OT: Workers displaced by technology

Sure look at all of the stores that are using self check outs

Amazon Go.

That is a large part of what i do for a living. Back in the 80s, i worked for a company with eight factories. Each factory had a roomful of clerks. These clerks calulated machine assignments, line speeds, resource utilization and so on. There were over 100 of them across all factories. They were replaced by a pc with a 10 meg hard drive and a couple of data entry clerks.

humanity finally being phased out

Except strippers...

George Orwell was wrong about only two things: the end of humanity began after 1984 and we did it to ourselves.

For every job that disappears, a new one will appear as a result of new technology. That’s the way it’s always been. At one time, 80% of the population was farmers and no one knew what a software engineer was.

Bathroom trolls won't be replaced by technology. There are some things a robot will refuse to do.

A lot of jobs now exist mainly to have a person responsible. Pharmacists don't actually do much but dispense pills.

It’s like they explain in the gods must be crazy. Everyone will just educate themselves more to keep up, even if it’s just for the sake of liability.

LOL Jack

LOL Jack - a robot is willing to disarm a bomb but not be a bathroom troll :)

b/f the internet, airlines probably had large reservation departments - also all the toll roads that had toll-booth attendants prior to electronic- tolling - also prior to cell phones which offer free national long distance calling, there were many companies that specialized in long distance calling by offering lower rates

Some of it is a bit scary. Airplanes have the ability to take off, fly & land themselves but I'm not ready to get on one without pilots.

Self driving cars and trucks could displace millions of drivers. McDonald's is phasing out employees as the wages approach $15 an hour and using kiosks instead or robots. I read this was their plan. I read human unemployment could become such a major issue, some were suggesting a universal basic income to be paid to everyone as a basic wage whether employed in a traditional job or not. Some are even talking about taxing the robots. If industry or businesses can replace people with robots and get the same or better numbers, they will do it right away.

One strip club even replaced the dancers with robot dancers. For a day or night. The only way I see strip clubs keeping customers in that case is free beer and food. Actually one club got me to keep returning with free passes and free pizza.

There are very few manual labor or repetitive jobs that won't eventually be replaced by machines.

I think that will ultimately be a good thing. It will lower the cost and increase the quality of goods. It could also reduce the number of hours people have to work in a typical week.

Also, imagine the reduced wear and tear on people's bodies when they transition away from manual labor to more mentally intensive jobs. That combined with a reduced number of workplace injuries will lead to a population that is healthier later in life. (Assuming we don't become more obese due to a more sedentary life)

The problem will be the transition period (which has already started) where we have a large labor force that is only trained in manual labor and therefore competing for a shrinking number of jobs that they are qualified for.

At the laundromat a few doors down the alley from the club, there is a massage chair that gives a massage for $2. I bet they could get at least $5 if they had one that would give happy endings.

The masseur fisting his clients at Massage Envy could probably still hang onto a clientele, though, since the tolerances involved would be much lower for an automated machine fisting session.

What happened to all the Kodak workers? Polaroid? Those from Myspace? How about those that worked for World Book? TV repairmen? This could go on forever, but...

^^^ @ Clubber I think the Kodak workers became OTC girls the Polaroid workers ITC girls, but I don’t know what happened to the TV repairmen. ;)

This has been happening for close to 20 years. It’s not news. However, there will always be a need for human intuition - well beyond what is available via machine learning.

I had always heard that I was going to be replaced by a black box. I never really understood that until the company started promoting more black females.

twentyfive, you really don't want to know what the TV repairmen are doing these days. (:

It seems that companies aren’t building products to last either. Maybe that’s where the jobs are? As there appear to be lots of delivery folks all over the neighborhood!

There might be a new job created here too. Do folks hire a person to sit and guard their delivered packages? There are lots of packages stolen now!

Say in about the last 40 years since the "personal computer" was developed, how many have been employed in that field since then? And in how many industries? And where in the world? Basically just caused by a little bitty item called a micro processor.

Google recently made an AI software (machine learning algorithm) that could create more effective and more efficient AI softwares (machine learning algorithms) than the most advanced AI systems created by human programmers. What the means is Google has made an AI that is better than Google at making AI.

Eventually, all jobs will be automated, because the computers will be better than us at everything. The only thing they won’t be able to do is be a human. They will make music, they will create art, they will create movies, they will produce porn.

They won’t be human.

Be the worker that has to build and maintain the automation equipment.

A universal basic income will become necessary. Human jobs will become more like those in Blade Runner 2049, i.e. some humans will have to be the ones who try to limit the AI.

Don't worry, Dougster and his bro's have a plan.

