from your own political party, makes me laugh at how blindly partisan many of you are.

Modern Monetary Theory is the reason we are in this mess. It’s the theory that increasing government spending, on anything no matter how wasteful, will boost the economy. We now have a 20 year record proving this was wrong.

Similarly, cutting government spending will not cause a recession. We need to cut spending to get inflation under control, which will allow a recovery.

The problem with these discussions on tuscl is that many of you wallow in dick riding the rich and viewing situations in their interest.

The one good thing now is people are finally growing more class conscious and are aware of who the real enemy is.

The downside of the US is the area between the coasts where people vote against their self interest because of centuries of backwardness brainwashing and bigotry.

^ You brand everyone that disagrees with you as a bigot, but you son are as bigoted as any here, look there are genuine bigots and some here actually are, but the quality of the folks you choose to defend is ridiculous, BLM is just a scam and it's as obvious as Al Sharpton's bouffant coiffure, there is a group of race hustlers that make just as much money from this as any politicians, and you never distinguish between them, that makes you ignorant and petty. Everyone that holds different views from your own isn't racist, nor bigoted, you need to realize that if you enter a mans home you are a guest, comments that you make will get you 86ed without a single second thought, freedom of speech doesn't exempt you from a punch in the head, if the speech is offensive, that's the problem with the internet, it doesn't enhance free speech it just shields idiots like you, from the consequences of what you say.

^ Inflation most hurts the poor and those on fixed incomes, who have to spend most or all of their money every month, and don't have assets like real estate.

They should want inflation under control more than anyone.

If you ever wonder, "Why do they (DC "swamprats") do the things they do?" then here is a likely portion of the answer: They seek to cause more citizens to be dependent on the federal government.

@Mark 100% on that first post

25 at this point anyone voting Republican is a bigot.

I see Republicans name calling, and talking slogans and "feel-good" themes again (in addition to endlessly blaming Biden and Dems for everything).

We have a strong jobs market and inflation will be coming under more control regardless of who is in government. Immigration concerns seem overblown into another political stunt by Republicans, as usual when they are not in power. Nobody is mandating anyone to buy electric cars right now. Voters motivated by issues like addressing economic inequality, clean energy and abortion will be likely to vote Dem, we'll see if that can overcome the usual wave of negative emotion that Repubs effectively drum up every election cycle.

>Control crime. Seal the border. Cut spending. Reform the Fed. Clean house at the FBI and CIA.Bring manufacturing back to the US.

Lots of feel-good stuff there. But no need for cleaning house at FBI/CIA, they are doing legitimate work investigating criminal activity. How will Repubs seal the border and cut spending ? How to keep growing US manufacturing when there aren't enough workers for the jobs open today?

"We have a strong jobs market and inflation will be coming under more control regardless of who is in government."
Not until interest rates hit 5-6% and we stop printing money. Of course, that _will_ happen as debt service costs crimp government spending. Recent rate hikes have not slowed down the breakaway pace of inflation.

"Nobody is mandating anyone to buy electric cars right now."
Good spin, but not good enough.
They're only "incentivizing" by the decades of trash talk about shutting down the American fossil fuel industry which leads to chronic underinvestment, current anti-energy actions, and temporarily masking their intentions by releasing oil from the SPR (political use of the SPR should be a hanging offense right there), not to mention the absurd subsidies for a coastal luxury status symbol.
It's as if they think oil drilled outside America doesn't contribute to climate change, so they're begging for dirty Venezuelan oil. A shame, I'm sure America has greater environmental and labor standards.

"Voters motivated by issues like addressing economic inequality, clean energy and abortion will be likely to vote Dem"
Which are way down the list.
"Inequality" is nothing more than the vice of envy made to sound respectable. Rich white people and progressive activists care about "equality." Actual poor and middle class worry about food on their table, independent of social engineering.
Abortion? LOL go figure, more women care about feeding their kid than killing their kid.
Climate change? Way the fuck down the list, another rich white people luxury item.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institu…

Right now, the people "most likely to vote Dem" are the ones masturbating to the thought of a Trump indictment. If the Dems had a winning economic message, they could lead with that. But Biden gave up on it a few months ago; now it's all blame game all the time. That's a big reason more races are breaking Republican--because that shit isn't working.

