There seems to have been a divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum/LiteCoin. Why do you think this is? Was there some event that would cause one to go up and the others to stay flat/down? Or are people just selling other cryptocurrencies to pay for Bitcoin at this point?
Main reason is that CME announced BTC futures by the end of the year. That a vehicle for institutions and especially trader to get in and out easily. It will also allow hedging by merchant who want to accept bitcoin but are worried about price fluctuation.
I think so. They have technical advantages over BTC which is showing its age. BTC has to pull off the lightning network to make it capable of doing payments on a grand scale. LTC has latched onto lightning network at all. ETH is also has to pull off quit a technical feat in making smart contract secure. Although I saw a tweet this morning about a program language for zero-knowledge proofs.
BTC does have name recognition and history, however, which is very important for mass adoption.
Even if they don't LTC and ETH should both benefit long term if there is mass BTC adoption. Despite being down a bit today.
Just checked and, as of 5:50 AM on the East Coast, Bitcoin is up about 10% while LiteCoin and Ethereum are both down about 8%. This is a strange market. I'm not sure I understand what's driving it. There must have been some more news. If these two ever retest their lows from mid-September I might consider dipping a toe in. I sincerely doubt that we will see the more attractive prices from mid-July again any time soon. Regardless, this is a bubble. That's not a bad thing. You can make a fortune on a bubble, as long as you know when to GTFO.
Unfortunately I've only been trading it on GDAX recently, not HODLing. Ugghhh... the RSI of the price chart (6 hr candlesticks) is basically at an all time high. I am praying for a pull back so that I can buy back in with good conscience.
I think LTC and ETH will be fine. Might want to pick some up today at these prices. ETH, in particular, has been very quiet for a long time. Just a little financial advice from Dougster to TUSCL.
I will admit at this point even if there is a big correction in bitcoin, you'll survive with excellent profits much to my surprise.
I think the big banks are pretending it doesn't bother them by ignoring it now. I'm in the camp where it's not an investment but a political movement. Good for those who invested.
I saw an article today about Amazon registering domains related to Ethereum. Being a "platform", it sounds a lot more tailored to the interests of megacorps, which sounds like it would end up killing privacy benefits associated with block chain. It reminds me of back in the day how Linux was perceived as keep you safe from the megacorps, but then Google started their stuff on top of it and tracks you as much as they want to.
[view link]
Another interesting one was about a hard fork coming up for Bitcoin that is supposed to change how mining works.
The situation reminds me of back when anything with Linux in its name, like 1999-2001 started taking off in the market because people were treating every company's Linux release like it could end up valued like Microsoft. Which didn't make any sense, because the barrier to entry to releasing your own Linux distribution is so low.
e.g., [view link]
"About 270 separate crypto-cash start-ups have sought funds via ICOs in 2017, said the New York Times. In total, the ICOs have raised more than $3bn (£2.27bn), it said."
Then there is the hard fork where it's being reported that newbie users could lose Bitcoin:
[view link]
"The implications for this lie in the fact that users with coins on the original BTC Blockchain risk losing them if Breadwallet opts for SegWit2x transaction support.
"Against a lack of clear information geared towards non-technical users, the issue of a further hard fork could result in their alienation."
With that many others waiting in the wings, I wonder how a few loud whiners (perhaps supported by Bezos to push people to Ethereum) could impact future Bitcoin valuations.
The most interesting stories, though, were WikiLeaks reaping exponentially more funds as a result of having to resort to Bitcoin after their credit card processing was cut off by government pressure.
[view link]
Also, the one about people in Venezuela mining Bitcoin as the only way to have some meaningful currency... and busted by the government for it the same way people get busted for using a bunch of power to grow weed:
[view link]
Dougster, I have acquired knowledge and ability, developed my talents. I don't need to engage in glorified gambling.
SJG
Republicans suddenly fear disastrous 2018
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There’s a chart being passed around showing how various bubbles played out. It doesn’t prove anything about bitcoin since we don’t know how that will play out. However, it gives some perspective and a tool for debate. I hope my link works.
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I could swear The Economist has been reading what I posted about Bitcoin here:
What is the appeal of Bitcoin? There are really three strands; the limited nature of supply (new coins can only be created through complex calculations, and the total is limited to 21m); fears about the long-term value of fiat currencies in an era of quantitative easing; and the appeal of anonymity. The last factor makes Bitcoin appealing to criminals (although this is even more true of cash) creating this ingenious valuation method for the currency of around $570.
