tuscl

How many tusl members have gotten COVID?

gotoguy
Florida
Friday, December 4, 2020 5:38 PM
With nearly 2 USA citizens dead every second, 24/7, for the past few days (and increasing), and near 100 per second getting the disease I’ve been avoiding clubs? The weeks long illness and potential for many lifelong conditions is worrisome to someone my age. I don’t have many dancer phone numbers that work anymore. Dancers and phones being unreliable and I'm sure some can't pay for them anymore. So, I am very tempted to go to clubs, even if it is just to score some numbers. How many wimps like me aren’t going to clubs for now, even if they are open? I’m old enough to remember the early days of HIV and how drastically that effected things. I’m not much worried about HIV anymore, even though there is no HIV vaccine. Soon there is likely to be effective and safe COVID vaccine. How many of you are waiting 6 more months?

71 comments

  • PhredJohnson
    •
    4 years ago
    I am much more afraid of not living than I am of dying.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    Work travel ceased back in March, so I have had no opportunity to go to clubs. Just as well, I know myself well enough that presented with the choice between sitting in my hotel room watching TV or clubbing, I would probably take the risk. Several members have reported they got over Covid 19 earlier this year. I don't remember which ones. On a hopefully unrelated note, Isn't it odd that Papi_chulo hasn't posted in a couple of weeks. Hope he is well.
  • joker44
    •
    4 years ago
    I'm in a high risk group. So far no one [150+ folks] in the apt complex where I live has gotten Covid but all common areas have been 'locked down' again since just before Vets Day.
  • JamesSD
    •
    4 years ago
    I got tested once after a fever and feeling sick for a couple days. Got tested and it was negative so probably just a regular cold
  • Sgtsnowman
    •
    4 years ago
    I have made it a point to ignore Punxatawney Faucci at every point that I can since May (when it became apparent to me that the numbers don't justify the fear).
  • latinalover69
    •
    4 years ago
    What a scam. Been to strip cubs at least 10 tines in t he last 90 days. If yer scurred stay home. Otherwise...
  • Eve
    •
    4 years ago
    I don't know officially if I ever had it, but I wouldn't doubt that I did (and was just asymptomatic or dealt with something light like a scratchy throat at the most). I never really stopped going out since the initial shut down in March.
  • Warrior15
    •
    4 years ago
    I had it in July. Has a slight cough for about 4 days. But I did isolate for two weeks. Whatever the number is that tested positive, the CDC says to multiply that number by eight to get the actual number. There are that many people that were asymptomatic and never got a test. Right now, we are close to 30% of the entire population has already had it. So everyone on this board knows someone that has had it.
  • Warrior15
    •
    4 years ago
    ^ By the way, I didn't get it in a club. I got it from a sugar baby that I was seeing. She went out drinking at a bar with her sister and friend 3 days before spending a weekend with me. I probably would not have gotten tested if sugar baby hadn't gotten sick and tested positive, then told me.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    I've never been tested, but I monitor for symptoms daily and haven't had any. I do know over a dozen people who have had it. One was from a high-risk group (over 65, sedentary, poorly managed diabetes) who was hospitalized and nearly died. All the others recovered without incident, but one. He was local family practice doctor whondid notp
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    observe PPE or social distancing and minimized the dangers of the disease. He died not dorectly.from COVID, but from a cardiovascular condition brought on by the inflammatory side effects of the disease. I do not know more detail than that. If I lived in an area with better clubs, like Tampa, Miami, or J-ville, I would still be going out. I've checked out the clubs in southwest Florida, and there is no point in going to the effort and risk.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    I had it in June and I am pretty sure that I got it from a club. I had very mild symptoms that went away after about a week, but isolated for 14 days. I also know a lot of other people who have had it now, including dancers and bar staff.