When Kurzweil's Singularity Occurs, Dougster and his master class will ascend into their high rises, all with male strip clubs on the top floor. Many of them are receiving blood transfusions in order to achieve immortality. Many are also following Kurzweil and planning on cryogenic freezing.

For the rest of us, we will be placed under whip wielding task masters and put to tasks like scrubbing the sidewalk with our tooth brushes.

But this is only an interim step.

SJG

There is dignity in having a job. There will always be jobs available no matter how much automation exists. Care for the elderly. Mentor poor children. With the low prices that result from automation, jobs like this would provide a living wage.

Universal basic income would be bad for the individual and bad for society.

There will always be types of work which need doing. But meeting the needs of those without money and who cannot pay? That requires taxation and spending. Many low wage workers today, live from the money they get from gov't funded caring of the elderly and disabled.

Universal Basic Income is actually cheaper to operate than it is to 'create jobs'.

Thing about Universal Basic Income, if done right, is that it is not welfare as it is not needs tested. It is not paying people not to have other income. Everyone gets it.

But, to work as intended, there must be cost controlled housing and a few other things, otherwise it is just fattening rentiers.

SJG

Computer Programming tuscl.net

Book Publishing tuscl.net

Advice to Wannabe Strippers tuscl.net

It’s Psyco happy hour. Someplace.

I'm a proponent of a universal income for just being human. I also think inflation would wipe out its usefulness almost immediately. Imagine how our society would change if the population did not have to fear starvation or being homeless.

Hard for me to imagine all these blue collar jobs being replaced with tech jobs. There is a large portion of our population that can only do structured work. They deserve dignity if they will be made perpetually unemployed.

The avg household income in America is about 50k. That's not enough to remain out of debt. There is a growing sense of ingrained poverty in the country which, only now, is becoming visible to the masses.

Well, this is why UBI has to be implemented with cost controls on housing and a few other things. Frank Lloyd Wright was describing this in the 1930's.

Otherwise it just fattens rentiers.

The rest of our min wage, disability, and public assistance programs would have to be re-thought, if not eliminated, and the tax code would have to be revised.

You can't make a democracy work when people are motivated by fear of starvation, and you can't make it work when large portions of the population are motivated in their voting by just hatred of the poor, minorities, and immigrants.

SJG

There's a lot of inefficiencies in the labor supply/demand right now. I think some of the Tusclers are pretty good at exploiting it, which is good. That's what you should do in markets, exploit inefficiencies. And command a high salary or high commission. I'm not faulting you guys. Just curious how you do it.

By that I mean, figure out what's in demand, and what is high paying, then you supply your skills to meet that.

I think a lot of the displaced workers, and I feel like I'm in that group, aren't sure exactly what we're supposed to retool, retrain, get-skilled, etc at. Most parents know their kids are supposed to go to college but little thought it played to it beyond that. So there is lots of underemployment in the job market, I'm one of them. I know I'm not being challenged. And we see employer and market complaints of lack of skilled labor. But I'm not sure how to meet that demand.

Because of the underemployment, they way the macro-economics and gov't compute the unemployment rate -- it is total bullshit.

The opportunity is out there is workers and ICs can figure out how to tap it. I call that gap inefficiencies in the labor market but maybe that's not the correct term.

I think 2 parent families with parents who have a clue set better goals and re-discuss those goals periodically with their kids. I think that's one difference. Another aspect is delayed gratification. Yet another is that laser focus and dedication to education is a non-negotiable requirement.

Not sure about universal basic income. I get why it is human and compassionate to offer it. But money for doing nothing is not dignified. Dignified work is rewarding work and challenging work. What is rewarding is different for each person. I don't have any answers, just more questions. I wish my work was challenging, even if the pay was the same. Or if I worked harder, I actually got paid more. Haven't figured out how that is supposed to work. I will.

@SJG .. RE: HOUSING

Absolutely. If you just give more money to us regular folks. Rents and mortgages rise to meet the difference. Part of that might be exploitation in the system. The other part is WE DO IT TO OURSELVES. We get into bidding wars for houses. Leafy communities. Low crime. Good schools. We drive up housing prices. We have good intentions, trying to feel safe and get ahead.

Glad to see someone pointing it out. Thanks.

Actually in this country housing is fairly inexpensive in many places the real problem is more about the distribution of earning power, in places where wages are high there is much competition for housing and other areas that are lacking income opportunities housing is cheap. If I were a young guy starting out I would move to an area where I could create opportunities and build my own wealth. I am speaking from experience I moved to South Florida in the eighties and became part of the construction industry at a time when there was a lot of opportunities in this area. I’d be looking at other areas now if I were seeking opportunities for myself.

Dominic, don't judge yourself by what TUSCLers seem to be doing.