These three factors explain why there is some demand for Bitcoin but not the recent surge. The supply details have if anything deteriorated (rival cryptocurrencies are emerging); the criminal community hasn't suddenly risen in size; and there is no sign of general inflation. A possible explanation is the belief that blockchain, the technology that underlines Bitcoin, will be used across the finance industry. But you can create blockchains without having anything to do with Bitcoin; the success of the two aren't inextricably linked.
A much more plausible reason for the demand for Bitcoin is that the price is going up rapidly (see chart). As Charles Kindleberger, a historian of bubbles, wrote
There is nothing so disturbing to one's wellbeing and judgment as to see a friend get rich
People are not buying Bitcoin because they intend to use it in their daily lives. Currencies need to have a steady price if they are to be a medium of exchange. Buyers do not want to exchange a token that might jump sharply in price the next day; sellers do not want to receive a token that might plunge in price. As Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland of CME wrote
Wouldn’t you have regretted paying 20 Bitcoins for a $40,000 car in June 2017 only to see the same 20 Bitcoins valued at nearly $100,000 by October of the same year?
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Good points @ppwh if you follow that logic to its conclusion the value will keep increasing as the supply shrinks until something else come along its tulips all over again. Not necessarily my opinion just following the logic from your post, it is one plausible scenario.
I think the real question is how long it will take an alternate currency to reach more widespread/mainstream use (e.g., Ethereum) to be used more as a currency than an investment strategy. Now that Bitcoin's SegWit2x hard fork was just canceled and Ethereum is talking about one of their own, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Well there's "more" every day. Some signs up to accept crypto-currency payments. Depends what penetration level you are talking about. 2018 should be a good year for us.
Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are speculative but I heard on CNBC something that you might want to allocate 2% of your portfolio towards. I'm like warren buffet in that I haven't invested in it because I don't know enough about it. Crypto currencies might hit the big time in a few years if our regular currency is in shambles due to too much debt and not enough revenue. I'm planning on studying the situation if I have time to try to figure out what to do if our nation isn't screwed to death in a few years. Hopefully we have that long. If we don't I expect Trump to start a war or wars to distract everyone or try to egg someone else to attack us first. Then cyrpto currencies will surge more. If you could use it more like currency and it was better regulated, it would be safer to invest in it. I ve heard pros and cons. In my opinion, one form of cyrpto currency could get hacked, outlawed, banned, or lost and all your investment wiped out if you own it. I don't know if the safeguards are in place. The Internet dot com bubble seemed similar before the crash. Some currencies will likely continue to make millionaires. I just don't know which.
I see one billionaire Mark Cuban has no problem suggesting up to 10% speculating in cyrpto currencies but says you have to be prepared to lose it all like artwork or baseball cards.
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FYI I think Mark Cuban would like to run for president against Trump in 2020 but his wife and kids may be against it. I have no idea what his policies would be.
I think the scary element or scary elephant in the room as far as actual tax cuts is that our country is in the danger zone of too much debt and liabilities approaching levels like after WW2 and worse than most other countries. Debt and liabilities to GDP is horrible and it won't be acceptable to everyone getting government funds via social security, Medicare, Medicaid, and everything else to simply cut out 20% or more when shtf situation pops up. Republicans think there current approach will increase growth but it will likely cause a big stock sell off next year when implemented so that everyone can get better tax losses next year. Just something I read. I also read no interest rate increase in December because the Feds criteria has not been met. Some number not improving enough like core inflation.or something. We will see.
I saw an article yesterday that the most recent run-up had been due to speculators expecting the hard fork to yield two Bitcoins for everyone they bought. Then again, I read another one that said it gone up after the hard fork being called off showed that Bitcoin showed its resistance to a 51% attack. Looks like it has been down a bit the past couple of days, though: [view link]
Anyway, my guess for which currency will eventually be successful will be one that hasn't already been used primarily for speculation with its cost already run-up. Whatever that one turns out to be probably won't yield much in the way of returns just for holding it, though.
Bitcoin Skeptics as price triples: Yeah, just because it going up doesn't mean we are wrong.
Bitcoin Skeptics on a day with a 10% correction after a tripling: Look we are right!
Blockchain! Which company? ConSensys!
That is my call for a 10 year rise! Yeah, Dougster I know your thinking that we won't even know each other for that long so it's an empty no threat call to say that opposing the currency. It's still my macro call.
I've been looking more at the coins than any stocks so far. But maybe you have a good idea.
