How many tusl members have gotten COVID?
gotoguy
Florida
With nearly 2 USA citizens dead every second, 24/7, for the past few days (and increasing), and near 100 per second getting the disease I’ve been avoiding clubs? The weeks long illness and potential for many lifelong conditions is worrisome to someone my age.
I don’t have many dancer phone numbers that work anymore. Dancers and phones being unreliable and I'm sure some can't pay for them anymore. So, I am very tempted to go to clubs, even if it is just to score some numbers. How many wimps like me aren’t going to clubs for now, even if they are open?
I’m old enough to remember the early days of HIV and how drastically that effected things. I’m not much worried about HIV anymore, even though there is no HIV vaccine. Soon there is likely to be effective and safe COVID vaccine. How many of you are waiting 6 more months?
I don’t have many dancer phone numbers that work anymore. Dancers and phones being unreliable and I'm sure some can't pay for them anymore. So, I am very tempted to go to clubs, even if it is just to score some numbers. How many wimps like me aren’t going to clubs for now, even if they are open?
I’m old enough to remember the early days of HIV and how drastically that effected things. I’m not much worried about HIV anymore, even though there is no HIV vaccine. Soon there is likely to be effective and safe COVID vaccine. How many of you are waiting 6 more months?
71 comments
Several members have reported they got over Covid 19 earlier this year. I don't remember which ones. On a hopefully unrelated note, Isn't it odd that Papi_chulo hasn't posted in a couple of weeks. Hope he is well.
If I lived in an area with better clubs, like Tampa, Miami, or J-ville, I would still be going out. I've checked out the clubs in southwest Florida, and there is no point in going to the effort and risk.
COVID has just overtaken heart disease as the #1 killer in the U.S. For most rational people, that statistic represents a hell of a lot more than a scam.
For those of you who have contracted the coronavirus and were either asymptomatic or survived with minor symptoms, congrats. You have just hit the lottery through the grace of God.
For me, who am about to hit the 70-79 bracket where my odds of dying rise to 20 percent if I catch it, this disease is a fearsome thing.
I thank God every morning for the overworked doctors, nurses and orderlies who put their lives at risk every day as they deal with ERs, ICUs and other hospital facilities that are over capacity. I thank God for the ambulance personnel, firefighters and police who keep doing their jobs despite the heightened risk. I thank God for the poorly paid store clerk's who, despite the plexiglass screens and masks are at risk.
I speak for the generation who was alive when polio crippled two people in my elementary school and iron lungs were still a thing. I speak for my grandfather who lost his first wife the the flu pandemic of 1918. If you are unwilling to take the most basic precautions like social distancing, wearing a mask, teleworking, getting a test when you've been exposed, self isolating when it's needed when it's allowed and getting vaccinated as soon as you are able, then you are demonstrably a selfish SOB who doesn't care who he might infect and possibly kill.
Look guys, if I were your age I might be nervous too. But it's the height of foolishness to believe that young people are going to quarantine and social distance forever. Did you when you were young? How many of you would have been able to feed yourselves before you made it to a point where you could "telework?" Your fear is so insidious that you are not able to grasp the realities facing low income workers, school children and other young people, most of whom are at virtually no risk of serious consequences.
So if you are high risk then by all means protect yourselves. If you are too stupid to grasp how to do that by now then I'm not sure what to tell you. But don't expect young people to stop working and living for a freakin' year or longer just because of a disease that isn't dangerous to them. Maybe they would if this were the Spanish flu or polio or iron lung, but for most people COVID is a powder puff compared to those horrible diseases.
I hate to be the one to break the news, but the vaccine is not going to create herd immunity and wipe out COVID because there is simply too much resistance to taking it in the low risk groups. I may take it and Mrs. Dugan certainly will, but why should I put a rushed to market vaccine into my children to protect them from something that isn't dangerous to them? Not gonna' happen.
Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail and we will start to view this as a way to protect the most vulnerable rather than a magic pill to rid the world of COVID. At least once the media his gone through ample histrionics about how adoption rates are not high enough - government leaders need to mandate vaccination - etc., etc.
I will not be taking ANY new vaccines for at least a year. Other folks can be the guinea pigs. The risk to me from COVID are less than the risks from the vaccines.
Thanks for my first laugh of the morning, Rick. The dreaded iron lung disease. That's why I always look to the internet message boards for advise on epidemiology.
Get the stupid shot. It has shown to have virtually no side effects in the 60,000 people that have already had it.
There have been reported cases of people getting it more than once, and the second time around was worse than the first. No one knows how long anyone stays immune after contracting this virus...could be a month or could be a year. They just don't know. I don't know where people get the idea that once they got it they are immune forever. It simply isn't true.