  • ATACdawg
    •
    4 years ago
    "What a scam." COVID has just overtaken heart disease as the #1 killer in the U.S. For most rational people, that statistic represents a hell of a lot more than a scam. For those of you who have contracted the coronavirus and were either asymptomatic or survived with minor symptoms, congrats. You have just hit the lottery through the grace of God. For me, who am about to hit the 70-79 bracket where my odds of dying rise to 20 percent if I catch it, this disease is a fearsome thing. I thank God every morning for the overworked doctors, nurses and orderlies who put their lives at risk every day as they deal with ERs, ICUs and other hospital facilities that are over capacity. I thank God for the ambulance personnel, firefighters and police who keep doing their jobs despite the heightened risk. I thank God for the poorly paid store clerk's who, despite the plexiglass screens and masks are at risk.
  • ATACdawg
    •
    4 years ago
    I thank God for every person who cares enough about their health and the health of everyone they pass to wear a mask. I thank God for the scientific progress that has brought FOUR effective vaccines (not counting those from China and Russia) in only six months! If you don't get your shots as soon as they are available to you, you are idiots. I speak for the generation who was alive when polio crippled two people in my elementary school and iron lungs were still a thing. I speak for my grandfather who lost his first wife the the flu pandemic of 1918. If you are unwilling to take the most basic precautions like social distancing, wearing a mask, teleworking, getting a test when you've been exposed, self isolating when it's needed when it's allowed and getting vaccinated as soon as you are able, then you are demonstrably a selfish SOB who doesn't care who he might infect and possibly kill.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    I swear I think this site is chalk full of scared old drama queens who have the luxury of indulging their never-ending panic because they don't need to get their hands dirty for a living. Look guys, if I were your age I might be nervous too. But it's the height of foolishness to believe that young people are going to quarantine and social distance forever. Did you when you were young? How many of you would have been able to feed yourselves before you made it to a point where you could "telework?" Your fear is so insidious that you are not able to grasp the realities facing low income workers, school children and other young people, most of whom are at virtually no risk of serious consequences. So if you are high risk then by all means protect yourselves. If you are too stupid to grasp how to do that by now then I'm not sure what to tell you. But don't expect young people to stop working and living for a freakin' year or longer just because of a disease that isn't dangerous to them. Maybe they would if this were the Spanish flu or polio or iron lung, but for most people COVID is a powder puff compared to those horrible diseases.
  • Warrior15
    •
    4 years ago
    Even though I had very little fear of Covid before I got it, and now have NO fear of it. I do see that it has harmed a lot of people. I can't get it again and thus can't pass it on to anyone now. But I will wear my mask and keep my distance to make others feel better. I also would encourage everyone to get the vaccine as soon as it is available to you. We are not going back to normal until the case numbers are very small. The vaccine will allow us to get to herd immunity by April/May if everyone takes the stupid shot. Heck even though I'm immune, I'm probably going to take it in the spring after others have had their chance.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    ^ And soon we will segue into the next round of what will trigger endless hyperventilating news articles and social media posts - the vaccine debate. I hate to be the one to break the news, but the vaccine is not going to create herd immunity and wipe out COVID because there is simply too much resistance to taking it in the low risk groups. I may take it and Mrs. Dugan certainly will, but why should I put a rushed to market vaccine into my children to protect them from something that isn't dangerous to them? Not gonna' happen. Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail and we will start to view this as a way to protect the most vulnerable rather than a magic pill to rid the world of COVID. At least once the media his gone through ample histrionics about how adoption rates are not high enough - government leaders need to mandate vaccination - etc., etc.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Actually, there are ZERO effective vaccines. None have been approved yet. The two vaccines which are nearing completion are using untested mRNA technology, are predicted to work only 95% if the time, and wear off in 3 months or less. The next two in line are even less effective and seem to have more side effects. I will not be taking ANY new vaccines for at least a year. Other folks can be the guinea pigs. The risk to me from COVID are less than the risks from the vaccines.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    " Maybe they would if this were the Spanish flu or polio or iron lung, but for most people COVID is a powder puff compared to those horrible diseases." Thanks for my first laugh of the morning, Rick. The dreaded iron lung disease. That's why I always look to the internet message boards for advise on epidemiology.
