Question for our market analysts
twentyfive
Living well and enjoying my retirement
It seems that the Trump Market Rally has stalled over the last two to three weeks, all of the controversy seems to be causing consternation among market professionals, how do you see this new development ? Just curious I'd like to hear thoughts from some of you experts, I'll share mine after I can fully form my opinions in the next day or so.
Got something to say?
Start your own discussion
197 comments
As far as sentiment goes, it's unclear. I saw one piece saying people are extremely bullish: the most since 2004 another showing an crazy-insane positioning of 8:1 shorts versus longs.
Might want to play it with a strangle since volatility is current very low, unless your better able to analyze the minds of Trump and the Republicans than I am.
He's a much better market analyst
Executive Order 1/27/2017 appears stalled, now in the courts. #NotABan #POTUShasConstitutionalAuthority
source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-off…
I wonder if the most recent Executive Order 2/3/2017, to change Dodd-Frank has any effect. Are the markets worried President Trump will try to get Glass-Steagall reinstated???
source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-off…
Plus aren't the tax cuts tabled until after Congress does repeal/replace of the Healthcare Act? Log-jam / clam-jam. So the tax cuts might not play until 2018 at this rate with the healthcare log jam.
What a bunch of bird brains. They need to think long term, like Dougster suggests.
I read that market sentiment by some measures was the most bullish since early 1987. Of course October 1987, I think the market dropped over 20%.
Usually when magazines start talking numbers like DOW 30,000 etc that seem sky high, it's a sign of upcoming pullbacks. When all Bulls have bought stocks at the peak of investor optimism and you have no bears to convert to Bulls, you run out of buyers.
When people start getting statements reflecting losses in (previously thought to be "safe") bond funds, bond funds will sell off, generating further losses due to untimely liquidation. This is called a bubble.
Sold off bond proceeds will be divided between stocks and gold. Watch gold spike. Watch stocks temporarily spike.
After that, look out belooooooooow . . .
So short treasuries? :-)
==================================
Not saying it will necessarily unfold this way, but maybe...
(1) Yellen will raise interests rates in good intention in order to prevent a bubble and stabilize the markets.
(2) The markets will go down slightly in response.
(3) In a paranoid furry, Trump will go on a Twitter war against the Fed taking Yellen's rate rise as a personal insult.
(4) Trump will replace Yellen with an Ayn Rand, free-market type in 2018. Could be, say, Greenspan, who will be 92 (or might be dead by that time -- doesn't matter). We don't need no stinkin' financial regulation.
Back on topic, if I were @LarryFishstix age, I would put 100% into stocks and ride out all the fluctuations over time. At my age, my wife and I max out our 401Ks and put all new money into stocks, which is a sort of dollar-cost-averaging. We do have bonds -- but it's in the form of bond ladders (not bond funds) that we hold to maturity, mostly high-quality corporate debt. And we have real estate. Don't have the skill or time to study the markets in detail, but I do pay attention to the CAPE index which attempts to measure the overall valuation of the S&P. It's not perfect, but it does show a market at very high valuations and I wouldn't be surprised if the market tanks at some point. I've been saying that for years, and it hasn't happened yet.
Link describing the CAPE index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically…
Add to that the simple fact that we don't know how many posters are actually anonymous horny virgins that just make up stories about fucking strippers!
What will have an effect, however, is Europe. The right there is going to get alot of fuel off Trump's success here. Gonna have people shitting their pants that it's 1848 all over again. Will be a great buying opportunity.
Also wanted to throw out a stock ticker for discussion this morning: GILD. vincemichaels should be familiar with them because of the work they do on HIV medications. Now it's definitely a super long term hold and not for little girlies who will get scared if it does dip another 10-15% from here but I think it's very good from a value and future potential perspective. What do the rest of you think of GILD?
===================================
TUSCL isn't such a bad place to trade investment stories. There's a correlation b/w guys who have enough money to piss away on strippers and those who have some investment experience. We also have a few guys here in finance, at least one actuary, and (I think) some guys who do financial planning. TUSCL probably beats talking to your broker. And their's plenty of bandwidth available for those interested in another excruciating chapter of @Smith's midlife crisis.
As an outsider to finance, two books by Robert Shiller had the biggest influence on me. He's a hard-core MIT educated economist who was influenced by his wife (a psychologist). He writes about the psychology of bubbles and they gave him a Nobel Prize. No matter how analytical you are, there are times when market psychology takes over everything. We've got an insane-clown president in office and a bunch of Goldmanites in the cabinet. Watch for history to repeat itself.
Then we have some so bad (e.g. RickyBoy and SJG) that they actually great negative correlations (nearly -1.0) between what they say and what actually happens.
So if you can distinguish the two, these discussions actually pay off.
So what does Trump offer except right wing doctrines of scapegoating?
Hillary Clinton offered affordable college and restoration of Bill's 2% extra tax on high income. Both of these create economic growth.
But besides, why would anyone want to put their hard earned money into something that they and their own pool of associated do not control?