You have to live by your own principles. I know you are a very principled person.

Most on TUSCL are idiotic creeps and braggers.

And you can't live your life by comparing yourself to others.

SJG

About UBI and housing costs. For UBI to work as intended there has to be cost controlled housing, and a few other things cost controlled. Otherwise it would just fatten rentiers.

To make UBI work as intended all of these things need to be addressed, and there has to be review and restructuring on min wage, unemployment benies, disability benies, and the entire tax code, starting with earned income tax credit.

SJG

@SJG most here aren’t idiotic creeps or braggarts that’s you and a few others you are right that you can’t live your live comparing yourself to others but that’s as far as it goes, if the man genuinely want to get ahead several here are providing good advice Unfortunately you are not one of them all you are doing is creating a meta narrative that displays you and you alone if you don’t stop being a negative troll motherfucker I am going to put you back on ignore where you belong.

TwentyFive, you are known to be a successful business operator. And on that I congratulate you.

But about all this 'investing advice', it looks like water soaking was not enough. Go soak your head in a tube of vinegar.

SJG

@twentyfive: said: "Actually in this country housing is fairly inexpensive in many places the real problem is more about the distribution of earning power"

That is kind of what I thought. Though I struggle sometimes with it (mortagage and maintenance/upkeep). I tried to not buy too much house. But when I bought there wasn't anything under 100,000 that wasn't inner city Cleveland. I didn't think any house was worth more than 100K but I couldn't find anything cheaper in 2004, so I paid 123,500 and still owe 103,000. I had a near foreclosure, which reset term back to 30 years in 2013.

Just trying to figure out where I messed up. The house it worth 78,000 or 98,000 depending on who you ask.

College tuition is 10 times what it was 25 years ago, even adjusted for inflation. Back then, the vast majority of students were taking majors that had good job prospects. Many paid for college with summer jobs and part time employment. Now, a high percent of students major in areas where the job prospects are laughable.

So, someone takes on $250,000 of debt to get a gender studies degree. Then, they are shocked, shocked I tell you, that they need to live in their parent’s basement for the next decade while working part time at Starbucks.

There is lots of blame for this insanity. Personally, much of the blame goes to the student loan program which doesn’t question whether the student is getting the type of education that gives them a reasonable chance of repaying the loan. However, colleges are to blame for adding administrators, student life programs, and palatial dorms requiring exhorbitant tuition. Students and their parents make horrendous decisions, thinking that any degree will bring success.

On the other hand, construction and manufacturing firms are desperate to find skilled workers, offering paid, on-the-job training programs that can quickly lead to a nice living wage.

You didn't mess up.

That is just the way it goes. Nation wide $123k is still cheap.

Some areas are experiencing deepening ongoing depression.

Read the Robin and Dominquez book.

The idea that a house is an investment is largely bogus. You are still being driven by herd think.

Read this guy, David Chilton, Wealthy Barber, he goes at great length into house issues. amazon.com

Mark94, College needs to serve far more than just job training. But I agree with you that taking on debt for it is nuts.

In the organization I am building, this problem will be completely solved.

SJG

"It’s like they explain in the gods must be crazy. Everyone will just educate themselves more to keep up, even if it’s just for the sake of liability."

If you're speaking about the South African movie about the bushman trying to return a bottle i don't recall that line but it was a damn funny movie that i haven't watched in years and i need to watch it again. :D

Familiar with the movie. But education serves greater purposes than job training.

Also though, standard colleges are not necessarily the best way to get an ongoing education.

SJG

Dougster and his bro, at it again, WATCH OUT!

yahoo.com

SJG

A) This is a good thing. The more people getting replaced by machines the better. All you need to do is interact with a customer service representative over the phone for a few minutes and you'll be eager to fire them all!

The whole point of capitalism is that if people are left alone to make their own decisions with their own money, then the world will improve over time. And if it continues to improve then eventually we'll get to the point where the machines will produce so much abundance, for free, that people won't have to work at all. The internet, smartphone apps, and 3D printers are some early indications of good things to come. But probably not in our lifetimes.

B) I think the Universal Basic Income is a great idea IF it replaces all other entitlement and welfare programs. Otherwise, it's really bad. That's a big IF. But let's wait and see for now.

C) I totally agree with SJG (!) that college should never be about job training. We're slowly turning colleges into universal government-sponsored trade schools, which is a thorough debasement of the university system and the idea of a classical liberal arts education.

It's only fitting that we're copying the German model once again. The US imitated the German university system several centuries ago, and now we're imitating modern Germany's new emphasis on the skilled and technical trades. But the former system was NEVER supposed to be universal, and the latter system is incompatible with personal development and individualism. My solution: we don't need any more systems! And we definitely don't need higher education OR job training to be paid for by the government.