  • Warrior15
    •
    4 years ago
    Holy crap, this board is full of misinformation . 95% effectiveness is actually extremely high for vaccines. We don't need everyone to take it to get to herd. Only about half of the population needs to take it. Another at least 20% will have already had the virus and are immune anyway. And who says it only lasts 3 months? They have done tests on the people that got Covid back in March. Those people are still immune. Get the stupid shot. It has shown to have virtually no side effects in the 60,000 people that have already had it.
  • sclvr5005
    •
    4 years ago
    "...... I can't get it again and thus can't pass it on to anyone now." There have been reported cases of people getting it more than once, and the second time around was worse than the first. No one knows how long anyone stays immune after contracting this virus...could be a month or could be a year. They just don't know. I don't know where people get the idea that once they got it they are immune forever. It simply isn't true.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    Reinfection is rare and the vast majority of reinfections are milder. There have been a few incidences were the second infection was far more severe. To my knowledge there are multiple variants circulating. (Chinese, European, Mink, etc.) and thousands of mutations within these. It is naive to proclaim yourself immune, but I truly hope you are.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    "COVID has just overtaken heart disease as the #1 killer in the U.S. For most rational people, that statistic represents a hell of a lot more than a scam." I think the question of policy -- which is a political question -- is a different question than "how is it impacting us". There's lies and statistics, but the way things are looking: when covid first came out, people were howling that it wouldn't kill as many people as even a typical flu year (typical flu year is 40k deaths, in a really bad year 60k). Current covid19 deaths are at 285,000 and it's not been a full year yet. Yesterday 2700 died, which means if that number stays the same, covid will kill an entire flu season's worth of people every 15 days. However, we do NOT expect that number to stay the same, it's going to go up significantly as the people who caught it over Thanksgiving start dying (and take another bump if there are areas where the health system gets overwhelmed, which is again looking possible in some cities). All of that to say -- let's call March 1 a year, we may be in 400,000+ deaths -- which, yes, puts it right in the ballpark of the lower estimates for swine flu total deaths over a longer period (500k-700k). With luck, that will drop drastically as the vaccine rolls out. Smart policy in response to this is a completely different question. But statistically, this is swine-flu class in total deaths, though not in per capita. Almost half a million dead is a big number no matter how you slice it, I would lean towards saying "probably not a scam"
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    @warrior15: the manufacturer, Moderna, said their vaccine only lasts for up to 3 mos. Thats the same as naturally created antibodies from an actual infection.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Furthermore, the death statistics are factually false. If you die from cancer, a heart attack, fentanyl overdose, or get hit by a bus, and they find COVID-19 or antibodies in your blood, then the cause of death will include SARS-CoV-2. I'm not saying that we shouldn't wear masks, social distance, and make smart decisions. I am saying that there is too much misinformation, fake news, and outright bullshit regarding the dangers of this virus.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Example of misinformation: "To my knowledge there are multiple variants circulating. (Chinese, European, Mink, etc.) and thousands of mutations within these". At last count, there were only 16 strains or so identified. There are NOT thousands of mutations within the individual strains. This virus mutates very slowly, like the flu.
  • 8TM
    •
    4 years ago
    I had it a few months ago, probably got it in a club. It was a textbook mild case. I had a fever and loss of smell and taste but no breathing problems at all. I’m under 40 and live alone so I wasn’t worried much.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    ===> "Current covid19 deaths are at 285,000 and it's not been a full year yet." Putting aside gam's accurate portrayal of the horrible over-reporting of death counts, even using the inflated numbers the simple reality is that: - 92% of COVID deaths are occurring in ages 55 and over; - 80% of deaths are with people over 65; and - 60% of COVID deaths are in ages 75 and up. And to add, many of these people have several other co-morbidities. So "smart policy" that balancing the needs of the young with the needs of the old would seem to call for a split approach, allowing the young to continue on with necessary economic and educational activities while enhancing protections for the vulnerable. Yet some places can't seem to process this approach and instead impose devastating restrictions that hurt everyone. And let's also call it like it is. Nobody should be confused about how to protect himself. If you get COVID, it's because you made a choice to be in close contact with others. That's on you. This notion that we are supposed to be people's lives and incomes on pause for a solid fucking year for a virus that is simply not deadly to most kids and working age adults is ridiculous.