As I type this, the average of Congressional polls is R+1.6. Over the last 20 years, polls have underestimated Republican performance by an average of 2.4 points. That puts a realistic estimate of R+4.0. The GOP is almost a shoo-in to take the House, and even with some freak show nominations (like Walker in GA), I put the Senate at better than 50/50.

If that's not enough, this year's Senate map is _very_ Democrat-friendly, with the Class of 2016 (a GOP year) defending their seats. In the next Presidential, the Dems are going to have to defend 2018, including several Dem seats in decidedly Trump states.

Long story short, 2020-22 will be the Dems' high water mark for quite some time.
What they _will_ blame: Trump, "messaging," "biased media" (lol it's biased in their favor), people "voting against their interests."
What they _should_ blame: Themselves.
No less than Barack Obama called Democrats "buzzkills" and complains that "we're going around scolding folks if they don't use exactly the right phrase."
https://nypost.com/2022/10/15/barack-oba…
Before you complain that the NYPost is a conservative source, remember this is a liberal president on a leftist podcast. Go verify if you'd like.

^ You aren’t right the Democrats have a winning economic and social argument problem is they let the wokies and extreme lefties get the message muddled by promoting their own agenda which doesn’t benefit working people, if they’d shut down the progressive stupidity they actually have legitimate points to make, but those fools give the Bernie Sanders and other leftists too much power as a result the party base gets shut down and the weirdos that don’t want women to get abortions or think they can villiianize LBTQ folks get emboldened by the fact they’re not the only weirdos in the room.

^ What is that winning economic and social argument?

If leftist economics carried the day, we'd be halfway through the second term of the Sanders administration--or his chosen successor. Sanders is one of the few that places class above ripping us apart by identity groups.

Progressive stupidity _is_ the Democratic agenda, man. I'm right in the middle on abortion (if I were dictator, I'd set the bar at 15 weeks). The "any time, on demand, without apology" frightens as many people as the pro-life extreme does.

The Democrats are run by their extreme-left flank (according to pollsters, ~8% of the population are committed progressives), only they have forsaken the traditional class argument (which I think is nonsense but at least means well) for race, gender, and the most insane sexuality you can imagine. Pete Buttigieg, a married gay Christian father, is too stolid for the current LGBTQ+ regime which embraces Biden's undersecretary for energy that wears S&M gear in public and leads his boyfriend on a leash like a puppy.

The American people still want fairer growth over redistribution, all-of-the-above energy policies, pride in this great country, and abortion available but not elective up to the moment of birth.

Progressives are dragging Democrats into the 21st century. It's a conservative party and the Republicans are the alt right.

^ I’m not going to spend an hour typing a position paper, but you’ve misrepresented the actual position of the majority of democrats and just repeating Republican talking points and I’ genuinely don’t care
Abortion should be decided by what women want, not bullshit about when it’s ok or isn’t you say you believe in science let the science be your guide separation of church and state was supposed to be a bedrock conservatives principle drop the theological argument
At far as the rest of this is concerned how much money dig your Republicans hand out with the ppp and how much do you think was stolen
Im watching the game with some friends I’m not gonna to reply any more so the floor is all yours.

"you’ve misrepresented the actual position of the majority of democrats"
I represented their public face. Funny if you think the Dems are the party of the working man. What you think to be the "majority of democrats" is not what drives them or their donors nowadays.

"Abortion should be decided by what women want, not bullshit about when it’s ok or isn’t you say you believe in science let the science be your guide separation of church and state was supposed to be a bedrock conservatives principle drop the theological argument"
I can't tell what this unpunctuated word salad means, but the "my body my choice" argument is pretty shallow given the fetus' unique genetic code and argument that in one location it's a clump of tissues and in another it's a life deserving of protection. Kid's pretty dependent after birth, too.
15 weeks is when the fetus develops a central nervous system, the function of which determines whether a born individual is considered "dead" or "alive." That's where my figure comes from. By the way, I never said "God" or "Jesus" or "Allah" or "Krishna," so drop the theological straw man bullshit.

"how much money dig your Republicans hand out with the ppp and how much do you think was stolen"
I can't tell what this gibberish means. Translator?