I think the question of policy -- which is a political question -- is a different question than "how is it impacting us". There's lies and statistics, but the way things are looking: when covid first came out, people were howling that it wouldn't kill as many people as even a typical flu year (typical flu year is 40k deaths, in a really bad year 60k). Current covid19 deaths are at 285,000 and it's not been a full year yet. Yesterday 2700 died, which means if that number stays the same, covid will kill an entire flu season's worth of people every 15 days. However, we do NOT expect that number to stay the same, it's going to go up significantly as the people who caught it over Thanksgiving start dying (and take another bump if there are areas where the health system gets overwhelmed, which is again looking possible in some cities). All of that to say -- let's call March 1 a year, we may be in 400,000+ deaths -- which, yes, puts it right in the ballpark of the lower estimates for swine flu total deaths over a longer period (500k-700k). With luck, that will drop drastically as the vaccine rolls out.
Smart policy in response to this is a completely different question. But statistically, this is swine-flu class in total deaths, though not in per capita. Almost half a million dead is a big number no matter how you slice it, I would lean towards saying "probably not a scam"
I'm not saying that we shouldn't wear masks, social distance, and make smart decisions. I am saying that there is too much misinformation, fake news, and outright bullshit regarding the dangers of this virus.
Putting aside gam's accurate portrayal of the horrible over-reporting of death counts, even using the inflated numbers the simple reality is that:
- 92% of COVID deaths are occurring in ages 55 and over;
- 80% of deaths are with people over 65; and
- 60% of COVID deaths are in ages 75 and up.
And to add, many of these people have several other co-morbidities.
So "smart policy" that balancing the needs of the young with the needs of the old would seem to call for a split approach, allowing the young to continue on with necessary economic and educational activities while enhancing protections for the vulnerable. Yet some places can't seem to process this approach and instead impose devastating restrictions that hurt everyone.
And let's also call it like it is. Nobody should be confused about how to protect himself. If you get COVID, it's because you made a choice to be in close contact with others. That's on you. This notion that we are supposed to be people's lives and incomes on pause for a solid fucking year for a virus that is simply not deadly to most kids and working age adults is ridiculous.
Like I said, policy is a different topic entirely, it's a political one.
The fallacy in your logic is the assumption that all other death causes remain constant, which is the only way that the results of this study could be equated solely to COVID deaths. Deaths from other untreated medical conditions and ODs have most certainly risen and we don't have a clear view on the suicide stats yet, but those will likely have spiked to when we look back several months from now.
As far as the rest, I'm certainly not claiming that the folks who died didn't have COVID. But I 'm hearing entirely different versions as many of these people were already sick with one foot in the grave before COVID. What doesn't help is the 20% higher Medicare reimbursement rate for COVID vs. other illnesses, which incentivizes hospitals to play up the COVID angle (and treat the heck out of it) with patients that may not have been hospitalized primarily for COVID.
Variant analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes
Bull World Health Organ. 2020 Jul 1; 98(7): 495–504.
Published online 2020 Jun 2. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.253591
Findings
We identified 5775 distinct genome variants, including 2969 missense mutations, 1965 synonymous mutations, 484 mutations in the non-coding regions, 142 non-coding deletions, 100 in-frame deletions, 66 non-coding insertions, 36 stop-gained variants, 11 frameshift deletions and two in-frame insertions.
As Subraman says, the ICUs are not normally filled -- COVID is real -- COVID kills plenty of people who are otherwise young and healthy! Also many, of all ages, do not get completely better, and might have lifelong problems. Finally, the data suggests that there are actually very few people who have no significant symptoms. So no where near 30% nationally have been infected. Side effects include long term if not permanent psychiatric diseases. The cases are rising and almost 2 people die every minute, nearly two of three of those are men, and it could be you next time if you get a big initial infection with the next mutation. RD stay safe we need your posts.
The data suggests nothing of the sort. Studies conducted by the CDC and others actually suggest that for every person who has tested positive, 4-5 people had it and never got tested. Further follow-up on those results suggested that the overwhelming majority of cases were so mild that they were either asymptomatic or were easily confused with other minor common illnesses.
ICUs are filling up because they run at about 90% capacity at the best of times. Empty ICU space is very expensive to carry, so most hospitals carefully manage their inventories. There was never going to be a situation where a new virus was not going to strain existing capacity, hence the need for spillover temporary ICU units. Heck even a bad flu season strains existing ICUs.
That doesn't negate (or support) your views on policy -- that's a separate, political discussion about tradeoffs. But there is no reason to think the data isn't right on.
So, I, like others have said, now have no fear of it.
IMHO, under-50's in relatively good health should
Mild fever for a few days and then that went away, followed by 5 days where I lost my sense of smell and taste and during which the only odor I could smell was a weird tangy scent in the back of my nose. No respiratory issues or other more significant symptoms.
I think the more we know, including more people who have had it, the less we fear it. This thing has been treated like the black plague by the press because it's killing some already old and sick people. Now we should never want anybody to die, but the longer this goes on the more I'm convinced that we are horribly over-reacting to this virus.
I have elderly family members that I love dearly, but I will not visit, because it would be heartbreaking to be the one to bring tragedy to their door. Likely I would survive an infection, but I must think of others.
