Jobless claims: More than 26 million Americans file in the last 5 weeks

With China, Russia, Iran and North Korea spoiling for a fight there is going to bea war long before the end of this depression.

Brutal. Incomprehensibly brutal.

That's a lot. And it is only the start. There are business owners like me that have yet to lay anyone off because I think I'm getting some from the PPP. If I don't get that, then I will let go several. And the PPP only covers my payroll for 2 and a half months. If things haven't opened up by the middle of the summer, I may let those people go anyway. There are tens of thousands of businesses out there just like mine. Also, state and local governments are going to start having sales tax shortfalls. Furloughs from government is coming if we don't changed things.

OPEN IT UP !

Imagine being a state, county, city, or business with unfounded pension liabilities. As dilusional as it may be, this may seem like a good opportunity to get out from under the obligation.

Either get the bailout money or use the meltdown as an excuse to default.

I'm struggling to understand the rationale to continue the lockdown. There must be misguided hidden agendas.

I'm really confused because Georgia's governor is opening it up and Trump is now against that?

That confuses me too. Like do much of this. I must have a misunderstanding of "the cure" because if we use it as the criteria to reopen, either we will never reopen or never be able to stay open.

the curve not cure

This is going to be debated till eternity. There is a really good comparison to be made with Sweden.

In Sweden, they're doing a very soft lockdown. Nothing's really closed, just urging everyone to use common sense. The economy is still mostly going. My company has factories there that are not closed. Restaurants and bars are open, only large gatherings are prohibited.

Sweden's per capita death rate right now is .019%. The US's per capita death rate right now is .015% with much more extreme measures.

To put that into perspective, the USA as of today has 48,000 deaths. If the Swedish death rate would be applicable in the USA, it would be about 64,000 deaths. So the difference is 16,000 deaths. Sorry to make this about numbers, I know it's not sensitive to those that have lost loved ones, but it's reality.

So the question is, are the extreme measures so far worth roughly 16,000 deaths (to date) or basically a death rate that is roughly 1/3 higher than what it is today. Of course, this assumes a soft lockdown in the USA would have a similar death rate to Sweden, and I doubt that. The rules wouldn't be followed as well here, so the rate is likely higher, but you can't really prove that theory so it's only a theory.

I'm not going to answer my own question. Every life lost can be argued is one too many. But I do buy into the point that both sides of this equation need to be looked at. Flame away if you have better arguments to make. I am glad I am not a politician during this time because these are terrible offsets to have to consider.

Swedes are much more mature than Americans and can social distance themselves with less strict rules. They also were already doing more telecommuting

what skibum said about starting a fight with russia, iran, china its kinda of fucked up that theres hardly any resistance to send young men to die in a war, but now that theres a virus that kills the elderly the world comes to a screaching halt.

The following are having a significant impact on Arizona Revenue;
1. State Sales Tax
2. State Income Tax
3. State Gasoline Tax
4. State Lottery Sales

Of course we need to get the economy back asap, but we also need to get it right, if we just react without paying attention to what’s happening with the virus we are going to not only get it wrong we will fall so far behind we won’t be able to get back. If you aren’t alive you can’t recover

@25 - I wish I had a better understanding of what "get it right" means.

My understanding - Covid is not going away. Most will catch it at some point. Vaccine is wishful thinking. So is effective treatment. Only solution is a painful herd immunity.

Testing will help of course but doesn't seem feasible to implement at scale and pace needed.

Given all of this, I'm struggling with the rationale to drive the world into a great depression and have no idea how it can be reopened without going thru a great deal of pain.

@salty “its kinda of fucked up that theres hardly any resistance to send young men to die in a war, but now that theres a virus that kills the elderly the world comes to a screaching halt.”

Total number US soldiers dead in both Iraq and Afghanistan is about 7000. Coronavirus is 47000 and counting, AFTER taking account of protective measures. No, those numbers don’t tell the whole story but if you want to measure the decision by deaths, those are the numbers.

Also, to say there was no resistance to sending soldiers to Iraq and Afghanistan is not true.