I know Dougster is trying to promote a Ponzi scheme, with the ultimate goal of splitting the human race into two tiers. Why would anyone else be going along with this.
SJG
twentyfive --> "Let me say in response to @JS69s assertion above, that Random opined on, that is sad and it wouldn't hurt for some of you to read some of these financial threads, and even if you don't take them verbatim at the very least explore some of the wisdom imparted with an advisor that you trust.
^^^ Well said. This is the #1 reason I'm still here / around Tuscl. It's not really for the SC advice. This is a great collection / concentration of successful people (some are 1%ers). So I am trying to learn and absorb what good advice I can find. So, thank you. :)
twentyfive --> "If this applies to you"
LOL!
SJG
The most basic kind is a consulting business. No reason it ever needs to fail, as it has zero overhead.
SJG
And then when this can be integrated with building a product for your own company, bingo.
SJG
SJG
To both, I do.
Enjoy your quartz.
SJG
Bond funds (especially those with longer average durations) are more susceptible to interest rate hikes. If one must hold bond funds, as in many 401(k) plans, choose options with shorter duration to reduce interest rate risk. Also, consider mixing with high yield options aka below-investment grade bond funds aka junk bond funds.
Importantly, as the equity markets achieve new all-time highs week after week, keep something in cash and/or in low duration bonds so that you have some "dry powder" to make equity purchases when those dreaded 20% market downturns/buying opportunities arise.
Most importantly, don't spend more than you earn.
SJG
"We know that the leading cause of erectile dysfunction is marriage."
Shadowcat + 20
Good discussion about how the Constitution is about property rights over people rights:
https://www.amazon.com/Commonwealth-Mich…
Black Panther's band - The Lumpen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQZEwco3…
Ashley Graham
https://www.yahoo.com/style/model-ashley…
The Egyptian ( 1954 ), about Akhenaten.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0046949/
Whole movie on youtube, watch soon, as these don't last long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QGrqYm4…
You're going to have to cite a reference. And does it take into account that corporations are often structured to pass the income through to the owners so they don't have to pay that ridiculous 35% tax?
I won't rule out a 20% correction this year if Europe gets bad enough, but that would just be a good buying opportunity and do nothing to slow down the rally long term.
Could be 1848 all over again, and I think this is one time the markets don't know in advance how it all plays out, although every day brings a bit more clarity.
I don't know what the above means. A corporation can pay salaries, and not have that be subject to the 35%. But if they pay shareholder dividends, I believe they have to pay the tax, and this is but only one of the reasons that only the largest pay dividends.
Now as far a Chapter S Corps, I do not know. They could well have some special channel to avoid taxes. Seems like they would need this.
Now about giving benefits to executives, company cars and all, there are rules. But it is in the pushing of those rules to the limit that many owners benefit.
Dougster, this is not 1848. But things on the ground are real bad. More and more Americans are living closer and closer to the margins, with less and less job security and housing costs taking up a greater and greater portion of their incomes. And the nonsense you are putting out only makes things worse. You are part of a contingent which is bringing us to dystopia.
And what you are promoting is a Ponzi scheme. And people have lots of skills which they should use, and also invest their money in their own doings, instead of speculating.
Is there to be any kind of a revolution? Well Trump is forcing it. And here local government is too. This is where I am currently involved.
SJG
The Egyptian, 1954, watch soon, as movies don't stay up long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QGrqYm4…
Now if a corporation has revenue and we subtract from that its expenses, aren't there ways the corporation can shield the money from taxation:
1. Building Reserve Fund
2. Giving People Raises and Paying Bonuses
3. Investing In More Plant And Equipment
4. Buying Other Businesses, sometimes suppliers and customers
5. Expanding by starting new product lines
6. Paying for services of outside contractors ( R and D, Advertising, etc )
7. Buying contractual rights, timber, mining, public airwaves, airport use, etc.
8. Exploration costs ( like drilling more oil wells )
Now I know that their are legal limits on all of these things. But sometimes these limits are a bit plastic. And many times those of the above can rightly be considered mandatory costs if they want to stay in business. So as I know, this is how most corps pay no tax. I don't see this as illegitimate, so long as they are following the same rules as other corporations.
And then also related, start-up companies usually don't pay taxes or dividends. What they offer their shareholders is growth. It is assumed that it is better to keep the money in the start-up than to bleed it out. And then when the shares are closely held, the owners are often getting other benefits as well.
Now when you talk about a very large public corp, with widely held shares, then growth potential is no longer there. And the shareholders are very distant, then the only way to reward them is dividends. And so the corp then also has to pay taxes.
Are there situations when a corp is not paying dividends, but still has to pay income tax? Probably, but I don't know enough about this to know what those would be.
And Dougster, I have never suggested that anyone should quit any job!
What I have said is that they should invest their money in themselves, and in what they can do with a circle of close associates. This way they stand to get a double win, monetary and social.
And as a corollary, one can deduct the costs of a non-profitable business for some time, and even subject to some limits, the costs of a zero revenue business. I have done this myself.