Agree blockchain should have a 10 year rally. Around that time quantum computers and machines able to pass Turing tests should be getting close.
Great time to be alive!
Another thought, which other cryptos are worth looking into? Supposedly if the brand Bitcoin is overbought, maybe another brand can be just as good or better.
With little options available it shouldn't be hard to pin point another avenue. Ether? Sorry I'm just learning about different selections, and I still believe after this most recent political shake out is over, this will be a future once in a lifetime opportunity. Crypto or blockchain, both are revolutionary, and I appreciate this discussion board for enlightenment.
I will wait for a while before investing into crypto when the shakeout settles. Long term is exciting, so a possible dollar cost a averaging strategy.
What's this shakeout you are talking about? Anyone who has held Bitcoin for even a few months ain't gettin' shakeout by no 10% in a day correction.
I have to keep my number #1 pick secret for anonymity sake since I intend to be working on it myself in 2018.
Think I mentioned ZEC and ETH as good picks in another thread.
Also disagree that Bitcoin is overbought/correcting. Bitcoin has name recognition, a good infrastructure already, and a large dev team. Also being on a futures exchange will be huge. I'll keep in my list of top picks for 2018. But not my #1 pick.
The daily postings about crypto currencies seems like someone crossing a frozen lake and yelling “ it’s fine “ with every step. If they were confidant, they’d simply cross the lake.
It also seems a bit like penny stocks where a group of people aggressively market the stock without many details of the company other than “ it can only go up”. Then, the stock suddenly becomes worthless and no one has an explanation.
Look, crypto currency might turn out to be the most brilliant investment in history. If so, good for you guys. I’m skeptical, but maybe that’s just part of being old. We’ve been fooled too many times to believe in miracle investments.
It's all about choice and there's nothing wrong about having options when investing. It's been stated before, this isn't for everyone. In fact it's probably fir only a few at this point in time.
Even SJG will be forced to get on board if he lives long enough, being the internet tough guy that he is.
"Shakeout" as the US government is monitoring and China has deemed crypto currency dead. All political factions due to keep cryptos from competing.
Like I said, the biggest risk is political to the powers of crypto. What agency is backing the currency? A handful of tech geeks? Probably as it starts but then momentum will need to be gained for an outright support by recruiting outside support, almost aka coup de tat, silently from within surprising the political powers.
I think Dougster you even stated some people like bitcoin for the political movement it supports. Cant say I disagree, but like when a parent has a boy, who wants to start the trend of not circumcising them? It has no proven benefit and may even be a hindrance to overall satisfaction, but people do it to their sons because they don't want them to feel they're an outcast. No analogy is perfect, but I've never had a woman complain about me being circumsized.
Meanwhile, Dash just got an upgrade -
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Dash’s payment network just doubled its transaction rate and significantly reduced its fees. Regular transactions on the highly anonymous Dash network now cost less than one cent; Dash’s special InstandSend transactions, which are executed in less than two seconds, now cost a mere 2.8 cents. To put that in perspective, the United States Federal Reserve reported in 2015 that the average debit card transaction costs roughly twenty-eight cents, a number that increases along with the transaction amount.
The upgrade also affects the speed and volume of transactions, with Dash now boasting it can handle 48 per second while Bitcoin remains stuck at seven. That number is nowhere the average 2,000 that Visa gets or the 1,500 that blockchain firm Ripple boasts, but it still means a capacity for over four million transactions a day — not bad for a technology still in its infancy.
And the Dash development team appears hyper-focused on making the currency easy for everyday use more than getting rich through day trading. Ryan Taylor, CEO of Dash Core, specifically cited unglamorous, “low value” products to show the benefits of the upgrade in a statement announcing the new code.
“High transaction fees affect both consumers and merchants looking to spend the incoming funds,” Taylor said. “The users of several other networks have experienced firsthand the impact that high fees can have on their daily lives, as many low value transactions such as pre-paid phone top-ups or gift card purchases are priced out of the market.”
He concluded with a jab at BTC: “Dash is silently becoming the network Bitcoin once promised to be.”
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Also, it is being reported that mining a Bitcoin is taking the equivalent amount of energy to power a house for a week:
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Dash looks the most legit to me so far, given the Bitcoin is reportedly priced out of the market for micropayments and that the IP records in ledgers reduce its level of anonymity. Ripple sounds like it doesn't really count since it's for transfers between banks.