A) we have long had a huge labor surplus. Marx was explaining this in 1848. But the issue is, how can you build a society which is not based on the 'work ethic'? People have still not accepted this. They still support Social Darwinism, but prefer to call it Libertarianism.

B) UBI probably would replace most other entitlement programs. If it did not, then likely its amount could be reduced. The central thing which distinguishes UBI is that it is not needs tested. So generally it would be better to cut off the other programs, and just provide adequately for needs via UBI.

C) I support Liberal Education, as well as math, science, and critical thinking. Best is if it is life long. And I say that people should getting steered to supervised independent study, instead of lecture schedules, syllabi, and examinations.

And I like the Great Books schools, like St. John's in Annapolis MD and Santa Fe NM. A whole year of twice per week seminars discussing Plato's Apology and Republic.

Mark94 was denouncing Gender Studies. That kind of idea I believe comes from Art Pope and NoCar's Governor.

youtube.com

Universities paid for by the government are not bad, they are good. But they still have their limitations. They can hurt lots of people, and graduating from one is more indicative of socio economic class, then willingness to learn.

We have a local historian who teaches at UC Berkeley, Grey Brechin. He explains that even the public schools contribute to the furthering of economic stratification.

In the organization I am building, everyone will be in life long supervised independent studies, and we will work it so we can give accredited degrees. No extra charge whatsoever for any of this. Often this studying will be integrated with work duties.

We are taught to separate Education, Work, and Play. Better if they can be integrated: amazon.com

John Dewey called for education thru vocations. But this got distorted into education for vocations.

SJG

democracynow.org In response to the plan, the American Civil Liberties Union tweeted, “Today the White House released a hateful proposal that would slash legal immigration to levels not seen since the racial quotas of the 1920s, eliminate legal channels for African immigrants, and spend $25 BIL for a wasteful border wall plus increase in Border Patrol and ICE agents.” Many immigration activists and Democrats have vowed to oppose the plan, with Illinois Democratic Congressmember Luis Gutiérrez tweeting, “It would be far cheaper to erect a 50-foot concrete statue of a middle finger and point it towards Latin America. Both a wall and the statue would be equally offensive and equally ineffective and both would express Trump’s deeply held suspicion of Latinos.”

there will always be the need for bouncers.

^^^^^^^ :) :) :)

SJG

Also BHO, public funding of colleges has limitations. But it also does good. Many people get educated. Making the schools larger creates jobs. Keeping people out of the work force reduces the size of that work force, and so it lessens the need to create jobs for people.

SJG

@san_jose_guy,

Yes, public universities usually work perfectly well. What I meant is that they're immoral - for someone who's a libertarian, like me, it is simply immoral for the government to be paying for the education of adults.

Regardless, public universities often do provide a decent education, sometimes better than many private universities. This is because America's public universities don't suffer from the same built-in short-comings that America's public elementary and secondary schools do. Namely:

• students aren't zoned for a public university based on their zipcodes;

• public universities can usually turn away prospective students who are unprepared for college-level work;

• and you still have to pay tuition or apply for a scholarship or financial aid if you wish to attend.

Taken together, these three things make America's public university system MUCH better than America's public elementary and secondary education system. I went to a public university myself.

The tuition for public universities used to be near zero. This should be restored. It is better for our society that we offer these, and that we get as many people into them as possible. Most people are getting more of an education than they otherwise would.

The biggest expansion of such schools came at the end of WWII with the GI Bill. Most everyone agrees that this was an extremely positive and constructive thing to do. Students were a few years older, so they were better.

But in the org I am building we will have something else of our own, supervised independent study, supplemented by vast libraries, discussion groups and electronic resources, and often integrated with work place projects. It will be life long education, and there is no extra charge or real cost to this.

Though our group funds itself via membership dues and the operation of businesses, we will be promoting Social Democracy for the general public, to the Left of someone like Bernie Sanders.

OT: Are Traditional Colleges and Universities Bad Environments? tuscl.net

"We live in capitalism. Its power seems inescapable. So did the divine right of kings. Any human power can be resisted and changed by human beings. Resistance and change often begin in art, and very often in our art, the art of words." democracynow.org

SJG

Emergency Life Boat Forum, join, save info in emails to yourself testosteronelifeboat.freeforums.net

"Eventually, all jobs will be automated, because the computers will be better than us at everything. The only thing they won’t be able to do is be a human. They will make music, they will create art, they will create movies, they will produce porn.

They won’t be human."

+1

And Social Darwinists will still be promoting their views under the banner of Libertarianism.

SJG