Here is a question for you Dougster:
Suppose I run three organizations:
1. For profit, local services firm, I own vast majority of shares.
2. For profit, world wide high tech manufacturing firm, I own vast majority of shares.
3. Non-profit, likely religious. I am its director and for all intensive purposes have total control.
Now I know there are limits on one person controlling too many things, of too great a size. Do you know what these are.
Suppose I decide to donate my shares in #1 to #3. Having this genuinely helps #3, whether it sells it, or keeps it.
So I should get a big tax deduction, and for something which I built with sweat, but cost me no money. If #1 is not public, how do I establish the worth of its shares?
So then could I sell like say $1 Meg of shares from #2, and then have that covered by a tax deduction from donating the shares of #1?
So I get $1 Meg free and clear ( for paying hookers for sex of course ), without actually giving up anything which cost me money, as I built #1, #2, and #3 up from nothing, putting in little more than sweat. And the donation of #1 to #3 really does help #3.
Legal? What are the limits?
And thank you 25 for that info on Sub Chap S.
SJG
Egyptian, 1954
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QGrqYm4…
FYI, the Babylonian Courtesan is played by Daryl Zanuck's current mistress, Bella Darvi, an actress from Poland. The part was expanded for her.
Now the second part of your term paper, as a general rule you get to deduct the cost of goods and services that you use to produce your product, now you are starting to get into some taxes that need to be paid but remember you are just a one or two man show at this point so your corp reflects this and elects the pass through distinction of Sub S or LLC, tax strategy at this point is not where you live and die, so you focus your energies on increasing sales and growing your business.
Here is where things are getting interesting, you have grown your small enterprise to a reasonable size having increased sales to reflect several hires along with the costs associated with these hires, you are starting to develop a good following and your revenues reflect this, now its time to give yourself a raise. Tax prep is starting to become important but not yet crucial. Remember if you are making a good living you pay your taxes using an experienced preparer usually a CPA .
At this point you need to decide on an exit or running strategy for your enterprise, you have been running hard for a long time at this point do you want to coast and just enjoy your increased income, solidify your good lifestyle, save enough money to have a nice long and hopefully enjoyable retirement, or grow this enterprise into a public company. That is completely up to you.
So as you see there are many different strategies it all depends on your goals.
Now coming to your often repeated theme what should a businessman who has retired do with the proceeds of his sale, if one was to listen to you just park the cash under your pillow and draw down as needed without knowing how long you need to make that nest egg last. Put it in a bank account and earn less than the cost of real inflation currently low but that may change, or invest it in the stock market and with a little luck and some smart investments grow that nest egg to allow you to continue in this great lifestyle that you have earned and created for yourself. You now can respond with some junk about investing in your self, or Ponzi schemes or you can give it a little thought and start to grow up a little where you realize that you don't have all of the answers. I hope for your sake you opt for the latter.
BTW the strategy of investing is for everyone whether they own a business which is probably the more difficult option or they have a job that they hopefully get satisfaction as well as income from.
Ah, that's the tough part to figure out. I was not a big fan of Facebook for instance. I thought they had limited growth potential a few years back, but it turns out I was wrong about them as were many other skeptics. Today there are plenty of large companies that may or may not have growth potential. For example how about AAPL? Right now they *appear* to be resting on their laurels of the iPhone and Mac. But do they have something up their sleeves? Hard to say. (Incidentally I think they are buy just on the basis of their cash and current business, so anything beyond that is gravy). There are many other companies in this boat as well. See if you can name some.
And working with a group of close associates is the correct decision for some people, but it comes with risk. It's not the right call for everyone. People need to weigh all the factors. Which I think is what they already do.
As for "social" benefits I would, in general, the large public corporations are generally responsible for great social benefit. It's not always true, but when it is not, it's a an exception rather than the rule.
But how much better to put $ into things you and your circle of close associates are running, rather than speculating, buying in with zero predictive knowledge and zero control, and making your broker rich with your stupidity.
And 25, Sub Chap S is good for things which are more collaborative. Not everyone wants that. Some of want to hold as high a percentage of the shares as possible, we want control, and this control can be even more important than profits, as control has financial benefits. You don't need to answer to anyone for the actions you take.
And cart before horse? What is the purpose of making money if you don't know where it is going to go? And it is better if you have ways to recirculate it with as little tax bite as possible. Our tax laws are set up with certain assumptions. Not that difficult to get completely around those assumptions. Most counter culture stuff has always worked like this.
Though at a smaller scale, I've been running my own stuff for over 25 years. Not your 40 years, but still enough to know.
If it is just about money, then you are just another squirrel spinning that cage wheel. My objectives are much bigger than just money.
We all have talents which we should be using. Don't help do Dougster's evils for him!