  • lurkingdog
    •
    4 years ago
    Warrior15 - I like your optimism but the science is not at the stage where you can declare that you won't get it again. There are reports of people who have been infected more than once. And keep in mind that the 95% effectiveness data are all coming from trials that have AT MOST a 4 month experience, hence the believe of requiring boosters.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    Tracking deaths is always challenging, for every disease. Many/most who dies from the flu actually dies from bacterial pneumonia. Many had cancers or heart disease that would have killed them anyway -- but these are comorbidities that make the flu far more deadly, and if the flu likely reduced their life expectancy, it's marked as a flu death. Bacterial pneumonia deaths with flu present are ALWAYS flu deaths. That's how flu death statistics work, that's how covid19 works. Beyond conspiracy sites, the actual medical community isn't sure whether covid19 deaths are under- or over-reported yet. In a study published on expected deaths in the US vs actual deaths, from March through August, it was found that there were 225k more deaths than expected -- these studies are not easy but that lines up pretty well with covid19 deaths. No, it is not a "fact" that covid19 is being over-reported; as with every disease, there are certainly mistakes, but the actual professionals who look at this don't believe it is, it's non-professionals who have a political motivation for believing it and many of whom seem to have mistakenly believed that comoribidites listed on covid19 death certificates mean it's not really a covid19 death, who believe it. So many cities do not have their ICUs filling up due to people getting hit by buses. Like I said, policy is a different topic entirely, it's a political one.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    ===> "In a study published on expected deaths in the US vs actual deaths, from March through August, it was found that there were 225k more deaths than expected -- these studies are not easy but that lines up pretty well with covid19 deaths." The fallacy in your logic is the assumption that all other death causes remain constant, which is the only way that the results of this study could be equated solely to COVID deaths. Deaths from other untreated medical conditions and ODs have most certainly risen and we don't have a clear view on the suicide stats yet, but those will likely have spiked to when we look back several months from now. As far as the rest, I'm certainly not claiming that the folks who died didn't have COVID. But I 'm hearing entirely different versions as many of these people were already sick with one foot in the grave before COVID. What doesn't help is the 20% higher Medicare reimbursement rate for COVID vs. other illnesses, which incentivizes hospitals to play up the COVID angle (and treat the heck out of it) with patients that may not have been hospitalized primarily for COVID.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    @Gammanu95 I try not to spread misinformation. Here is one citation that supports thousands of genetic mutations as I stated. Please educate me if you can cite research that contradicts this. Variant analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes Bull World Health Organ. 2020 Jul 1; 98(7): 495–504. Published online 2020 Jun 2. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.253591 Findings We identified 5775 distinct genome variants, including 2969 missense mutations, 1965 synonymous mutations, 484 mutations in the non-coding regions, 142 non-coding deletions, 100 in-frame deletions, 66 non-coding insertions, 36 stop-gained variants, 11 frameshift deletions and two in-frame insertions.