@Meat72: if governments try to crackdown on Bitcoin (and in these threads when I say "Bitcoin" I am usually just using it as short hand for crypto-currencies in general) they will only make it stronger. The activity can all be decentralized and hidden using hidden services on networks like and I2P. There is no one single failure point. So the rise is inevitable.
Right now there has not been that much work going on regarding decentralization but it is geared to pick up. If governments cracked down it would just accelerate that in response.
IMO, DASH purposely wants to suck for privacy so there is no government backlash to it going mainstream.
Check out ETH and zk-snarks for a better solution.
I was going based on this: [view link]
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Mass media regularly claim that bitcoin is anonymous. However, that is actually incorrect, as all transactions can be publicly viewed on the bitcoin blockchain and each transaction is linked to a bitcoin wallet address. While bitcoin wallet addresses do not contain personal information of the wallet owner, various analysis methods have been created that allow wallet addresses to be linked to IP addresses to de-anonymize bitcoin holders and their transactions.
For this reason, anonymous digital currencies, such as DASH, have gained popularity as digital currency users are increasingly valuing privacy when making financial transactions. DASH not only allows users to transact anonymously, it also allows users to make instant transactions with lower transaction fees than bitcoin. These three features combined have been the key drivers behind DASH’s increase in popularity and market value.
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I have mixed feelings about anything Bezos would push. It could make it a de facto standard, but if he's interested in it, it suggests that it is compromised or that compromising would be phase 2.
The thing is, crypto currencies are either a trading/investment vehicle or they are a method of payment. They can't really be both. For example, even if the Euro were to rise in price as quickly as Bitcoin did, you would still have to exchange it for dollars in order to buy something in America, because the Euro isn't an acceptable method of payment here in the States. As ppwh and The Economist magazine have pointed out, the price of these things has just been unstable. Even if they went straight up in value, with no downside moves, that would still be unstable. It speaks to a level of dollar weakness that doesn't comport with reality. Yes, Core CPI doesn't show the real inflation level, I get that. But for Bitcoin's rapid price increase over the last few years to make any sense, we would have to be seeing massive consumer price inflation and across-the-board fiat currency weakness, which just doesn't seem to be happening. And of course, it's the instability itself that makes these things such attractive trading vehicles to begin with.
So of course it's a bubble. Cryptos are really only semi-useful as a payments system, at best. But as I've said, you can get very rich speculating on a bubble if you're lucky and skillful.
From a political standpoint, I'm a true believer. Unless we do something drastic on the budget front we are just going to continue to see slow but steady currency erosion, decade by decade, and maybe even something worse one day, who knows? I personally support a gold standard and an end to central banking. But since we're never going to have that ever again, I suppose crypto currencies will have to do. Notably, several people here have expressed concerns that it's unregulated... well, that's the whole point! If it were regulated, it would be little more than PayPal. Just another place for stashing dollars.
From a practical standpoint, the value would have to substantially stabilize to become useful as a payments system. And then few people would want to trade it. It would be about as boring as the yen.
And from an investment standpoint, if you've got a set of nuts, step up to the plate and take a swing, I guess. Personally, my CF keeps my nuts in a jar at her apartment, so I still don't know if this is for me.
@mark94: Huh? I see 11 comments from yesterday? Is this your latest attempt to prove you are "right"? "Look only 11 comments yesterday! Told you it was all a bubble!"
I guess @mark94 has some pretty bullet-proof can't be proven wrong reasoning:
a) if people are talking alot about Bitcoin alot it shows they aren't confident. Therefore it's all a bubble.
b) if people aren't talking alot about Bitcoin (only 11 posts yesterday) it shows they aren't confident. Therefore it's all a bubble.
I think of the cryptocurrencies more like art. The value is the provenance rather than the intrinsic value of the work. E.g., white on white for $15 million. As long as people are investing in it, it has resale value. Should popularity wane for some reason, though, it doesn't have the same "legal for all debts public and private" force as a national currency.
The Silicon Valley tech richboys are reportedly not investing in art:
[view link]
Or,
3) if the value of an asset I own drops nearly 30% in a week, I wouldn’t declare myself the world’s smartest investor.
It might bounce back, or it might tank. I don’t know and neither do you. But, pounding your chest about your genius seems a little premature.
I like the premise of crypto. Not sure if it can be politically accepted as it is diametrically opposed to the powers that be, but that's the lure for me.
