OT: Workers displaced by technology
Lone_Wolf
Arizona
I've read crazy projections that up to 50 percent of workers could be replaced by technology within the next few decades. I always thought of that as BS and highly exaggerated until...
I went to the DMV last week to renew the tags on my car. I expected the usual packed parking lot and hour wait with long lines. Instead, the parking lot was only a quarter full. I walked in expecting the place to be closed but it was open. No lines. Only about a third of the usual workers at the counter. Slow and quiet. The lady at the help desk directed me to a kiosk (kind of like an ATM machine) for the tag renewal. A few intuitive clicks and I was out of there in the fraction of time it usually takes.
The very next day I go the bank to make a deposit. I also needed some checks printed out so I went inside. Inside there was a bank representative directing customers to use an electronic kiosk for their transactions instead of going to a live teller. This was not an ATM it was obviously a direct replacement for the tellers.
Very surreal. Have you seen any dramatic newer examples of workers being replaced by technology? Do you believe the huge projections?
I went to the DMV last week to renew the tags on my car. I expected the usual packed parking lot and hour wait with long lines. Instead, the parking lot was only a quarter full. I walked in expecting the place to be closed but it was open. No lines. Only about a third of the usual workers at the counter. Slow and quiet. The lady at the help desk directed me to a kiosk (kind of like an ATM machine) for the tag renewal. A few intuitive clicks and I was out of there in the fraction of time it usually takes.
The very next day I go the bank to make a deposit. I also needed some checks printed out so I went inside. Inside there was a bank representative directing customers to use an electronic kiosk for their transactions instead of going to a live teller. This was not an ATM it was obviously a direct replacement for the tellers.
Very surreal. Have you seen any dramatic newer examples of workers being replaced by technology? Do you believe the huge projections?
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I think that will ultimately be a good thing. It will lower the cost and increase the quality of goods. It could also reduce the number of hours people have to work in a typical week.
Also, imagine the reduced wear and tear on people's bodies when they transition away from manual labor to more mentally intensive jobs. That combined with a reduced number of workplace injuries will lead to a population that is healthier later in life. (Assuming we don't become more obese due to a more sedentary life)
The problem will be the transition period (which has already started) where we have a large labor force that is only trained in manual labor and therefore competing for a shrinking number of jobs that they are qualified for.
The masseur fisting his clients at Massage Envy could probably still hang onto a clientele, though, since the tolerances involved would be much lower for an automated machine fisting session.
There might be a new job created here too. Do folks hire a person to sit and guard their delivered packages? There are lots of packages stolen now!
Eventually, all jobs will be automated, because the computers will be better than us at everything. The only thing they won’t be able to do is be a human. They will make music, they will create art, they will create movies, they will produce porn.
They won’t be human.
When Kurzweil's Singularity Occurs, Dougster and his master class will ascend into their high rises, all with male strip clubs on the top floor. Many of them are receiving blood transfusions in order to achieve immortality. Many are also following Kurzweil and planning on cryogenic freezing.
For the rest of us, we will be placed under whip wielding task masters and put to tasks like scrubbing the sidewalk with our tooth brushes.
But this is only an interim step.
SJG
Universal basic income would be bad for the individual and bad for society.
Universal Basic Income is actually cheaper to operate than it is to 'create jobs'.
Thing about Universal Basic Income, if done right, is that it is not welfare as it is not needs tested. It is not paying people not to have other income. Everyone gets it.
But, to work as intended, there must be cost controlled housing and a few other things, otherwise it is just fattening rentiers.
SJG
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Hard for me to imagine all these blue collar jobs being replaced with tech jobs. There is a large portion of our population that can only do structured work. They deserve dignity if they will be made perpetually unemployed.
The avg household income in America is about 50k. That's not enough to remain out of debt. There is a growing sense of ingrained poverty in the country which, only now, is becoming visible to the masses.
Otherwise it just fattens rentiers.
The rest of our min wage, disability, and public assistance programs would have to be re-thought, if not eliminated, and the tax code would have to be revised.
You can't make a democracy work when people are motivated by fear of starvation, and you can't make it work when large portions of the population are motivated in their voting by just hatred of the poor, minorities, and immigrants.
SJG
By that I mean, figure out what's in demand, and what is high paying, then you supply your skills to meet that.