  • gotoguy
    •
    4 years ago
    rickdugan believes he is safe and I hope he is correct for RD and for the people around him. I personally believe as many of you do that we should not put first responders, hospital patients, and hospital workers at risk for death. They are among the groups that have had the most deaths and they often die because people are not taking precautions. As Subraman says, the ICUs are not normally filled -- COVID is real -- COVID kills plenty of people who are otherwise young and healthy! Also many, of all ages, do not get completely better, and might have lifelong problems. Finally, the data suggests that there are actually very few people who have no significant symptoms. So no where near 30% nationally have been infected. Side effects include long term if not permanent psychiatric diseases. The cases are rising and almost 2 people die every minute, nearly two of three of those are men, and it could be you next time if you get a big initial infection with the next mutation. RD stay safe we need your posts.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    ===> "Finally, the data suggests that there are actually very few people who have no significant symptoms. So no where near 30% nationally have been infected." The data suggests nothing of the sort. Studies conducted by the CDC and others actually suggest that for every person who has tested positive, 4-5 people had it and never got tested. Further follow-up on those results suggested that the overwhelming majority of cases were so mild that they were either asymptomatic or were easily confused with other minor common illnesses. ICUs are filling up because they run at about 90% capacity at the best of times. Empty ICU space is very expensive to carry, so most hospitals carefully manage their inventories. There was never going to be a situation where a new virus was not going to strain existing capacity, hence the need for spillover temporary ICU units. Heck even a bad flu season strains existing ICUs.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    Rick, I agree it isn't easy to do studies like this. It's published in JAMA, the study is well respected by those who are experts in this. I -- and I imagine you, and everyone commenting -- am not personally an expert or able to spot good studies from bad, so I rely on experts. Still, this is just a bit of corroboration that the deaths being contributed to covid are right where we'd expect. Another piece of corroborating evidence: ICUs space isn't alarming down due to filling up with people who got hit by buses. A line from the study: "Although total US death counts are remarkably consistent from year to year, US deaths increased by 20% during March-July 2020." The study comes to the conclusion that it's as likely covid deaths are being undercounted. And there is a pretty fundamental misunderstanding by some in how disease deaths are classified: if you have cancer, get the flu or covid, and die sooner than would have been expected from cancer, you are considered to have died from the flu or covid; almost no one dies from the flu virus, they all die from a subsequent opportunistic infection, but we still call it a flu death. I am certain you're right that -- just with every disease -- there are mistakes made in death certificates, and a monetary reward for doing so is a confounder. That doesn't negate (or support) your views on policy -- that's a separate, political discussion about tradeoffs. But there is no reason to think the data isn't right on.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Juatin, anything out of the WHO has less credibility than a drunken Alex Jones tripping on brown acid.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Did you type "I try not to spread misinformation " and go on to quote the WHO just for the lolz?
  • Studme53
    •
    4 years ago
    I tested positive after feeling mild symptoms for a couple days. The first day, a Sunday, I thought I was a bit hungover but just continued to feel sick and tired all day Monday. Felt much better Tuesday but still tired. Went for a test Thursday even though I was feeling better, felt 100% Friday, Monday got test result that I was positive. Probably got it playing pickup basketball with my regular group. No one else in bball group - mostly guys in their 30s and 40s, got sick or tested positive. I’m not really all that worried about it. I’m in my late 50s in good health.
  • rossl
    •
    4 years ago
    Tested positive for antibodies in July and only time I had felt ill was Jan. But it was a BAD "flu". No hospital, no doc, and when the SO caught it in Aug, I did not. So, I, like others have said, now have no fear of it. IMHO, under-50's in relatively good health should
  • rossl
    •
    4 years ago
    Go about their lives, and if possible, catch it when they can afford 2weeks of downtime. Herd immunity from infection or a true vaccine is what has gotten us thru every disease, and this is no different. It's not even the first coronavirus in history, just the. Newest.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    I forgot to mention my symptoms when I posted above that I got it in June. Mild fever for a few days and then that went away, followed by 5 days where I lost my sense of smell and taste and during which the only odor I could smell was a weird tangy scent in the back of my nose. No respiratory issues or other more significant symptoms. I think the more we know, including more people who have had it, the less we fear it. This thing has been treated like the black plague by the press because it's killing some already old and sick people. Now we should never want anybody to die, but the longer this goes on the more I'm convinced that we are horribly over-reacting to this virus.
  • Uprightcitizen
    •
    4 years ago
    Where is Gawker?