@mark94: I don't think you follow it too closely, so let me help you out. Bitcoin split recently meaning that BTC owners got BCH (Bitcoin Cash) *for free*. If you look at the sum of those, it was hardly changed over the weekend. So the 30% correction was actually nothing, unless people trade away their free coin, in which case, kind of hard to feel sorry for them.
And, I never said I was the world's smartest, but I've certainly done a better job on Bitcoin then you have.
But let me ask you this? Is there anything that could happen to the price of Bitcoin to prove you wrong? Or are you just going to be one of these guys who is going to go on for years how it's a bubble that hasn't popped yet so you aren't wrong, but it will some day.
Finally I've given plenty of recommendations for coins besides BTC: ETH, ZEC, and DASH. All of which did very well this weekend.
Final thing, @mark94: I've said plenty of times that if people can't stomach a 20-30% drop in a day (let alone a week) on a crypto-currency then they just shouldn't be involved in the space at all. You might say you don't know if Bitcoin will bounce back. Okay, fine. I, OTOH, know that it will.
Now instead of just uttering a bunch of useless truism like you always do "it might go up. it might go down. it might stay flat" Why not stick your neck out a little and say something that is something more than a tautology? Or would you rather stick to zero content phrases which can't be proven wrong or right?
I saw global poker advertised on Facebook. After checking with South Carolina laws, I see I can't even legally play a game of poker among family and friends in the entire state. Stupid lawmakers outlawed every game involving dice or luck. First enacted over 200 years ago and still enforced as recently as a few years ago when several people were arrested for playing poker at someone's house. However I can invest my entire life savings in Bitcoin or the stock market and lose it all if I do something stupid and it's all based on predicting the future but I can't legally play a game at home based more on skill than a prediction or probability. Our laws are messed up.
If it were up to me, the US economy would be going gangbusters with easier access to cyrpto currencies with their use acceptable forms of payment in more places, poker online and offline would be legal everywhere. Prostitution would be legal everywhere except inside churches. I'd also outlaw gambling inside churches. All these stupid puritanical laws should apply to churches, not the general public.
I've probably been breaking the law most of my life and didn't even know it. Even a game of Yahtzee might be illegal in South Carolina. However it is ok if I put my life savings in Bitcoin. Perfectly legal. Maybe not wise but not illegal.
We are a country of lawbreakers who haven't been caught. Of course this country does put more people in jail than most other countries.
As far as cyrpto currencies what do you guys think are the most promising? Only Bitcoin or Bitcoin cash or several other cheaper penny like stock picks? What do you use to buy? Coin base?
Coinbase has an exchange called GDAX which is where the money I put in starts off. Bittrex is my preferred exchange but you can't wire in USD yet. Once you can, I'll probably start the money there instead of GDAX.
I've commented above on some of my favorites: ETH, ZEC, DASH, BTC. Like I say have to leave out my #1 pick since I intend to work with them starting next year.
Whether BTC continues to dominate will depend on whether they can implement the lightning network: Which is very complex system. ETH's success depends on somewhat on increasing security, although the market just seems to shake off any hacks that happen. Again very complex to get everything secure.
As for very small coins/Nexus is something I'm starting to have a look at which is looking promising. Haven't pulled the trigger on buying any yet though.
How about everybody else?
I don’t like how there are so many. IMO crypto is useful partly because it’s limited supply, unlike fiat, so the fact that there are so many totally defeats that characteristic. If I could have it my way, all other cryptos would go to 0 and Bitcoin would continue to rise, and continue to be developed.
Ah, but competition seems to speed innovation. I think, in the end, it be sort of like the startup up seen. Many will enter the race, but you'll only get a number of Google/Apple/Facebooks out of it in the end. (Despite @SJG's claim that anyone can get rich: just got to start your own startup and it's lower risk, higher reward than working for the man.)
Knock-knock-knocking on $8000's door. And that's not even including the free BitCoin Cash token Bitcoin HODLERs would have got for free: worth about another $1G.
@mark94: remember when you said you didn't know if Bitcoin would come back after last weekend and I said that I did know it would. LOL!
I read the big increases were not going to be in Bitcoin since that is already getting mass adoption but in smaller cyrpto currencies using the Etherum block chain. I didn't want to pay to subscribe to something though. Any tips on alternatives? Supposed you stay away from the early adopters and find the ones in the early mass adoption stage. Bitcoin is already late in the mass adoption stage I read. It will still have good gains but it won't make you a millionaire. So what is everyone else buying?
Bitcoin has not gone through mass adoption. When your mother, and your grandmother, pay for their next vehicles using Bitcoin, that’s when it has had mass adoption.
