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Who'd You Rather: First Round Babermetrics

AnonymousJim

Scanning the room from the back

So we're through the first round of the "Who'd You Rather" bracket and, before we start the second, I though I'd accumulate some stats from the round of 64.

There might be some conclusions to draw from this, though it's not a scientific survey in any way, nor is the sample size big enough. Still, in much the way good strip clubs presumably try to keep track of what does and doesn't work best for making money (mix of different types of girls, timing of promos, etc.), why shouldn't we mongers know what works best for us collectively?

You've heard of Sabermetrics in baseball, right?

This is like Sabermetrics, but for babes.

We'll call it ... Babermetrics. Party on, Garth. Schwing.

*OVERALL TURNOUT
- There were 716 valid votes cast across the 32 matchups.
- I didn't count the invalid votes, like however many times bang69 voted 'Both'.

*TURNOUT BY MATCHUP
- The average matchup had 22.4 votes.
- High turnout was for Salma Hayek/Jenny McCarthy with 31 votes.
- Low turnout was for Cynthia Brimhall/Isis Nile with 14.

It was notable that the Celebrity and Pornstar Brackets routinely had higher turnout than the B-Movie or Model Brackets. It's fair to say name recognition meant something.

*VOTES PER FIRST-ROUND MATCHUP BY BRACKET
- Celebrity: 25.1
- Pornstar: 24.3
- B-Movie: 20.5
- Model: 19.6

*WINNING AND LOSING VOTES ON AVERAGE

- The average matchup was won 13.8 votes to 6.4, or by a 7.4 vote margin on average.

- We'll also talk about matchup share, or what percent of the votes went a certain way. The average winning share was 62 percent and the average losing share 28 percent, which means the average share margin was 34 percent. That's close enough to say most votes were won by about a 2-to-1 ratio.

- That only adds to 90 percent because the average matchup also had 2.2 'Neither' votes, or about 10 percent of the share.

I encouraged those who felt 'Neither' was the case to vote that way, and some of you weren't afraid, particularly if you expressed a certain preference (no fake boobs, no blondes, whatever). However, it is kind of funny that the 'Neither' share ended up being about 10 percent, given what else they say about 10 percent of the population. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015… We'll call it a coincidence and leave it at that.

*AVERAGE 'NEITHER' VOTES PER MATCHUP BY BRACKET
- Pornstar: 3.0
- Model: 2.9
- B-Movie: 1.8
- Celebrity: 1.0

You guys may know your pornstars, but you're also more repulsed by them. Someone made the point to say that, in our fantasies, we want the girl next door, but in the club, we want the freak. Since we're just fantasizing with all of this, these numbers might bear that out.

I did say you guys know your pornstars, though, and I think that showed up in another way: The pornstar matchups were consistently the closest, as they had the lowest winning share and highest losing share.

*WINNING AND LOSING SHARE BY BRACKET WITH AVERAGE MARGIN OF VICTORY
- B-Movie: 68% winner/24% loser/8% neither/9.2 vote average margin of victory
- Celebrity: 67%/29%/4%/9.9
- Model: 60%/26%/14%/6.5
- Pornstar: 52%/35%/13%/4.3

With porn, most of us probably just find whatever we find online to watch, so we develop different preferences. With celebrities, we all know them and we kind of have an idea who is supposed to be hotter from what we've all seen collectively. In the potpourri Model Bracket, and the B-Movie bracket where there weren't a lot of familiar names, you guys may have partly followed the crowd after a while. I might be overthinking this, but it's a theory.

*SEEDING

I won't dwell too much on seeding since I'm the only one who knows the seeds. However, a little insight into how right/wrong I was:

- Of the 32 matchups, the better seed won 19, or 59 percent of the time.

- If you think about the seeds like the NCAA tournament, with each bracket being seeded 1 to 16, the top-performing underdog seeds were the 10 and 15 seeds, which all each have three ladies remaining. Yes, that means a 15-seed defeated a 2-seed three different times.