SJG
2 Pillars of Solomon
https://archive.org/details/2PillarsOfSo…
People just have to decide all the factors going into working with their associates or investing the money in the markets. They could go with the latter by an index ETF, and spend maybe a few hours a year because of it. Keep their current jobs so there is little risk in that approach. Or they could size up their circle of associates and their idea for a business and see if it's worth the effort and risk. Lots of factors will weigh in. Their age for instance. How much time they want to devote to it. It will be right decision for some, but for most probably best just to buy that index ETF and spend their extra time with their families. Everyone has different values and risk tolerances and so will have to decide for themselves. But given most businesses fail that math says it would definitely be better just to invest it for most.
And to your point of not being about the money it really is about what the money can get for you money is neither good or bad it is a tool if you use it wisely you can buy the Presidency of the United States.
When I say people should invest in themselves, I mean things that they and their own circle of close associates are running. I mean become your own VC(s), but do it on a smaller and more frugal scale.
I never said anyone should quit any job. Sometimes jobs just go away. But outside money to put in always helps. But if you build enough of your own companies, and keep the overheads small, and do it with reliable things, instead of the way KP does it, then you will win.
1. Social benefit, developing your skills and your circle of outstanding people
2. Big money, but best to soak it up in new companies, find way to reabsorb it and avoid taxes.
None of this is higher risk than market speculation. And no one should quit any job or passively allow their job to go away, unless really involved in other ventures.
You Dougster are the one making straw man arguments.
Remember, if you are the boss, you do it on your own terms, meaning the hours. And today with electronic communications and redirection of cell phones etc, you can run a part time business and not interfere with a day job.
You are assuming that quitting a day job is a requirement. Not so.
But don't take money from VC's, be your own VC, just at a smaller and more frugal scale.
And you don't need to wear all the hats, you build a circle of close and trusted associates.
Lots of people are currently running as many as 1/2 dozen small companies doing diverse things.
SJG
They don't have to have significant fixed costs. They can piggy back on other stuff.
VC funded stuff, on the other hand, has a very high failure rate. They are over capitalized and aimed at narrow market windows, and with flakey product / service offerings based usually on gaining market control. They don't serve real needs, they are gambits for control.
Believe me, I know KP first hand.
And above all, everyone, continue to build your talents and abilities and use them. Don't let Dougster and his political ilk convince you otherwise. They speak with forked tongues.
SJG
https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/1…
SJG
And if things never really go, then you still keep the day job.
You, 40 years running your own biz, should know this better than anyone.
SJG
If think you are completely missing the point. The object of the game is not to show you know more but to make some money. So even if you admit you don't know more. So what? Buy and hold an index ETF and you'll make money long term. Don't quite your job and that'll also be low risk.
SJG: "Might as well just be getting LV odds makers to take your bet on the national weather service."
Again you are missing a big point which is that the stock is a "positive sum" game. So you'll make money, unlike your Vegas example which is negative sum and the money would indeed end up with the house.
I don't think you get even the basics here, SJG.
SJG = doesn't even know the basic, constantly contradicting himself.
What's the rate and please cite your source.
Thanks!
Dougster, yeah yeah yeah, say anything to promote your Ponzi scheme, and the ultimate goal of your ilk, to split humanity into two tiers. And it really is not a very good way to make money either, and certainly not for people who stand opposed to what you are trying to do.
SJG
Panthers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bcubkt6…
What I said above is the truth. The stock market is a positive sum game. You have absolutely no comeback to that I see. Truth is pretty hard to argue with isn't it?
Lol!
Any opinions on ONVO, SJG?
I was thinking picking some up late last fall, but it didn't look like the best buying point. Thinking on the current dip it might be okay. $3 probably okay, but $2.5 would be really nice. Going to watch.
I also got into some GILD last week around $65.8. Again, who knows short term. These are things I plan on holding for years though.
See vinceygirl: No hard feeling between me and you, okay???
So I could watch the TV news weather forecast, and then get someone to give me odds and take my bet on what will actually happen. This is how the stock markets are. You don't have any info which the people who effectively control it don't. People get off on it because it makes them feel alive, when their lives have turned into doldrums, and when they have become so beaten down that they no longer see the talents which they have and what might be done with them. Don't let Dougster and his ilk do this to people..
Now that it often seems to be a positive net, well this is just the way our society is rigged to help the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
The seeming positive tilt to the stock market is absolutely not a better deal than putting your money into your own affairs. With these you not only have knowledge, you have a degree of control. So you use your money to make it possible to do things you otherwise could not. You do this for yourself, and you do it for the circle of associates you build. Because it works in multiple dimensions, it offers a better economic prospect, and it also offers all kinds of other benefits.
And don't listen to any of Dougster's boosting for this or that. It is all forked tongue, pitch lines, Ponzi boosting. Instead, figure out how to derail he and his ilk, or we will all end up living in a dystopia like they show in The Matrix.
SJG
Positive sum versus negative sum, dumbass.
Also there are about four hedge funds that consistently beat the markets and few guys like Buffet who have done the same, so, yes, some people are better at it than others.
Almost never are you going to have anything the professional fund managers don't already have, in terms of info. And these are the guys who make the big buy and sell orders that determine the prices.