"Im watching the game with some friends I’m not gonna to reply any more so the floor is all yours."
Good. I can barely understand what you're saying. Punctuation is the difference between "let's eat, kids!" and "let's eat kids!" Ironic for a conversation about abortion.

The problem with the NY Post is not that it is conservative, it's that it is complete tabloid trash, the worst of the worst, peddling to base instincts, gossip and slander. I used to read it regularly decades ago, until I slowly but surely got disgusted with it and couldn't touch it anymore.

^ Except the NYP was quoting a Pod Save America podcast, not something you have to take on faith.

Daily Beast said it too
https://www.thedailybeast.com/former-pre…

Notice the difference in the title

NYP... Barack Obama takes shot at cancel culture, rips ‘buzzkill’ Democrats in interview
DB.... Obama Admits Democrats Can Sometimes Be a ‘Buzzkill’

LOL ! Admit it, the NY Post is a piece of garbage.

People don't pay much attention to Federal Reserve policy since the subject is somewhat esoteric but over the last 35 years Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell have probably done as much harm as any politician.

The main goal of the Fed is to do the bidding of Wall Street. It works to push up stock prices. This benefits the wealthiest 10% of the population that owns 90% of stocks but not the average person. During economic crashes it is Wall Street, not Main Street, that gets bailed out.

In addition to this, inflation from Fed policies raises prices so the average person has a tougher time making ends meet. Inflation pushes U.S. wages up, thereby making American workers less competitive with lower cost foreign workers. Over the last 35 years this has led to our industrial base being moved overseas. The American working class, having lost good paying jobs, has turned to despair, drugs and alcohol. They sense something has gone wrong but can't identify the culprit because the same rich who benefit from Fed policies also control much of the media and direct attention away from the Federal Reserve.

By less competitive you mean American businesses can't pay more exploitive wages

The only war worth fighting is the class war

wld4tatas asked how can [reps] seal the border and cut spending...

Answers:
1. Seal the border by completing the wall, and by empowering Border Patrol to expel all who enter via unlawful means. Also, allow states that border other countries to participate in enforcing (protecting) those borders.
2. Cut spending by CUTTING federal government activity that is not part of the enumerated powers delineated in the United States Constitution.

When people walk to the border from as far as Venezuela, buying or making a ladder is not going to be a big deal for them. Obama gave the Border Patrol the resources they needed to greatly reduce unauthorized entrances to the US. A wall would slow the crossers down some, but you'd still need BP agents to apprehend them. So likely more cost effective to spend the $ on well-equipped agents.

Enough Icey, we already know you're an armchair, sissy, wannabe lefty. Such a silly little girl....The class war Roflmao. Big shot lol. Toughest 8 year old girl in vegas is you.......

Abortion is only a hot button issue for women who were always going to vote Dem. In a recent NY Times/Sienna College poll, half of women surveyed intend to vote Republican this time around. They have never had that kind of result before. Indeed women voted Dem over Republican by an 18 point margin in 2018. This makes it clear that abortion is not the female vote watershed that the Dems hoped it would be.

Right now it's all about inflation. Over the past few months electric bills have skyrocketed in line with natural gas prices, the cost of which are directly passed on to utility customers. Every week people go to the supermarket prices on basic goods have gone up yet more. Everyone who has had their home or auto insurance renew in the past 6 months has been whacked with a rate increase. There is no safe port in the storm.

We won't fix this mess until we do something serious to reduce demand and motivate people to get back in the workforce. Instead we <strong>still</strong> have state governments handing out goodie checks while the Feds continue to pay people not to work via waived work requirements for EBT and subsidized healthcare for people who voluntarily reduce their incomes. It's fucking mind boggling.

Since I don't see fiscal policy reversing anytime soon, our only hope is for the Fed to make up for this stupidity with more serious rate hikes and bond sales, but they don't seem to be up to the challenge either. But at least it will be a start to take the checkbook away from the children who got us into this mess by assuming control of the House. We may have to wait for the next Presidential election for more serious medicine.

Big Dick Dark Brandon does need to hurry up and assassinate Putin so we can fix the global economy and inflation. I'm tired of Putinflation.

