Ok, so who thinks the market will do a 500 point Dow rally when the Fed finally
They will say how it is all data dependent, etc. etc. yeah, it is all based on the market setting the rate. The Fed sets the rate off of US 3 month treasury rates. Always has. Now if they really want to have a market crash. They can just do something they never did before and raise rates anyway and watch the market react.
The last time I check US 3 month rates it was around .03, a far cry from the .25 rate. Less than 2 weeks to get there for a September increase.
Maybe if the market rallies a 1000 or 2000 the rate will shoot up too.
Are you waiting for the rally?
The last time I check US 3 month rates it was around .03, a far cry from the .25 rate. Less than 2 weeks to get there for a September increase.
Maybe if the market rallies a 1000 or 2000 the rate will shoot up too.
Are you waiting for the rally?
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A good article about current conditions is the following:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-reasons-…
I dreamed this morning I bought a leveraged inverse etf and the market crashed overnight. Trading stopped in the morning. By the time my sell order went in, my money quadrupled.
I read the market has a rate hike priced in by march though. We'll be dropping into 2016 unless we crash in October. My bet is 2016 will feel like 2008 all over again. well maybe not that bad.
You guys did sell the rally yesterday, didn't you?
Dougster or anyone, ever look at this site or compare lunar cycles to improve trading?
http://lunatictrader.com/?Moon_Cycles:Lu…
I once subscribed to another site that claimed changes in pressure due to the changing gravitational pull of the moon affected people and how they felt and they showed a correlation towards increased buying or selling.
Apparently we have entered a red period per the lunar phase which this year has strongly underperformed.
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/perf…
More money is lost trying to protect investors from losing money or predicting downturns than anything else in the investment world. Wish I could cite the publications that substantiate this quip so TUSCLers don't think I'm just pulling that shit out of thin air, like the Battle Creek journalist's strip club article.
Nothing is an easier sale than selling fear. That's why fear mongers are everywhere. People are more motivated to avoid pain than they are to seek pleasure. Granted, people can be motivated to action based on feeding greed -- it just takes longer to close the deal. Plus, people are wary of opportunties that seem too good to be true. People tend to easily believe the promise of bad news, though.
That is why I am a buyer when the fear rhetoric reaches a crecendo.
Lastly, IMHO, the markets are reacting to information coming out of China more than the Feds action/inaction at this juncture.
SJG
But this approach to business is a 100% waste of technical talent.
http://www.amazon.com/Money-No-Object-Ve…
For proprietor funded, Mom and Pop startups, the failure rate is very low.
@Meat72, are you saying that this "market", way up high in the clouds, provides lower risk and a higher rate of return than what you could do by yourself, or with a team of close associates? That makes no sense.
This "market" is led by professional hedge fund and insurance fund managers, and by central bank directors. So any trades you might make are coming after them. They decide which way it goes, and so the best you can do is try to predict what they will do. It is rather like getting someone to give you odds on whether or not the evening weather forecasts are correct.
The value of a given security is not based just on the company balance sheet. It is based on what professional investors with billions of dollars at stake believe the company will be worth at some time in the future. And it is even more complicated than that because how far into the future they are looking depends on what interest rates are, and what they will be. And then since most of our economy is led by consumer demand, it depends on the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence level, and on how these things will change.
In putting money into these "markets", paying your homage to them, you are just following the actions of these large professional fund managers. So your buy and sell prices depend on what they have already done. You are just betting on whether or not what they did was right.
So admit that this is what you are doing, getting off on gambling and patting yourself on the back over it. People do just as well and have more fun by betting on professional sports.
And for the rest of us that have worthwhile skills, working with close associates and investing our time, energy, and money in our own doings, has lower risk and gives better returns because we are the ones actually at stake in it.
This is why Mom and Pop businesses, though not yielding the billions for those like Kleiner Perkins who can gamble with huge sums, they do yield for their principles much higher rates of return, and lower risks, plus the satisfaction of building community.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/…
Facts are when people invest in the overall stock market for any time period over 10 years, 20 years, etc. there is no better return on capital than any other asset class. Hedge funds and insurance managers are not leading this market! Just because you state that above doesn't mean you're correct. In fact it is the total opposite. Most investing is done on an institutional level regarding pensions and some insurance funds with a few hedge funds mixed because you have to be an elite investor to go to a hedge fund which most investors are not. You are really showing your true colors of ignorance in this post my dear friend, and your conspiracy theory shines the dimentia hidden in your agenda.
No matter what the time period since 1929, the Great Depression era. If you invested $1 that money would grow much better than any other allocation given a 10, 20, or 30 year time horizon. So are you planning on death in the front room of an AMP anytime soon? If so then invest in an AMP/brothel for your future.
Starting a business of your own, especially via working with professional associates you have known for some time, and especially if you are being flexible and are in it for the long run, has a hugely greater chance of success and a big payoff than any of these other financial securities. If the financial securities were that good, they'd all be bought up many times over already. As it stands now the odds are not that great of any of that stuff holding on to its present pricing.
" Hedge funds and insurance managers are not leading this market! Just because you state that above doesn't mean you're correct. In fact it is the total opposite. Most investing is done on an institutional level regarding pensions and some insurance funds with a few hedge funds mixed because you have to be an elite investor to go to a hedge fund which most investors are not."
You directly contradict yourself, institutional elite investors, this is indeed what leads the markets. So when you buy or sell, you are just betting on whether those guys predicted right or wrong. Maybe they did, maybe they did not. But what you are doing is just a glorified version of what people do in Las Vegas.
It is not a conspiracy, it is just people responsible for lots of money trying to get the most they can. Getting the small investors to buy in is one of those ways. It is no more of a conspiracy that Las Vegas is, constantly taking money off of people who want to think they are so so smart.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/…
That is nonsense.
Some very successful local entrepreneurs have become their own venture capitalists. They do this because they are worth so much money, more than $100Meg, that they can't any longer invest it in themselves and in their own doings. So they have to invest in other people. But they still maintain top level control.
But unless you are that rich, that you can't any longer invest the money in yourself, then you will always have better chances and better results if you invest your time, energy, talents, and money in yourself.
The stock market is a Ponzi scheme. It gets a bubble going, supported by all the little guys putting their money in. But then the amount of new money needed to maintain current pricing grows geometrically until the bubble eventually bursts. Then it drops down much lower than the peak. But then people start boosting for the next bubble.
You go along with that, its your money and your life. But I'm going to stay with what has better results and what is consistent with my own values and where even if I did lose money, I'd still be building up a community of very expert colleagues.
See you Meat72 in the afterlife.
SJG
https://sites.google.com/site/sjgportal/…
I like this music, and I like Beyoncé
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlxByc0-…
But, they digitally process the women's voices, heavily. I wish they wouldn't do this.