Stock market moves on anticipation, not results. It dropped a third in March because of uncertainty, no one knew how bad it was going to be.
Current trajectory is baked into the market. A major outbreak or vaccine delay might hurt, but Trump and the fed are throwing so much money into the market. Don't fight the fed.
The stock market is overvalued, until you recall it always reflects where the economy will be in 6 months.
February 2021:
- Trump still President
- BLM riots halted
-Vaccine being distributed
-Businesses fully open
- Iran capitulates to US
- Jobs rapidly returning to US from China
- New tax cuts, Reg reduction, and infrastructure bill
I'm just dumping extra into my 401k (currently 20% instead of the 10% I was at last year) and paying off debt. I have my 401k set up with a good mix of stocks and bonds and won't be touching it for about 25 years so I figure it should be safe that way.
As I've posted in the past, I'm not knowledgeable enough about the market to be trying to get in and out trying to time-it or maximize my returns - talk about an over-valued market goes back to early-2019 and a good # of people spent a good amount of 2019 out of the market and missed a great 2019 - similarly the Covid issue, there were probably people that got out once the market had lost a good amount but then missed the rebound.
I don't see myself as an "investor" per se, I see myself as a saver and just use stocks to get the most of what I'm putting away - studies have shown that most people that try to get out/in during a downturn usually end-up losing more $$$ than those that rode the downturn (I made the mistake of getting out in '09 and staying out too long).
I don't doubt there may be some savvy investors that can get in and out and do ok but it probably bites the avg person in the ass - I put $$$ in periodically and if the market is down then I'm buying at a bit of a discount - for the most-part IDK how the market will perform and I feel I can't afford to sit on the sidelines waiting for the perfect opportunity - in my mind if one has more than 5 years to retirement then one may lose more by staying out than waiting for the market to be "better valued".
Inflation is kicking in slowly, because people have nowhere to down money except with the goods and services available after all the other businesses shut down. The strong survive and will command those prices with less competition from other sources. With rates so low, people are forced to invest in both asset classes for fear of not keeping up with inflation. Big institutional investors have to answer to their constituents about ROI, and forced to take on risk. Is the market overvalued? Not really if there is nowhere else to put your money. By the way, there are still trillions of $$ sitting on the sidelines in money markets waiting to be put to work. I falsely claimed a short term top a month ago, and long term I see inflation rising to above 2% in the next year, but equities climbing higher after a few more pullbacks to double where it is at in 10 years. Not a crazy prediction if you know about the rule of 72, markets could be at 50,000 on the DOW by 2027. It could also be the same place as it is now, if inflation runs amok, but nobody can say with certainty. Productivity is rising and thy bids well for a tame inflation rate.
Yup, there's a thing called dollar cost averaging. Put a selected percentage of monthly income into stock and bond funds each month be it 5%, 10%, whatever. In the long run, stocks and bonds perform better than savings/money market accounts. Fixed dollar amount each month has you buying less shares when stock is up, more when stocks are down, thus getting you closer to the ideal buy low, sell high model. One study of a 60% stocks/40% bond portfolios between 1926 and 2014 had it making making money in 79 out of 80 10 year periods studied. Average annual gain was ~ 8% per year.
^^ I’m no big dick guy, but
I’ll pull the trigger on those calls and buy you a drink at your favorite strip club watering hole when clubs open again. Incognito or course.
MackTruck it's time for you to go public with an IPO. Regardless of the economy or which political party wins, there will always be shit. It's the ultimate defensive stock.
26 comments
Current trajectory is baked into the market. A major outbreak or vaccine delay might hurt, but Trump and the fed are throwing so much money into the market. Don't fight the fed.
Buy Low Sell High
Following Juices footsteps.
February 2021:
- Trump still President
- BLM riots halted
-Vaccine being distributed
-Businesses fully open
- Iran capitulates to US
- Jobs rapidly returning to US from China
- New tax cuts, Reg reduction, and infrastructure bill
The price of Mamisan’s stock will be higher than Berkshire Hathaway!
Plus they won't send you dick pics either right cj.
> https://tuscl.net/discussion/72095/
That’s the real deal! As Tillman Firtitta says.
This is America.
I don't see myself as an "investor" per se, I see myself as a saver and just use stocks to get the most of what I'm putting away - studies have shown that most people that try to get out/in during a downturn usually end-up losing more $$$ than those that rode the downturn (I made the mistake of getting out in '09 and staying out too long).
I don't doubt there may be some savvy investors that can get in and out and do ok but it probably bites the avg person in the ass - I put $$$ in periodically and if the market is down then I'm buying at a bit of a discount - for the most-part IDK how the market will perform and I feel I can't afford to sit on the sidelines waiting for the perfect opportunity - in my mind if one has more than 5 years to retirement then one may lose more by staying out than waiting for the market to be "better valued".
I’ll pull the trigger on those calls and buy you a drink at your favorite strip club watering hole when clubs open again. Incognito or course.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center…
With pathetic bond yields there's no place to put your money. Hence, a grossly overvalued stock market.