I think a lot of the displaced workers, and I feel like I'm in that group, aren't sure exactly what we're supposed to retool, retrain, get-skilled, etc at. Most parents know their kids are supposed to go to college but little thought it played to it beyond that. So there is lots of underemployment in the job market, I'm one of them. I know I'm not being challenged. And we see employer and market complaints of lack of skilled labor. But I'm not sure how to meet that demand.
Because of the underemployment, they way the macro-economics and gov't compute the unemployment rate -- it is total bullshit.
The opportunity is out there is workers and ICs can figure out how to tap it. I call that gap inefficiencies in the labor market but maybe that's not the correct term.
I think 2 parent families with parents who have a clue set better goals and re-discuss those goals periodically with their kids. I think that's one difference. Another aspect is delayed gratification. Yet another is that laser focus and dedication to education is a non-negotiable requirement.
Not sure about universal basic income. I get why it is human and compassionate to offer it. But money for doing nothing is not dignified. Dignified work is rewarding work and challenging work. What is rewarding is different for each person. I don't have any answers, just more questions. I wish my work was challenging, even if the pay was the same. Or if I worked harder, I actually got paid more. Haven't figured out how that is supposed to work. I will.
@SJG .. RE: HOUSING
Absolutely. If you just give more money to us regular folks. Rents and mortgages rise to meet the difference. Part of that might be exploitation in the system. The other part is WE DO IT TO OURSELVES. We get into bidding wars for houses. Leafy communities. Low crime. Good schools. We drive up housing prices. We have good intentions, trying to feel safe and get ahead.
Glad to see someone pointing it out. Thanks.
You have to live by your own principles. I know you are a very principled person.
Most on TUSCL are idiotic creeps and braggers.
And you can't live your life by comparing yourself to others.
SJG
To make UBI work as intended all of these things need to be addressed, and there has to be review and restructuring on min wage, unemployment benies, disability benies, and the entire tax code, starting with earned income tax credit.
SJG
Unfortunately you are not one of them all you are doing is creating a meta narrative that displays you and you alone if you don’t stop being a negative troll motherfucker I am going to put you back on ignore where you belong.
But about all this 'investing advice', it looks like water soaking was not enough. Go soak your head in a tube of vinegar.
SJG
That is kind of what I thought. Though I struggle sometimes with it (mortagage and maintenance/upkeep). I tried to not buy too much house. But when I bought there wasn't anything under 100,000 that wasn't inner city Cleveland. I didn't think any house was worth more than 100K but I couldn't find anything cheaper in 2004, so I paid 123,500 and still owe 103,000. I had a near foreclosure, which reset term back to 30 years in 2013.
Just trying to figure out where I messed up. The house it worth 78,000 or 98,000 depending on who you ask.
So, someone takes on $250,000 of debt to get a gender studies degree. Then, they are shocked, shocked I tell you, that they need to live in their parent’s basement for the next decade while working part time at Starbucks.
There is lots of blame for this insanity. Personally, much of the blame goes to the student loan program which doesn’t question whether the student is getting the type of education that gives them a reasonable chance of repaying the loan. However, colleges are to blame for adding administrators, student life programs, and palatial dorms requiring exhorbitant tuition. Students and their parents make horrendous decisions, thinking that any degree will bring success.
On the other hand, construction and manufacturing firms are desperate to find skilled workers, offering paid, on-the-job training programs that can quickly lead to a nice living wage.
That is just the way it goes. Nation wide $123k is still cheap.
Some areas are experiencing deepening ongoing depression.
Read the Robin and Dominquez book.
The idea that a house is an investment is largely bogus. You are still being driven by herd think.
Read this guy, David Chilton, Wealthy Barber, he goes at great length into house issues.
https://www.amazon.com/Wealthy-Barber-Up…
In the organization I am building, this problem will be completely solved.
SJG
If you're speaking about the South African movie about the bushman trying to return a bottle i don't recall that line but it was a damn funny movie that i haven't watched in years and i need to watch it again. :D
Also though, standard colleges are not necessarily the best way to get an ongoing education.
SJG
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tech-…
SJG
The whole point of capitalism is that if people are left alone to make their own decisions with their own money, then the world will improve over time. And if it continues to improve then eventually we'll get to the point where the machines will produce so much abundance, for free, that people won't have to work at all. The internet, smartphone apps, and 3D printers are some early indications of good things to come. But probably not in our lifetimes.