So if you find something which looks good, that is already reflected in the price. And if it looks iffy, that is already reflected in the price.
So it is a casino.
And it is a Ponzi scheme because the current level of economic activity depends upon people living beyond their means, on ecological unsustainability, and on social instability in that more and more people have less and less and so our Democracy is being placed at risk.
What seems to drive this Ponzi scheme 25, is the same psychology which keeps you wanting to defend it, and Dougster and his ilk using this to destroy our democracy in order to create a dystopia.
The basic stock market advice is still, buy low, sell high. But the way it works, most of the time it is just the rich getting richer by taking money off of the poor. If you examine these issues, you are acting on information which is always after the fact, has zero predictive power.
And that you even listen to Jim Cramer is a sad commentary on what your actual life must be like.
Don't listen to Dougster, you have actual talents which you could be using your own money to help you apply.
And a General Strike against Trump? Count me in!
SJG
But we all have tremendous under utilized skills, which we could use if we backed ourselves up with our money.
Like Varoufakis says, it is a $5.2 Trillion mountain of money which does nothing except inflate real estate and home prices, but nothing to meet the real needs of our evolving world.
SJG
Again, it's pretty easy to lookup the historical returns of people investing in the S&P. You say starting your own small business is better, but where is your data to back that up?
In, any case, GS has had very good returns but I didn't include them in the four I mentioned because they are not a hedge fund. But it's another good example of how there are a few players out there who can consistently beat the market.
25, part of the problem is that from Reagan forward, federal policy has been to create stock market bubbles. So all these hedge fund things, and Warren Buffet, gain from that.
Its like it was with John C. Calhoun. He wanted every white man to own at least one negro slave. That way there would be no more opposition to slavery.
Well, Nixon was certainly a candidate of Wall Street. But he was not pushing further financialization. That only hurts working people, and that would look bad on the national stage.
But from Reagan onwards, they have been always trying to pull more money and more and more people into these financial markets. It is just a second layer between workers and the value.
25, sounds like you have done well now for some decades. But you have turned into a guy with more dollars than sense.
SJG
I forget who said this but "Living well is the best reward"
And then as far as I, you keep forgetting something, I maintain a strict privacy wall, so you know nothing about me.
SJG
SJG
If anyone has loved ones working in the hospitals they will tell you all medical charting is being digitized and reporting is done widespread by Cerner. Most staff across the country have been getting training on this software and technology. It will be the mode of record keeping for medical charting. The Niska play will be infrastructure for natural gas as that resource with its abundance and cheap availability will be the environmental safe play on fossil fuels. Cars will be run on natural gas and definitely more trucks and semi for our transportation needs. It's a growing trend. Sit in these two plays for the next 5-10 years and you will thank me!
Then how were people able to find your LinkedIn profile so easily?
But if you call a bookie to bet on an athletic event, they give you odds.
If you decide to put your money into the stock market, large professional investors are the ones who set the odds, and the way they do this is by using their money to establish the current price. It is almost impossible for you to legally know anything more than they know. So basically, you are betting against these professional investors. They put money in, up to a certain price. Were they right or were they wrong?
At a personal level, the tragedy is that people are led to believe that this form of gambling is a better place for their money than investing in themselves, and in their own circle of close associates.
At the political level, people glorify the speculator, as work itself and the people who do it, because less and less valued.
Dougster and his ilk are working day and night to bring about fascism, and one of the manifestations of this will be a two-tier society.
SJG
An amateur day trader has little likelihood of long term success over professional investors with experience and voluminous research.
However, investing in equities over longer periods of time is relying on the belief that management will run the company in such a way as to maximize shareholder value. Large and small shareholders share alike in growth and dividends. Diversifying across a cross-section of businesses and sectors reduces the likelihood of losing everything.
If a person owns and operates a business, they have equity and control. If they are skilled (and surround themselves with skilled individuals), entrepreneurial ownership can pay handsome rewards. However, for the majority of individuals lacking entrepreneurial ideas and resources, investing in a diversified portfolio of well run, solid corporations is the next best way to grow ones savings at a rate outpacing inflation.
Investing is not fascism. Investing is not gambling. Investing is investing. Holding stock is ownership. Period.
To discourage anyone from investing in a well run 401(k) plan is lunacy, bordering on financial homicide.
Mic drop.
And 25, how many of those companies in the 401K do you control? I am very surprised that you, a 40 year long business owner, do not understand this.
If you put money into your own abilities, then you have the better chances of good results.
And no, you don't need to do it alone, to wear all the hats. I have always made it clear that you need to have a team.
Now, there is one difficulty, to start and run a corporation, and do a good job with distribution of equity, you need to have great lawyers and accountants, and this is out of reach for most people.
I don't admire KP. But they do have great lawyers and they know all the tricks. Their firm is not a proprietorship, it is a corporation with shares. And the money, comes from rich investors and it goes into funds, and then the funds own the shares in the startups.