^ Everyone wishes they had a better understanding of what get it right means, before getting it right we need to come to an agreement on facts, when that starts to happen we will have a chance to get it right, untill then it’s going to be a mess.

@jamesd “I'm really confused because Georgia's governor is opening it up and Trump is now against that?”

@lone wolf “That confuses me too.”

Are you guys actually confused by this? Alert, I’m not a trump fan. It makes complete sense. Trump talks a big game until it’s time to be held accountable. If he supported the reopening he would own the consequences. Or do you mean his flip flop from repeatedly pushing states to open? Again, not surprising to us crazies with TDS. We never believe a thing he says and are never surprised when he pretends he never said something and pretends tv cameras haven’t recorded his every word.

PS - stay tuned for an epic flip flop if that VA study is correct and hydroxychloraquine actually is more likely to kill you and has no impact on covid.

^ Then tell CNN to report facts instead of making things up !

I'm of the opinion that it's time for cautiously opening up, those areas that want to open up. I am a huge #OpenFlorida fan. Here in CA, Napa (with very few cases) is doing the same; SF and LA will be much, much further behind. We'll hope for the best. I'm not planning to go to Napa anytime soon, but it will be interesting to see what happens there as a zillion golfers throughout the state converge on Napa to shoot some club or whatever they call it

The economic implications are enormous -- which we knew would happen, and was a tradeoff we (certainly I) were willing to make. But anywhere the curve has been truly flattened and has low incidence, if they want to open up, let's see where it leads. I have a theory that it won't lead anywhere good, but this (not a month ago, based on delusions of cures happening in a week) is the time to take small gambles.

===> "If he supported the reopening he would own the consequences."

Well, I think it's more accurate to say that ankle biting weasels would trip over themselves to try to tie every death thereafter around his neck, ignoring the notion that grown adults can and will make their own choices. It's the same political nonsense that has led to this level of economic devastation in the first place.

But it has gone on far enough. Too bad our population isn't made up of more people like the Swedish and less people like Jimmy, but here we are. The same people who are lifting their skirts up now and squealing about the virus are going to be crying poverty 6 months from now and blaming leaders when their own jobs dry up due to continued economic weakness.

I have recently become a proponent of the notion that we should reduce the Social Security payments of every old person to help fund the enhanced unemployment benefits of those who have been consigned to involuntary poverty. This of course would expire in June unless unemployment is extended. I bet public opinion would shift very quickly then in favor of opening up. ;)

===> "I am a huge #OpenFlorida fan."

Oh golly gee Sub, you're just so clever, really you are. And fear not that incessant repetition of the same joke makes it no less clever, no siree. 😉

^ so we know where you stand yessiree bobo but here’s where we are, Trump did an absolute flip flop on Kemp in Georgia you can’t count on him for cover, anyone can see there are consequences of openings and not getting it right, will be catastrophic and the governor who gets it wrong is toast whether they’re Democrats or Republican

I am #OpenFlorida and proud, man. No idea what your problem is. It's exactly the right thing to do.

BTW, it's not (completely) a joke -- I honestly want to see Florida open up. I could pass a lie detector on that.

I personally prefer an #opensomewesternstate, maybe that’s just me though 🤩

Gov of Florida is announcing his plan tomorrow. It would not surprise me if there aren't two plans. One for where 25 lives, another for the rest of the state. Seems SE FL has a real problem, the rest of the state, not so much.

^ 25, I don't completely disagree, for the reason I stated above:

--Well, I think it's more accurate to say that ankle biting weasels would trip over themselves to try to tie every death thereafter around his neck, ignoring the notion that grown adults can and will make their own choices. It's the same political nonsense that has led to this level of economic devastation in the first place.--

Now the national press (the aforementioned ankle biting weasels) are going to report every death and uptick in infections as if Kemp is personally responsible for each one. I am simply glad that he had the courage to do it anyway because he is the Governor of the entire state, including all of those people who are being savaged by financial hardship with no way to help themselves.