B) I think the Universal Basic Income is a great idea IF it replaces all other entitlement and welfare programs. Otherwise, it's really bad. That's a big IF. But let's wait and see for now.
C) I totally agree with SJG (!) that college should never be about job training. We're slowly turning colleges into universal government-sponsored trade schools, which is a thorough debasement of the university system and the idea of a classical liberal arts education.
It's only fitting that we're copying the German model once again. The US imitated the German university system several centuries ago, and now we're imitating modern Germany's new emphasis on the skilled and technical trades. But the former system was NEVER supposed to be universal, and the latter system is incompatible with personal development and individualism. My solution: we don't need any more systems! And we definitely don't need higher education OR job training to be paid for by the government.
B) UBI probably would replace most other entitlement programs. If it did not, then likely its amount could be reduced. The central thing which distinguishes UBI is that it is not needs tested. So generally it would be better to cut off the other programs, and just provide adequately for needs via UBI.
C) I support Liberal Education, as well as math, science, and critical thinking. Best is if it is life long. And I say that people should getting steered to supervised independent study, instead of lecture schedules, syllabi, and examinations.
And I like the Great Books schools, like St. John's in Annapolis MD and Santa Fe NM. A whole year of twice per week seminars discussing Plato's Apology and Republic.
Mark94 was denouncing Gender Studies. That kind of idea I believe comes from Art Pope and NoCar's Governor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4ROtC_p…
Universities paid for by the government are not bad, they are good. But they still have their limitations. They can hurt lots of people, and graduating from one is more indicative of socio economic class, then willingness to learn.
We have a local historian who teaches at UC Berkeley, Grey Brechin. He explains that even the public schools contribute to the furthering of economic stratification.
In the organization I am building, everyone will be in life long supervised independent studies, and we will work it so we can give accredited degrees. No extra charge whatsoever for any of this. Often this studying will be integrated with work duties.
We are taught to separate Education, Work, and Play. Better if they can be integrated:
https://www.amazon.com/Three-Boxes-Life-…
John Dewey called for education thru vocations. But this got distorted into education for vocations.
SJG
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In response to the plan, the American Civil Liberties Union tweeted, “Today the White House released a hateful proposal that would slash legal immigration to levels not seen since the racial quotas of the 1920s, eliminate legal channels for African immigrants, and spend $25 BIL for a wasteful border wall plus increase in Border Patrol and ICE agents.” Many immigration activists and Democrats have vowed to oppose the plan, with Illinois Democratic Congressmember Luis Gutiérrez tweeting, “It would be far cheaper to erect a 50-foot concrete statue of a middle finger and point it towards Latin America. Both a wall and the statue would be equally offensive and equally ineffective and both would express Trump’s deeply held suspicion of Latinos.”
SJG
SJG
Yes, public universities usually work perfectly well. What I meant is that they're immoral - for someone who's a libertarian, like me, it is simply immoral for the government to be paying for the education of adults.
Regardless, public universities often do provide a decent education, sometimes better than many private universities. This is because America's public universities don't suffer from the same built-in short-comings that America's public elementary and secondary schools do. Namely:
- students aren't zoned for a public university based on their zipcodes;
- public universities can usually turn away prospective students who are unprepared for college-level work;
- and you still have to pay tuition or apply for a scholarship or financial aid if you wish to attend.
Taken together, these three things make America's public university system MUCH better than America's public elementary and secondary education system. I went to a public university myself.
The biggest expansion of such schools came at the end of WWII with the GI Bill. Most everyone agrees that this was an extremely positive and constructive thing to do. Students were a few years older, so they were better.
But in the org I am building we will have something else of our own, supervised independent study, supplemented by vast libraries, discussion groups and electronic resources, and often integrated with work place projects. It will be life long education, and there is no extra charge or real cost to this.
Though our group funds itself via membership dues and the operation of businesses, we will be promoting Social Democracy for the general public, to the Left of someone like Bernie Sanders.
OT: Are Traditional Colleges and Universities Bad Environments?
https://www.tuscl.net/?page=post&id=5066…
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SJG
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They won’t be human."
+1
SJG