^ You've played too many video games if you think we have the power to assassinate any foreign leader and disappear without a trace.

It's Bidenflation. Started long before Putin.

^Right. It's all Russia's fault. They're the reason we hosed trillions into an already heating economy through massive spending bills and Fed printing presses. Then, just to make sure that they didn't forget anything which might finish us off from an inflation standpoint, they orchestrated bills U.S. government policies which continue to pay people not to work to this very day, thereby further fueling a wage price spiral. Damn those Russkies! 😂

Inflation is a global phenomenon. Repubs WANT to stick it all on Biden for political reasons, but that doesn't make it true.

It is by and large an outcome of COVID. Governments stepped in to stimulate economies to avoid a great depression, and there were major disruptions in labor markets and supply chains.

Add it all together: more demand chasing less supply

^ Someone seems to want to absolve Biden for political reasons
It's transitory! It's Putin! It's Colonel Mustard with the lead pipe in the conservatory!
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/07/19/…

Funny, "COVID" seemed to coincide, down to the month, with the Biden presidency.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/2734…

Just imagine if we passed Biden's full Build Back Better, or God forbid, the Green New Deal, with all the unfunded liabilities it generated in the name of "saving the planet" or "equity."

Ever notice that not one fucking Democrat is ever responsible for anything? Always someone else's fault. A party with a fucked-up loser constituency. We control all of the government; we are the leader of the free world; nothing is our fault,,,,ever. Go fuck yourselves.

Not saying the US government has not been a factor, not at all. But sticking it 100% on Joe Biden and Democratic policies is nonsense.

Unfortunately, all too often Repubs keep resorting to deception and insults. Maybe following the example of their leader, Donald Trump?

@wld, "100% on Joe Biden's policies" is an evasion. I know we kept the easy money spigot far longer than we needed to, but the height of the pandemic (2020) was when we needed it. We didn't have inflation during this time.

Then all of Biden's extra stimuli, the student loan forgiveness (aka giveaway to a Dem client group), and the bullshit-named "Inflation Reduction Act" (which in reality is a skinnied-down version of BBB) happen, all pump money into the economy, and we're expected to believe that it didn't play a major part? Let's add in Biden's executive moves. Discouraging production of American energy. Not rescinding the Jones Act which would alleviate the shipping crisis. (which is a giveaway to union supporters). There's a cause-and-effect that anyone who isn't a Dem spin doctor can acknowledge.

It says something that the Dems are getting hammered on this issue, instead going to the legerdemain of abortion and the Jan 6 riots.

I'm no Trump fan, but you know the big difference between Trump and Biden in this election? One is the President of the United States. One just yaks all over the airwaves. Without Trump's bombastic personality to distract us, we can make a clearheaded choice between two policy visions, one of which is highly inflationary.

I hope we choose correctly.

Kind of funny that while 9/11 was planned under Clinton and was originally planned for April and not September that the Democrats accepted no blame and blamed Bush 100% because it happened on his watch. Now inflation goes nuts under Biden's watch; Russia grabs more of another country; gas prices go berserk oil production cut, and the stock market crashes, all 100% on Biden's watch and the Democrats in 100% control and it's not 100% the fault of the Democrats. Nobody likes liars and hypocrites, except other liars and hypocrites.

brandon announced today he's releasing 15 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve and claims it's not a political stunt.
the major networks reported on the release but what they're not telling us is that it's less than a day's worth of oil, the usa uses 19-20 million barrels a day.

@TheeOSU: The market was unimpressed. The price of oil went up today.

yeah rick but i saw he still got props from nbc and abc, they're covering for him like they always do and many people swallow the bs, thinking that he's doing something because they believe everything the news tells them.

btw, gas prices have come down a little since the recent all time highs a while back and i saw reports the last week or so that prices will continue to come down a bit.
if those reports are correct brandon can claim that his 15mil barrel release contributed to the falling prices.
a purely opportunistic political move imo.

>Kind of funny that while 9/11 was planned under Clinton and was originally planned for April and not September that the Democrats accepted no blame and blamed Bush 100% because it happened on his watch.

Where did you read that? I certainly never blamed Bush for 9/11. That's even more ridiculous than blaming Biden for today's inflation.