  • PutaTester
    •
    4 years ago
    Everyone is responsible for their own safety. That goes for everything from driving automobiles to viruses. I don't know what motivates some to recommend that others take risks that they probably should not. Most likely that they are actually scared themselves and cover for it by denying the science. Nor do they care about others. I have elderly family members that I love dearly, but I will not visit, because it would be heartbreaking to be the one to bring tragedy to their door. Likely I would survive an infection, but I must think of others. Debate this all you want, but the bottom line is that nobody knows anything for sure, not even the best scientists and certainly not random people on a forum.
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    @Sub: I have far less faith than you in most of the studies conducted by private outfits. "Experts" can have agendas, use fatally flawed sampling techniques, make horribly inaccurate correlations and play with parameter definitions just like anyone else, which sadly has been all too common during this outbreak. If you had believed many of the "experts" months back there should be hundreds of thousands of deaths in Florida right now rather than less than 19k on over a million reported cases (and likely several millions unreported). As far as ICUs, there is no doubt that the added strain is coming from COVID. My point is that there wasn't much excess capacity available to begin with and there never is, so pointing to that as a sign of the virus' severity is a bit misleading.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    @Gammanu95, Would research from Michigan State count? or is that "fake news" as well. Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 mutations in the United States Rui Wang1, Jiahui Chen1, Kaifu Gao1, Yuta Hozumi1, Changchuan Yin2, and Guo-Wei Wei1,3,4* 1Department of Mathematics,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA. 2Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science,University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA 3Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA. 4Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA. July 28, 2020 Complete genome sequence data can provide us with a wide variety of opportunities to decode the mutation-induced transmission and infection behavior of COVID-19. In this work, we downloaded 28726 complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from GISAID ( [view link]) up to July 14, 2020. Based on the genotyping results, we obtain 28726 SNP profiles, which record all of the single mutations compared to the first complete genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 in the GenBank (access number: NC045512.2). Among them, 7823 SNP profiles are decoded from the genome isolates submitted by the United States, and 49682 single mutations are detected. TUSCL is a fun diversion, but most of the boards I am in are evidence based. If you say my statement was factually incorrect cite at least one source to support your position.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    I'm not going to do your homework for you, Justin. If you are that invested, it is your responsibility to disprove me, not vice versa. Why is it that all of the authors and references in that article hail from China? Are you unaware of the well documented CCP practice of recruting and paying Chinese nationals to enroll in US research institutions to steal technology, research, and sow disinformation? Can you corroborate this article? Has it been peer reviewed? Why does it stand in stark contradiction to other, better established research, which demonstrates that the novel coronavirus is slow to mutate? Quit sucking Xi's cock, already.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    Rick: I think skepticism is good! It's not that I have blind faith, but I do feel strongly it's scientists and medical professionals who are in the best position to study, measure, and judge, and more importantly, determine which studies are credible. Peer-review has gotten science to where it is -- there's definitely problems at times, but they are a far better source than random political sites who have very little understanding of how medicine or science work (e.g., not understanding why a death certificate with both cancer and covid19 would correctly be a covid19 death, exactly the same as with flu). And there's a lot of corroborating evidence. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that in 10 years, we'll find the scientists are right and (some) politicians are non-scientific non-medical groups were wrong: covid19 total deaths will be about on par with the 1918 swine flu and one of the worst epidemics in US history (which isn't a huge prediction, we're almost there if you believe the stats). Shit, hopefully we're both still around and I'll bet you an OTC with either of our CFs :)
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Dammit. I told myself I was going to be kinder during the Christmas season. Okay, I take back the comment about Justin being Xi's cockholster. I stand by the rest.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    COVID-19 does not begin to compare to the 1918 Spanish Flu. Stats show only 1.5M dead. That number is grossly inflated by western governments and greatly depressed by Russia, Iran, China and others. Even so, that indicated a mortality of 2.2% (of reported cases). That number is ALSO manipulated by reporting agencies and does not include those who never get tested. Estimates for the Spanish Flu are 500M infected, 20M-50M dead. 4% - 10% mortality. Now, THAT is a pandemic! This is just a bunch bureaucrats and girly-men wringing their hands and manufacturing a crisis as a pretense for a gross overreach of governmental power.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    Gamma: again, the most correct and accurate number, generated by actual scientists and medical personnel and not conspiracy sites who have no idea of how deaths are tracked or how to correctly ascribe deaths to causes, is 285k dead in the US, and at 2700 deaths per day (expected to go up sharply), we are easily on track to touch the lower estimate for the swine flu (500k) before the vaccines take shape. I am not saying worldwide -- many countries in the world have fared far better, the US has been impacted worse than most countries. For the US, we almost certainly will tally a near-swine-flu total death count.