Hopefully DeSantis will be next. Now that many of those stimulus checks aren't going to come for months and unemployment is several weeks backlogged, many millions of service workers are getting desperate. He is their Governor too, not just the Governor of scared Social Security recipients and fat comfortable white office workers.

^ I get it the only ones with integrity are those that agree with you, that’s how you always play it, I got news for you just because you’re side is loud, ornary and unable to compromise doesn’t make you anything but loud ornary and stupid.

I watched Anderson Cooper feign confusion and disgust as he interviewed Vegas Mayor Goodwin. Goodwin is advocating a complete and immediate reopening.

She will let the customers and business owners decide the best way to do. She is being pillared of course.

There had been around 200 Covid deaths in Nevada to date.

25, I feel contempt for anyone who: (1) engages in fear mongering; and (2) shows such utter disregard for the plight of 10s of millions of working Americans. I was going to use "callous disregard" in my previous sentence, but that would be giving it too much credit. Instead it is simply dismissive, as if those people don't even exist or matter.

Thankfully certain Governors understand that not everyone can afford the luxury of sitting around in their pajamas, squealing about social distancing and ordering Amazon Prime deliveries because they're still getting a full paycheck or their full government benefits.

^ after watching Donald Trump throw Brian Kemp under the bus then put the bus in reverse and run over him again I doubt very much if any governor will take a shot at opening early, I think Ron DeSantis is having second thoughts that’s why he deferred saying what he was going to do, until tomorrow. I’ll be very surprised if he does what you think RickiBoi.

I'm really fortunate in that I can still work, even in my non-essential role. *Un*fortunately, I am also on the cusp of being in the the second most at-risk group.

So I'll probably continue to stay home for a few weeks after everybody else goes back to work.

Nice try jimmcnulty...the average age of deaths in the vietnam war was 24 years old. also look up the average age for both Iraq and afghanstan. youre completely missing the point. The average death rate for corona is 65 +. However, if your not fat, and took care of yourself during mid age youre probably going to make it even if youre over 65 years old.

From a recent CNBC article titled "She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it" - in a nutshell, her employees were pissed at her for getting the PPP loan b/c her employees would get more $$$ if they got unemployment benefits vs what they earned working for her - this was in Washington-state which has some of the highest state Unemployment benefits which added to the $600 federal payment it's good $$$ for low-wage workers:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got-…

===> "I think Ron DeSantis is having second thoughts that’s why he deferred saying what he was going to do, until tomorrow. I’ll be very surprised if he does what you think RickiBoi."

We shall see 25. If I had to guess, I suspect that he is going to open the economy in stages and probably ease restriction sooner in counties that aren't named Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. In the rest of the state, the numbers have trended down very fast and many people are already starting to ignore stay at home orders anyway.

I should also add that the unemployment system in FL is utterly overwhelmed with 3-4 week backlogs and many stimulus checks aren't landing anytime soon, so DeSantis is under a lot of pressure to open things back up where he can.

***Here is a RickDugan prediction***
A lot will open up in FL by May 4th. Kids doing distance learning in my county are now quietly being told to get all of their outstanding work submitted by May 1 for final grades. Wanna guess why that is? Because parents can't go back to work if they have to stay at home to supervise distance learning kids. I'm guessing that Summer break is about to start early in a lot of counties so that parents can put kids in Summer programs and go back to work.

Georgiuh is the new Floriduh

Floriduh must be doing something right. People from all over the northeast and midwest are relocating their homes and businesses here in droves.

Have to suspect many states will be tempted to use this pandemic to get out from under huge unfunded pensions.

Stay closed long enough they can get a bailout or declare bankruptcy.

Democratic party base had no jobs to lose.

@salty “Nice try jimmcnulty...the average age of deaths in the vietnam war was 24 years old. also look up the average age for both Iraq and afghanstan. youre completely missing the point. The average death rate for corona is 65 +. However, if your not fat, and took care of yourself during mid age youre probably going to make it even if youre over 65 years old.”