This is tremendously complex and the legalities are extreme. And they use one of the highest power law firms, Wilson Sonsini. This is out of reach of most people, by far.
And then the quality of management in the start ups, it typically sucks. Because KP wants things with huge win potentials, they emphasize novelty and market control. This is why 9 out of 10 fail. But KP does not care, because to them it is just money, no pride in the work for them.
So is there another way? What opened my eyes was
http://www.khoslaventures.com/
I don't want to do things his way. But he showed me that there can be lots and lots of ways. And much of what he gives his companies is non-monetary, just advice and connections.
I am more inspired by the English Arts and Crafts Movement in the 1900, and by our own Open Source / Open Standards movement.
This book talks about people I have worked with:
https://www.amazon.com/Money-No-Object-V…
It shows how the further the startup gets from its goals, the more it becomes like the Tower of Babel. People don't even speak the same language. These startup companies are very often complete reality distortions, nonsense.
http://www.darktarot.com/images/cards/80…
So when you put money into the stock market, you do not have this kind of inside view.
Think about it, the investors ( reps of the VC's ) are being treated to monthly dog and pony shoes where all kinds of people are giving presentations. You can gauge the people and question them.
But if you are just an outside investor in a public firm, that kind of detail has to be concealed by confidentiality agreements. All you get are the financials. And then of course the higher the P to E, and the more it is a start up instead of an established firm, the less the financials really mean.
I say, very stupid to put money into things you are not on the inside of, and really into things you don't control.
Putting money into stuff you don't run and where you don't know the people, is just betting against the inside and pro investors. It is just a way of getting an adrenaline rush and making yourself feel important. You can get a better buzz just from paying hookers.
Put your money into your own stuff.
In my organization this issue of quality lawyering for the legalities will be solved, everything involving real estate, contractual agreements, and especially equity.
But other people can work together to solve these problems too, and they can make the rules work for them too.
SJG
I think he is the all time leader in creating enemies with TUSCL members. That's one successful organization he's created; a laundry list of people who hate him on TUSCL. I wonder how SJG would survive in the rest of the country in parts like Texas, Ohio, Arizona, or Iowa? Those people don't fuck around with counter cultural attitudes like his. It usually ends with someone being dragged behind a pickup truck through gravel roads for several miles, and SJG isn't driving the pick up.
"Daddillac
Joined Jul 2008
Clubs: 27
Reviews: 79
Yesterday • SJG.... I did read the thread, Shadow asked "What is the most expensive lap dance price shown on TUSCL for straight lap dances?"
I did not see him ask for an opinion, which is what you answered with.
In the beginning your opinions were funny and I enjoyed your casual comments. Later I felt sorry for you that you had to voice your opinion about everything, your existence must be so miserable. Finally, it got to where it pissed me off to see your comments. You never give a straight answer on anything and only try to piss people off with your opinions. Honestly I don't think even you believe most of the shit that comes out of your mouth, you just want to be heard.
Count me as one who is no longer listening
Fuck Off SJG
It may seem to have a positive tilt most of the time, but this is because the government promotes this, in order to maintain high approval. Our Federal Lottery, is the stock market. Sad.
And the issue was raised about having a place to park your reserve fund or nest egg. I think the sum of 50k was suggested.
Well that underscores the advantage of running your own stuff. It is not just money, it is control. Better if you don't need to take the money out. The less money you take out, the less taxes you pay. Having to take it out is because your are an employee.
And of course it is always better to let new companies you start soak up as much taxable income as possible, within legal limits of course.
All of this requires good lawyers and accountants. The people who run Kliener Perkins have benefited from this at every turn. Most of us have not had this.
SJG
No they do it because it's generally the best way for them to make money long term.
Dougster, when you sold your soul, I hope Mr. Big gave you something good in exchange. Mind if I ask what that was, because I certainly don't see any evidence of it.
SJG
SJG
ime is organizing a Boycott SJG campaign here on TUSCL:
https://www.tuscl.net/postread.php?PID=4…
So far many have signed up including me, 25, and meat. Are you interested in joining? As ime points out, SJG has no interested in discussing what people really believes. He wants to argue against a bunch of strawmen he sets up to make himself look like a hero. No regard for the truth of how he represents his opponent whatsoever.
Where I live, some people have 2 or 3 jobs and can't afford anymore than renting the sofa in someone's living room.
With each of these boom and busts, the situation gets worse. We have not added a single living wage job since the 2008 sub prime melt down.
If people are without options, that is because they have been politically marginalized. All this talk about the stock market is intended to do that!
If people can politically organize, they can come up with better financial options also.
But absolutely no way, are a majority of working class American's putting money in the stock market. Doug Henwood, Left Business Observer, talks about this in detail.
Dougster and supporters are simply preaching fatalism, convincing people that their own social and political organizing skills are worthless. This what Dougster and his ilk want people to believe.
And the more Right Wing A. Holes who boycott me, the less time I will need to spend doing thread by thread troll patrols.