  • NAAAASTY
    •
    4 years ago
    Determine your own level of risks and precautions for your situation. I have no problems with masks and physical distancing for the most part in public indoor places. Shutting down businesses is a different issue. There is no Science nor grand policy that's correct only lots of bullshit masquerading as such. NAAAASTY
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    @gammanu95 - "it is your responsibility to disprove me, not vice versa." Nope. You called me out. I provided citations for my statement. Now can you provide even one citation for yours. That is how discussions on science work (and usually without name calling). If you can't I will assume you just don't know what you are talking about. BTW Are you even familiar with SNPs?
  • rickdugan
    •
    4 years ago
    ===> "...covid19 total deaths will be about on par with the 1918 swine flu" Dude, COVID would have to kill 2 million Americans to be on par with the Spanish Flu on a per capita basis. Our population has tripled since 1918. The biggest difference is that the Spanish flu was killing children in large numbers, which is not the case with COVID. As far as the rest, your assumption that I'm getting a single spec of my data from political sites is misplaced. The mortality rates, estimated prevalence data, pre- and post-COVID ICU capacity and other stats are coming directly from CDC and state reporting sources. While my skepticism regarding death reporting is indeed a product of less reliable and sometimes anecdotal reporting, the reality is that even if we assume that those numbers are correct, COVID is just not especially dangerous to most people under 55. At some point we need to stop acting like it is from a public policy standpoint. Thankfully I live in a state where those realities are understood.
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    Nasty was 100% spot on. Subra, no credible source has ever put 500K as a lower estimate for Swine Flu deaths. The most conservative estimates bottom out at 20,000,000. The COVID numbers you reported are not xoming from scientists and medical personnel. They are coming from governments and bureaucrats, each with their own fiefdom to expand and agenda to pursue. However, suppose they were coming from scientists and physicians. They, too, are more intersted in puahing their interests and paradigms than they are in cold, hard, data. Read all the articles about nurses and physicians who underestimated the virus and were felled by it, and at the other extreme younhave ones who were making up bald-faced lies about the "horrors" they'd seen and heard, also well documented. Think about the dozens of economists who predicted the worst depression in all of history if Trump was elected
  • gammanu95
    •
    4 years ago
    When in actuality we had the strongest growth in history, and record minority employment. Many if those jobs Obama said were gone forever DID come back. How about the climate scientists, hundreds of them, caught fudging data to fit their dire hockey-stick climate change model. No, the truth is hard to come by. In everything, just pick the side that most closely aligns with what you WANT to believe, and buckle up for the ride.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    gamma: you're consistently -- purposely? -- misreading. I am consistently and clearly talking about US deaths only. You keep bringing up worldwide stats, and I'm not sure why. The US, its policies and covid19 impact is what we're discussing. 500k is the lower range of estimates for US deaths for swine flu. 285k is the credible estimate of covid19 deaths in the US. 2700 is the credible estimate for covid19 deaths yesterday and it's been at about the level (but rising) for a few days. Yes, by the time this is over, we'll be at a US total -- not per capita, as again I pointed out consistently -- death count that is on par with the lower swine flu estimates for the US.
  • 8TM
    •
    4 years ago
    “With nearly 2 USA citizens dead every second, 24/7” I checked math and I assume OP meant to say every minute.
  • shadowcat
    •
    4 years ago
    Look on the bright side. We need to make room for all the new people when we go to open borders.