- At least one of every seed remains. Yes, we do have one UMBC.

- The 12 seed, just like March Madness, also did well with with two 12's advancing.

- The rest of the underdog seeds all had just one victory.

- We have one bracket where the 1 and 2 seeds are both already gone.

*SEED-WISE UPSETS BY BRACKET
- Pornstar: 5
- Model: 4
- B-Movie: 3
- Celebrity: 1

I read you guys well for which celebrities you liked, but I went moreso off name recognition than anything for the pornstar bracket. So with Lisa Ann, Capri Cavanni, Dillion Harper and Jesse Jane all going down (pornstar pun), that bracket looks nothing like how I imagined it.

I'm fine with this many upsets. It's a deeper field than what the NCAA puts together each year, so every matchup is closer and harder to predict.

Let's get into the nitty-gritty. Let's start with some likely favorites going forward.

*TOP OVERALL FIRST-ROUND VOTE-GETTERS
- Salma HAYEK (Celebrity), 27 votes
- Denise RICHARDS (Celebrity) & Nikki FRITZ (B-Movie), 20
- Four with 17

*TOP OVERALL FIRST-ROUND VOTE SHARE
- VICCA (Model), 94.4 percent
- Nikki FRITZ (B-Movie), 90.9
- Salma HAYEK (Celebrity), 87.1
- Rebecca ROMIJN (Celebrity), 80
- Lisa BOYLE (B-Movie), 77.3

*BIGGEST OVERALL MARGINS OF VICTORY
- Salma HAYEK def. Jenny McCARTHY (Celebrity), 23 vote margin
- Nikki FRITZ def. Sara Suzanne BROWN (B-Movie), 20
- VICCA def. Kelly TRUMP (Model), 16
- Three matchups with 13

*BIGGEST OVERALL VOTE SHARE DIFFERENTIALS
- Nikki FRITZ def. Sara Suzanne BROWN (B-Movie), 90.9 percent share differential
- VICCA def. Kelly TRUMP (Model), 88.9%
- Salma HAYEK def. Jenny McCARTHY (Celebrity), 74.2%
- Rebecca ROMIJN def. Candice MICHELLE (Celebrity), 65%
- Lorissa McCOMAS def. Shauna O'BRIEN (B-Movie), 61.9%

*TOP VOTE-GETTERS BY BRACKET
- Celebrity: Salma HAYEK (27), Denise RICHARDS (20), Donna D'ERRICO (17)
- B-Movie: Nikki FRITZ (20), Lisa BOYLE (17), Lorissa McCOMAS (16)
- Pornstar: Eva ANGELINA (17), Gianna MICHAELS/Silvia SAINT (16)
- Model: VICCA (17), Gia GENEVIEVE (15), Cory NADINE (12)

*TOP VOTE SHARE BY BRACKET
- Celebrity: Salma HAYEK (87.1), Rebecca ROMIJN (80), Denise RICHARDS (71.4)
- B-Movie: Nikki FRITZ (90.9), Lisa BOYLE (77.3), Lorissa McCOMAS (76.2)
- Pornstar: Eva ANGELINA (70.8), Silvia SAINT (59.3), Megan RAIN (55.6)
- Model: VICCA (94.4), Renae CRUZ (68.8), three with 57.1

*BIGGEST BLOWOUTS BY SHARE AND BRACKET

- Celebrity: Salma HAYEK def. Jenny McCARTHY (74.2 percent difference)
Rebecca ROMIJN def. Candice MICHELLE (65%)
Denise RICHARDS def. Pamela ANDERSON (42.9%)

- B-Movie: Nikki FRITZ def. Sara Suzanne BROWN (90.9%)
Lorissa McCOMAS def. Shauna O'BRIEN (61.9%)
Lisa BOYLE def. Stacy BURKE (59.1%)

- Pornstar: Eva ANGELINA def. Jesse JANE (41.7%)
Silvia SAINT def. Capri CAVANNI (22.2%)
Jenna JAMESON def. Madison IVY (20.8%)

- Model: VICCA def. Kelly TRUMP (88.9%)
Renae CRUZ def. Milly D'ABRACCIO (50%)
Cori NADINE def. Ashley SINCLAIR (33.3%)

Is it fair to draw some conclusions about who might be the favorites to come out of each bracket from these numbers? Sure, but keep a couple things in mind: In the second round, we're going to give you a second picture and clip for each woman, so that could be an equalizer. Plus, some of these high vote-getters are going head-to-head, like Hayek/Richards.