SJG
Word of mouth keeps me too busy with repeat asset management business. I win again! Kicking ass in the real world and TUSCL. AUM for me has increased over $50 million in one year! Duck off SJG!
SJG
https://www.amazon.com/YOU-CANT-CHEAT-HO…
SJG
pensions; social security; medicare prescription drug coverage; the national debt = Ponzi scheme against the young.
Notice a trend???
That kind of financial system makes our whole society into a Ponzi Scheme.
And both Mussolini and the Underground Reich run on manipulation of financial markets, fraud, Ponzi fraud.
Fascism is really just the concentration of power and destruction of democracy. Financial fraud is very much this.
SJG
SJG, the public is separate from private when it comes to ownership of stock. That is the opposite of a Ponzi scheme. There is no ownership in Ponzi schemes. When you own stock you have an ownership in commerce, which deals in the ownership of goods and services. This is the very ownership that you promote, which is creating your own companies, so if you had your own organization you should support stock ownership, as those very same people would be investing in your organization. Ponzi schemes have no valuations, yet the stock market does have valuations. People buy and sell them everyday in the most regulated system in the history of earth. Explain that one SJG! And don't side step the issue with some false narrative.
as for my own affairs, NOT OPEN TO OUTSIDE INVESTMENT.
SJG
Given the choice would you rather invest $20,000 in SJGs church or in the S&P.
:-)
Looks like it will be a fun market open today!
Oh, well, should be good some good buying opportunities out of this.
If we do break down, I was thinking it's almost a freefall to $229 on the SPY, then should get some buyers again. Definitely around mid $227's there should be lots of buyers show up.
So your discussion of them is complete nonsense.
People should not listen to these people, telling them that their actual skills are worthless and promoting a form of glorified gambling, and then patting themselves on the back.
SJG
And when the stock markets are inflated beyond a point, they most certainly are Ponzi schemes.
http://www.multpl.com/
And I'm not the originator of that insight. For one thing we have the 1929 example.
But also, Douglas Rushkoff, an expert on media and representation issues. refused to write about that during the dotcom boom, because he did not want to contribute to the "largest Ponzi scheme in all history", that Nasdaq bubble. He says this in his intro to "Nothing Sacred". Instead of contributing to the dot com bubble, he wrote about Judaism.
And Dougster, here is how media is used to influence elections, and at all levels. Very reasonable seeming people were going along with this idea that Hillary Clinton is corrupt.
"
And what they did with this organization, which the Mercers poured millions of dollars into, was they aimed to kind of create the—drive the political narrative in the 2016 campaign. They created a book called Clinton Cash, which was a compendium of all the kinds of corruption allegations against the Clintons. And they aimed to get it into the mainstream media, where it would pretty much frame the picture of Hillary Clinton as a corrupt person who couldn’t be trusted. And their hope was that they would mainstream this information that they dug up. It was like an opposition research organization, sort of masked as a charity and nonprofit. And they took this book, Clinton Cash, gave it to The New York Times exclusively, early, and the Times then ran with a story out of it, that they said they corroborated. But they ran with it, nonetheless, on their front page, which just launched this whole narrative of Hillary Clinton as corrupt. And it just kept echoing and echoing through the media after that. So, it was a real home run for them. A year later, they made a movie version of it also, which they launched in Cannes.
"
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/3/23/j…
SJG
But as to whether or not the stock market amounts to glorified gambling:
http://www.multpl.com/
You might also find this interesting: Mike Ruppert was an LAPD Narcotics Officer, who accidentally uncovered the CIA's LA narcotics channels.
http://fromthewilderness.com/about.shtml
He is since an investigative journalist devoted to exposing government corruption. About narcotics, his position on our country is,
"We are more addicted to drug money than to drugs."
Specifically he refers to the "pop on Wall Street", by which I think he means P to E. Its the multiplier factor, value of the outstanding shares / gross annual earnings, as I know. He was talking about numbers as high as 30 for a single issue, as being extreme. As you can see, even the aggregate now is often higher than that.
We have at least a $1 billion dollar narcotics trade. Most of this money one way or another washes into the 'legitimate economy', and the Wall Street Pop. though not specifically indicating this, it does depend on this continual influx.
And so Ruppert wrote of a number of years ago about the head of the NYSE going to Columbia to make a cold call on the leader of one of the drug mafia rebel groups, to persuade them to keep the money coming in.
And then there were also these "Pizza Connection" cases on the East Coast, where heroin money was being laundered through pizzerias, and then through the E. F. Hutton investment firm, then being run by Barbara Bush's brother-in-law, Scott Pierce.
And then of Wachovia Bank, it has been widely reported that they had been laundering money from the Mexican drug trade. They became adapted to this, dependent on this. And then when Philippe Calderon came in he deployed the army, first to Michoacán, and then all over. This did not reduce the quantity or quality of drugs coming on, or increase the price, quite the opposite. But it did diffuse the drug trade, and it left Wachovia hanging out to dry.
So having been absorbed into Wells Fargo, I hope any remaining traces of it can be obliterated. But as we see, Wells Fargo does not seem to know how to keep its nose clean either.