Apples and oranges (both my argument and yours). It’s not just the age of the dead or the number of dead. 7k dead 25 y.o. soldiers over a 20 year period in Iraq and Afghanistan does not equal 50k dead (and counting) mostly older people over a 2 month period. Which is worse? Does it matter? It’s not like we can exchange one for the other. Something else to consider is that those soldiers chose to defend our country, and I thank them for it. It would be extremely selfish of me or anyone else to make the choice for the neediest older people that I’m taking my chances, you old folks are going to take your chances too.

Not a black and white issue and we will reopen. I want to have confidence that those in charge or the decision are being thoughtful about it.

“in charge OF the decision...”

===> "It would be extremely selfish of me or anyone else to make the choice for the neediest older people that I’m taking my chances, you old folks are going to take your chances too."

That's simplistic. Old people have some control over the level of risk they expose themselves to, unlike the soldiers in the analogy. They can continue to shelter, wear masks in public, distance, etc.,etc.

Sooner or later we are going to have to face the fact that we are only delaying the inevitable and at extraordinary cost. A vaccine is at least a year away, if it ever comes, and nationwide "tracing and tracking" is neither realistic nor likely constitutional. This leaves only herd immunity as the solution as this thing is not going away.

When an autopsy is done of this whole mess years from now, it is likely that Sweden's response is going to look very good comparatively. They are taking their lumps upfront, while trying to protect the elderly in the process, while also preserving their economy for the benefit of the many millions who Swedes who depend upon it.

Dugan, your trolling style is tiresome. You pick out a sentence or come up with a straw man and then argue against it. Of course I don’t get to make the decision and my sentence was simplistic. I was agreeing with you that we have to reopen. Here’s the point again since you chose to ignore it:

“Not a black and white issue and we will reopen. I want to have confidence that those in charge or the decision are being thoughtful about it.”

Having confidence in any level of government after this should be committment grounds. So far only %99.98 of everything everyone in power has said has been pure bullshit.

>That's simplistic. Old people have some control over the level of risk they expose themselves to, unlike the soldiers in the analogy. They can continue to shelter, wear masks in public, distance, etc.,etc.<
Wow just wow RickiBoi, your grasping at straw men, just to make an argument, where there is no argument is pathetic, to the extreme. Everyone want's to reopen, the conversation is how is the best way to do that, you're being a complete jackass, suggesting one group is more deserving than another.
Just keep making the same tired argument throughout your posts, there's always a bogey man trying to take away what's your's. It's old people, its transsexuals, it's blacks, its latino's your entire body of postings always look for a scapegoat, then foment an argument just to keep yourself occupied, and hypothesize that the person that disagrees with you is a member of that group you are villianizing at the moment.

When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?#

Disingenuous histrionics combine the histrionic’s more adaptive social skills, charm, and ability to read the motives and desires of others with a rather calculated malevolence. This histrionic variant is more egocentric, more willingly insincere, and probably more conscious of their manipulations than is the basic histrionic pattern.

**They often seem to enjoy conflict, gaining a degree of gratification or amusement from the excitement and tension they produce.**

JimmyMcNulty 2 hrs ago: "Dugan, your trolling style is tiresome. You pick out a sentence or come up with a straw man and then argue against it.'

If you enjoy sparring with dugan for shits and giggles, enjoy. If you expect a sincere interest in content, consistency in argument, or anything more than superficial social interaction, you picked the wrong TUSCL persona.


#Where Have All the Flowers Gone? 1955 song by Pete Seeger

Heard a little while ago that AutoNation was giving back $95-million it had gotten in PPP goverment-loans (while most of the moms and pops seemed to be left out)

Eventually, we will have to reopen the economy. The bread, meat, milk, chicken and eggs on our tables will run out. It does not magically appear in the grocery store. It would be nice if the government actually had a plan, where we wouldnt go back into lockdown if the number of covid cases start to rack up. The lock downs are essentially buying time to prepare, for example getting ventillators. But the harsh reality is if youre on a ventillor theres an 80 percent chance youre going to die. So why is the government try to build and waste time with ventillators. they should try to build up stock piles of PPE, make covid hospitals, how can they protect the elderly better, but thats not happening. All were doing with the lock downs is resetting the peak. IMO we should try to hit the peak now, cause then winter is coming.