I think the mass adoption the speaker referred to must have been among those already using digital currencies.
What exchanges are you guys using and are you trading or just buy and hold?
Which coins or currencies? Anyone buying Dash? I read I may be able to get Steem for free so I'm getting more interested. I also read none are backed by a government and a government could develop a currency and outlaw others making it risky so plan to use pocket change only. Sort of like penny stocks. However I want to learn first.
@Dougster,
The thing is, you are right about bitcoin... but so is @mark94, if you think about it. The question is not merely whether you believe it will go up or down. You believed it would go up, while he stated that he had no way of knowing which direction it would move in the near future. But there's more. Yes, bitcoin went up impressively, and I'm sure you made a lot of money. At first glance, it appears that it really outperformed the stock market and all major fiat currencies. So far so good. But you also have to factor in the risk-adjusted rate of return. Are the extra returns worth the added risk? As Rick999 said, bitcoin could be hacked. Or your individual account could be hacked. Or it could be subject to arbitrary and sudden government action, causing it to disappear overnight. In any event, you could lose all of your money with no real recourse. By contrast, if you bought an ETF that mirrors the broad-based stock market, and then the stock market somehow disappeared tomorrow, you wouldn't have to worry about money ever again... because this would mean that civillization was coming to an end.
So you really have to calculate your risk-adjusted rate of return. I don't know how to do that. And really, all risk (other than inflation risk and interest rate risk) is subjective, anyway. Your appetite for risk may be high, other's may be low. It's as simple as that.
As it happens, I agree with you on cryptocurrencies. I was mulling over bitcoin several years ago, around 2013 and 2014, but I didn't pull the trigger because it seemed to risky. Obviously, I really regret that.
Dougster, I understand 'markets' just as well as you do. Lets talk about the California Lottery, or Horse Racing, or Roulette Wheels. People win, but people also lose.
SJG
No, @SJG I do it professionally and understand markets much better than you (or anyone else I am aware of on this board for that matter). Proof: you are so clueless that you have called the stock market a zero or negative sum game. Also if you look at our track records at calling the market I have been dancing circles around you for years.
@Burlington: What do you mean by "if Bitcoin is hacked"? Hacking the cryptography (good luck!)? Hacking exchanges.
And I agree that "mark94" was "right" but only because he took a tautological true possession such that no what happened he would be right. He said "it might go up, it might go down, it might stay the same". Have the balls to make a call on the actual direction, time and time again, and being right again and again, is for more impressive then taking a weaselly little vacuous position like @mark94. But any ways, growth in the balance of my crypto-currency account is it's own reward. I've watched for years as TUSCLers will be wrong over and over and try and find ways to refuse to admit it.
I am interested in cyrpto currencies. I just want to learn more before risking anything. I read a story about one guy buying a pizza several years ago with several thousand bit coins. Probably kicking himself years later that he spent what is now worth several million on a pizza because it seemed cool at the time to buy a pizza with bit coin.
If you are going to play the long shot you are in situation where you *will* probably lose it all. I think the field will really start to narrow starting next year. But if you do pick the right one you are probably look at at least 10x fold return on it. My advice would be to really do your homework: no the subject matter inside and get to know the people involved. Really get to know them. Not just the public faces they put on. Most important, I would say, would be to watch how they handle stressful and difficult situations. That will reveal their true character.
All investments are unknowable and involve a degree of risk. At least stocks have a long history, a regulatory framework, and mechanisms for reducing risk. Bitcoin is the Wild West. Anything can happen. I’m not denying that an early investor could become a bazillionairre. But, there are a lot of people acting like it can only go up. In the history of the world, such groupthink always ends badly for anyone who rides the investment to the end. Hubris comes before the fall.
You want me to declare what direction Bitcoin will go. That’s like asking me to prove my intelligence by declaring red or black on a roulette spin. Real wisdom starts by recognizing what is unknowable.
In any case, @mark94's post isn't even self-consistent. At the end he says it's unknowable the future direction of the price, but then early he says:
"In the history of the world, such groupthink always ends badly for anyone who rides the investment to the end. Hubris comes before the fall."
implying he knows it's a bubble.
@mark94 reminds me a bit of LoneSheep on her. Make vacuous statements to seem profound. Try to cover all your bases by making contradictory claims so you'll be right on one of them, and hope nobody notices this contradictions and weaselly behavior.
