Bitcoin

FTS
What do you think are the chances of Bitcoin price returning to $20,000 within the next 5 years? Even if the stock market returned 10% per year for the next 5 years (chances of that are very low), that would be a 61% total return. If bitcoin hits $20,000 again, that’s a 426% total return. Which is more likely? Considering the historical returns for the current CAPE ratio of S&P and huge amount of corporate debt, 10% per year for 5 years seems extremely unlikely.

15 comments

  • jackob85
    •
    6 years ago
    not likely bitcoin will be $20k in 5 years.
  • RandomMember
    •
    6 years ago
    Prediction tool based on the CAPE, now very high at about 31, (take it for what it's worth) predicts negative stock market returns over the next eight years or so:

    https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php

    I don't know anything about Bitcoin, except that someone like Shiller thinks the entire market is irrational.

    Quantitative tightening will probably be important going forward with Fed holding over $4T in mortgage-backed securities and treasuries. At the very least QT should raise interest rates and lower the demand for stocks. So the outlook for stocks really looks bad. QE was an experiment and QT continues that experiment.
  • AZFourTwenty
    •
    6 years ago
    0.00%
  • FTS
    •
    6 years ago
    @Random didn’t the fed announce recently that they’ve put QT on pause? I heard the consensus view is that the Fed might even start to lower rates.
  • RandomMember
    •
    6 years ago
    Yes QT (or some are calling quantitative unwinding) was put on hold.
  • FTS
    •
    6 years ago
    Disappointing, nobody here believes in Bitcoin.
  • Hank Moody
    •
    6 years ago
    What are the chances you lose all your money if you buy bitcoin v. losing all your money if you buy an S&P index fund?
  • Mate27
    •
    6 years ago
    No more than 5-10% of your investable assets should go to speculation, such as bitcoin.
  • skibum609
    •
    6 years ago
    Before investing a cent in bitcoin I would change it all into quarters and throw themn at people while I drove up and dopwn Las Vegas Blvd. Makes more sense financially.
  • twentyfive
    •
    6 years ago
    @Jimmy McNulty the chances you lose all of your money investing in the S & P or the Dow are very little, I own a little bitcoin actually sold off more than my original investment last year, what I hold now is just some gambling money, it could go to zero or the wheel could land on my number
  • FTS
    •
    6 years ago
    @skibum in the last 5 years the value of bitcoin has increased about 530%, whereas the value of those quarters has decreased about 7%. Hope you don’t throw away your bitcoins!
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    6 years ago
    FTS, have you considered the return on roulette wheels?

    How about horse races? Cock fights?

    SJG
  • FTS
    •
    6 years ago
    SJG, do you have a brain in your head? Markets are not casinos, dumbass!
  • twentyfive
    •
    6 years ago
    ^ He’s too cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs he’s now promoting the conspiracy that watergate was an attempt to blow up the Republican headquarters he’s certifiable
  • san_jose_guy
    •
    6 years ago
    FTS, have you considered investing in SJG coin?

    http://i.ebayimg.com/images/i/3608150365…

    SJG
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