That's enough about the ladies, though. Let's talk about some trends.

I kept track of cup size, hair color and approximate "peak era" for each woman as we went along.

*CUP SIZE AND RECORD
A: 1 woman, 0-1 record (Nicole KIDMAN)
B: 3 women, 2-1 record (Winners: Megan RAIN & Rebecca ROMIJN, Loser: Shauna O'BRIEN)
C: 23 women, 12-11 record
D: 20 women, 11-9 record
DD: 15 women, 5-10 record
DDD: 2 women, 2-0 record (Gia GENEVIEVE and Gianna MICHAELS)

Both in terms of the number of women I picked, and their record, it seems like we found a sweet spot between C and D. Now keep in mind, a number of matchups had women with the same cup size going head-to-head. But consider this for matchups where there was a difference.

*BIGGER vs. SMALLER, BY BRACKET AND OVERALL
- Celebrity: SMALLER wins 4 of 5 matchups
- B-Movie: BIGGER wins 3 of 5 matchups
- Pornstar: BIGGER wins 1 of 2 matchups
- Model: Bigger & Smaller each win three times
- Overall: SMALLER wins 11 times, BIGGER wins 8 times

You guys may be proving that the majority opinion is truly more than a handful is too much, though let's not discount that if you want 'em big, you want 'em REALLY big, per the two wins for the DDD girls.

*PRIMARY HAIR COLOR AND RECORD
- Brunettes: 33 women, 20-13 record
- Blondes: 26 women, 10-16 record
- Redheads: 5 women, 2-3 record (Winners: Cynthia BRIMHALL & VICCA, Losers: Nicole KIDMAN, Brooklyn LEE & Rochelle SWANSON)

This is one where I wonder if certain people's preferences skewed our data. I know of at least one poster with an anti-blonde bias.

*ERA, RECORD AND BREAKDOWN BY BRACKET
- Early 90's: 7 women, 2-5 record (Celebrity: 0-2, B-Movie: 1-3, Model: 1-0)
- Mid 90's: 9 women, 4-5 record (Celebrity: 2-3, B-Movie: 2-1, Model: 0-1)
- Late 90's: 8 women, 6-2 record (Celebrity: 2-0, B-Movie: 2-1, Model: 2-1)
- Early 2000's: 15 women, 9-6 record (Celebrity: 2-0, B-Movie: 2-2, Pornstar: 2-1, Model: 3-3)
- Mid 2000's: 7 women, 2-5 record (Celebrity: 0-2, B-Movie: 1-1, Pornstar: 1-1, Model: 0-1)
- Late 2000's: 7 women, 4-3 record (Celebrity: 1-1, Pornstar: 2-2, Model: 1-1)
- Early 10's: 2 women, 0-2 record (Pornstar: 0-1, Model: 0-1)
- Mid 10's: 8 women, 4-4 record (Celebrity: 1-0, Pornstar: 3-3, Model: 0-1)
- Late 10's: 1 woman, 1-0 record (Model: 1-0)

The best-performing eras were the late 90's and early 2000's. I wonder if the onset of broadband Internet had anything to do with that. Also, note that B-movies were a thing pretty much up until the mid-2000s, while our pornstars don't start appearing until the early 2000's. Granted, that has more to do with my selection of models than anything else, but I think it's notable that Skinemax served a whole lot less use once broadband gave us porn whenever we wanted.

There you have it: Everything you wanted to know about the first round of the bracket. Feel free to both make fun of my obsessive calculations and discuss what you're thinking about the second round and things going forward.