Debate this all you want, but the bottom line is that nobody knows anything for sure, not even the best scientists and certainly not random people on a forum.
As far as ICUs, there is no doubt that the added strain is coming from COVID. My point is that there wasn't much excess capacity available to begin with and there never is, so pointing to that as a sign of the virus' severity is a bit misleading.
Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 mutations in the United States
Rui Wang1, Jiahui Chen1, Kaifu Gao1, Yuta Hozumi1, Changchuan Yin2, and Guo-Wei Wei1,3,4*
1Department of Mathematics,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA.
2Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science,University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA
3Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA.
4Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology,Michigan State University, MI 48824, USA.
July 28, 2020
Complete genome sequence data can provide us with a wide variety of opportunities to decode the mutation-induced transmission and infection behavior of COVID-19. In this work, we downloaded 28726 complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from GISAID ( https://www.gisaid.org/) up to July 14, 2020. Based on the genotyping results, we obtain 28726 SNP profiles, which record all of the single mutations compared to the first complete genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 in the GenBank (access number: NC045512.2). Among them, 7823 SNP profiles are decoded from the genome isolates submitted by the United States, and 49682 single mutations are detected.
TUSCL is a fun diversion, but most of the boards I am in are evidence based. If you say my statement was factually incorrect cite at least one source to support your position.
Why is it that all of the authors and references in that article hail from China? Are you unaware of the well documented CCP practice of recruting and paying Chinese nationals to enroll in US research institutions to steal technology, research, and sow disinformation? Can you corroborate this article? Has it been peer reviewed? Why does it stand in stark contradiction to other, better established research, which demonstrates that the novel coronavirus is slow to mutate? Quit sucking Xi's cock, already.
There is no Science nor grand policy that's correct only lots of bullshit masquerading as such.
NAAAASTY
Nope. You called me out. I provided citations for my statement. Now can you provide even one citation for yours. That is how discussions on science work (and usually without name calling). If you can't I will assume you just don't know what you are talking about. BTW Are you even familiar with SNPs?
Dude, COVID would have to kill 2 million Americans to be on par with the Spanish Flu on a per capita basis. Our population has tripled since 1918. The biggest difference is that the Spanish flu was killing children in large numbers, which is not the case with COVID.
As far as the rest, your assumption that I'm getting a single spec of my data from political sites is misplaced. The mortality rates, estimated prevalence data, pre- and post-COVID ICU capacity and other stats are coming directly from CDC and state reporting sources.
While my skepticism regarding death reporting is indeed a product of less reliable and sometimes anecdotal reporting, the reality is that even if we assume that those numbers are correct, COVID is just not especially dangerous to most people under 55. At some point we need to stop acting like it is from a public policy standpoint. Thankfully I live in a state where those realities are understood.
Subra, no credible source has ever put 500K as a lower estimate for Swine Flu deaths. The most conservative estimates bottom out at 20,000,000. The COVID numbers you reported are not xoming from scientists and medical personnel. They are coming from governments and bureaucrats, each with their own fiefdom to expand and agenda to pursue. However, suppose they were coming from scientists and physicians. They, too, are more intersted in puahing their interests and paradigms than they are in cold, hard, data. Read all the articles about nurses and physicians who underestimated the virus and were felled by it, and at the other extreme younhave ones who were making up bald-faced lies about the "horrors" they'd seen and heard, also well documented. Think about the dozens of economists who predicted the worst depression in all of history if Trump was elected
No, the truth is hard to come by. In everything, just pick the side that most closely aligns with what you WANT to believe, and buckle up for the ride.
I checked math and I assume OP meant to say every minute.
I do have to say I disagree there is going to be mass backlash against the vaccines. At my vanilla job, one of the pharmacists won’t be in the workplace for a whole month while she is handling a project doing vaccinations in facilities. This stuff is coming sooner than later. Also, there has been a recent change in rules (or law? Idk) so more individuals who normally don’t administer vaccines are now about to be trained to do that. There is definitely an anticipation of a huge surge demand. Even more so than flu shots (which were pretty insane especially month of September and October, and while not as bad, still a steady demand of people coming in for it even now).
Which is a minor nitpick against the longer conversation debate stuff going on...but I have no interest in wading those waters. All I’ll say is that it will be an interesting few months ahead.
I’m not getting all worked up over wearing a mask and social distancing. I’m also not trying to play amateur infectious disease specialist.
There is too much misinformation on the news every day. It can make folks panic when it’s not necessary.
This seems simple in my view. You try and reduce the risk of catching the virus through simple means (wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands often), and get vaccinated when it becomes available.
I got a flu vaccine a few months ago, and I’m not sure how effective it might be. It was a simple precaution, and I haven’t worried about it since.
TIL: some people on tuscl can do math
🤣
There's an asshole at a 7 11 who brags about having it.
Don't you mean rumdummoron?
had a minor bout with covid 19 a half year ago. thank God no breathing issues.
life is a risk anyway and can’t live forever in this body. at my age time is short too..
see you at the clubs.