>@wld, "100% on Joe Biden's policies" is an evasion.

You were the one who said "It's Bidenflation."

IMHO right now we are experiencing two different economies: One for white collar workers and one for the working class. White collar workers are much more easily absorbing the inflation while blue collar workers are feeling it a lot more.

White collar workers may be holding off a bit on buying big ticket goods and to some degree strip clubs, but they are still treating themselves to restaurants and other entertainment and are still buying premium food and other smaller ticket stuff. White collar workers also tend to have newer cars and can hold off longer on replacement purchases. White collar workers salaries are also keeping up better with inflation. Blue collar workers OTOH are falling quickly behind and are already being forced to make hard choices.

The Fed is doing a great job of protecting us white collar workers by doing just enough to keep the markets from going to shit, but not so much that markets completely crap out. At some point though if they actually want to help the blue collar folks for the long term, they're going to have to unleash some temporary pain on everyone.

I dunno. Big Tech is going through some pretty big layoffs.

The real difference is that most workers have no cushion built into their budget. Those are the people bearing the first wave of problems, whether they are blue or white collar.

The wealthy, or simply those who are debt free, are getting by just fine so far.

"I dunno. Big Tech is going through some pretty big layoffs."
From what I hear out of Facebook, it sounds like some rough times are ahead. And management's acting really shitty towards its people, classic "bad boss" stuff.

"You were the one who said "It's Bidenflation.""
How much has to be due to Biden in order to say that? When you're taking measures that increase it, and avoiding measures that decrease it, you are culpable.

I had no trouble requesting and getting a Georgia absentee ballot by mail. I voted last Monday by dropping it into a drop box at the county elections office. My vote will be counted.

===> "I dunno. Big Tech is going through some pretty big layoffs."

I hear that, but it's just nibbles right now. Until Big Finance (banks, insurance cos, investment management firms, real estate, etc.) follows suit, we're probably not going to see any serious decrease in demand for goods and services from the white collar workforce, which in turn means that we won't see a serious adjustment to inflationary pressures - especially from our labor markets.

The problem for the Fed IMHO is that they're in a Catch 22. With securities markets still trading at levels higher than pre-pandemic highs, real estate valuations still far higher than 2 1/2 years ago and insurance cos largely still able to pass on large rate increases to consumers, Big Finance has little reason to lay people off in large numbers. But raising rates to levels high enough to burst asset bubbles and tame inflation bring with them other serious consequences to the U.S. budget, pensions, insurance companies and business with overseas partners.

When Volker jammed up interest rates in the early 80s, things were much less complicated than they are today. For starters, we weren't carrying these insane U.S. budgetary debt loads. Also, the economy was not nearly as global as it is today, where hikes in the U.S. interest rates create global currency rate nightmares that impact both our trading partners and U.S. corporations with significant multi-national operations.

Even worse though, bursting the stock market and real estate bubbles could have disastrous consequences for U.S. pension plans and insurance companies, which are more exposed today to both markets than ever before. This of course is also the Fed's fault for keeping interest rates buried at 0 for a solid fucking decade, thereby forcing pensions and insurers to chase returns in riskier asset classes. But here we are.

So now the Fed feels compelled to do things in baby steps, no doubt hoping that insurers and pension plans will re-adjust their exposures over time and that foreign governments will follow suit with their own rate hikes so that the currency valuation fallout with overseas counter-parties is mitigated. But while they do all of this, inflation continues to further entrench.

I suspect they know that more serious medicine will need to be administered eventually, but are hoping that the parties I discussed are more prepared when it happens. I also suspect that they'd like to be past Biden's re-election run when that happens.

Anyway just my two cents fwiw.

A number of other central banks have been following the same inflationary policies as the U.S. and are having problems now as they attempt to grapple with the results. Liz Truss in Great Britain just resigned after their attempt to stop inflation led to a pension crisis and proposed unfunded tax cuts led to a drop in the pound.

A barrel of oil right now is 8% lower than it was the day before Putin invaded the Ukraine but up 70% since Biden took office. The big increase in the price of oil was before Russia invaded the Ukraine so it's not Putin's fault. It's the out-of-control spending and money printing by the government along with keeping interest rates at zero for a decade that is the cause.