Dougster except for currency devaluation, the stock market is a zero sum gain.
Oh I forgot, you guys still seem to be able to con more mid level wage earners into getting into it. This still makes it go up, for now.
You go along with the Supply Side voodoo, but there is still only so much consumption. Much of the population is living paycheck to paycheck, or even worse.
You were saying that the Boom of 2015 was going to life all boats, and so there would not be so many young women available for whoring in your strip clubs. That was obviously just you trying to play people for stupid.
Our nation gets more and more fatalistic each day. Bit Coin is an example of that, and also a cause of it.
Bit coin, yeah right.
Sure, the banking system generally improves and so the "velocity of money" tends to increase. Making money by drawing people into the credit card system? Into the stock market and IRA funds, into mutual funds, into indexed funds. All just further financialization, paid for by government deficit spending.
Who wants to start a new Ponzi scheme?
How about I start to circulate my own currency, SJG's Money.
How do you outlaw belief in Luck or Fate? You can't, it would be like trying to outlaw gambling, or outlawing religion. No way to do it. Trying only makes it worse.
How about payday lending? Tax refund lending?
You're just peddling scams and predatory schemes. Sure, some people get money, they get what other people loose. And our whole society is getting more and more that way.
Used to be we could use Keynesianism to target full employment. And it worked for the most part very well. But as the decades have gone on we need to be giving up on full employment, too environmentally costly. To many deeper social problems caused by long term economic inequality.
Democracy can never work when people are essentially voting against the well being of poor people.
Will the center hold?
If it doesn't, I'll be the one passing out the assault rifles.
SJG
Joni Mitchell - Amelia (Live 1979)
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Joseph Kennedy, JFK’s dad, made his money on bootlegging. He then invested his money in the stock market during the 1920s. One day he was getting a shoe shine and the shoe shine boy bragged about how well he was doing in the stock market. Kennedy realized that was a sign the market had reached the end of a bubble, if even shoe shine boys saw it as a sure thing. Kennedy cashed in all his stock just before the crash.
A very interesting point Mark94. I had known the basic Joe Kennedy bio, but not the part about the shoe shine boy. It makes sense. The dotcom bubble blew up about the time everybody know all the names of the issues.
I respect that fact that you are a long term investor, not a market timer. Though I do not wish to do that myself, nor do I encourage others to, I respect the fact that you are acting in a rational and sane way.
TwentyFive, I never said no stock market. I plan to be building companies and taking them public.
I just am opposed to speculation, which accounts for most of the stock market activity.
SJG
^^^I guess you are the final arbiter of what can be considered speculative and what might be responsible investing. Man you are so full of contradictions it must be tough being you.
^^^But you are the guy constantly harping on invest in your own business, I don’t need bragging rights, you need to point to one example of where you put your money where you put your mouth. If you don’t want to put up then you need to shut up.
@mark94 So are you changing your non-committal story now? You know Bitcoin is bubble, but your roulette analogy implies it's just as likely to go up or down. That after say nothing could be know.
I get the feeling a guy like you will never be pinned down to any position that can be proven wrong. Just the kind of weaselly little guy that you are. And no your story about JFK doesn't get you away from the fact that your statements are just one big tangle of contradictions.
SJG: "TwentyFive, I never said no stock market. I plan to be building companies and taking them public.
I just am opposed to speculation, which accounts for most of the stock market activity."
OMG! So now it is okay to invest in the stock market after all?
Yeah, okay, @mark94 and @SJG don't let the fact that you guys constantly blatantly contradict yourself be any concern. We'll still think you know what you are talking about? Riiiiiigght?
@SJG Actually most stock market activity, really all market activity consists of buying and selling, but the vast number of investors in the stock market own shares in mutual funds which do most of the trading on a day to day basis, everyone times the markets to some extent,even those that buy and hold long term, so basically you and mark 94 really don't know shit about how the US economy works, or how the world is linked together. It would be interesting, to say the least, to see you build a company run by misogynists and being attended to by whores, talk about speculating that's all you ever do, like i said put up or shut up.
Yep, @25 has uncovered another contradiction by @SJG. @SJG used to argue against speculation by saying speculators can't beat the market because it is large pension and sovereign wealth funds that set prices and they are basically buy and hold for huge periods of time. Everyone else was too little to compete with them. But now he wants to say it's actually speculators who make up most of the market action.
Just keep changing your story from day to day don't you @SJG?