===> "If you enjoy sparring with dugan for shits and giggles, enjoy. If you expect a sincere interest in content, consistency in argument, or anything more than superficial social interaction, you picked the wrong TUSCL persona."

Joke, that was incredibly insightful. Truly. Clearly you are the one we should turn to when we desire sincere interest in content, consistency in argument and anything more than superficial interaction. 😉

I mean, I would mention that my interest in this is incredibly sincere and that my position on this has been consistent from the beginning, but I would hate to interrupt such cleverly crafted hyperbole, as vapid as it may be. 😀

===> “Not a black and white issue and we will reopen. I want to have confidence that those in charge or the decision are being thoughtful about it.”

Sadly I don't have the same level of confidence, especially when we have certain state Governors prohibiting things like lawn mowing and the sale of non-essentials at big box stores that are open anyway. I think that panic and unrelated politics have bled into this process in too many states.

Now I give some credit to the Governor of FL for taking a more balanced approach to this, but even he is a prisoner of panic politics now. I suspect that given his choice, he would have already re-opened the state, but political calculations play a role as ankle biters will try to hang every new fatality around his neck the second he does so.

This virus still has legs - supposedly it's now hitting the Midwest pretty-hard, and also seems California is recently getting more cases.

Total *new* U.S. cases was 25.7k on 04/05 and has being going up and down since and was an all-time high of 38.7k yesterday 04/23 - total deaths has also been up and down with a recent low of 1,570 on 04/19 but up to 2,340 yesterday 04/23.

Seems we're still in the thick of it, w/ social-distancing as the only way to effectively deal w/ it for now - and as testing has ramped-up and anti-body tests coming online, seems there are high #s of asymptomatic people that have no idea they have it.

We have increased testing here in San Diego which boosted our number of cases (although positives per test fell, but the total number of cases rose).

I'm ready for salons to reopen and I think any business that can do curbside or delivery should be open. Said it before though, I can't really figure out a way travel and hospitality aren't fucked. Even if there were no restrictions, I have a hunch the only people excited to travel for a while will be those who have tested positive for antibodies or recovered.

===> "Seems we're still in the thick of it, w/ social-distancing as the only way to effectively deal w/ it for now - and as testing has ramped-up and anti-body tests coming online, seems there are high #s of asymptomatic people that have no idea they have it."

The fact that we have increasing asymptomatic numbers argues in favor of easing restrictions, not against it. As time goes on it's becoming clear that this is far less deadly than we initially thought.

Is this where you earned your degree in Epidemiology ?
https://gomerblog.com/2016/03/trump-univ…

25, I'm starting to think that math wasn't your strong suit in school. I've re-posted your math lesson from a week ago with some minor tweaks for the different ratio being measured. 😉

***For 25's Math 101 education***
A percentage of a total is calculated by dividing the numerator, which is the sample (in this case, # of deaths) by the denominator, which is the total population (in this case, total # of infections). So if the denominator of total infections is dramatically under-reported, then the resulting % that result in death will look higher than it actually is. This is simple mathematics, lol.

Not going to Trump university regardless maybe I can get accepted into Wharton

BTW I didn't post that RickiBoi rong as usual

"many millions of service workers are getting desperate. "
so why not direct some of your pent up anger towards the state unemployment. if they had their shit together, non of the unemployed should be without means for food and rent. if you can't handle that with 3500-4500 a month, you have other issues.

"They can continue to shelter, wear masks in public, distance, etc.,etc"
you do realize that wearing a mask protects others from you being asymptomatic, right?

"Sweden's per capita death rate right now is .019%. The US's per capita death rate right now is .015% with much more extreme measures."
so why aren't you comparing Sweden's numbers with their bordering countries Norway and Finland?