  • nicespice
    •
    4 years ago
    I might have had it way back late February. No idea though, since testing wasn’t available back then. 🤷🏻‍♀️ I do have to say I disagree there is going to be mass backlash against the vaccines. At my vanilla job, one of the pharmacists won’t be in the workplace for a whole month while she is handling a project doing vaccinations in facilities. This stuff is coming sooner than later. Also, there has been a recent change in rules (or law? Idk) so more individuals who normally don’t administer vaccines are now about to be trained to do that. There is definitely an anticipation of a huge surge demand. Even more so than flu shots (which were pretty insane especially month of September and October, and while not as bad, still a steady demand of people coming in for it even now). Which is a minor nitpick against the longer conversation debate stuff going on...but I have no interest in wading those waters. All I’ll say is that it will be an interesting few months ahead.
  • etsutwigg222
    •
    4 years ago
    Just got over having it. Sick for a week and due to age and underlying conditions felt worse than the flu. Interestingly, it was traced back to a doctors visit for another issue. Everyone was masked, 6 feet away and following all CDC guidelines at the time. Guess we may not know all we need to know about transmission to make great decisions.
  • Cashman1234
    •
    4 years ago
    When I am able to get the vaccine - I will get it. I’m not getting all worked up over wearing a mask and social distancing. I’m also not trying to play amateur infectious disease specialist. There is too much misinformation on the news every day. It can make folks panic when it’s not necessary. This seems simple in my view. You try and reduce the risk of catching the virus through simple means (wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands often), and get vaccinated when it becomes available. I got a flu vaccine a few months ago, and I’m not sure how effective it might be. It was a simple precaution, and I haven’t worried about it since.
  • Subraman
    •
    4 years ago
    "I checked math and I assume OP meant to say every minute." TIL: some people on tuscl can do math 🤣
  • Icee Loco (asshole)
    •
    4 years ago
    I know several people who have it . 2 have passed away. A friends grandmother and a cashier at a local grocery store. There's an asshole at a 7 11 who brags about having it.
  • nicespice
    •
    4 years ago
    ^ Curse you apoopdeep!
  • Nidan111
    •
    4 years ago
    I got COVID-19 Aug 1. Got sick as a fucking dog. I never get sick, but I did that time. Got through it. Now, I test for antibodies every 3 months. At this time, as of yesterday, I still have both IGM and IGG antibodies against the virus.
  • datinman
    •
    4 years ago
    I'm really surprised you'd have IgM 4 months later. I wonder if you had an asymptomatic second exposure.
  • TheeOSU
    •
    4 years ago
    "Curse you apoopdeep!" Don't you mean rumdummoron?
  • Jascoi
    •
    4 years ago
    i’m living life. had a minor bout with covid 19 a half year ago. thank God no breathing issues. life is a risk anyway and can’t live forever in this body. at my age time is short too.. see you at the clubs.
  • WavvyCain
    •
    4 years ago
    Got it back in February after leaving Chicago for all star weekend. I’m 28 so it wasn’t bad for me but my voice was fucked from all the coughing for a while. I lost 6 relatives to it, they lived in Miami.
  • sinclair
    •
    4 years ago
    I have been working 6-7 days a week and traveling for work since the outbreak in the United States. I wear a K95 mask whenever around people and have yet to have contracted the virus. However, other people I work with have gotten the virus. Most were wearing no mask, wearing the cheap blue surgical masks, or were the types of people who never wash their hands. One guy is a diabetic and had a heart attack less than a year ago, yet recovered from COVID-19 without any symptoms at all while positive. Another guy ended up on a ventilator for awhile and survived.
  • Nidan111
    •
    4 years ago
    At justintolook. In my estimate, immune globulin protein has about a 21 day half life. So, I’m probably at about the 5 half life range at which time the antibody completely disappears. The test is qualitative so all it proves is that SOME antibody is in my system. I am going to keep testing every 3 months just because.
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