(And hint: your first take was right. Most people in the market are just buy and hold. Mostly money in their retirement funds. Or passively invested in mutual funds or ETFs.)
@Dougster the thing is these guys seem to think it’s about beating the market, with thinking that far off, you know they don’t have a clue. It’s really about expanding your own personal wealth in a manner that is comfortable to you. I’m satisfied with average returns at this point in my life, it’s very satisfying to know that I am in a position to live comfortably within my means and help those that I care for. Over the long term markets will continue to rise occasional dips will always give younger and newer investors a chance to grow their own personal wealth, and of course the market will always be proof that civilization is progressing faster, with each new advance that is integrated into our knowledge base.
@25: "of course the market will always be proof that civilization is progressing faster"
Exactly. That is the stock market at its most basic level. It's why it will always rise over time, and faster than "devaluation of currency" as @SJG says. It's also why it is not a zero sum game.
If you look at it that way it is almost trivial to understand, and everyone can see that @SJG is wrong. (Although apparently he is changing his tune now. It is now okay to invest in the stock market, providing you are not speculating! Before he said even investing in a 401k was some sort of unwise and unethical action.) Maybe he actually found someone nearly as psycho as him to join his church but the person said "Nope. No way unless we plan to go public one day." So @SJG has to completely change his story now and hope nobody notice so he can get that one member.
You're the big liar here @SJG. First you say it's never okay to invest in the stock market, now it's okay but providing you are not speculating. You really are a complete idiot. And a complete faggot.
Bitcoin is a chumps game.
You’d be better off investing in front room make out sessions in the Mexican underground dancing circuit. #Fact!!!
Or, in gravy futures....
^^^And again our master moralist tells everyone how they should live their life, no wonder you have no friends! I actually feel sorry for you, how lonely your life is.
@SJG: grown men have better things to do, except for those times when it's okay. Which used to be never, not even 401ks. But now it's sometimes.
Okay, @SJG how about you clarify when it's okay to invest in the stock market and when it's speculating?
a) Guidelines are that you are supposed to max out your 401k and, in addition, save 15% of your income. Some decided to put 25% of their income into the stock market. Speculating or okay?
b) a person has gone completely psycho and instead of want to buy an index found wants to invest in the IPO of @SJG's all gay all psycho church. Speculating or okay?
c) Somebody has been reading too many of @SJG's posts and thinks the stock market is a bubble about to burst. Decide to take the money out and put it all in money market for a while. Speculating or okay?
d) Someone decides to put more in bonds then Modern Portfolio Theory says they should or to buy something other than an index fund. Speculating or okay?
Please give us clarity on what the latest iteration of your changes day to day position is.
> Even Bernie Madoff would blush if he tried to tell lies like Dougster does.
It's easy to say stuff like that when Bernie isn't in a position to log in and defend himself. I'm waiting for him to get out and give his take on vincemichaels and rickdugan before forming an opinion on this matter.
It's better if people can invest in themselves and their own ventures. Once they start doing that, they can always be expanding the scope and scale of their ventures, and so they won't need parking places for money. Need to have a team to, as the money will accumulate and you will need to have people to draw upon to run new ventures.
401k and IRA come with tax and other advantages, but the advantages to someone who invests their time energy and money into their own ventures, are far greater.
What Dougster and his ilk call "creating wealth" is really just exploiting divisions of labor in order to bring us to a two tier society.
Most of the people in the stock market are just guys who have more dollars than sense. What they get is just Federal Government deficit spending working to create a mountain of completely wasted money which serves no good but to inflate the stock market and home prices.
SJG
Cutting Crew - (I Just) Died in Your Arms Tonight
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Do people like the power ballad form? If it is slow enough it will often be in the Key of E, hence working with the lowest note on Bass and Guitar.
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How To Talk To Women & Spark Attraction
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You have your own answer, putting your money into your own affairs, and those of a circle of close associates is the best.
The rest of it is just people with more dollars than sense.
SJG
Yardbirds Tangerine
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Led Zeppelin - For Your Love - rare live tape
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Yardbirds, Train Kept A Rolling, 1968 French TV
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Dazed and Confused
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Rare early Stairway to Heaven, Led Zeppelin
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Tells me absolutely nothing about how you would answer the four situations I posed. Questions you are scared to answer. Keep on running san_jose_guy! Just like the little faggot that you are!
If the decision is between money into their own affairs and your the imaginary IPO of your all gay, all psycho church, they should definitely put it into their own affairs. Kind of get the feeling nobody needs to be told that, however.
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