Suffice to say, stock market prices depend on many more things than just what goes onto the company balance sheets. And then even the company balance sheets are highly influenced by perceptions. Most of our economy serves the very softest of needs, like keeping up with the Jones. So stock market and real estate inflation also inflates consumption. And the central indicator has long been automobiles. What really took the jobs market down in the Great Depression, not the stock market but the jobs market? It was when the automobile plants closed. That ripples back to about 25% direct unemployment, then plus more for consumer fear.
And what indicated for sure that the Dot Com Ponzi Scheme was over in Silicon Valley? Collapse of the German car dealerships. The San Jose Metro published a cover page cartoon of an overturned Porsche Boxter. After that they and NPR started saying all sorts of critical things, things which they had sequestered while the Ponzi Scheme was running.
And what terrified the entire nation in 2008? It was when the auto plants shut down. That was the point when everyone knew that this was a great deal more than just another recession, and there was no way to cover it up.
And how long do cars last? Well, in the Great Depression, people would drive their cars to stand in bread and soup lines, so that they would not feel like they were being looked down upon. And it was in the Great Depression that the replacement parts industry developed. Cars can last as long as you want them too, just like those big UPS trucks. The issue is social status.
So our entire economy serves extremely soft needs, and the stock market indices depend on many more things than the amount of commerce being done. And then that amount of commerce also depends on perceptions just as much as do the stock market prices.
And then Gaffigan, if you want to own some of the commerce, you need to do more than just own stock in an Inc. You would need to be a proprietor, or at least a full partner. Then you could say that the business's money is your money. The reason we have Inc's, and stock, is specifically because people want to avoid direct ownership.
I see this now, and while not conclusive, it does suggest that despite the high stock market indices, that there could be a recession developing, and in multiple industries simultaneously.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/airfare-ba…
Anybody besides me remember Freddie Laker? And his DC-10's?
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/…
King Crimson - Live in Hyde Park (1969)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiA_q-Kf…
You failed to prove a point SJG, other than you are truly psychotic.
Lol!
SJG
The Ponzi scheme goes away to zero as soon as the gig is up, like Bernie Madoff, or like the organization you're building.
How many people ha e you recruited in your Ponzi scheme SJG? I bet it's only 2, you and your mom's gravy!
Lol, SJG! You should repent your sins right now, or forever hold your peace.
And the one who needs endless quantities of piss to keep him going is Gaffigan.
SJG
SJG
SJG
https://economics.stanford.edu/people/ro…
Sports stadiums do not generate significant local economic growth, Stanford expert says
http://news.stanford.edu/2015/07/30/stad…
Field of Schemes
http://www.fieldofschemes.com/
Fieldofschemes.com is the companion website to Field of Schemes: How the Great Stadium Swindle Turns Public Money Into Private Profit, by Joanna Cagan and Neil deMause. Since 1998, we have been casting a critical eye on the roughly $2 billion a year in public subsidies that go toward building new pro sports facilities.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/04/ra…
SJG
Nazareth - "Holiday"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7pG2ju5…
Gabriela Gunčíková - Love Hurts
https://economics.stanford.edu/people/ro…
Gabriela Gunčíková - How To Sing JANE - Jefferson Starship - Ken Tamplin Vocal Academy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz3AE840…
Gabriela Gunčíková & Bite Hazard - Still Of The Night (Whitesnake cover)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAQfkLAK…
If this guy is a so called expert, tell us how your economy does with no team in town? Tell us how you fill the stadium seats and restaurants when no events are going on?
If you really believe this Stanford "expert", then you're as nuts as he is.
The new stadium in Santa Clara could go this way, as there is a contractual rent reduction on the table, and it is all now the subject of a lawsuit and forensic accounting.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/03/18/sa…
If they get the rent reduction, then based on what they put into public coffers the first year, it becomes a money sink, and this would violate the ballot measure which authorized it. Needless to say, this is a huge mess.
Most people agree that it has done nearly nothing for retail business ( not including when my Christian Eating Lions were there of course. )
In Oakland, the Mayor is saying that they lose $8 million per month on the Raiders, and this is in a very old stadium. One city council member wants to kick them out of the stadium and let it remain unused.
This author has long held that most of these stadiums are public money sinks, to the tune of about $2 billion per year total.
http://www.fieldofschemes.com/
It sounds like now, the Raiders will move to Las Vegas, but it will take 2 years to build them their stadium. That will in turn also be used by UNLV.
Now of course Las Vegas is a one of a kind place. So the normal rules might not apply. But as I see it, there is a good chance that their new stadium will be a money sink as well. And also, more and more cities are becoming more and more like Las Vegas, running on boosting and fatalism, and on distortions of truth.
During the 80's, San Jose tried to brand itself as, "Capitol of Silicon Valley". This has never been true. But it did mean lots of public money going through re-development into private profits, and this has much to do with why San Jose has been in such financial trouble for well over a decade now.
SJG