Future Predictions

1. June
2. Late May
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. No, they will have spectators
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. Middle of may
9. Fuck if I know
10. I see 1 more check
11. 50/50 Zaxby's/Dominoes

1. August
2. May/June in a limited capacity. But retail was struggling and many stores will never re open.
3. No
4. probably not. By August it's pointless
5. yes with no preseason. Playoffs may have fans?
6. It's going to vary wildly but I'll say yes as there are lab classes that you just can't do well remote. But many lecture classes will still be remote.
7. Yes, possibly with some delays in some areas
8. soon in a limited capacity slowly ramping up. Demand will be slow for a time.
9. the majority will reopen although some will choose to limit capacity
10. probably not. For better or worse I expect future stimulus money to be targeted at corporations and the poor. The 1200 was meant to be an imperfect but speedy solution and compromise and future bills will be more targeted.
11. he's saving it for when clubs reopen

1. mid 2021
2. fall 2020
3. No
4. Yes
5. No
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. Too soon with their moron mayor
9. About 50%, but we'll never really know this
10. No
11. Hope not

Wow, some interesting Points, but I don’t have time to do a homework project. Glad to see others chiming in. It gives some Perspective on the topic.

1. never; 2) late summer 2020-only to be closed in the late fall;3) No; 4) yes; 5) No; 6) no; 7) some places; 8) Late spring 2021; 9) 20%; 10) yes, but it is another nail in our coffin; 11) no.

Skibum, you’re always ranting on here about these situations but I gotta say, your predictions are excellent IMO and align very closely with mine...

Sometimes I just see the yelling and the logic behind the yells gets lost.

So many variables. I gave the questions some thought and I just think it’s unknowable. Like skiing in a mogul field. React to each bump.

Plus, some states/governors will handle it well. Others will screw up and need to lock down again in the fall.

We may see a mass exodus from poorly managed urban areas to better managed parts of the country. That’s a shift that was on a decade long timetable that will become a 6-12 month timetable.

1. summer 2021
2. december 2020
3. no
4. yes
5. yes
6. yes
7. yes
8. doesn't matter. vegas as we know it is done. replaced by online casinos/sportsbooks
9. better question is of those that do open, how many will survive sans sales/customers
10. yes
11. no

1- July 2- July 3- Not in front of fans. 4- Not in front of fans until maybe August 5- NFL will have fans. 6- Yes 7- Yes 8- June 9- 50% /. 100% two weeks later 10- No 11- Yep

Shai - you see yelling, but its delivered deadpan. I simply do not write well and that includes at work. One of our now retired crankier Superior Court Judges one time remarked to me after a hearing: "Wonderful, cooncise, cogent argument counsel. You have me convinced; is surprising because after reading the brief you submitted I wasn't sure you were even an attorney". Words on a screen have no emotion, so people provide their own. Mark - Thanks for mentioning skiing moguls. Trees around here get bumped up very quickly and my wife shot a video of me skiing bumps in the trees at killington through 15" new. Watching it on a loop.

1. May 2021

2. June 2020

3. Yes

4. Yes

5. Yes

6. Yes

7. No

8. June 15, 2020

9. 20-25%

10. No

11. Yep

12. There have always had restrictions, Fire Marshal etc., but pre-covid 19 norms will be after 2nd wave, possibly vaccine.

13. No different really than Target or Walmart that never closed in the first place. 3,4,5. No league is going to risk having to refund TV rights money.

14. Some businesses will never come back because they don't have the cash on hand for a restart. The PPP loans won't offset zero cash flow for two months.

15. Some of the paper stim checks aren't even being sent until September.

"So many variables. I gave the questions some thought and I just think it’s unknowable. Like skiing in a mogul field. React to each bump. "

Agree. And there's the big wildcard of treatment. While everyone is for some reason focused on a vaccine, which is over a year away at best, there are dozens of other treatments being tested, and any one of them can be shown to have merit any week now. As a rough guess, figure 3-5 months to scale up availability, and we could see everyone but the elderly and those with multiple comorbidities out and about by the fall.

Just a wild guess, I don't think everything gets back to normal for at least another 2 years.

“Mark - Thanks for mentioning skiing moguls. Trees around here get bumped up very quickly and my wife shot a video of me skiing bumps in the trees at killington through 15" new. Watching it on a loop.“

The first time I skied out West, I did some off trail tree skiing. Totally unprepared. I hit a sapling and snapped it off. I was incredibly lucky it was a sapling.

1. October 2020 in California
2. June 2020 in California
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. Yes
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. Memorial Day Weekend
9. 10%
10. Yes
11. No

1. 12/31/2021
2. 10/1/2020
3. No
4. Yes
5. Yes
6. Some
7. Some
8. 6/30/2020
9. Georgia???
10. Yes

2nd wave possibly will hit in the late Fall and might be worse. Immunity might not exist and folks will get it multiple times. It will be bedlam and hate crimes will rise with attempts to eradicate certain "carriers". Vaccine is not realistic this year plus we will have to deal with the anti-vaxers.

There isn’t enough data yet, but those reports of some people being reinfected could mean a vaccine is unworkable for CoVid. The theory behind vaccines is that, once exposed to a mild variant of the virus, the body learns to make antibodies that prevent future infections. If CoVid has found a way around this, we’re screwed.

On #9, the local news surveyed a bunch of restaurants and most are NOT going to open dine-in today. One reason for those that want to open but are not is the order did not give them sufficient time to prep to re-open.